Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework Strategic Transport Study

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Transport for London Planning – Strategic Analysis Project: Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework Strategic Transport Study

January 2013

Name Role Author Paola Sammarco Project Lead Reviewer Chris Porter Project Manager Johanna Gibbons Project Manager Stefan Trinder Project Manager Approver Alison Cowie Team Leader Simon Nielson Head of Strategic Analysis

Contents

Executive Summary ...... 10

1. Introduction ...... 19

2. Context for the Transport Study ...... 20

3. Understanding the current situation ...... 29

4. Understanding the future situation ...... 55

5. Assessment of Interventions ...... 142

6. Conclusions ...... 180

Table of Figures

Figure Title 0-1 Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework – Transport Study Area 0-2 Current Transport Network in the COA 0-3 PTAL Maps (2006) and (2031) 2-1 Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework Boundary 2-2 Map of sites identified within the COA 3-1 South sub-region population change 3-2 South sub-region employment change 3-3 PTAL map (2006) 3-4 PTAL map (2031) 3-5 Current transport network in the COA 3-6 Trips by mode, by residents by region and borough, London residents 2006-9 (all day) 3-7 Sub-regional origin and destination of trips with an origin and destination in the south sub-region, London residents 2006-9 (all day) 3-8 Main mode of egress (onward travel) from East Croydon station (all day) 3-9 Main mode of egress (onward travel) from West Croydon station (all day) 3-10 Potentially cyclable trips in the south sub-region 3-11 National Rail and London Overground crowding in 2007 with MTS reference case 3-12 Overview of the London Overground network 3-13 London bus boarding and alighting – morning peak (2007) 3-14 Crowding on the Tramlink network (2007) 3-15 Average weekday delay in the London borough of Croydon in the AM Peak (2010-11) 3-16 Average weekday delay in the London borough of Croydon in the PM Peak (2010-11) 4-1 Actual flow in the base year (2009) in the AM Peak 4-2 Actual flow in the base year (2009) in the PM Peak 4-3 Traffic volume/capacity in the AM Peak, base year (2009) 4-4 Traffic volume/capacity in the PM Peak, base year (2009) 4-5 Total delay (pcu hrs) in the base year (2009) in the AM Peak 4-6 Total delay (pcu hrs) in the base year (2009) in the PM Peak 4

4-7 Actual Flow in the future year without COA development (2031) in the AM Peak 4-8 Actual Flow in the future year without COA development (2031) in the PM Peak 4-9 Flow difference between the base year (2009) and future year without COA development (2031) in the AM peak 4-10 Flow difference between the base year (2009) and future year without COA development (2031) in the PM peak 4-11 Volume/Capacity greater than 80% in the AM Peak, future year without COA development (2031) 4-12 Volume/Capacity greater than 80% in the PM Peak, future year without COA development (2031) 4-13 Volume/capacity difference between 2009 and future year without COA development 2031 in the AM Peak 4-14 Total delay (pcu hrs) in the future year without COA development 2031 in the AM Peak 4-15 Total delay (pcu hrs) in the future year without COA development 2031 in the PM Peak 4-16 Delay difference (pcu hrs) between the future year without COA development 2031 and the base year (2009) in the AM Peak 4-17 Delay difference (pcu hrs) between the future year without COA development 2031 and the base year (2009) in the AM Peak 4-18 Actual flow in scenario B 2031 in the AM Peak 4-19 Actual flow in scenario B 2031 in the AM Peak 4-20 Actual flow difference between scenario B 2031 and the future year without COA development 2031 in the AM Peak 4-21 Actual flow difference between scenario B 2031 and the future year without COA development 2031 in the PM Peak 4-22 Actual flow difference between scenario B 2031 and base year 2009 in the AM Peak 4-23 Actual flow difference between scenario B 2031 and base year 2009 in the PM Peak 4-24 Volume/capacity greater than 80% in scenario B in the AM Peak 4-25 Volume/capacity greater than 80% in scenario B in the PM Peak 4-26 Volume/capacity difference between scenario B and the future year without COA development (2031) in the AM Peak 4-27 Volume/capacity difference between scenario B and the future year without COA development (2031) in the PM Peak 4-28 Volume/capacity difference between scenario B and the base year 2009 in the AM Peak

4-29 Volume/capacity difference between scenario B and the base year 2009 in the PM Peak 4-30 Total delay (pcu hrs) in scenario B 2031 in the AM Peak 4-31 Total delay (pcu hrs) in scenario B 2031 in the PM Peak 4-32 Delay difference between scenario B 2031 and the base year 2009 in the AM Peak 4-33 Delay difference between scenario B 2031 and the base year 2009 in the PM Peak 4-34 Delay difference between scenario B 2031 and the future year without COA development 2031 in the AM Peak 4-35 Delay difference between scenario B 2031 and the future year without COA development 2031 in the PM Peak 4-36 A23 journey time analysis in the southbound direction in the AM Peak 4-37 A23 journey time analysis in the southbound direction in the PM Peak 4-38 A23 journey time analysis in the northbound direction in the AM Peak 4-39 A23 journey time analysis in the northbound direction in the PM Peak 4-40 A232 journey time analysis in the eastbound direction in the AM Peak 4-41 A232 journey time analysis in the eastbound direction in the PM Peak 4-42 A232 journey time analysis in the westbound direction in the AM Peak 4-43 A232 journey time analysis in the westbound direction in the PM Peak 4-44 A212 Wellesley Road journey time analysis in the southbound direction in the AM Peak 4-45 A212 Wellesley Road journey time analysis in the southbound direction in the PM Peak 4-46 A212 Wellesley Road journey time analysis in the northbound direction in the AM Peak 4-47 A212 Wellesley Road journey time analysis in the northbound direction in the PM Peak 4-48 Main highway impacts identifies in the analysis of the base year (2009), future year without COA development (2031) and scenario B (2031) 4-49 2007 AM Peak National Rail flow

4-50 2007 PM Peak National Rail flow 4-51 2007 crowding National Rail AM Peak 4-52 Tramlink flows base year (2007) AM Peak 4-53 Tramlink flows base year (2007) PM Peak 4-54 Bus flows base year (2007) AM Peak 4-55 Bus flows base year (2007) PM Peak 4-56 National Rail flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) AM Peak 4-57 National Rail flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) PM Peak 4-58 Future year without COA development (2031) National Rail crowding AM Peak 4-59 Tramlink flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) AM Peak 4-60 Tramlink flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) PM Peak 4-61 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – New Addington to Wimbledon 4-62 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Beckenham Junction to Beckenham Junction 4-63 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Elmers End to Elmers End 4-64 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Elmers End to Therapia Lane 4-65 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Wimbledon to New Addington 4-66 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Therapia Lane to Elmers End 4-67 Bus flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) AM Peak 4-68 Bus flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) PM Peak 4-69 National Rail flow change from future year without COA development (2031) to scenario B (2031) AM Peak 4-70 National Rail flow change from future year without COA development (2031) to scenario B (2031) PM Peak 4-71 Future year without COA development (2031) AM Peak National Rail crowding 4-72 Tramlink flow change from future year without COA development (2031) to scenario B (2031) AM Peak 4-73 Tramlink flow change from future year without COA development (2031) to scenario B (2031) PM Peak 4-74 Sensitivity test removing in vehicle crowding on Tramlink in the AM Peak in the future year without COA development (2031) 4-75 Sensitivity test removing in vehicle crowding on Tramlink in the PM Peak in the future year without COA development (2031) 4-76 Flow difference between future year without COA development 7

