OECD: “Finland in a Possible Recovery Phase” Calls for New
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
ISSUE 17 (96) • 23 – 29 APRIL 2009 • €3 • WWW.HELSINKITIMES.FI DOMESTIC BUSINESS SPORTS LIFESTYLE CULTURE Monthly The fall Ice Hockey Men kicking April Jazz salaries by of Second World out in nationalities Life Championships boundaries Espoo page 5 page 8 page 12 page 14 page 15 Medvedev OECD: “Finland in a possible recovery phase” calls for new EU energy After months of bad eco- Leading economic indicators nomic news, one of the agreement most popular economic STT MATTHEW PARRY – HT indicators may show an end to the recession. 105 RUSSIAN President Dmitri Medvedev has managed to defl ect Finnish calls for access to his coun- DAVID J. CORD try’s real estate market. HELSINKI TIMES On a recent two-day visit to Fin- 100 land – the fi rst since he assumed of- THERE may be light at the end of the fi ce in May of last year – Medvedev tunnel. For months jobs have been was unwilling to promise Finns the lost, companies have been battered right to buy plots of land and real es- and the public has become numbed tate in Russia, despite the fact that to a seemingly never-ending fl ow of Russian citizens face no such restric- bad news about the economy. For 95 tions on purchases in Finland. Finland, at least, there may be some Finnish Foreign Minister Alex- room for optimism. One of the most ander Stubb (Nat. Coalition Party) widely followed indicators of fu- told MTV3 reporters that President ture economic activity has turned Tarja Halonen had raised the mat- positive. ter in discussions with her Russian Finland’s composite of leading 90 counterpart. The two leaders have economic indicators (CLI) was sliding agreed to further investigate ex- downwards from June 2007 till De- tended rights for Finnish buyers. cember 2008. Since then, however, At a press conference during his the indicator has turned upward. Ac- state visit, Medvedev expressed his cording to the Organisation for Eco- satisfaction with Finland’s position nomic Co-operation and Development on the controversial planned natu- (OECD), Finland’s index has increased Jul-2007 Jul-2008 Jun-2007 Jan-2008 Apr-2007 Jun-2008 Jan-2009 Apr-2008 Oct-2007 Sep-2007 Feb-2008 Dec-2007 Oct-2008 Feb-2009 Aug-2007 Sep-2008 Mar-2008 Nov-2007 Dec-2008 Aug-2008 Nov-2008 May-2007 ral gas pipeline which, if construct- by 44 the fi rst two months of the year May-2008 ed, would run beneath the Baltic and stood at 95.97 in February. Sea. “Looking at the CLI for Finland, Finland Sweden United Kingdom United States Euro area Russian Federation President Halonen reiterated that it seems that some tentative im- from Finland’s perspective, the is- provement in the rate of deterio- Finland’s leading economic indicators have turned positive while some other countries continue to suffer. sue was above all an ecological one. ration in the outlook is appearing, Should steps be taken to eliminate but bear in mind that the empha- The OECD remains careful on to forecast the turning points in a cent drop in GDP for 2009 is proba- the project’s ecological impact, she sis on tentative cannot be overstat- how to interpret the jump in the in- business cycle,” says Petri Mäki- bly too rosy. Specifi cally, he blamed said, Finland will drop its opposition. ed,” says Emmanuelle Guidetti of crease in the CLI. “We would like to Fränti, economist at the Pellervo the massive drop in trade the fi rst Medvedev made it clear that his the OECD Statistics Directorate. “It remind you that this should be tak- Economic Research Institute PTT. few months of this year. “I believe government was less satisfi ed with seems that Finland has entered into en with caution,” continues Guidet- One major reason Mäki-Frän- the whole year will be quite diffi cult the current European energy treaty. a possible recovery phase, since CLI ti. “It may change when new data ti remains cautious is because of for our export companies,” he told He said that Russia would like to hold is increasing and below 100.” points are available.” the structure of the Finnish econ- the newspaper. discussions with the European Un- The OECD uses seven different omy. “Finland is now mainly hit This could be troubling, as ac- ion as soon as possible over a possi- Dangerous business indicators in their composition of by a collapse in exports,” he ex- cording to the OECD only a very few ble renegotiation of the agreement. Predicting the economy is danger- Finland’s leading indicators. These plains. “The Finnish economy is countries have shown any increase The Russian President also indi- ous business. After years of intense include price indices, interest rate not likely to start a recovery be- in their leading indicators. These in- cated that Moscow stood by the ini- study and experimentation, econ- spreads, manufacturing