Mauno Koivisto Lecture 2010: Political Dropouts and the Effects Of

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Mauno Koivisto Lecture 2010: Political Dropouts and the Effects Of Research on Finnish Society c RFS and the author Vol. 4 (2011), pp. 67–75 ISSN 1796-8739 Mauno Koivisto Lecture 2010: Political dropouts and the effects of participatory innovations Henry Milner Umeå University Université de Montréal Figure 2. Gini indices scattered against (the F-value of) the effect Introduction of education on (CSES) political knowledge (Grönlund & Milner, My recent work (Milner 2002; 2010) is concerned with 2006) what I term civic literacy, i.e. the knowledge and skills re- quired to make sense of the political world. Levels of civic literacy, i.e. the proportion of the population with such skills and knowledge, are low and declining, and there are signif- icant differences between high and low civic literacy coun- tries. The high civic literacy countries are especially those in Scandinavia and Northern Europe that engage in policies I term non-material redistribution, in such areas as adult ed- ucation, communications, libraries, civic education, etc. I find a close relationship between material and non-material redistribution (see Figure 1, which shows that countries that redistribute income have lower disparities in levels of liter- acy). These differences, it appears, prevail among the Internet generation, i.e. those 18–30, the first to grow up with the Internet, and among whom civic literacy is low. Citizens lacking the minimum level of knowledge needed to make sense of the political world are termed political dropouts. Among young people, they are better termed potential polit- ical dropouts. Such dropouts are concentrated among those with relatively low levels of education. What distinguishes the high civic literacy countries is that they are much better at reducing this. Figure 2 shows that compared to the popula- tion as a whole, citizens as poorly educated citizens in coun- tries in Scandinavia and northern Europe are more politically Henry Milner is a political scientist at the University of Montréal knowledgeable than elsewhere. in Canada and Umeå University in Sweden. In this article, based on my latest book (Milner, 2010) I focus on innovations that reduce the proportion of political Figure 1 . Inequality in the distribution of literacy (9th to 1st dropouts, looking to the high civic-literacy countries for in- decile) spiration. I conclude that, unless appropriate innovations are introduced in civic education and in complementary politi- cal institutional reforms, the likely consequence of the Inter- net Generation’s low level of political attentiveness will be a continuing decline in civic literacy. If we wish to boost the informed political participation of young citizens, the core challenge lying before us is that of identifying poli- cies that could prevent young people from becoming polit- ical dropouts by facilitating their developing the habits of political attentiveness. We should not be misled by dubious survey data and glowing depictions of “engaged citizenship” or cause-oriented repertoires to minimize the phenomenon and underestimate the challenge. We need to rely instead on indicators which place political knowledge – which can be tested - and attentiveness front and center. 67 68 HENRY MILNER Table 1 quent claim to the contrary, few of those who do not vote Reported turnout in European national elections [ESS round participate otherwise. An analysis of the results of a survey 1] of 14-year olds in the 24-nation IEA study found “no overall shift in post-materialist societies from voting to more active, Born since 1980 All issue-specific forms of participation. Rather. except in the Sweden 81 87 USA, teenagers in the most post-materialist countries, such Denmark 79 94 as the Nordic countries, predict [for themselves] the least di- Netherlands 75 86 versified range of activism” (Amnå et al., 2004, 35). Gener- Germany 73 85 alizing from cross-national data, Gidengil et al. (2004, 142) Austria 75 89 conclude that “the affluent and the highly educated are the Italy 76 89 most likely to sign petitions, join in boycotts, and attend Hungary 69 81 lawful demonstrations, just as they are more likely to vote, Greece 60 90 to become members of political parties, and to join interest Finland 55 82 groups.” Belgium 54 85 Hence declining turnout reflects declining political partic- Norway 50 84 ipation. Table 1 compares reported voting among young vot- Ireland 42 76 ers to that of the population as a whole in European countries. Portugal 41 72 The generational difference is only in part a matter of life cy- UK 41 72 cles, as is well illustrated in Figure 3 derived by Wass (2008) Spain 27 78 from the unusually detailed generational data on turnout in Switzerland 18 69 Finland. The important exception to the story of decline is the