THE ANSO REPORT Page 1

CONFIDENTIAL— NGO use only No copy, forward or sale © INSO 2012

Issue 109 REPORT 1‐15 November 2012 Index COUNTRY SUMMARY Central Region 1-2 3-5 In the Central region, a three-day occupa- rural setting. In Farah, a GOA venue host- Northern Region tion of an INGO clinic by an ANA/IMF ing a meeting with IMF and NGO partici- Western Region 6-7 combat force in Wardak, occurring in late pants came under a hand-grenade attack, 8-10 October, highlighted the risks faced by the while a local AOG commander in Ghor, Eastern Region NGO community in areas undergoing owing to his known ambition to raise his Southern Region 11-13 ’clearing’ operations ahead of IMF with- personal profile in the community, sub- drawal. Whilst the sheer scope of the in- jected a well-accepted NGO to several acts ANSO Info Page 14 trusion - the clinic was used as a mortar of intimidation. The ring-road in Badghis firing base as well as a detention center - and Farah remained a hub for conflict ac- made the incident a clear outlier, it raises tivity; the former also underwent substan- HIGHLIGHTS concerns as to the level of ANSF account- tial transfers of authority from IMF to ability in the field post-transition. The high ANSF.  ANA & IMF occupy an pace of IMF withdrawals was apparent in NGO clinic in Wardak In the Eastern region, the number of the peripheral districts of Wardak and NGO incidents in Nangarhar exceeded the  NGO clinics robbed in Logar, although the pro-Government 20 mark, representing 16% of the current Kunduz and Herat forces significantly outpaced AOG opera- country-wide total for the year. A bold tions across the region, including the re-  Off-duty NGO de-miner AOG assassination of an off-duty NGO moval of key IEA commanders in de-miner in Sherzad and an abduction of assassinated in Nan- Ghorband and Kohi Safi (Parwan). garhar another NGO member in Bati Kot high- A similar reduction in AOG activity was lighted the risks of early morning move-  Civilian casualties in observed in the Northern region, with ments in the province, also casting doubt IED blasts in Kandahar and Helmand Faryab remaining the key contested area. on the ANSF capability to maintain control The province featured several high- over key access routes including the Tork- intensity conflict engagements. Further, ham-Jalalabad highway. In Kunar, where ANSO is supported by AOG tactical reliance on conventional the opposition maintained a high pace of close-range attacks, as opposed to lower- operations, including a failed BBIED at- risk stand-off tactics, served to demon- tack on the ANP counter-terrorism depart- strate their confidence. In the North-East, ment chief, an NGO field site was struck an NGO clinic was burgled in Kunduz, by stray RPG rounds during an AOG at- while in Badakhshan, ANP briefly detained tack on a passing ANA convoy. NGO staff following a local dispute with The Southern region did not see any an influential power-broker. The province changes to the NGO incident count, but witnessed a more significant police opera- recorded the largest share (34%) of AOG tion in Ishkashim, where an ANP/NDS activity country-wide. Despite this, virtu- unit tracked down a local commander at- ally all of its provinces exhibited a signifi- tempting to re-sell a Stinger missile. cant downturn in AOG activity. Prevalent Three out of four provinces in the trends included AOG reliance on close- Western region witnessed NGO incidents. range tactics in 54% of attacks region-wide, Two armed robberies were recorded in although IED activity exacted a significant Herat, whilst a third case involved an at- toll on the civilian population in Kandahar tempt by an ANSF commander to force an and Helmand whilst Kandahar city wit- INGO into renting his own vehicles in a nessed the tenth suicide attack this year.

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C ENTRAL REGION

ABUL NGO Incidents KABUL K Year to Date 14 50 This Report Period 0 Despite ANSF supremacy in the 40 capital - GOA forces authored on the 4th and the 13th, the latter 30 80% of all security incidents in case consisting of multiple projec- 20 Kabul city this cycle, primarily tiles which killed one civilian and 10 dealing with criminality - the op- injured two others in the Maslakhi 0 position managed to launch two area of PD 9. The attacks were rocket attacks towards the city, consistent with established pat- whilst sporadic AOG activity (6 terns both in terms of targeting KABUL AOG KABUL Crime attacks in total, primarily IEDs) (Airport and large ANSF/IMF was also reported from the main facilities) and their inaccuracy. section), further attest to the fact that the roads in the rural districts of From 2006 to 2010, AOG rocket threat from IDF has greatly decreased in the Paghman, Shakardara, Mir Bacha attacks averaged 16 a year, city over the last 2 years. In counterpoint, the Kot and Kalakan. whereas since 2011, such activity 13 civilian fatalities resulting from attacks of AOG rockets, attributed to net- has steadily declined - dropping this kind in the past seven years warrant works operating in Kohi Safi and from 10 in 2011 to the current 4 against complacency when selecting the loca- Deh Sabz, impacted in the vicinity in 2012. ANSF-IMF preventive tion of NGO premises and implementing site of the airport and ANSF facilities counter-measures such as seen security measures. in the north-east parts of Kabul this cycle in Kohi Safi (see Parwan

NGO Incidents Year to Date 7 WARDAK W ARDAK 70

This Report Period 1 60 rd On the night of 23 October, 50 IMF helicopters dropped a size- prominence last year with 16 cases 40 able ANA detail, accompanied by recorded since January 2011, 30 an IMF special forces unit, to Se- mostly in Nangarhar, Logar and 20 wak in Chaki Wardak, apparently Kunar provinces. The latest case, 10 0 to ‘clear’ the area. During the however, stands out for the total next three days, the security forces disrespect shown for the sanctity of the clinic and its staff. It re- occupied an INGO clinic in the WARDAK AOG WARDAK Crime location, using the facility as a mains to be seen if the rate and detention center but also as a severity of such incidents will in- and Nirkh attracted every second AOG escala- mortar firing base throughout crease with the security transition. tion - while the remainder consisted mainly of several engagements with AOG. Along with an increased pace of stand-off attacks against the district adminis- The forces departed on the 25th IMF-ANSF operations in Chaki trative centers, with Jaghatu DAC notching 6 with 6 suspected AOG members Wardak and Saydabad, the cycle such attacks alone. Besides marking the high in custody, leaving behind a dam- featured IMF withdrawals from morale of local AOG cadres following the de- aged perimeter wall and equip- Jalrez, Nirkh and Jaghatu - with parture of IMF, the AOG effort in Jaghatu was ment, as well as an amount of live only small-scale IMF teams re- partly a response to the on-going talks among ammunition and UXOs. The af- maining in situ embedded with local elders and the GOA about their eventual fected INGO has lodged a formal ANSF. reconciliation, and the roll-out of the ALP pro- complaint with the GOA. In contrast, the opposition au- gram in the district. This would suggest that Although Wardak has not wit- thored 65% of the security inci- the current frequency of conflict engagements nessed forceful breaches of medi- dents in Wardak this cycle. Two in Jaghatu is likely to be maintained in the cal facilities by ANSF/IMF since thirds were attacks along the main short term. 2009, such incidents rose to roads - the highway in Saydabad THE ANSO REPORT Page 2

