French Presidential Election Prepared for CEVIPOF, Jean Jaurès Foundation and Le Monde

3 April 2017 French Presidential Election Prepared for CEVIPOF, Jean Jaurès Foundation and Le Monde

CONTACTS Brice Teinturier [email protected] Jean-François Doridot [email protected] Federico Vacas [email protected] 1 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 Technical note

SAMPLE DATES OF FIELDWORK METHODOLOGY

14 300 persons registered on the FROM 31 MARCH TO 2 APRIL 2017. ONLINE INTERVIEWS electoral rolls, constituting a QUOTA METHOD: GENDER, AGE, representative national sample of the INDIVIDUAL'S OCCUPATION, French population aged 18 years and REGION, URBAN/RURAL. over.

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As with any quantitative survey, this study presents results subject to the margins of error inherent in statistics. This report has been drawn up in compliance with the international standard ISO 20252 "Market research, social studies and opinion".

2 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interst regarding the Interest for the presidential election coming presidential election? (Note from 0 to 10)

No interest at all Little interest Average interest Sufficient interest Lot of interest (0 à 1) (2 à 3) (4 à 6) (7 à 8) (9 à 10)

3% 3% 15% 26% 53% Average score 8,0

Not interested Quiet interested Interested 6% 15% 79%

3 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interst regarding the Interest for the presidential election coming presidential election? (Note from 0 to 10)

81 80 81 79 80 75 79 Interested 74 71 71 74

20 20 21 21 19 Quite 14 15 14 15 14 15 interested 5 6 8 8 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 Not

Jan. March 2016 May 2016 Sept. 2016 Nov. Dec. 2016 Jan. 2017 Feb. 2017 1-5 March 14-15 March 31 March - interested 2016 2016 2017 2017 2 April 2017

4 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interst regarding the Interest for the presidential election coming presidential election? (Note from 0 to 10)

Average score of interest

8,1 8,1 8,1 7,7 7,6 7,4 7,4 7,6 8,0 8,0 8,0

Janv. March May Sept. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2017 Feb 2017 1-5 March 14-15 March 31 March - 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2 April 2017

5 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on FRENCH ELECTION April 23, 2017. Could you give a score of 0 to 10 on your intention to vote Participation index in the first round of this presidential election?

SYMPATHIZERS

79% 76% 73% 70% 69% 72% 72% 71% 63% 62% 67% 56% 50% PARTICIPATION 66% ST EXG ST ST Aucun GAUCHE DROITE parti

Note: 65% of French people intend to vote in the first round of the Presidential Election, 70% of PS sympathizers, 72% of LR sympathizers, 76% of FN sympathizers, etc. 6 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on April 23, 2017. Could you give a score of 0 to 10 on your intention to vote Participation index- gender, age, in the first round of this presidential election? interviewee’s occupation

GENDER AGE 68% 65% 58% 66% 75% LESS THAN 35 35 TO 64 65 + PARTICIPATION

66% INTERVIEWEE’S OCCUPATION

66% 64% 63% 61% 74% SeniorCadre supérieurExecutive Intermediate Employee Worker Retired profession

7 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question : If the first round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If Voting intention 1st Round the choice is between the following candidates…? Base : Certain to vote, stated intention

Evolution (=) +0,5 +3,5 -2,5 -1 * (=) +0,5 -2 (=) (=) 31 March-2 Avril vs 14-15 March 25 25

17,5 15 10 4 1 1 1 <0,5 0,5

Nicolas Nathalie Philippe Jean-Luc Benoît Emmanuel Jean François Marine Jacques François Dupont- Arthaud Poutou Mélenchon Hamon Macron Lassalle Fillon Le Pen Cheminade Asselineau Aignan

*During last poll, Jean Lassalle’s People certain to vote who have not expressed an 8 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 candidature was not tested, intention to vote FRECNH ELECTION Question : Is your voting choice definite or could you still change your mind ? Likelihood to change mind Base : Certain to go vote According to voting intention

« DEFINITE CHOICE » EVOLUTION% Definite Not decided

Nathalie Arthaud 50 50 64% 59 64 50 53 Philippe Poutou 38 62 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 60 40 Definite Benoît Hamon 52 48 7-12 Février 1-5 mars 14-15 31 March- Emmanuel Macron 61 39 2017 2017 March 2017 2 APril 2017 Jean Lassalle 28 72 36% François Fillon 75 25 Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 37 63 Marine Le Pen Can still change 82 18 9 François Asselineau 62 38 ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION nd Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next Voting intention 2 Round Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If Hypothesis E. Macron versus M. Le Pen the choice is between the following candidates?

Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention REPORTED VOICE

Voting intention Evolution Not 31 March-2 Avril Total vs 14-15 March 1st round decided (=) (=) 

Would vote for 61% 100% J-L. Mélenchon 48% 9% 43%

Would vote for 39% 100% Benoît Hamon 71% 3% 26%

Would vote for 100% François Fillon 37% 32% 31%

Would vote for 100% Emmanuel Marine N. Dupont-Aignan 31% 42% 27% Macron Le Pen

10 20 % of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention ©Ipsos CEVIPOF FJJ LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017 FRENCH ELECTION Question : Is your voting choice definite or could you still change your Likelihood to change mind mind ? Hypothesis E. Macron VS M. Le Pen Evolution Base : Certain to go vote 31 March-2 April Definite Can still change vs 14-15 March « Definite »

All 80 20 +3

Voting intention 85 15 +4 Emmanuel Macron

Voting intention 84 16 +5 Marine Le Pen