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Lebanon This Week Issue 174 July 12-17, 2010 Economic Research & Analysis Department LEBANON THIS WEEK In This Issue Charts of the Week Economic Indicators.....................1 Projected Total Gross External Debt of Arab Countries in 2010 (% of GDP) 198 200 Capital Markets............................1 Lebanon in the News....................2 150 140 Public financial management in need of reforms, political obstacles limit progress 100 87 69 61 57 55 FDI in Lebanon at 14.3% of GDP in 51 48 2009, highest in the Arab world 50 24 22 21 21 20 17 13 9 7 Association of Banks amends reference 5 rate on US dollar and Lebanese pound 0 lending UAE Iraq Egypt Syria Qatar Sudan Oman Libya Main challenge of electricity sector is to Tunisia Jordan Yemen Kuwait Algeria gain consumers’ trust LebanonBahrain Djibouti Morocco Mauritania Saudi Arabia Balance of payments posts surplus of $1.2bn in first five months of 2010 Total Gross External Debt in Lebanon (% of GDP) Opened letters of credits at $1.3bn for imports and $946m for exports in first 220 quarter 210.6 210 World Bank loans disbursed to Lebanon 198.8 total $138m as at June 2010 200 195.2 198.4 Most tourists spending in Lebanon origi- 190 194.1 nates from Saudi Arabia and UAE in first half of 2010 180 Airport passengers up 16.3% in first half 170 175.1 of 2010 160 Coincident Indicator up 14.4% year-on- year in May 2010 150 Corporate Highlights ...................7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f Byblos Bank lists additional shares on Beirut bourse Source: International Monetary Fund INDEVCO launches joint venture for North American market Quote to Note Future Pipe Industries closes manufac- turing plant in Lebanon “Lebanese banks have benefited from a highly liquid and well-regulated domestic mar- ket that has been resilient to the global financial crisis.” FFA to launch financial services firm in Syria The Banker magazine, on the inclusion of 9 Lebanese banks in its annual list Swiss Group becomes sole sahreholder of the Top 1000 Banks in the World in Near East Commercial Bank Kafalat loan guarantees reach $90m in first half of 2010 Number of the Week Ratio Highlights............................8 108%: Public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2015 with the implementation of basic revenue- enhancing measures and the rehabilitation of Electricité du Liban, as projected Risk Outlook.................................8 by the Institute of International Finance Ratings & Outlook.......................8 Economic Indicators $m (unless otherwise mentioned) 2008 Apr 09 2009 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 % Change* Exports 3,478 231 3,486 342 374 328 41.99 Imports 16,133 1,797 16,241 1,206 1,934 1,377 (23.37) Trade Balance (12,655) (1,566) (12,755) ( 864) ( 1,560) (1,049) 33.01 Balance of Payments 3,462 839 7,899 759 264 424 (49.46) Checks Cleared in LBP 9,350 804 11,122 966 1,187 1,058 31.59 Checks Cleared in FC 43,174 3,222 45,270 3,929 5,302 4,615 43.23 Total Checks Cleared 52,524 4,026 56,392 4,895 6,489 5,673 40.91 Budget Deficit/Surplus (2,921) (76) (2,960) (176) ( 377) (110) 44.74 Primary Balance 597 363 1,078 123 62 291 (19.83) Airport Passengers 4,085,334 392,556 4,986,544 339,237 363,742 438,328 11.66 $bn (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec 2008 Apr 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 % Change* BdL FX Reserves 17.06 19.33 26.78 26.88 27.17 27.32 41.33 In months of Imports 15.03 10.75 21.50 22.29 14.04 14.04 30.60 Public Debt 47.02 47.77 51.65 51.98 51.46 51.49 7.79 Net Public Debt 41.49 42.69 43.92 44.20 44.40 44.34 3.87 Bank Assets 94.25 99.63 116.52 118.27 119.91 120.64 21.09 Bank Deposits (Private Sector) 77.78 82.62 95.99 97.07 98.14 99.13 19.98 Bank Loans to Private Sector 25.04 25.76 29.36 29.87 30.71 31.04 20.50 Money Supply M2 24.76 27.77 34.77 35.42 36.23 36.72 32.23 Money Supply M3 68.66 72.28 82.43 83.75 84.96 85.75 18.64 LBP Lending Rate (%) 9.95 9.83 8.91 8.83 8.69 8.48 (136b.p.) LBP Deposit Rate (%) 7.22 7.08 6.61 6.42 6.11 6.00 (108b.p.) USD Lending Rate (%) 7.47 7.21 7.26 7.26 7.01 7.10 (11b.p.) USD Deposit Rate (%) 3.33 3.24 3.04 2.99 2.86 2.84 (40b.p.) %* Change in CPI** 6.36 2.00 4.96 9.04 8.73 6.55 455b.p. * Year-on-Year; ** Consumer Price Index Note: b.p. i.e. basis point Sources: ABL, BdL Capital Markets Most Traded Last Price % Change* Total