TE KAUWHATA RESIDENTIAL Client: MARKET ASSESSMENT Project No: Date: SCHEDULE Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader 51609.7 November 2016 Report Tim Heath / Phil Osborne DISCLAIMER 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................ 5 2. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................... 7 3. RELEVENT STUDY AREAS / POTENTIAL MARKETS ...................... 9 4. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS 2001 - 2016 .......................... 11 5. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2015 .................... 13 6. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH FORECAST 2013 - 2033 ....................... 15 7. EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION ................................................ 19 8. RESIDENTIAL SALES SYNOPSIS ............................................ 22 8.1. AVERAGE SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ......................... 22 8.2. SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ....................................... 24 8.3. RESIDENTIAL SALES VOLUME ANALYSIS .......................... 26 9. POKENO VILLAGE ANALYSIS ................................................. 29 10. ECONOMIC INJECTION ......................................................... 31 10.1. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ................................. 31 10.2. POTENTIAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GENERATION FROM THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT ............................................. 31 10.3. TOTAL CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY ............................... 32 10.4. ON-GOING OPERATIONAL ACTIVITY GENERATION ........ 35 10.5. WAIKATO RESIDENTIAL IMPACT ................................. 36 10.6. EMPLOYMENT GENERATION ........................................ 38 10.7. POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS ............................... 39 APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES ....................................... 41 3 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS 2001 - 2016 .................................................. 11 TABLE 2: MARKET HOUSEHOLD GROWTH FORECASTS 2013 - 2033 ................................ 16 TABLE 3 : EMPLOYMENT COUNTS IN RELEVANT MARKETS (2012 - 2015) ........................ 20 TABLE 4: NZ NET MIGRATION DATA 2001-2015 ........................................................... 24 TABLE 5: MANUKAU SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ...................................................... 25 TABLE 6: ANNUAL AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL DWELLING SALES VOLUME (2000-2015) ......... 28 TABLE 7: POKENO AVERAGE ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE (BUILT 2010 ONWARDS)29 TABLE 8: ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION ECONOMIC IMPACT ON WAIKATO DISTRICT.......... 34 TABLE 9: WAIKATO DISTRICT COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION (2015) ........... 35 TABLE 10: WAIKATO DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT REPRESENTATION RATIOS ........................ 36 TABLE 11: ADDITIONAL ONGOING ANNUAL ‘LOCAL’ ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GENERATED ($M) .............................................................................................................................. 38 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: RELEVANT STUDY AREAS / POTENTIAL MARKETS .......................................... 10 FIGURE 2: NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2015 .................................. 13 FIGURE 3: FORECAST HOUSEHOLD GROWTH DISTRIBUTION ......................................... 15 FIGURE 4: NEW ZEALAND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH DISTRIBUTION (2016 – 2033) .............. 17 FIGURE 5: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION 2015 ............................................................. 19 FIGURE 6: SOUTHERN AUCKLAND EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION .................................... 21 FIGURE 7: AVERAGE ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE TRENDS 2000 – 2015 .............. 22 FIGURE 8: RELATIVE SALES PERFORMANCE TO AVERAGE ANNUAL DWELLING SALES ....... 26 4 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 6 2. INTRODUCTION 7 2.1 INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES • • • • • • • • 8 3. RELEVENT STUDY AREAS / POTENTIAL MARKETS 9 FIGURE 1: RELEVANT STUDY AREAS / POTENTIAL MARKETS Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 10 4. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS 2001 - 2016 TABLE 1: HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS 2001 - 2016 Net Growth# Net Growth% HOUSEHOLDS 2001 2006 2013 2016 (2001 - 2016) (2001 - 2016) Te Kauwhata 460 500 610 640 180 39% Pokeno 520 610 700 750 230 44% Waikato District 18,160 20,680 24,750 25,280 7,120 39% Franklin District 18,420 21,420 26,300 27,100 8,680 47% Manukau City 87,610 99,900 113,320 115,460 27,850 32% Papakura District 14,230 15,710 18,460 18,930 4,700 33% Auckland Region 411,480 460,150 529,120 540,760 129,280 31% Hamilton City 43,690 48,570 56,120 57,560 13,870 32% Tauranga City 36,930 42,480 48,940 50,100 13,170 36% Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 11 12 5. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2015 FIGURE 2: NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2015 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Number of New Residential Building Consent Units Consent Building Residential New Numberof 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Te Kauwhata Pokeno Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 13 14 6. