ELECTION THE FIRST ’00: TAKE The Rhodes Cook Letter

December 2000 The Rhodes Cook Letter DECEMBER 2000 / VOL. 1, NO. 5 Contents

The 2000 Election: The Perfect Storm...... 3 The 2000 Presidential Election: Too Close to Call...... 4 The Bushes, the GOP and the South: The Electoral Vote since 1988 ...... 7 The 2000 Senate Results: Even-Steven...... 8 The 2000 House Elections: Not All They Were Pumped Up to Be...... 11 The 2000 Gubernatorial Elections: A Second Glance ...... 14 The Presidential Vote Count ...... 16 Subscription Page ...... 17

CORRECTION In Issue 4 of The Rhodes Cook Letter, pp. 7 and 8 should read that John Quincy Adams was elected by the House of Representatives and not by electoral vote.

The Rhodes Cook Letter is published periodically by Rhodes Cook. Web: rhodescook.com. E-mail: An individual subscription for six issues is $99; [email protected]. All contents are copy- for an institution, $249. Make checks payable right ©2000 Rhodes Cook. Use of the material to “The Rhodes Cook Letter” and send them, is welcome with attribution, though the author along with your e-mail address, to P.O. Box 574, retains full copyright over the material con- Annandale, VA, 22003. tained herein. Design by Landslide Design, Rockville, MD. Web: landslidedesign.com. 2 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 The 2000 Election The Perfect Storm

By Rhodes Cook

he nationwide vote Nov. 7 may ultimately be remembered as the political equivalent of “the Tperfect storm” – the confluence of powerful forces that has created one of the most evenly divided elections, for both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, in American history. The presidential race is still unresolved. The Senate has ended up 50-to-50. And the difference between Democratic and Republican membership in the House of Representatives is the closest in nearly a half century. Why has this happened? ELECTION 2000: WHERE THINGS STAND On Capitol Hill, Republican margins were narrow to begin with and tightened further The results below are based on nearly complete but unof- ficial vote totals as of Dec. 1, 2000. An asterisk (*) indi- since most of the vulnerable seats were on cates that as the certified winner in Florida, George W. the GOP side. Bush has been tentatively given the state’s 25 electoral votes, although the result is subject to legal challenge. At the presidential level, Democrats were helped by a sense of national prosperity and President Popular Electoral general approval for policies of the Clinton Vote Vote administration. (D) 50,158,094 267 George W. Bush (R) 49,820,518 271* But Republicans were boosted by wide- spread personal antipathy to Clinton and a Popular Vote Leader: Gore by 337,576 sentiment for change that often besets the Electoral Vote Leader: Bush by 4 president’s party at the eight-year mark. And at play were two conflicting presidential Before After Net Change Election Election in Seats eras – a short-term period of Democratic House of dominance in the ’90s, preceded by a longer Representatives term Republican era which saw the GOP take Republicans 222 221 Democrats five of the previous six presidential elections. Democrats 209 212 Gain 2 The last time there was such a confluence Independents 2 2 of disparate eras was in 1960 – when Repub- Vacancies 2 - licans had the short term advantage from a Senate pair of presidential victories in the 1950s, but Republicans 54 50 Democrats Democrats had lingering momentum from Democrats 46 50 Gain 4 winning the White House the previous five times. The outcome in 1960: the closest Governors presidential election of the 20th century. Republicans 30 29 Democrats Democrats 18 19 Gain 1 At least that year, though, there was clarity Independents 2 2 to the outcome as both the popular and electoral vote winners were the same. This Note: Although the Democratic House total increased from 209 year, that cannot be guaranteed and closure to 212 as a result of the Nov. 7 election, the Democrats are credited with a net gain of two because one of the seats they has been more difficult to achieve than any won was a vacancy they had previously held. election in memory.

3 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 THE 2000 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Too Close to Call

rom start to finish, this year’s presidential election has writ large the flaws in the American Felectoral system. The nominating process started too early and was over too soon (by mid-March, before half the states had voted). The conventions five months later were little more than giant pep rallies, quite satisfied to be a political equivalent of “Happy Days.” And the general election, amazingly, is still to be decided, with the odds favoring the nation’s first “Electoral College misfire” since 1888. As December began, Al Gore was holding a lead of more than 300,000 in the popular vote, while George W. Bush maintained the inside track at capturing Florida’s 25 electoral votes that would give him the presidency. This election is clearly an instant classic, though it has underscored how fortunate the country has been that few presidential elections have been this close. Since popular voting began on a nationwide scale in 1824, only six of 45 contests for the White House have been decided by less than one percentage point. Three of those were in the 1880s, two were in the 1960s, and the other is this one. In short, elections have rarely been so close that many people cared about the decentralized nature of the way they are administered, the variety of ways that ballots can be cast, and the often partisan environment in which they are counted. Still, in spite of its obvious imperfections, this campaign 1996 vs. 2000 has engaged the elector- ate. When the Repub- lican primaries were States carried by Clinton in 1996 and Gore in 2000 in full force earlier States carried by Clinton in 1996 and Bush in 2000 this year between Bush and John States carried by Dole in 1996 and Bush in 2000 McCain, there were record turnouts in many states. And voter participa- tion in the general election has been initially placed at 50.7%, nearly two percentage points higher than 1996, while the actual number of presi- dential ballots cast should approach the record of 104.4 million in 1992. Ultimately, both parties succeeded at ral- lying their bases. Should his victory in * Florida hold, Bush will have scored an

