2020 Elections Forecasting October 8, 2020
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The Long Red Thread How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in Us House of Representatives Elections, 1964
THE LONG RED THREAD HOW DEMOCRATIC DOMINANCE GAVE WAY TO REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE IN U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ELECTIONS, 1964-2018 by Kyle Kondik A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Baltimore, Maryland September 2019 © 2019 Kyle Kondik All Rights Reserved Abstract This history of U.S. House elections from 1964-2018 examines how Democratic dominance in the House prior to 1994 gave way to a Republican advantage in the years following the GOP takeover. Nationalization, partisan realignment, and the reapportionment and redistricting of House seats all contributed to a House where Republicans do not necessarily always dominate, but in which they have had an edge more often than not. This work explores each House election cycle in the time period covered and also surveys academic and journalistic literature to identify key trends and takeaways from more than a half-century of U.S. House election results in the one person, one vote era. Advisor: Dorothea Wolfson Readers: Douglas Harris, Matt Laslo ii Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………....ii List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………..iv List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………..v Introduction: From Dark Blue to Light Red………………………………………………1 Data, Definitions, and Methodology………………………………………………………9 Chapter One: The Partisan Consequences of the Reapportionment Revolution in the United States House of Representatives, 1964-1974…………………………...…12 Chapter 2: The Roots of the Republican Revolution: -
Kilpatrick Stockton's Cal Cunningham Receives Gen. Douglas Macarthur Leadership Award at Pentagon Ceremony
Kilpatrick Stockton's Cal Cunningham Receives Gen. Douglas MacArthur Leadership Award at Pentagon Ceremony WINSTON-SALEM (June 10) -- Kilpatrick Stockton announced today that litigation attorney Cal Cunningham was recently presented with the Army’s top leadership award, the Gen. Douglas MacArthur Leadership Award, at a ceremony held at the Pentagon. Army Chief of Staff Gen. George W. Casey presented the MacArthur Award, a 15- pound bronze bust of the general, to 28 company-grade officers of all three Army components. Each officer was awarded for exhibiting outstanding military performance, leadership and achievement, and for reflecting the ideals for which Gen. MacArthur stood - duty, honor, and country. Mr. Cunningham was one of seven Army Reserve officers to receive this year’s award. In the 25 years that the award has been given, only two other attorneys have been selected. “These award winners demonstrate the tremendous quality that we are privileged to have throughout our Army,” said Gen. George Casey at the awards ceremony. “These are top performers that have led in the most difficult and dangerous missions and brought out the best in the men and women they led.” Earlier this year, Mr. Cunningham received the Bronze Star while serving in Iraq as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom. A captain and paratrooper in the U.S. Army Reserves, Mr. Cunningham received the medal for “exceptionally meritorious service to the United States” as the senior trial counsel in the Office of the Staff Judge Advocate, Multi-National Corps-Iraq, at Camp Victory in Iraq from December 15, 2007 to November 19, 2008. -
Newly Elected Representatives in the 114Th Congress
Newly Elected Representatives in the 114th Congress Contents Representative Gary Palmer (Alabama-6) ....................................................................................................... 3 Representative Ruben Gallego (Arizona-7) ...................................................................................................... 4 Representative J. French Hill (Arkansas-2) ...................................................................................................... 5 Representative Bruce Westerman (Arkansas-4) .............................................................................................. 6 Representative Mark DeSaulnier (California-11) ............................................................................................. 7 Representative Steve Knight (California-25) .................................................................................................... 8 Representative Peter Aguilar (California-31) ................................................................................................... 9 Representative Ted Lieu (California-33) ........................................................................................................ 10 Representative Norma Torres (California-35) ................................................................................................ 11 Representative Mimi Walters (California-45) ................................................................................................ 12 Representative Ken Buck (Colorado-4) ......................................................................................................... -
