Israel and Middle East News Update

Friday, July 2

Headlines: ● Won’t Back Law Against Family Reunification ● Urging US to Delay Plans to Reopen Consulate ● Hamas Official: 'Significant Progress' in Ceasefire Talks ● IAF Strike in Gaza in Response to Incendiary Balloons ● Palestinians Riot Outside Outpost on Eve of Evacuation ● UN Official Urges Palestinian Security to Allow Protests ● Jordan's King Abdullah Heads to US to Meet Biden ● Iran Restricts UN Inspectors' Access to Nuclear Site

Commentary: ● Ma’ariv: “On a High Flame’’ - By Alon Ben David

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Own Goal’’ - By Amit Segal

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts July 2, 2021 Times of Israel Meretz Won’t Back Law Against Family Reunification Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz told close confidants that his left-wing Meretz party will not back the government in extending the Palestinian family reunification law, legislation that the coalition has struggled to pass even though it is supported in principle by most lawmakers in the . Meretz is considering a plan in which some of its six lawmakers would support the law’s renewal and others would skip the vote. The law, which blocks the automatic granting of citizenship to Palestinians who marry Israeli citizens, expires on July 6. Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked of reportedly intends to bring the troubled legislation for a Knesset vote on Monday in order to beat the deadline. The government wants to extend the law by another year. That legislation aims to limit and restrict immigration to Israel, and provide the state with greater capabilities in deporting those residing in Israel illegally.

Arutz Sheva Crime Leaders in Arab Sector Are Shabak Collaborators' In a recent police hearing, in preparation for a meeting between Commissioner Kobi Shabtai and Minister of Internal Security Omer Bar-Lev, a senior police official said that the criminals who are currently leading the serious crime in the Arab sector "are mostly Shabak collaborators," Channel 12 reported. According to the source, "in this situation the hands of police are bound, because it is not possible to touch those collaborators, who enjoy immunity." The Shabak rejected the allegations made by the senior police official, saying, "The police's allegation of the involvement of Shabak collaborators is false and baseless. There is no connection between this allegation and the factual data that emerges from the investigation of the attacks and indictments." Dig Deeper ‘‘Bedouin MK Seeks Change for Community Through ‘Experiment’ of Joining Government’’ (Times of Israel)

Israel Hayom Hamas Official: 'Significant Progress' in Ceasefire Talks A senior Hamas official in the Gaza Strip told Israel Hayom the arrival of high-level delegations from both the coastal enclave and Israel at the same time in Egypt was an indication dramatic progress was being made in efforts to reach a long-term ceasefire. Nevertheless, the official said Hamas would insist on keeping efforts to rehabilitate Gaza and reach a long-term ceasefire separate from any prisoner exchange deal. Alluded to Arab Israeli politicians working to promote understandings toward a deal, the official said: "The political reality created in Israel makes such involvement possible." In a recent interview with the London-based pan-Arab Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper, Ra'am party leader Mansour Abbas insinuated he was working to advance dialogue between Israel and Palestinian organizations active in Gaza and the West Bank. Dig Deeper ‘‘What's Driving Israeli Islamist Leader Mansour Abbas?’’ (Ha’aretz) 2 Ynet News IAF Strike in Gaza in Response to Incendiary Balloons Incendiary balloons launched from the Gaza Strip sparked four minor fires near the border region, Fire and Rescue Services said, in the latest spate of attacks since a fragile ceasefire came into effect following last month's 11-day conflict between Israel and Palestinian terrorist groups. Eleven days of deadly fighting between Israel and Gaza's Hamas Islamist rulers, as well as other Palestinian terror groups based in the enclave, ended on May 21 with an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire. There was no immediate indication as to which Gaza-based group was responsible for the balloon launches. There have been multiple flare-ups since the ceasefire, including a series of balloon launches last month, to which Israel has responded with airstrikes. Following an exchange of fire on June 18, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi ordered forces to be ready "for a variety of scenarios, including a resumption of hostilities." Dig Deeper ‘‘Gazans Rebuild With Rubble as Reconstruction Delayed’’ (Al- Monitor)

