Te Kauwhata Residential Market Assessment

TE KAUWHATA RESIDENTIAL Client: MARKET ASSESSMENT

Project No:

Date:

SCHEDULE

Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader

51609.7 November 2016 Report Tim Heath / Phil Osborne

DISCLAIMER

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 5

2. INTRODUCTION ...... 7

3. RELEVENT STUDY AREAS / POTENTIAL MARKETS ...... 9

4. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS 2001 - 2016 ...... 11

5. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2015 ...... 13

6. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH FORECAST 2013 - 2033 ...... 15

7. EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION ...... 19

8. RESIDENTIAL SALES SYNOPSIS ...... 22

8.1. AVERAGE SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ...... 22

8.2. SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ...... 24

8.3. RESIDENTIAL SALES VOLUME ANALYSIS ...... 26

9. POKENO VILLAGE ANALYSIS ...... 29

10. ECONOMIC INJECTION ...... 31

10.1. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ...... 31

10.2. POTENTIAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GENERATION FROM THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT ...... 31

10.3. TOTAL CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY ...... 32

10.4. ON-GOING OPERATIONAL ACTIVITY GENERATION ...... 35

10.5. WAIKATO RESIDENTIAL IMPACT ...... 36

10.6. EMPLOYMENT GENERATION ...... 38

10.7. POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS ...... 39

APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES ...... 41

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1: HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS 2001 - 2016 ...... 11

TABLE 2: MARKET HOUSEHOLD GROWTH FORECASTS 2013 - 2033 ...... 16

TABLE 3 : EMPLOYMENT COUNTS IN RELEVANT MARKETS (2012 - 2015) ...... 20

TABLE 4: NZ NET MIGRATION DATA 2001-2015 ...... 24

TABLE 5: MANUKAU SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ...... 25

TABLE 6: ANNUAL AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL DWELLING SALES VOLUME (2000-2015) ...... 28

TABLE 7: POKENO AVERAGE ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE (BUILT 2010 ONWARDS)29

TABLE 8: ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION ECONOMIC IMPACT ON WAIKATO DISTRICT...... 34

TABLE 9: WAIKATO DISTRICT COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION (2015) ...... 35

TABLE 10: WAIKATO DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT REPRESENTATION RATIOS ...... 36

TABLE 11: ADDITIONAL ONGOING ANNUAL ‘LOCAL’ ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GENERATED ($M) ...... 38

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1: RELEVANT STUDY AREAS / POTENTIAL MARKETS ...... 10

FIGURE 2: NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2015 ...... 13

FIGURE 3: FORECAST HOUSEHOLD GROWTH DISTRIBUTION ...... 15

FIGURE 4: NEW ZEALAND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH DISTRIBUTION (2016 – 2033) ...... 17

FIGURE 5: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION 2015 ...... 19

FIGURE 6: SOUTHERN AUCKLAND EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION ...... 21

FIGURE 7: AVERAGE ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE TRENDS 2000 – 2015 ...... 22

FIGURE 8: RELATIVE SALES PERFORMANCE TO AVERAGE ANNUAL DWELLING SALES ...... 26

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. INTRODUCTION

2.1 INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES

•

3. RELEVENT STUDY AREAS / POTENTIAL MARKETS

FIGURE 1: RELEVANT STUDY AREAS / POTENTIAL MARKETS

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

4. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS 2001 - 2016

TABLE 1: HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS 2001 - 2016

Net Growth# Net Growth% HOUSEHOLDS 2001 2006 2013 2016 (2001 - 2016) (2001 - 2016)

Te Kauwhata 460 500 610 640 180 39%

Pokeno 520 610 700 750 230 44%

Waikato District 18,160 20,680 24,750 25,280 7,120 39%

Franklin District 18,420 21,420 26,300 27,100 8,680 47%

Manukau City 87,610 99,900 113,320 115,460 27,850 32%

Papakura District 14,230 15,710 18,460 18,930 4,700 33%

Auckland Region 411,480 460,150 529,120 540,760 129,280 31%

Hamilton City 43,690 48,570 56,120 57,560 13,870 32%

Tauranga City 36,930 42,480 48,940 50,100 13,170 36%

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

5. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2015

FIGURE 2: NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2015

200

180

160

140

120

100

40 Number of New Residential Building Consent Units Consent Building Residential New Numberof

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Te Kauwhata Pokeno

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

6. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH FORECAST 2013 - 2033

FIGURE 3: FORECAST HOUSEHOLD GROWTH DISTRIBUTION

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

TABLE 2: MARKET HOUSEHOLD GROWTH FORECASTS 2013 - 2033

Net Growth# Net Growth% HOUSEHOLDS 2013 2016 2018 2023 2028 2033 (2016 - 2033) (2016 - 2033)

