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Lebanon Weekly Monitor

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Lebanon Weekly Monitor MAY 11 - MAY 17, 2020 WEEK 20 CONTACTS The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR Treasury & Capital Markets _____________________________________________________________________________Economy Bechara Serhal p.2 A 24% DECLINE IN IMPORTS LEADING TO A 36% DROP IN TRADE DEFICIT IN THE (961-1) 977421 [email protected] FIRST TWO MONTHS OF 2020 The latest foreign trade statistics released by Lebanon’s Customs Authority for the first two months of Nadine Akkawi 2020 suggest a net contraction in imports by a yearly 24.1%, alongside a 26.1% growth in exports, which (961-1) 977401 generated a reduction in the trade deficit by 36.0% when compared to the first two months of 2019, a [email protected] trend that is likely to continue and develop further over the months to come. Private Banking Also in this issue Toufic Aouad p.3 Lebanese economy could slowly return to growth in 2021, as per the IIF (961-1) 954922 p.4 Lebanon's GDP to drop by 11% in 2020, as per the EBRD [email protected] Surveys Corporate Banking _____________________________________________________________________________ p.5 LEBANON RANKS SECOND IN MENA AND 102ND GLOBALLY IN 2020 WORLD Khalil Debs PRESS FREEDOM INDEX, SAYS RSF (961-1) 977229 According to the “2020 World Press Freedom Index” released by Reporters Without Borders (RSF) in [email protected] which it ranked 180 countries across the globe according to their press freedom levels, Lebanon came second in the region with a score of 33.19 and a global rank of 102. Also in this issue p.6 Lebanon economy to contract significantly in first half of the 2020-2024, says EIU RESEARCH _____________________________________________________________________________Corporate News p.7 COVID-19 EPIDEMIC MAKES WAY FOR ONLINE SHOPPING SITES IN LEBANON With the majority of businesses forced to lower the curtain and the population invited to stay home, the Marwan Barakat Covid-19 epidemic is making way for online shopping sites. (961-1) 977409 [email protected] Also in this issue p.8 Indevco Group launches several projects for production of protective and medical equipment Jamil Naayem (961-1) 977406 Markets In Brief _____________________________________________________________________________ [email protected] p.9 FIRST WEEKLY EXPANSION IN TOTAL RESIDENT DEPOSITS SINCE OCTOBER 2019 Salma Saad Baba With Lebanon starting officially talks with the IMF on a financial recovery plan, and as the cabinet asked (961-1) 977346 the Central Bank of Lebanon to inject US dollars in the market to curb FX moves while licensed FX [email protected] dealers remained on strike for the third consecutive week, the country’s capital markets were marked by stability in bond prices and weekly expansion in total resident deposits, while the “Sell Rate” of the Fadi Kanso US dollar in the black market remained above the LP/US$ 4,000 threshold. Most Lebanese Eurobonds (961-1) 977470 saw no price change week-on-week, while internationals showed a shy bid for some sovereigns. On [email protected] the currency trading market, the “Sell Rate” of US dollar in the black market reached LP/US$ 4,200 on Wednesday, while BDL ordered money transfer services operating outside commercial banks to pay Gerard Arabian incoming transfers in local currency at LP/US$ 3,200. Finally, the latest monetary aggregates showed (961-1) 964047 that total resident deposits registered their first weekly expansion since October 2019, driven by FC [email protected] deposit growth, while the overnight rate remained stable at a low level of 3%. Farah Nahlawi (961-1) 959747 [email protected] LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF MAY 11 - MAY 17, 2020 Nivine Turyaki (961-1) 959615 [email protected] Week 20 May 11 - May 17, 2020 1 Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] MAY 11 - MAY 17, 2020 WEEK 20 ECONOMY ______________________________________________________________________________ A 24% DECLINE IN IMPORTS LEADING TO A 36% DROP IN TRADE DEFICIT IN THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF 2020 The latest foreign trade statistics released by Lebanon’s Customs Authority for the first two months of 2020 suggest a net contraction in imports by a yearly 24.1%, alongside a 26.1% growth in exports, which generated a reduction in the trade deficit by 36.0% when compared to the first two months of 2019, a trend that is likely to continue and develop further over the months to come. Within this context and amid contracting trade deficit, the balance of payments recorded a smaller deficit of US$ 1.1 billion over the first quarter of 2020, compared to a larger deficit of US$ 2.0 billion in the previous year’s corresponding