Online Media and the 2016 US Presidential Election
Partisanship, Propaganda, and Disinformation: Online Media and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Faris, Robert M., Hal Roberts, Bruce Etling, Nikki Bourassa, Ethan Zuckerman, and Yochai Benkler. 2017. Partisanship, Propaganda, and Disinformation: Online Media and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society Research Paper. Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:33759251 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA AUGUST 2017 PARTISANSHIP, Robert Faris Hal Roberts PROPAGANDA, & Bruce Etling Nikki Bourassa DISINFORMATION Ethan Zuckerman Yochai Benkler Online Media & the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This paper is the result of months of effort and has only come to be as a result of the generous input of many people from the Berkman Klein Center and beyond. Jonas Kaiser and Paola Villarreal expanded our thinking around methods and interpretation. Brendan Roach provided excellent research assistance. Rebekah Heacock Jones helped get this research off the ground, and Justin Clark helped bring it home. We are grateful to Gretchen Weber, David Talbot, and Daniel Dennis Jones for their assistance in the production and publication of this study. This paper has also benefited from contributions of many outside the Berkman Klein community. The entire Media Cloud team at the Center for Civic Media at MIT’s Media Lab has been essential to this research. -
Scoville, Curtailing the Cudgel of "Coordination"
Curtailing the Cudgel of “Coordination” by Curing Confusion: How States Can Fix What the Feds Got Wrong on Campaign Finance GEORGE S. SCOVILLE III* I. INTRODUCTION.......................................................................... 465 II. FEDERAL COORDINATION DOCTRINE ........................................ 475 A. Establishing the Regime .............................................. 475 1. The Federal Election Campaign Act and Buckley’s Curious Dual Anti-Corruption Rationale ................ 475 2. The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, the FEC’s Coordination Regulations, and Recent Cases .......... 482 B. Hypos Showing Ambiguity in Federal Conduct Standards ...................................................... 487 1. The Coffee Shop Hypo........................................... 487 2. The Photo Hypo ..................................................... 488 3. The Polling Hypo ................................................... 489 * Editor-in-Chief, Volume 48 The University of Memphis Law Review; Candidate for Juris Doctor and Business Law Certificate, 2018, The University of Memphis Cecil C. Humphreys School of Law; Master of Public Policy, 2011, American University School of Public Affairs. For Emily, whose steadfast love has been the sine qua non of my studies. Thank you to countless family, friends, colleagues, and mentors for boundless guidance and support, especially Capital University Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault Professor of Law Bradley A. Smith, Cecil C. Humphreys School of Law Professors Steven J. Mulroy and John M. Newman, and my colleagues, past and present, at The University of Memphis Law Review, especially Callie Tran, Liz Stagich, and Connor Dugosh. “If I have seen further, it is by standing on ye shoulders of giants.” Letter from Isaac Newton to Robert Hooke (Feb. 5, 1675) (on file with the Historical Society of Pennsylvania), http://digitallibrary.hsp.org/index.php/Detail/Object/Show/object_id/9285. 463 464 The University of Memphis Law Review Vol. -
Oberweis Supports Making It Harder for Women to Get Birth Control and Opposes a Woman's Right to Choose Even in Cases of Rape
Oberweis supports making it harder for women to get birth control and opposes a woman’s right to choose even in cases of rape and incest. 2016: Oberweis Voted Against Requiring Individual Or Group Health Policies To Cover All Contraceptive Drugs. Oberweis voted against HB5576, “Makes changes to a Section concerning coverage for contraceptives. Provides that an individual or group health policy shall provide coverage for all contraceptive drugs, devices, and other products approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration, including over-the-counter contraceptive drugs, devices, and products; voluntary sterilization procedures; contraceptive services, patient education, and counseling on contraception; and follow-up services related to their use. Provides that if the United States Food and Drug Administration has approved one or more therapeutic equivalent versions of a contraceptive drug, device, or product, a policy is not required to include all therapeutic equivalent versions in its formulary, so long as at least one is included and covered without cost-sharing; if an individual's attending provider recommends a particular service or item approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration based on a determination of medical necessity with respect to that individual, the plan or issuer must cover that service or item without cost sharing and the plan or issuer must defer to the determination of the attending provider; if a drug, device or product is not covered, plans and issuers must have an easily accessible, transparent, and sufficiently expedient process that is not unduly burdensome on the individual or a provider or person acting as a patient's authorized representative to ensure coverage without cost sharing; and that coverage must provide for the dispensing of 12 months' worth of contraception at one time. -