(2031) and scenario B (2031) in the AM Peak 4-77 Flow difference between future year without COA development (2031) and scenario B (2031) in the PM Peak 4-78 Potentially cyclable trips in the Croydon cluster 5-1 Flow difference between scenario B (2031) with the A23/A232 intervention and scenario B (2031) in the AM Peak 5-2 Flow difference between scenario B (2031) with the A23/A232 intervention and scenario B (2031) in the PM Peak 5-3 Flow difference between scenario B (2031) with the A23/A232 intervention and future year without COA development (2031) in the AM Peak 5-4 Flow difference between scenario B (2031) with the A23/A232 intervention and future year without COA development (2031) in the PM Peak 5-5 Volume/capacity differences between scenario B with the A23/A232 interventions and scenario B (2031) in the AM Peak 5-6 Volume/capacity differences between scenario B with the A23/A232 interventions and scenario B (2031) in the PM Peak 5-7 Volume/capacity differences between scenario B with the A23/A232 interventions and future year without COA development (2031) in the AM Peak 5-8 Volume/capacity differences between scenario B with the A23/A232 interventions and future year without COA development (2031) in the PM Peak 5-9 Delay difference between scenario B with the A23/A232 intervention and scenario B (2031) in the AM Peak 5-10 Delay difference between scenario B with the A23/A232 intervention and scenario B (2031) in the PM Peak 5-11 Delay difference between scenario B with the A23/A232 intervention and the future year without COA development in the AM Peak 5-12 Delay difference between scenario B with the A23/A232 intervention and the future year without COA development in the PM Peak 5-13 Public transport flow change between scenario B and scenario B (2031) with bus intervention in the AM Peak 5-14 Public transport flow change between scenario B and scenario B (2031) with bus intervention in the PM Peak 5-15 Public transport flow change between scenario B (2031) and scenario B (2031) with tram intervention in the AM Peak 5-16 Public transport flow change between scenario B (2031) and scenario B (2031) with tram intervention in the PM Peak 5-17 Public transport flow change between scenario B (2031) and scenario B (2031) with combined bus and tram intervention in the

AM Peak 5-18 Public transport flow change between scenario B (2031) and scenario B (2031) with combined bus and tram intervention in the PM Peak

Executive Summary

0. Executive Summary

This report presents the findings of the Croydon Opportunity Area Strategic Transport Study, undertaken by Transport for London (TfL) on behalf of the Greater London Authority (GLA) and the London Borough of Croydon (LBC). The study has been carried out in consultation with key stakeholders including the GLA, LBC and internal TfL stakeholders.

The Strategic Transport Study provides an evidence base for the Opportunity Area Planning Framework (OAPF) transport chapter. The study identifies a package of measures to support long term development and place making aspirations for the Croydon Opportunity Area (COA), by identifying the key transport challenges arising now and in the future with development. The Strategic Transport Study forms an annex to the OAPF and is produced by TfL Planning in consultation with the London Borough of Croydon, the Greater London Authority and wider TfL modal representatives.

0.1 The Transport Study The purpose of the Strategic Transport Study agreed by TfL, LBC and the GLA is to: Identify transport challenges and opportunities arising from the development scenarios; Outline a package of measures required to support the preferred development scenario; and Set out the next steps required to further develop interventions.

0.1.1 Development Proposals The London Plan identifies that London’s population will grow by over 15% between now and 2031. The London Plan assumptions are used to provide the background assumptions for elsewhere in London (outside of the COA). The preferred development scenario (scenario B) for the COA builds on this growth. Scenario B, as supported by the OAPF, was derived from applying agreed housing typologies and employment density ranges to key sites in the COA. Scenario B equates to 8,000 new jobs and 7,300 new homes. This broadly equates to a 20% increase in jobs and an 80% increase in population within the study area. Figure 0-1 shows the Croydon Opportunity Area Transport Study Area.

Figure 0-1: Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework – Transport Study Area

0.1.2 Methodology and Tools The strategic Transport Study utilised TfL’s recently developed South London Sub Regional suite of transport models. This includes the London Transportation Studies Model (LTS), South London Highway Assignment Model (SoLHAM), and Regional Railplan (RRP) for trip generation and distribution, highway assignment and public transport assignment respectively. Travel demand for the opportunity area as well as wider background growth was produced using the LTS model; Assignment of highway flows and impacts were derived using SoLHAM. Public transport flows and crowding levels were assessed using the RRP model.

The models used in this analysis have been validated to an acceptable level at the sub-regional level. Due to the relatively large scale of the models, it has been necessary to assess the validation of the model for the Croydon Opportunity Area and make necessary improvements. Detailed validation statistics for both SoLHAM and Regional Railplan are available upon request.

This study assesses the impact of the development and has tested a number of transport interventions on the highway and public transport network to support the preferred development scenario. Walking and cycling interventions have also been assessed. A number of further studies have been identified.

0.2 Current Situation The COA has a mix of transport infrastructure including parts of the Transport for London Road Network (TLRN) and local borough roads. At East Croydon Station National Rail services (Southern and Thameslink) serve central London termini (Victoria and London Bridge) and the south coast (Gatwick and Brighton). At West Croydon station, National Rail services serve London termini (Victoria and London Bridge) and the wider south sub-region as well as London Overground Services providing a direct connection to Highbury and Islington in north London via New Cross Gate, Canada Water and Dalston Junction. Tramlink serves both East and West Croydon stations, as well as 5 other town centre stops and provides connections to Wimbledon, New Addington, Elmers End and Beckenham Junction. The COA is served by an extensive bus network. The COA is also connected to the London Cycle Network routes to the North, South, East and West. A number of walking routes exist within the COA but these vary in terms of quality and coverage. The Transport Network within and in close proximity to the COA is shown in Figure 0-2.

Figure 0-2: Current Transport Network in the COA

There are a number of barriers to movement which cause severance and prevent ease of pedestrian and cyclist movement. The main barrier for movement is the highway network through the COA, particularly the A212 (Wellesley Road), a dual carriageway road through the centre of the COA. The A232 lies in an East to West direction across the south of the COA and similarly acts as a barrier to pedestrian movement with poor pedestrian crossing points.

Figure 0-3: PTAL Maps (2006) and (2031)

As shown in Figure 0-3, the majority of the COA has the highest Public Transport Accessibility Rating (PTAL) rating of PTAL6b. The 2031 PTAL map largely does not fully reveal the accessibility improvements arising from the funded and committed transport enhancements, such as longer trains and the London Overground service, as these provide much needed additional capacity on the existing network where accessibility is already high.

Crowding currently occurs on the radial services into Central London from East Croydon station in the AM Peak particularly on services to London Victoria. In addition services into East Croydon from the south are crowded, but as more people board northbound services at Croydon than alight, services towards central London become more crowded upon leaving Croydon. Tramlink also experiences crowding in both directions on the Wimbledon branch, as well as the Beckenham Junction and New Addington branches on services into Croydon. Bus services serving the COA show a high level of demand particularly on the corridors which are not served by Tramlink.

Croydon is well served by the local highway network and is easily accessible by car from local areas, but some roads, including key strategic links, are heavily congested, especially during peak hours. The A212 (Wellesley Road) is a dual carriageway road which runs north to south through the centre of the COA and is one of the main access points into the COA. The A23, although outside the Opportunity Area, is a key strategic route into London from the south.

Croydon is also connected to the Transport for London Road Network (TLRN). The A232 runs east-west across South London, connecting the A24 in Ewell with the A224 Orpington bypass. The road is in the southern section of COA intersecting with the A212 (Wellesley Road). The A232 is a key strategic route and provides a link to the A23 which is the strategic road route into central London to the north and south towards Gatwick Airport and Junction 7 of the M25. The A23 is severely congested due to large sections of the road being single carriageway and the large volume of traffic which it carries. This also restricts the access to Croydon town centre from the M25. There is high demand on the highway network within the COA and high vehicle flows on the highway network within the COA as well as the A23 and A232. There are a number of key areas and junctions within the COA, such as on the Wellesley Road and the A232 particularly at the Park Lane Gyratory that are currently operating at capacity in both the AM and PM Peaks.

