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Technology Options for Feeding 10 Billion People Plant Breeding and Innovative Agriculture

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Technology Options for Feeding 10 Billion People Plant Breeding and Innovative Agriculture Technology options for feeding 10 billion people Plant breeding and innovative agriculture Study Science and Technology Options Assessment Technology options for feeding 10 billion people Plant breeding and innovative agriculture Study IP/A/STOA/FWC/2008-096/Lot7/C1/SC1 - SC3 October 2013 PE 513.521 The STOA project ‘Technology options for feeding 10 billion people - Plant breeding and innovative agriculture’ was carried out by the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe. PROJECT LEADER PD Dr Rolf Meyer (ITAS, Karlsruhe, Germany) AUTHORS PD Dr. Rolf Meyer (ITAS, Karlsruhe, Germany) Dr. Tomas Ratinger (Technology Centre ASCR, Prague, Czech Republic) Kai Peter Voss-Fels (University of Gieβen, Germany) STOA RESEARCH ADMINISTRATOR Lieve Van Woensel Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA) Directorate for Impact Assessment and European Added Value Directorate General for Internal Policies, European Parliament Rue Wiertz 60 - RMD 00J012 B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] LINGUISTIC VERSION Original: EN ABOUT THE PUBLISHER To contact STOA please write to [email protected] This document is available on the Internet at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/stoa/ Manuscript completed in August 2013 Brussels, © European Union, 2013. DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. PE 513.521 CAT BA-03-13-605-EN-C DOI 10.2861/38962 ISNB 978-92-823-4895-6 Technology options for feeding 10 billion people - Plant breeding and innovative agriculture Abstract In the frame of the STOA project “Technology options for feeding 10 billion people”, this report analyse how farming management concepts, practices and technologies, including plant breeding, could enable sustainable intensification of crop production, with the aim to increase food production and support food supply. The aim of sustainable intensification is to produce more food from the same area of land while reducing the environmental impacts, under social and economic beneficial conditions. The study addresses agriculture in developing countries as well as in industrialized countries (Europe), small-scale and large-scale farming, extensive and intensive agricultural production systems, and low and high tech production practices. The main topics are: Reducing yield gaps – sustainable intensification and improving crop management; Increasing yield potentials – plant breeding; Reducing crop losses – improving harvest and postharvest procedures. For these topics, options for action are identified and discussed. STOA - Science and Technology Options Assessement Technology options for feeding 10 billion people - Plant breeding and innovative agriculture CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS i LIST OF TABLES iv LIST OF FIGURES vi Executive Summary 1 Sustainable intensification and improving crop management: Reducing the yield gap 1 Plant breeding: Increasing the yield potential 2 Reducing crop losses 3 Options Brief 5 Sustainable intensification in the European Union 5 Strengthening plant breeding progress 7 Reducing crop losses 7 1. Background and approach 9 1.1. Background 9 1.2. Objective, scope and topics 9 1.3. Approach 10 1.3.1. Approach in topic 1 10 1.3.2. Approach in topic 2 12 1.3.3. Approach in topic 3 12 2. Overview global and European agriculture 14 2.1. Crop production 14 2.2. Development of productivity 17 2.3. Farming structures 23 3. Constraints in crop production 29 3.1. Yield gap and objectives of sustainable intensification 29 3.2. Constraints in crop production 30 3.2.1. Soil fertility 30 3.2.2. Water availability 33 3.2.3. Crop nutrition 35 3.2.4. Pests, diseases and weed competition 37 3.2.5. Demand for energy input 39 STOA - Science and Technology Options Assessement 4. SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVING CROP MANAGEMENT: REDUCING THE YIELD GAP 41 4.1. Production systems 41 4.1.1. Precision agriculture 41 4.1.2. Conservation agriculture 47 4.1.3 System of rice intensification 53 4.1.4. Organic farming 55 4.1.5. Agroforestry 62 4.1.6. Integrated crop-livestock production systems 67 4.1.7. Conclusions 71 4.2. Technologies and practices for sustainable intensification 75 4.2.1. Practices and technologies of crop production management 75 4.2.2. Practices and technologies of soil management 81 4.2.3. Practices and technologies of water management 83 4.2.4. Practices and technologies of nutrition management 85 4.2.5. Practices and technologies of pest, disease and weed control management 87 4.2.6. Conclusion 92 5. PLANT BREEDING: INCREASING THE YIELD POTENTIAL 94 5.1. Introduction: History of scientific based plant breeding 94 5.2. Overview breeding technologies and goals 94 5.2.1. Definitions of plant breeding 94 5.2.2. General breeding goals 94 5.2.3. Basis for inheritance 95 5.2.4. Major steps in plant breeding 95 5.3. Plant breeding technologies 96 5.3.1. Overall breeding strategies and conventional breeding 96 5.3.2. Mutation breeding 100 5.3.3. Tissue culture techniques 101 5.3.4. Marker-assisted breeding 106 5.3.5. Breeding with genetic modification 110 5.3.6. Breeding in organic farming 119 5.3.7. Participatory plant breeding 120 5.4 Seed industry 122 5.4.1. Commercial seed market 122 Technology options for feeding 10 billion people - Plant breeding and innovative agriculture 5.4.2. Non-commercial seed market 124 5.4.3. Plant breeding and intellectual property rights 125 5.5. Conclusions 126 6. REDUCING CROP LOSSES 138 6.1. Introduction 138 6.2. Overview of harvest and post-harvest crop losses 141 6.3. Options to reduce losses in the grain sector 145 6.4. Options to reduce losses in the root and tuber sector 148 6.5. Options to reduce losses in the Fresh Fruits and Vegetables sector 151 6.6. Moulds and Mycotoxins 155 6.7. Institutional and other socio-economic aspects 156 7. Options for action 160 7.1. Sustainable intensification in the European Union 160 7.1.1. Building awareness 160 7.1.2. Research, development and demonstration 161 7.1.3. Knowledge and technology transfer 163 7.1.4. Communities of practice 163 7.1.5. Incentive programmes 164 7.1.6. Enabling CAP reform 164 7.1.7. Alignment of regulations 165 7.2. Reducing crop losses 165 7.3. Global perspective: Food security issues 167 Glossary 168 References 172 Technology options for feeding 10 billion people - Plant breeding and innovative agriculture LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AKIS Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation System AKS Agricultural Knowledge System AWU Annual Work Unit Bt Bacillus thuringiensis CA Conservation Agriculture CAP Common Agricultural Policy CoP Community of Practice CTF Controlled Traffic Farming DNA Deoxyribonucleic acid EAFRD European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development ECS Evaporating Cooling System EIP European Innovation Partnership EPO European Patent Office ESU European Size Unit EUROSTAT Statistical Office of the European Union FADN Farm Accounting Data Network FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations FFS Farm Structure Survey FFV Fresh Fruits and Vegetables FSC Food Supply Chain GAO Gross Agricultural Output GMO Genetically Modified Organism GHI Global Hunger Index GNSS Global Navigation Satellite Systems i STOA - Science and Technology Options Assessement HNV High Nature Value (farming) INM Integrated Nutrient Management IPM Integrated Pest Management IPR Intellectual Property Rights JRC Joint Research Cenre (of the European Commission) K Potassium LFA Less Favoured Area LINSA Learning and Innovation Networks for Sustainable Agriculture LSU Livestock Unit MAP Modified Atmosphere Packaging MAS Marker Assisted Selection NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NUE Nitrogen Use Efficiency PA Precision Agriculture PPB Participatory Plant Breeding N Nitrogen OF Organic Farming PBR Plant Breeders’ Right PCR Polymerase Chain Reaction PVP Plant Variety Protection PS Phenotypic Selection P Phosphorous QTL Quantitative Trait Loci RAPD Random Amplified Polymorhic DNA RA Regular Air/Atmosphere RBMP River Basin Management Plan ii Technology options for feeding 10 billion people - Plant breeding and innovative agriculture RH Relative humidity RNA Ribonucleic Acid SCAR Standing Committee on Agricultural Research SGM Standard Gross Margin SMART Selection with Markers and Advanced Reproduction Technologies SNP Single Nucleotide Polymorhism SOC Soil Organic Content SOM Soil Organic Matter SRI System of Rice Intensification SSR Sort Simple Repeats, also called Microsatellites UAA Utilised Agricultural Area UPOV International Union for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants ULO Ultra Low Oxygen USPTO US Patent and Trademark Office TILLING Targeting Induced Local Lesions In Genoms WFD Water Framework Directive iii STOA - Science and Technology Options Assessement LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Global harvested area by crop category 15 Table 2: Harvested area European Union by crop category in 2011 17 Table 3: Global yield growth rates for selected crops, 1961-2007 18 Table 4: Share of farms, area, livestock units (LU) and output covered by different levels of farming intensity in EU-15, 2003 21 Table 5: Average farm size and dispersion measures in different regions, 1990s 24 Table 6: Importance of semi-subsistence farming (with more than 50% of output self-consumed) in the EU-27, 2007 27 Table 7: Precision agriculture – overview 42 Table
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