NGO Incidents P ARWAN Year to Date 2 PARWAN 50 This Report Period 0 Despite the seasonal decline, the 40 Parwan-Bamyan road continued the duties of the IEA provincial 30 to attract early-morning AOG shadow governor in Parwan. 20 attacks on police targets. An IED Nonetheless, his removal will do little to reverse the expansion of 10 blast and a SAF attack resulted in 0 a total of five casualties – four AOG influence sustained over the policemen and a civilian – on the course of this year. Most recently, the IMF withdrawal from Kah- road this cycle. Off the main ar- PARWAN AOG PARWAN Crime tery, the opposition networks in mard district in Bamyan - located along the main access route from Ghorband suffered a serious set- ing season. back, when during another SAF southern Baghlan - was reflected attack on an ALP checkpoint in upon locally as another chance for Elsewhere in the province, an IMF surgical Taykhan, a key IEA commander the opposition, entrenched north airstrike killed another prominent IEA com- sustained fatal injuries. Besides of Salang in Baghlan, to maintain mander in the Pachakhak area of Kohi Safi, his military leadership, the com- significant access between Bagh- known for his involvement in IDF attacks in mander was known to perform lan and Parwan for the next fight- Kabul and Bagram districts.

NGO Incidents KAPISA K APISA Year to Date 2 50 This Report Period 0 40 Although security reporting re- mained scarce this cycle, ANSF Omarkhel), which ultimately re- 30 clearing operations and three sulted in a combined 24 AOG, 20 AOG attacks attested to the high five ANA and five civilian casual- 10 ties. intensity of conflict engagements 0 in Tagab, underlined further by Meanwhile, the international mili- the heavy toll of civilian injuries tary slowed down the pace of (13) and deaths (4) which ensued. their withdrawal compared to the KAPISA AOG KAPISA Crime From the 4th to the 7th, joint ANA, plans outlined earlier this year, and remained low-key, as did NDS and ANP teams deployed to ments with ANSF, while a significant portion the known AOG hubs along the most of the opposition - the latter initiating only two direct engage- of AOG fighters seem to have relocated in Tagab-Surobi road (Anarjoy, advance of winter.

NGO Incidents L OGAR Year to Date 6 LOGAR This Report Period 0 50 AOG activity volumes remained 40 and pro-active deployments into very low this cycle, amounting to 30 a handful of combined small AOG hotspots such as Baraki 20 arms/heavy weapons attacks on Rajan, Babus or Kolangar. ANSF security facilities in Baraki Barak demonstrated their capability in 10 and Kharwar, and two IED blasts Kharwar with an ANA-ANP- 0 in Puli Alam and Baraki Barak. NDS operation in the Yargul area on the 5th, during which 5 AOG ANSF/IMF dominated the cycle fighters were eliminated and an LOGAR AOG LOGAR Crime with at least 16 incidents, includ- additional 7 arrested. IMF with- ing several comprehensive ground drawals from Charkh and Khar- stay-behind IMF contingent remains present in operations (Kharwar, Puli Alam, war were completed this period the district center. IMF withdrawal from pe- Baraki Barak) and airstrikes and are expected to be followed ripheral areas has been seen locally as a signifi- (Baraki Barak). This activity was by the end of month by with- cant factor driving conflict de-escalation. split between interdiction opera- drawal from Baraki Barak, where a tions in the population centers THE ANSO REPORT Page 3

N ORTHERN REGION

NGO Incidents K UNDUZ Year to Date 3 KUNDUZ 50 This Report Period 1 On 5 November at 2300 hours, an 40 NGO clinic in Sanduqsai area, network. 30 Khanabad district, was robbed by Elsewhere across the province, 20 several armed men. The NGO has there were a total of six AOG- 10 received support from the local initiated incidents during the past 0 shura and GOA officials, however fortnight, with two AOG escala- the identity of the perpetrators tions each recorded in Kunduz, has not been established. Al- Archi, and Chahar Dara districts, KUNDUZ AOG KUNDUZ Crime though the majority of the stolen the majority being low-level AOG items consisted of food stuffs and engagements of ANSF check- AOG-initiated incidents per month. However canned oil, the timing of the inci- points and assets. The mentioned AOG activity in the province has been de- dent —following distribution of three districts have accounted for creasing over the past year, with a 21% reduc- the items from an IO—and the 86% of all AOG activity in the tion in AOG activity from this period last year. perpetrators’ use of trucks indi- province so far this year. Criminal activity has also decreased, with 14% cate that the robbery was pre- fewer incidents against the volumes last year. planned. Though the area has not At the current pace, November is likely to see a reduction in AOG Interestingly, these reductions have occurred experienced much criminal activ- concurrently with a significant reduction in ity, a Khanabad-based business- activity consistent with seasonal trends, as the fighting season IMF and ANSF activity. IMF activity fell 68% man was abducted in the previous from last year, while ANSF activity in 2012 month, which may indicate the months (May through October) saw between 30% and 60% more dropped a more modest 12% compared with presence of an emerging criminal figures through mid-November last year.