0.3 Objectives for the Croydon Opportunity Area Transport Study and options for interventions required The key objectives of the Strategic Transport Study and the proposed measures to achieve them are as follows:

Build on strategic and local transport connections in the area by improving reliability and maintaining operating levels of existing services and networks

National Rail services from the COA provide important connections to central London and across the wider south London sub-region. The transport study identifies that there is crowding on Southern and Thameslink services into central London which pass through East Croydon Station. On the highway network, a key challenge that the transport study identifies is the need to maintain reliability on the local strategic road network for all users including bus passengers against increases in demand on a network already close to capacity in many areas, for example the A23.

Options for solutions

The transport study supports the measures identified by National Rail’s High Level Output Specification (HLOS) for train lengthening on Southern services and completion of the Thameslink scheme. No further interventions were suggested for National Rail as the forecast growth in the COA does not have a significant impact on National Rail demand.

The transport study identifies a number of junctions of concern both within the COA and on the strategically important A23 and A232, in particular, the junctions with the Epsom Road, Croydon Road and Ampere Way as well as key approaches to the Park Lane Gyratory. The strategic modelling undertaken for the study has identified the need for improvements to junctions on the A23 and A232. However, these require further investigation through more detailed scheme specific assessment and local modelling prior to being implemented.

Maximise accessibility to, from and within the COA and where possible focus additional network capacity to support development on public transport modes. Maximise Public Transport capacity to support preferred development scenario.

The transport study identifies that in the AM Peak, the modal share for trips to the COA made by public transport will increase from 34% currently to 39% in 2031 with the preferred development scenario. This is largely due to public transport improvements in the future year without COA development (2031) combined with the benefits of public transport and walk and cycle friendly land use in the COA. Local public transport services, in particular the bus network, are forecast to experience the greatest increases in passenger demand. Demand on Tramlink services is also

forecast to increase and the network will remain heavily crowded, especially on the approaches to the COA from Sandilands and on the Wimbledon branch in both directions. There are increases in demand on National Rail and Overground services, which tend to cater for longer distance journeys – often beyond the typical Croydon catchment area, though the growth in demand is forecast to be not as high as on local services in the vicinity of the COA.

Options for solutions

The Transport Study identifies interventions which increase bus and Tramlink capacity and improve accessibility to and from the COA in all directions. The transport study supports measures identified within the East and West Masterplans to improve station capacity and accessibility to and from the stations.

Improve walking and cycling use to, from and within the COA to maximise potential, including improving urban realm and reducing effects of severance of the highway network

Poor connectivity within the town centre and severance on approach routes are issues which have been identified and are considered to contribute to the low number of walk and cycling trips which are made to, from and within the COA.

Options for solutions

The transport study supports the implementation of the Legible London way-finding scheme which will improve way-finding within the COA and promote walking trips. The transport study supports the high level principles of the Wellesley Road Scheme which reduces the severance effect of the Wellesley Road by introducing additional at grade crossings. The Connected Croydon Programme will improve the urban realm within the COA which in turn will make walking and cycling more attractive.

The transport study supports travel planning measures for new and existing developments which will promote travel by cycle and by walking. The London Borough of Croydon has been identified as a “Biking Borough” and the transport study supports measures introduced under this programme which will promote cycling within, to and from the COA.

The transport study identifies the A23 and the A232 as key corridors which require interventions due to the congestion that occurs as a result of the growth forecast in the COA. It is recognised that these interventions should reduce the severance caused by the highway network.

0.4 Next Steps The Strategic Transport Study sets out recommendations to support the aspirations for growth within the COA. Further studies should be undertaken in order to gain a more detailed understanding of the transport requirements. These are detailed below:

Croydon Council and TfL should work jointly to develop a package of measures and conceptual designs for Wellesley Road scheme to fully achieve the strategic objectives of the OAPF. The transport study tested the provision of additional turning lanes at the Fiveways Junction, the provision of 2 lanes between Imperial Way and the Fiveways junction on the A23, the signalisation of the A23 Epsom Road Junction and signalisation of the Lombard Roundabout. It identified that improvements need to be made at these important junctions. However, the impacts of these schemes are relatively localised and therefore further localised modelling should be undertaken in order to progress these schemes and better understand the impacts of any changes.

The Transport Study identified that additional Tramlink capacity will be required through the COA to cater for demand created by background and COA growth. It is suggested that a detailed feasibility study is undertaken to understand the potential options for capacity enhancement.

Further parking studies have been undertaken for the OAPF. However, future more detailed parking studies need to consider a number of complex and inter- related issues and be based on a comprehensive evidence base of surveys of parking usage in the area. More detail is provided within Parking Appendix E.

Appendix D notes that the analysis conducted on highway trip lengths is based on modelled data. It recommends that further analysis should be undertaken based on observed data in order to more fully understand highway trip lengths to the COA. Funding and prioritisation of schemes will need to be discussed further in order to set out a clear delivery strategy to support the Mayor’s and the borough’s aspirations for regeneration and growth in the COA.

1. Introduction

This report documents the findings of the Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework Strategic Transport Study, undertaken by Transport for London (TfL) on behalf of the Greater London Authority (GLA) and the London Borough of Croydon (LBC). The study has been carried out in consultation with key stakeholders including the GLA, LBC and internal TfL stakeholders.

In 2009 the GLA and LBC agreed that a single strategic planning framework should be produced to set out the principles for growth and guide development within the Croydon Opportunity Area (COA). The Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework (OAPF) will provide strategic planning guidance for the Croydon Opportunity Area. It covers a wide scope of issues including transport and TfL was tasked with taking forward a Strategic Transport Study to inform the OAPF.

The Strategic Transport Study provides transport inputs and an evidence base for the OAPF transport chapter. The study identifies a package of measures to support long term development and place making aspirations for the COA, by identifying the key transport challenges arising now and in the future with development. The Strategic Transport Study forms an appendix to the OAPF and is produced by TfL Planning in consultation with the London Borough of Croydon, the Greater London Authority and wider TfL modal representatives.

1.1 Purpose of the document This document sets out the approach taken for the work and presents the key findings and conclusions to provide a transport evidence base for the Croydon OAPF. Further assessment will be required to define and develop the packages of measures as part of the regeneration of the area and as developers bring forward proposals for development within the COA.

1.2 Report Structure The report is structured as follows: . Chapter 2 describes the context for, and approach taken in the transport study . Chapter 3 summarises the current transport situation . Chapter 4 examines the expected future transport situation based on differing development scenarios. . Chapter 5 considers potential solutions to meet the additional demands put on the transport network by development growth . Chapter 6 gives the study conclusions

2. Context for the Transport Study

The purpose of the Strategic Transport Study agreed by TfL, LBC and the GLA is to: Identify transport challenges and opportunities arising from the development scenarios; Outline a package of measures required to support the preferred development scenario; and Set out the next steps required to further develop interventions.

2.1 Scope of the OAPF: Policy Context, Methodology Objectives

2.1.1 Policy Context The Strategic Transport Study reflects the policy context of the London Plan (2010), Mayor’s Transport Strategy (2010), South sub-regional transport plan (2010), South London sub-regional plan addendum (2012) and LBC’s emerging Local Development Framework and Core Strategy. The study also reflects the latest position with the LBC Local Implementation Plan (LIP). There are five Masterplan areas within the COA. The Masterplan documents are in different stages of drafting and have been reflected where appropriate. At present, East, West and Mid Croydon Masterplan’s have been adopted and published.