Times of Israel Palestinians Riot Outside Outpost on Eve of Evacuation Hundreds of Palestinians gathered outside the illegal Evyatar outpost in the West Bank, throwing rocks, firebombs and shooting fireworks at IDF troops at the scene, the army said. The violent protest came on the eve of a partial evacuation of the wildcat settlement set for Friday under an agreement reached between the government at the settlers. IDF troops responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. The Palestinian Red Crescent reported it treated 61 people, including six hit by rubber bullets. The rest suffered from tear gas inhalation. The international community regards all Israeli settlements in the West Bank as illegal but Israeli law differentiates between settlements permitted by the Defense Ministry and outposts established without permission, often by ideologically motivated youths. Many settlements started life as illegal outposts and only gained retroactive government approval after reaching a critical mass of residents. Dig Deeper ‘‘The Compromise That Keeps This Illegal Outpost Intact’’ (Ha’aretz)

Associated Press UN Official Urges Palestinian Security to Allow Protests The UN human rights chief urged the Palestinian Authority (PA) to ensure the safety of protesters after security forces and supporters of President Mahmoud Abbas attacked demonstrators over the weekend. The protests erupted after an outspoken critic of the PA died shortly after his family says he was severely beaten by security forces who arrested him. The PA, which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, has grown increasingly autocratic and unpopular in recent years. Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said Palestinian security forces had used force against initially peaceful protesters, “including beating them with batons and firing teargas and stun grenades.” The statement said she was concerned about “the presence of large numbers of non-uniformed people acting in a seemingly organized and coordinated manner” with the Palestinian forces. There was no immediate comment from the PA. More protests are expected this weekend.

3 Reuters Jordan's King Abdullah Heads to US to Meet Biden Jordan's King Abdullah left for the United States for a three-week visit that includes the first meeting by an Arab leader with President Joe Biden at the White House since he took office, a palace statement said. The statement said the monarch, accompanied by his wife Queen Rania, would attend an investors meeting followed by a private itinerary ahead of a working visit to Washington for talks with congressional leaders and administration officials. An official said the king's talks with Biden were expected sometime after mid-July. The staunch US ally will lobby senior officials for an extension of a five-year $6.4b aid package that ends next year to help shore up Jordan's struggling economy, the official added. Washington is Jordan's single largest source of bilateral assistance, providing more than $1.5b every year, and the kingdom ranks among the top recipients of US foreign aid, US diplomats say. Biden reaffirmed strong US support for the monarch shortly after the kingdom announced it had quashed a rift within the royal family that shook Jordan's image as a beacon of stability in the region. Dig Deeper ‘‘Jordan Court Rejects Defence Bid to Have Prince Hamza Testify - Lawyer’’ (Reuters)

I24 News Iran Restricts UN Inspectors' Access to Nuclear Site Iran has been restricting UN nuclear inspectors’ access to its main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, citing security concerns after what it says was an attack on the site by Israel in April, according to diplomats. The standoff is taking place as the indirect talks between the Islamic Republic and the US on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal have adjourned without a date set for their resumption. It follows various moves by Iran that breach the 2015 nuclear deal or have angered Washington and its allies, ranging from enriching uranium to close to weapons-grade to failing to explain the origin of uranium particles that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors found at several undeclared sites. “They are provoking us,” said one Western diplomat. The trend, however, is anything but new, with Iran in recent years having repeatedly denied the IAEA access to locations for snap inspections. An explosion and power cut in April at Natanz, the heart of Iran’s nuclear program, damaged centrifuges at the underground plant. The last quarterly IAEA report on Iran in May showed its enrichment output had slowed. Dig Deeper ‘‘Iran Conditions Return to Nuclear Deal on Us Commitment to Never Withdraw Again’’ (Times of Israel)

