1 Transport for London Planning – Strategic Analysis Project: Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework Strategic Transport Study January 2013 Name Role Author Paola Sammarco Project Lead Reviewer Chris Porter Project Manager Johanna Gibbons Project Manager Stefan Trinder Project Manager Approver Alison Cowie Team Leader Simon Nielson Head of Strategic Analysis 2 Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................... 10 1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 19 2. Context for the Transport Study ............................................................ 20 3. Understanding the current situation ..................................................... 29 4. Understanding the future situation ....................................................... 55 5. Assessment of Interventions ................................................................ 142 6. Conclusions .............................................................................................. 180 3 Table of Figures (NB: All base maps contained within this report unless otherwise labelled are “© Crown copyright. All rights reserved (GLA) (100032379) (2012)’’) Figure Title 0-1 Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework – Transport Study Area 0-2 Current Transport Network in the COA 0-3 PTAL Maps (2006) and (2031) 2-1 Croydon Opportunity Area Planning Framework Boundary 2-2 Map of sites identified within the COA 3-1 South sub-region population change 3-2 South sub-region employment change 3-3 PTAL map (2006) 3-4 PTAL map (2031) 3-5 Current transport network in the COA 3-6 Trips by mode, by residents by region and borough, London residents 2006-9 (all day) 3-7 Sub-regional origin and destination of trips with an origin and destination in the south sub-region, London residents 2006-9 (all day) 3-8 Main mode of egress (onward travel) from East Croydon station (all day) 3-9 Main mode of egress (onward travel) from West Croydon station (all day) 3-10 Potentially cyclable trips in the south sub-region 3-11 National Rail and London Overground crowding in 2007 with MTS reference case 3-12 Overview of the London Overground network 3-13 London bus boarding and alighting – morning peak (2007) 3-14 Crowding on the Tramlink network (2007) 3-15 Average weekday delay in the London borough of Croydon in the AM Peak (2010-11) 3-16 Average weekday delay in the London borough of Croydon in the PM Peak (2010-11) 4-1 Actual flow in the base year (2009) in the AM Peak 4-2 Actual flow in the base year (2009) in the PM Peak 4-3 Traffic volume/capacity in the AM Peak, base year (2009) 4-4 Traffic volume/capacity in the PM Peak, base year (2009) 4-5 Total delay (pcu hrs) in the base year (2009) in the AM Peak 4-6 Total delay (pcu hrs) in the base year (2009) in the PM Peak 4 4-7 Actual Flow in the future year without COA development (2031) in the AM Peak 4-8 Actual Flow in the future year without COA development (2031) in the PM Peak 4-9 Flow difference between the base year (2009) and future year without COA development (2031) in the AM peak 4-10 Flow difference between the base year (2009) and future year without COA development (2031) in the PM peak 4-11 Volume/Capacity greater than 80% in the AM Peak, future year without COA development (2031) 4-12 Volume/Capacity greater than 80% in the PM Peak, future year without COA development (2031) 4-13 Volume/capacity difference between 2009 and future year without COA development 2031 in the AM Peak 4-14 Total delay (pcu hrs) in the future year without COA development 2031 in the AM Peak 4-15 Total delay (pcu hrs) in the future year without COA development 2031 in the PM Peak 4-16 Delay difference (pcu hrs) between the future year without COA development 2031 and the base year (2009) in the AM Peak 4-17 Delay difference (pcu hrs) between the future year without COA development 2031 and the base year (2009) in the AM Peak 4-18 Actual flow in scenario B 2031 in the AM Peak 4-19 Actual flow in scenario B 2031 in the AM Peak 4-20 Actual flow difference between scenario B 2031 and the future year without COA development 2031 in the AM Peak 4-21 Actual flow difference between scenario B 2031 and the future year without COA development 2031 in the PM Peak 4-22 Actual flow difference between scenario B 2031 and base year 2009 in the AM Peak 4-23 Actual flow difference between scenario B 2031 and base year 2009 in the PM Peak 4-24 Volume/capacity greater than 80% in scenario B in the AM Peak 4-25 Volume/capacity greater than 80% in scenario B in the PM Peak 4-26 Volume/capacity difference between scenario B and the future year without COA development (2031) in the AM Peak 4-27 Volume/capacity difference between scenario B and the future