Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report
Project Number: 43169 August 2010
INDIA: Integrated Water Resources Management Scoping Study for Sutlej River Basin, Himachal Pradesh: Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation (Financed by the Water Financing Partnership Facility Resources, RSID)
Part 1 – Summary Report
For: Asian Development Bank Government of India and Government of Himachal Pradesh
This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.
In preparing any country partnership strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.
Asian Development Bank IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh: Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation
FINAL REPORT April 2011
PREPARED FOR Asian Development Bank Government of India Government of Himachal Pradesh IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh ii Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation -Final Report
Executive Summary
INTRODUCTION
In June 2010, ADB prepared a „Climate Change Adaptation-Focused Water Resources Strategy for Himachal Pradesh1. The strategy presented a seven point roadmap for climate adaptation. As a follow up to this study, the Government of India requested ADB to support a follow on scoping study2 designed to build and develop the ideas from the roadmap with specific application to the Satluj River Basin in Himachal Pradesh.
The Satluj basin holds a large number of water, environment and development issues; the study is directed at identifying and assessing key issues and requirements to meet the needs of sustainability, environmentally appropriate development, as well as adaptation towards addressing vulnerabilities from climate change. The strategy identifies the need to develop an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach to water resources planning and management.
PROJECTED CLIMATE IMPACTS
The study analyses and presents the projected climate changes by mid century. Climate projections are complex mountain the area and accuracy of the projections remains an issue. It is estimated that by mid century temperatures would rise by 20C, monsoon precipitation would increase by 15%, and frequencies of intense rainfall storms would increase. The impacts of these changes on the catchments have been assessed and summarised below:
o Snow and glacier loss: in the initial period reduced snowmelt due to evaporation will be largely compensated by increased glacier melt; in the longer term, however, a gradual decline in the combined melt flows will occur. The time scale very much depends on the elevation, in the lower level catchments some decline is already occurring and lower level tributaries will most affected in the short to medium term. From various research studies, an indicative loss of 50-60% of glaciers might be expected over the next thirty years3.
o Sediment: in the increased melt rates, increased monsoon and increased number of intense rain events all point to increased silt levels. The strengthened summer monsoon is also likely to increase the chance of incursion of monsoon rains into the desert areas of Spiti and PRC, with likely significant increases in sediment load and risk of destabilisation including avalanche blockages and Glacier Lake Floods.
o Temperature increases will affect agriculture production, changes of agriculture systems at different elevations will become necessary to accommodate increased temperature.
DEVELOPMENT ISSUES
Impacts from the hydro power projects have been significant, however, lessons have been learnt and the newer schemes have moved towards more effectively tackling some of the social and environmental issues. Despite these efforts the level of disquiet and protest currently targeted against power projects is becoming an increasing issue. The planned schemes as well as schemes under construction need changes in approaches to planning and management with development of new and participative approaches. There are now some arguments against the development of high altitude hydro schemes and the need to keep parts of the catchment undeveloped. Tributary rivers which cater to a large population for their water and irrigation needs are especially sensitive.
1 TA 6498 REG: Knowledge and Innovation Support for ADB‟S Water Financing Program April 2010 2 Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Scoping Study for the Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh: Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation” 3 Empirical estimates of glacier volumes have been made by Geological Survey of India and Palampur Unversity. Melt rates have been estimated for the Spiti valley by Berthier et al. From these indicative annual loss of volume have been derived. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh iii Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation -Final Report
The study reviews issues in relation to water supplies, irrigation, catchments, fisheries and the environment and suggests possible strategies to meet the needs of present issues as well as climate adaptation.
STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK PLAN
The development of the Satluj to date has been a major achievement and has brought very significant benefit to the region and the state. Local communities have developed and in the main have benefited through the hydropower programme as well as parallel government initiatives including development of agriculture, irrigation, potable water, roads and power.
Fragmented institutions and rush to develop hydropower projects with less than optimum level of investigation, implementation controls and lack of effective and timely implementation of environmental and social mitigation, have however left many issues unaddressed. There are many outstanding environmental issues which have yet to be fully resolved and there is now a strong and increasing opposition to the hydro power projects. Climate change will have significant effects on the basin and it is important for the Government to address both the existing and additional challenges from climate change.
The strategic framework plan identifies seven key strategies areas to address present issues as well as directions towards the impacts of climate change adaptation. The seven components of the strategy include:
o Effective Institutions for IWRM: establishment of viable institutional structures to support IWRM; increasing community participation in water planning and management; institutional development and training; establishment of a State Water Resources Steering Committee and Water Regulatory Authority. o Water Resources Data and Information Systems: support for state of the art information systems covering: water, snow, glaciers; implementation of climate change projections and simulations and support for rainfall forecasting; flood warning and glacier monitoring systems. o River and Catchment Restoration and Management: restoration of parts of river and catchments most impacted by ongoing and completed infrastructure; overall management of soil and water conservation of catchments with focus on maintaining sustainable water supplies; new initiatives and timely implementation of Catchment Area Treatment (CAT) plans; control and regulation of environmental flows; remediation of muck dumping sites; special treatment to protect major potential disaster and risk areas including flood; land slips; washouts; avalanche and glacier lakes. o Sustainable Planning and Management of Hydropower: improved and coordinated management of ongoing schemes; support for management of sediment; integrated planning for remaining planned schemes; improved participation and consultative planning and management; improved environmental mitigation; coordinated and standardized compensation packages; investment in small hydropower schemes and ancillary works o Sustainable Irrigation and Agriculture: upgrading of service delivery and performance of irrigation schemes; development of precision agriculture; support to adjust to temperature impacts on agriculture; protection of long term sustainable water sources under climate change conditions; investment in irrigation and agriculture. o Sustainable Water Supply and Sanitation Systems: long term and sustainable water supply and sanitation systems under climate change conditions. Development of improved service delivery and appropriate cost recovery; assessment of new technologies and implementing pilots for new initiatives including water harvesting; water reuse; combined water supply/irrigation systems; upgrading of water supply and sanitation investments based on outcomes of pilot schemes. IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh iv Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation -Final Report
o Support for Rural Enterprises, Training and Awareness support for diversification and off- farm incomes to buffer against climate change impacts. Opening of new employment opportunities to reduce dependence on agriculture and hydropower; special support for lower income agriculture dependant families most vulnerable to climate change; provision of training and awareness to communities to better understand the issues of climate change development and opportunities for diversification; supports to access credit for small enterprises including initiatives for precision agriculture, aquaculture, agriculture processing, tourism, etc.
ROADMAP FOR IMPLEMENTATION
It is proposed to establish a 'Satluj River Basin Sustainability Project' to address the complex ongoing development, environmental and potential climate issues of the Satluj River Basin in Himachal Pradesh. The project would put into place wide ranging initiatives, programmes and investments to meet the needs of river and catchment restoration, water resources development, climate adaptation and long term environmental and social sustainability of the Satluj river basin. An eight year programme is proposed and would be implemented under the auspices of a Water Resources Steering Committee. The Steering Committee (WRSC) will be led by the principal secretaries of the water resource sectors and supported by specialist experts from within Government or elsewhere.
The focus would be to address continued and sustainable development of hydropower, agriculture and irrigation within a framework of sustainability of the water resources, catchments, and communities incorporating the likely impacts of climate change. The project would require to be based on a fully IWRM approach.
Implementation would be through a new 'special project agency'. The agency would be established for the project period, after which it would possible to hand over to the strengthened and better integrated sector agencies.
The programme would be integrated involving the key water sector agencies, the local authorities and private sector developers working through the 'special project agency'. The agency would implement the program in coordination with the sector departments at State and District level, Panchayats and district administration. The District Planning Committees would be strengthened to support the planning and management of water resources.
The project agency would be manned by a small core of carefully selected government staff on secondment including a senior project director. Specialist staff and consultants would be recruited as required. The project agency would strengthen and help develop better coordinated sectors within the four districts of the Satluj valley.
The project would in parallel work at the state level to instigate institutional reforms and strengthening of the water sector departments. The establishment of IWRM and institutional reforms is critical towards the long term sustainability of water resources in the State. Institutional reforms would be implemented in stages and would include the establishment of an independent water regulator.
The project would provide investment support in five key areas: o River and sub-catchment restoration and management; o Investments in small hydropower and ancillary requirements to existing schemes o Sustainable irrigation and agriculture; o Sustainable water supplies and sanitation; and o Support for rural enterprises and diversification.
IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh v Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation -Final Report
GLOSSARY
A1B IPCC Climate Change Scenario A1 assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. A1 is divided into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy resources (A1T) and a balance across all sources (A1B). A2 IPCC climate change Scenario A2 describes a very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic development and slow. ADB Asian Development Bank AR4 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report AR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report AWM Adaptive Water Management B1 IPCC climate change Scenario B1 describes a convergent world, with the same global population as A1, but with more rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy. B2 IPCC climate change Scenario B2 describes a world with intermediate population and economic growth, emphasising local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. BBMB Bhakra Beas Management Board BCM Billion Cubic Metres BSL Beas Satluj Link CAD Command Area Development CADA Command Area Development Authority CA Compensatory Afforestation CAT Catchment Area Treatment CBO Community Based Organisation CGWB Central Ground Water Board CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - an IPCC initiative to compare climate models CSK HPAU CSK Himachal Pradesh Agricultural University cusecs cubic feet per second CWC Central Water Commission DEA Department of Economic Affairs DEM Digital Elevation Model DEST Department of Environment, Science and Technology DIPH Department of Irrigation and Public Health DPC District Planning Committee DOA Department of Agriculture DSS Decision Support System DSSAT Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EMC Environmental Monitoring Committee EMP Environmental Management Plan ETo Evapotranspiration FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations FD Forest Department FYP Five Year Plan GCM Global Circulation or Climate Model GIS Geographic Information Systems GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Flood GoHP Government of Himachal Pradesh GoI Government of India GSI Geological Survey of India GW Groundwater HAM Hectare Metres HEP Hydroelectric Project HIMURJA Himachal Pradesh Energy Development Agency HP Himachal Pradesh HP2 Hydrology Project 2 supported by World Bank HPPCB Himachal Pradesh Pollution Control Board HPPCL Himachal Pradesh Hydropower Corporation Ltd. I&D Irrigation and Drainage ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IMD Indian Meteorological Department INCCA Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment IPCC International Panel for Climate Change
IWRM Scoping Study for Satluj River Basin, Himachal Pradesh vi Improving Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation -Final Report