4 Ma’ariv – June 2, 2021 On a High Flame By Alon Ben David ● Five years ago, the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate issued an unusual “strategic warning” about an anticipated eruption in the Palestinian arena. Like the other prophecies of a “third Intifada” that have been floated at times, this warning also seemed to be disconnected from reality at the time: the Palestinian population of Judea and Samaria was projecting fatigue and disinterest in fighting. But something has been changing in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) in recent months, and the signs that that prophecy is likely to come true are multiplying. If you ask Samaria Brigade Commander Roi Zweig, he’ll tell you that he’s even now dealing with an Intifada. His brigade has gotten used to dealing with disturbances one or twice a week, most of which involved at most several hundred rioters. ● Now he’s dealing with four hotspots a day, most of which are around Evyatar, and with nightly harassment. Since May, thousands of Palestinians have participated in disturbances—numbers of demonstrators the likes of which have not been seen in years. Some of the demonstrations are against the Palestinian Authority, which lately has seemed to be on the verge of losing control on the ground. Add to that the 35 Palestinians (some of whom were terrorists) who have been killed by IDF gunfire in the last two months—a figure that has not been reached in Judea and Samaria or more than a decade—and you get a particularly volatile concentration of gas fumes in the air. ● As of Thursday, the government seems to have managed to keep the main landmine named Evyatar from blowing up, but only temporarily. In a brilliant and well-planned move, the settler movements successfully capitalized on the IDF’s lack of attention and the transition between the governments in order to establish a fact on the ground—a real settlement and not a transitory outpost, with dozens of families, a kindergarten and a grocery store, in a strategic location in the heart of Samaria. This course of action was prepared well in advance as a contingency plan. The settler movements conducted a long-term study until they located land that the Palestinians are unlikely to be able to prove ownership. The location was selected according to the doctrine of Zev (Zambish) Hever: creating fingers of Israeli settlement stretching from west to east, denying the Palestinians a chance at territorial contiguity in the future. Now they were just waiting for the right moment. ● The IDF will have to study how dozens of structures, including a playground, were moved right under their noses onto the hill between Beita and the Trans-Samaria Highway without being stopped or at least delayed. Granted, Operation Guardian of the Walls was underway, the IDF in the territories was entirely focused on coping with disturbances, and a day earlier an Israeli had been killed in a terrorist attack at the Tapuah junction. At the time, the police and the Border Police had also been busy restoring order in the Arab and mixed [Arab- Jewish] towns within Israel. And yet, the IDF failed to spot the scale of the incident in time, reacted to the settler’s bid belatedly, and did not prevent them from establishing substantial facts on the ground. 5 ● It seems that the settler leaders did not believe that they would be so successful either. Dozens of families, not hilltop youths, from the settler mainstream took up residence in the new settlement undisturbed, and the IDF even hurried to provide security for them. In the subsequent days when the IDF contacted the police to prepare to evict [the settlers], the police dragged their feet and gave arguments about expenses and said that they were unprepared. The settlers, for their part, acted as if they had a direct line to the police’s top brass. The scene became a site of brawls with the Palestinians, costing at least four Palestinians their lives so far. ● Aware of the just established government’s fragility, Defense Minister gave instructions to prepare to remove Evyatar and simultaneously began a dialogue with the settler leaders, at the same time that they were holding another channel of dialogue with Prime Minister Bennett via Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked. On Sunday this week, the preparations to evict them by force were finally completed. About 1,000 police officers and Border Police were set to participate in it, hotels and buses had already been booked, and the IDF was preparing to assign two battalions to provide security during the eviction. But while Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi was issuing orders in his bureau ahead of the operation, Gantz was sitting in the next building with the settler leaders to discuss a compromise. Details of the compromise leaked to the media while the meeting was underway, to the surprise of the army and the chief of staff. The settlers were quick to endorse it, and Gantz realized that Bennett and Shaked had already sewn up the deal. He insisted on one thing: that he, as defense minister, conduct the survey to determine the status of the land before its future is declared. ● Even without this incident, for the past two weeks Gantz looked like his bitterness was overflowing. What made it easier for him to swallow another bitter pill was intelligence that the GSS had obtained about hilltop youths that were preparing to violently resist the eviction, potentially even by use of arms. At the same time, the Palestinian Authority, which in an exemplary show of organization has been leading hundreds of demonstrators to Evyatar every night, lost control of its streets. The torture and murder of opposition activist Nizar Banat brought thousands of Palestinians into the streets in a protest the likes of which we have not seen for years. The attempt shows that the territories do not exist in a vacuum: when the PA gets weaker, Hamas gets stronger, and when there is rage in the streets, it ultimately winds up being channeled against Israel. ● Judea and Samaria has been surprisingly quiet in recent years, even when faced with challenges like the relocation of the US embassy to , Trump’s “plan of the century,” and even Israel’s threats to annex territory. What contributed to the stability was the fact that approximately 120,000 Palestinians make a living in Israel, which is a respectable livelihood. Israel wisely allowed them to maintain their livelihoods even when times were tense, understanding that this was the basis for the stability in the territories. Most of the Palestinian workers had been compelled thus far to set aside about a third of their salary for the brokers who connected them with their Israeli employers. Yesterday an app that will save them that payment and allow the employers and workers to communicate directly, without brokers, became operational.

