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The Wider Black Sea Region in the 21St Century: Strategic, Economic and Energy Perspectives

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The Wider Black Sea Region in the 21St Century: Strategic, Economic and Energy Perspectives The Wider Black Sea Region in the 21st Century: Strategic, Economic and Energy Perspectives Edited by Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott Hamilton, Daniel and Mangott, Gerhard (eds.), The Wider Black Sea Region in the 21st Century: Strategic, Economic and Energy Perspectives (Washington, D.C.: Center for Transatlantic Relations, 2008) © Center for Transatlantic Relations, The Johns Hopkins University/Austrian Institute for International Affairs, 2008 Center for Transatlantic Relations American Consortium on EU Studies EU Center of Excellence Washington, D.C. The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies The Johns Hopkins University 1717 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Suite 525 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. (202) 663-5880 Fax (202) 663-5879 Email: [email protected] http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu Austrian Institute for International Affairs Operngasse 20B A-1040 Vienna Tel: +43/1/581 11 06 Fax: +43/1/581 11 06-10 Email: [email protected] http://www.oiip.at Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Ungarstrasse 37 A-1031 Vienna Tel: +43/1/50175 400 Fax: +43/1/50175 491 Email: [email protected] http://www.marshallplan.at ISBN 10: 0-9801871-3-3 ISBN 13: 978-0-9801871-3-7 Cover images courtesy of: center image — SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and “GeoEye”; from top left corner, clockwise — Gavin Hellier/The Image Bank/Getty Images; Getty Images; OSCE; John Foxx/Stockbyte/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images; UN/DPI Photo/Justyna Melnikiewicz; Vano Shlamov/AFP/Getty Images. Table of Contents Preface . v Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott The Wider Black Sea Region in the Twenty-First Century . 1 Charles King Perspectives from the Region Georgia and the Wider Black Sea . 23 Jonathan Kulick and Temuri Yakobashvili Prospects for Armenia and Azerbaijan between Eurasia and the Middle East . 53 Rainer Freitag-Wirminghaus Turkey and the Wider Black Sea Region . 87 Zeyno Baran Russia’s Perspective on the Wider Black Sea Region . 103 Dmitri Trenin Transregional Issues Economic Developments in the Wider Black Sea Region . 121 Vasily Astrov and Peter Havlik The Relevance of the Wider Black Sea Region to EU and Russian Energy Issues . 147 Gerhard Mangott and Kirsten Westphal Conflicts in the Wider Black Sea Area . 177 Anna Matveeva Expanding the European Area of Stability and Democracy to the Wider Black Sea Region . 225 Svante Cornell and Anna Jonsson European, Russian and Transatlantic Approaches The EU’s New Black Sea Policy . 253 Michael Emerson NATO and Black Sea Security . 277 F. Stephen Larrabee Troubled Strategic Partnership: The Black Sea Dimension of Russia’s Relations with the West . 293 Nadia Alexandrova-Arbatova A Transatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black Sea? . 319 Daniel Hamilton About the Authors . 337 Preface Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott The wider Black Sea region has become a new strategic frontier for Europe, Russia and the United States in terms of energy security, frozen and festering conflicts, trade links, migration, and other key policy areas. Prospects for the Black Sea in the 21st century will be shaped by the interaction between major external actors, the ambitions of states and peoples in the region, and the region’s role as a crossroads of civilizations. In this volume leading scholars from Europe, Russia, the U.S. and the region itself address the dynamics of the wider Black Sea. They examine whether this expanse of land and sea can justifiably be described as a coherent region; outline aspirations and challenges; discuss major issues of conflict; and identify potential for cooperation. The many issues raised by this dynamic region give rise to various perspectives, many at odds with each other. Rather than engaging in the dubious task of forcing consensus on our diverse and notable set of authors, we have preferred to offer the reader a deeper appreciation of the region’s challenges, as well as its promise, by presenting a number of different — and sometimes sharply conflicting — views regarding the wider Black Sea region. This book is the result of a collaborative research project organized by the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, the Austrian Institute for International Affairs in Vienna, and the Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation. We would like to thank the authors for their engagement and their contributions, and our own colleagues at CTR and OIIP for their energy and assistance with this project. Particular thanks go to our colleagues at the Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation for their encour- agement and unfailing support for this initiative. Each author writes in his or her personal capacity; the views expressed are those of the authors