period. Subsequently, the sum of exports and imports went down by 15.8% to reach US$ 2.8 billion over the first two months of the year, while the exports to imports ratio reached a historical high level of 32.1% over the same period. Going further into details, exports reached US$ 676 million over the first two months of 2020, compared to US$ 536 million over the previous year’s corresponding period. The breakdown of exports by product suggests that the most significant increase among the major categories was reported by jewelry with 58.8%, metals and metal products with 50.0%, vegetable products with 17.2% and chemical products with 9.1% over the first two months of 2020 when compared to the first two months of 2019, while the most significant decline among the major categories was reported by plastic products with 37.0% and papers and paper products with 19.0% between the two periods. The breakdown of exports by major recipient countries suggests that Switzerland reported the most significant hike of 135.1% year-on-year (with a share of 33% of total exports), followed by UAE with an increase of 48.1%, Egypt and Iraq with 33.3% each, Jordan with 30.8% and Saudi Arabia with 26.5%, while exports to Syria reported a significant decline of 47.5%, followed by Qatar with 24.0% between the two periods. It is worth mentioning that land exports through Syria posted a negative trend with a drop by 27.8%, moving from US$ 54 million to US$ 39 million, while exports through Hariri international Airport witnessed a hike by 49.6% along with a relative increase in exports through the Port of Beirut by 6.5% over the same period. LEBANON'S FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITY Source: Lebanon's Customs Administration Week 20 May 11 - May 17, 2020 2 MAY 11 - MAY 17, 2020 WEEK 20 In parallel, total imports reached US$ 2.1 billion over the first two months of 2020, from US$ 2.8 billion in the same period of 2019. The breakdown of imports by product suggests that the most significant decline was that registered by metals and metal products with 63.9% year-on-year, followed by transport vehicles with 61.1%, plastic products with 60.7%, electrical equipments with 59.9% and textiles and textile products with 46.6%. On the other hand, the main items to have displayed a significant increase were mineral products with 47.3% and jewelry with 27.6% over the first two months of 2020 relative to 2019 same period. The breakdown of imports by country of origin over the same period shows that imports from China decreased by 61.7%, i.e the most among major partners, followed by Egypt with 50.0%, France with 44.4%, Germany with 41.3%, Russia with 32.8%, USA with 24.5%, and Switzerland with 18.9% year-on- year. On the other hand, imports from Turkey witnessed the most significant increase among the major partners with 61.9% year-on-year, followed by UAE with 38.9% over the first two months of 2020 when compared to the first two months of 2019. _____________________________________________________________________________ LEBANESE ECONOMY COULD SLOWLY RETURN TO GROWTH IN 2021, AS PER THE IIF According to a recent report by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the Lebanese economy now seems to be turning the corner. The authorities have developed a five-year comprehensive reform program, which could be supported by the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. The government’s plan provides a comprehensive base for negotiations with the IMF. According to the report, the current government’s five-year reform program is the first comprehensive, candid, and bold plan of the Lebanese economy. The program lays out an ambitious strategy aimed at narrowing the large twin deficits and reducing Lebanon’s large debt overhang. The authorities’ fiscal strategy is complemented by structural reforms and public debt restructuring that will help lay the foundation for strong, sustainable, and equitable growth along with robust job creation. At the fiscal level, the fiscal component of the reform package aims at balancing the budget and reaching a primary balance of 3.4% by 2024. LEBANON'S MEDIUM-TERM MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK Sources: IIF, Bank Audi's Group Research Department Week 20 May 11 - May 17, 2020 3 MAY 11 - MAY 17, 2020 WEEK 20 This requires capitalizing on lower global oil prices to eliminate the electricity subsidy as early as 2022, along with cutting inefficient spending and increasing budgetary revenues. The latter does not necessarily mean an increase in taxes with a potential IMF program. Even with the existing tax and customs rates, there is room for significant increase in tax revenues, including by better collection and by combating fraud and smuggling at all points of entry.
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