6 ● From the workers’ standpoint, this is good news, but for the brokers, this app deprives them of their livelihood. It’s difficult to know where the anger will lead them. Contrary to Israel’s unquestionable interest in strengthening the PA at this time and stopping Hamas from growing stronger, the new government added wood to the bonfire. In a rookie mistake, the prime minister’s spokesperson issued the humiliating statement about transferring vaccines that were about to expire, causing the Palestinians to return them. Since then, they have quietly agreed to take several tens of thousands of vaccine doses. “Where you sit is where you stand,” goes the cliché, but the Bennett-Lapid government is now being forced to learn how accurate it is. That goes for the left-wing members of the government, who are watching forlornly as a new settlement is established in Samaria on their watch, and for Bennett, who is personally allowing what he considered detestable—letting Qatari funds into Gaza next week. This government has not had a moment’s grace, and between the Iranian issue and the fighting in Gaza that is liable to resume, it will have to act quickly in order to avert a flare-up in Judea and Samaria too.

7 Yedioth Ahronoth – June 2, 2021 Own Goal By Amit Segal ● The somewhat Machiavellian government that was formed three weeks ago is a flimsy, fractured and mutually suspicious structure. Many of its members joined with a sour feeling. There is some basic sense to the ’s strategy of harassing it, keeping it up all night with filibusters and verbal attacks. But Netanyahu and his people’s aggressive rhetoric are only causing the coalition to fall in. What worked for the right-wing’s opposition to the Oslo Accords does not work today for a right-wing opposition in the era of the Abraham Accords. The weak link in the government is not Idit Silman and her colleagues in Yamina, but rather Said al-Harumi and his colleagues in the , and the correct tactic to use is not rage, but rather mockery. ● Yamina is now the ruling faction, and there is no bait seductive enough that can get its members, or the members of , to return to the right-wing bloc, especially if another bridge is burned every day (for example, David Amsalem’s unfounded insinuations about why Gideon Saar quit in 2014). The ones benefitting the least from the government and getting hit the most are Mansour Abbas and his colleagues and the left- wing branch of Meretz: they are being asked to vote for a government that is legalizing Evyatar, removing homes in Silwan and permitted the march of flags. MK Moshe Arbel () took to the Knesset podium this week and praised Mansour Abbas in Arabic for the rare opportunity he was given to establish a Jewish yeshiva on a hilltop in Samaria. ● The video quickly spread throughout Arab society and badly embarrassed the UAL. ’s stomachaches are also much more authentic than those of Ayelet Shaked and her colleagues, which have since passed, if they even had them. Arbel’s tactic is better than Netanyahu’s. Netanyahu’s decision to oppose the family unification bill was also smart: it widened the cracks in the coalition instead of fusing the parties. Netanyahu’s fundamental problem, the problem that even live broadcasts on Facebook at 4:00 AM will not solve, is that he is still nine whole seats short of a majority in the Knesset. He was photographed this week in the office of the opposition chairman together with Deri, Litzman, Gafni and Smotrich. This group is not sufficiently attractive— to use an understatement—to reconquer the government. Toppling the government is essential but very far from being enough for Netanyahu to return to the Prime Minister’s Bureau. ● The large entourage of the alternate prime minister was walking through the Knesset this week when it encountered , on his own. Let’s meet, Lapid suggested. We’ll talk, the seasoned MK said evasively. Lapid wants to strengthen the connection with the Arab faction that he prefers to the United Arab List. Tibi is playing hard to get. But they both know that while it is Mansour Abbas who is enjoying the attention and the compliments (“Prime Minister Abbas” is how the opposition addresses him), the ones who can decide the fate of the coalition are the members of the . It was for good reason that they were given hefty representation in the Knesset committees. If they want, they can make Abbas’ life bitter. 