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CONFIDENTIAL— NGO use only No copy, forward or sale © INSO 2011 Issue 88 REPORT 16‐31 December 2011 Index COUNTRY SUMMARY Central Region 1-3 December has concluded with the likeli- a relatively steady level of activity, though 4-6 Northern Region hood that this month will break a 5 year this is in part due to a reorientation to- Western Region 7-8 trend in which the years ‘valley’ in AOG wards Jalalabad, a dynamic also seen this attributed incidents typically exceeds the time last year with efforts primarily focused Eastern Region 9-12 years previous. At the time of writing, this on an IED campaign. months volume accounts for a 36% de- Southern Region 13-16 With a single NGO incident reported this crease in comparison with 2010 (see graph ANSO Info Page 17 period, December has concluded with the p.12). Beyond the standard seasonal im- lowest monthly NGO incident volume this pacts, there are numerous factors that have year (see graph p.11), a typical dynamic as led to this, including a sustained focus by this month is traditionally one of the least HIGHLIGHTS international military forces on key AOG active for the NGO community. Of operational areas, efforts that in turn are course, there is an argument to be made Years lowest AOG inci‐ part of the broader strategic dynamics in- about the correlational relationship be- dent volumes volving transition and withdrawal. In addi- tween conflict volumes and NGO inci- tion, opposition forces have likely exhaust- dents as the summer months account for Years lowest NGO inci‐ ed their tactical capacity after engaging ear- the peaks of both figures. However, one dent volumes lier and stronger than is typical (with March must also take into consideration the fact of this year marking the first surge in activi- that the warmer months allow for greater IED acvity within Jala‐ ty as opposed to gradual increase leading to labad access, leading to a higher level of NGO a September peak in 2010) and maintaining movements and therefore increasing expo- record activity levels throughout the peak sure. The incident reported, from Farah in season. As well, in many provinces the the West, involved the abduction of a staff senior AOG leadership have departed for a member in transit and fits with that prov- winter break, likely in part to engage in the inces NGO incident trending this year, as ANSO is supported by planning process for the coming years op- 3 out of the 4 incidents from this province erations; the culmination of which would involved this type of event. be similar to this years Operation Badr. In addition, the first step in what appears to In light of the above, 2012 is likely to open be a forthright effort towards a relevant with a relatively low volume of manifested peace process are in motion (including the insecurity, in line with seasonal trends. opening of an IEA ‘embassy’ in Qatar), However, whether IMF/ANSF will be able though how this will play out, and to what to maintain this decrease into March and level it will impact the operational environ- April, in order to support their mandate to ment, remains to be seen. transition security from IMF to the GOA, remains to be seen. While intelligence driv- While the downturn in AOG activity has en IMF/ANSF operations are likely to in- been evident in most areas, particularly in crease—as may IMF/AOG cooperation— the overtly volatile South, some areas, such in order to demonstrate a secure Afghani- as Faryab and Sar-E Pul in the North and stan, 2011 has been an exceptionally vola- Ghor in the West, have been less affected tile year—December aside—and there is and have maintained more consistent, albe- little to guarantee that 2012 wont follow a it low, levels of AOG activity. In addition, similar deterioration. Nangarhar in the East has also maintained ANSO is a project of the International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO), a registered charity in England & Wales no.1140276 and a company limited by guarantee no.7496737 THE ANSO REPORT Page 1 C ENTRAL REGION ABUL NGO Incidents KABUL K Year to Date 10 50 This Report Period 0 As is the case throughout Central, 40 there was little of note to report dent elements involved responded 30 this period. At the time of writing with a fair amount of weapons 20 a single AOG incident was report- fire, both out of confusion and 10 ed involving the destruction of a fears that a complex attack was 0 power station in Surobi. ANP under way. search and seizure operations, of Also in the criminal realm, an at- both drugs and weapons, account- tempted robbery of a money ex- KABUL AOG KABUL