ISRO Indian Space Research Organisation IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management l/s/ha litre per second per hectare m3 Cubic Meters MCM Million Cubic Meters MNREGA National Rural Employment Guarantee Act MOA Ministry of Agriculture MOEF Ministry of Environment and Forests MOHC Met Office Hadley Centre (UK) MOU Memorandum of Understanding MOWR Ministry of Water Resources NAPCC National Action Plan for Climate Change NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NIH National Institute of Hydrology NWM National Water Mission of the NAPCC O&M Operation & Maintenance PATA Policy Advisory Technical Assistance PIM Participatory Irrigation Management Polyhouse Polythene clad greenhouse PPP Public Private Partnerships PRA Participatory Rural Appraisal PRC Peoples Republic of China PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies PRI Panchayati Raj Institutions PWD Public Works Department QUMP Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions – is an approach which aims to provide probabilistic predictions of future climate. RBO River Basin Organisation RCM Regional Climate Model RTDSS Real Time Data Support Systems SAPCC State Action Plans for Climate Change SEA State Executing Agency S-NWM ADB Support TA to the National Water Mission of the NAPCC SRES Special Report on Omissions Scenarios SRTM90 A DEM with 90m resolution developed by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission SUDS Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWC Soil and Water Conservation TA Technical Assistance TOR Terms of Reference ULB Urban Local Bodies WRSC Water Resource Steering Committee WRO Water Resources Organisation WUA Water Users‟ Association
PART 1 SUMMARY REPORT PART 1 SUMMARY REPORT -TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION ...... 1 II. WATER RESOURCES OF THE SATLUJ RIVER ...... 1 A. TRENDS FOR PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE, SNOW AND GLACIERS ...... 4 III. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 5 A. SNOW AND GLACIERS...... 7 IV. WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND ISSUES ...... 9 A. HYDROPOWER ...... 9 B. IRRIGATION AND WATER SUPPLIES ...... 10 C. FORESTS AND CATCHMENTS ...... 11 D. AGRICULTURE ...... 11 E. FLOOD...... 12 V. ENVIRONMENT ...... 13 A. SUMMARY OF HYDROPOWER IMPACTS ...... 14 VI. SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACTS ...... 17 VII. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK ...... 18 A. INTEGRATION OF WATER ISSUES...... 18 B. INSTITUTIONAL PROPOSAL ...... 19 VIII. STRATEGIC FRAMWEWORK PLAN FOR THE SATLUJ RIVER ...... 20 A. ANALYSIS OF PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES ...... 20 B. STRATEGY FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 21 C. FOCAL AREAS OF THE FRAMEWORK STRATEGY ...... 21 IX. ROAD MAP FOR IMPLEMENTATION ...... 27 A. SATLUJ RIVER BASIN SUSTAINABILITY PROJECT ...... 27 B. ORGANISATION ...... 27 C. REQUIREMENTS FOR EXTERNAL SUPPORT ...... 28 D. PROJECT SCOPE...... 28 E. PROJECT SCHEDULE ...... 31
FIGURES
FIGURE 1 SATLUJ CATCHMENT ...... 1 FIGURE 2 - WHOLE SATLUJ CATCHMENT ...... 2 FIGURE 3 SATLUJ DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL ...... 2 FIGURE 4 RIVER FLOWS AT KHAB ...... 3 FIGURE 5 BHAKRA INFLOW DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN FLOW ...... 3 FIGURE 6 GLACIERS IN THE SATLUJ ...... 4 FIGURE 7 PREDICTED CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE ...... 6 FIGURE 8 PERCENT CHANGE IN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TO MID CENTURY ...... 7 FIGURE 9 KARCHHAM DAM ...... 9 FIGURE 10 POLYHOUSE TO SUPPORT PRECISION AGRICULTURE ...... 12 FIGURE 11 SPITI VALLEY ...... 14 FIGURE 12 HEAD RACE TUNNEL RAMPUR HEP ...... 16 FIGURE 13 PROPOSED CRICKET PITCH AT KASHANG HEP ...... 17 FIGURE 14 SATLUJ SUSTAINABILITY PROJECT ...... 28 FIGURE 15 PROJECT SCHEDULE ...... 31
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TABLES
TABLE 1 COMPARISON OF GLACIER ESTIMATES ...... 4 TABLE 2 INDICATIVE SNOW AND GLACIER CHANGES HIMACHAL PRADESH SATLUJ ...... 8 TABLE 3 SUMMARY OF MAIN HYDROPOWER IMPACTS ...... 14 TABLE 4 INSTITUTIONAL PROPOSAL ...... 19 TABLE 5 FOCAL AREA 1: EFFECTIVE INSTITUTIONS FOR INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT .... 21 TABLE 6: FOCAL AREA 2: WATER RESOURCES DATA AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS ...... 22 TABLE 7: FOCAL AREA 3: RIVER AND CATCHMENT RESTORATION AND MANAGEMENT ...... 23 TABLE 8: FOCAL AREA 4 SUSTAINABLE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF HYDROPOWER ...... 24 TABLE 9: FOCAL AREA 5 SUSTAINABLE IRRIGATION AND AGRICULTURE ...... 25 TABLE 10: FOCAL AREA 6 SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLIES AND SANITATION ...... 25 TABLE 11: FOCAL AREA 7 SUPPORT FOR RURAL ENTERPRISES, DIVERSIFICATION, TRAINING AND AWARENESS ...... 26 TABLE 12 POSSIBLE AREAS FOR INVESTMENT AND SUPPORT IN THE SATLUJ BASIN ...... 30 1
Part 1 Summary Report
I. INTRODUCTION
1. In June 2010, ADB prepared a „Climate Change Adaptation-Focused Water Resources Strategy for Himachal Pradesh4. The strategy presented a seven point roadmap for climate adaptation for the State. As a follow up to this study the Government of India requested ADB to support a follow on scoping study designed to build and develop the ideas from the roadmap with specific application to the Satluj River Basin in Himachal Pradesh.
2. The Satluj basin holds a large number of water, environment and development issues; the study is directed at identifying and assessing key issues and requirements to meet the needs of sustainability and environmentally appropriate development, as well as adaptation towards addressing the likely vulnerabilities from climate change. The strategy identifies the need to develop an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach to water resources planning and management
II. WATER RESOURCES OF THE SATLUJ RIVER
3. The Satluj is the largest of the five main river systems in Himachal Pradesh. It enters Himachal Pradesh just upstream of the confluence with the Spiti river at the Khab river. From here it flows south westerly through Kinnaur, Shimla, Solan and Bilaspur districts. The river leaves Himachal Pradesh and enters Punjab at Bhakhra. The Satluj finally drains into the Indus in Pakistan. The Indian Catchment is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 Satluj Catchment
4 TA 6498 (REG):) Knowledge and Innovation Support for ADB‟sADB‟S Water Financing Program April 2010 2
4. The total catchment area of the Satluj river up to Bhakra dam is about 56,874km2 of which 37,153km2 (65%) lies in PRC. The Himachal Pradesh part of the Satluj basin, which is the focus for the present study covers an area of about 22,305km2 including the whole catchment of the Spiti basin (the largest tributary of the Satluj). The whole Satluj catchment is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 - Whole Satluj Catchment 5. The Satluj flow is complex and is derived from contribution from rain, snow and glaciers; the respective contribution of each component varies with the specific time of the year. The Satluj catchment can be divided into three zones: (i) upper zone above 2000m, which receives winter precipitation due from the western disturbances during the winter months; about 60% of this is as snowfall with up to 1m water equivalent. The monsoon rainfall drops off sharply above Reckong Peo; (ii) transition zone between 1200m to 2000m receives considerable amounts of summer rainfall (about 1m/yr) together with large amounts of snow and glacier melt; (iii) the lower zone below 1200m about 80% of the annual precipitation occurs during May to October. In this part there is no contribution from snow or glacier melt. The elevations of the basin are shown in Figure 3
Figure 3 Satluj Digital Elevation Model
3
6. The river flow at Khab5 and Bhakra are shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5. It is apparent that in the last decade, annual inflows have been below average, corresponding with below average precipitation in this period. From a statistical analysis of the annual inflow series for Bhakra and it was found that there is no significant evidence of persistence or trend in the data6.
Figure 4 River Flows at Khab Figure 5 Bhakra Inflow Deviations from the Mean Flow Deviations from the Mean of Annual Inflows to Bhakara Reservoir 50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -10.0 Deviation from mean (%) mean from Deviation
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0 -50.0
7. The levels of sediment in the lower-elevated rainfall zone are highly variable and correlate closely with rainfall events, whereas sediment discharge in the higher-elevated snowfall zone is governed by melt events and less variable. Studies show that extensive sediment control treatment will be necessary to improve the safety and efficiency of the many hydroelectric projects that are being planned for the Satluj and its tributaries. About 80 percent of the annual flow occurs between May and September, mainly from snowmelt. Sediment yield increased exponentially with increased discharge, with especially high concentrations from June through August. The main sediment sources are gully erosion, stream-bank erosion, landslides, road construction and glacier erosion. The sediment from the upper catchment accounts for half the annual accumulation in the Bhakra reservoir.
8. There are fourteen main tributaries; the tributary rivers are used for irrigation and water supply and closely linked to the well being of the communities. The tributary rivers and the associated spring systems, wells and water points are very sensitive to impacts of the hydropower projects as well as climate change impacts.
9. Snow and Glaciers: stream flows in the Satluj are heavily influenced by snow and glacier melt. There is a lack of data and information on snow and glaciers in the Satluj mainly due to lack of comprehensive studies and supporting field surveys. As a result there is poor understanding of the flow being generated from glaciers. About 60% of the flow into Bhakra reservoir is derived from snow and glacier melt. At the confluence of the Spiti and Khab rivers nearly all of the flow is from snow and glaciers. The Satluj river basin consists of around 940 glaciers7 with a cumulative area of about 1200km2. The ice reserves have never been surveyed, estimates are however derived from remote sensing to measure the area and applying empirical formula to estimate the volumes. Research8 estimates appears to indicate the ice volume may be around 60-95km3. The Satluj glaciers have a large variation in their size, orientation and elevation all of which affect their characteristics
10. Glaciers are very sensitive to the climatic conditions. Retreat of glaciers and its impact on water resources is one of the major issues being debated for more than two decades. Snow cover in the Satluj is quite variable from about 20% to 65% of the catchment. The glaciers as mapped by the Institute of Geological Survey of India (GSI) are shown in Figure 6.
5 Flash-Flood Warning for the Upper Sutlej River Basin, Northern India R. Kumar1, J.D. Bales2, R. Jubach3, P.D. Gyamba4, and M.D. Kane5 and A.C. Scott 6 ADB TA 7417-IND: Support for National Action Plan on Climate Change 7 Geological Survey of India and Palampur University 8 Geological Survey of India, ICIMOD and others, 2004. 4
Figure 6 Glaciers in the Satluj A. Trends for Precipitation, Temperature, Snow and Glaciers
11. Temperature: Various research initiatives have been examined9, findings show significant rise in air temperature in the north-west Himalayan (NWH) region by about 1.6°C in the last century, with winters warming at a faster rate. There also seems to be a significantly increasing trend of rise in both the maximum as well as minimum temperatures, with the maximum increasing much more rapidly. Real warming appears to have started from late 1960s and highest rate of increase was experienced in the last two decades.
12. Rainfall10: Analysis from rain gauge stations maintained by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) found decreasing levels of monsoon rainfall during the last century as a sudden shift, rather than gradual trend. The most probable year of change in annual as well as monsoon rainfall is estimated is 1964. The period 1902–1964 showed mostly an increasing trend, which reversed during 1965–1980.
13. Snow in the Satluj is derived from the winter Western Disturbances. An assessment of the western disturbance and snow falls show no real trend.
14. Glaciers: Recently the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF) reviewed the retreat of glaciers in India11, analysis of the data shows that over the last 100 years that the Himalayan glaciers have been, by and large shrinking and retreating continuously. Recent research shows that glacier melt is accelerated by deposits of dark soot particles on the snow and ice, which decreases the reflection and hence increases the amount of incoming solar radiation that is being absorbed. The soot loading of the atmosphere (“brown haze”) also impacts the temperature profile of the atmosphere and the precipitation patterns in the region. Recent findings are also showing that the quantity of debris can affect the rate of ice loss.
Research on glaciers in Lahaul and Spiti show that between 1999 and 2004 glacier have shown thinning of 8-10m per year below 4400m elevation and slight thinning of about 2m above 4400m. The overall volume loss over five years is estimated at 3.9km3 water equivalent. These losses are at least twice higher than previous estimates12 There are two main inventories of the glaciers; from the two studies the number of glacier and areas are quite consistent but with some significant difference in the ice volume. Ice volumes are empirical estimates without any surveyed information. The summary of the glacier inventories are shown in Table 1 below.
Table 1 Comparison of Glacier Estimates
Source Number Area Estimated ice Estimated Estimated ice of (km2) volume area for volume for the glaciers Km3 for Indian Spiti river Spiti river Satluj (km2) (km3) Geological Survey of India 926 1251 61 620 29.5
9 Bhutiyani, M.R., Kale, V.S. and Pawar, N.J. (2007). Long-term trends in annual air temperatures across the North-Western Himalaya during the twentieth century. Climatic Change, 85 (1-2), pp. 159-177. 10 Basistha, A., Arya, D.S. and Goel, N.K. (2009). Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the IndianHimalayas. International Journal of Climatology, 29 (4), 555–572 11 Raina, 2009 12 Dyurgerov & Meier, 2005 5
Palampur University 945 1217 94 524 35.0 Average 935 1234 77 572 32
III. PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
15. The projected impacts of climate change in the Satluj river as presented in this report have been coordinated and supplemented with data from the ongoing project being implemented by ADB and MOWR 'Support to the National Water Mission of the National Action Plan for Climate Change'13. Understanding the effects of future climate under the influence of global warming requires the use of climate simulation models, run with a range of possible emission scenarios and incorporating the uncertainty that exists in climate model forecasts.