indices and fore our main export markets clude France and Italy as well as Fin- tiative it launched at the Conference omists have still not discovered a share prices. All of these tend to in- first start to recover.” land. The indicators for other major on Security and Cooperation in Eu- method to accurately predict fu- dicate the future economic trend. economies continue their precipi- rope (CSCE) held in Helsinki last De- ture economic activity. One method Prime minister pessimistic tous drop. cember. Medvedev pointed out that that has become popular is compil- Some economists cautious Finland’s heavy dependence upon While the upward trend in the next year will be the thirty-fi fth anni- ing statistics that tend to move pri- Although the uptick in leading in- the collapsing export market has leading indicators is heartening, versary of the historic 1975 Helsinki or to the economy. These are termed dicators is good news, some econo- led Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen the index is still historically low. CSCE, which produced the so-called “leading” indicators because they mists are still cautious. “According to become even more pessimistic. The OECD deems an economic ex- “Helsinki Accords” on European bor- often move in the same direction the to our own experience of forecast- In an interview last week with the pansion is in order when the index ders and human rights. He suggest- economy moves, but only about six ing work in PTT it is really diffi cult Wall Street Journal Vanhanen ad- is over 100. Finland’s index is still ed that any new European agreement months sooner. Historically these to fi nd any single variable or small mitted that the current govern- some fi ve points below its level last could be named “Helsinki Plus”. indicators have had some success. set of variables that could be used ment economic forecast of a 5 per year. 2 23 – 29 APRIL 2009 VIEWPOINT HELSINKI TIMES 3ANTA3AFARIISTHEONLYINTERNATIONALINBOUNDGROUNDHANDLINGCOMPANY IN%NONTEKIO &INLAND4HE COMPANYOWNSANDMANAGESTHE$AVVI!RCTIC,ODGE IN+ARESUVANTO7EHANDLEALARGENUMBEROFGUESTS EVERYYEARANDPRIDEOURSELVESONQUALITYANDAUTHENTICEXPERIENCESIN,APLAND -ANYOFTHEGUESTSCOMEFORSHORTBREAKSBUTOTHERSCOMETOVISIT3ANTA#LAUSSIMPLYFORTHEDAY 4HEPEAKOPERATIONALPERIODISFROM.OVEMBERTO!PRIL 7EARELOOKINGFORENERGETIC SKILLEDANDDEDICATEDPEOPLETOWORKINARANGEOFPOSITIONS !LLAPPLICANTSMUSTBE¾UENTIN%NGLISHANDPREVIOUSEXPERIENCEISANADVANTAGE (/4%,-!.!'%2 9OUWILLNEEDTHEFOLLOWING ✱ (OTELMANAGEMENTEXPERIENCE ✱ Vadim Kononenko does research on Russia and CIS at the 4HEABILITYTOGENERATENEWIDEAS ✱ !PROVENTRACKRECORDOFIMPLEMENTING½NANCIALPROCESSESANDACHIEVING½NANCIALTARGETS Finnish Institute of International Affairs. He is interested ✱ 4HEABILITYTODEVELOPANDDELIVERAPRO½TABLEFOODANDBEVERAGEOPERATION in the interplay of politics and business and has worked as ✱ &ULLSTAFFMANAGEMENTEXPERIENCE a Russia analyst for several think tanks and political risk consultancies. !VAILABLEIMMEDIATELY "ASEDIN&INLANDDURINGOPERATIONALMONTHSANDIN/XFORDFORTHEREMAINDEROFTHEYEAR !##/5.4!.4 9OUWILLBEWORKINGONARANGEOFTASKSTOINCLUDEPREPARATIONOFMANAGEMENTACCOUNTS BUDGETING FORECASTING CASH¾OWS 6!42ETURNS 0AYROLL MANAGING5+OVERSEASPAYMENTS CREDITCONTROLANDALL BANKINGISSUES !LLAPPLICANTSMUSTHOLDARECOGNISEDACCOUNTANCYQUALI½CATIONORBEQUALI½EDBYEXPERIENCEANDPOSSESSA BROADKNOWLEDGEOF½NANCIALPROCESSESANDCOMPUTERSYSTEMS+NOWLEDGEOFTHEHOTELORTRAVELINDUSTRYIS BENE½CIAL9OUWILLNEEDTOBEHIGHLYSELF MOTIVATED WORKWELLUNDERPRESSURE BEAGOODTEAMPLAYERAND CON½DENTINYOURABILITIES !VAILABLEIMMEDIATELY "ASEDIN&INLANDDURINGOPERATIONALMONTHSANDIN/XFORDFORTHEREMAINDEROFTHEYEAR Russia and the EU: (%!$#(%& 9OURRESPONSIBILITIESWILLINCLUDE ✱ &ULLKITCHENSUPERVISIONANDTIMELYDELIVERYOFHIGHQUALITYFOOD competition in a time of crisis? ✱ "UDGETING ORDERINGANDMONITORINGFOODCOSTS 0OSITIONAVAILABLEFROM.OVEMBER Russia continues its policy of acting as a strong player on the inter- national stage, whereas the European Union has opted for saving its energies in order to solve domestic problems. In economic terms this 0LEASESEE WWWTRANSUNCOUKORWWWDAVVIHOTELCOM makes for an interesting strategic clash, writes Vadim Kononenko. TOAPPLYEMAILYOUR#6TORECRUITMENT TRANSUNCOUK INVESTMENT has become a Policy and the nascent East- ship Russia does not have a particularly risky line of busi- ern Partnership, are direct- coherent regional outreach ness during the global fi nan- ed at the same countries. Are project of its own. Interest- cial crisis, but not for Russia. the EU and Russia competing ingly, the EU, which is often In the past few months, Rus- for infl uence and resources criticised for its cumber- sia has been pouring billions of the region and are bound some way to attain at com- of dollars into the economies to collide? Is it possible for mon strategies, has managed of countries including Ice- them to avoid