The timescale of the study assume an end date of 2031, which is consistent with the London Plan. The boundary of the COA used is shown in Figure 2-1. This was set by the GLA and LBC for the planning framework and focuses on Croydon Town Centre and as well as the Wandle Park area.

Figure 2-1: Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework Boundary

2.1.2 Strategic Transport Study methodology

The Strategic Transport Study has been undertaken as a series of steps: Identify the objectives for the study area using the MTS goals, the development principles set out in the OAPF and other local objectives identified by stakeholders.

Set out the transport problems, issues and opportunities through analysis of current and future conditions and different growth scenarios.

Map the problems, issues and opportunities to the objectives to cross check, focus and align.

Develop strategic transport options that help meet the objectives and identify the types of transport interventions needed to support each of the development scenarios.

Qualitatively assess how the identified strategic options help to achieve the objectives to create a short list of options for each development scenario.

Carry out a quantitative assessment of the short listed options on the highway and public transport networks using TfL’s suite of sub-regional transport models.

Complete a high level assessment of the interventions relating to feasibility, design and funding using the Strategic Assessment Framework (SAF).

Set out next steps for further development of the transport measures and any remaining issues.

Existing data sources were used to provide an understanding of the current transport situation in the COA. TfL’s sub-regional suite of models for the south London sub- region were used as a tool to assess the impact of development in future year scenarios.

TfL’s Strategic Assessment Framework (SAF) was used to understand the broad impacts of each scenario against the objectives from the Mayor’s Transport Strategy and the Opportunity Area Planning Framework. The SAF considers broad deliverability issues in terms of timescales, design and cost (i.e. low, medium, high) at a high level. The assessment framework provides a means of establishing the differences between the scenarios being considered in meeting the required objectives. Further detail on the SAF can be found in the technical Appendix G.

2.1.3 Identifying transport objectives for the study

The Transport Study objectives have been identified using the MTS goals, development principles of the OAPF and other local objectives identified by stakeholders. Policy documents such as the Mayor’s Transport Strategy (2010), the South London sub-regional transport plan (2010, and 2012 addendum) and the Masterplan’s for East and West Croydon have also been used to gain a local perspective of challenges in and around the COA.

Transport Study Objectives

The Strategic Transport Study has identified the following high level transport objectives:

Build on strategic and local connections in the area by improving reliability and maintaining operating levels of existing services and networks; Maximise accessibility to, from and within the COA and where possible focus additional network capacity to support development on public transport modes; Maximise public transport capacity to enable development; and Improve walking and cycling use to, from and within the COA to maximise potential, including improving urban realm and reducing the effects of severance on the highway network.

2.2 Modelling Approach The Strategic Transport Study used a four stage modelling process to generate trip generation, mode split, trip distribution and assignment outputs. This was done using the recently developed south London sub-regional suite of transport models. This includes TfL’s London Transportation Studies Model (LTS), South London Highway Assignment Model (SoLHAM), and Regional Railplan (RRP) for demand, highway and public transport assignment modelling respectively. Demand for the modelled area was generated by the development scenarios and the reference cases were produced using LTS as a basis; Assignment of traffic flows and impacts were derived using SoLHAM. Public transport flows and crowding were assessed using the RRP model for weekday AM and PM peak periods.

The modelling work was taken forward in a series of stages. These were as follows:

Stage One - Model review and developing the analytical plan;

This stage developed an understanding of the key issues that needed to be considered. As a result, the suite of forecasting and assignment tools and methods to be used for the Strategic Transport Study were identified. This stage also included appraising the ‘fitness for purpose’ of the south London sub-regional suite of models for the study and defined further work to be done in terms of improved validation of the models in the local area

Stage Two - Development scenario assumptions

The proposed development scenarios (Scenarios D and B) were initially assessed using the base year highway and public transport assignment models. A further two development scenarios A and C were proposed but not tested as the pattern of impact was similar between Scenarios D and B. Therefore no further scenario testing was deemed necessary, as it was felt that the outputs could be interpolated from existing model runs if necessary. This stage also identified the key transport issues given the quantum of and land use mixes of the development and the policy interventions put forward within the Croydon OAPF. The outcomes from this stage of the transport modelling are outlined in Chapter’s 3 and 4.

Stage Three - Defining Development and Transport Scenarios:

This stage involved the definition of packages of transport interventions to mitigate against the transport issues identified as a result of the development in preferred growth scenario B. The outcomes from this stage of the transport modelling are outlined in Chapter 5.

2.2.1 Modelling Assumptions

Forecasting and Assessment: London-wide travel demand, mode share and trip distribution was taken from the LTS model which assumes population and employment growth to 2031. This is consistent with the London Plan (2011) at a borough level. Assignment is carried out using SoLHAM and RRP. SoLHAM covers the seven boroughs within south London (Richmond, Wandsworth, Kingston, Merton, Sutton, Croydon and Bromley) and areas bordering south London. RRP covers the whole of London. The base year is 2007 (for public transport) and 2009 (for highway), and the forecast year is 2031. Reference cases have been produced for three weekday time periods for highway: morning peak (07.00-10.00), interpeak (10.00-16.00) and evening peak (16.00-19.00), and the 3 hour morning (07:00-10:00) and evening (16:00-19:00) weekday peaks for public transport.

Population and Employment Assumptions

LTS provides a reference case based on the overall population and employment growth across London at borough level. The borough level assumptions are derived from agreed GLA projections and then distributed across the model zones based on an understanding of the likely growth across the boroughs, including Opportunity Areas. The growth outside of London in the LTS model uses TEMPRO forecasts at a district level. This shows the higher levels of growth on the main development corridors of London-Luton-Bedford, London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough, Thames Gateway, Wandle Valley and Western Wedge.

Transport Assumptions

The LTS, SoLHAM and RRP models have a reference case based on only funded and committed schemes as described in the Mayor’s Transport Strategy (2010). Therefore the reference case does not take into account the impact of the comprehensive spending review in autumn 2010 which, although does not have a significant impact on the COA, has wider implications across London.

The key transport schemes assumed in the modelling which impacts on the Croydon Opportunity Area are:

London Overground – Programme of expansion and enhancement of services, including new orbital services through inner London and new longer trains by 2012 (Croydon related elements of which have been completed); Crossrail – The provision of an East to West rail service; Thameslink – Twelve-car maximum capability and 24 trains per hour through the core area; Southern Trains – Ten-car inner capability;

Tramlink – Additional six trams on Croydon Tramlink which was completed in 2012.

Bus service provision is assumed to remain the same as current service levels. The level of available parking within the COA is assumed to remain consistent with current levels. In all scenario tests, forecast car trips to and from the COA have been reviewed to ensure that they do not exceed the level of available car parking.

2.2.2 Model Validation and Calibration

The models used in this analysis well at a sub-regional level. Due to the relatively large scale of the models, it has been necessary to assess the validation of the model for the Croydon Opportunity Area and make necessary improvements. It is important to understand the validation of both the highway and public transport models for the Croydon area, so that the outputs can be analysed effectively and robust conclusions can be reached.

South London Highway Assignment Model (SoLHAM)

The highway model underwent a local model validation exercise with changes being made to improve model performance in the Croydon OAPF area. The performance of key junctions and routes was checked against additional count data and network coding was improved. Overall journey time and count validation is good. Detailed validation statistics are available upon request.

Assumptions in the forecast years

There are assumed to be no changes to the highway network between the base year and the forecast years in the COA or surrounding areas.