16. Climate models are mathematical models used to simulate the behaviour of the climate system. They incorporate information regarding climate processes, current climate variability and the response of the climate to the human-induced drivers. These models range from simple one dimensional models to complex three dimensional coupled models.
17. The PRECIS is related to an analysis of the summer monsoon and not snow. Winter snow on the upper region is related to western disturbances and not with the monsoon. The study has found that precipitation produced by PRECIS in the upper Satluj was not satisfactory and in some parts PRECIS annual precipitation was two and three times higher than observed, and even with bias adjustment was found to be largely unsatisfactory. It is felt that improved model resolution might help, but the GCM boundary conditions and the lack of accuracy on how they represent processes such as the Westerlies are key issues.
18. Baseline: The climate models project changes with reference to a baseline set in the 1970s baseline. With reference to 2011 some of the projected changes have actually occurred to some degree.
19. Temperatures: The projected maximum and minimum temperature increases for the Satluj basin are shown in Figure 7, which show the change in temperature distribution across the Satluj basin, for maximum and minimum temperature respectively. The whole basin is projected to warm significantly, with most pronounced increases in the mid to high parts of the Satluj in Himachal Pradesh with increases of 20C with reference to the 1970s baseline likely by mid century.
13 ADB TA-7417 (IND): Support for the National Action Plan on Climate Change 6
Figure 7 Predicted Change in Temperature
20. Precipitation: The monsoon rainfall is projected to increase. The indications from providing regional climates for impacts studies (PRECIS) A1B scenario are that by mid century, monsoon precipitation could increase by 15%-20%. The PRECIS is not accurate in the mountain area and poor reliability of the prediction is likely in Kinnaur and Spiti. The monsoon normally does not move much past Reckong Peo but with the strengthened monsoon this incursion of the monsoon into the arid area of Spiti and PRC may likely increase with potentially very serious consequences on snow and glacier melt rates, land stability and sediment levels. 7
Figure 8 Percent Change in Average Precipitation to Mid Century
21. Precipitation Intensity: very heavy rainfall events can lead to increased erosion and flooding. Both at 100mm/day and 150mm/day level, small increases in the number of days of heavy rain are projected to occur in the central region of the basin by mid century. An impact of increased precipitation could be increased flood frequency and magnitude, increased land instability and silt levels in the main Satluj river and tributaries.
A. Snow and Glaciers
22. Snow is only during the winter months, November to March and comes from the Westerly Disturbances which originate in the Mediterranean. The summer monsoon contributes insignificantly to snow, so changes in the monsoon precipitation will not affect the amount of snow. Increased evaporation will however reduce the volume of snow with increased temperatures resulting in earlier snow melt. Studies of the effect of warmer climates14 on the rate of depletion of snow suggest accelerated effects. For a 2°C temperature increase scenario, the annual evaporation for the rain-fed basins increased by about 12%, whereas for the snow-fed basins it increased by about 24%. This high increase of the evaporation losses would reduce the runoff from snow. There is only limited research on the possible changes to the Westerly Disturbances, but based on the information available there is no significant change predicted in the levels of winter snow fall15.
23. Glacial Loss estimates are supported by quite limited information. From various research studies16 it is estimated that there are about 930 glaciers with a total surface area of 1200km2 with an indicative ice volume of between about 60-90km3 (about 45-70Km3 water equivalent) in the Himachal part of the Satluj catchment. The glaciers located in Kinnaur and Spiti each having about the same glacier area and volume; there is no information on the glaciers in the PRC but it is considered to be relatively small. There is no survey data on the volume of glaciers and volumes are estimated based on simple empirical formula applied to the surface area. Analysis of various data sources for the Spiti valley show that there is an annual glacier loss of about 2.5%. Studies17 have shown that melt rates
14 Effect of Warmer Climate on the Depletion of the snow Covered Area in the Satluj Basin Singh and Bengtsson (2003) 15 INCCA Climate Change in India November 2010 16 CSK Himachal Pradesh Agriculture University Centre for Geo-informatics Palampur and the Geological Survey of India 2009 17 Singh and Bengtsson ibid 8
will increase with increased temperature; a 20C increase in temperature could increase melt by about 28% and up to 45% if temperatures increased by 3C. At present temperatures, the annual loss of 2.5% represents an indicative glacier loss of about 50% over 30 years. This could increase to about 60% loss with a 30C temperature increase. In the initial stages the increased melt will result in increased stream flows which could be up to 33%, however, gradually reducing glaciers will reach a critical point when the melt will start to decline due to the reduced ice volume. There is no information as to when the critical point may occur.
24. Glacier and Snow: Estimates are that glacier melt may account for about 70% of the combined snow and glacial melt. It is found that increased temperatures will bring earlier snow melt and also reduce the annual snowmelt due to evaporation; a 2°C increase in temperature could reduce the annual snowmelt by about 18%. Conversely it was found for the same temperature the flow increased by 33% for glacier-fed basins18. Impacts of warmer climates on the melt from the snowfed and glacier-fed basins were found to be opposite to each other. The study suggests that out of three types of basins, snow-fed basins are more sensitive in terms of reduction in water availability largely due to the increase in evaporation. The decrease in melt from seasonal snow may be counterbalanced by increase in melt from glaciers. However, on a long-term basis, when the areal extent of glaciers will decrease due to higher melt rate, the overall water availability from the basins will be reduced. Analysis of inflows to Bhakra show presently no significant statistical trend of increasing or decreasing flow which tends to confirm that there is some balancing of reduced snow melt and increased glacier melts from the lower and higher parts of the catchment.
25. Based on a simple assessment of the various research an indicative summary of the broad implications of hydrological changes on the various water sources is summarised in Table 2
Table 2 Indicative Snow and Glacier Changes Himachal Pradesh Satluj
Short term Decadal Medium 10 to 30 years Long beyond 30 years Lower Level Reduced snowmelt due to Snow and glacier Snow and glacier Catchments evaporation. contributions will disappear in contributions will severely Earlier depletion of snow some catchments. reduce or disappear in most Lower level glaciers in Increased summer monsoon catchments. decline. rain. Summer monsoon rain to increase by upto 15%. Higher Level Reduced snowmelt due to Increasingly reduced and Severely reduced and earlier Catchments evaporation. Earlier earlier snowmelt. snow melts. depletion of snow. Increased glacier melt from Melts will be in serious decline Increased glacier melt from medium and high glaciers - from many medium altitude medium and high glaciers melt rate could increase. glaciers. potentially by up to 45%. Higher altitude more robust Some medium altitude glaciers likely to provide glaciers in already in decline. continued melt for a significant time period. Combined basin No significant trend is Loss of melt from snow and Overall gradual decline in scale impact on presently observed and this glaciers at lower levels will glaciers and snow melts will main stream will likely continue for the be compensated from reduce the inflows to Bhakra flows next decade. increased melt from higher reservoir. catchments. There is insufficient data to confirm Increased rain in the lower the trend at this stage. catchments.
Increased precipitation in lower catchment likely to contribute to increased runoff. .
18 Hydrological Change of a large Himalayan Basin to Climate Change Singh and Bengtsson (2004) 9
IV. WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND ISSUES
A. Hydropower
26. Major hydropower development has been implemented in the basin; to date 63% of the estimated potential is in operation or under construction. The Karchham Dam is shown in Figure 9. The projects not yet developed lie in the high altitude zone and are almost entirely dependent on snow/glacier melt; with potentially very complex hydrological impacts from climate change as well as environment and social issues. The main remaining projects are the Khab storage reservoir as well as run of the river projects in the Spiti river. Planning of such high altitude hydro electric projects (HEPs) must be supported by a high level of understanding of the snow and glacier issues and potential impacts from climate change. The viabilities of some of the HEP schemes may be affected by these changes.
Figure 9 Karchham Dam
27. Impacts from the HEPs have been quite significant, however lessons have been learnt and the newer schemes have moved towards more effectively tackling some of the social and environmental issues. Despite these efforts, the level of disquiet and protest against power projects is becoming a significant issue. The remaining schemes need very special planning with development of new and participative approaches. There are now some arguments19 against the development of high altitude hydro schemes and the need to keep parts of the catchment undeveloped. Tributary rivers which cater to a large population for their water and irrigation needs are especially sensitive.
28. Environmental mitigation measures including water supply, irrigation and catchment area treatment (CAT) are being funded by the hydro producers, with funds passed to government for implementation. It is reported however significant amounts of the mitigation work have never been implemented; government lacks the resources to effectively implement the scale of mitigation necessary. There is potential and some interest for the HEP's to become more directly involved in implementing the CAT and other mitigation works.
29. Muck dumping20 is a major issue with much of the muck ending in the river. There is inadequate design to ensure sustainability of many of the retention structures. Many structures are in the main or tributary rivers and liable to damage by flood flows. There is scope to better plan and monitor muck dumping including the existing, ongoing and future schemes.
30. Loss of spring flows from tunnels/blasting is quite widely reported and a major area of concern by the communities. The extent of loss is difficult to ascertain and to a large part depends on the local geology. Many of the tunnels require extensive de-watering during the construction period which provides some evidence of the problem. Final sealing of tunnels on completion of the schemes may over time may remediate the situation. The issue is made more complex due to the parallel reduction in spring flows from climate warming and reduced glacier and snow melt. In the lower level catchments there is now evidence that this is occurring. Without proper mapping and monitoring it is difficult to define and properly address the causes of spring loss.
19 These include the Shukla Committee report to the High Court of Himachal Pradesh 2010. 20 Muck dumping is the disposal of material excavated from the tunnels of the hydropower projects. 10
31. De-silting and flushing of silt are major issues and affect the long term sustainablities of the projects. There are issues relating to responsibilities of decommissioning hydro projects if silt loads become too high or once reservoir storages become full, or when reduced melt flows affect the viabilities.
32. In the Satluj basin, excluding small hydropower, there is at present 17% of the potential hydropower production operational with 47% under construction, with the rest is under investigation or planned. Although addressing of the potential issues for the planned schemes is a priority there is also a need to review and address some issues for completed and schemes under construction.
33. Issues of Climate Change: Climate change will likely have significant impacts on the hydropower projects including:
(i) Snow and glacier loss will gradually affect flows. In the initial period reduced snow melt due to evaporation will be largely compensated by glacier melt but in the longer term a gradual decline in the combined melt flows will occur. The time scale very much depends on the elevation; in the lower level catchments some decline is already occurring and lower level catchments will most affected in the short to medium term. Surveys and research is very limited, but indications are that an indicative 50%-60% glacier loss might occur over the next 30 years. (ii) Increased monsoon rainfall of about 15% over the next 30 years will benefit hydro schemes with catchments or parts of the catchment in the monsoon affected part. Runoff will however be affected by increased evaporation and the number of extreme rainfall events is expected to rise. (iii) Sediment: The increased melt rates, increased monsoon and likely increased number of intense rain events all point to increased silt levels. The strengthened monsoon is also likely to increase the chance of incursion of monsoon rains into the desert areas of Spiti and PRC resulting in major increases in sediment load and destabilisation including avalanche blockages as well as Glacier Lake Floods.
34. High quality analysis and effective adaptation to these impacts is essential. New projects must be supported by fully researched climate assessments.
B. Irrigation and Water Supplies
35. Loss of spring flows is occurring due to climate change; in some locations some parallel loss is reported from the effects of tunnelling. Loss of spring flows from climate change is and will continue to affect traditional water sources for irrigation and water supply. The issues are complex and all efforts are needed for the conservation of sources especially secure high elevation water sources for long term community needs. Great care is required to ensure potentially valuable and sustainable water sources are not diverted for hydropower or irrigation. The hydrological change parameters are very similar to that of hydropower described above.