United States, which saw a reversal in the presidential elections of 2004 and 2008, in which, as displayed in Table Table 2 2, youth voting rose. However, to judge by the 2010 mid- Turnout in US federal elections: 1960–2008 terms, this tendency has come to an end. CIRCLE estimates that the 2010 youth (18–29) turnout rate was 20.9 %. Using Year Turnout of Turnout of the same method and the same adjusted tallies from past mid- voting-age 18–24 term elections, youth turnout was 23.5 % in 2006, 20.9 % in 1 population (%) year-olds (%) 2002, 23.6 % in 1998, and 23.9 % in 1994 . (reported) Turning to political knowledge, there are indications of a 2008 56.8* 48.5**** parallel overall decline (though it is much harder to identify 2004 55.3 41.9** knowledge level changes over time, since the difficulty of an 2000 51.3 32.3 indicator can vary). The data from the IEA student survey, 2 1996 49.1 32.4 despite its limitations , are telling in this regard. In 2009, 1992 55.1 42.8 140 000 grade 8 students took part in 38 countries surveyed. 1988 50.1 36.2 Fifteen of these took part in a previous IEA study of civic ed- 1984 53.1 40.8 ucation in 1999. As we can see in Table 3, in seven there has 1980 52.6 39.9 been a significant decline in civic content knowledge since 1976 53.6 42.2 1999; only in (Slovenia) has there been a significant increase. 1972 55.2 49.6 Data shows that in the United States political knowl- 1968 60.8 50.4*** edge is low, and there is a significant difference between the *Source 2008 election results: http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html. youngest group and everyone else. The data in response to **Source: US Census Bureau, current population surveys (CPS) 1968 to 2004 one question is especially unsettling, showing an inability of ***Prior to 1972, data are for those 21–24 years of age, except for those aged young Americans to identify the party that is more conser- 18 to 24 in Georgia and Kentucky, 20 to 24 in Hawaii, and 19 to 24 in Alaska. vative (60 %) – a term used habitually to characterize the ****CIRCLE The youth vote in 2008. Based on the current population survey data. 1 In predominantly Democratic (“blue”) states, youth turnout was 18.8 %. In predominantly Republican (“red”) states, turnout was 22.6 %. In competitive (“purple”) states, turnout was 23.6 %. In states targeted by several non-partisan youth voting groups, youth Democratic innovations that turnout was 21.4 %. In the states least targeted by those groups, the address – or at least do not ignore turnout was 20.5 %. – the potential political dropouts 2 To gain approval of the national representatives, one assumes, questions were eliminated that might appear to place a given coun- Political participation and political knowledge of try at a disadvantage, i.e., the factual questions. What remained in the end were items measuring the students’ familiarity with demo- the internet generation cratic concepts and skills in interpreting political communication. While those who vote may engage in other forms of po- Rather than testing factual knowledge, the questionnaire tested vo- litical engagement, the evidence is clear that, despite the fre- cabulary, logic, and appreciation for democratic principles. POLITICAL DROPOUTS 69 Figure 3. Turnout by generation in Finland from 1987 to 2003 (Wass, 2008) Table 4 National geographic-roper global geographic literacy sur- vey 2002 (age:18–24), overall quiz performance Country Number Sweden 40 Germany 38 Italy 38 France 34 Japan 31 Great Britain 28 Canada 27 U.S. 23 Mexico 21 Average number of correct answers (of 56) Table 3 Changes in civic content knowledge between 1999 and 2009 (ICCES) The effect of changing information media How are we to explain these cross national and genera- Country Mean Scale Mean Scale Differences tional differences? The most important factor, we should Score 2009 Score 1999 between 1999 note at the outset, is family background, one that we do not and 2009 examine per se, since this is a given impervious to policy Finland 109 108 1 choices. Young people who have grown up in homes where Slovenia 104 102 3 political and social issues were discussed, which correlates Chile 89 89 0 strongly with parental education, are far more likely to be po- Estonia 95 94 1 litically knowledgeable and involved. McIntosh et al. (2007; Lithuania 94 94 0 see also J. E. Kahne & Sporte, 2008) found that growing up Italy 100 101 -1 in such a family has a much stronger effect than even parents’ Switzerland 94 95 -2 income and occupation on adolescents’ ‘civic outcomes’. In Latvia 91 92 -1 a comparative study of three stable democracies and four Colombia 85 89 -4 Eastern European transitional ones, Flanagan et al. (1998) Norway 97 103 -5 found a strong and robust relationship between family values Greece 102 109 -7 and the public interest concerns of 12–18 year olds.
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