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Uzbekistan's Technology Needs Assessment

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Uzbekistan's Technology Needs Assessment Capacity Building to Address Climate Change Related Problems INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Phase 2 2001 INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Phase 2 2001 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION REPORT UZBEKISTAN: COUNTRY STUDY ON CLIMATE CHANGE, PHASE 2: “Expedited Financing of Climate Change Enabling Activities” National Co-ordinator of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change for the Republic of Uzbekistan: V.E. Chub Project Manager: T.A. Ososkova Agencies that participated in report preparation: Main Administration of Hydrometeorology Ministry of Macroeconomics and Statistics (Department of Statistic) ‘Uzbekenergo’ National Joint-Stock Company ‘Uzkommunhizmat’ Uzbek Agency Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources ‘Uzbekneftegaz’ National Holding Company ‘Uzhimprom’ Association ‘Uzbekkurulishmollari’ National Holding Company and others The Project has been implemented by the Main Administration of Hydrometeorology under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the financial assistance of the Global Environmental Facility and the UN Development Programme. Main Administration of Hydrometeorology 72 Maksumov St. Tashkent 700052 Republic of Uzbekistan Tel.: (998 71) 133 61 17 Fax: (998 71) 133 61 17 e-mail: [email protected] Contents Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………5 1. Priority technological requirements of economic sectors of Uzbekistan in reducing greenhouse gas emission and mitigating the negative impact of climate change……..……………………….………………7 1.1. Identification of key economic sectors for assessing technological requirements………7 1.2. Identification of technological requirements of economic sectors of Uzbekistan……...10 1.2.1. Electric power engineering……...………………………………………………………...10 1.2.2. Heat supply to consumers in Uzbekistan …………………………………………………13 1.2.3. Oil and gas sector………………………………………………………………………….17 1.2.4. Chemical industry…………………………………………………………………………21 1.2.5. Construction materials industry…………………………………………………………...23 1.2.6. Transport ………………………………………………………………………………….24 1.2.7. Agriculture.………………………………………………………………………………..25 1.2.8. Forestry……………………………………………………………………………………27 1.2.9. Wastes……………………………………………………………………………………..29 1.2.10. Renewable energy sources……………………………………………………………….31 1.3. Capacity building to assess technological requirements ………………………………..33 1.3.1. Building logistical capacity……………………………………………………………...33 1.3.2. Building information capacity…………………………………………………………...34 1.3.3. Human capacity development…………………………………………………………...35 1.3.4. Database on technologies and technological requirements……………………………...35 1.4. Priority projects development and management ………………………………………..36 1.4.1. Technological proposals on reducing greenhouse gas emission. Selection criteria and computations peculiarities…………………………………………………………..36 1.4.2. Economic efficiency of investment projects and possibilities of their transfer………….39 1.4.3. Investment climate and technology market……………………………………………...40 1.4.4. Role of the private sector in technology transfer………………………………………...42 1.4.5. Role of legislation in technology transfer………………………………………………..43 1.4.6. Identification of barriers to the introducing new technologies…………………………..44 2. Study of climate change impact on the environment and economic sectors of Uzbekistan……………………………………………………………….45 2.1. The impact of climate change on water resources in conditions of their intensive use …….45 2.1.1. Comprehensive approach to assessing vulnerability of water resources considering irrigated farming requirements ………………………………………………………….45 2.1.2. Assessment of vulnerability of river watersheds to natural and human-induced changes in climate parameters ………………………………………………..…………47 2.1.3. Selecting and adapting run-off change assessment method considering human-induced impact and information capacity…………………………………………48 2.1.4. Perspective assessment of river run-off in the Aral Sea basin in conditions of climate change …………………………………………………………………….…..49 2.1.5. Consequences and risks, interventions of sustainable use of water resources…………….51 2.2. Agriculture: assessing possible losses and benefits ……………………………………...53 2.2.1. Climate change and land degradation in Uzbekistan ……………………………………..53 2.2.2. The impact of climate change on the main farm crops …………………………………...56 2.2.3. Possible losses and benefits, adaptation interventions in crop farming …………………..58 2.2.4. Assessing the impact of climate change on natural pastures degradation………………...60 2.2.5. Adaptation and pasture degradation prevention interventions …………………………...63 2.2.6. Study of the impact of climate change on the condition and grazing of livestock such as Karakul sheep………………………………………………………..63 2.3. Climatic observations, monitoring, assessment of current climate changes; methods of generating regional climatic scenarios ……………………………………..65 2.3.1. Systematic climate monitoring ………………………………………………………….65 2.3.2. Methodological basis for preparing a climate monitoring newsletter …………………. 