36. The more robust tributary rivers and springs must be preserved to provide long term sustainable water sources for irrigation and water supply as minor sources gradually dry due to reduced snow glacier melt. It is important that these key robust high altitude water sources are maintained and not for developed for other uses. In the Satluj valley the elevation of a water source is extremely valuable in terms of being able to supply water by gravity; the costs of pumping water indicates this value. Although the hydro projects are not directly consuming water in the tributaries they convert high altitude and high value water to a lower level and lower value water.
37. The very high sediment in the main Satluj River does not make this a feasible alternative water source. The Kol Dam, presently under construction includes a settling reservoir which will provide an important water source with reduced silt. Some plans to use the reservoir water for water supply are under consideration. The Khab reservoir, if implemented might also be a potential water source for irrigation and water supplies.
38. Many irrigation schemes are operating at low outputs with limited take up by the farmers. The high costs of irrigation especially lift schemes are only sustainable if major efforts are made to improve the farmer participation and adoption of higher value cropping systems. It is recommended that priority 11
is made to operationalise existing schemes rather than initiating new schemes. Lack of appropriate water sources at higher elevations, together with drying or disruption of traditional water sources is forcing a move towards lift schemes (both water supply and irrigation). Sustainability and levels of service delivery of these often very high head lift schemes is an issue. Wherever possible gravity schemes from springs and minor tributaries should be preserved by applying measures to protect and conserve spring sources (planting in the catchments, increasing storage and improved water applications drip, rainwater harvesting and application of precision agriculture (poly-houses), rather than high head and high investment pump schemes with major O&M problems. There is interest in water harvesting, the very steep topography limits however limits the scope. Investigation is required into development of low cost storage systems.
39. The sourcing alternative and sustainable water sources is not easy. Future strategy should be to protect sustainable water sources. It was observed that in general the villagers are reluctant to take on any responsibility of maintenance and management of irrigation or water supply schemes. In fact, the expectation of the communities is for government to take on even greater responsibilities for operation and management.
C. Forests and Catchments
40. The hill slopes especially in the upper areas of the Satluj are very unstable. Land slips and mud slides from cloudbursts and ingress of rain into areas with normally no rainfall are major issues. Climate change will increase the risks. Potentials for disaster, social and economic damage are all prevalent and are likely to become higher risk with climate change. More extreme rainfall events and potentially increased rainfall occurrences in desert zones in the upper Satluj are of concern and pose real risk to the communities. The tributaries and nallah21 are especially vulnerable to flash flooding which can involve very intense and dangerous flows of water, mud and stone.
41. Many ongoing soil and water conservation works are not sustainable - harsh low rainfall conditions limit options for environmental protection. Gabions and rock check dams typically have very short life spans thus new ideas and sustainable options need to be developed. There are potentials for a mix of commercial and traditional forest along with horticulture integration for greater ownership of the communities. Engineering solutions are in large part expensive and afforestation alone is not possible in many areas. The new forestry management notification however opens the way for new approaches to catchment management including a move to multifunctional management including modalities to pay for ecosystem services.
42. The scale and complexity of issues relating to the catchments requires a mix of specialist skills and new technologies including forestry, engineering and soil water conservation.
D. Agriculture
43. Agriculture is complex; although some farmers are making good returns from apples and vegetables, in other areas labour shortages and increased costs and access to off-farm employment opportunities are reducing the interest to pursue agriculture. Agriculture is becoming less favoured especially by the younger generation; there are issues of labour shortages as migrant labour becomes more expensive and less available. There are complaints from farmers of loss of plant yield due to dust from the construction works.
44. The population in the basin despite a gradual diversification away from agriculture remain very much an agricultural community with a strong reliance on agriculture. Climate change will likely result in increased risk to agriculture and the Government needs to support appropriate methods for sustainability. The Government is promoting the application of precision agriculture to promote production through highly targeted inputs-seed, water, fertiliser etc. Agriculture is very dependent on irrigation and there is a need to develop appropriate highly efficient irrigation systems supported by precision agriculture. The use of polyhouses is becoming more widespread as shown in . The Department of Forests is now promoting the development of forests on private and community land; farmers would earn income through carbon sequestration funding.
21 Local name for small river or stream. 12
Figure 10 Polyhouse to Support Precision Agriculture
45. Projected temperature increases are higher for the Satluj valley than other parts and this will have a significant effect on agricultural production. The apple crops are identified as being especially sensitive, with apple production gradually moving to higher altitudes. There is a need to understand and assess the impacts of increased temperature and develop robust and sustainable cropping systems that can incorporate the increased temperatures. More diversification of crops will reduce the impacts should crop failure occur; presently the agricultural economy is very dependent on apple production. Support for sustainable agriculture and parallel opportunities for off farm employment income is an important component of the adaptation requirements.
46. The DOA have developed a number of models to support precision farming including sprinkler, drip irrigation, polyhouses (polythene green house), polytanks (polythene lined earth tanks), concrete tanks etc. More research is required to design and source the most appropriates systems; user acceptability is a key issue. There is also scope for new ideas and technologies that could be applied to widen the scope of options. Many of these new approaches rely on subsidies which are in most cases a necessary way to meet the upfront costs of many of the new technologies; the approach and modalities of subsidies need however to be kept under constant review.
47. It is estimated that approximately 20%-25% of the horticulture and vegetable produce goes to waste due to improper post harvest operations which reduces the growers share. In the present marketing arrangements, growers only receive about 25% of retail value. Efforts are now ongoing to evolve a marketing systems where growers and consumers both benefit. The efforts are also on “Value Addition” activities where the fruits and vegetables are processed; those fetch higher remunerative prices of the produce. Various state and central government organisations as well as private sector support fruit and vegetable marketing and processing cooperatives and companies. Support includes creating infrastructure for marketing, processing and storage, including cold storage of agricultural produce.
48. There is a good scope for public-private sector participation to support the introduction of precision farming and improved marketing systems. Agriculture companies can support agricultural intensification by provision of equipment (drip, sprinkler, polyhouses, etc), credit, agricultural inputs, know how, management and marketing. Similarly companies may be contracted in to provide a complete support package. The use of performance based contracts would be appropriate with payments made on results (yields, production levels, areas planted, etc).
E. Flood
49. Due to the diverse topography, flooding is largely isolated and tends to be flash type flooding of high intensity and short duration. Major floods have affected the entire Satluj basin in 1997, 2000, 2005 and 2010.The floods are extremely powerful and frequently carry significant volumes of mud, stone and rock have historically led to damage the river banks and the catchments. Major cloudbursts are frequent and unprecedented cloudburst intensities and can cause extensive damage. Indirect flood issues are caused by blockages of the river due to land slip, this has occurred several times over the last decade. Increased glacier melts, rainfall and higher rainfall intensities projected under climate change all indicate an increase of flood risk. The incursion of the monsoon rain into the desert regions is a rare phenomenon with major risk of land slips and mud flows. The strengthened monsoon under climate change will increase this risk. Sediment concentrations in the river can reach 43,000mg/l.. 13
50. Communities located along the tributary rivers are reported as being especially vulnerable. In the parts of the rivers especially the tributaries there is encroachment by housing, creating a high risk of damage to property and life from floods. Some of the muck dumping and hydropower work areas encroach on the tributary and main river with inherent risk to washout and erosion-many of the retention structures are under designed and show signs of collapse. Flash flooding can also cause landslips. The disastrous floods in August 2010, in Leh, capital of Ladakh where about 200 people died and thousands rendered homeless is an example of the risks of heavy rainfall in the desert areas. The low or no rainfall zone of Kinnaur and Spiti are especially vulnerable to this type of incidence. A flood routing study along the main Satluj identified major habitations including Rampur, Nogli and Duttnagare to vulnerable to flooding. Impacts from flash floods including mud and debris is high on the tributary rivers and some settlements are extremely vulnerable as seen in Lippa village in Kinnaur.
51. Flood warning systems at Khab and Powari have been set up to safeguard the project components as well as the needs of local officials to meet emergency response but also to protect the Nathpa-Jhakri project infrastructure. Flood seriously affects the hydropower projects; the Nathpa- Jhakri project with capacity of 1,500MW has to shut down when concentration exceeds 4,000mg/l.
52. The Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBBM) is presently working on a flood warning system for the Bhakra dam. The system will be applied to improve the efficiency of the reservoir operation to meet flood flows. It is understood that this system designed for the Bhakra dam will also be applied to meet the needs of communities and hydro producers along the river. Monitoring and assessment of flows and sediment are the main parameters. There is presently no warning system linked into the catchment in PRC; an important and critical area that is required to complement the monitoring proposed for the Indian part of the river.
53. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) will likely become a more serious issue. ICIMOD in Kathmandu working with the Agricultural University of Palampur have identified three potentially dangerous glaciers with risk of GLOF in the Satluj basin.
54. Disaster Management; the state has established a Disaster Management Authority at the State level and district levels. For water related disasters a multi-disciplinary approach is needed and there are requirements to address the likely additional measures to provide additional protection under climate change.
55. Roads are seriously affected by rainfall and soil and rock debris. There is a need to integrate the requirements of the roads into catchment management. Roads also contribute to slope instability.
V. ENVIRONMENT
56. To date there have been no studies commissioned to assess whether the fragile topography and environment of the upper Satluj can sustain so many dams and projects. There are concerns that the receding snow line and glaciers may upset the viability of projects in the coming years. Over and above the impacts of the hydro projects there are also impacts from other development initiatives including transmission lines, industry, irrigation, roads, real estate, quarrying. etc.
57. The high altitude areas are extremely fragile. Discussions with stakeholders indicate that there is interest to set some limits on the development of the HEPs in the Satluj basin, with some parts of it to be left undeveloped. The 2010 Shukla committee report recommends that high altitude hydropower should not be taken up, and under the Environmental Protection Act, these areas should be declared as “eco-fragile”. The Spiti river, the major tributary of the Satluj is an area of outstanding naturally beauty as shown in Figure 11. It is presently totally undeveloped and less suitable for hydropower due to geological instabilities, hydrological uncertainties, high silt loads, inaccessibility, high development costs, and some uncertainty over long term snow and glacier melt flows. The rapid rate of siltation of storages would limit the operational life of any hydropower project which would leave a long term legacy of non operational infrastructure. It is recommended that consideration should be given to maintain the Spiti valley as a conservation area. 14
58. The lower Satluj is being rapidly developed for industry and real estate purposes. Though these bring good economic benefits to the Figure 11 Spiti Valley State, they require to be appropriately managed to ensure sustainablities and, maximum benefit for local communities and ensuring the balance between environment and development is made. Sustainable extraction of groundwater is an important issue here. Departmental inter-linkages to be established to coordinate activities, also crucial..
59. The Department of Environment, Science and Technology (DEST) is presently proposing the establishment of an information and climate change centre. It is proposed that the climate change centre will coordinate research and development on aspects of climate change in the State. The State Action Plan for Climate Change is currently in process.
A. Summary of Hydropower Impacts
60. The environment of the Satluj valley is extremely fragile and impacts on the environment of the various infrastructure projects has been significant. The environmental impacts are described in the various project EIA studies. Some of the impacts are limited to the construction phase; dust, spoil, construction traffic and will cease once construction is complete, however, with construction probably ongoing and planned over 20 plus years, construction impacts cannot really be classed as temporary. A cumulative impact assessment22 prepared in 2006 for the Satluj provides a summary of the impacts. A preliminary summary of the impacts is given in Table 3 below
Table 3 Summary of Main Hydropower Impacts Nr Environment Description Notes Impacts 1 Impacts on Surface and Groundwater Systems 1.1 River Diversion At full development much of the Satluj and Most potable water and irrigation water is many tributaries will be largely diverted out of from springs and minor tributary streams. the river channel into the Hydroelectric E Natural fish stocks in the rivers are quite tunnels. Minimum environmental flows are low-fish migration is already blocked at defined but not fully followed. Nathpa. 1.2 Storage Presently all the schemes have only minimal Proposed storage reservoir at Khab will be storage to meet peaking demands. the largest reservoir except for Bhakra. Additional storage is proposed to reduce the silt loading. Low population densities and steep valleys Storage results in inundation and possible limit the impacts of storage. instabilities. 1.3 Impacts on Tunnelling is causing impacts on springs and Hydro producers are funding some Springs and groundwater. compensation drinking water and irrigation Groundwater Effects and mitigation measures complicated. through DIPH. Once tunnels sealed impacts should be reduced. Hydrological changes from changing snow and Some new schemes are lift with issues of glacier melt are complicating the issue. management and operational funding.