Te Kauwhata 610 640 650 700 760 810 170 27%

Pokeno 700 750 730 790 850 910 200 27%

Waikato District 24,750 25,280 26,100 28,300 30,600 32,600 7,800 31%

Franklin District 26,300 27,100 28,340 31,840 35,440 38,810 12,500 46%

Manukau City 113,320 115,460 118,760 127,740 136,370 144,300 31,000 27%

Papakura District 18,460 18,930 19,650 21,670 23,900 26,120 7,700 41%

Auckland Region 529,120 540,760 558,700 609,700 659,700 707,700 178,600 33%

Hamilton City 56,120 57,560 59,800 64,300 68,900 73,500 17,400 30%

Tauranga City 48,940 50,100 51,900 55,800 59,800 63,700 14,800 30%

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

FIGURE 4: NEW ZEALAND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH DISTRIBUTION (2016 – 2033)

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

1 PAUP 013 Urban Growth chapter and 080/081 Residential Rezoning chapters expert conferencing.

7. EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION

FIGURE 5: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION 2015

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

2 The smallest Statistics New Zealand geographic boundary area.

TABLE 3 : EMPLOYMENT COUNTS IN RELEVANT MARKETS (2012 - 2015)

Franklin Papakura Manukau Waikato Hamilton Tauranga Auckland Year District District City District City City City

2012 18,565 15,935 133,854 12,760 77,390 50,700 319,507

2013 18,575 15,930 134,511 12,710 76,870 50,440 325,482

2014 19,485 16,635 138,791 12,920 79,080 52,450 332,885

2015 20,300 17,070 145,476 13,360 81,270 55,080 345,807

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

FIGURE 6: SOUTHERN AUCKLAND EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

8. RESIDENTIAL SALES SYNOPSIS

8.1. AVERAGE SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS

FIGURE 7: AVERAGE ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE TRENDS 2000 – 20153

$900 $826

Auckland $800 Region $708

$700 $629

$600 $565 Manukau $531 $530 $509 $501 $495 $500 $452 $527 $413

$400 $378 $431 $340 $408 $388 Franklin $307 $360 $361 $370 $279 $347 $300 $268 $325 $343 $289

Average Annual Residential Sale Price ($000) Price Sale Residential AverageAnnual $249 $200 $205 $218 $196 $189

$100 Papakura

$0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Property Economics, Core Logic

3 Dwelling sale prices shown in Figure 7 present annual averages and encompass a calendar year of season price fluctuations. These figures do not reflect a high / low point nor median sale price within its respective year.

TABLE 4: NZ NET MIGRATION DATA 2001-2015

Year Arrivals Departures Net

2001 81,094 71,368 9,726

2002 95,951 57,753 38,198

2003 92,660 57,754 34,906

2004 80,479 65,371 15,108

2005 78,963 71,992 6,971

2006 82,732 68,123 14,609

2007 82,572 77,081 5,491

2008 87,463 83,649 3,814

2009 86,410 65,157 21,253

2010 82,469 72,018 10,451

2011 84,187 86,042 -1,855

2012 85,255 86,420 -1,165

2013 93,965 71,497 22,468

2014 109,317 58,395 50,922

2015 121,937 57,007 64,930

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

8.2. SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS

TABLE 5: MANUKAU SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS

Price ($000's) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0 - 100 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

100 - 200 39% 35% 29% 28% 26% 13% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0%

200 - 300 40% 40% 37% 31% 27% 31% 30% 25% 23% 19% 20% 21% 18% 14% 5% 1%

300 - 400 13% 15% 21% 21% 23% 26% 26% 26% 26% 21% 21% 21% 22% 25% 20% 9%

400 - 500 3% 5% 7% 12% 14% 18% 20% 19% 20% 22% 21% 20% 17% 14% 19% 16%

500 - 600 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 7% 11% 13% 14% 17% 18% 17% 15% 13% 13% 18%

600 - 700 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 8% 7% 10% 10% 12% 13% 12% 13% 13%

700 - 800 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 7% 9% 9% 12%

800 - 1,000 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 9% 14% 17%

1,000 + 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 6% 13%

Source: Property Economics, Core Logic

8.3. RESIDENTIAL SALES VOLUME ANALYSIS

FIGURE 8: RELATIVE SALES PERFORMANCE TO AVERAGE ANNUAL DWELLING SALES

80%

Auckland Region 60%

40%

Manukau City

20%

Franklin

-20%

-40% Papakura

-60% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Property Economics, Core Logic

