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Alaska International Airport System – Forecast Technical Report

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Alaska International Airport System – Forecast Technical Report Forecast Technical Report Alaska International Airport System May 2013 Fairbanks International Airport Anchorage International Airport DOWL HKM This document was prepared by: As subcontractor to: HNTB Corporation DOWL HKM 2900 South Quincy St. 4041 B. Street Arlington, VA 22042 Anchorage, Alaska 99503 for the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, with a grant from the Federal Aviation Administration. The preparers gratefully acknowledge the contributions of the management and staff of the Alaska International Airport System, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport and Fairbanks International Airport, along with the AIAS Airlines Airport Affairs Committee (AAAC). AIAS Airlines Airport Affairs Committee Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport - Fairbanks International Airport July 5, 2012 Mr. Steve Hatter Deputy Commissioner of Aviation 4111 Aviation Avenue P.O. Box 196900 Anchorage, AK 99519-6960 Re: AIAS Planning Study Forecasts Thank you for the opportunity to participate in the development and review of the forecasts for Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, and Fairbanks International Airport. We appreciate the extensive effort made by the AIAS Planning team to reach out and actively solicit airline participation in the process. The AIAS (Alaska International Airport System) AAAC (Airlines Airport Affairs Committee) believes these forecasts accurately represent current economic uncertainties and trends and are a reasonable estimate of long term future activity levels. Given uncertainties of forecasts, especially today, we encourage future planning to be based on aviation activity trigger points rather than forecasted dates. We also believe the forecasts will need to be revisited prior to committing to any large capital projects. Thanks again for partnering with the airlines on the forecasts. We look forward to working with you on the Airport Master Plans. Best Regards, Kathy Smith Kevin Hoffmann Co-Chairperson Co-Chairperson AIAS Airlines Airport Affairs Committee AIAS Airlines Airport Affairs Committee cc: AIAS Airlines Airport Affairs Committee ALASKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SYSTEM – FORECAST TECHNICAL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1.0. Purpose and Background ...................................................................................... 1 1.1. Forecast Methodology ........................................................................................ 2 1.2. Survey of Air Carriers ......................................................................................... 2 1.3. Forecast Assumptions ........................................................................................ 3 2.0. Socioeconomic Background and Projections ........................................................ 4 2.1. Population .......................................................................................................... 5 2.2. Employment ....................................................................................................... 5 2.3. Global Economic Forecasts ............................................................................. 10 3.0. Fuel Costs and Air Fares ..................................................................................... 13 3.1. Oil and Jet Fuel Prices ..................................................................................... 13 3.2. Average Air Fares ............................................................................................ 16 4.0. Historical Aviation Activity at AIAS Airports ......................................................... 18 4.1. Historical Passenger Activity ............................................................................ 19 4.2. Historical Air Cargo Activity .............................................................................. 22 4.2.1. Historical Air Cargo at ANC ....................................................................... 22 4.2.2. Historical Air Cargo at FAI ......................................................................... 25 4.3. Historical Aircraft Operations ............................................................................ 26 5.0. Passenger Forecasts........................................................................................... 29 5.1. Passenger Forecast Assumptions .................................................................... 29 5.2. Domestic Passenger Forecast ......................................................................... 30 5.2.1. Methodology and Data Sources ................................................................ 30 5.2.2. Domestic Passenger Originations Forecasts ............................................. 31 5.2.3. Domestic Outbound Passenger Forecasts ................................................ 32 5.2.4. Seat Departure Forecast ........................................................................... 36 5.3. International Passenger Forecast .................................................................... 36 5.3.1. Methodology, Assumptions, and Data Sources ......................................... 37 5.3.2. Forecasts by International Region ............................................................. 38 5.3.3. International Transit Passenger Forecasts ................................................ 38 5.3.4. Non-Transit International Passengers ....................................................... 38 5.3.5. Seat Departure Forecast ........................................................................... 38 5.4. Peak Passenger Activity .................................................................................. 38 5.5. Passenger Forecast Summary ......................................................................... 39 5.6. Passenger Aircraft Operations Projections ...................................................... 40 May 2013 Page i ALASKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SYSTEM – FORECAST TECHNICAL REPORT 5.6.1. Passenger Aircraft Operation Assumptions ............................................... 41 5.6.2. Peak Passenger Aircraft Operations ......................................................... 42 5.6.3. Summary of Passenger Aircraft Operations .............................................. 42 6.0. Cargo ................................................................................................................... 44 6.1. Survey/Interview Summary .............................................................................. 44 6.2. Cargo Forecast Assumptions ........................................................................... 46 6.3. Intra-state Cargo Tonnage Forecast ................................................................ 47 6.3.1. Background ............................................................................................... 47 6.3.2. Cargo Tonnage Forecasts ......................................................................... 51 6.3.3. Belly and Combi- Cargo Tonnage Forecasts ............................................. 52 6.3.4. Intrastate All Cargo Tonnage and Capacity ............................................... 52 6.3.5. Summary of Intrastate Cargo Tonnage Forecasts ..................................... 53 6.4. International/Other U.S. Cargo Tonnage Forecast ........................................... 54 6.4.1. Background ............................................................................................... 54 6.4.2. Cargo Tonnage Forecasts ......................................................................... 58 6.4.3. Belly Cargo Forecast ................................................................................. 67 6.4.4. International and Other U.S. All-Cargo Carrier Capacity ........................... 67 6.4.5. International/Other U.S. Air Cargo Summary ............................................. 69 6.5. All-Cargo Aircraft Departure Forecasts ............................................................ 70 6.6. All-Cargo Peaking Forecast ............................................................................. 73 7.0. Air Taxi and Other Activity Forecasts .................................................................. 74 8.0. General Aviation Forecasts ................................................................................. 78 9.0. Military Forecasts ................................................................................................ 82 10.0. Forecast Summary ........................................................................................... 84 10.1. Passenger Forecast Summary ..................................................................... 84 10.2. Cargo Forecast Summary ............................................................................. 87 10.3. Aircraft Operations Forecast Summary ......................................................... 90 10.4. Forecast Comparisons .................................................................................. 96 10.5. Conclusion .................................................................................................... 98 11.0. Forecast Scenarios ........................................................................................ 100 11.1. Scenario 1 – No Action ............................................................................... 100 11.2. Scenario 2 – High Fuel Price ...................................................................... 101 11.3. Scenario 3 – High Economic Growth/Increased International Air Cargo ..... 101 11.4. Scenario 4 – Starburst ...............................................................................
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