2 Ecological Impacts 2.1 Change and l oss The forest areas are not so large but impacts Most schemes are run of the river with low of forest are very visible. Delays and poor survival rates forest requirements. The proposed storage
22 Cumulative Impact Assessment of the Satluj DHI 2006 15
of replanting are issues. project at Khab will require some forest land-land is barren and without tree cover. 2.2 Change and l oss Some impacts due to construction and migrant Works would mainly be in the lower valley of bio-diversity labour. not frequented by wild animals.
2.3 Indirect Impact on Rural population use the forest for house Fauna construction and fuel wood etc. 2.4 Aquatic Flora and Damming of the river and diversion affects fish Low productivity of the cold water Satluj Fauna and migration. river. Impacts on Low level environmental flows affect fisheries. High velocities and sediment levels result Fisheries Migrant labour may fish the river. fish refuges in the tributary rivers and side Dredging of the river for fine aggregates may streams. affect spawning areas. Some side streams have warm ground waters which promote spawning, 3 Impacts of Soil Erosion and Muck Disposal 3.1 Soil erosion from Roads both national, state and village roads as Stabilization of erosion is difficult and often roads well as the hydropower roads are causing land ineffective. Improved planning design and slips. funding required to provide permanent solutions. 3.2 Increased river River regulation modifies the sediment erosion regimes and c an alter the natural river processes.. Encroachment of HEP works into the river can cause bank erosion and instability 3.3 Impacts due t o Some materials can be sourced from quarrying tunnelling spoil but some additional quarrying is required. Fine aggregates are sourced from the river bed. 3.4 Impacts of Muck The various HEP project EIA's identify suitable The likelihood of the muck entering the Disposal dumping locations. Muck dumping including Satluj river remains high. the construction of retaining walls and plantation. Some muck disposal is reducing the It is estimated that potential social and sectional area of rivers. economic use of muck are not fully explored. 3.5 Impacts of High levels of dust are reported to be affecting Various studies have been carried out. blasting on apple yields. The reported drop in production could be agricultural and from a num ber of factors including bee horticultural yield populations. No definitive conclusion.
61. Diversion of rivers and streams also renders the river dry or nearly, from the point of diversion, for some distance, at least for a few months in a year. The smaller streams and the natural water sources dependent on the diverted stream faces the danger of drying up. Once these streams get disturbed, it affects the water availability of the local people. The State Pollution Control Board passed an order in 2005 that a minimum average of 15 percent inflow of water in the dam reservoir was to be released by the hydro projects even during the lean season. There are discussions on whether this is sufficient for safeguarding the ecology or satisfying the needs of the downstream communities. It is not well monitored and the regulation is poorly implemented.
62. Storage: Only two of the hydro projects presently have storage; the 225m Bhakra dam 9600MCM and the Kol Dam 575MCM (presently under construction).) The Kol Dam is primarily as dead storage to retain silt. The proposed 275m Khab dam will include 95MCM storage designed to arrest the 12MCM of silt brought down annually by the upper Satluj and Spiti rivers; the estimated life of the dam would be 28 years. It has been calculated that by sediment retention, the Khab Dam would increase the life of the Bhakra reservoir by nine years and that of Kol Dam reservoir by 14 years. Two more dams are being considered upstream on the Spiti River at Rangrik and Poh to enhance the life of the Khab reservoir through silt retention.
63. The very steep sided valleys limit the impact of submergence. Hydro power storage projects in the Satluj are primarily to reduce silt but would have some benefit in smoothing the flood peaks. Storage could allow for some increase in the minimum flows of benefit to the river ecology. Reduced sediment levels would improve photosynthesis and improve the habitat zooplanktons and fish.
64. Groundwater and Springs: At the planned full development along the cascade of dams with connecting diversion tunnels will result in the whole Satluj river corridor being diverted into a series of 16
diversion tunnels. Together with impacts on groundwater and springs this is now one of the prime concerns of the communities and is an issue being taken up by environmental activists.
65. The impacts of tunnels on the hydrogeology are complex. Unconnected and ongoing changes in the hydrology of the catchments due to rainfall changes, snowfall patterns and glacier retreat are also affecting the groundwater and springs. A new approach called the Drawdown Hazard Index23 allows a methodology to help verify Figure 12 Head Race Tunnel Rampur HEP and predict the hydro-geological impacts of tunnelling. There is an urgent key need to incorporate 'Tunnelling Impact Management' as a part of the environmental management plan for HEPs. The plan should include requirements for monitoring springs, monitoring tunnel water ingress, conducting drawdown hazard analyses, participatory discussions with stakeholder and clear cut agreements of what and how criteria will be used for compensation or provision of alternative supplies. The issue is complex and appropriate methodologies require to be carefully developed. Issues include the annual and seasonal variations in spring flows, parallel climate change impacts, the likely reductions in impacts once the tunnels are lined and the limitations of assessment techniques such as the Drawdown Hazard Index. To properly address the problem requires an extremely professional approach involving significant level of study and management. The tunnelling impact management should be applied to completed, ongoing and planned schemes. The Rampur head race tunnel is shown in Figure 12.
66. Ecological Impacts: There are three main impacts:
(i) Construction activities along the river stretch of the water increases sediment load posing threats to aquatic life. . High sediment loads also modifies the river bed transforming heterogeneous stony substrate into homogenous sandy substrates leading to extinction of many species. Low oxygen and high turbidity adversely affects the primary productivity of aquatic life;
(ii) Obstruction offish movement by dams without provision of a fish pass usually decimate migratory fish stocks. This trend adversely affect people‟s livelihood who are solely or partially dependent on fish for food/livelihood; and
(iii) Diversion of water and reduction of flows impacts the aquatic habitat and fish productivity.
67. Soil erosion due to the benching of all types of roads is widespread. Damage is also caused to the soil stability due to installation of transmission lines. In these cases damage comes from the pylon base as well as the temporary access roads. Temporary roads rarely receive any attention protection or planting and frequently do not recover and remain focal areas of erosion..
23 Drawdown Hazard of Springs and Wells in Tunnelling; predictive model and verification Torri, Dematteis and Delle Paine 2007 17
68. Disposal of Muck generated from the tunnels is a major problem due to the serious environmental consequences and lack of suitable land. Issues and impacts of muck dumping remain even on demarcated sites and include: (i) the muck retention structures are frequently inadequately designed or constructed; (ii) maintenance of the retention structures is rarely implemented; (iii) many structures are sited in the floodway of the main or tributary rivers and are liable to damage by flood flows. There are parallel issues of non adherence including uncontrolled disposal into the rivers. Replanting is frequently done in haste, often with inadequate top soil or in the dry season and in many cases unsuccessful.
69. It is the responsibility of the State Pollution Control Board (in the non forest areas) and the Forest department (in the forest area) to monitor the proper disposal of muck. Improved coordination between the departments is important. Some new initiatives demonstrate the potential technical and social initiatives that can be successfully applied; for example the muck management of the Rampur project has recently won an Figure 13 Proposed Cricket Pitch at Kashang HEP environmental award. Similarly the Himachal Pradesh Power Corporation Limited (HPPCL) is presently constructing a cricket pitch as part of the muck dumping at the Integrated Kashang Hydro Electric Project as shown in Figure 13.
70. Recommendations for Muck Disposal: there is a need to review all current muck disposal initiatives in the basin. This includes the new planned schemes but also ongoing as well as completed schemes. Non compliance, shortcomings and lack of long term sustainability of existing muck sites should also be addressed. Muck is made available for community use but slow uptake of muck removal for other uses is partially due to the long procedures required by government departments to take on new financial commitments. It is recommended that HEPs provide free removal, placing and design support to any organization or person that is interested to obtain muck. HEPs could support the costs of necessary retention structures for community projects (schools, hospitals, etc.) Local government could usefully provide support to facilitate and publicize and coordinate this facility and support the land issues.
71. Muck disposal plans are required to be carefully planned, scientifically developed so that the disposal of muck no way creates any hindrance to the natural drainage system. The site selection for muck dumping should be strategically processed in a manner that some kind of facility is created out of this waste.
VI. SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACTS
72. The level of disquiet and protest currently, against power projects is becoming an increasing issue. Both State and Central Government are concerned and pressures are affecting the ability to implement some of the planned projects. The power projects are steadily giving rise to a new category of affected people: 'the indirectly affected people'. These are the people who neither come under the project affected area nor are being compensated for loss of any kind. But in reality are suffering because of general degradation in the environment and society e.g. loss or reduction in water sources, muck dumping in the forest area or in water sources, diversion of water, loss of fisheries, influx of outsiders which is bringing in slow change to the local cultures.
73. The HEPs have clearly brought benefits such as roads, employment and money not only to the remote locations, but also huge revenues to the state exchequer. An air of prosperity now surrounds the project areas. It is questioned that this kind of development and revenue generation is 18
an end in itself. Can a fragile topography sustain so many dams on one river basin? Will the receding snow line and global warming upset the viability of projects in the coming years?
74. There is a major dilemma to balance the development of hydropower with increasing pressures to maintain a sustainable environment and protect the project affected villages and local communities. The HEPs now include a range of support measures for the affected communities including preference to employ labour from the state24. Environmental management plans and support for socio economic measures are now compulsory including packages of support for the affected families and communities. The level of participative planning and involvement of the communities has improved over the past decade, there is good evidence that that the methodologies to select sites has improved and the insistence of State and Central Government has resulted in greater public consultation, better monitoring of environmental and social aspects of projects, improvements in resettlement policy and practices, as well as improved institutional capacity related to project identification, engineering and design.
75. The rate and scale of changes on the very vulnerable and sensitive area cannot however be underestimated. Despite this progress, there remain significant concerns within the local communities and by the local administrations to the social and environmental impacts.
VII. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK
A. Integration of Water Issues
76. The need for better coordination between the water agencies has been frequently raised by state government departments and non government stakeholders; as too is the need for an apex nodal agency to coordinate water resources planning. During wrap-up discussions with State Sector Departments the need improved coordination and improved regulation was widely seen as an important requirement. The Government has already made some important steps in this direction through the establishment of the State Water Management Board.
77. The establishment of a new higher level water resources agency, with a remit to coordinate the line agencies provides an option but is likely not to be able to get effective cooperation and support from line agencies. The newly formed Water Management Board comprises of senior ministers and senior members of the departments and agencies provide a good forum for review and decision making at the highest level. The board however lacks the lower level mechanisms for comprehensive assessment and analysis of issues that can be presented to the board. The board requires to be supported by coordinated and integrated sectors.
78. Principal Objectives for IWRM include the integration of land and water related aspects with implemented to be based on a catchment basis. For a river such as the Satluj, IWRM should be directed to: i) Promote a dynamic, interactive, iterative and multi-sectoral approach to water resources management, including the identification and protection of potential sources of freshwater supply, that integrates technological, socio-economic, environmental and human health considerations; ii) Plan for the sustainable and rational utilisation, protection, conservation and management of water resources based on community needs and priorities within the framework of national economic development policy. Planning must incorporate impacts of climate change;; iii) Design, implement and evaluate projects and programs that are both economically efficient and socially appropriate within clearly defined strategies, based on an approach of full public participation including that of women, youth, indigenous people and local communities in water management policy-making and decision making; iv) Identify and strengthen or develop, as required the appropriate institutional, legal and financial mechanisms to ensure that water policy and its implementation are a catalyst for sustainable social progress and economic growth.