4 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 electoral vote shutout in the South, while Gore just missed a clean sweep in the Northeast, where he lost only New Hampshire and . Gore swept many of the large urban centers of the Frost Belt and Pacific West by wider margins than Clinton did in his clear-cut victory over Bob Dole in 1996. Gore, for instance, carried Philadelphia by nearly 340,000 votes in unofficial returns, the widest Democratic victory margin in the city in any presidential election since 1964. The vice president won the city of St. Louis by almost 72,000 votes, the second-largest Democratic victory margin there since 1968. And Gore swept San Francisco by nearly 190,000 votes, the biggest victory margin by either party in the “city by the bay” since at least 1920. Meanwhile, Bush dominated in rural and small-town America, winning more than three-quarters of the nation’s counties. And the two tended to split the large suburban vote, with Gore holding the upper hand in the Frost Belt and Bush dominating across the Sun Belt. Bush kept Reform Party candidate Patrick J. Buchanan from nibbling deeply into the conservative Republican base. And Gore did a good job fending off Green Party nominee Ralph Nader in most of the key battleground states. Nader ran best where Bush or Gore won easily, such as Alaska, Vermont, Massachusetts and . Many Gore supporters have blamed Nader for costing their candidate New Hampshire, and of course, Florida, if it remains in the Bush column. But it is also arguable that Buchanan drew enough votes to cost Bush Iowa, Wisconsin, New , Oregon and Florida, if the latter should fall to Gore. And any snippiness by Democrats towards Nader would be moot if Gore had carried his home state of Tennessee and its 11 electoral votes. Clinton won Tennessee twice in the 1990s but Gore lost it by four percentage points this year, with Nader taking just 1% of the Tennessee vote. While the presidential election of 2000 in many respects was a battle of the bases, the political map is always evolving. Bush’s win in West Virginia stood out like a sore thumb; Republicans had not carried the Mountaineer State in any non-landslide election year for the GOP since New Deal days. Similarly noteworthy was the Gore-Bush dead heat in Florida, a state that Bush’s father won in 1988 by nearly 1 million votes. But Gore’s pick of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman as his running mate helped rally the large South Florida Jewish vote and recent demographic changes within the state have tended to help the Democrats as well. Gore, for example, was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win fast-growing Orange County (Orlando) since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944. Ultimately, this election was expected to show whether the Clinton-Gore administration was an aberration in an otherwise Republican presidential era, or the early stage of a new era where an articulate, centrist Democrat such as would have the inside track. But like many aspects of this election, that question was difficult to resolve. Giving Bush Florida and Gore New Mexico, Bush carried 30 states this year, including 11 that Clinton had won in 1996. But for the third straight election, Democrats won large battleground states such as , Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey, all of which had been integral to Republican presidential victories from 1968 to 1988.

5 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 2000 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY STATE