year without COA development (2031) in the PM Peak 4-28 Volume/capacity difference between scenario B and the base year 2009 in the AM Peak 5 4-29 Volume/capacity difference between scenario B and the base year 2009 in the PM Peak 4-30 Total delay (pcu hrs) in scenario B 2031 in the AM Peak 4-31 Total delay (pcu hrs) in scenario B 2031 in the PM Peak 4-32 Delay difference between scenario B 2031 and the base year 2009 in the AM Peak 4-33 Delay difference between scenario B 2031 and the base year 2009 in the PM Peak 4-34 Delay difference between scenario B 2031 and the future year without COA development 2031 in the AM Peak 4-35 Delay difference between scenario B 2031 and the future year without COA development 2031 in the PM Peak 4-36 A23 journey time analysis in the southbound direction in the AM Peak 4-37 A23 journey time analysis in the southbound direction in the PM Peak 4-38 A23 journey time analysis in the northbound direction in the AM Peak 4-39 A23 journey time analysis in the northbound direction in the PM Peak 4-40 A232 journey time analysis in the eastbound direction in the AM Peak 4-41 A232 journey time analysis in the eastbound direction in the PM Peak 4-42 A232 journey time analysis in the westbound direction in the AM Peak 4-43 A232 journey time analysis in the westbound direction in the PM Peak 4-44 A212 Wellesley Road journey time analysis in the southbound direction in the AM Peak 4-45 A212 Wellesley Road journey time analysis in the southbound direction in the PM Peak 4-46 A212 Wellesley Road journey time analysis in the northbound direction in the AM Peak 4-47 A212 Wellesley Road journey time analysis in the northbound direction in the PM Peak 4-48 Main highway impacts identifies in the analysis of the base year (2009), future year without COA development (2031) and scenario B (2031) 4-49 2007 AM Peak National Rail flow 6 4-50 2007 PM Peak National Rail flow 4-51 2007 crowding National Rail AM Peak 4-52 Tramlink flows base year (2007) AM Peak 4-53 Tramlink flows base year (2007) PM Peak 4-54 Bus flows base year (2007) AM Peak 4-55 Bus flows base year (2007) PM Peak 4-56 National Rail flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) AM Peak 4-57 National Rail flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) PM Peak 4-58 Future year without COA development (2031) National Rail crowding AM Peak 4-59 Tramlink flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) AM Peak 4-60 Tramlink flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) PM Peak 4-61 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – New Addington to Wimbledon 4-62 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Beckenham Junction to Beckenham Junction 4-63 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Elmers End to Elmers End 4-64 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Elmers End to Therapia Lane 4-65 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Wimbledon to New Addington 4-66 Tramlink line profiles AM Peak – Therapia Lane to Elmers End 4-67 Bus flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) AM Peak 4-68 Bus flow change from base year (2007) to future year without COA development (2031) PM Peak 4-69 National Rail flow change from future year without COA development (2031) to scenario B (2031) AM Peak 4-70 National Rail flow change from future year without COA development (2031) to scenario B (2031) PM Peak 4-71 Future year without COA development (2031) AM Peak National Rail crowding 4-72 Tramlink flow change from future year without COA development (2031) to scenario B (2031) AM Peak 4-73 Tramlink flow change from future year without COA development (2031) to scenario B (2031) PM Peak 4-74 Sensitivity test removing in vehicle crowding on Tramlink in the AM Peak in the future year without COA development (2031) 4-75 Sensitivity test removing in vehicle crowding on Tramlink in the PM Peak in the future year without COA development (2031) 4-76 Flow difference between future year without COA development 7 (2031) and scenario B (2031) in the AM Peak 4-77 Flow difference between future year without COA development (2031) and scenario B (2031) in the PM Peak 4-78 Potentially cyclable trips in the Croydon cluster 5-1 Flow difference between scenario B (2031) with the A23/A232 intervention and scenario B (2031) in the AM Peak 5-2 Flow difference between scenario B (2031) with the A23/A232 intervention and scenario B (2031) in the PM Peak 5-3 Flow difference between scenario B (2031) with the A23/A232 intervention and future year without COA development (2031) in the AM Peak 5-4 Flow difference between scenario B (2031) with the A23/A232 intervention and future year without COA development (2031) in the PM Peak 5-5 Volume/capacity