THE RUBIK CUBE OF THE WIDER MIDDLE EAST MICHAEL EMERSON AND NATHALIE TOCCI PREFACE BY CHRIS PATTEN CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES BRUSSELS The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound policy research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe. As a research institute, CEPS takes no position on matters of policy. The views expressed are entirely those of the authors. CEPS Paperbacks present analysis and views by leading experts on important questions in the arena of European public policy. They are written in a style geared to an informed but generalist readership of policy-makers, government officials and corporate executives. Cover design by 6A Architects (www.6A.co.uk). Use of the Rubik’s Cube® is by permission of Seven Towers Ltd. ISBN 92-9079-418-6 © Copyright 2003, Centre for European Policy Studies. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies. Centre for European Policy Studies Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels Tel: 32 (0) 2 229.39.11 Fax: 32 (0) 2 219.41.51 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.ceps.be CONTENTS Preface by Chris Patten i Acknowledgements iii Abstract iv Summary 1 Part I. Crises and Confusion 1. Crises of the Wider Middle East and of the West 13 1.1 Four crises of the Wider Middle East 13 1.2 Confusion of Western strategic ideas 15 Part II. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict 2. The mad logic of escalation 23 2.1 Israel and Palestine 23 2.2 Syria and Lebanon 26 3. Time running out for a two-state solution 28 3.1 One-state solutions 29 3.2 Two-state solutions 35 3.3 One confederation, multiple states 38 4. Evolution of political stances 41 4.1 US power, bias and ambiguity 41 4.2 EU clarity in principle, compromising in practice 43 4.3 Enter the Quartet and Roadmap 47 4.4 Developments in the Arab world and Israeli’s reactions 48 5. Requirements of international law 52 6. Shaping up for the Palestinian state 59 7. Roadmaps and final destinations 67 7.1 The Quartet’s Roadmaps 67 7.2 Accelerated Roadmap 71 7.3 Final destinations 75 Part III. The Wider Middle East 8. Crisis of the Wider Middle East region 86 9. Iraq as cause for a just war? 95 10. Iran as partner or pariah? 106 11. Experiences of regional cooperation 108 11.1 Assessment of Arab initiatives 108 11.2 Assessment of the Madrid process 111 11.3 Assessment of the Barcelona process 113 12. Options for future regional strategies 125 12.1 Security 127 12.2 Economics 131 12.3 Governance and the human dimension 134 12.4 Variable geometry architecture 137 13. The Wider Europe meets the Wider Middle East 142 13.1 Europe’s experiences of regional transformation 142 13.2 Enter the Wider Europe 144 13.3 Future of Israel-EU relations 146 13.4 Muslims within Europe and the harmony of cultures 150 Annexes A. UN Security Council Resolution 242 on the Middle East, 22 November 1967 157 B. Venice Declaration of the European Community on the Middle East, 12-13 June 1980 158 C. President Clinton’s parameters, 23 December 2000 160 D. EU ‘non-paper’, Summary of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks at Taba, (Moratinos Document), January 2001 164 E. Report of the Sharm El-Sheikh fact-finding committee, (Mitchell Report), 30 April 2001 173 F. The Tenet Plan for Security Cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, 13 June 2001 175 G. The Palestinian Vision of Peace by Yasser Arafat, 3 February, 2002 178 H. The Arab Peace Initiative, Declaration of the Arab League, Beirut, 28 March 2002 181 I. The Way Forward in the Middle East by Ariel Sharon, 9 June 2002 183 J. Palestinian Vision for the Outcome of the Permanent Status Negotiations based on the Arab Peace Plan, 12 June 2002 185 K. President Bush’s Middle East address, 24 June 2002 187 L. Statement of Intentions 192 (Nusseibey-Ayalon agreement), 12 September 2002 M. UN Security Council Resolution 1441 addressed to Iraq, 8 November 2002 194 N. Draft Performance-Based Road map to a Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, 20 December 2002 197 O. IRAQ: ‘Non Paper’ [of the French goverment, proposing continued and strengthened inspections by UNMOVIC and the IAEA], 11 February 2003 203 P. Maps 1. Projection of West Bank permanent status, Camp David 208 2. Map of the West Bank as discussed at Taba, January 2001 209 3. Israeli pre-emption of a compromise on Jerusalem 210 4. The Palestinian West Bank - green line and fence 211 References 212 List of Boxes 1. Proposals for the Wider Middle East in outline 11 2. Israeli-Palestinian solutions 28 3. Settlement expansion in the Greater Jerusalem area 30 4. Strengthening Palestinian institutions 60 5. Checkpoints