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Ncsoft (036570 KS) March 10, 2011 Korea-Equity Research NCsoft (036570 KS) Game Chang-kwean Kim +822-768-4321 [email protected] Jee-hyun Moon +822-768-3615 [email protected] Guild Wars 2 to provide a boost to earnings in 2011 Buy (Maintain) Bloomberg: 036570 KS Target Price (12M, W): 330,000 Maintain Buy rating with TP of W330,000 Share Price (03/09/11, W): 248,500 We expect NCsoft’s earnings to stay stable in 1Q11 and gather momentum in March Expected Return (%): 32.8 and April, thanks to a demonstration of Guild Wars 2 at a video game show and the Sector: Game company’s announcement of the closed beta-testing schedule for Blade & Soul. Sector Rating: Overweight Despite the latest rise in share price, we believe that NCsoft’s shares are still close to EPS Growth (11F, %): 27.2 bottom levels (trading at a P/E of 24.5x), considering this year’s plans for new game Market EPS Growth (11F, %): 23.8 launches and the company’s ten-year share performance history. Since 2003, NCsoft’s P/E (X): 24.5 P/E ratios soared to 39.4x~43.4x during years in which it launched new games (such as Market P/E (03/09/11F, x): 9.8 Lineage II and Tabula Rasa). Market Cap (Wbn): 5,419 Improved user indicators for Aion and Lineage I and II in Jan and Feb Shares Outstanding (mn): 22 NCsoft saw user indicators for its games improve in January and February (compared to Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000): 351 4Q10), despite NHN’s successful commercial launch of TERA (a major rival MMORPG) Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn): 74 on January 25th. In addition, the company is likely to hold a promotional event (e.g., the Margin Balance ('000 sh): 181 introduction of a micro-transaction model for Lineage I) for White Day (a day on which Dividend Yield (11F, %): 0.2 men traditionally give candy to women) in late March. As such, contrary to concerns, Free Float (%): 65.2 NCsoft’s earnings are forecast to improve QoQ in 1Q11. 52-Week Low/High: 141,000/273,000 In 1Q11, the average number of monthly unique players of Aion and Lineage I and II is Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return): 0.7 believed to have increased QoQ by 7.0%, 5.3%, and 21.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Price Return Volatility (12M Daily,%,SD): 2.6 average number of concurrent users of Aion and Lineage I and II at internet cafés during January~February is believed to have shown respective QoQ growth of 3.3%, 2.0%, and 6.9%. Foreign Ownership (%): 26.7 Major Shareholder(s): Demonstration of Guild Wars 2 to boost earnings momentum TJ Kim and et. al (25.44%) NCsoft’s Seattle-based wholly-owned subsidiary ArenaNet (a developer of Guild Wars) Treasury stock (9.35%) is slated to demonstrate Guild Wars 2 (for the third time) at PAX East 2011, a video NPS (5.01%) game show to be held this weekend in Boston. The company will run booths together Price Performance with graphics card companies (like Alienware and NVIDIA), where users will get access to Guild Wars 2. ArenaNet also plans to hold Q&A sessions and seminars, and release (%) 1M 6M 12M details about additional game content, such as game characters. Given that Guild Wars Absolute 13.5 3.3 76.9 2 is highly anticipated to become a blockbuster in the U.S., this showcase should Relative 15.6 -8.8 56.4 brighten NCsoft’s earnings outlook. Share price FY Sales OP OP MarginNP EPS EBITDAFCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 200 KOSPI (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (W) (Wbn)(Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 180 160 12/08 240 46 19.0 27 1,334 57 10 6.4 39.4 2.6 15.6 140 12/09 453 200 44.1 183 8,560 213 234 34.8 17.5 5.1 13.3 120 100 12/10P 515 251 48.7 174 7,985 264 192 24.2 26.1 5.7 15.0 80 12/11F 589 294 49.9 222 10,160 308 254 24.3 24.5 5.4 14.9 60 12/12F 820 460 56.1 390 17,881 475 403 32.3 13.9 3.9 8.8 40 3/10 7/10 11/10 3/11 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates Please read carefully important notices at the end of this report. March 10, 2011 NCsoft Figure 1. Unique user trend Quarterly 4Q10 1Q11 average (Users) Aion 218,212 233,541 Lineage 157,440 165,788 300,000 Aion Lineage Lineage 2 Lineage2 75,225 91,148 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 10/10 11/10 12/10 1/11 2/11 Note: Monthly data, Source: Koreanclick, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 2. Average concurrent user trend at internet cafes Quarterly 4Q10 1Q11 average (Users) Aion 51,503 53,216 Lineage 10,410 10,621 60,000 Aion Lineage Lineage 2 Lineage2 10,852 11,600 45,000 30,000 15,000 0 10/10 11/10 12/10 1/11 2/11 Note: Average daily data per month, Source: Gametrics, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 3. Time share trend at internet cafes 25% Aion Lineage 1 Lineage 2 WoW TERA 20% 17.64% 15% 11.91% 10% 5% 0% 10/10 11/10 12/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 Note: Daily data, Source: Gametrics, Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 