Weight in Sovereign Coupon Mid Price Mid Yield Stocks on BSE ($) Volume Market Eurobonds % $ % Capitalization Solidere "A" 21.60 (5.26) 202,777 17.03% Nov. 2010 6.875 101.50 2.04 Solidere "B" 21.02 (7.73) 82,748 11.10% May 2011 7.875 104.38 2.51 Byblos Common 1.79 (1.10) 358,490 5.07% Mar. 2012 7.500 106.50 3.43 Byblos Priority 1.80 0.00 3,700 2.92% Sep. 2012 7.750 108.50 3.55 Byblos Pref. 08 100.00 0.00 2,000 1.58% June 2013 8.625 112.75 3.93 BLOM GDR 91.15 1.28 4,328 5.31% Apr. 2015 10.000 120.50 5.07 BLOM Listed 87.00 0.00 8,125 14.75% Jan. 2016 8.500 115.50 5.20 Audi GDR 8.37 0.24 14,500 6.71% May 2016 11.625 128.75 5.70 Audi Listed 8.00 1.14 333,500 21.72% Mar. 2017 9.000 117.50 5.80 HOLCIM 13.60 0.74 5,130 2.09% Apr. 2021 8.250 113.44 6.48 Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE); *Week-on-week Source: Byblos Capital Markets Dec July 12-17,10 July 5-10,10 % Change June 2010 June 2009 % Change Total Shares Traded 1,059,989 2,355,885 (55.01) 5,167,659 8,778,166 (41.13) Total Value Traded $11,977,516 $49,918,948 (76.01) $47,678,154 $174,823,842 (72.73) Market Capitalization $12.70bn $12.50bn 1.81 $12.50bn $11.31bn 10.51 Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) LEBANON THIS WEEK July 12-17, 2010 1 Lebanon in the News Public financial management in need of reforms, political obstacles limit progress A World Bank assessment of public financial management (PFM) in Lebanon indicated that Budget Transparency Levels & Rankings progress on related reforms has been slow and challenging, and that reform programs have Transparency Arab Global been repeatedly interrupted by political unrest. The assessment covered the credibility of Country Level Rank Rank the budget; comprehensiveness and transparency; policy-based budgeting; predictability Jordan 52% 1 31 and control in budget execution; accounting, recording and reporting; and external scrutiny Egypt 43% 2 41 and audit. It said that the most successful PFM reforms have been in tax administration, Lebanon 32% 3 57 especially the introduction of the value added tax. But progress on the expenditures side has Morocco 27% 4 59 been more limited, although some reforms were introduced in the 2005-07 period despite Yemen 9% 5 69 the adverse impact of the protracted political stalemate that also paralyzed legislative activ- Algeria 1% 6 79 ity. It noted that reforms were at the center of proposals, draft laws, or pilot projects in the Saudi Arabia 1% 6 79 key areas of budget coverage, credibility, preparation and debt management, but were not approved or fully implemented. Source: International Budget Partnership In terms of budget credibility, the assessment indicated that macroeconomic assumptions are not used to guide budget formulation, and the Ministry of Finance does not have a formal unit dedicated to the development of a macroeconomic framework. As a result, the budget preparation process does not set envelopes for line ministries based on macroeconomic perspectives or sectoral objectives. Further, budgets are prepared from the bottom up, with no consideration of multi-year planning and sustainability. It noted that this approach results in a high degree of uncertainty in the budget process and is at odds with fiscal efficiency and discipline. In terms of comprehensiveness and transparency, the World Bank noted that a fundamental weakness in Lebanon's PFM practices is the insufficient budget coverage and transparency. It said the budget excludes foreign financed projects, and a number of activities are included as an annex to the budget document but fall outside the reported budget and are not fully disclosed to Parliament when disbursed. It noted that the Ministry of Finance has started to expand the coverage of the budget to include foreign financed investment, as it drafted a budget law in 2007 allowing for the integration of the largest extra-budgetary entities such as the Council for Development & Reconstruction and the Higher Relief Council. However, it did not include the extra-budgetary expenditures of other large entities such as the National Social Security Fund or the Independent Municipal Fund. In addition, the draft law does not address the issue of incomplete reporting to Parliament on the 55 state-owned enterprises, especially that their financial situation has major implications for the country's fiscal position.
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