The results in this chart are based on nearly complete but unofficial returns. An asterisk (*) indicates that the Florida results may be subject to recount. A dash (-) denotes that Ralph Nader was not on the ballot; “G” indicates Green Party. Percentage of Change in Party’s Vote Share Electoral Votes Popular Vote from ‘96 (in % points) Dems. Reps. Gore (D) Bush (R) Nader (G) Dems. Reps. NATIONAL 267 271 48% 48% 3% - 1% + 7% NORTHEAST 118 9 8 56% 39% 4% + 3% + 4% Delaware 3 55% 42% 3% + 3% + 5% Maine 4 49% 44% 6% - 3% + 13% Maryland 10 57% 40% 3% + 3% + 2% Massachusetts 12 60% 33% 6% - 2% + 5% New Hampshire 4 47% 48% 4% - 2% + 9% New Jersey 15 55% 41% 3% + 1% + 5% 33 60% 35% 4% 0% + 4% Pennsylvania 23 51% 46% 2% + 2% + 6% Rhode Island 4 61% 32% 6% + 1% + 5% Vermont 3 51% 41% 7% - 2% + 10% West Virginia 5 46% 52% 2% - 6% + 15% District of Columbia 3 85% 9% 5% 0% 0% MIDWEST 68 61 Illinois 22 54% 43% 2% 0% + 6% Indiana 12 41% 57% - - 1% + 10% Iowa 7 49% 48% 2% - 1% + 8% Kansas 6 37% 58% 3% + 1% + 4% Michigan 18 51% 46% 2% - 1% + 7% 10 48% 45% 5% - 3% + 10% Missouri 11 47% 50% 2% - 1% + 9% 5 33% 63% 4% - 2% + 9% North Dakota 3 33% 61% 3% - 7% + 14% Ohio 21 46% 50% 3% - 1% + 9% 3 38% 60% - - 5% + 13% Wisconsin 11 48% 48% 4% - 1% + 9% SOUTH 0 163 Alabama 9 42% 56% 1% - 1% + 6% Arkansas 6 46% 51% 1% - 8% + 14% Florida 25* 49% 49% 2% + 1% + 7% 13 43% 55% - - 3% + 8% Kentucky 8 41% 56% 1% - 5% + 11% Louisiana 9 45% 53% 1% - 7% + 13% Mississippi 7 40% 58% 1% - 4% + 9% North Carolina 14 43% 56% - - 1% + 7% Oklahoma 8 38% 60% - - 2% + 12% South Carolina 8 41% 57% 1% - 3% + 7% Tennessee 11 47% 51% 1% - 1% + 5% 32 38% 59% 2% - 6% + 10% Virginia 13 45% 52% 2% 0% + 5% WEST 81 38 Alaska 3 28% 59% 10% - 5% + 8% Arizona 8 45% 50% 3% - 2% + 6% California 54 54% 41% 4% + 3% + 3% Colorado 8 42% 51% 5% - 2% + 5% Hawaii 4 56% 37% 6% - 1% + 5% Idaho 4 28% 68% 1% - 6% + 16% Montana 3 33% 58% 6% - 8% + 14% 4 46% 50% 2% + 2% + 7% New Mexico 5 48% 48% 4% - 1% + 6% Oregon 7 47% 47% 5% 0% + 8% Utah 5 26% 67% 5% - 7% + 13% Washington 11 50% 45% 4% 0% + 8% Wyoming 3 28% 69% - - 9% + 19%

6 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 THE BUSHES, THE GOP AND THE SOUTH: THE ELECTORAL VOTE SINCE 1988

ice President Al Gore won a majority of electoral votes this year in every region except the VSouth. But Texas Gov. George W. Bush’s ability to pitch a 163-to-0 shutout there, assuming the certification of his Florida victory holds, would be just enough to give the Republican a narrow victory in the Electoral College. Fully 60% of Bush’s entire complement of electoral votes this year comes from the South, which is the only region in which Republicans have won a majority of electors in any election since the GOP’s last presidential victory in 1988. Then, Bush’s father swept the bulk of the electors from every region. But that was at the end of a Republican presidential era which saw the GOP win five of six contests from 1968 through 1988. Since then, Republicans have struggled to win electoral votes outside the South (the 11 states of the Confederacy plus Kentucky and Oklahoma). In the last three presidential contests (1992 through 2000), the GOP has been trampled by a cumulative 372-to-9 count in the Northeast, 270-to-87 margin in the West, and 268-to-119 tally in the Midwest – an aggregate three-election total outside the South of 910 electoral votes for the Democrats, 215 for the Republicans. The South, though, has become a reliable Republican redoubt. Its tally has been 383-to-106 Republican in the last three elections, and it was wall-to-wall GOP in the two presidential elections prior to that (1984 and 1988). The electoral vote totals for this year are tentative, as results are not official yet from every state. The Democratic electoral vote total in 1988 does not include a “faithless” elector from West Virginia who voted for vice-presidential candidate for president, rather than the party’s standard-bearer, Michael S. Dukakis. The winner’s total in each region and nationally is indicated in bold type. For a list of the states in each region, see the presidential vote chart

NATIONAL Northeast Midwest South West D R Winner D R D R D R D R 1988 111 426 Bush (R) 61 73 R 29 108 R 0 155 R 21 90 R 1992 370 168 Clinton (D) 127 0 D 100 29 D 47 116 R 96 23 D 1996 379 159 Clinton (D) 127 0 D 100 29 D 59 104 R 93 26 D 2000 267 271 - 118 9 D 68 61 D 0 163 R 81 38 D Total 1,127 1,024 433 82 D 297 227 D 106 538 R 291 177 D (1988-2000) Percent of 52% 48% 84% 16% 57% 43% 16% 84% 62% 38% Electors