2 March 10, 2011 NCsoft Figure 4. Trend of total time spent at internet cafes Quarterly 4Q10 1Q11 ('000 hours) average Aion 1,232 1,272 1,600 Aion Lineage Lineage 2 Lineage 249 254 Lineage2 260 278 1,200 800 400 0 10/10 11/10 12/10 1/11 2/11 Note: Average daily data per month Source: Gametrics, Daewoo Securities Research Table 1. Anticipated MMORPG ranking in the U.S. Game name Developer Voting 1 Guild Wars 2 ArenaNet (NCsoft) 8.70 2 Star Wars: The Old Republic BioWare 7.96 3 TERA Bluehole Studio (NHN) 7.93 4 Blade & Soul NCsoft 7.91 5 The Secret World Funcom 7.89 6 All Points Bulletin Realtime Worlds 7.87 7 Gods and Heroes: Rome Rising Heatwave Interactive 7.85 8 Infinity: The Quest for Earth Flavien Brebion 7.85 9 The Agency Sony Online 7.85 10 Firefall Red 5 Studio 7.85 Note: As of March 7, 2011, ranking of games in development Source: MMORPG.COM, Daewoo Securities Research Table 2. Anticipated game ranking in China Game name Developer Voting 1 Blade & Soul NCsoft 52,786 2 C9 NHN 43,124 3 Dragon Ball Online Ntl-inc (Shanda) 38,026 4 星辰变 Shanda 34,847 5 九阴真经 Snail Game 33,847 6 洛奇英雄传 Nexon 33,106 7 TERA Bluehole Studio (NHN) 33,060 8 鹿鼎记 Sohu ChangYou 32,990 9 Ghost Story Online NetEase 32,745 10 佣兵天下 LineKong 32,531 Note: As of March 7, 2011 Source: 17173.COM, Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 3 March 10, 2011 NCsoft Figure 5. Screenshot of Guild Wars II Source: ArenaNet (NCsoft), Daewoo Securities Research Figure 6. Unveiling ofGuild Wars II at GameCom in 2010 Source: shutterstock.com, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 7. New game release date and P/E trend (x) Lineage 2 Tabula Rasa Aion 80 Forward P/E Guild Wars 2 62.4 and Blade & Soul Korea Media 60 to be launched Rating Board in 2011 revised 45.1 43.4 41.9 the minimum 39.4 40 age to play Earnings 34.2 Lineage I surprise from 15 to 18 thanks to 24.5 (regulatory risk) Aion 20 22.3 20.4 17.3 18.3 7.6 6.1 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11F Source: Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 4 March 10, 2011 NCsoft Figure 8. Share performance and domestic institutional investorsÊ net buying trend ('000 shares) (W) 2,000 Shares held by institutional investor (L) 300,000 Share price (R) 1,000 250,000 0 200,000 Share price -1,000 of W200,000 Current position 150,000 is similar to early- December -2,000 100,000 1/10 4/10 7/10 10/10 1/11 Source: Daewoo Securities Research Figure 9. Share performance and foreign ownership trend (%) (W) 40 % of shares held by foreigners (L) 300,000 Share price (R) 35 250,000 30 200,000 25 150,000 Share price of W131,500 20 100,000 1/10 4/10 7/10 10/10 1/11 Source: Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 5 March 10, 2011 NCsoft NCsoft (036570 KS/Buy/TP: W330,000) Income Statement (Summarized) Balance Sheet (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/09 12/10P 12/11F 12/12F (Wbn) 12/09 12/10P 12/11F 12/12F Sales 453 515 589 820 Current Assets 493 688 938 1,383 Cost of Goods Sold 89 79 92 110 Cash and Cash Equivalents 18 -15 45 150 Gross Profit 363 436 498 710 Accounts Receivable 47 60 69 96 SG&A 163 185 204 250 Inventories 0 0 0 0 Operating Profit 200 251 294 460 Other Current Assets 429 643 824 1,137 Non-Operating Income 28 -26 -17 175 Non-Current Assets 287 308 318 337 Interest Income/Expense 14 22 31 45 Investment Assets 128 143 147 162 F/X-Related Gain/Loss -3 3 0 0 Property, Plant and Equipment 157 161 164 168 Equity Method Gain/Loss 17 -12 -30 148 Intangible Assets 3 5 7 8 Asset Disposal Gain/Loss -1 0 0 0 Total Assets 781 997 1,256 1,720 Other Non-Operating Profit/Loss 0 -38 -18 -18 Current Liabilities 130 134 154 214 Pretax Profit 227 225 277 487 Accounts Payable 0 0 0 0 Tax 45 51 55 97 Short-Term Debt 0 0 0 0 Profit from Continuing Operation 183 174 222 390 Current Long-Term Debt 0 0 0 0 Profit from Discontinued Operation 0 0 0 0 Other Current Liabilities 130 134 154 214 Tax Effect 0 0 0 0 Non-Current Liabilities 16 58 69 92 Net Profit 183 174 222 390 Bonds 0 0 0 0 Residual Income 183 174 222 390 Long-Term Debt 0 0 0 0 EBITDA 213 264 308 475 Other Non-Current Liabilities 16 58 69 92 Free Cash Flow 234 192 254 403 Total Liabilities 146 192 222 306 Gross Profit Margin (%) 80.2 84.7 84.4 86.6 Paid-In Capital 11 11 11 11 EBITDA Margin (%) 47.0 51.2 52.3 57.9 Capital Surplus 204 211 211 211 Operating Margin (%) 44.1 48.7 49.9 56.1 Retained Earnings 518 682 894 1,274 Net Margin (%) 40.3 33.8 37.6 47.5 Stockholders' Equity 635 804 1,016 1,396 Cash Flow (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/09 12/10P 12/11F 12/12F 12/09 12/10P 12/11F 12/12F Cash Flow from Operating Activities 246 207 269 418 P/E (x) 17.5 26.1 24.5 13.9 Net Profit 183 174 222 390 P/CF (x) 16.5 23.3 18.5 10.8 Non-Cash Income and Expense 8 31 46 17 P/B (x) 5.1 5.7 5.4 3.9 Tangible Assets Depreciation 11 11 11 12 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.3 15.0 14.9 8.8 Intangible Assets Depreciation 3 2 3 3 EPS (W) 8,560 7,985 10,160
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