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2020 Elections Forecasting October 8, 2020

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2020 Elections Forecasting October 8, 2020 2020 Elections Forecasting October 8, 2020 1 Slide Index Slides 3-19: Presidential and Vice Presidential Contest Slide 4: Observations & Analysis Slide 5: Voting by Mail Slides 6-7: FiveThirtyEight Projections Slide 8-9: Cook Political Report Ratings and Observations Slide 10-11: Past & Present Polling Maps Slide 11-12: Candidate Approval Ratings Slide 13: Vice President Approval Ratings Slide 14: Will there be a winner on Election Night? Slides 1-17:: “The SCOTUS Election” & Trump’s Supreme Court Nominee Slides 18-29: Races to Watch Slides 30-44: Senate Races Slide 31: Observations & Analysis Slide 32: Current Polling Map Slides 33-44: Races to Watch Slides 45-81: House Races Slide 46: Observations & Analysis Slide 47: Current Polling Map 2 Slides 48-81: Races to Watch Presidential and Vice Presidential Contest 3 Observations & Analysis • The electoral college consists of 538 electors and an absolute majority is required to win the election (270 votes) • The major party nominees are Vice President Joe Biden (D) and President Donald Trump (R) • States to watch: • Leaning Democratic: Minnesota, New Hampshire • Leaning Republican: Texas, Iowa, Georgia • Tossups: Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin • In recent days, President Trump has suggested a COVID-19 vaccine could be approved prior to Election Day. This could be a major factor in how voters cast their votes. However, mail in voting could mean that many ballots are cast before such an announcement is made 4 Voting by Mail • Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, most states will be conducting elections by mail • According to Charlie Cook, there will still be a high voter turnout in 2020 with the majority of votes being cast by mail, but some GOP strategists are worried that President Trump’s opposition to mail-in voting could suppress the Republican vote • Eight states began mailing absentee ballots to voters more than 45 days before the election: Arkansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wisconsin • Fifteen states began mailing absentee ballots to voters 45 days before the election: Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming • Thirteen states begin mailing absentee ballots to voters 30-45 days before the election: California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota and South Carolina • Fourteen states mail absentee ballots to voters fewer than 30 days before the election: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Utah and Washington • In Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington, all voters are mailed ballots 5 FiveThirtyEight Presidential Projection ● On August 12, FiveThirtyEight issued its first 2020 presidential race projection, concluding that Vice President Biden is favored to win ● In FiveThirtyEight’s most recent simulation, Biden wins 85 in 100 scenarios, while Trump wins in 15 ● Biden is comfortably ahead of Trump right now nationally and in most battleground states ● At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls. While she had small advantage, Trump’s win was well within the range of normal polling error ● Biden’s lead over Trump has already topped Clinton’s post-convention peak. Since Biden enjoys more overall support than Clinton did four years ago, Biden is currently thought to be in a better position than Clinton was at this point in the campaign 6 FiveThirtyEight Presidential Projection Source: FiveThirtyEight.com October 8, 2020 7 Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings Source: CookPolitical.com October 6, 2020 8 Cook Political Report Observations ● On September 28, Charlie Cook said there is a 20% chance of Trump winning reelection ● Additionally, he reported there is 40% chance of Biden winning three states Hillary lost narrowly, and therefore winning the Electoral College ● There is also 40% chance Biden wins big, in a “blow away” that even brings him states such as Georgia and Texas 9 10 Source: 270towin.com As of October 6, 2020 11 Candidate Approval Ratings Trump: • According to FiveThirtyEight, as of October 8, Trump’s approval rating is 43.2% with a 53.4% disapproval rating Biden: • According to RealClearPolitics, Biden currently holds a 50.6% favorable rating with a 43.7% unfavorable rating as of October 8 • As of July 1, Biden was polling better than any presidential challenger since Bill Clinton in 1992. His polling advantages do not seem to be fading, and Vice President Biden may be able to buck the trend of diminishing polling leads going into the Fall • Biden received no discernible national polling bounce from