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH FORECAST 2013 - 2033 FIGURE 3: FORECAST HOUSEHOLD GROWTH DISTRIBUTION Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 15 TABLE 2: MARKET HOUSEHOLD GROWTH FORECASTS 2013 - 2033 Net Growth# Net Growth% HOUSEHOLDS 2013 2016 2018 2023 2028 2033 (2016 - 2033) (2016 - 2033) Te Kauwhata 610 640 650 700 760 810 170 27% Pokeno 700 750 730 790 850 910 200 27% Waikato District 24,750 25,280 26,100 28,300 30,600 32,600 7,800 31% Franklin District 26,300 27,100 28,340 31,840 35,440 38,810 12,500 46% Manukau City 113,320 115,460 118,760 127,740 136,370 144,300 31,000 27% Papakura District 18,460 18,930 19,650 21,670 23,900 26,120 7,700 41% Auckland Region 529,120 540,760 558,700 609,700 659,700 707,700 178,600 33% Hamilton City 56,120 57,560 59,800 64,300 68,900 73,500 17,400 30% Tauranga City 48,940 50,100 51,900 55,800 59,800 63,700 14,800 30% Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 16 FIGURE 4: NEW ZEALAND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH DISTRIBUTION (2016 – 2033) Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 17 1 PAUP 013 Urban Growth chapter and 080/081 Residential Rezoning chapters expert conferencing. 18 7. EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION FIGURE 5: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION 2015 Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 2 The smallest Statistics New Zealand geographic boundary area. 19 TABLE 3 : EMPLOYMENT COUNTS IN RELEVANT MARKETS (2012 - 2015) Franklin Papakura Manukau Waikato Hamilton Tauranga Auckland Year District District City District City City City 2012 18,565 15,935 133,854 12,760 77,390 50,700 319,507 2013 18,575 15,930 134,511 12,710 76,870 50,440 325,482 2014 19,485 16,635 138,791 12,920 79,080 52,450 332,885 2015 20,300 17,070 145,476 13,360 81,270 55,080 345,807 Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 20 FIGURE 6: SOUTHERN AUCKLAND EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 21 8. RESIDENTIAL SALES SYNOPSIS 8.1. AVERAGE SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS FIGURE 7: AVERAGE ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICE TRENDS 2000 – 20153 $900 $826 Auckland $800 Region $708 $700 $629 $600 $565 Manukau $531 $530 $509 $501 $495 $500 $452 $527 $413 $400 $378 $431 $340 $408 $388 Franklin $307 $360 $361 $370 $279 $347 $300 $268 $325 $343 $289 Average Annual Residential Sale Price ($000) Price Sale Residential AverageAnnual $249 $200 $205 $218 $196 $189 $100 Papakura $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Property Economics, Core Logic 3 Dwelling sale prices shown in Figure 7 present annual averages and encompass a calendar year of season price fluctuations. These figures do not reflect a high / low point nor median sale price within its respective year. 22 23 TABLE 4: NZ NET MIGRATION DATA 2001-2015 Year Arrivals Departures Net 2001 81,094 71,368 9,726 2002 95,951 57,753 38,198 2003 92,660 57,754 34,906 2004 80,479 65,371 15,108 2005 78,963 71,992 6,971 2006 82,732 68,123 14,609 2007 82,572 77,081 5,491 2008 87,463 83,649 3,814 2009 86,410 65,157 21,253 2010 82,469 72,018 10,451 2011 84,187 86,042 -1,855 2012 85,255 86,420 -1,165 2013 93,965 71,497 22,468 2014 109,317 58,395 50,922 2015 121,937 57,007 64,930 Source: Property Economics, Statistics NZ 8.2. SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS 24 TABLE 5: MANUKAU SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS Price ($000's) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 - 100 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100 - 200 39% 35% 29% 28% 26% 13% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 200 - 300 40% 40% 37% 31% 27% 31% 30% 25% 23% 19% 20% 21% 18% 14% 5% 1% 300 - 400 13% 15% 21% 21% 23% 26% 26% 26% 26% 21% 21% 21% 22% 25% 20% 9% 400 - 500 3% 5% 7% 12% 14% 18% 20% 19% 20% 22% 21% 20% 17% 14% 19% 16% 500 - 600 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 7% 11% 13% 14% 17% 18% 17% 15% 13% 13% 18% 600 - 700 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 8% 7% 10% 10% 12% 13% 12% 13% 13% 700 - 800 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 7% 9% 9% 12% 800 - 1,000 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 9% 14% 17% 1,000 + 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 6% 13% Source: Property Economics, Core Logic 25 8.3. RESIDENTIAL SALES VOLUME ANALYSIS FIGURE 8: RELATIVE SALES PERFORMANCE TO AVERAGE ANNUAL DWELLING SALES 80% Auckland Region 60% 40% Manukau City 20% 0% Franklin -20% -40% Papakura -60% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Property Economics, Core Logic 26 • • • • • 27 TABLE 6: ANNUAL AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL DWELLING SALES VOLUME (2000-2015) ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL DWELLING SALES VOLUME (2000 - 2015) Auckland Year Manukau City Franklin Papakura Region 2000 5,116 488 641 22,826 2001 6,411 544 764 29,978 2002 8,575 825 1,184 41,403 2003 10,862 1,315 1,524 50,620 2004 9,628 1,142 1,569 41,383 2005 9,865 1,051 1,649 41,494 2006 10,119 1,101 1,482 41,000 2007 9,219 1,066 1,345 36,507 2008 4,192 597 624 18,960 2009 5,534 754 800 26,150 2010 4,354 587 691 21,205 2011 5,256 763 722 25,659 2012 6,945 863 1,060 32,255 2013 7,070 766 1,015 32,980 2014 7,078 1,033 1,374 30,337 2015 7,492 1,567 1,945 33,036 Average 7,357 904 1,149 32,862 Annual Source: Property Economics, Core Logic 28 9.