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Burr Narrowly Leads Marshall, Cunningham

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Burr Narrowly Leads Marshall, Cunningham FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 11, 2010 INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen) QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312 Burr Narrowly Leads Marshall, Cunningham Raleigh, N.C. – Despite improving his job performance ratings from a month ago, Senator Richard Burr is now in a near tie with Elaine Marshall and barely ahead of Cal Cunningham following the May 4 primary. Marshall now trails Burr only 43-42, versus 43-37 last month. Cunningham lags 44-39 after losing 43-35 in April. Marshall does slightly better with Democrats and independents and about the same with Republicans as Cunningham. North Carolina voters’ opinions of how Burr is handling his job inched upward from a negative 32-41 in early April to 37-40 now. Kay Hagan also went from 34-44 to 36-42. Both improved their margins among independents, Burr from -12 to -1, and Hagan from -27 to -5. Burr also improved slightly among fellow Republicans. Cunningham has raised his profile slightly more than has Marshall, and voters have broken evenly for and against him since April. Now 16% express a favorable opinion of Cunningham to 18% unfavorable, as opposed to only 5-8 in April. Marshall is still in positive territory, at 23-20, but voters split somewhat against her, from 19-11 last month. Marshall is a more polarizing candidate, with significantly better favorability numbers with Democrats and much worse numbers with Republicans than Cunningham, but that could be a factor of the impression among both parties’ voters that Marshall was the winner of the primary and the inevitable challenger to Burr. PPP will release numbers on the June 22 runoff tomorrow. “For months Richard Burr’s lead over Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham was artificially inflated because of their low name recognition,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “With the primary campaign under their belts both Democrats are now looking very competitive for the fall.” PPP surveyed 631 North Carolina voters from May 8th to 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify. If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] North Carolina Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were Senator Kay Hagan's job performance? If you Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. Richard Burr, who would you vote for? If If you're not sure, press 3. Elaine Marshall, press 1. If Richard Burr, press Approve .................. 36% Not Sure.................. 22% 2. If you’re undecided, press 3. Marshall .......................................................... 42% Disapprove.............. 42% Burr................................................................. Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican 43% Senator Richard Burr's job performance? If Undecided....................................................... 15% you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press Q7 How excited are you about casting your vote in 2. If you're not sure, press 3. the general election this fall? Approve .......................................................... 37% Very excited.................................................... 52% Disapprove...................................................... 40% Somewhat excited .......................................... 27% Not Sure.......................................................... 23% Not very excited .............................................. 16% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q3 Not sure .......................................................... of Cal Cunningham? If favorable, press 1. If 4% unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, 3. moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If Favorable .............. 16% Not Sure................ 66% moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3. Liberal............................................................. 16% Unfavorable........... 18% Moderate......................................................... Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion 41% of Elaine Marshall? If favorable, press 1. If Conservative................................................... 43% unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Q9 Would you describe the community you live in as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town? If Favorable........................................................ 23% urban, press 1. If suburban, press 2. If rural, Unfavorable .................................................... 20% press 3. If a small town, press 4. Urban.............................................................. 14% Not Sure.......................................................... 56% Suburban ........................................................ Q5 If the candidates for US Senate next year were 30% Democrat Cal Cunningham and Republican Rural ............................................................... 27% Richard Burr, who would you vote for? If Cal Small Town..................................................... Cunningham, press 1. If Richard Burr, press 2. 29% If you’re undecided, press 3. Q10 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2. Cunningham ................................................... 39% Woman ........................................................... 54% Burr................................................................. 44% Man................................................................. 46% Undecided....................................................... 17% May 8-10, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 631 North Carolina voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a Q14 Republican, press 2. If you are an independent 252.................................................................. 12% or identify with another party, press 3. 336.................................................................. 18% Democrat ........................................................ 48% 704.................................................................. 21% Republican...................................................... 35% 828.................................................................. 14% Independent/Other.......................................... 16% 910.................................................................. Q12 If you are white, press one now. If you are 13% African-American, press two now. If other, 919.................................................................. 22% press 3. White .............................................................. 74% African-American ............................................ 22% Other............................................................... 4% Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65, press 3. If older, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 10% 30 to 45........................................................... 22% 46 to 65........................................................... 44% Older than 65 .................................................. 24% May 8-10, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 631 North Carolina voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Ideology Ideology Bas e Liberal Moderate Conservative Bas e Liberal Moderate Conservative Hagan Approval Burr Approval Approve 36% 63% 48% 14% Approve 37% 14% 24% 58% Dis appr ove 42% 15% 27% 68% Dis appr ove 40% 70% 51% 18% Not Sur e 22% 22% 25% 18% Not Sur e 23% 17% 25% 24% Ideology Ideology Bas e Liberal Moderate Conservative Bas e Liberal Moderate Conservative Cunningham Marshall Favorability Favorability Favorable 23% 42% 29% 10% Favorable 16% 24% 19% 11% Unfavor able 20% 8% 17% 28% Unfavor able 18% 20% 15% 20% Not Sur e 56% 50% 53% 62% Not Sur e 66% 56% 67% 69% May 8-10, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 631 North Carolina voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Ideology Ideology Bas e Liberal Moderate Conservative Bas e Liberal Moderate Conservative Cunningham/Burr Marshall/Burr Cunningham 39% 76% 54% 11% Marshall 42% 80% 59% 12% Bur r 44% 14% 26% 72% Bur r 43% 10% 24% 74% Undecided 17% 10% 20% 17% Undecided 15% 9% 17% 14% Community Type Community Type Sm all Sm all Bas e Ur ban Suburban Rur al Town Bas e Ur ban Suburban Rur al Town Hagan Approval Bur r Appr oval Approve 36% 46% 40% 30% 33% Approve 37% 28% 37% 40% 38% Dis appr ove 42% 32% 40% 47% 46% Dis appr ove 40% 57% 41% 34% 36% Not Sur e 22% 22% 20% 23% 22% Not Sur e 23% 15% 22% 26% 26% May 8-10, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 631 North Carolina voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Community Type Community Type Sm all Sm all Bas e Ur ban Suburban Rur al Town Bas e Ur ban Suburban Rur al Town Cunningham Marshall Favorability Favorability Favorable 23% 29% 29% 19% 19% Favorable 16% 23% 17% 12% 16% Unfavorable 20% 21% 15% 23% 23% Unfavorable 18% 21% 15% 20% 16% Not Sur e 56% 51% 56% 59% 58% Not Sur e 66%
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