NGO Incidents B ADAKHSHAN Year to Date 7 BADAKHSHAN This Report Period 1 50 Security reporting from the prov- 40 On 5 November in Baharak dis- ince included a late report of an 30 trict center, ANP and NDS at- NGO incident. On 19 October in 20 Kishim district center, four NGO tempted to arrest a local com- mander trying to sell an old 10 staff members were detained fol- 0 lowing an external dispute be- Stinger anti-aircraft missile. The tween an influential local elder man—who managed to escape— and a non-staff driver of a vehicle is an ex-Mujahidin commander, BADAKHSHAN AOG BADAKHSHAN Crime that had been previously rented by who has recently served as a low- Three AOG incidents occurred in Jurm dis- the NGO. Although no charges level ANBP commander in Ba- trict, bringing the total recorded so far this year were filed, ANP searched the harak and Ishkashim districts. to seven. Two consisted of SAF attacks on NGO premises and detained four This ANBP position was secured ANP patrols in Kharendab and Soch areas; the NGO staff. Three of the four through family connections, and latter area also witnessed a day-time AOG NGO staff were detained for four may have been an attempt to pro- checkpoint and searches of local vehicles for nights, while one of the staff vide official “cover” for his smug- GOA employees. This sudden spate in AOG members was detained for one gling operations. NDS were able activity will likely remain a temporary outlier as night. The event was the first re- to recover the missile., which is the majority of AOG escalations occur in the ported ANSF detention of NGO reported to be a relic from the neighboring Warduj district. staff in the province. 1980s war with the Soviet Union. THE ANSO REPORT Page 4

NGO Incidents F ARYAB Year to Date 6 FARYAB This Report Period 0 60 An IO national staff member re- 50 ported receiving a threatening age figures as seen earlier this year 40 phone call on 10 November, 1000 prior to the onset of the main 30 hours, while at his private resi- ‘fighting season’, as April through 20 dence in Dashian village, May- August averaged 28 AOG attacks 10 mana district. The caller, who per month, slightly higher than 0 claimed to represent an AOG, the average of 25 AOG incidents

demanded payment from the IO per month from January through FARYAB AOG FARYAB Crime staff member. The targeted na- April. In contrast, September and ture of the incident—calling a October were much more kinetic, AOG activity in Faryab, of which four inci- national staff member at his house with an average of 50 AOG at- dents were suicide attacks. and demanding payment from the tacks per month. AOG tactics Faryab has also witnessed three targeted kill- individual—suggests that a purely continued to feature direct attacks ings during the past fortnight, with two assas- criminal motive cannot be ruled consisting of SAF and/or RPGs, sinations of local religious leaders in Maymana out. including in all but one AOG inci- city (7 and 10 November), and the killing of a dent this reporting cycle and have Throughout the province, 22 inci- former AOG commander in Sabz Posh district accounted for 78% of all AOG dents occurred during this report- on 6 November. While these incidents cer- activity so far this year. Although ing cycle, which included 15 tainly affect local power dynamics and reflect a AOGs in other provinces may AOG-initiated incidents. The plethora of local competing interests, they rely on IEDs as a primary tactic, pace of incidents during the past represent minimal residual risk to NGOs. fortnight reflects a return to aver- they account for only 15% of

NGO Incidents S AMANGAN Year to Date 1 SAMANGAN This Report Period 0 50 Only three incidents occurred in 40 however, seriously damaged 23 Samangan this reporting period. 30 fuel and liquid gas tankers. Much Whilst two were criminally- 20 motivated shootings, the third more common to Dushi, Khinjan, and Puli Khumri districts of 10 incident was an AOG-initiated 0 IED detonation. neighboring Baghlan, AOG IED attacks on IMF-contracted fuel Past midnight on 15 November, tankers represent outliers in the SAMANGAN AOG SAMANGAN Crime an RCIED detonated against a province. AOG activity in private fuel tanker in Aybak dis- Samangan has been limited to 13 Criminal activity is more prevalent than politi- trict, Robatak area, parked along incidents so far this year, half of cal conflict in Samangan, with 36 criminal inci- the Aybak-Puli Khumri road. The them occurring in Darai Sufi Pay- dents having occurred so far this year. While blast also damaged another pri- een, whilst only the two men- one third of these incidents could be attributed vate fuel tanker as well as a refrig- tioned IED attacks took place on to interpersonal or tribally-motivated disputes, erated truck contracted by IMF. the ring-road. an equal share of criminal activity was the re- The trucks were parked on the The criminal shootings occurred sult of robbery. These robberies—of which side of the road for the night, and 81% occurred in Aybak and Dara-I Sufi Payan no casualties were reported. The on 4 November from Golaye Hi- sar in the lower Darai Suf, where districts—seem to affect random targets, detonation marked the first AOG- mostly civilians. The only case impacting initiated incident since the night an armed group shot and killed a former policeman, and on 10 No- NGOs this year occurred in July in Aybak of 18 July, when a magnetic IED when an armed group tracked and robbed an detonated against an IMF- vember from Khwaja Praisham of Hazrati Sultan where another per- NGO party transporting a large amount of contracted truck at the same loca- cash to a project site. tion. The resulting explosion, sonal dispute led to two casualties.

NOTICE: The graphs provided in the report are accurate as of 14 November 2012 THE ANSO REPORT Page 5

NGO Incidents S AR- E PUL Year to Date 2 SAR‐E PUL This Report Period 0 50 The past fortnight witnessed a 40 total of five total incidents in the Shibirghan-Sari Pul Road, Sa 30 province, of which four were at- Shanba area, Sari Pul district— wounding the district governor 20 tributed two AOG activity. All of 10 which involved brief attacks on and his bodyguard. 0 GOA or ANSF targets using SAF Although Sari Pul district contin- and/or RPGs—the most com- ues to account for the majority mon AOG tactic in the province, (59%) of AOG incidents this year, SAR‐E PUL AOG SAR‐E PUL Crime accounting for more than two- there have been considerable thirds of all AOG incidents. The shifts in neighboring districts. east, however. Sozma Qala has experienced 15 most significant AOG attack oc- Thus far, there have been only AOG incidents so far this year, while com- curred at 0700 hours on 10 No- five AOG incidents in Sayyad dis- bined AOG activity in 2011 and 2010 totaled vember, when an AOG fired an trict in 2012, dropping 86% from only ten incidents, with the Kata Qala area RPG at the Sozma Qala’s vehicle the previous year. AOG activity standing out with 80% of these incidents this while it was traveling along the appears to be increasing further year.