68 2.3.3. Assessing changes in the main climatic parameters throughout the territory of Uzbekistan……………………………………………………………………………….69 2.3.4. Assessing the probability of climatic extremes in Uzbekistan related to climate change …………………………………………………………………………………………...73 2.3.5. Statistical interpretation of output data of general circulation models for generating regional climatic scenarios ………………………………………………………………77 2.4. Study of integrated climatic indicators, assessment of possible negative consequences ….. 82 2.4.1. Climate change and mudslide-prone areas in Uzbekistan……………………………….82 2.4.2. Dynamics of aridity in the territory of Uzbekistan related to climate change …………..84 2.4.3. Changes in thermal stress level and human climatic comfort ………………………….89 2.4.4. Assessing possible change in heating and air-conditioning requirements ………………91 2.5. Alternative energy sources climatic capacity ……………………………………………93 2.5.1. Assessing the capacity of wind and solar energy resources in Uzbekistan and efficiency of their use ………………………………………………………………………………93 2.5.2. Potential hydropower resources in Uzbekistan ………………………………………….96 References ………………………………………………………………………………98 Annex 1 ………………...………………………………………………………………...1 Annex 2 …………………………………………………………………………………22 Acronyms and abbreviations ………………………………………………………….24 Introduction The First National Communication of the Republic of Uzbekistan on the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was presented at the Fifth Conference of Parties to the Convention in Bonn in 1999. The key element in the First National Communication was a register of gases having direct and indirect greenhouse effect that do not fall under the Montreal Protocol. The register was compiled in conformity with the 1996 Revised Handbook of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The national register contains an inventory of greenhouse gas sources (GHG) and their emission in the two benchmark years – 1990 and 1994. An essential component of the National Communication was a long-term forecast of GHG emission for the period until 2010, guidelines of activities aiming to reduce GHG emission and a list of interventions in this sector. The First National Communication contains a preliminary assessment of susceptibility to climate change of individual components of the environment and major economic sectors, and outlines possible ways of adaptation to climate change in Uzbekistan. The present Report prepared within the framework of Phase 2 of the Project is a continuation and an integral part of the First National Communication. The specific Project objectives were both to deal with certain shortcomings and improve the National Communication in the following areas: • Identifying priority technological requirements of economic sectors of Uzbekistan in reducing GHG emission and mitigating the negative impact of climate change; studying possible acquisition and use of technologies; assessing and developing specific technological projects. • Undertaking additional studies in vulnerability assessment and developing climate change adaptation interventions. • Strengthening the regional monitoring system and capacity building for participation in the Global Climate Monitoring System (GCMS). Chapter 1 of the Report deals with the technological aspects of GHG emission reduction in the key sectors, namely, power engineering, oil and gas industry, and the chemical sector. The annexes contain proposed technological projects aiming to reduce GHG emission in these sectors. The Report also deals with the problem of a wide application of renewable energy sources as well as some aspects of the investment environment and technology market in the country. Chapter 2 contains the outputs of water resources vulnerability assessment with due regard for the peculiarities of agriculture and water management development and vegetation modelling of several farm crops. The chapter assesses the impact of climate change on the level of thermal pressure on human and animal organisms, and a probability of climatic extremes under various climate change scenarios. It also traces the linkage between climate change and land degradation in the region and presents a list of possible interventions to reduce the negative impact of climate change. The chapter assesses the current condition of the national monitoring network and identifies priority requirements
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