24 A MOU from the Government of Himachal Pradesh requires 70% of employees to be from the state-the overall estimate is that 30000 staff from the state would be given employment from the HEPs. 19
79. Three independent functions: all of these elements can largely be represented in good IWRM if there is no overlap or confusion of roles and functions between the components of the: (i) regulator, standard setter, auditor; (ii) resource manager and (iii) operator and provider of technical service.
80. Regulation: without good regulation it is not possible to maximize the economic and social benefits resulting from water use in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems. Good water resource regulation requires an enabling environment which ensures the rights and assets of all stakeholders (individuals as well as public and private sector organizations and companies, women as well as men, the poor as well as the better off), and protects public assets such as intrinsic environmental values. The sustainability of water projects from the almost complete lack of cost recovery is also an issue.
B. Institutional Proposal
81. Long term and sustainable management of the Satluj Basin requires strong institutional arrangements at the State, Basin, District, Panchayat and Community levels. The various issues and alternative arrangements based on international best practices are described above. For Himachal Pradesh and specifically the Satluj it is proposed to develop a structure based international norms but reflecting the special needs of the river basin. The proposed arrangements are described broadly in Table 4 below.
Table 4 Institutional Proposal
1 Himachal Water The board as established would continue. The board requires to be Management Board strengthened and better supported and advised. The Water Regulator and Water Resources Steering Committees would be responsible to brief and support the board.
2 State Water A new 'State Water Resources Steering Committee'(WRSC) is proposed to Resources Steering support improved coordination of the sector agencies Committee The Steering Committee would comprise of the Principal Secretaries of the Departments of IPH, Forests, Energy, Environment, Panchayats, Agriculture, Horticulture and Rural Development. The committee would be supported by experts in relevant fields who can be called on as required. The steering committee would coordinate integration of the various water sector plans and programmes.
In addition the steering committee would be charged with overseeing fairly significant institutional reforms to meet targets of efficiency, effective service delivery, participative management and financial sustainability through cost recovery for O&M costs. The committee would promote inter-sector coordination and would also advise the proposed water regulator on specific issues.
3. Integrated Agriculture Most farms are mixed food crops, vegetables, orchards, livestock and dairy. and Horticulture Mixed farming opens opportunities for better returns and reduces vulnerabilities to climate and rainfall irregularities and other agricultural risks. Government support mechanisms would be more effective if agricultural support could be better integrated; this could be better achieved by closer integration or merging of the Departments of Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Husbandry; this would allow farmers to access integrated extension support through a „one stop shop’. Irrigation and water supply systems should be designed to meet the integrated farm needs. 20
4 Integrated Water Present planning and hydrology sections within the DIPH could be combined, Resources expanded and strengthened with a new mandate and skills to become an Management Unit “IWRM Unit”, leaving the remainder of the IPH to specialise in its traditional role (IWRM) within IPH as an operator of irrigation and public health. The new 'water resources management unit' would include a role in guiding the planning organisations about issuing of licences and permits. Issuing of licenses and permits would be taken by either the district or state based on the recommendations of the water regulator. The new IWRM management unit would encompass water resource aspects of climate change and would liaise with the Proposed Climate Change Centre being developed by DEST and also provide information on water uses and potential conflicts to the water regulator. The IWRM unit would be staffed by hydrologists and planning staff from DIPH and staff from the other sectors on secondment.
5 River Basin Authority It is proposed that the BBMB takes on a more significant role in holistic river management, to support the efficient and effective management of the upper river within Himachal Pradesh as well as the lower Satluj in the plains.
It is proposed to create a Water Resource Management Unit within BBMB. The remit of the unit would include opening of dialogue and information exchange with PRC. The BBMB could support and coordinate the ongoing and planned hydrology functions of DIPH including the complex analysis of climate change including rainfall, snow, glacier changes. To meet these requirements would require some changes to the functions and operating procedures of the BBMB to separate the resource management functions from the operating functions. The BBMB would work closely with the new Water Management Unit within IPH and provide technical guidance to the Water Resources Steering Committee
6 Independent Water Based on the proposals of the 13th Finance Commission, it is proposed to Regulatory Authority establish an independent Water Regulatory Authority. The functions of the water regulator would include to: (i) fix and regulate the water tariff system and charges for domestic, agriculture, industrial and other purposes; (ii) determine and regulate the distribution of entitlement for various categories of uses as well as within each category of use; (iii) periodically review and monitor the water sector costs and revenues and establish benchmarks for evaluation of water sector performance; (iv) overview the progress of institutional water reforms and set benchmarks and (iv) review the integration of the different water towards IWRM.
The Water Regulatory Authority (WRA) would work closely with the sector agencies on cost recovery as well as aspects of water distribution and entitlement for the different sectors. The regulator would advise government on the issuing of permits to water abstractions and release of waste water.
The water regulator would have appropriate levels of independence, autonomy and financial independence from Government.
7 Empowerment of the It is proposed that the District level should take on an increased and empowered Districts for Planning role in the integrated planning and management of water resources. This would and Management of include to the strengthening of the District Planning Committee to oversee the Water Resources integration of sector programmes as well as ensuring effective stakeholder participation.
VIII. STRATEGIC FRAMWEWORK PLAN FOR THE SATLUJ RIVER
A. Analysis of Problems and Opportunities
82. The development of the Satluj to date has been a major achievement and has brought significant benefit to the region, the state and the country. Local communities have developed and in the main have benefited through the hydropower programme as well as parallel government initiatives including development of agriculture, irrigation, potable water, roads and power. There are however significant shortcomings that require to be addressed. 21
83. The impacts of climate changes are estimated to be significant. By mid century it is estimated that temperature would rise by 20C, monsoon precipitation would increase by 15%, and frequencies of intense rainfall storms would double. Initially reduced snowmelt due to evaporation will be largely compensated by increased glacier melt; in the longer term however, a gradual decline in the combined melt flows will occur. The time scale very much depends on the elevation, in the lower level catchments some decline is already occurring and lower level tributaries will most likely be affected in the short to medium term. An indicative 50%-60% glacier loss over the next 30 years is estimated for the whole basin. The increased melt rates, increased monsoon and increased number of intense rain events all point to increased silt levels. The strengthened summer monsoon is also likely to increase the chance of incursion of monsoon rains into the desert areas of Spiti and PRC, which is likely to result in major increases in sediment load and risk of destabilisation including avalanche blockages as well as Glacier Lake Floods as well as impacting on rates of snow and glacier melt.
B. Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change
84. The application of climate projections into the development of adaptation planning must be attempted with caution and pragmatism, since in the Satluj basin the issues are complex. There remain many gaps and “unknowns” including lack of data and information. It is proposed that planning for the Satluj basin initially focuses on the very pressing and immediate present issues. The incorporation of climate change into planning will depend on: (i) the level of confidence of the projections; some projections are more robust than others; for example projections for temperature rise are more robust than precipitation patterns; (ii) type and estimated design life of any investment - major investments/programmes with long design life require to incorporate climate projections beyond 30 years whereas shorter simpler initiatives may be designed to meet present climate variations. Major long term investments based on low levels of projection confidence would be avoided; (iii) scope for flexibility of the adaptation design; incorporating facilities wherever possible to upgrade adaptation design step-by-step to meet progressive climate changes; (iv) assessment of the incremental costs to meet the projected impacts will be made; where incremental costs are low then it these might be factored into the adaptation design whereas major cost implication maybe left out in the interim. The aspects of safety and implications of delayed action would be assessed.
C. Focal Areas of the Framework Strategy
85. A seven point framework strategy is presented to meet the needs of present issues as well as adaptation towards climate change adaptation. The strategies are presented in Table 5 to Table 11 below.
Table 5 Focal Area 1: Effective Institutions for Integrated Water Resources Management
Overview Establishment of an IWRM approach to the Development and Management of Water Resources in the Satluj Basin and in Himachal Pradesh. Rationale The need for a move to manage water resources under IWRM with clearly defined, robust and coordinated institutions has been endorsed by Government and Stakeholders. In this context institutions include the laws and policies in place to be respected and enforced.
Present institutions are fragmented with major gaps in the integration of efforts. There is no lead institution to coordinate control and support for IWRM. Funding for project needs to be coordinated, additional funding for climate change adaptation are required to be sourced and managed.
There is very limited stakeholder consultation and participation in the planning and management of projects; stakeholders need to be empowered to take on management functions of the smaller water programs.
Districts need to be more active in planning and management of water resources. Strengthening of the District institutions including of the District Planning Committee is required.
The level of cost recovery for water services is extremely low, tariff structures barely cover the cost of recovery. This lack of finance affects the levels of O&M, service delivery and long term sustainability of schemes.
Description o Review present institutional arrangements, detailed assessment of IWRM functions and necessary arrangements for inter sector coordination. Assessment and preparation of 22
proposals for institutional changes and reforms. o Develop clear mandate for IWRM and the establishment of a water resources steering committee made up from the various water sectors. o Support the establishment of an independent water regulator, strengthening of water resources authorities and reforms to address issues of policy, tariffs, stakeholder participation and other regulatory functions. o Strengthening of the District Planning Committees. o Establish benchmarking of sector and project performance. o Open dialogue and information sharing with neighbouring Punjab and PRC. o Review of the present arrangements and areas for central Government support. Review how national and state institutes may better coordinate research and applications of research to policies. o Prepare strategies for better coordination of resources to meet climate change including technical financial and environmental issues. Operationalise improved and climate orientated management initiatives. o General awareness and training for government, stakeholders and general public specialist training for selected personnel. Upgrading of facilities including new computer technologies, GIS etc. to be supported by training. o Develop mechanisms for devolvement of planning powers to districts with participation of the empowered stakeholders. Outputs o Integrated institutions in place o State Water Management Board fully operational o A functioning Water Resources Steering Committee with representation of different sectors to coordinate water sector activities o Establishment of an independent water regulator. o Strengthened and coordinated sector institutions including necessary reforms in place o Improved coordination and management of private sectors including strengthening of the Satluj Forum o Greater participation of communities and stakeholders Implementing o Water Resources Steering Committee, in coordination with different sector agencies, at Agencies State and District, private sector, communities and stakeholders. o To be coordinated and implemented through special project agency Climate Not sensitive - There is a requirement for effective institutions, effects of climate change sensitivity increases the importance of this activity.
Table 6: Focal Area 2: Water Resources Data and Information Systems
Overview Development of a GIS based integrated water resources information system including information on surface, groundwater, snow and glacier resources, catchments, forestry, and environment. Information on development including hydropower, irrigation, water supply, floods, agriculture, industry etc.
Would include assessment of climate impacts including simulation studies; identification of needs and strategies and implementation of selected research projects.
The GIS and information system would be based on standardised formats principles of open data sharing between the sectors as well as building and supporting parallel data and climate initiatives including the climate change centre being developed by the DEST, planned hydrology centre of DIPH, IMD precipitation data and the BBMB decision support systems for the Satluj river. Rationale There is very limited data or information system to support water resources planning and climate impacts. Data is not shared between sectors including State and Central Governments and national and international institutions. Under climate change historic data is no longer valid to support planning - new methods required to incorporate climate projections. Water resources research needs to be planned and coordinated to meet the needs of the state. Various data centres are being established; it is not proposed to establish an additional data centre but instead focus on development of the various sector information systems and effective data sharing. Records on financing of water and catchment projects are dispersed and no integrated records of expenditures by the different sectors and related programmes exist.
Description o Compilation of information of snow and glacier hydrology springs catchments. Improved field calibration of glaciers supported by remote sensing. Provision of investment support for glacier monitoring systems. o Development of improved information systems for PRC; possibly through an international organization such as ICIMOD (International Centre for Mountain Development based in Kathmandu) 23
o Specialist support to analyse the data and climate projection bring this into main stream planning. o Would build on the ongoing work under the World Bank Funded HP2 project under DIPH and the proposed DEST Climate Change Centre. o Application of information to disaster risk assessment and flood warning. o The information system would cover all the basins in the State. o Training of departments in GIS and data management. o Establishment of information exchange systems and interdepartmental linkages. o Establishment of a long term sustainable organization to manage the information system. o Compilation of financing and performance of water projects. Outputs o State of the art computer information systems within the various sectors. o Strengthened data management and open data sharing. o Guaranteed funding and specialist staff to ensure sustainability. o Development of water, snow and glacier simulation model for the Satluj. o Investment for flood warning and information systems for Indian and PRC catchment Implementing o Various water sectors agencies through the Water Water Resources Steering Committee. Agencies o To be coordinated and implemented by a specialist consultant - outputs to be given to sector agencies Climate Not sensitive - There is a requirement for good data system, climate change increases the sensitive importance.