NGO Incidents B AGHLAN Year to Date 3 BAGHLAN This Report Period 0 50 IEDs continue to be a major con- 40 cern in Baghlan province, with 17 defusing 79 IEDs so far this year, IED-related incidents (including representing a 54% increase from 30 IEDs defused by IMF/ANSF) last year. With ANSF undertaking 20 during the past two weeks. Of 85% of EOD operations, this ca- 10 those, eight were actual IED deto- pability will remain following IMF 0 nations—bringing this year’s total withdrawal from the province.

to 82 IED detonations in the Baghlani Jadid district continues BAGHLAN AOG BAGHLAN Crime province. Although IED strikes to report the highest concentra- have remained relatively constant tion of IED activity in Baghlan, for 85% of IEDs in each year. NGOs have since early June, the total number accounting for 52% of all IEDs only been targeted on one occasion since 2007, of IED detonations this year in the province, whilst Puli however, with an IED detonation against a marks a 68% increase compared Khumri accounts for 28%. De- parked NGO vehicle in Tala Wa Barfak on 19 to the equivalent period in 2011. spite having significantly fewer June 2012. IMF/ANSF EOD operations IED incidents in 2011 and 2010, have also dramatically increased, these two districts still accounted

NGO Incidents B ALKH Year to Date 5 BALKH 50 This Report Period 0 Two of the 11 incidents during 40 this reporting period were AOG AOG incidents that have oc- 30 curred in the district from 2006 attacks on the Dawlatabad district 20 administrative center, occurring at through 2011. Since 2006, the 10 1900 and 2300 hours on 3 and 10 district center has been targeted November, respectively. In both six times, but three of these inci- 0 instances, RPGs were fired at the dents have occurred this year.— administrative center but deto- the two RPG attacks and a 6 Au- BALKH AOG BALKH Crime nated mid-air without causing gust IED strike unsuccessfully damage. There have been 12 targeting the district governor. mal damage, they are likely to have boosted the AOG-initiated incidents in Daw- It appears that AOGs are attempt- confidence of the AOG to operate there. More latabad thus far this year. Though ing to expand their influence to- attacks in the near future cannot be ruled out, there are six weeks remaining in wards the district center, and al- although the AOG is still more likely to attack 2012, this figure already equals all though these attacks caused mini- during evening hours. THE ANSO REPORT Page 6

W ESTERN REGION

NGO Incidents H ERAT Year to Date 11 HERAT 50 This Report Period 3 NGOs faced two robberies and 40

an extortion-oriented act of in- larly in the city and its immediate 30 timidation this reporting period, periphery. Further, the robberies with one robbery and the intimi- involving taxi schemes feature 20 dation occurring in peripheral quite prominently into IO and 10 districts while another robbery NGO risk profiles in Herat and 0 was reported from the provincial Kabul city, in particular along the capital. airport roads as well as in the vi- HERAT AOG HERAT Crime In the Deh Naw of Guzara, two cinity of banks and market areas. armed robbers broke into an Lastly, an ANBP officer—former INGO clinic overnight, restrained AOG member who has joined the DAC in July 2012. the guard and stole an assortment APRP and since reintegrated into In terms of overall AOG activity, the 12 AOG of office equipment and a motor- ANBP—made unspecified threats incidents across the province matched last cycle. to an INGO, warning them to month’s volume. Of note to NGOs, all the Meanwhile, an INGO national rent several of his vehicles for attacks were targeted against ANP, ANBP and staff member traveling in a taxi in their operations in Pashtun Zar- IMF, underlying the primary mitigation meas- Herat’s PD7 was robbed of his ghun. Herat-based NGOs and ures - a safe distance from security targets - for cash and phone in by two armed IOs have experienced only one the safety of NGO operations. The territorial men, in a scheme in which the taxi other documented ANSF-initiated pattern also remained consistent with almost driver was complicit. It is im- incident this year, when a group half of the total AOG attacks staged in Shin- portant to note that unlike the including ANP policemen and dand (DAC and the IMF airport base) On a seasonal reduction in AOG activ- GOA officials stole IO food items positive note, AOG attacks were absent in ity, criminal activity does not drop stocked in a GOA food item Herat city, Injil and Guzara. during the winter months, particu- warehouse in Pashtun Zarghun

NGO Incidents B ADGHIS Year to Date 2 BADGHIS This Report Period 0 60 After peaking at 54 AOG inci- 50 Meanwhile, the IMF have com- dents last month, AOG activity 40 began a seasonal decline, with just pleted a transfer of authority in all 30 20 AOG incidents recorded this districts except for Ghormach, 20 cycle—a reduction of nearly 30% with ANSF now assuming re- 10 compared to the previous cycle. sponsibility for Jawand, Qadis, 0 90% of AOG attacks took place Murghab, and Muqur. It is im- in Ghormach, Murghab, and portant to note, however, that the Qadis districts, aiming exclusively transition ceremonies were pri- BADGHIS AOG BADGHIS Crime at ANSF targets. The aggressive marily symbolic, since the major- posture of local AOG has been ity of IMF combat forces have enced one insider attack when an ANA mem- demonstrated with the fact that already gradually withdrawn over ber shot and wounded an IMF soldier at the every third AOG attack led to the past several months, IMF base in Muqur marking only the second ANSF casualties, with a total of thoughIMF support units remain such event in the province for the past six 26 personnel injured or killed this present in key areas in Muqur and years. The perpetrator was killed in the inci- cycle (though no civilian deaths Murghab. dent, and his primary motivations have not have been recorded). The province nonetheless experi- been established. THE ANSO REPORT Page 7