the DNC, but he still maintains a clear lead 12 Impacts of the Vice Presidential Race ● Throughout electoral history, the importance of the vice presidential pick has been considered critical or immensely insignificant ● On August 11, Biden announced Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate. The historical nature of this choice could make the race for the second office important to the outcome of November’s election ● According to the Real Clear Politics average, Harris’ favorability rating is 47.4%, 5.6 points above her 41.8% unfavorability rating, as of October 8 ● Similarly, as of October 8, Vice President Pence’s favorability rating is 43.6%, 4.6 points below his 48.2% unfavorability rating 13 Will there be a winner on Election Night? ● In most states, mail-in ballots can be postmarked on or before Election Day and typically take longer to count. With more states expanding mail voting and more voters planning on voting by mail, it might be days or even weeks before all votes are counted ● An August 14th poll conducted by CNN/SRSS found that 53% of Biden supporters planned to vote by mail this election, compared to just 12% of Trump supporters ● The difference between the counting of election day results and the slower mail-in results could mean that President Trump may appear to have an early landslide lead on Election Day that could disappear as mail-in votes are counted ● A “red mirage,” or an early Trump landslide followed by a Biden win, could give Trump an opportunity to call into question the integrity of the election ● Hawkfish, a Democratic data and analytics firm, modeled how the Electoral College would shift as mail-in votes are counted and forecasted the results of the election could be unknown until up to four days later 14 Supreme Court Nominee 15 “The SCOTUS Election” ● Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death on September 18 left a seat open on the court that could potentially be filled before the end of this year ○ While Amy Coney Barrett has been named, her confirmation may be delayed due to COVID cases among GOP senators or even blocked during the lame duck period ● On September 21, Senate Majority Leader McConnell said the chamber would vote on a Trump nominee by the end of the year ● Democrats have cried foul as the GOP pushes to swiftly fill the vacancy, noting that Republicans refused to hold hearings on former President Barack Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland during the 2016 election, claiming the next president should choose a justice ● This issue is likely to activate both Democrats’ and Republicans’ base ● According to a recent CNBC.Change Research poll, most voters in six 2020 election swing states said President Trump should not be able to pick a Supreme Court nominee if he loses in November 16 Amy Coney Barrett • Was officially named as President Trump’s nominee on September 26 • U.S. Seventh Circuit Court Judge • Former clerk to Justice Antonin Scalia • Was a finalist for the Supreme Court spot that went to Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 • Democratic senators and liberal advocates have long opposed her, warning particularly that she could roll back abortion rights and invalidate the Affordable Care Act 17 States to Watch 18 Minnesota Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Star Tribune Polls from September 23 September 8 to Biden: 48 September 24 Trump: 42 Biden: 50.4 Spread: Biden +6 Trump: 41 Spread: Biden +9.4 19 New Hampshire Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Emerson October 1 Polls from Biden: 52 September 8 to October 1 Trump: 45 Biden: 51.8 Spread: Biden +7 Trump: 43.4 Spread: Biden +8.4 20 Texas Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: UM Lowell Polls from August 28 September 25 to September 25 Biden: 46 Biden: 45.2 Trump: 50 Trump: 48.4 Spread: Trump: +4 Spread: Trump: +3.2 21 Iowa Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: Quinnipiac Polls from October 5 September 14 to October 5 Biden: 50 Biden: 47.2 Trump: 45 Trump: 45.8 Spread: Biden: +5 Spread: Biden: +1.4 22 Georgia Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Source: WSB-TV Compilation Data September 30 Polls from Biden: 47 September 11 to Trump: 45 September 30 Spread: Biden: +2 Biden: 46.8 Trump: 46.5 Spread: Biden: +0.3 23 Florida Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: Reuters Polls from September October 7 21 to October 7 Biden: 49 Biden: 48.6 Trump: 45 Trump: 44.1 Spread: Biden +4 Spread: Biden +4.5 24 Arizona Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Reuters Polls from September October 7 15 to October 7 Biden: 48 Biden: 48.8 Trump: 46 Trump: 45.7 Spread: Biden +2 Spread: Biden +3.1 25 North Carolina
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