•

TABLE 6: ANNUAL AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL DWELLING SALES VOLUME (2000-2015)

ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL DWELLING SALES VOLUME (2000 - 2015)

Auckland Year Manukau City Franklin Papakura Region

2000 5,116 488 641 22,826

2001 6,411 544 764 29,978

2002 8,575 825 1,184 41,403

2003 10,862 1,315 1,524 50,620

2004 9,628 1,142 1,569 41,383

2005 9,865 1,051 1,649 41,494

2006 10,119 1,101 1,482 41,000

2007 9,219 1,066 1,345 36,507

2008 4,192 597 624 18,960

2009 5,534 754 800 26,150

2010 4,354 587 691 21,205

2011 5,256 763 722 25,659

2012 6,945 863 1,060 32,255

2013 7,070 766 1,015 32,980

2014 7,078 1,033 1,374 30,337

2015 7,492 1,567 1,945 33,036

Average 7,357 904 1,149 32,862 Annual

Source: Property Economics, Core Logic

9. POKENO VILLAGE ANALYSIS

TABLE 7: POKENO AVERAGE ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE (BUILT 2010 ONWARDS)

Year Average Annual Sale Price ($)

2012 $439,000

2013 $515,000

2014 $568,000

2015 $629,000

2016 $718,000

Source: Property Economics, CoreLogic

10. ECONOMIC INJECTION

10.1. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY

10.2. POTENTIAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GENERATION FROM THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT

•

10.3. TOTAL CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY

•

4 These data frames illustrate the level of employment within the Waikato District (as well as the catchment) by ANZSIC category as well as showing the origin of this labour and therefore its movement.

TABLE 8: ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION ECONOMIC IMPACT ON WAIKATO DISTRICT ($M)

Initial Construction Injection

Residential

Number of Sites 1,500

Total Construction Cost ($m) $630

Direct Waikato Impact ($m) $208

Waikato Impact ($m) $345

Other (Development Costs)

Pre-construction services $67

Earth Works (Civil Construction) etc. $26

Post-construction services $65

Waikato Impact ($m) $68

Initial Economic Injection ($m 2016) $413

Source: Property Economics, Lakeside Developments

10.4. ON-GOING OPERATIONAL ACTIVITY GENERATION

•

TABLE 9: WAIKATO DISTRICT COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION (2015)

Waikato New District Zealand A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 4,580 117,180

B Mining 430 5,810

C Manufacturing 1,890 219,650

D Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 420 15,100

E Construction 1,250 141,430

F Wholesale Trade 260 108,270

G Retail Trade 700 201,110

H Accommodation and Food Services 820 144,760

I Transport, Postal and Warehousing 480 86,780

J Information Media and Telecommunications 95 36,740

K Financial and Insurance Services 50 56,990

L Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 210 29,940

M Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 770 162,980

N Administrative and Support Services 380 101,630

O Public Administration and Safety 900 116,660

P Education and Training 1,660 174,680

Q Health Care and Social Assistance 880 220,130

R Arts and Recreation Services 280 38,270

S Other Services 320 67,510

Total All Industries 16,400 2,045,620

TABLE 10: WAIKATO DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT REPRESENTATION RATIOS

Waikato District Employment Ratios

A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 4.9

B Mining 9.2

C Manufacturing 1.1

D Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 3.5

E Construction 1.1

F Wholesale Trade 0.3

G Retail Trade 0.4

H Accommodation and Food Services 0.7

I Transport, Postal and Warehousing 0.7

J Information Media and Telecommunications 0.3

K Financial and Insurance Services 0.1

L Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 0.9

M Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 0.6

N Administrative and Support Services 0.5

O Public Administration and Safety 1.0

P Education and Training 1.2

Q Health Care and Social Assistance 0.5

R Arts and Recreation Services 0.9 S Other Services 0.6

Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ

10.5. WAIKATO RESIDENTIAL IMPACT

•

5 Statistics NZ measure for employment for a defined geographic area.

TABLE 11: ADDITIONAL ONGOING ANNUAL ‘LOCAL’ ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GENERATED ($M)

Activity Retail Commercial Total

Initial Direct Expenditure $42.0 $5.8 $47.8

Direct Value Added $5.0 $0.5 $5.5

Indirect / Induced Value Added $0.6 $0.1 $0.7

Total Value Added $5.6 $0.5 $6.2

Employment 84 220 304

Source: Property Economics

Note: (2033 figures in 2016 dollars and retail spend levels)

