Nowcasting Earthquakes in Sulawesi Island, Indonesia Sumanta Pasari (
[email protected] ) Birla Institute of Technology and Science https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8498-8746 Andrean VH Simanjuntak Indonesian Agency for Climatology and Geophysics: Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geosika Yogendra Sharma Birla Institute of Technology and Science Research Letter Keywords: Natural times, nowcast scores, Sulawesi Island, probability models Posted Date: December 21st, 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-128975/v1 License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Read Full License Version of Record: A version of this preprint was published at Geoscience Letters on July 28th, 2021. See the published version at https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-021-00197-5. Nowcasting Earthquakes in Sulawesi Island, Indonesia Sumanta Pasari1, Andrean VH Simanjuntak2, and Yogendra Sharma1 ABSTRACT Large devastating events such as earthquakes often display frequency-magnitude statistics that exhibit power-law distribution. In this study, we implement a new method of nowcasting (Rundle et al. 2016) to evaluate the current state of earthquake hazards in the seismic prone Sulawesi province, Indonesia. The nowcasting technique considers statistical behavior of small event counts, known as natural times, to infer the seismic progression of large earthquake cycles in a defined region. To develop natural time statistics in the Sulawesi Island, we employ four probability models, namely exponential, exponentiated exponential,