Regional Railplan (RRP)

Regional Railplan has been developed to enable analysis at a more detailed level than Strategic Railplan. The key differences between the two models are a more detailed zoning system, a comprehensive walk network based on the Ordnance Survey Integrated Transport Network (ITN) and more detailed bus speeds taken from the Transport for London iBus system.

Regional Railplan validates well at a sub-regional level. The Regional Railplan Validation Report is available on request.

2.3 Development Scenarios The GLA and the LBC initially set out four potential development scenarios for the COA.

The population and job estimates form the development components to feed into the LTS population and employment forecasts. There are six Croydon LTS Scenarios: The current year reference case; The ‘future year without COA development (2031)’– includes GLA future year development data across the modelled area except for the COA where this is removed to allow a comparison with and without development Scenario A – which has 4,000 additional homes and 8,000 additional jobs in the COA Scenario B – which has 7,300 additional homes and 8,000 additional jobs in the COA Scenario C – which has 10,000 additional homes and 1,000 additional jobs in the COA Scenario D – which has 12,000 additional homes and 32,000 additional jobs in the COA

The reference case estimate is controlled to 2007 GLA Borough estimates of additional population, and economic activity. Development is deducted from this to make a ‘Future year without COA development’ case.

Each scenario assumes different levels of growth and includes figures (floorspace, number of units, employees) for land uses including; residential; office; retail; leisure; hotel; college/education; library and Fairfield Halls. The four development scenarios can loosely be described as:

Scenario A: medium economic growth and low housing growth Scenario B: medium economic growth and medium housing growth Scenario C: low economic growth and high housing growth Scenario D: high economic growth and high housing growth

The overall growth options for each of the four scenarios are shown in Table 2-1. These scenarios were used as the growth assumptions for the Croydon study area.

Table 2-1: Overall growth figures for each of development in the scenarios

Scenario Sector A B C D Residential 4,000 7,300 10,000 12,000

Jobs 8,000 8,000 1,000 32,000

Office 66,000sqm 22,000sqm 0% 393,050sqm (+15% (+5% (+60% excluding excluding excluding vacant) vacant) vacant)

Retail 70,000sqm 55,000sqm 0 100,000sqm (+35%) (+28%) (+50%) Leisure 0 10,000sqm 10,000sqm 20,000sqm

School 1 primary 2 primary 3 primary 4 primary school schools schools schools

College 0 15,000sqm 15,000sqm 30,000sqm (+35%) (+35%) (+70%) Hotel 100% growth 50% growth on 25% growth on 150% growth on 1,030 1,030 rooms 1,030 rooms on 1,030 rooms rooms Fairfield Hall 0 5,000sqm 5,000sqm 10,000sqm

The preferred development scenario (Scenario B) was derived by applying agreed housing typologies and employment density ranges to key sites in the COA. This was in response to an understanding of the development context, a review of borough planning policies and an overview of stakeholder aspirations for the area including a review of existing masterplans. For the purpose of the study, Scenarios B and D were tested. As the preferred development scenario all outputs reported in the main body of this report refer to Scenario B. Scenario D was considered as the highest impact test and the results from the Scenario D analysis can be found in Appendix C. The testing of scenario B broadly indicated that the pattern of impact was broadly similar to Scenario D albeit at a lesser degree. As a result, Scenarios A and C were not tested as Scenario B was deemed the preferred growth scenario. The individual sites within the study are shown in Figure 2-2.

Figure 2-2: Map of sites identified within the COA

3. Understanding the current situation

This chapter summarises the current situation within the COA. It takes account of a number of existing current documents and statistics to present a broad overview of the transport network within the COA and the London Borough of Croydon (LBC).

3.1 Population and employment growth context There is significant population growth within the LBC up to 2031 compared to other south London sub-regional boroughs. There is a forecasted 15% increase in population between 2006 and 2031. The majority of this growth is concentrated within the COA. Similarly, employment growth is forecast to increase by 3%. The employment growth forecast within the LBC is below the average forecast across the south sub-regional boroughs. However, the employment growth that is anticipated in the LBC will be focussed in the COA.

Figure 3-1: South sub-region population change

Figure 3-2: South sub-region employment change

3.2 Public Transport Accessibility Level (PTAL) Public Transport Accessibility Level (PTALs) give an indication of the relative density of the public transport network at a specific location. It effectively measures the combination of the distance to public transport services from a given point and the frequency of services. The results are expressed on a scale of 1 to 6. This includes sub-divisions 1a, 1b, 6a and 6b, where 1a indicates extremely poor accessibility to the location by public transport and 6b indicates excellent access. It should be noted that PTALs do not measure service capacity or physical accessibility for those with disabilities. Figures 3-3 and 3-4 show the change in PTAL from 2006 to 2031.

The majority of the COA has the highest rating PTAL6b. Despite the investment in the transport network in and around the Croydon COA, the 2031 map shows relatively little change from 2006. This is due to the funded and committed transport enhancements, such as longer trains and the London Overground service being generally confined to the existing network where access is already high.

Figure 3-3: PTAL map (2006)

Figure 3-4: PTAL map (2031)

3.3 Transport facilities and service patterns The COA has a mix of transport infrastructure, including parts of the Transport for London Road Network (TLRN); local borough roads; National Rail stations with connections to central London termini; London Overground; London Tramlink; and a large number of bus routes. The East London Line (part of the London Overground network) was extended to West Croydon Station and began operating in June 2010. This provides a direct connection between the COA and Highbury and Islington in north London via New Cross Gate, Canada Water and Dalston Junction. Designated walking and cycling routes also exist, although they vary in terms of quality and coverage. There are a number of barriers to movement which cause severance and prevent ease of pedestrian and cyclist movement. The main barrier for movement is the highway network through the COA. Further detail on the existing transport network, in particular specific modes, can be found throughout this chapter. The coverage of the transport network can be found in Figure 3-5.

Figure 3-5: Current transport network in the COA

3.4 Travel demand and service

3.4.1 Travel patterns The data in this section is taken from the London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS). It has not been possible to complete the LTDS analysis for the Croydon Opportunity Area itself. This is due to the sample size for the COA being too small and as a result the data is not reliable. Therefore, the analysis below considers LBC as a whole.

Table 3-1: Trips and travel distance, totals and per person per day, by 1 residents of the region and Borough2

Trips and travel distance, totals and per person per day, by residents of the region and borough, London residents 2006-9 Area Population Trips per day Total distance Trips per Total distance aged 5 and (000s) travelled per person per travelled per over (000s) day (000km) day person per day (km) South 1,512 4,219 26,760 2.8 17.7 Bromley 279 833 5,748 3 20.6 Croydon 309 768 4,611 2.5 14.9 Kingston 141 463 2,666 3.3 18.9 Merton 180 523 3,322 2.9 18.5 Richmond 169 522 3,252 3.1 19.3 Sutton 170 439 2,841 2.6 16.7 Wandsworth 263 672 4,320 2.6 16.4 Greater London 6,971 17,881 104,137 2.6 14.9 Source: LTDS, TfL Planning

Table 3-1 shows that the residents of LBC have the lowest trip rates per person per day when compared to the rest of the south sub-region boroughs. Croydon residents also travel less distance per person per day than the rest of the south sub-region boroughs. This could be due to the employment opportunities available within the borough. The total distance travelled by Croydon residents per day is greater than other boroughs in the south sub-region. This is due to Croydon having the largest population of all boroughs in the sub-region.

The travel patterns of future residents in the COA could be very different from the typical travel patterns of current borough residents. Much of the borough of Croydon is suburban in nature, which has a strong influence over current „typical‟ travel patterns. The residents of new housing in COA will have public transport, goods, services and employment opportunities located much closer to home than is typical of current borough residents. As a result, trip distances and car usage would be expected to be lower than current borough averages and walking, cycling and public transport mode shares higher.