Call to Action to Restore Housing Bonds in House Tax Reform Bill
Call to Action to Restore Housing Bonds in House Tax Reform Bill Dear partners in affordable housing, The just-released House Republican tax reform bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, H.R. 1, proposes to eliminate tax-exempt private activity bonds (PABs), including both multifamily and single-family Housing Bonds issued after 2017. The bill contradicts all previous reports, from sources both in Congress and within the Administration that suggested the bill would maintain tax-exempt PABs. Utah Housing Corporation and all other state HFAs have utilized tax-exempt PABs to fund mortgage loan programs for lower income first time home buyers. Utah Housing has funded some 70,000 single family mortgages and 10,000 multifamily rental housing mortgages for low income tenants using PABs as the source of capital to purchase or make these loans. During the past few years while interest rates have been at all-time lows, these types of bonds have not provided the large spread in mortgage rate funded with PABs they once offered when interest rates were high. However when interest rates ultimately do rise to “normal” levels, we will all look back and be grateful Congress took the long view and not just the short term outlook to make the tax bill “revenue neutral.” As partners working to strengthen affordable housing in Utah we encourage you to immediately contact the Utah Congressional delegation and ask them to communicate to Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX) and Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA) the need to restore tax-exempt private activity Housing Bonds in the tax reform bill, H.R. -
Politics in Science 1 Running Head: Politics And
Politics in Science 1 Running Head: Politics and Science Is research in social psychology politically biased? Systematic empirical tests and a forecasting survey to address the controversy Orly Eitan† INSEAD Domenico Viganola† Stockholm School of Economics Yoel Inbar† University of Toronto Anna Dreber Stockholm School of Economics and University of Innsbruck Magnus Johannesson Stockholm School of Economics Thomas Pfeiffer Massey University Stefan Thau & Eric Luis Uhlmann†* INSEAD †First three and last author contributed equally *Corresponding author: Eric Luis Uhlmann ([email protected]) Politics in Science 2 Abstract The present investigation provides the first systematic empirical tests for the role of politics in academic research. In a large sample of scientific abstracts from the field of social psychology, we find both evaluative differences, such that conservatives are described more negatively than liberals, and explanatory differences, such that conservatism is more likely to be the focus of explanation than liberalism. In light of the ongoing debate about politicized science, a forecasting survey permitted scientists to state a priori empirical predictions about the results, and then change their beliefs in light of the evidence. Participating scientists accurately predicted the direction of both the evaluative and explanatory differences, but at the same time significantly overestimated both effect sizes. Scientists also updated their broader beliefs about political bias in response to the empirical results, providing -
Preservation Focus 2002 Was the Most Productive in County History, Evans Said
The five-year period ending in Preservation focus 2002 was the most productive in county history, Evans said. Kane County has invested at least $14million to benefit his- By William Presecky toric buildings, programs and Tribune staff reporter heritage tourism, board Chair- man Mike McCoy said, about Unlikely as it is to spawn a tit- $11 million of it from riverboat illating movie-plot, as in the funds. current movie "Calendar Sincereceiving its first allot- Girls," Kane County's 2004 pic- ment from the Elgin casino in torial calendar nevertheless of- 1997, Kane County has accepted fers an exposé of sorts. -. and doled out about $74 million The calendar features a doz- in riverboat grants, primarily en of the most prominent pres- for capital projects that benefit ervation projects the county the environment, economic de- has underwritten in the last velopment or education. several years, in part by uti- Inmaking its funding deci- lizing millions of dollars in riv- sions, the County Board early erboat casino revenue. on defined historic preserva- Since 1997 Kane County has tion as having an educational invested more than $14 million benefit, McCoy said, in a campaign to preserve its "And we consider farmland heritage that may be the most protection as historic preserva- ambitious in the state in scope tion," he said. and size, according to Julia Like . the 2002 calendar, Evans, the county's preserva- McCoy said, the 2004 offering is tion planner. intended spread public aware- "As far as counties go, there ness. probably isn't any in Illinois "We don't do a county news- that has given more than Kane letter or anything like that. -