Crime ed for the largest volume of inci- changer, also in PD 5, resulted in dents by type. There were also 2 his death and the wounding of a ar Province and has since been transferred into IED discoveries, the first in second individual who attempted the hands of an associated cross-border based Qarabagh and the second in Pa- to intercede. The 2 armed indi- AOG (involving a possible transaction of ghman. viduals responsible managed to money), ostensibly for the purposes of infor- Criminal acts in the city however escape the scene. mation gathering due to this individuals accounted for the most significant Finally, the abduction of the for- knowledge of various senior governmental incidents, including a drive by mer Attorney General in Chahar officials. While the veracity of this report can- shooting of the District 4 NDS Asyab on 6 October remains not be verified, one must also factor in the Chiefs’ vehicle and a grenade at- pending. Recent information sug- reality that this individual was unpopular in tack against the District 5 ANP gests that he was in fact abducted certain circles due to his anti-corruption stance HQ. Of note, in this latter inci- by an AOG operating out of Log- while in office. NGO Incidents KAPISA K APISA Year to Date 3 50 This Report Period 0 40 Kapisa was also considerably qui- et, with only 4 incidents reported one was an IED discovery and the 30 this period. The single AOG inci- second an arrest of an armed indi- 20 dent, involving an IED detona- vidual. 10 tion that damaged a bridge in Ko- Past trending suggests that this 0 histan, occurred along the low level of incident reporting will Mahmudi Raqi-Kohistan main continue at least until the spring of 2012, and will also likely con- road. The remainder of incidents, KAPISA AOG KAPISA Crime attributed to security forces, oc- tinue to be concentrated in the curred in either Alasay (1 IDF aforementioned districts. incident targeting AOG) or Tagab (2, both in Gada Khel). Of these, NOTICE: The graphs provided in the report are accurate as of the 28th of December 2011. THE ANSO REPORT Page 2 NGO Incidents an exercise in the projection of force; an effort P ANJSHIR Year to Date 2 to prove they can strike anywhere in the coun- This Report Period 0 try. However, due to the particularities of Pan- Panjshir has concluded the year jshir, such events are likely to remain outliers much as it began, with little of mains political and/or interper- and exceedingly rare in their occurrence. With note occurring. Considering the sonal disputes, though the com- the looming presidential elections (slated for total of 13 events recorded this plex attack against the PRT in 2014), political intrigue will probably continue year, the last being a narcotics mid-October unequivocally de- to be the key dynamic in the coming year, seizure on the 24th of November, notes the most significant event though this is also likely to continue to have this dearth of activity is not sur- for 2011. This is primarily due to only a limited impact on the relatively benign prising as the province remains its unprecedented scope, though NGO operating environment. the most consistently stable in the the fact that it occurred at all is of country. The primary driver be- as much import. As detailed in hind the incidents recorded re- the IEA claim, this was primarily B AMYAN NGO Incidents BAMYAN Year to Date 1 50 This Report Period 0 40 Arrests involving AOG leadership 30 associated with this province pro- pointed Bamyan Provincial Shad- vided the key security dynamic ow Governor (PSG) was also ar- 20 this period. rested, though this arrest occurred 10 The arrest by ANP of an AOG in the Northern Region. The ex- 0 commander in Kahmard, identi- act location is unknown at present as reports conflict, however it fied as being from Tala Wa Barfak BAMYAN AOG BAMYAN Crime in Baghlan, furthers previous as- seems most likely that he was tak- sessments that much of the recent en while in transit through activity has been authored by ex- Baghlan—though it is possible the AOG activity is traditionally so low in this ogenous AOG elements. In addi- trip originated in Mazar—and was province one would be hard pressed to assess tion, and possible related to apparently destined for Kahmard. the impact this new commander would have Baghlan as well, the newly ap- However, it is worth noting that had on the existing security paradigm. NGO Incidents DAYKUNDI D AYKUNDI Year to Date 0 50 This Report Period 0 40 Daykundi exists as a rarity in that it is one province which has not solve this issue, of late having a 30 reported a single NGO incident meeting with the head of the 20 ALP.