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BROWN STILL FRONT-RUNNER NATIONALLY for DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION but CLINTON NOW a STRONG SECOND by Humphrey Taylor While Many Pundits and Experts See Arkansas Gov

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BROWN STILL FRONT-RUNNER NATIONALLY for DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION but CLINTON NOW a STRONG SECOND by Humphrey Taylor While Many Pundits and Experts See Arkansas Gov The Hawis Poll For release: Sunday AM, January 19, 1992 1992 #3 ISSN 0895-7983 BROWN STILL FRONT-RUNNER NATIONALLY FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION BUT CLINTON NOW A STRONG SECOND by Humphrey Taylor While many pundits and experts see Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton as the current front-runner for the Democratic nomination, more Democrats and independents say they would vote for former California Gov. Jerry Brown than for any other candidate, according to this Harris Poll, taken by telephone between December 26th and 30th among a representative cross section of 1,255 adults nationwide. Brown's lead is based in part on the fact that he is still much better known than any other candidate. While more than three-quarters of Democrats are familiar with him, fewer than half are familiar with any of the other candidates. The widespread ignorance of all the candidates except Gov. Brown reflects the public's lack of interest in the campaign at this early stage. Interest is likely to quicken after the New Hampshire primary. The only other candidate with a sizable number of supporters is Clinton, who is reported to be gaining in New Hampshire and who has pulled away from the other first-time candidates in the national poll, now in a strong second place. L One indication that Brown's lead may slip is the relatively large number of Democrats and political independents who say they could not vote for the former California governor whom critics have labeled "Governor Moonbeam". The poll shows clearly that the candidates remaining in the race have not been able to fill the vacuum left by N.Y. Gov. Mario Cuomo -- who was the clear front-runner before he declared he would not run. Fully half (51 percent) of Democrats and almost as many independents (44 percent) would like to see him come back into the Democratic race. This poll, like all polls, reflects opinion only at the time it is taken (in this case between Christmas and New Year). Opinions will surely change as the campaign develops. Polls taken early in the campaign have, historically, been a poor guide to the eventual outcome. Humphrey Taylor is President and C.E.O. of Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. TABLES Between December 26th and 30th, the Harris Poll asked a nationwide cross section of 1,255 adults, by telephone: ( over 1 THE HARRIS POLL -2- January 19, 1992 FAMILIARITY WITH CANDIDATES .r/ "Now let me read you the list of six Democrats who are running for their party's presidential nomination in 1992. Who on that list are you not familiar with?" (*)PERCENTAGE OF DEMOCRATS FAMILIAR December 1991 June 1991 % 7 Former Gov. Jerry Brown of California Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa Former Sen. Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts (x) = not asked (*)This table represents the percentage of Democrats who are familiar with the candidates. DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE PREFERENCES 'IIf you had to choose, who would be your first choice from that list?" December 1991 June 1991 Democrats Independents Democrats Independents % % % % Former Gov. Jerry Brown 2 3 20 Gov. Bill Clinton 15 12 3 3 Sen. Bob Kerrey 7 8 2 3 Sen. Tom Harkin 6 4 2 3 Former Sen. Paul Tsongas 3 6 1 2 (Gov. Douglas Wilder of Virginia)(**) (10) Not sure/none 36 4 1 88 87 (x) = not asked (**) = Gov. Douglas Wilder of Virginia has since dropped out of the presidential race CANDIDATES COULD NOT SUPPORT "Finally, which of these do you feel you could not vote for if nominated for president next year?" Democrats Independents % % Former Gow. Jerry Brown Former Sen. Paul Tsongas Gov. Bill Clinton Sen. Tom Harkin Sen. Bob Kerrey (continued) THE HARRIS POLL January 19, 1992 WOULD LIKE CUOMO TO COME BACK INTO THE RACE "As you know Gov. Mario Cuomo of New York bowed out of the race for president, because he had not resolved his state financial problems with the Republican legislative leaders in N.Y. state. Would you like to see him back into the Democratic races at some later date or not?" Total Democrats Independents % % % Would like to see Not like to see Not sure METHODOLOGY This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between December 26th and 30th, among a nationwide cross section of 1,255 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. Contact Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., Information Services, 630 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10111, (212) 698-9600, for complete demographic details for the questions in this release. COPYRIGHT 1992 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC. .
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