Table 7: Focal Area 3: River and Catchment Restoration and Management
Overview Restoration of rivers and catchments based on integrated planning and applications of best practices to meet needs of sustainable catchments. Rationale Present catchment works are not sustainable - poor survival rates of trees and check structures are frequently destroyed.
CAT plans have many shortcomings and are implemented outside the Forests department. The plans are for a limited period (5-7 years) with no provision for follow on. CAT planning requires to be better integrated with the sector programmes.
Parts of the areas of the catchments have been disturbed by hydropower and roads projects including erosion slips and muck dumping. Remediation measures have not always been satisfactory
Climate change will increase the pressure on the catchments - increased rainfall intensities, rain moving into the desert areas will increase hazards, avalanche drought glacier lakes floods will become increasing hazards. Specialist protection is required to support sustainablities of vulnerable water sources.
Communities, roads and other investments are at risk from flash floods. Description o Restoration of parts of river and catchments most impacted by ongoing and completed infrastructure works. o Overall management and implementation of soil and water conservation of catchments. Applications of best practices, new initiatives and technologies to meet requirement of sustainability. o Timely implementation of CAT plans - special application of needs for conservation of spring and tributary sources. o Assessment, control and regulation of environmental flows to ensure maintenance of the aquatic ecology. o Remediation of existing muck dumping sites; remodelling of dangerous or inappropriate sites. Appropriate use of muck for social community use. o Ensuring adequate set back of buildings from rivers and tributaries. o Special protection for high risk areas-communities at risk from flood, flash flood, mud slides. Permanent engineering protection measures for river banks and vulnerable small tributary rivers (khads) to provide permanent protection for key roads. o Identification of areas of special vulnerability or environment that could be preserved as conservation areas. Support to establish selected conservation areas. Outputs o Long term sustainability of the catchments in the Satluj valley. o Development of new technologies and planting systems. o Reduced risk to communities and infrastructure from landslides and slips. o Investment in soil and water conservation in the catchments, permanent river protection, Investments in new technologies to protect against land slips, mud slides, rock-falls and washouts Implementing o The departments of Forests, Rural Development, Agriculture, Horticulture, District 24
Agencies Administration and Panchayats, and IPPs through the Water Resources Steering Committee o Studies to be coordinated and implemented by a specialist consultant together with the Independent Power Promoters IPPs Climate o Low to medium sensitivity. Climate change changes will increase the intensities of rainfall sensitivity and rainfall patterns including drought periods which should be factored into the planning and design including species selection, design of retention structures.
Table 8: Focal Area 4 Sustainable Planning and Management of Hydropower
Overview Development of integrated sustainable planning and management of proposed hydropower, under construction and operational hydropower schemes Rationale Hydropower is providing major economic and social benefits to Himachal Pradesh. There is now significant concern on the social and environmental impacts of the hydropower developments and the state is now facing major dilemmas to balance the development of hydropower with increasing pressures to maintain a sustainable environment and protect the local communities.
High level of sediment is a major problem for the hydropower production in the Satluj river resulting in system closures and major maintenance costs. Climate change will have significant impacts on the hydrology of the rivers that must be incorporated into the planning. Issues of environment and community issues require to be addressed.
Small hydropower on the tributary rivers is especially sensitive with impacts and potential conflicts with other water uses. To date mitigation or ameliorative planning and strategies have not been addressed for small hydro. Hydropower located on small tributaries is most vulnerable to rainfall and climate changes.
To date 17% of the major hydropower potential is operational, 47% under construction and 36% under or pending investigation. There is a need to develop sustainable and environmentally appropriate plans for the proposed schemes as well as address issues for schemes under construction. Description o Integrated and holistic planning of the proposed hydropower schemes to ensure compliance with environmental, social and potential climate impacts. o Special focus on micro-hydropower on the tributary rivers; assessment to improve community participation and explore options for community partnerships for micro hydropower. o Fully participative plans with communities to ensure environmental and social agreements including preparation of updated cumulative impact assessment of the river. o High level consultative processes to ensure financial, technical, social criteria are fully compliant. o Assessment of critical capacity of river and social systems to absorb full development of hydropower. Development of alternative options including maintaining part of the river or tributaries without development. o Strengthening of management and optimization of existing schemes including coordination of releases and cascade management. o Liaison with PRC to assess long term plans in the upper catchment. o Assessment of mitigation measures including revisiting requirements of schemes under construction or in operation. o Improved better coordinated and regulated compensation packages. Outputs o Long term sustainable and integrated planning for the remaining hydropower schemes in the Satluj valley o Improved management of schemes under construction or in operation o Investment in small planned hydropower projects or upgrading of existing projects and ancillary works. o Investment in deficient mitigation measures o Improved perception and support by stakeholders Implementing o Departments of Energy, Environment, IPH, Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Board Agencies (HPSEB) and concerned IPP with the Water Resources Steering Committee. o Studies to be coordinated and implemented by a specialist consultant together with the IPPs Climate o Medium to High Sensitivity. sensitivity o Changes in snow and glacier melts will affect the river flow patterns - the level of confidence that snow and glacier flows will reduce is high, the rate of decline is however less well defined. The proposed schemes are almost entirely dependent on snow and glacier melt. Hydropower investments are medium to long term investments (30-50 years) and the potential costs from non incorporation of climate change parameters would be 25
significant. o Analysis and simulation of snow and glacier changes on river and tributary flows must be modelled to high degree of confidence.
Table 9: Focal Area 5 Sustainable Irrigation and Agriculture
Overview Improved service delivery and productivity of irrigated agriculture through moves to appropriate, equitable and efficient irrigation and agricultural practices and investments. Rationale Irrigation efficiencies are low and large parts of irrigation schemes do not receive water. The long term sustainability of some schemes especially pump schemes are issues. There is poor uptake of the irrigation services provided on some schemes. Very high irrigation investments must be supported by high return and efficient precision agriculture.
Climate change will likely affect the available water from springs and tributary rivers higher efficiency water distribution systems require to be piloted for vulnerable/low water availability systems and also for lift irrigation systems. Description o Integrated development of irrigated agricultural involving full cooperation of department of IPH and Agriculture. Assessment and development of viable strategies to improve performance, efficiency and delivery of small and medium irrigation systems. o Upgrading service delivery and performance of irrigation schemes through improved management and improved technologies including the establishment of increased participation by stakeholders in irrigation management. o Development of precision agriculture including agricultural inputs and improved more efficient irrigation delivery systems especially for lift irrigation schemes. o Development of initiatives for water harvesting, conjunctive use of potable and irrigation water, use of water harvesting in conjunction with poly-houses and drip or sprinkler irrigation to minimise reliance on high head pumping projects. o Ensuring water sources under climate change are sustainable through mapping and monitoring and assessment of schemes and sources. Coordination with catchment initiatives to support the sustainability of vulnerable water sources. o Support for value added additions to agriculture produce including reduction in loss and waste, marketing, processing, storage including cold storage. o Development of small holder aquaculture systems including support systems for credit, training and marketing. o Conversion of marginal agriculture lands to forestry with payment by Carbon Credits. Outputs o Detailed assessments, planning and financing proposals to support appropriate support packages for irrigation and agriculture. o Researched and rational mechanisms for subsidies and support. o Investments and support measures for pilot schemes. o Investments or subsidies to support expansion of pilots. Implementing o Departments of Agriculture, Horticulture, IPH, District Administration and Panchayats. Agencies o Studies to be coordinated and implemented through a specialist agency, consultants and line departments under direction of the Water Resources Steering Committee. Climate o Medium sensitivity. Climate change will affect rainfall patterns, levels and timing of rainfall, sensitivity snow and glaciers which will impact on the spring and tributary flows. Lower level catchments are already affected, at higher elevations climate change impacts will impact gradually. Climate studies and simulations are required to identify risk areas. Lower altitude catchments the changes are already occurring; higher altitude catchments are more resilient.
Table 10: Focal Area 6 Sustainable Water Supplies and Sanitation
Overview Long term and sustainable water supply systems Rationale o Levels of service delivery of potable water are low and cost recovery is negligible. o Climate change and other impacts will put many water sources at risk. IPH requires to maintain and improve supply standards. o Vulnerable village schemes are being replaced high investment multiple village lift schemes which incur major O&M costs and management. o Poor performance of septic tanks due to rock terrain and shallow top soils and impermeable rock. o Almost complete lack cost recovery means most water schemes totally dependent on government finance, this lack of financial sustainability requires to be addressed. Description o Assessment and sustainability of various water sources under climate change conditions and impacts of tunnelling. o Development of improved service delivery and appropriate cost recovery. Establishment of benchmarking to ensure service delivery targets are met. 26
o Assessment and implementing pilots for new initiatives including water harvesting, water reuse, combined water supply irrigation systems to be incorporated into vulnerable schemes. o Mapping and water planning of schemes to ensure new developments for hydropower; irrigation do not create conflicts. o Support the environmental and sustainability aspects of industrial, quarrying, real estate and business development including planning for sustainable water supplies and management of waste water and impacts of quarrying works. o Support to upgrade and improve sanitation. o Support to assess and define water rights. Outputs o Integrated plan for water supply and sanitation based on inventories, monitoring and climate change assessments. o Participative assessment of planning options including institutional social and financial aspects. o Development of pilot schemes for water reuse, house rainwater tanks and combined irrigation/water supply systems. o Investment in rural water supplies and sanitation to ensure sustainability for most vulnerable communities. Investments would focus on long term sustainable solutions including reducing operational costs and avoidance of pumping. o Investment in Urban Water Supplies and sanitation including measures to improve sustainability, service delivery and cost recovery. o Institutional reforms to allow for handover of responsibilities, improved service delivery and realistic levels of tariffs. Implementing o DIPH supported by specialist consultants. Agencies Climate o Medium - Climate change will impact on sustainablities of spring, tributaries and traditional sensitivity river systems. In some catchments the risks are already occurring. Simple climate simulations and hydrological assessments should be implemented to assess most vulnerable locations which can be taken up as a priority.
Table 11: Focal Area 7 Support for Rural Enterprises, Diversification, Training and Awareness
Overview Improvement for rural employment opportunities through establishment of small enterprise as buffer against climate change impacts and long term sustainability of communities. Rationale The basin has a well educated work force but limited employment opportunities outside agriculture, government and HEPs. Low income groups including scheduled castes and tribes are especially vulnerable to climate impacts.
Hydropower projects presently provide good employment but this will decrease when schemes are completed. The project would be of benefit the wider community who have had minimal or no benefit from the hydropower investments. Unemployment is quite low but vulnerabilities to climate change can be mitigated by diversification of employment. The development of small enterprises can reduce dependence on government and agriculture. Handing over management of water and irrigation schemes to communities requires to be taken up with management, financial and business expertise. There is a need to create awareness about climate change with specialist training in selected areas. Communities need to be aware of potential areas of vulnerability. Description o Support for diversification of rural employment both on and off farm through support for small enterprises. o Priority for communities or parts of communities identified as especially vulnerable to climate change. o Support to access credit for small enterprises including precision agriculture, aquaculture, tourism, etc. Support for community enterprises to manage water projects including water supply, irrigation and micro-hydropower. o Promotion for real estate, business and industries to invest in the Satluj valley. Financial support for start up costs. o Provision of appropriate training and awareness programmes to communities to better understand the issues of development and sustainability and need and opportunities for diversification. o Improvement of communications including broadband to support development of IT related enterprises. o Support to allow better awareness to the wider communities about development issues. Outputs o A strategy for rural employment and diversification through small enterprises to reduce vulnerabilities to climate change. o Strategies for private sector, private sector partnerships. o Creation of new employment and establishment of small enterprises. 27
Implementing o Various departments, including agriculture, tourism, rural development, district Agencies administrations and Panchayats. Climate o Low - There is a need to support alternative employment opportunities; climate change will sensitivity affect sustainability of agriculture especially in parts where there is no rainfall. The upper part of the basin is highly dependent on apples which may be susceptible to climate or other impacts.