7 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 THE 2000 SENATE ELECTIONS EVEN-STEVEN

hose that predicted before the election that the Democrats would have a better chance of Tcapturing the Senate than the House were right. While Democrats scored paltry gains in the House, they went from a 54-46 deficit to a tie in the Senate. It will be the first tie in the partisan make up of the nation’s upper chamber in 120 years. Republicans would still retain control of the Senate after the inauguration of a new president Jan. 20, because a) Republican Richard B. Cheney would be able to break ties as vice president, or b) Democrat Joseph I. Lieberman would move up to vice president and his Connecticut Senate seat would presumably be filled by a Republican by the state’s GOP . But clearly, Nov. 7 was a favorable day for the Democrats in Senate balloting. Democrats defeated five Republican incumbents, while losing only one of their own (Charles S. Robb of Virginia). But in the nature of “what ifs,” the Democrats suffered two close losses which could have cost him them control of the Senate. Robb lost by only four percentage points to former GOP Gov. George Allen in Virginia, and Democratic challenger Brian Schweitzer lost by just three percentage points to Republican Sen. in Montana. Democrats did oust three of the more conservative members of the large Republican class of 1994 – Spencer Abraham of Michigan, Rod Grams of Minnesota, and John Ashcroft. And they beat two veteran GOP senators, five-term incumbent William V. Roth Jr. of Delaware, and three-term incumbent of Washington. The Washington race was the last to be decided as Gorton lost in a recount by barely 2,000 votes out of nearly 2.5 million cast. The Democratic winners were an eclectic group – Gov. Thomas R. Carper in Delaware, former Rep. Maria Cantwell in Washington, Rep. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, wealthy businessman Mark Dayton in Minnesota, and the late Gov. Mel Carnahan in Missouri. Carnahan died in a mid-October plane crash, too late to have his name removed from the ballot. Shortly before the election, his widow, Jean, indicated that she would accept a two-year appointment to the seat. A pair of senators appointed during the 106th Congress – one a Democrat, one a Republican - won full six-year terms. Republican Lincoln Chafee, who assumed the Rhode Island seat of his late father last year, won easily as did Democrat Zell Miller, who held the Georgia seat that he was tapped to fill in July upon the death of Republican Paul Coverdell. Each party captured an open seat held by the other, with former Democratic Rep. Bill Nelson winning the seat of the retiring Republican, Connie Mack, in Florida, and former Republican Rep. John Ensign picking up the Nevada seat being vacated by Democrat Richard H. Bryan.

8 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 Democrats held the other three open seats being vacated by Democratic incumbents – with former Gov. taking the seat of Bob Kerrey in Nebraska, wealthy financier assuming the mantle of Frank R. Lautenberg in New Jersey, and First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton capturing the seat of Daniel Patrick Moynihan in New York. Corzine spent roughly $60 million, the record for a Senate campaign. But Clinton’s contest with New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, then GOP Rep. Rick Lazio, was the year’s marquee Senate race. Running nip and tuck in the polls all year, she ended up with an unexpectedly comfortable victory, matching the 55% share of the vote that Moynihan registered in scoring his last Senate victory in 1994. Her victory margin of roughly 750,000 votes was slightly more than Robert F. Kennedy’s in his fabled New York Senate win in 1964. Meanwhile, some of the biggest names in the Senate won landslide victories. Edward M. Kennedy won re-election in Massachusetts with 73%, his largest share of the vote since 1964. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott of Mississippi was re-elected with 66% of the vote. And Lieberman – who was listed on the ballot in Connecticut for both Senate and vice president, took 63% of the vote in his Senate race. Some Senate veterans, though, saw their vote share go down from their last election. Lieberman’s percentage was down four percentage points from 1994. Lott was down three points, as was Orrin G. Hatch, who made a quixotic run for the Republican presidential nomination this year. But the biggest fall off by a senator who was ultimately re-elected came in Montana, where Burns’ vote share was down a dozen percentage points from 1994. Yet there were also a number of Senate incumbents who gained altitude at the polls in 2000, from Wyoming Republican Craig Thomas, who ran 15 percentage points better than his first Senate run in 1994, to Vermont Republican James M. Jeffords, whose vote share increased 16 points from his last campaign six years ago. Even the unsuccessful Charles Robb in Virginia ran two points better this year than 1994. That year, his 46% share was enough to win a three-way race with Republican Oliver L. North and a Republican-oriented independent. But this year, his 48% share was not enough to win a two-way race with Allen. The results on the following page are based on nearly complete, but unofficial returns. The names of winners are in bold type. An asterisk (*) denotes an incumbent. A pound sign (#) indicates the special case of Mel Carnahan, who was the winner in Missouri after his death.