8 ● At some point, after all, the compliments will stop, and life itself will begin: the demolitions in the Negev, the evictions in Sheikh Jarrah or the Lebanese border will heat up. Moreover, Abbas does not head an obedient party, but rather a rickety federation: Said al-Harumi only cares about the Negev, posts belligerent tweets and Mazen Ghanaim is an import, not a party member. This is where Tibi, Odeh and their colleagues’ dilemma begins: on the one hand, the last thing they want is for Abbas to be the only one with his hand on the budget tap and with influence. On the other hand, they have no interest in the Likud’s return to power. The Joint List is not a part of the Bennett coalition, but is not part of the Netanyahu opposition either. The operative conclusion is that the Joint List will not be the one to prevent the budget from being passed. ● As far as its members are concerned, the ideal time for a new election is in another year: by then, the euphoria among the UAL’s supporters will have faded over its inclusion in the government. “The Arab public,” Tibi says about Abbas, “will naturally be happy to get budgets, but money is not the answer to everything. If the demolitions, the crime and the Kamenitz law continue, the Bennett-Abbas project will fail.”Bennett and Lapid are aware of the problem and are seeking replacement players in the Knesset. The prime minister marked a target this week, of expanding the coalition as quickly as possible. That is the reason the bill that will enable four Likud MKs to break away was expedited. The number four is not coincidental, of course: this is exactly the size of the UAL. That is the reason that the housing, settlement and perhaps even the Negev- Galilee portfolios are being held in reserve. What is amazing is that Abbas voted in favor of the bill that will enable his replacement. If it were anyone else, we would suspect naivete, but not when it comes to the best peddler in the Knesset who taught even Netanyahu a lesson. There are good reasons for his complacency. ● The last time that Reuven Rivlin and Joe Biden made headlines together was 11 years ago. The American vice president at the time was in the middle of a traumatic visit to Israel in which he raged at Netanyahu for two hours because of construction in Jerusalem. The speaker at the time, Rivlin, despite Netanyahu’s protests, went to inaugurate the Hurva Synagogue in the Old City of Jerusalem. “Jerusalem,” Rivlin said, “is not up for debate, not even with friends.” The reason for the 46 th American president’s gesture to our tenth president is not because Rivlin has changed his political positions, or because Biden had changed his. ● The reason is the polar change in the national agenda, which took place during his seven years as president, which are ending this week, to the sound of trumpets. Rivlin was elected as a proponent of Greater Israel. During his term, he visited Judea and Samaria 30 times, not including condolence visits to bereaved families. He stressed over and over that settlement in Hebron was not a provocation but rather “the Jews’ return to the land of their forefathers” and that the Jewish people has “a moral right to the entire land.”The reason is not even Netanyahu, even though Rivlin’s invitation to the White House was meant to taunt the previous prime minister and to circumvent him. The reason is that the right wing has changed.

9 ● The issue of outposts, settlement, removals and eviction have vacated their place for a debate over the question of what the guiding principle of democracy is: is it majority rule, or is it something more? In the world of 2014, Rivlin received the votes of the Jewish Home at the time while Zehava Galon refused to support him “because he is a man of the settlers and the rabbis.” But in the world of 2021, in which the powers of the High Court of Justice, the authority of the attorney general and the discretion of the officials is debated, in that world, Rivlin would not have even beaten Herzog among the right-wing. Rivlin and some of the right wing in the Knesset will say goodbye next week with a sour feeling. The outgoing president is certain that the camp from which he came grew addicted to Netanyahu at the price of conceding statesmanship and ideology. There are some in his former camp who are angry at what they perceive to be his capitulation to the elitists in Israeli society. It may too late for them to reconcile, considering the president’s age and the right-wing’s emotional state. Even in their dotage, they are feeling the pangs of unrequited love.

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