1 London residents – residents of Greater London and the surrounding area within the M25 2 Source: London Travel Demand Survey 2006/09 - Total distance travelled refers to straight line „crow fly‟ distance.

3.4.2 Mode shares of travel Figure 3-6 shows the mode share of trips made by residents of LBC and the south sub-region. The majority of Croydon residents travel by car/motorcycle, which although is higher than the south sub-regional average, does reflect outer London trends. Croydon has a higher bus/tram mode share than the other south sub-regional boroughs. This is due to the extensive bus and tram network in LBC.

Figure 3-6: Trips by mode, by residents by region and borough, London residents3 2006-9 (All day)

Source: LTDS, TfL Planning

Travel to, from and within the south sub-region by all modes

In the south sub-region, two thirds of trips made by residents to, from or within the sub-region have both an origin and destination in the south sub-region. Figure 3-7 shows the relationship between the south sub-region and other regions, showing the proportion of trips with an origin or destination in south, and an origin or destination elsewhere. The region has a stronger relationship with the adjacent boroughs and with outside Greater London than with the North sub-region. As with all regions, a significant proportion of trips (14%) are made to and from the central sub-region. Chapter 4 will outline outputs from the modelling which provides an estimate of the trips from outside the GLA into the Croydon COA.

3 London residents – residents of Greater London and the surrounding area within the M25 35

Figure: 3-7: Sub-regional origin and destination of trips with an origin or destination in the South sub-region, London residents4 2006/9 (All day)

Source: LTDS, TfL Planning

2.9 million trips are made wholly within the South sub-region, around 600,000 trips are made travelling from the South to the other sub-regions and destinations outside of Greater London, and a similar number from elsewhere to the South sub-region.

Main mode of onward travel from East and West Croydon Stations

Figures 3-8 and 3-9 show the main modes of onward travel from East and West Croydon Stations across all time periods (AM, Inter and PM Peaks). This data is taken from the National Rail Travel Survey. It can be seen that the majority of passengers exiting from East and West Croydon Stations travelled by foot to their next destination. A higher proportion of passengers travel by tram from East Croydon Station than West Croydon Station but this could be a reflection of the service frequency at East Croydon Station, as well as the options for travelling to tram stops on the one way loop. The proportion of passengers travelling by bus from the stations is similar as both stations have an extensive bus network located in close vicinity. At both stations, only a small proportion of passengers travel by car (parked in centre) from the station.

4 London residents – residents of Greater London and the surrounding area within the M25 36

Figure 3-8: Main mode of egress (onward travel) from East Croydon Station (all day)

Source: National Rail Transport Survey (2008)

Figure 3-9: Main mode of egress (onward travel) from West Croydon Station (all day)

Source: National Rail Travel Survey (2008)

Journey Purpose for trips with a destination at East Croydon and West Croydon Station

Tables 3-2 and 3-3 show the journey purpose for trips to East and West Croydon Stations in all time periods and across the whole day (AM, Interpeak and PM Peaks). In the AM Peak the large majority of trips arriving at East and West Croydon have a destination at their normal workplace whereas in the PM Peak the large majority of trips are to home. In the Interpeak, the largest proportion of trips to West Croydon are for shopping purposes. This is due to its proximity to Croydon‟s retail centre.

Table 3-2: Journey purposes for trips with a destination at East Croydon Station (all day, AM, Inter and PM Peak)

Journey Purpose to East Croydon Station, National Rail Travel Survey (2008) All Day AM Peak Interpeak PM Peak Normal Workplace 26% 66% 7% 2% Home 35% 3% 12% 71% To/From Other Workplace 13% 13% 22% 10% Leisure, Sport, Entertainment 8% 4% 15% 6% Shopping 5% 3% 17% 2% Education 7% 7% 14% 6% Personal Business 3% 3% 7% 1% Other 3% 2% 6% 2%

Source: National Rail Travel Survey (2008)

Table 3-3: Journey purposes for trips with a destination at West Croydon Station (All Day, AM Peak, Interpeak, PM Peak)

Journey Purpose to West Croydon Station, National Rail Travel Survey (2008) All Day AM Peak Interpeak PM Peak Normal Workplace 34% 70% 9% 3% Home 19% 3% 3% 62% To/From Other Workplace 8% 7% 5% 13% Leisure, Sport, Entertainment 5% 1% 11% 3% Shopping 20% 12% 48% 7% Education 6% 3% 12% 4% Personal Business 4% 4% 5% 3% Other 4% 1% 7% 5%

Source: National Rail Travel Survey (2008)

3.5 Cycling and Walking 3.5.1 Cycling The COA is connected to the London Cycle Network via routes to the North, South, East and West. In order to realise borough and Mayoral ambitions to increase levels of cycling it is essential that the needs of cyclists are fully considered in the formulation of development plans. Croydon is a “Biking Borough” and has been awarded £450,000 from the Mayor of London to develop a local strategy to increase cycling opportunities and improve facilities. LBC has pledged to put cycling at the heart of its local transport delivery plans. The funding will support a range of initiatives, including improved cycle parking at East Croydon Station; a three-year programme of community-led cycle rides to help get more people cycling; and advice on safe cycling near heavy goods vehicles.

Currently, 1% of trips made within LBC on an average day are cycled5. The modelling has indicated that between 2007 and 2031, there will be an increase in the proportion of walk or cycle trips to, from and within the COA. The greatest forecasted increase in walk/cycle mode share is within the COA, from 44% in 2007 to 50% in 2031. Modal split is discussed in greater detail in Chapter 4 and in Appendix B. Figure 3-10 highlights the potential of cyclable trips within the south sub-regional. Cycling potential in Croydon town centre and surrounding area6 is high, with approximately 119,000 trips being made daily by car and public transport which could be switched to cycle. The cycling and urban realm improvements are part of the „Connected Croydon‟ programme which will help Croydon‟s cycling potential to be realised, and contribute to the 5% London-wide cycling mode share target set in the MTS. However, these will need to be supplemented by additional infrastructure improvements for cycling and marketing campaigns to maximise use of the cycling.

Figure 3-10: Potentially cyclable trips in the south sub-region

Source: TfL Planning

5 Travel in London, Report 4 (2012) Londoner’s Trips by borough of origin, trips per day and shares by main mode, average day (seven day week) 2008/9 to 2010/11 6 The “Croydon Cluster” covers approx 22 sqkm See Cycling Cluster Analysis Factsheet no2. 39

3.5.2 Walking In the south sub-region, around 1.23 million walk trips are made on average each day which either have an origin or destination in the south sub-region (26% of all trips). The walking mode share for LBC is lower than for London as a whole, where 31% of trips are made on foot, but is higher than the sub-regional average.

Given the opportunities for walking and cycling and the size, characteristics and level of investment in the area, walking and cycling represent one of the biggest opportunities to promote sustainable modes.

3.6 Public Transport

3.6.1 National Rail The COA has two National Rail stations (East and West Croydon) which are served by Southern Railway, Thameslink, London Overground, Tramlink and several bus routes. These provide services to wide areas across the south London sub-region and further afield. South Croydon Station is located just outside the COA and is served by Southern. Both East and West Croydon station areas have adopted Masterplans which set out interventions to improve access provisions as well as other specific proposals.