9 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000

2000 SENATE ELECTION RESULTS BY STATE Change in Incumbent’s Vote Share Party Control from ‘94 Before After Democratic Candidate % Republican Candidate % (in % points) NORTHEAST Connecticut D D Joseph I. Lieberman* 63% Phil Giordano 34% - 4% Delaware R D Gain Thomas Carper 56% William V. Roth Jr.* 44% - 12% Maine R R Mark Lawrence 31% Olympia Snowe* 69% + 9% Maryland D D Paul Sarbanes* 63% Paul Rappaport 37% + 4% Massachusetts D D Edward M. Kennedy* 73% Jack Robinson 13% + 15% New Jersey D D Jon Corzine 51% Bob Franks 47% Open Seat New York D D Hillary Rodham Clinton 55% Rick Lazio 43% Open Seat Pennsylvania R R Ron Klink 45% Rick Santorum* 52% + 3% Rhode Island R R Robert Weygand 41% Lincoln Chafee* 57% Appointee Vermont R R Ed Flanagan 25% James M. Jeffords* 66% + 16% West Virginia D D Robert C. Byrd* 78% David Gallaher 20% + 9%

MIDWEST Indiana R R David Johnson 32% Richard G. Lugar* 66% - 1% Michigan R D Gain Debbie Stabenow 49% Spencer Abraham* 48% - 4% Minnesota R D Gain Mark Dayton 49% Rod Grams* 43% - 6% Missouri R D Gain Mel Carnahan# 50% John Ashcroft* 48% - 12% Nebraska D D Ben Nelson 51% 49% Open Seat North Dakota D D Kent Conrad* 61% Duane Sand 39% + 3% Ohio R R Ted Celeste 36% Mike DeWine* 60% + 7% Wisconsin D D Herb Kohl* 62% John Gillespie 37% + 4%

SOUTH Florida R D Gain Bill Nelson 51% Bill McCollum 46% Open Seat Georgia D D Zell Miller* 57% Mack Mattingly 39% Appointee Mississippi R R Troy Brown 31% Trent Lott* 66% - 3% Tennessee R R Jeff Clark 32% Bill Frist* 65% + 9% Texas R R Gene Kelly 32% Kay Bailey Hutchison* 65% + 4% Virginia D R Gain Charles S. Robb* 48% George Allen 52% + 2%

WEST Arizona R R No Candidate – Jon Kyl* 79% + 25% California D D * 56% Tom Campbell 36% + 9% Hawaii D D Daniel Akaka* 73% John Carroll 25% + 1% Montana R R Brian Schweitzer 47% Conrad Burns* 50% - 12% Nevada D R Gain Ed Bernstein 40% John Ensign 55% Open Seat New Mexico D D Jeff Bingaman* 62% Bill Redmond 37% + 8% Utah R R Scott Howell 32% Orrin G. Hatch* 66% - 3% Washington R D Gain Maria Cantwell 49% Slade Gorton* 49% - 7% Wyoming R R Mel Logan 22% Craig Thomas* 74% + 15%

Results are based on nearly complete, but unofficial returns. The names of winners are in bold type. An asterisk (*) denotes an incumbent. A pound sign (#) indicates the special case of Mel Carnahan, who was the winner in Missouri after his death.

10 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 THE 2000 HOUSE ELECTIONS Not All They Were Pumped Up to Be