NGO Incidents G HOR Year to Date 11 GHOR This Report Period 1 50 This cycle, an INGO reported a 40 to compel NGOs to register with series of intimidation efforts in 30 Taywara. The case began with a them in the area. In counterpoint, 20 letter sent by a local AOG com- the commander who initiated the mander loosely associated with campaign is known for his previ- 10 the IEA, requesting the INGO to ous intimidation of NGOs in Tay- 0 register with the IEA in exchange wara, including another night- for “protection”, although the letter campaign targeting three GHOR AOG GHOR Crime request did not provide any fur- individual NGOs in October last ther specification as to the regis- year which did include the threat international staff member in Chaghcharan tration authority and the process. of violence, but it never material- City and the June 2012 assassination of an ex- A few days later, this was followed ized. Instead, they were assessed Provincial Judge–attacked a checkpoint affili- by two incidences of ‘harassing as the commander’s attempt at ated with a pro-government militia loyal to the SAF’ reported on two separate boosting his influence in the area deceased Provincial Judge, in the latest round occasions by two national staffers and were resolved without con- of local complex tribal disputes which interplay (one volley in the vicinity of the cessions from the NGOs. It ap- with the political conflict. first staffer’s private residence and pears plausible that this latest the other recorded by the other round stems from a similar moti- Tribal insecurity also affected the western part member during transit between vation as, throughout the cam- of Chaghcheran, where a theft of several don- home and work). Afterwards, paign, there was no record of a keys in Seya Kharak area sparked a tribal clash other letters—indicating specific hostility or rejection towards the which lead to a number of casualties. Of note, threats of violence—were deliv- NGO programming or presence. the elders of the two competing tribes had rati- ered to the private residences of Elsewhere, an AOG from north- fied a peace agreement during the last cycle, the two staffers. It is important to ern Chaghcheran with links to the but the arrangement visibly failed to gain the note that there have been no pre- Murghab Valley—responsible for full support of either tribe as it also did not vious cases of the IEA attempting the May 2012 killing of an INGO include a third key group.

NGO Incidents F ARAH Year to Date 4 FARAH 100 This Report Period 1 The past fortnight experienced 80 IMF and GOA leadership is one NGO incident, when a hand 60 therefore most likely to have trig- grenade was thrown into the com- 40 pound of the Provincial Depart- gered the incident. ment of MRRD, where members At the provincial level, AOG 20 of the PRT, the GOA, a private maintained consistent activity vol- 0 development organization (PDO), umes in the provincial capital, as IOs, and an NGO had gathered well as in the peripheral districts for an inter-agency conference of Pusht Rod and Qala-I-Kah FARAH AOG FARAH Crime and were just leaving the building. (where the opposition ambushed The grenade caused severe injuries and killed the district NDS chief allocation of resources on the side of AOGs. to one PDO staff member and this cycle), but the rate of AOG AOG carried out seven attacks in Bakwa, of minor injuries to three others. attacks continued to slow down in which four directly targeted IMF supply con- The presence of the IMF protec- key areas in Bala Buluk and Khaki voys along the Herat-Kandahar highway, re- tion unit at the entrance gate dur- Safed, where only two AOG inci- sulting in the destruction of 16 fuel tankers as ing the meeting significantly af- dents were recorded (against 10 well as several PSC vehicles. In response to fected the compound’s profile— during the last cycle). Whilst win- this shift, ANSF and IMF conducted several indicating that an important meet- ter migrations of AOG cells partly operations along the highway killing a number ing was taking place. In the ab- explain this decrease, the conflict of AOG operatives. It appears likely that the sence of other indicators, the as- visibly intensified in Bakwa this conflict will remain entrenched along the high- sociation of the venue with the cycle, eventually indicating a re- way in Bakwa into the coming weeks. THE ANSO REPORT Page 8

E ASTERN REGION

NGO Incidents N ANGARHAR Year to Date 22 NANGARHAR This Report Period 2 100 Two significant incidents im- 80 pacted NGO members in transit member was abducted from a taxi 60 this period. by armed men, who had driven 40 alongside it and forced it to stop First, on 8 November at 0500 hrs, 20 as it approached the Torkham – in Sherzad, an NGO national staff 0 member was travelling to Jala- Jalalabad highway, en route to the labad in a taxi when it was provincial capital. The staff mem- stopped by AOG members, who ber was one of several passengers NANGARHAR AOG NANGARHAR Crime then singled him out to be in the vehicle and as such it is Bati Kot, particularly along its stretch of the searched. Upon discovering that clear that he was expressly tar- Torkham-Jalalabad highway, where AOG he was carrying an NGO ID card, geted, although the identity of the members staged attacks against three ANP they accused him of being a GOA armed men, and their motive, is patrols and one ANP checkpoint during the and US agent, and shot and killed yet to be established. There have period. Whilst of these five incidents, the at- him. In light of the nature of been no previous incidents of tack on the checkpoint was the only one to their accusations, it is unlikely that NGOs being targeted by armed occur within the hours of 0900 and 1500 (the his employment by an NGO had groups in the district in this man- advised period for NGO road travel), of the 36 any bearing on the AOG mem- ner, which suggests either that the incidents recorded along the district’s stretch bers’ decision to target him in staff member, as in the Sherzad of the highway in total so far this year, 17 fell itself, which, given that they shooting, was targeted by ele- within this window, which is instructive of the searched him specifically, was ments of the armed opposition – armed opposition’s increasing confidence in seemingly premeditated. Instead, on the grounds that they believed the area and the absence, so far, of ANSF ca- it is plausible that the NGO iden- him to be in some way affiliated pability to hold the terrain overlooking the tification, which may have ap- with the GOA or IMF – or that highway. This situation is unlikely to improve peared alien, served to confirm the abduction was motivated pri- in the medium term and as such, NGO access already held suspicions (the initial marily by financial gain or a pri- both to Bati Kot, and to those districts that lie foundations of which are unclear). vate dispute. Regardless, the inci- dent is yet further evidence of the along the highway beyond it (Shinwar and Second, on 10 November at 0700 worsening security situation in Muhmand Dara) will remain problematic. hrs, in Bati Kot, an NGO staff

NGO Incidents PAKTYA P AKTYA Year to Date 2 50 This Report Period 0 With the onset of winter, and the 40 relocation of several AOG cells to saw two IED detonations against 30 neighbouring provinces in which ANP and IMF vehicles, Ahmada- 20 seasonal conditions pose less of a bad, where an IED detonated 10 prematurely, and Zurmat, where logistical challenge to their opera- 0 tions, AOG activity has declined AOG members staged two direct in recent weeks, with the number attacks on ANP targets. of AOG incidents falling consis- In the other development of note, PAKTYA AOG PAKTYA Crime tently across the last three periods, Gardez city, along with Ahmada- from 14 to nine and then to five bad, transitioned to ANSF con- as in Chamkanay, Jaji, Ahmed Khel, Jani Khel in the current cycle. Those few trol. IMF will continue to main- and Zurmat – and is unlikely to cease operat- AOG incidents that did occur tain a presence in the wider ing in Ahmadabad entirely. were limited to Gardez, which Gardez district however – as well THE ANSO REPORT Page 9