on the draft Roadmap of 20 December 2002 67 6. Sequencing in the draft Roadmap of 20 December 2002 69 7. Proposals for an accelerated Roadmap 74 8. Principles for a possible settlement of the refugee problem 82 9. The Palestinian citizens of Israel 84 10. Arab and Islamic initiatives 110 11. Three dimensions to a regional cooperative system of the Wider Middle East 128 12. Declaration of Religious Leaders of the Holy Land, Alexandria, 21 January 2002 154 List of Tables 1. Results of the Israeli elections of 28 January 2003 51 2. Palestinian refugee population, as of 2002 80 3. Attitudes towards religion, politics, and democracy in 11 Muslim countries 92 4. Estimates of the costs of a potential war in Iraq, in $ billions 100 5. Opinion poll data on war against Iraq 105 6. Bilateral agreements between the EU and the Mediterranean partners 117 7. Policy domains in the Barcelona process 120 List of Figures 1. Average freedom scores, world regions, 1998-99 87 2. Average value of ‘voice and accountability’ indicators 87 3. Problem tree underlying the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership 91 4. The three organisational dimensions of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership 116 PREFACE BY * CHRIS PATTEN t a time when the world’s attention is drawn to the pressing crisis in Iraq, this CEPS report comes as a welcome and important Acontribution to the debate on the political future of this volatile region. Whatever the present preoccupation with Iraq, we must never lose track of the wider political landscape and the geographical and historical context in which current events are taking shape. This report conveys very clearly the extent to which today’s crises in the Wider Middle East are inter- linked, and calls for a comprehensive strategy – I could not agree more. We all share concerns about how the Iraqi crisis may affect the long-term development of the region. Of one thing I have no doubt. There will be no peace in the wider Middle East without a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The EU has played a central role in building the emerging international consensus about the broad outlines of a lasting settlement. Last year, for the first time, the United Nations Security Council unanimously supported a two-state solution that guarantees an end to the Israeli occupation, a viable state for the Palestinians and security for Israel within its borders. This must offer hope. The EU – not least through practical encouragement of the Palestinian reform process – is striving to realise that vision. Our work for a peaceful solution to the Middle East conflict is underpinned by policies to address other wellsprings of discontent in the region. The Barcelona process is a major long-term asset for the Mediterranean littoral and has proved its resilience against a difficult political background. The recent launch of negotiations on an agreement for trade and cooperation with Iran is being pursued in parallel with an intensive political dialogue including human rights, disarmament issues and counter-terrorism. All this reflects a growing determination on both sides to develop constructive relations. The same goes for the EU’s enhanced cooperation with the states of the Gulf Co- operation Council. Last year’s important UNDP report on Human Development in the Arab World drew attention to major shortcomings in the region – not least in the fields of governance, gender-discrimination and education. That report confirmed what has long been the view of the European Union: that regional peace and stability is only ever likely to be achieved on the basis of respect for human rights and democracy, the encouragement of broader educational * Member of the European Commission for external relations. i opportunities, further initiatives to broaden women’s role in society – and to foster trade and investment, and an intensified dialogue between our societies. Against that background, this CEPS paper reaches a number of interesting conclusions. Above all it makes clear that while the progressive transformation of the region is, in the last resort, a responsibility of the countries concerned, the international community has an obligation to support an effort that matters desperately to us all. 13 February 2003 Brussels ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are grateful to many people who have participated in our work on this project since May 2002 through workshops held at CEPS in Brussels, a conference on Halki island in Greece in September, and conversations on the occasion of missions made to Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Syria and the United States.