or much of this past election year, the battle for control of the House of Representatives was Fconsidered second in importance only to the campaign for president. Democrats had been edging closer and closer to parity in recent elections and needed only a handful of seats this year to win a majority for the first time since Republicans won House control in 1994. But as the first returns trickled in Election Night, it was apparent that the Democrats would have a difficult time capturing a majority, and by midnight it was clear that it was impossible they would reach their goal. Basically, the Democrats did fine in the Sun Belt, picking up a net of one seat in the South and seven in the West. But Democrats were weak where they should have been strong, losing a net of three seats in the Northeast (the party’s prime base in congressional and presidential voting) and three seats in the Midwest. Ultimately, Democrats scored a net gain nationally of just two seats, leaving the final tally (barring late recounts) 221 for the Republicans, 212 for the Democrats, and two independents. (Rep. Julian C. Dixon of California died Dec. 8, 2000, creating a Democratic vacancy. But his Los Angleles-area district is virtually certain to remain Democratic.) CLOSEST HOUSE RACES OF 1998 That it would be a long night for the (Ranked by Margin in Raw Votes) Democrats was evident from early on * indicates a freshman, first elected in 1998 2000 Election Night, as Democratic oppor- Victory Margin Election tunities in the early reporting states Rank Winner Party District Votes % Pts. Outcome of Indiana and Kentucky went unre- 1 Don Sherwood* R Pa. 10 515 0.3% Won 2 James H. Maloney D Conn. 5 2,343 1.5% Won warded. 3 Richard H. Baker R La. 6 2,843 1.4% Won As seats began to switch, the initial 4 Robin Hayes* R N.C. 8 3,378 2.5% Won 5 Brian P. Bilbray R Calif. 49 4,116 2.2% LOST flurry went the Republicans’ way. 6 Steven Kuykendall* R Calif. 36 4,219 2.3% LOST Two seats in Democratic Appalachia 7 Baron Hill* D Ind. 9 5,176 2.9% Won fell to the Republicans – the western 8 Rush Holt* D N.J. 12 5,307 2.9% Won Pennsylavnia seat left open by Dem- 9 Mark Udall* D Colo. 2 5,561 2.5% Won ocratic Senate candidate Ron Klink, 10 Shelley Berkley* D Nev. 1 5,775 3.5% Won and the West Virginia seat vacated 11 Lane Evans D Ill. 17 6,056 3.2% Won 12 James E. Rogan R Calif. 27 6,827 4.3% LOST by Democratic gubernatorial candi- 13 David Wu* D Ore. 1 7,166 3.0% Won date Bob Wise. 14 Anne M. Northup R Ky. 3 7,825 4.0% Won 15 Joseph M. Hoeffel* D Pa. 13 9,190 5.0% Won 16 Dennis Moore* D Kan. 3 9,438 4.8% Won

11 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 Altogether, Republicans won six of the seven seats that changed party hands east of the , losing only the Long Island district vacated by Republican Senate candidate Rick Lazio. West of the Mississippi, the Democrats fared much better, losing only a pair of seats in Minnesota and Missouri. And they finished strong in the West, picking up five seats in California alone (including that of veteran Democratic Rep. Matthew G. Martinez, who switched to the GOP in July after losing the Democratic primary). Altogether, 18 seats changed party hands, one more than in 1998. Twelve of the switches were among open seats, with each party gaining six. That was a moral victory of sorts for the Republicans, who had nearly three times as many open seats up for grabs as the Democrats (26 to 9). Meanwhile, six incumbents were defeated – four Republicans and two Democrats. Democrats knocked off three Republican incumbents in Southern California, where a recent increase in the minority population has enhanced the Democrats’ chances. The highest profile loser was James E. Rogan, a House manager in the impeachment of President Clinton. The other California congressmen to lose were Brian P. Bilbray, a member of the large Republican class of 1994, and freshman Steven Kuykendall, who was beaten by Democrat . She formerly held the seat before making an unsuccessful run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 1998. The losses by the three Republican incumbents in California were not unexpected. Each had won their seat in 1998 by a margin of less than 7,000 votes. (See Closest House Races of 1998, p. 11) The other three House incumbents to lose this year had won by much wider margins in 1998 – Democrats Sam Gejdenson of Connecticut and David Minge of Minnesota, and Republican Jay Dickey, who represents the Arkansas district that includes Clinton’s home towns of Hope and Hot Springs.

Primes, Misfits, and Fickles Most of the 18 House seat switches this year took place within one of three categories of districts, each of which were either open or being defended by an incumbent that won in 1998 with less than 55% of the vote. (For background, see “The Battle for the House: It Hinges on Primes, Misfits and Fickles” in the early November issue, p. 11. For a list of which seats are in each category, see the chart on the next page.) Nine of the switches were in “Prime Battlegrounds” – districts that Clinton carried in 1996 with less than a majority of the vote. During the Clinton presidency, this has been the leading venue for seat changes. Four of the seat changes came among the “Misfits” – ticket-splitting districts that in 1996 gave Clinton a majority of the vote for president or favored Republican Bob Dole, but were represented by a House member of the other party. Two of the seat switches were among the “Fickles” – districts that seem to offer favorable terrain for one party or the other, but had changed hands at the House level at least once during the Clinton presidency. The other three seat switches this year could fit into a new category called “Low-flying Incumbents” – House members who may have won with more than 55% of the vote in 1998, but were often beneath that threshold in previous elections.

12 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 Gejdenson would certainly fit this category. He won a 10th term in 1998 with 61%, but was held under 52% in his previous three elections, including a miniscule 21-vote victory in 1994. Minge was also a low flier. He won a fourth term two years ago with 57% of the vote, but had been under 55% his previous three times. And Republican Dickey, while a 58% winner last time, had won his first two terms in 1992 and 1994 with a modest 52% of the vote.