NGO Incidents K HOST Year to Date 9 KHOST This Report Period 0 100 Whilst the level of AOG activity 80 fell during the period – amounting activity in Khost so far this year. 60 This amounts to a significant shift to an 18% decrease in AOG inci- 40 in AOG tactics in comparison to dents in comparison to the second 20 the same period last year, during half of October – it nonetheless 0 proved to be one of the most which 52% of AOG incidents casualty heavy in recent months, were IED detonations, whilst the majority of which were civil- 28% were indirect fire (IDF) at- KHOST AOG KHOST Crime ians. tacks such as rockets or mortars In Khost district, 10 civilians were (the vast majority of which were ume, such as the SVBIED attack on the injured, one of whom later died, against the Sahrah Bagh IMF Salerno IMF base on 1 June. base), compared to only 3% in when an IED, attached to a bicy- Consistent with its status as of one of the most 2012. The drop in IDF can be cle, detonated. The target of the kinetic districts in the province, Sabari re- understood as further evidence of attack is believed to have been a corded both the largest proportion of AOG the armed opposition's engage- former IMF contractor, who was incidents (eight in total) and the highest num- ment in an economy of force ef- among the injured, and was there- ber of casualties. First, on 7 November, an fort – in line with a sharp decrease fore most likely instigated by the IED detonated against an Afghan Security in the total volume of AOG inci- armed opposition. Guard vehicle (ASG), killing two ASG person- dents when compared to January nel and injuring two others; this was followed Although the total number of to November 2011, from 232 to by IED detonations against an IMF vehicle on IED detonations has decreased in 86 – by which it focuses its re- 8 November, injuring two IMF solders, and comparison to the same period in sources upon operations which against a private vehicle on 11 November, 2011, from 121 to 62, they have are greater in impact than in vol- accounted for 75% of all AOG killing six civilians.

L AGHMAN NGO Incidents LAGHMAN Year to Date 3 50 This Report Period 0 Although the overall volume of 40 incidents remained broadly con- fact become increasingly volatile. 30 sistent with the previous period, Particularly in the light of the re- 20 cently established presence of the there was a sharp reduction in 10 Haqqani Network in the district. AOG activity, with the number of 0 AOG incidents dropping from 12 In Mehtarlam itself, AOG mem- to five. bers fired a rocket round towards The first half of the month was the PRT. Whilst the attack LAGHMAN AOG LAGHMAN Crime not without incidents of note proved entirely ineffectual – the however. On 8 November, at rocket missed and impacted in an civilian vehicle as it was travelling along the 0800 hrs, in Badpakh, an IED open area – it is nonetheless in- district’s stretch of the Kabul – Jalalabad high- detonation against an ANA vehi- dicative of the armed opposition’s way, killing two of its occupants. Attacks cle killed five ANA soldiers and undiminished intent to strike tar- along this section of the road are not uncom- injured another. The incident is gets in and around the provincial mon, with 24 having been recorded so far this the most casualty heavy to be re- capital, with the number of such year, though in all of these incidents, the corded in the district so far this operations having near doubled in armed opposition was responsible and the tar- year, which whilst having origi- comparison to the same period gets were GOA or ANSF actors, not civilians. nally been established in an area last year. As such, this recent episode marks a clear de- that was previously part of Me- Meanwhile in Qarghayi, on 4 No- parture from established trends and is there- htarlam, in an effort to improve vember at 1900 hrs, as yet uniden- fore likely to remain an isolated case. the security situation there, has in- tified gunmen opened fire on a

ACRONYMS: Please see the final page for a list of ANSO-utilized acronyms. THE ANSO REPORT Page 10

NGO Incidents URISTAN Year to Date 0 NURISTAN N 50 This Report Period 0 Nuristan recorded six AOG inci- 40 dents during the period. The massed assaults – they have 30 highest proportion of which oc- proven unable to overrun it; their 20 curred in Kamdesh, where AOG likely intention given that no at- 10 cells continued to harry ANSF tacks against the DAC were re- 0 and GOA targets in the DAC corded in 2011. area, by way of two rocket attacks Nonetheless, the six AOG attacks and two at close range with heavy this period are already in excess of NURISTAN AOG NURISTAN Crime weapons and SAF, injuring three the five incidents recorded in No- ANP policemen in all. Despite vember 2011 as a whole. Whilst suggest that further AOG activity - in Kam- the effort that the armed opposi- this is not especially revealing in desh in particular - can be expected before the tion has expended in attacking the itself, the fact that 17 attacks were end of the month, despite the seasonal decline. DAC so far this year – amounting recorded in October (compared to to 16 operations, including several only one in October 2011),

NGO Incidents Year to Date 8 KUNAR K UNAR 160 This Report Period 1 140 On 5 November, AOG attacked a 120 believed to have been moved to 100 passing ANA convoy in the 80 Panjshir Naw area of Nurgal dis- Nuristan’s Kamdesh district, 60 where he continues to be held. At 40 trict (Kunar) with heavy weapons 20 and SAF. Several of the rounds the time of the incident, the offi- 0 missed and instead impacted on cial was carrying a substantial sum the opposite bank of the Kunar of money. It remains unclear whether or not the AOG mem- River, which runs parallel to the KUNAR AOG KUNAR Crime road, in Kuz Kunar (Nangarhar), bers were aware of the official’s where a number of NGO staff involvement in the NSP, but members were continuing work given that this is the first time in found to be wearing a suicide vest, which was on the construction of a water the district that an individual or subsequently safely removed from his body by irrigation channel, though no organisation connected to it has an IMF EOD team. The incident follows the casualties were reported. The been affected by an incident of targeted killings of the head of Kunar’s Peace incident was evidently entirely this kind, it seems likely at this and Reintegration Council on 6 April, and of collateral in nature and an exten- stage that it was an act of oppor- three IMF soldiers, and a US government offi- sion of the manifest insecurity in tunism, motivated by the amount cial, on 8 August, in both cases by BBIED Nurgal, rather than a reflection of of money that he had in his pos- operatives. Accordingly, whilst this recent at- the security environment in Kuz session. As such, the abduction is tack failed, it is nonetheless indicative of the Kunar, which otherwise continues currently assessed to be unrelated armed opposition’s continued capability to to be characterised by relative sta- to the NSP in itself and therefore stage operations of this kind and suggests that bility. not reflective of an elevation in further attempts are to be expected. In the wider provincial conflict, the level of risk posed to those IMF activity was predominantly concentrated AOG activity remained broadly involved with it, including NGOs, in Wata Pur during the period, in the form of consistent with the previous pe- more broadly. four airstrikes – a figure on a par with the riod, though two incidents stood Second, on 12 November, an number recorded in August, which had previ- out in particular. AOG member opened fire on the ously been the single most airstrike intensive month in the year. Unlike those in August First, on 1 November, in Ghazia- head of the ANP provincial counter-terrorism department. In however, which killed a total of 34 AOG bad, AOG members abducted a members, this latest wave proved less effective, GOA official attached to the Na- the event, the attacker was the only fatality, who was killed when killing four AOG members and in one in- tional Solidarity Programme in stance, three civilians. Nuristan; he is subsequently the official, who was injured, re- turned fire. The attacker was later THE ANSO REPORT Page 11