East Croydon Station is located in Travelcard Zone 5. East Croydon is the busiest railway station for entries and exits in London outside central London termini. In 2010/11, there were approximately 20.1 million entries and exits at East Croydon Station, and approximately 7.1 million passengers interchanging between rail services within the station7 . The station is served by Southern and Thameslink (First Capital Connect TOC) services, with frequent non-stop services to key destinations including London Victoria, London Bridge and Gatwick Airport. Other destinations served by Southern include East and West Sussex, Surrey, and Brighton and Hove, as well as many suburban stations in south London. Thameslink services provide connections to Brighton, Redhill, Bedford, Blackfriars, St Pancras International, Luton and Luton Airport, which means East Croydon Station has direct connections to two airports, as well as stations in close vicinity to the City of London. The station is step free from street to platform (although arrangements are subject to proposals for improvement) and well connected to both the tram and bus networks, with a tram stop located outside the main forecourt and a bus station in close vicinity. These provide passengers the opportunity to interchange from National Rail to other modes of transport.

West Croydon Station is located in Travelcard Zone 5 and is the smaller of the two stations located within the COA. In 2010/11, there were approximately 3.3 million entries and exits at West Croydon Station, with approximately 455,000 journeys

7 2010-11 station usage report and data, http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/server/show/nav.1529 40

involving interchange8. The station is served by Southern and London Overground services, primarily with suburban services calling at every station. The main destinations from the station include London Victoria, London Bridge, Sutton, Dalston Junction and Epsom. The station is step free from street to platform (although access arrangements are subject to proposals for improvement) and is connected to both the tram and bus network. The tram stop is located next to the station but is not directly accessible from the rail platforms. The bus station is a hub for London Bus services providing connections to Heathrow Airport and services to Surrey.

As part of National Rail‟s High Level Output Specification (HLOS), Southern trains will be lengthened to 10 cars on some services which will increase capacity on train routes into and out of central London through Croydon. The south London sub- region is particularly dependent on the National Rail network for links into central London, as there is limited access to the Underground network. Figure 3-11 shows London Overground and National Rail crowding in 2007 (MTS reference case). It can be seen that crowding into London Victoria from East Croydon is a significant problem. It should be noted that Figure 3-11 does not include London Overground services from West Croydon which provides links to the City fringes and indirectly the Docklands and therefore could contribute to reduced crowding on London Bridge services.

8 2010-11 station usage report and data, http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/server/show/nav.1529 41

Figure 3-11: National Rail and London Overground crowding in 2007 with MTS reference case (Source: TfL Planning)

3.6.2 London Overground The East London Line was extended to West Croydon Station and began operating in June 2010. This provides a direct connection, with 4 trains per hour operating in the AM Peak, between West Croydon and Highbury and Islington in north London, via Canada Water and New Cross Gate. London Overground's new extension across south London between Surrey Quays and Clapham Junction station opened in December 2012 and is the final link in the London Overground orbital network around the capital. Figure 3-12 is an overview map of the London Overground network.

Figure 3-12: Overview of the London Overground Network (Source: TfL)

3.6.3 Bus network Both East and West Croydon Stations are served by several bus routes and in general the COA is very well served by the bus network.

The COA is a hub with numerous bus routes providing a comprehensive service to the local catchment area. Several bus routes serve East and West Croydon Station and provide connections to National Rail and Tramlink services. Figure 3-13 shows bus boarding and alighting in the AM Peak. Bus usage is high in Metropolitan town centres and where there is interchange with rail services. Croydon town centre has a high demand for bus services.

Figure 3-13: London bus boarding and alighting – Morning Peak (2007)

Source: TfL London Buses

East and West Croydon bus stations have limitations in providing increased bus services due to the conflicting land use pressures around the stations. Both require an increased level of stop and standing space in order to meet current demand and this problem is expected to worsen as demand increases. Interchange at both stations between rail, tram and buses could be improved and schemes are being actively pursued at both locations to enable improvements to be made.

3.6.4 Tramlink Tramlink serves both East and West Croydon Stations, as well as 5 other town centre stops. Tramlink is operated by Transport for London and provides connections to Wimbledon, New Addington, Elmers End and Beckenham Junction from the COA. 27 million trips are made annually on the Tramlink network, and this figure is forecast to increase to 29 million by 2016. Crowding occurs in both directions, between Wimbledon and Croydon in the AM Peak, and on the eastern approaches to Croydon town centre. Tramlink operates at capacity at certain times of the day and increased number of vehicles and improvements to track capacity is required to support growth in Croydon. Table 3-4 shows the tram frequencies in the AM Peak (Mon-Fri).

Table 3-4: Tram Frequencies in the AM Peak (Mon-Fri) (Source: TfL)

From To Frequency East Croydon New Addington Every 7/8 minutes East Croydon Beckenham Junction Every 12 minutes East Croydon Elmers End Every 12 minutes East Croydon Wimbledon Every 7/8 minutes East Croydon West Croydon Every 6 minutes West Croydon New Addington Every 7/8 minutes West Croydon Beckenham Junction Every 12 minutes West Croydon Elmers End Every 12 minutes

Crowding on the Tramlink network is shown in Figure 3-14. The black and red sections on the map indicate the most crowded parts of the network. There is severe crowding on the Wimbledon branch, especially on journeys towards Wimbledon, indicating that passengers are standing for extended periods of time. There are also standing passengers on the Beckenham Junction and New Addington branches towards Croydon during the AM Peak. Severe overcrowding can also be seen between Addiscombe and Sandilands, with 3 passengers standing per square metre of standing space. The West Croydon section of the Croydon loop appears to be the least crowded; however, as the stops are so close together in Croydon town centre, several stops can fall within the same model zone, so crowding is likely to be underestimated on the loop.

Figure 3-14: Crowding on the Tramlink network (2007) (Source: TfL Planning)

The South sub-regional transport plan identified a number of corridors where there is a justification for some form of public transport improvement and where trams could potentially play a role. TfL have been drafting a Tramlink Strategy which looks at these corridors in more detail and prioritises extensions to Crystal Palace, Wimbledon to Crystal Palace and Beckenham Junction to Bromley. A particular challenge for future tram extensions is planning of the alignments and potential impact on other road users and traffic flow. A significant amount of feasibility work has already been carried out on the potential Crystal Palace extension, TfL are now carrying out a feasibility study into the Sutton extension that will take account of highway impacts as well as engineering issues. This is with the aim of to refreshing the business case and ensuring that both projects are at a comparable level of project development.

The Mayor of London and the Boroughs are supportive of the above Tram schemes, but there is no funding identified in the current TfL Business Plan to build either of these extensions at present and it is unlikely that public funds will be made available in the current financial climate. Any new transport infrastructure needs to demonstrate that it can facilitate growth in terms of jobs, homes or other forms of development. To this end TfL are carrying out a planning assessment in south London to determine whether there is sufficient development potential to deliver the level of growth required to justify the extensions proposed. This will also investigate innovative funding solutions for the potential extensions.

In March 2011, a joint funded scheme between TfL and LBC was agreed which enabled TfL to lease up to 10 new trams. These new trams enhance the existing Tramlink service and ease crowding by providing an additional “Line 4” service, which will consist of 6 trams per hour between Elmers End and Therapia Lane. It will be delivered by 2014.

3.6.5 Public Transport reliability As reported within Travel in London Report 5, service provision and reliability on Croydon Tramlink has improved since 2001/02 (although there was a small decline in 2011/12). In 2001/02, 2.4 million tram-kilometres operated at 99.1 per cent level of reliability. In 2011/12, 2.7 million tram kilometres operated at 98.9 per cent level of reliability. Despite the small decline Tramlink has maintained a very high level of reliability.