2000 HOUSE SWITCHES

DEMOCRATIC GAINS (10) '96 Pres. District Incumbent Winner % Winner % Category Successful Challengers (4) Ark. 4 Jay Dickey (R) Mike Ross (D) 51% Clinton 60% - Calif. 27 James E. Rogan (R) (D) 52% Clinton 49% Prime Battleground Calif. 36 Steven Kuykendall (R) Jane Harman (D) 48% Clinton 47% Prime Battleground Calif. 49 (R) (D) 50% Clinton 49% Prime Battleground

Open Seats (6) Calif. 15 Tom Campbell (R) (D) 54% Clinton 53% Misfit Calif. 31 Matthew G. Martinez (R) (D) 80% Clinton 65% Misfit N.Y. 2 Rick Lazio (R) Steve Israel (D) 48% Clinton 54% Misfit Okla. 2 Tom Coburn (R) Brad Carson (D) 55% Clinton 47% Prime Battleground Utah 2 Merrill Cook (R) Jim Matheson (D) 56% Dole 47% Fickle Wash. 2 Jack Metcalf (R) Rick Larsen (D) 51% Clinton 47% Prime Battleground

REPUBLICAN GAINS (8) '96 Pres. District Incumbent Winner % Winner % Category Successful Challengers (2) Conn. 2 Sam Gejdenson (D) Rob Simmons (R) 51% Clinton 53% - Minn. 2 David Minge (D) Mark Kennedy (R) 48% Clinton 45% -

Open Seats (6) Mich. 8 Debbie Stabenow (D) Mike Rogers (R) 49% Clinton 49% Prime Battleground Mo. 6 Pat Danner (D) Samuel Graves (R) 51% Clinton 46% Prime Battleground N.Y. 1 Michael P. Forbes (D) Felix Grucci (R) 56% Clinton 51% Fickle Pa. 4 Ron Klink (D) Melissa Hart (R) 59% Clinton 47% Prime Battleground Va. 2 Owen Pickett (D) Edward Schrock (R) 52% Dole 47% Misfit W.V. 2 Bob Wise (D) (R) 48% Clinton 49% Prime Battleground

13 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 THE 2000 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS A SECOND GLANCE

t first glance, the 11 gubernatorial races Nov. 7 offered a quiet backwater to the turmoil that Awas evident elsewhere. Only in West Virginia did a governor’s chair switch party hands. But looked at more closely, the results were a slap in the face to a number of incumbents, as well as to challengers bearing resumes polished in Washington. Two incumbents seeking third terms, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Republican Michael Leavitt of Utah, both saw their vote shares drop nearly 20 percentage points from their last elections. Each incumbent had earlier struggled to renomination, losing nearly 40% of their party’s primary vote before their fall campaigns began. In Utah, some of the state’s more conservative voters had seen Leavitt’s support for a concealed weapons law as an attack on the Second Amendment. Meanwhile, New Hampshire politics has been roiled in recent years by a school financing crisis, which has left unresolved whether the state will have to impose an income or sales tax. In Vermont, Democratic Gov. Howard Dean saw his vote share drop 6 percentage points from two years ago, as he barely won the majority of the vote needed to keep his election from being decided by the state Legislature. Dean became a target of the “take back Vermont” movement that materialized in force after he signed legislation earlier this year recognizing same-sex civil unions. Dean’s 50% share of the vote this time was by far his lowest in five successful runs for governor. Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Republican Gov. Cecil H. Underwood saw his vote share drop only 5 percentage points from 1996, but it was a crucial 5% as he lost narrowly to Democratic Rep. Bob Wise. This was the fifth general-election run for governor for the 78-year-old Underwood. He had won in 1956 and 1996, and lost in 1964, 1976, and now, 2000. Wise was the only candidate this year with a congressional background to win a governorship. Republican Reps. David McIntosh and Jim Talent lost in Indiana and Missouri, respectively, former GOP Sen. Gordon Humphrey lost to Shaheen in New Hampshire, and former Democratic Rep. Bill Orton was beaten by Leavitt in Utah. In four of the five open-seat gubernatorial contests, voters elevated candidates who already held state office. Two lieutenant governors moved up (Democrat Ruth Ann Minner in Delaware and Republican in Montana), as did a state treasurer (Democrat Bob Holden in Missouri) and a state attorney general (Mike Easley in North Carolina). The gubernatorial winner in North Dakota, John Hoeven, was a former president of the state-owned bank. The results on the following page are based on this year’s nearly complete but unofficial returns, and compare the vote percentages of incumbents seeking re-election this year with their showing in their previous election, either 1996 or 1998 (in the case of New Hampshire and Vermont). Incumbents are indicated by an asterisk (*). The names of winners are indicated in bold type.