and not of their institutions. The Wider Black Sea Region in the Twenty-First Century Charles King The place of the wider Black Sea region in the wider Europe has never been a straightforward matter. “We have just crossed the Terek [River], upon a very indifferent raft,” wrote the wife of a Russian imperial official in 1811, “and are now out of Europe.”1 For many travelers in the nineteenth century, moving across the Terek or Kuban rivers in the north Caucasus, crossing the Caucasus mountains, or sail- ing across the Black Sea involved moving out of Europe and into Asia, from one clearly defined and civilized space into the realm of the primitive and the unknown. But that view was not universal. Karl Marx once remarked that he regarded the squelching of two inchoate revolutions — the Polish rebellion of 1830 and the Russian expulsion of Caucasus highlanders in the 1860s — as the two most important “European” events of his lifetime.2 The German diplomat Max von Thielmann stretched the boundaries even further. “Europe ceases at the Place du Théâtre,” he wrote in 1872, referring to a square in Tiflis, modern Tbilisi.3 The Black Sea region — defined as the land- and seascape from the Balkans to the Caucasus and from the Ukrainian and Russian steppe to Anatolia — is once again squarely within the field of view of European policymakers. The European Union (EU) and NATO now border the Black Sea on the west. Turkey, an EU accession country and NATO member, borders it to the south. Members of the Council of Europe and two NATO aspirants border it on the north and east. A region that a decade ago was on the far edge of Europe’s consciousness 1 Frederika von Freygang, Letters from the Caucasus and Georgia (London: John Murray, 1823), p. 32. 2 Karl Marx to Friedrich Engels, June 7, 1864, in Marx and Engels, Collected Works (New York: International Publishers, 1975), 41:538. 3 Max von Thielmann, Journey in the Caucasus, Persia, and Turkey in Asia, trans. Charles Heneage (London: John Murray, 1875), 1:222. 2 The Wider Black Sea Region in the 21st Century has now become the next frontier of European strategic thinking in terms of energy security, trade links, migration, and other key policy areas. At various points in history, a distinct region defined by the Black Sea and its hinterlands has been a commonplace of European affairs, although the limits of that region have fluctuated over time. Over the last two decades, there has been considerable effort to revive Black Sea regionalism, in part through the establishment of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation forum (BSEC) in 1992 and its upgrade to the status of a full-fledged organization in 1999. Furthermore, the process of EU enlargement, the EU’s need to develop a clear set of policies regarding the future of its “neighborhood” to the east, U.S. depend- ence on allies around the sea during the Iraq war, and Russia’s revived desire for influence across Eurasia have all made the Black Sea region of considerable strategic interest. This chapter places this newfound engagement with the wider Black Sea world in its historical context, offering a look back at the grand historical sweep of the region and its fitful engagement with Europe. It seeks to place the region’s current challenges in the broad context of the many projects for Black Sea regionalism that have defined this zone in the past. The essay is organized around three sets of questions: First, what is a region, and is the Black Sea one? Second, how have projects for making the Black Sea into a region fared histor- ically, and what are the obstacles to Black Sea regionalism today? Third, what are the likely prospects for and pitfalls of Black Sea region-building in the early twenty-first century? What is a Region? Searching for a set of timeless, objective traits for establishing what sets off a real region from an imagined one is futile.4 There are no clear criteria for distinguishing a “genuine” region from any other piece of real estate. Some areas that share cultural, linguistic or histor- ical commonalities are divided into mutually antagonistic states. Other areas that have few common historical or social features manage to sustain a sense of mutual identity and engage in cooperative foreign 4 This section draws on Charles King, “Is the Black Sea a Region?” in Oleksandr Pavliuk and Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, eds., The Black Sea Region: Cooperation and Security- Building (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2004), pp. 13-26. The Wider Black Sea Region in the Twenty-First Century 3 policy relationships. Thus, where regions emerge as political concepts, they do so in the main because of self-conscious projects to build them, whether cooperatively or through the tried-and-true mecha- nisms of imperial expansion and state conquest. In the end, regions exist where politicians and strategists say they exist. Where do regions come from? How do they become consolidated? Why do only a few of them succeed in creating integrated interests? These are some of the central questions in the now vast literature on regions and regionalism.
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