S OUTHERN REGION

NGO Incidents KANDAHAR K ANDAHAR Year to Date 4 140 This Report Period 0 120 The frequency of security inci- 100 80 dents (all authors) in Kandahar detonated in this time and loca- 60 Province has continued to drop tion inadvertently, as it was inter- 40 this reporting period, to approxi- dicted by an impromptu ANP 20 0 mately three incidents per day; the checkpoint. average from the last two months On 3 November, another notable being roughly seven per day. security incident occurred when a KANDAHAR AOG KANDAHAR Crime Early morning on 8 November District Chief of Police was killed an AOG SVBIED detonated in a coordinated AOG attack in cials have been assassinated, most prominently against a mobile ANP checkpoint the Gorgan area of Dand District; including the SVBIED on Kandahar Chief of next to Yarana Market in District en route to an ANP post, AOG Police in late August 2012 (causing non-fatal 4, killing three ANP policemen members riding on motorbikes injuries to the official). and wounding four civilians. This fired at the ANP commander’s marked the tenth suicide attack in vehicle, killing him outright. His The lethal aspects of AOG IED activity tran- Kandahar City this year, and the deputy and another ANP officer spired through a tragic incident in Maywand ninth SVBIED. Usually suicide were wounded. Responding to where a civilian mini-van drove onto an IED attacks target high profile the incident, ANP killed six AOG in the morning of 11 November in Malang GOA/ANSF figures or IMF fa- members. Kandahar Province has Karez, with eight passengers perishing in the cilities in ‘spectacular attacks’. long witnessed an AOG blast. Road side IED attacks constituted 42% This was not a 'spectacular' attack ‘decapitation’ strategy, in which of all AOG incidents recorded in Kandahar as such, and was assessed to have senior ANSF commanders offi- this period.

NGO Incidents H ELMAND Year to Date 0 HELMAND This Report Period 0 140 On 4 November ANP arrested 120 five AOG members wearing ALP seizure there were five times as 100 many victim operated IEDs as 80 uniforms in Nad Ali District, after 60 they had found 15 pressure-plate there were RCIEDs, which sug- 40 IEDs (PPIEDs) and constituent gests that the emphasis is on 20 parts for three Remote Control batch production of low-tech 0 IEDs (RCIEDs) in their vehicle. PPIEDs, and more economic uses for RCIEDs. Of the 78 docu- The incident highlighted the di- HELMAND AOG HELMAND Crime versity of AOG IED operations mented IED detonations in Hel- in Helmand Province, but also the mand over the past three months the constructed IEDs through ANSF check- suspicion of ALP units. only 14% were RCIED-initiated, points. This high-risk deception strategy was, whilst 84% were victim operated. nonetheless, frustrated by ANP suspicion. Firstly, two different IED tech- One such device detonated on 8 The sheer fact that the ALP members were nologies were seized in the same November in Toghi area of Musa searched is indicative that suspicions between discovery: PPIEDs and RCIEDs. Qala against a civilian mini-van, ANSF service personnel remain; although not The PPIEDs are indiscriminate killing ten and wounding seven being as widely reported as 'Green-on-Blue' and therefore incur a much higher aboard. Secondly, the incident is attacks (11 incidents in Helmand this year), this civilian casualty toll; often they are a glimpse into the foolhardiness year nine 'Green-on-Green' attacks have emplaced during darkness hours, of AOG logistics chains; having claimed 16 lives in Helmand alone, making up and so mostly detonate against appropriated ALP uniforms, approximately one third of such attacks and unsuspecting victims in morning AOG had attempted to smuggle resultant deaths in the entire South. hours. It is notable that in this THE ANSO REPORT Page 12

NGO Incidents Z ABUL Year to Date 0 ZABUL 50 This Report Period 0 On 8 November at 1800 hrs a 40 former mayor of Shah Joy was recent increase. Also all the ab- 30 ductions were exclusively of abducted and shot dead by AOG 20 (IEA) members as he was travel- GOA/ANSF actors, and occurred 10 ling in a private vehicle on High- in Qalat, Shah Joy and Shin Kay way 1. Abduction trends have districts at either early morning 0 changed significantly in Zabul (0800 hrs) or early evening (1700 Province, which between 2006 and 1800 hrs). ZABUL AOG ZABUL Crime and 2011 witnessed an average of This year Shah Joy District has witnessed approximately one ten documented abductions annu- curred on the three districts in Zabul which quarter of all security incidents in ally. In 2006, five of the six ab- Highway 1 intersects: Qalat, Shah Joy and Kar- Zabul Province (141 of 567); dis- duction targets were international nak Wa Jaldak. community members; however, proportionately high, given that this trend has since ceased. Later, there are ten other districts in Za- Also in Shah Joy District, on 31 October at targeting trends reoriented to- bul. During the past fortnight a 0200 hrs, six ALP and two civilian guests were wards civilians with alleged affilia- third of all security incidents in killed at a checkpoint in the Jama Khel area. tions with IMF/ANSF/GOA and Zabul Province occurred in Shah The attacker, a third civilian guest with re- finally to ANSF and GOA offi- Joy; a slight proportional rise. ported links to the AOG (IEA), took an as- cials. In contrast, this year the However, the geographic distribu- sortment of weapons and ammunition from number of documented abduc- tion of security incidents in and the site, and remains at large. Whilst ‘Green- tions is half this annual average. around Zabul is relatively static; on-Blue’ attacks have seized the limelight in However, four of these five ab- both in summer and winter sea- the international media, the phenomenon of ductions this year occurred within sons, this year and last, an average ‘Green-on-Green’ attacks remains just as po- the past three months, signaling a of 69% of security incidents oc- tent (see the Helmand section of this report).

