Fragile States and Development in West Africa West in Development and States Fragile

Economic Commission for Africa

Fragile States and Development in West Africa

Economic Commission for Africa

February 2012

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

Sub-Regional Ofﬁce for West Africa (ECA/SRO-WA) Design, layout and production by Phoenix Design Aid A/S, Denmark. ISO 14001/ISO 9000 certiﬁed and approved CO2 neutral company – www.phoenixdesignaid.com.

Printed on environmentally friendly paper (without chlorine) with vegetable-based inks. The printed matter is recyclable.

Contents

Foreword Acknowledgements

Introduction

68

9

Chapter 1 The Deﬁnition, Causes and Measurement of Fragility and the Development Challenges Faced by Fragile States: An Overview 14

Chapter 2 Post Conﬂict Reconstruction and Development in Africa:

Challenges and Opportunities

45

65
Chapter 3 Supporting Recovery and Development in Fragile States in West Africa: The Ecowas Experience

Chapter 4 Supporting Development in Fragile States in West Africa:

The African Development Bank Framework

76

89

Chapter 5 Fragility and Development in Guinea

Chapter 6 Fragility and Development in Liberia Chapter 7 Fragility and Development in Niger
149 196

219

Chapter 8 State Fragility in Nigeria: Causes and Possible Solutions

Chapter 9 From Fragility to Sustainable Peace and Development

in Sierra Leone

242

272
Chapter 10 Strengthening Stability for Development in West Africa:
Conclusions and Recommendations

Abbreviations and Acronyms

ACBF

ADB

African Capacity Building Foundation

African Development Bank

AFD

Aide Française au Développement (French Development Agency)

Banque Centrale des Etats d’Afrique de l’Ouest (Central Bank of West African States Banque des Etats d’Afrique Centrale (Bank of Central African States)

Common External Tariff

BCEAO BEAC

CET

CILSS

Comité permanent Inter-Etats de lutte contre la sécheresse au Sahel (Inter-State

Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel) National Council for Democracy and Development (Conseil national pour la dé- mocratie et le développement)
CNDD

DAC ECOWAS EU
Development Assistance Committee Economic Community of West African States European Union
FAO

FCFA

FDI
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation

Franc de la Communauté Financière Africaine (African Financial Community Franc)

Foreign Direct Investment

FSF

Fragile States Facility (FSF)

FSI

Failed State Index

GDP IAG
Gross Domestic Product Index for African Governance
ICT IMF
Information and Communication Technology International Monetary Fund

LICUS

MDGs

NEPAD

OECD

PRSF

PRSP SSA

Low Income Countries under Stress

Millennium Development Goals

New Partnership for Africa’s Development

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Poverty Reduction Strategic Framework

Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Sub- Saharan Africa

UA

Unit of Account (used by ADB)

UEMOA

Union Economique Monétaire Ouest Africaine (West African Economic and Mon-

etary Union)

UNCTAD UNDP
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development United Nations Development Programme

4

UNHCR UNO
United Nations High Commission for Refugees United Nations Organization

USD

United States Dollars

WAEMU WAMZ

WB

West African Economic and Monetary Union West African Monetary Zone

The World Bank Group

Abbreviations and Acronyms

5

FOREWORD

The African continent faces many socio-economic development challenges. Among them is the high

level of political instability and fragility in many countries, and the displacement and impoverishment

this causes on the citizenry. Yet, Africa is not alone in this predicament. The World Development Report (World Bank, 2011) states that an estimated one and a half billion people around the world live in areas affected by fragility, conﬂict and large scale organized criminal violence.

Many countries in West Africa can be classiﬁed as fragile using the commonly indicators of fragility. For example, the Failed State Index for 2008 shows West African countries are either in the alert or warning category with a majority being in the former (Rice and Patrick, 2008). Similarly, the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (Mo, 2010) also shows that most countries in West Africa were in the bottom 25 on the governance ranking. Further, the Index of State Weakness in the Developing World for 2009 shows that eight countries in West Africa were in the top thirty weakest countries in the world. This is the bottom quintile of this fragility ranking. A global analysis of worldwide fragility in 2009 using a group of nine commonly used indicators showed that, with the exception of the Global Peace Index, at least 50% of the world’s ten worst performers are African countries. These data show that there is at least one West African country in each of these top ten states (worst performers). Thus, given the link between political stability and development, these classiﬁcations demonstrate that fragility is indeed a major development challenge in the sub-region.