IX. ROAD MAP FOR IMPLEMENTATION
A. Satluj River Basin Sustainability Project
86. It is proposed to establish a 'Satluj River Basin Sustainability Project' to address ongoing development, environmental and potential climate issues of the Satluj River Basin in Himachal Pradesh. The project would put into place wide ranging initiatives, programmes and investments to meet the needs of river and catchment restoration, water resources development, climate adaptation and long term environmental and social sustainability of the Satluj river basin.
87. The project would be based on an IWRM approach; with a focus to address continued and sustainable development of hydropower, agriculture, irrigation, water supplies and sanitation within a framework of sustainability of the water resources, catchments, and communities incorporating the likely impacts of climate change. The sector departments presently lack the flexibilities, capacities and level of integration required to meet the project objectives and a 'special project agency' would be required.
88. An eight year project is proposed and would be implemented through a new 'special project agency'. The agency would be established for the project period, after which it would possible to hand over to the strengthened and better integrated sector agencies.
89. The project programme would be integrated involving and working closely with the key water sector agencies, the local authorities and private sector developers working through the 'special project agency' but working closely in coordination with the sector departments at State and District level, District Administrations and Panchayats. The project agency would be manned by a small core of carefully selected government staff on secondment including a senior project director. Specialist staff and consultants to be recruited as required. The project agency would strengthen and help develop better coordinated sectors within the four districts of the Satluj valley.
90. The project would in parallel work at state level to instigate institutional reforms and strengthening of the water sector departments. The establishment of IWRM and institutional reforms is critical towards the long term sustainability of water resources in the State. Institutional reforms would be implemented in stages and would include the establishment of an independent water regulator.
B. Organisation
91. It is proposed that the Project would be semi autonomous and as a multi sector project. There is a need to coordinate planning and policy decision through a high level interdepartmental working group. This project direction would be through a 'Water Resources Steering Committee ' made up of the principal secretaries of the seven key water sector agencies (Forests, Rural Development, Agriculture, Horticulture, Irrigation and Public Health, Hydropower and Environment).
92. Coordination and optimum use of the different funds (-including project funds, LADF and CAT Mahatma Ghandi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA) during the project period and for the longer term to ensure effective use and sustainability will be an important activity to be coordinated through the Water Resources Steering Committee and the project. The project would be able to provide specialist expertise for project planning for these complementary funds, together with additional resources to ensure effective and timely implementation.
93. The project approach would allow more opportunities for flexibility and opportunities to contract in specialist support and resources to meet the targeted projects achievement within the agreed time frames. The project would in parallel address the long term needs of sustainability 28
through institutional development and reform at the State level. The proposed project organisation is shown in Figure 14.
Figure 14 Satluj Sustainability Project
Government of Himachal New Water Pradesh Regulator Operational New: Water Resources standards and Bhakra Beas benchmarking Steering Committtee Management Board (BBMB) New Water Resource Management Unit
Empowered District Sector Agencies at State and District Levels- DIPH, Agriculture, Horiticulture, Planning Committee and Power, Rural Development, Forestry, Environment, ULBs, Industry Block Development Officers
SATLUJ SUSTAINABILITY PROJECT
`` STATE WIDE WATER SECTOR PROGRAMMES Effective Institutions for Integrated Water Resource Management Water Resources Data and Information Systems SATLUJ RIVER BASIN INVESTMENT and SUPPORT PROGRAMMES River and Sub Catchment Restoration and Management Hydropower Sustainable Irrigation and Agriculture Sustainable Water Supplies and Sanitation Suport for Rural Enterprises and Diversification
C. Requirements for External Support
94. The project would require external specialist support to complement the existing skills of the government and government corporation staff. One key objective of the project is to bring in the development of new ideas and technologies that might be applied to support the development and sustainability of the Satluj river. It is estimated that specialist support would be required for:(i) institutional development and reforms; (ii) specialist parts of the water resources and data systems; and (iii) new initiatives and design of pilot projects including river and catchment management, sustainable water supplies and sustainable precision irrigation and agriculture.
D. Project Scope
95. The project would involve a mixture of studies, planning, design, community liaison and participation, institutional development and reforms. The focus of investment would be the Satluj basin however wider institutional strengthening and reform would be taken up to the state level. The project would encompass the seven focal areas described above. The project would function at two levels: (i) state wide water sector programmes and (ii) specific investment and support programmes in the Satluj river. 29
1. State Wide Water Sector Programmes
96. Effective Institutions for IWRM (Focal Area 1); consultations with Government and stakeholders reveals a strong recognition of the need for better integrated and strengthened water governance and water sector reforms. The need for an independent water regulator to meet the needs of equitable and sustainable management, high levels of service delivery and cost recovery is seen to be critical. It is proposed that the Project would support the planning and implementation of institutional change including; establishment of IWRM and an apex group to coordinate water resources management, establishment and support for a water regulator, benchmarking and performance assessment of water sector projects, effective community participation in planning and management of water projects, effective and sustainable cost recovery to meet O&M costs.
97. Water Resources Data and Management Systems (Focal Area 2): planning and management of water resources requires the development of a GIS based integrated water resources information system including information on surface, groundwater, snow and glacier resources, catchments, forestry, and environment. Information on development including hydropower, irrigation, water supply, floods, agriculture, industry etc. Data on finance and project benchmark monitoring and evaluation would be included. The project would support the development of information and management systems through the development and standardisation of databases and building on information and studies being developed by the different sectors.
98. It is proposed that the project would support the DEST-led initiatives for a Climate Change Resource and Remote Sensing Centre. Support initiatives would include data management establishment and establishment and inter-sector data sharing as well as support to coordinate and implement various climate change research activities. Similar and parallel support would be provided for the proposed IPH Hydrology Centre in Mandi, the Department of Forests information system, the BBMB Decision Support System and an integrated hydropower information system as well as other information sources at State and Central level.
99. It is proposed that information would remain with the different departments who would be responsible for updating and upgrading. Data sharing mechanisms would be established to allow for easy dissemination and access to data by different departments.
100. The findings of State Climate Change Action Plan (SCCAP) currently in draft form and when finalised will provide a useful information source which should be incorporated into the project planning. The project would potentially be able to support the implementation of water aspects of the state action plan for climate change.
101. Training in data management and GIS will be required. The scoping study has developed a first stage GIS system which is summarised in Appendix 2.
102. Support for Training and Awareness (Focal Area 7): during consultations, the need for training and awareness was repeatedly identified by the stakeholders at all levels. The training requirement includes communities, water stakeholders and Government at all levels. The specific training needs require to be assessed and the scope and depth of training defined, training would include specialist technical training as well as broader training in management. Training for sustainable management of water schemes is a priority area and should be integrated with programmes to hand over scheme management to Panchayats, Urban Local Bodies ULBs and water user groups.
103. Awareness of climate change and development issues is important for the communities in the Satluj valley and it is proposed that specific awareness materials and training courses and interactive sessions are held.
2. Satluj Sub Basin Investment and Support Programmes
104. Possible areas of investment and support in Satluj basin are summarised in Table 12. The project would provide direct investment as well as provide support financing to other ongoing programmes (CAT plan, LADF, MNREGA, SCCAP, etc). Support would be provided for investment as well as specialist support for research, planning and design. 30
Table 12 Possible Areas for Investment and Support in the Satluj Basin RIVER AND SUB CATCHMENT RESTORATION AND MANAGEMENT (FOCAL AREA 3) 1. Restoration and management of sub-catchments incorporation of new technologies for sustainable planting systems soil and water conservation using integrated approaches. Special emphasis will be provided to protect and conserve vulnerable water sources at risk from climate change and protection for communities and infrastructure at risk from mud and rock slides. The project would work in parallel with the ongoing CAT plans. Development support for long term catchment sustainability. 2. Engineering protection works for critical erosion locations, permanent river protection along about 3km of critical reaches along main Satluj river. Provision of land slip protection structures including high impact rock catchment fencing along critical parts of catchments and khads. Establishment of adequate set back of development close to rivers and khads. Safety measures for glacier lakes at risk of burst. 3 Remediation parts of river, tributaries and catchment affected by hydropower projects as well other environmental degradation. Installation of sustainable retaining walls and remediation of muck dumping sites. Finance would be through the responsible independent power providers (IPP) with co-financing or loan through the project. HYDROPOWER (FOCAL AREA 4) 4. Investment support for small hydropower schemes including promotion for community partnerships in small hydropower. Support for upgrading of hydropower, transmission lines and ancillary works etc. SUSTAINABLE IRRIGATION AND AGRICULTURE (FOCAL AREA 5) 5. Investment support for high water efficiency and precision irrigated agriculture. Priority will be given to existing schemes with poor levels of performance and service delivery as well as schemes with issues of water shortage and high pumping heads. Schemes will be built and upgraded with focus on meeting targets for productivity and sustainable management. Investment support will be provided for the development of water harvesting, small storages, poly-houses and drip irrigation systems to maximise production with minimum water requirement. Specialist extension support and management reforms would be provided to ensure production targets are met and ensure sustainability. Improved community participation and handover of responsibilities for management to beneficiaries. Investment support for pilot schemes to test and demonstrate new technologies. Parallel support initiatives to encourage private sector participation. 6. Support for changes in Agriculture temperature and other climate changes will affect viabilities of cropping. Farmers will be provided support to change to robust cropping. On marginal lands support initiatives will be provided for farmers to take up tree planting with financial support from carbon sequestration funding. SUSTAINABLE WATER SUPPLIES AND SANITATION (FOCAL AREA 6) 7. Investment support for water schemes with vulnerable or inadequate water sources with vulnerability to climate change. Development of new approaches for sustainable water supplies including water harvesting, water reuse to avoid high head pumped schemes. Management support for improved service delivery, effective O&M, appropriate tariffs and cost recovery. Increased community participation in management. 8. Support for Urban Water Supplies - investment support for development for urban water supplies is only required for Shimla and Nahan (Nahan is in Sirmour district and though technically outside the basin could be considered for investment). Other towns in the basin are already adequately provided. 9. Support for sanitation; development of sanitation lags behind water supplies; poorly functioning sceptic tanks due to the impermeable rock are health risk and sources of pollution. Support for sanitation facilities including functional sceptic tanks, piped sewage and sewage treatment. Support for industrial waste water facilities. SUPPORT FOR RURAL ENTERPRISES DIVERSIFICATION,TRAINING AND AWARENESS (FOCAL AREA 7) 10. Investment support for small enterprises with special emphasis for agriculture, aquaculture, agro-processing, cold storage, marketing, micro hydropower, broadband etc. Support for Public Private Sector Partnerships, or Public Community Partnerships in appropriate areas including management of irrigation water supply projects 31
E. Project Schedule
105. The proposed project schedule is summarised in Figure 15. The project is proposed to be run in three phases over eight years. Sub-projects would be identified, planned and designed for Project 1 in year zero with implementation over four years. The need for IWRM and sustainability reforms in place is critical and three stages are proposed including the establishment of an independent water regulator by end of year two.
Figure 15 Project Schedule
ACTIVITY Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Project Phasing Project 1 Project 2 Project 3
Project Preparation State Wide Sector Programmes Effiective Institutions for IWRM Water Resources Steering Committee Established Water Regulator Established IWRM and Institutional Reforms In Place 1 2 3 Water Resources Data and Information Systems
Project 1 Sub Projects Project 2 Sub Projects Project 3 Sub Projects Project Management Unit and Support Consultants
Notes: Assessment, planning and design Institutional Reforms to be introduced in Tendering 3 stages 1, 2,3 Implementation