Freshman Senators About
Illinois Senate Freshman Senators About The 102nd Illinois General Assembly will include at least 27 freshmen members. By comparison, the 101st General Assembly had at least 47 freshmen at the start of it, with several more who joined the body in 2019 and 2020. The Senate’s political makeup for the 102nd General Assembly includes 41 Democrats and 18 Republicans. In the Senate, the freshman class includes five Democrats, two of which were recently appointed, and three Republicans. Two more senators are set to join the freshman class after replacements are picked to fill the seats held by Sen. Bill Brady (R-Bloomington) and Sen. Andy Manar (D-Bunker Hill), who recently announced their resignations. The Daily Line’s freshman guide offers a concise overview of this year’s class of newcomers. The information included in the guide is based on public records and the member’s campaign and legislative websites. Throughout the legislative session, this guide will be updated to reflect newly available information. 1 Illinois Senate District Map 30 30 27 20 27 20 49 49 43 43 37 37 55 58 55 58 2 Darren Bailey Terri Bryant John Connor State Senator (55) State Senator (58) State Senator (43) Xenia Murphysboro Lockport Republican Republican Democrat Page 4 Page 4 Page 5 Adriane Johnson Meg Loughran Cappel Cristina Pacione-Zayas State Senator (30) State Senator (49) State Senator (20) Riverwoods Shorewood Chicago Democrat Democrat Democrat Page 5 Page 6 Page 6 Win Stoller Karina Villa State Senator (37) State Senator (27) East Peoria West Chicago Republican -
Disinformation, and Influence Campaigns on Twitter 'Fake News'
Disinformation, ‘Fake News’ and Influence Campaigns on Twitter OCTOBER 2018 Matthew Hindman Vlad Barash George Washington University Graphika Contents Executive Summary . 3 Introduction . 7 A Problem Both Old and New . 9 Defining Fake News Outlets . 13 Bots, Trolls and ‘Cyborgs’ on Twitter . 16 Map Methodology . 19 Election Data and Maps . 22 Election Core Map Election Periphery Map Postelection Map Fake Accounts From Russia’s Most Prominent Troll Farm . 33 Disinformation Campaigns on Twitter: Chronotopes . 34 #NoDAPL #WikiLeaks #SpiritCooking #SyriaHoax #SethRich Conclusion . 43 Bibliography . 45 Notes . 55 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study is one of the largest analyses to date on how fake news spread on Twitter both during and after the 2016 election campaign. Using tools and mapping methods from Graphika, a social media intelligence firm, we study more than 10 million tweets from 700,000 Twitter accounts that linked to more than 600 fake and conspiracy news outlets. Crucially, we study fake and con- spiracy news both before and after the election, allowing us to measure how the fake news ecosystem has evolved since November 2016. Much fake news and disinformation is still being spread on Twitter. Consistent with other research, we find more than 6.6 million tweets linking to fake and conspiracy news publishers in the month before the 2016 election. Yet disinformation continues to be a substantial problem postelection, with 4.0 million tweets linking to fake and conspiracy news publishers found in a 30-day period from mid-March to mid-April 2017. Contrary to claims that fake news is a game of “whack-a-mole,” more than 80 percent of the disinformation accounts in our election maps are still active as this report goes to press. -
CHC Task Force Meeting November 20, 2020 Zoom Help
CHC Task Force Meeting November 20, 2020 Zoom Help You can also send questions through Chat. Send questions to Everyone or a specific person. Everyone will be muted. You can unmute yourself to ask questions by clicking on the microphone or phone button. Agenda • Welcome, Chris Shank, President & CEO, NCCHCA • Election Debrief, Harry Kaplan & Jeff Barnhart, McGuireWoods Consulting • 2021 Policy Priorities, Brendan Riley, Director of Policy, NCCHCA • Experience with Carolina Access, Daphne Betts-Hemby, CFO, Kinston Community Health Center • Updates, Shannon Dowler, MD, NC Division of Health Benefits • Wrap-Up Slides & Other Info will be available on our website: www.ncchca.org/covid-19/covid19-general-information/ Welcome from Chris Shank, President & CEO, NCCHCA North Carolina Election Recap November 18, 2020 McGuireWoods | 5 CONFIDENTIAL THE COUNT McGuireWoods Consulting | 6 CONFIDENTIAL VOTER TURNOUT In North Carolina… ✓ 5,545,859 voters ✓ 75.4% of registered voters cast a ballot ✓4,629,200 of voters voted early ✓ 916,659 voted on Election Day ✓ Voter turnout increased about 6% over 2016 McGuireWoods Consulting | 7 CONFIDENTIAL FEDERAL RACES McGuireWoods Consulting | 8 CONFIDENTIAL FEDERAL RACES ✓ US PRESIDENT President Donald Trump (R) Former Vice President Joe Biden INCUMBENT (D) 2,758,776 (49.93%) 2,684,303 (48.59%) ✓ US SENATE Cal Cunningham (D) Thom Tillis (R) 2,569,972 (46.94%) INCUMBENT 2,665,605(48.69%) McGuireWoods | 9 CONFIDENTIAL FEDERAL RACES US HOUSE Virginia Foxx (R)- INCUMBENT- 66.93% ✓ DISTRICT 9: David Brown (D)- 31.11%