This publication, “Fragile States and Development in West Africa”, is a synthesis of the empirical ex-

periences and lessons learnt from ﬁve member States of the sub-region on strategies to address fragility and post-conﬂict challenges. The experiences illustrate the diverse nature of the sources of fragility,

the manifestations of fragility and the range of strategies at both national and sub-regional levels to

create a peaceful environment and pursue socio-economic development objectives. The publication emphasizes the importance of good governance (including strengthening of public institutions) in creating a platform on which the social contract between the state and its citizen remains cardinal and stability is upheld. The importance of a fully inclusive approach in dealing with manifestations of fragility to build lasting peace and security are emphasized in the national analyses. This message is carried out throughout the report. Addressing the three pillars, peace, state capacity and economic reconstruction, is presented as imperative to a holistic approach to overcome fragility and post conflict challenges. Importantly, the publication emphasizes the significance of preventing conflict through addressing the potential causes in a timely manner. The publication further re-emphasizes the importance of peace, stability and security to the attainment of development objectives including the Millennium Development Goals.

6

I strongly believe that the recommendations in this publication will help strengthen the policy environment on addressing fragility to ensure that the sub-region takes necessary steps towards maintaining peace and security as a pre-condition to facilitating socio-economic development. The experi-

ences provide comfort in the demonstrated commitment by all countries to address the individual

challenges through assistance from development partners and the support which sub-regional organizations are willing to lend to member States facing challenges.

The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Sub-Regional Ofﬁce for West Africa is committed to collaborating with the ECOWAS Commission and its member States in order to collectively address the socio-economic development challenges in the sub-region. This publication is a demonstration of that commitment. The Commission will continue to engage with the member States of the sub-region to help tackle impediments to sustainable development and work tirelessly towards the enhancement of the livelihoods of citizens.

This publication was made possible through collaboration with the ECOWAS Commission under the

multi-year programme of cooperation, and the input from member States of the sub-region through

active participation in the meeting that reviewed the draft reports and developed the sub-regional recommendations. The Government of Sierra Leone, through the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, provided logistical support during the review meeting.

Fatoumata Sy Ba

Director

ECA Sub-Regional Ofﬁce for West Africa

Foreword

7

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This publication was prepared by Dr. Oliver Maponga and Engr. Joseph Foumbi under the overall supervision of the Director of the Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for West Africa, Mrs. Fatoumata Sy Ba. The comments from colleagues in ECA/SRO-WA enriched this report. The publication benefited from five national reports on Guinea, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria and Sierra

Leone that provided detailed and consolidated experiences in fragility and the strategies employed

to address the challenges.

The Economic Commission for Africa is indebted to the authors of the national reports in this pub-

lication. These national reports complimented the analyses by the ECOWAS Commission and the African Development Bank on sub-regional mechanisms addressing fragility. The comments and recommendations by experts who participated in an ad hoc experts group meeting organized by the ECA Sub-Regional Ofﬁce for West Africa in Freetown, Sierra Leone, in March 2011 further strengthened and enhanced the content and focus of this publication. The ECA/SRO-WA is indebted to the Fragile States Unit of the African Development Bank and to all experts and reviewers who contributed to the focus of this publication. The ECA/SRO-WA acknowledges the contribution of the editor, Dr. Yves Ekoué Amaïzo.

The collaboration with the ECOWAS Commission and the Government of Sierra Leone in the organization of the ad hoc expert group meeting which reviewed the draft reports is greatly appreciated and acknowledged.

The input of all ECA/SRO-WA staff in the successful organization and servicing of the ad hoc experts group meeting laid the foundation for this ﬁnal output.

