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World Bank Document Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized GREATER MONROVIA URBAN REVIEW Public Disclosure Authorized A Spatial Analysis investigating Constraints and Opportunities Public Disclosure Authorized Contents Figures .............................................................................................................................................................. 2 Tables ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 Maps ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Boxes ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Images .............................................................................................................................................................. 5 Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 10 1. Liberia’s Linkages between Urbanization and Economic Growth ........................................................... 13 1.1. Urbanization and Demographic Trends .............................................................................................. 15 1.2. Economy of and Employment in Greater Monrovia ........................................................................... 22 2. Understanding Greater Monrovia’s Constraints to Growth and Prosperity through a Spatial Lens ...... 25 2.1. Density and Fragmentation in Greater Monrovia............................................................................... 25 2.2. The State of Informality and Risk ........................................................................................................ 28 2.3. Housing and Urban Services ............................................................................................................... 34 2.4. Connecting People to Jobs .................................................................................................................. 46 2.5. Monrovia’s Underused Real Estate and Land ..................................................................................... 50 2.6. Congested markets and waste ............................................................................................................ 56 2.7. Skills of Greater Monrovia’s Workers ................................................................................................. 61 3. Greater Monrovia’s Municipal Finance and Governance Challenge and Opportunities ........................ 65 3.1. Political and Administrative Authority is Highly Centralized .............................................................. 66 3.2. Despite centralization, the intergovernmental service delivery relationship is convoluted, leading to inefficiencies in service delivery ..................................................................................................................... 66 3.3. Local Institutions are insufficiently resourced .................................................................................... 67 3.4. Accountability and Transparency in Financial Management and Reporting ...................................... 70 3.5. Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 70 4. Recommendations................................................................................................................................... 72 4.1. Matching roles and responsibilities more effectively across Greater Monrovia’s institutional landscape ........................................................................................................................................................ 72 4.2. Generating fiscal space for urban interventions ................................................................................. 73 4.3. Completing Property and Land Registration for Greater Monrovia ................................................... 74 4.4. Planning and Regulation in support of Greater Monrovia’s territorial development ........................ 76 1 | P a g e 4.5. Making Monrovia cleaner, better connected, more livable, affordable and safer ............................ 77 5. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 81 References, Datasets and Leveraged Studies ................................................................................................ 82 Annex 1: Liberia’s Structural and Aspirational Peers ..................................................................................... 86 Annex 2: Wage Premium Regression Analysis ............................................................................................... 88 Annex 3: Hedonic Regression Analysis .......................................................................................................... 89 Annex 4: Area Calculations from Drone Image Analyses ............................................................................... 91 Annex 5: Real Estate Computations ............................................................................................................... 93 Figures Figure 1: Urbanization and Economic Growth (2000-2018) ............................................................................... 13 Figure 2: Sub-Saharan Africa is urbanizing at a lower GDP per capita than other regions ................................ 14 Figure 3: Loss of GDP (in percent) if capital city were removed (year 2015) ..................................................... 14 Figure 4: Liberia's urbanization level in 2018 is the same as 30 years ago......................................................... 15 Figure 5: Pattern of migration from and to Montserrado (1980 to 2016) ......................................................... 18 Figure 6: Population with migration and no migration background in 2016 (in percent and by county) .......... 20 Figure 7: Population distribution in Liberia and Greater Monrovia ................................................................... 21 Figure 8: Change in the composition of GDP is associated with a modest increase in GDP .............................. 22 Figure 9: Employment shares have barely changed over the past two decades ............................................... 22 Figure 10: Access to finance and electricity top constraints to Liberian firms, 2017 ......................................... 24 Figure 11: Global Competitiveness Index, 2018: Liberia compared to Sub-Saharan Africa ............................... 24 Figure 12: Average population density per hectare and distance from CBD ..................................................... 26 Figure 13: Population density per Square kilometer (2015) ............................................................................... 26 Figure 14: The Puga Index for Greater Monrovia ............................................................................................... 27 Figure 15: Percent of Poor households and Settlements by distance to the City center ................................... 34 Figure 16: Percent Of Tenant Households By Quintile And Distance From The City Center .............................. 35 Figure 17: Estimated Rent, Utilities And Maintenance, Transport, And Food Consumption As A Proportion Of Household Consumption For Tenants In Greater Monrovia .............................................................................. 36 Figure 18: Monthly Rents By Location And Household Quintile......................................................................... 36 Figure 19: Share Of Urban Households Who Can Afford The Least Expensive Newly Built House In 2019 ....... 37 Figure 20: Drinking Water By Consumption Quintile.......................................................................................... 39 Figure 21: Water For Washing By Consumption Quintile ................................................................................... 39 Figure 22: Access To Waste Collection, Water And Electricity By Source And Distance From CBD ................... 40 Figure 23: Waste generation rates in 2016 (kilogram/person/day) ................................................................... 43 Figure 24: Estimated waste collection rates for cities in Sub-Saharan Africa..................................................... 44 Figure 25: System Diagram Of Greater Monrovia’s Waste Management System ............................................. 45 Figure 26: Enterprise Density by zone ................................................................................................................ 46 Figure 27: Employment Density by zone ............................................................................................................ 46 Figure 28: Current mode of Transport
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