10.6. EMPLOYMENT GENERATION

10.7. POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS

•

APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES

Waikato District

Population 69,965

Households 25,283

GENERAL Person Per Dwelling Ratio 2.77

0–4 Years 7% 5–9 Years 8% 10–14 Years 8% 15–19 Years 7% 20–24 Years 5% 25–29 Years 5% 30–34 Years 5% 35–39 Years 6%

40–44 Years 8% AGE PROFILE AGE 45–49 Years 8% 50–54 Years 8% 55–59 Years 7% 60–64 Years 5% 65 years and Over 12%

$20,000 or Less 10% $20,001–$30,000 9% $30,001–$50,000 16% $50,001–$70,000 15%

INCOME $70,001–$100,000 19% HOUSEHOLD HOUSEHOLD $100,001 or More 31%

$5,000 or Less 14% $5,001–$10,000 5% $10,001–$20,000 17%

$20,001–$30,000 13% INCOME

PERSONAL PERSONAL $30,001–$50,000 22% $50,001 or More 29%

European Ethnic Groups 70% Mäori Ethnic Group 21% Pacific Peoples' Ethnic Groups 3% Asian Ethnic Groups 3%

ETHNICITY MELAA Ethnic Groups 0% Other Ethnic Groups 2%

No Qualification 26% Level 1 Certificate 15% Level 2 Certificate 12% Level 3 Certificate 8% Level 4 Certificate 11% Level 5 or Level 6 Diploma 9% Bachelor Degree and Level 7 Qualifications 10%

ATTAINMENT Postgraduate and Honours Degrees 2% QUALIFICATION QUALIFICATION Masters Degree 2% Doctorate Degree 1% Overseas Secondary School Qualification 4%

Waikato District

Employed - Full Time 50%

Employed - Part Time 15%

Unemployed 5%

EMPLOYMENT Not in Labour Force 30%

Managers 24% Professionals 19% Technicians and Trades Workers 13% Community and Personal Service Workers 7% Clerical and Administrative Workers 11%

Sales Workers 7% EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT

CLASSIFICATION Machinery Operators and Drivers 7% Labourers 12%

Full Time 9% Part Time 4%

Full-time and Part-time Study 0% RATIO

STUDENT STUDENT Not Studying 88%

Wages, Salary, Commissions, Bonuses etc 68% Self-employment or Business 30% Interest, Dividends, Rent, Other Invest. 24% Payments from a Work Accident Insurer 2% NZ Superannuation or Veterans Pension 17% Other Super., Pensions, Annuities 2% Unemployment Benefit 3% Sickness Benefit 3% Domestic Purposes Benefit 5% Invalids Benefit 2% Student Allowance 2% Other Govt Benefits, Payments or Pension 6%

HOUSEHOLD INCOME SOURCES INCOME HOUSEHOLD Other Sources of Income 2% No Source of Income During That Time 0%

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 19% Mining 1% Manufacturing 11% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 1% Construction 9% Wholesale Trade 5% Retail Trade 7% Accommodation and Food Services 3% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 3% Information Media and Telecommunications 1% Financial and Insurance Services 2% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 2% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 6% Administrative and Support Services 3%

INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT OF INDUSTRY Public Administration and Safety 4% Education and Training 8% Health Care and Social Assistance 9% Arts and Recreation Services 1% Other Services 4%

Waikato District

Single 19%

Couple 30%

Single Parent With Children 14%

Two Parent Family 34% HOUSEHOLDS

Other Multi-person 3%

1 Residents 19% 2 Residents 35% 3 Residents 16% 4 Residents 17% 5 Residents 8% 6 Residents 3% 7 Residents 1%

NUMBER OF RESIDENTS OF NUMBER 8 Plus Residents 1%

Dwelling Owned or Partly Owned 51%

Dwelling Not Owned and Not Held in a Family Trust 32% HOME HOME

OWNERSHIP Dwelling Held in a Family Trust 16%

0 Years 20% 1–4 Years 29% 5–9 Years 24%

10–14 Years 11% YEARS AT AT YEARS

RESIDENCE 15–29 Years 12% 30 Years or More 5%

One Bedroom 4% Two Bedrooms 13% Three Bedrooms 44% Four Bedrooms 30% Five Bedrooms 8% Six Bedrooms 1% Seven Bedrooms 0%

NUMBER OF BEDROOMS OF NUMBER Eight or More Bedrooms 0%

Under $100 8% $100–$149 9% $150–$199 15% $200–$249 19% $250–$299 19% $300–$349 15%

WEEKLY RENT PAID RENT WEEKLY $350 and Over 14%