8

INTRODUCTION

This volume is a collection of the edited papers presented at an ad hoc experts group meeting on Fragile States and Development in West Africa, organized by the United Nations Economic Commission

for Africa Sub-Regional Ofﬁce for West Africa (ECA/SRO-WA) and held in Freetown, Sierra Leone, in March 2011. The meeting was attended by experts from twelve member States of the Economic Com-

munity for West African States, the ECOWAS Commission, the West African Economic and Monetary

Union, the West African Monetary Institute, the African Development Bank, the Central Bank of West

African States, the United Nations Development Program in Sierra Leone, West African Development

Bank, civil society organisations and academic institutions. It deliberated on the challenges faced by fragile states in their pursuit of socio-economic development focusing speciﬁcally on West Africa. The meeting dealt with both conceptual and empirical issues regarding fragility and post-conﬂict reconstruction and development.

The concept of fragility¹has gained prominence in the development discourse during the last twenty years and various development practitioners have coined a plethora of definitions of fragility, in most cases to suit their own focus and objectives. Literature on fragility is replete with debates on the conception and operation of the term fragile states, including what it represents empirically. However, in general, fragility is associated with various combinations of systemic dysfunctions leading to government inefficiency and the breakdown of the social contract. Despite the ever-evolving debate on the definition of the concept of fragile state and the different typologies, most analysts generally describe fragility and fragile states to include countries trapped in violent conflict/crisis or recovering from crisis or conflict and which are generally characterized by weak state capacity and/or a weak state which leave citizens vulnerable to social, political and economic shocks. The weakness of state institutions, deteriorating governance environments, lack of capacity and/or disruption relating to ongoing or recent armed conflict/crisis or violent insecurity are major characteristics of fragility. Fragility impacts negatively on economic growth, social development and jobs creation, which also have the potential to aggravate state fragility and further dent growth and stability prospects. Despite these agreed generalizations about fragility, this classification masks the diversity of the extent and forms of fragile states. In light of the diversity of the nature of fragility, some analysts have questioned the logic of these broad classifications used in development discourse.

Despite the reservations about the correct deﬁnition and accurate measurement of fragility, the phenomenon remains a major development challenge on the continent. A recent report by the African

1

Post-conﬂict states are special cases of fragile states.

Introduction

9

Capacity Building Foundation (2011) alluded to the high levels of fragility in African countries and highlighted the major causes and identified the remedial action necessary. The report highlights that despite recent good economic growth performance, the African continent still has the world’s most extensive history of civil wars and instabilities. For example, the report further observes that, for the period 1990 to 2000, there were 19 armed conflicts and cross-border civil wars in Africa, and that in 1999 alone 16 African countries were in armed conflict. These observations highlight the widespread prevalence of fragility and conflict on the continent. Among other effects, the report echoes the fact that fragility results in high levels of poverty and inequality which in themselves become sources of further instability on the continent. Further, the report alludes to the challenges of post-conflict recov-

ery and notes that extricating a country from fragility requires addressing the often dynamic causes

in a sustainable manner. Understanding the dynamic link between development, fragility, and conﬂict requires an appreciation of the character and determinants of the conﬂict, its duration and intensity. Hence the transfor-

mation of fragile states on the path of stable and sustainable development depends on the resolution

of the challenges of peace building, state building, and economic reconstruction. These three broad areas encapsulate the challenges associated with fragility, and deﬁne the context of any assistance by development partners.

The building of peace involves a range of measures targeted at reducing the risk of lapsing or relapsing into conﬂict, and strengthening of national capacities at all levels for conﬂict management. By

laying the foundations for development, peace building creates fertile ground for the resuscitation of

post-conﬂict countries and provides an environment in which state building can occur. Building the

state is an endogenous process to enhance capacity, institutions and legitimacy of the state driven

by state-society relations. It helps develop effective government based on law and general consent, and hence facilitates the creation and strengthening of the social contract between the state and its citizens. The third pillar relates to building the economy and focuses on resuscitating the foundations of economic and social development, including revamping infrastructure in various sectors ﬁnancial and macroeconomic management, basic service delivery, inclusive growth, addressing manpower challenges, opening the political and democratic space and job creation. The building of the three pillars can occur simultaneously.