14 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 2000 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY STATE

ltogether, no gubernatorial winners reached 60% of the vote in the 2000 election, compared Ato more than half of this year’s Senate winners. Whether it is a precursor of tough times ahead for the states’ top executives will be seen soon enough. Two governorships are to be decided in 2001 – in New Jersey and Virginia – while more than two-thirds of the nation’s governorships will be up in 2002.

Change in Incumbent’s Party Control Vote Share from Before After Last Election Election Election Democratic Candidate % Republican Candidate % (in % pts.) Delaware D D Ruth Ann Minner 59% John Burris 40% Open Seat Indiana D D Frank O’Bannon* 57% David McIntosh 42% + 5% Missouri D D Bob Holden 49% Jim Talent 48% Open Seat Montana R R Mark O’Keefe 47% Judy Martz 51% Open Seat New Hampshire D D Jeanne Shaheen* 49% Gordon Humphrey 43% -17% North Carolina D D Mike Easley 52% Richard Vinroot 46% Open Seat North Dakota R R Heidi Heitkamp 45% John Hoeven 55% Open Seat Utah R R Bill Orton 42% Michael Leavitt* 56% -19% Vermont D D Howard Dean* 50% Ruth Dwyer 39% - 6% Washington D D Gary Locke* 58% John Carlson 40% 0% West Virginia R D Gain Bob Wise 50% Cecil H. Underwood* 47% - 5%

15 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000 The Presidential Vote Count

e are now finishing the stage of the vote-counting process that in every recent presidential Welection has been anticlimactic. It is a period that lasts about a month, when slow- reporting precincts and remaining absentee ballots trickle in to complete each state’s official vote. But this year, the winner of the nationwide popular vote — as well as the election itself — will be determined by late returns. Could George W. Bush overtake Al Gore’s narrow lead in this last stage of the nationwide vote count? Theoretically, yes, but probably not. In 1988, more than 1.7 million votes were counted after election week was over. In 1992, there were more than 2.6 million late votes. In 1996, more than 3.3 million votes were late returns. Yet in each case, the additional votes swelled the lead of the candidate who was already in front. George Bush’s victory margin increased by nearly 150,000 votes in the month after the 1988 election. Bill Clinton’s plurality grew by nearly 250,000 votes during the final stage of the 1992 vote count. And Clinton’s margin expanded by nearly 450,000 votes with late returns in 1996. (See chart below) In each case, the votes counted after election week broke in almost the exact same proportions among the candidates as they had during the massive early phase of the vote count. Republicans are hopeful that the absentee ballots left to count this year will be pro-GOP. But in recent elections, roughly half the late returns have come from three Pacific Coast states — California, Oregon and Washington — and a late Bush tide in those states would be a break with the trend thus far. Gore has a strong lead in California, a clear-cut edge in Washington, and he won Oregon narrowly.

Election Week Totals Late Returns Official Count 1988 George Bush (Rep.) 47,946,422 53.89% 939,675 54.24% 48,886,097 53.90% Michael S. Dukakis (Dem.) 41,016,429 46.11% 792,645 45.76% 41,809,074 46.10% Bush Plurality 6,929,993 147,030 7,077,023 1992 Bill Clinton (Dem.) 43,728,275 43.24% 1,181,051 45.05% 44,909,326 43.28% George Bush (Rep.) 38,167,416 37.74% 936,466 35.72% 39,103,882 37.69% (Ind.) 19,237,247 19.02% 504,410 19.24% 19,741,657 19.03% Clinton Plurality 5,560,859 244,585 5,805,444 1996 Bill Clinton (Dem.) 45,628,667 49.94% 1,773,690 53.52% 47,402,357 50.06% Bob Dole (Rep.) 37,869,435 41.45% 1,329,320 40.11% 39,198,755 41.40% Ross Perot (Reform) 7,874,283 8.62% 211,119 6.37% 8,085,402 8.54% Clinton Plurality 7,759,232 444,370 8,203,602 2000 Al Gore (Dem.) 49,154,560 48.77% - - George W. Bush (Rep.) 48,947,577 48.56% - - Ralph Nader (Green) 2,692,874 2.67% - - Gore Plurality 206,983 Note: Election week totals for 1988, 1992 and 1996 are from the post-election issue of the Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, which was published the Saturday after each election. This year’s totals are from America Online as of noon, Friday, Nov. 10. Official totals for 1988, 1992 and 1996 are from America at the Polls, a compendium of presidential election results published by CQ Press. The late returns represent the difference between the two sets of totals. Percentages are based on the two-party vote in 1988, and the vote for the top three candidates in 1992, 1996 and 2000.

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17 The Rhodes Cook Letter • December 2000