High frequency bus routes have two measures of reliability – actual and excess waiting time9. For both measures, bus reliability has improved since 2001/2, from 6.8 minutes (2001/2) to 5.4 minutes (2011/12) for actual waiting time and excess bus waiting times have halved since 2001/2 from 2.2 minutes to 1.0 minutes. On lower frequency routes, the percentage of bus services run on time has improved since

9 Excess waiting times – the time that people have to wait over and above what would be expected were the service to run exactly to schedule 48

2001/2 from 68% of services running on time in 2001/2 to 83% running on time in 2011/12. Overall this indicates that reliability on public transport has steadily improved.

3.6.6 Summary of Public Transport Croydon is well served by public transport. Services to, from and through the COA currently experience high demand. All buses serving the COA currently experience high flows into and out of the COA at all time periods, particularly in the morning and evening peaks. Tramlink is very crowded on all approaches to Croydon, and on the Wimbledon branch. National Rail services are crowded into London Bridge and Victoria in the morning peak, and in the reverse direction in the evening peak.

3.7 Highway Croydon is well served by road, by comparison to other parts of London, and is easily accessible by car. The A212 (Wellesley Road) is a dual carriageway road which runs north to south through the centre of the COA. It causes severance through the centre of Croydon with very few at-grade pedestrian or cycle crossings. It is one of the main access roads to the COA.

The A232, part of the Transport for London Road Network (TLRN), runs east-west across south London connecting the A24 in Ewell with the A224 Orpington bypass. The road is in the southern section of COA intersecting with the A212 (Wellesley Road). The A232 provides a link to the A23, which is the strategic road link into central London to the north, and south towards Gatwick Airport and Junction 7 of the M25. The A232 causes severance of the COA and acts as a barrier to trips particular via walking and cycling.

The A23, although outside the COA, is a key strategic route into London from the south. The A23 runs parallel to the COA and provides important links into the COA particularly at the Fiveways Junction (linking to the A232) and the Lombard Roundabout ( linking with the A236). The road is used heavily by strategic traffic as well as local traffic accessing the business units on the Purley Way. There are high flows on the A23 at all time periods and several key junction experience delay, in particular the Fiveways junctions and the Ampere Way junction. Numerous bus routes cross the A23 and provide links to the COA.

Some key areas of the road network operate in excess of designed capacity. Traffic delay, from Trafficmaster data, in the area is captured in Figures 3-15 and 3-16. The broader Croydon road network also caters for significant volumes of through traffic, particularly on the A23 and A232 corridors. Access to the motorway network is of particular importance, with frequent congestion along the A23 corridor – the primary link from Croydon to the trunk road network. In a similar manner to much of London, the management of Croydon‟s road network requires the complex balancing of a 49

number of competing demands. Particular challenges include protecting bus and tram services from delay, improving the attractiveness and safety of walking and cycling and ensuring reliable journey times for private vehicle journeys.

Trafficmaster

Trafficmaster data presents up-to-date data on average delay on the highway network.

The main delay hotspots identified by the Trafficmaster data, in both the AM and PM peak are:

Approaches to the Fiveways Junction;

A23 Thornton Road in the northbound direction from the Lombard Roundabout;

A236 Mitcham Road in the southbound direction from the Lombard Roundabout;

Area around West Croydon Station;

Wellesley Road in the northbound direction from the Park Lane Gyratory;

Katharine Street;

Area in the south of the COA – A212 Park Lane, Lower Coombe Street, Coombe Road; and

A212 Coombe Road.

The plots indicated that the same areas tend to be congested in both peak periods, however the highway network appears more congested overall in the PM Peak.

Figure 3-15: Average weekday delay in the London borough of Croydon in the AM Peak (2010-11) (Source: TfL Surface)

Figure 3-16: Average weekday delay in the London borough of Croydon in the PM Peak (2010-11) (Source: TfL Surface)

3.7.1 Summary of existing highway conditions The Trafficmaster data shows that the PM peak is more congested than the AM Peak with the following junctions of concern: Fiveways Junction; The approaches to the Lombard Roundabout; The road network in the south of the COA including Park Lane and Lower Coombe Street; and The road network around West Croydon Station.

These areas are also shown to be congested in the Saturday and Sunday Interpeak periods.

3.8 Car Parking The COA contains a significant amount of car parking. This is made up of around 7,500 public off-street car spaces, approximately 950 public on-street car spaces and 2000 private off-street car spaces. The off street car parking spaces are spread between 17 off-street car parks within the COA. The level of parking provision within the COA is able to accommodate current demand, with survey data indicating that there is a significant oversupply.

3.9 Taxis There are 7 TfL appointed taxi ranks located within the COA. These are located on Cherry Orchard Road (East Croydon Station), High Street, London Road (West Croydon Station), East Croydon Station and Poplar Walk. There is a need to ensure that future developments do not impact on the space provided for these taxi ranks.

3.10 Freight Freight plays a critical role in supporting the forecasted growth in population and employment. It services growth, supports London‟s economy, and is key in the construction of developments and transport infrastructure.

Croydon town centre‟s freight requirements are predominately met by road transport. For example, the Whitgift Shopping Centre has a dedicated underground loading bay facility accessed from Poplar Walk. To the south of the COA in Purley, there is an operational rail freight terminal which specialises in aggregating traffic. This may have a role in future construction activity but has no provision for the types of retail / office servicing demand currently derived from the COA. In the future, freight access will need to be maintained in line with highway proposals.

3.11 Air Quality The south sub-region has relatively poor air quality compared to other parts of the UK, but comparatively better air quality than inner and central London, and areas of close vicinity to major airports. Air quality in south London is poorest around major

roads and high density centres such as Croydon and Kingston reflecting that the majority of air pollution is generated from transport sources. Opportunity Areas such as Croydon present challenges in terms of balancing air quality management with population and employment growth. Focus areas within LBC for improving air quality include Norbury London Road, Thornton Heath Brigstock Rd/High St/Whitehorse Lane, Waddon Fiveways Corner, Thornton Heath Pond and London Road to St James Road and Purley Cross. A toolkit of local and modal measures should be developed to tackle air quality at these locations.

LBC have four air quality monitoring stations located on George Street, the Purley Way, Norbury and Thornton Heath. Recorded PM10 values are compliant with EU limit values, however the NO2 recorded levels have consistently failed to meet the annual mean limit value. This is also the case at many monitoring locations in London and across major cities in Europe. London faces the threat of substantial fines if EU air pollution limit values are not met. Active steps must be taken to mitigate sources of air pollution. This is of particular importance in areas already suffering air pollution in excess of limit values, such as within the COA. Proposed interventions across London and within Croydon all contribute to tackling air pollution. These include increasing the attractiveness of walking and cycling, tackling road congestion, improving public transport, enabling more efficient freight operations and providing infrastructure, such as electric vehicle charge points.

3.12 Summary of the current situation The COA benefits from being very well connected to the public transport network with a PTAL 6b rating. It has good radial links into central London, via the National Rail network and London Overground links. It also benefits from good orbital links from the Tramlink and extensive bus networks. It is due to these excellent transport links that there is a very high demand for public transport services. This has resulted in National Rail and Tramlink services suffering from crowding. In addition, East Croydon Station is the busiest National Rail Station outside the Central London Termini and is at capacity.

Highway congestion is a problem on the strategic roads through the COA, particularly at key junctions. There is a longstanding traffic challenge of commuting to and from the COA for work in the AM and PM peak. The A212 (Wellesley Road) is a dual carriageway road which travels through the centre of the COA. It causes pedestrian severance through the centre of Croydon with very few street level crossings. The quality and coverage of the walking/cycling routes needs to be improved to support and encourage walking and cycling through the COA. In order for the forecast growth to be accommodated by public transport, investment needs to take place across the COA to tackle the existing problems. Improvements are also required to the urban realm to make it more attractive to travel by sustainable transport modes.