Using the foregoing exposition, the various dimensions of these three pillars and the experience of

ﬁve countries, the experts analyzed fragility in West Africa, ascertained its causes, isolated the reme-

dial strategies, and recommended approaches to strengthen peace and stability in the sub-region to

create a stable platform for the furtherance of the objectives of regional integration. Each national re-

port had unique attributes on fragility that created a larger and much more diverse appreciation of the

challenges of fragility and further exposed the weaknesses of using common classiﬁcation schemes for fragility. The accomplishment of the overall objective of developing national and sub-regional

10

recommendations to address fragility challenges was facilitated by the information shared from the background papers and the experiences of experts.

This publication consists of ten Chapters excluding this introduction. In the ﬁrst Chapter, the author provides an overview of the various dimensions of fragility covering deﬁnition, causes and measurement, and alludes to the ongoing debate on these issues. The review of commonly used indicators of fragility helped illustrate the fragile nature of West African countries. The author highlights the importance of a properly functioning state for economic growth, development and poverty reduction strategies. The review echoes that the process of launching fragile states towards stability and development needs to be holistic and should be based on realistic timeframes that accommodate the expectations of all stakeholders. Further, the assistance provided to address

fragility should build sustainable resilience at national level, build both state and private sector ca-

pacity to address skills shortages, and should be rooted in national structures. The second Chapter attributes conﬂict in Africa to poor governance associated with massive viola-

tions of human rights, social and ethnic exclusion, scarcity or inequitable access to lands and distribution of natural resources, share of the revenues from natural resources exploitation, poverty, and

artificial borders lines and claims of territories. The author emphasizes that the post-conflict period commences with the signature of the peace agreement and marks the beginning of the post-conflict reconstruction. Three phases in post-conflict development can be discerned: the emergency phase, the transition phase, and the development phase. Each has its own peculiar attributes and challenges.

The emergency phase aims at establishing a safe and secure environment for humanitarian relief

programmes. The transition phase is often headed by an appointed interim government and ends with the election to set up a popularly-elected administration. The new government then deals with

internal capacity issues including re-establishing basic social services such as education and health,

and the governance mechanisms, rehabilitation and reconstruction with jobs creation and rebuilding economic infrastructure. The author observes that economic reconstruction is critical for the political economy as it ensures smooth transition and the prevention of relapse into conﬂict and focused and visionary leadership is important for post-conﬂict development.

In the third Chapter, the author outlines the ECOWAS framework for supporting recovery and development in fragile states in West Africa. The various Protocols and mechanisms that guide peace and security in West Africa are outlined, and their strengths and weaknesses identified. The harmonious link between the sub-regional processes and the continental peace and security mechanisms is used to demonstrate the overall African context of these initiatives. In this exposition, the author describes how the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, for example, is designed to prevent conflict, ensure peace and stability, good governance and the conduct of credible elections. The active involvement of ECOWAS in its various member States for peace and security purposes is highlighted, with

Introduction

11

speciﬁc example on the challenges and achievements in the sub-region. Conclusions to strengthen

the mechanism are provided including the need for decisive action by the regional body on matters

which threaten peace and security. In Chapter four, the author presents the critical aspects of African Development Bank’s (AfDB) framework for supporting fragile states and focusing on the assistance programmes for countries in West Africa. The author highlights that the purpose of the framework is to enhance the Bank’s operational engagement in Regional Member Countries that are fragile, based on the harmonized AfDB/World Bank fragility rating, which allows for an increased and more differentiated engagement approach. He notes that the Bank has to stay engaged in all its member countries, and that it needs to enhance its engagement in countries emerging from conﬂict and crisis. This is especially important given the marked progress that has been made in recent years in resolving many long running and debilitating conﬂicts. For example, the possibility of successful turnaround is clearly demonstrated by the experience of such countries as Mozambique and Rwanda, where strong country commitment, combined with enhanced and more predictable support from development partners, sustained and accelerated the transition out of fragility. The author observes that building on these lessons to craft more effective engagement in these countries is a priority for the Bank. The Bank’s strategy is underpinned by a