NGO Incidents U RUZGAN Year to Date 1 URUZGAN This Report Period 0 100 Uruzgan Province has been un- characteristically quiet over the the preceding reporting period. 80 past fortnight, with only five secu- An entire low-level AOG detach- 60 rity incidents documented (four of ment formally joined the recon- 40 those occurring in Tirin Kot Dis- ciliation process in Khas Uruzgan 20 trict). Four of the five incidents District, on 8 November. How- 0 this week were IED related (three ever, estimates suggest that this within Tirin Kot), and wounded only represents a small portion of seven ANSF personnel in total. active AOG members in this area. URUZGAN AOG URUZGAN Crime Therefore, despite the threat be- Nonetheless, the gesture is sym- District formally transitioned from IMF to ing reduced, it remains potent— bolic of the fragile winter peace in ANSF security leads in a ceremony held at especially so in Tirin Kot, which Afghanistan. Traditionally there midday on 15 November. Only nine security over the past three months has is an influx in reintegration as the incidents were documented in Chora District suffered 42% of Uruzgan’s total summer fighting seasons slows in 2006, but this had risen to 142 security inci- IED detonations. into a winter lull. Supplies run dents in 2011. However, over this year to date, On average, over the preceding low, fighters run short, and reinte- the district has seen 76 documented incidents; three months there has been an gration payouts seem an increas- a 39% drop in activity by the same time in average of 19 security incidents ingly satisfying-if only temporary- 2011. However, much of Chora’s security inci- occurring around the province solution. However, reintegration dents are related to IEDs; of 29 IED detona- every week. This period repre- efforts have, in the past, attracted tions, the majority were roadside IEDs, three sents a 87% drop in security inci- violent repercussions from all were RCIEDs, and one was a BBIED. Nota- dents from the quarterly average, branches of AOG institutions in bly, in seven security incidents this year 25 ci- although the rate of security inci- the South. vilians have died from IED detonations in the dents had begun deceleration in Also worth noting is that Chora district. THE ANSO REPORT Page 13

NGO Incidents P AKTIKA Year to Date 0 PAKTIKA 100 This Report Period 0 Paktika's security paradigm has 80 not substantially changed since tika has seen a disproportionately 60 the previous reporting period and high amount of night-time secu- 40 rity incidents in comparison with the preceding three months, 20 other provinces in the South; for which has seen an average of ap- 0 proximately 45 security incidents example, Kandahar Province this per fortnight, with roughly two year to date witnesses approxi- thirds being AOG-initiated. mately 22% of its security inci- PAKTIKA AOG PAKTIKA Crime dents in hours of darkness. It is Notably, some two thirds of assessed that darkness affords AOG-initiated incidents (this pe- AOG freedom of movement to night, only two AOG-initiated security inci- riod) occurred in, against or tar- set up IDF firing positions and dents in the DAC incurred casualties--on 2 geted various district administra- skirmish SAF attacks and exfil- November one ANA soldier was wounded in tive centres (DACs) around Pak- trate unscathed. Also worth men- an IED blast, and later that day two AOG tika Province, and 80% of those tioning is that such attacks rarely members were killed in a premature detonation security incidents occurred during incur casualties; in the past fort- of an IED they were emplacing. evening or night-time hours. Pak-

NGO Incidents G HAZNI Year to Date 2 GHAZNI This Report Period 0 180 160 Ghazni Province is generally con- 140 tinuing its winter slowdown. in a SAF attack as he was travel- 120 Only 18 security incidents oc- ling back from the DAC to his 100 80 curred per week during this re- home. The targeting of governors 60 porting period; half that of the is not unprecedented in Ghazni 40 Province, although previous at- 20 quarterly average. 0 tempts utilized differing IEDs, Two security incidents of note including RCIED, BBIED and occurred this period: firstly, there roadside IED (11 June; 24 Au- GHAZNI AOG GHAZNI Crime was an attempt by the armed op- gust; 1 October, respectively). position to assassinate the District This is the fourth attempt against that the internecine violence amongst AOG Governor (DG) for Qarabagh on a governor in Ghazni in as many groups and militias continues. Whilst the 8 November, and secondly, there months, against as many gover- source of this internal dispute amongst AOG was an armed clash between two nors, indicating that this trend is remains unclear, it is clear that there is little competing AOG groups in Andar likely to continue. ‘unity of effort’ amongst AOG elements, and District on 4 November. The second incident highlights that power is brokered amongst vying mid- In the first, the DG was wounded level commanders.

NGO Incidents N IMROZ Year to Date 0 NIMROZ This Report Period 0 50 On 7 November between 1630 40 and 2000 hrs, multiple rockets appear to have been targeted. 30 The motives remain unclear. were fired from the Iranian side of 20 the border into Nimroz Province. Cross-border security incidents 10 Twelve rockets struck open areas are infrequent, but not uncom- 0 in Chahar Burjak District, the mon. In September and Decem- large Southernmost district in ber 2011, Iranian border guards Nimroz, bordering Iran to the shot multiple Afghan civilians NIMROZ AOG NIMROZ Crime West and Pakistan to the South. attempting to cross the border No casualties were suffered from illegally. On 14 September 2011 establishment of new security checkpoints the rocket strikes, and no specific Iranian and Afghan border secu- along the border. locations (e.g. ANSF checkpoints) rity forces clashed over the Contact List Brian Mukhtar Tomas Rory Will Jawid Naseer Tereza COUNTRY CENTRAL Sayed Taro WEST SOUTH Ross EAST NORTH Chase Faizal Firoz Device Private Centre Government Police International ACG of

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