Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: 43169 August 2010 INDIA: Integrated Water Resources Management Scoping Study for Sutlej River Basin, Himachal Pradesh: Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation (Financed by the Water Financing Partnership Facility Resources, RSID) Part 1 – Summary Report For: Asian Development Bank Government of India and Government of Himachal Pradesh This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. In preparing any country partnership strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Asian Development Bank IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh: Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation FINAL REPORT April 2011 PREPARED FOR Asian Development Bank Government of India Government of Himachal Pradesh IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh ii Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation -Final Report Executive Summary INTRODUCTION In June 2010, ADB prepared a „Climate Change Adaptation-Focused Water Resources Strategy for Himachal Pradesh1. The strategy presented a seven point roadmap for climate adaptation. As a follow up to this study, the Government of India requested ADB to support a follow on scoping study2 designed to build and develop the ideas from the roadmap with specific application to the Satluj River Basin in Himachal Pradesh. The Satluj basin holds a large number of water, environment and development issues; the study is directed at identifying and assessing key issues and requirements to meet the needs of sustainability, environmentally appropriate development, as well as adaptation towards addressing vulnerabilities from climate change. The strategy identifies the need to develop an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach to water resources planning and management. PROJECTED CLIMATE IMPACTS The study analyses and presents the projected climate changes by mid century. Climate projections are complex mountain the area and accuracy of the projections remains an issue. It is estimated that by mid century temperatures would rise by 20C, monsoon precipitation would increase by 15%, and frequencies of intense rainfall storms would increase. The impacts of these changes on the catchments have been assessed and summarised below: o Snow and glacier loss: in the initial period reduced snowmelt due to evaporation will be largely compensated by increased glacier melt; in the longer term, however, a gradual decline in the combined melt flows will occur. The time scale very much depends on the elevation, in the lower level catchments some decline is already occurring and lower level tributaries will most affected in the short to medium term. From various research studies, an indicative loss of 50-60% of glaciers might be expected over the next thirty years3. o Sediment: in the increased melt rates, increased monsoon and increased number of intense rain events all point to increased silt levels. The strengthened summer monsoon is also likely to increase the chance of incursion of monsoon rains into the desert areas of Spiti and PRC, with likely significant increases in sediment load and risk of destabilisation including avalanche blockages and Glacier Lake Floods. o Temperature increases will affect agriculture production, changes of agriculture systems at different elevations will become necessary to accommodate increased temperature. DEVELOPMENT ISSUES Impacts from the hydro power projects have been significant, however, lessons have been learnt and the newer schemes have moved towards more effectively tackling some of the social and environmental issues. Despite these efforts the level of disquiet and protest currently targeted against power projects is becoming an increasing issue. The planned schemes as well as schemes under construction need changes in approaches to planning and management with development of new and participative approaches. There are now some arguments against the development of high altitude hydro schemes and the need to keep parts of the catchment undeveloped. Tributary rivers which cater to a large population for their water and irrigation needs are especially sensitive. 1 TA 6498 REG: Knowledge and Innovation Support for ADB‟S Water Financing Program April 2010 2 Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Scoping Study for the Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh: Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation” 3 Empirical estimates of glacier volumes have been made by Geological Survey of India and Palampur Unversity. Melt rates have been estimated for the Spiti valley by Berthier et al. From these indicative annual loss of volume have been derived. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh iii Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation -Final Report The study reviews issues in relation to water supplies, irrigation, catchments, fisheries and the environment and suggests possible strategies to meet the needs of present issues as well as climate adaptation. STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK PLAN The development of the Satluj to date has been a major achievement and has brought very significant benefit to the region and the state. Local communities have developed and in the main have benefited through the hydropower programme as well as parallel government initiatives including development of agriculture, irrigation, potable water, roads and power. Fragmented institutions and rush to develop hydropower projects with less than optimum level of investigation, implementation controls and lack of effective and timely implementation of environmental and social mitigation, have however left many issues unaddressed. There are many outstanding environmental issues which have yet to be fully resolved and there is now a strong and increasing opposition to the hydro power projects. Climate change will have significant effects on the basin and it is important for the Government to address both the existing and additional challenges from climate change. The strategic framework plan identifies seven key strategies areas to address present issues as well as directions towards the impacts of climate change adaptation. The seven components of the strategy include: o Effective Institutions for IWRM: establishment of viable institutional structures to support IWRM; increasing community participation in water planning and management; institutional development and training; establishment of a State Water Resources Steering Committee and Water Regulatory Authority. o Water Resources Data and Information Systems: support for state of the art information systems covering: water, snow, glaciers; implementation of climate change projections and simulations and support for rainfall forecasting; flood warning and glacier monitoring systems. o River and Catchment Restoration and Management: restoration of parts of river and catchments most impacted by ongoing and completed infrastructure; overall management of soil and water conservation of catchments with focus on maintaining sustainable water supplies; new initiatives and timely implementation of Catchment Area Treatment (CAT) plans; control and regulation of environmental flows; remediation of muck dumping sites; special treatment to protect major potential disaster and risk areas including flood; land slips; washouts; avalanche and glacier lakes. o Sustainable Planning and Management of Hydropower: improved and coordinated management of ongoing schemes; support for management of sediment; integrated planning for remaining planned schemes; improved participation and consultative planning and management; improved environmental mitigation; coordinated and standardized compensation packages; investment in small hydropower schemes and ancillary works o Sustainable Irrigation and Agriculture: upgrading of service delivery and performance of irrigation schemes; development of precision agriculture; support to adjust to temperature impacts on agriculture; protection of long term sustainable water sources under climate change conditions; investment in irrigation and agriculture. o Sustainable Water Supply and Sanitation Systems: long term and sustainable water supply and sanitation systems under climate change conditions. Development of improved service delivery and appropriate cost recovery; assessment of new technologies and implementing pilots for new initiatives including water harvesting; water reuse; combined water supply/irrigation systems; upgrading of water supply and sanitation investments based on outcomes of pilot schemes. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh iv Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation -Final Report o Support for Rural Enterprises, Training and Awareness support for diversification and off- farm incomes to buffer against climate change impacts. Opening of new employment opportunities to reduce dependence on agriculture and hydropower; special support for lower income agriculture dependant families most vulnerable to climate change; provision of training and awareness to communities to better understand the issues of climate change