Analysis of the Potential of Sustainable Forest-Based Bioenergy for Climate Change Mitigation
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WORKING PAPER Analysis of the potential of sustainable forest-based bioenergy for climate change mitigation David Neil Bird Giuliana Zanchi Naomi Pena Petr Havlík Dorian Frieden Working Paper 59 Analysis of the potential of sustainable forest-based bioenergy for climate change mitigation David Neil Bird Giuliana Zanchi Naomi Pena Petr Havlík Dorian Frieden Working Paper 59 © 2011 Center for International Forestry Research All rights reserved Bird, N.D., Zanchi, G., Pena, N., Havlík, P. and Frieden, D. 2011 Analysis of the potential of sustainable forest-based bioenergy for climate change mitigation. Working Paper 59. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia Cover photo: Jeff Walker This paper has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union, under a project titled, ‘Bioenergy, sustainability and trade-offs: Can we avoid deforestation while promoting bioenergy?’ The objective of the project is to contribute to sustainable bioenergy development that benefits local people in developing countries, minimises negative impacts on local environments and rural livelihoods, and contributes to global climate change mitigation. The project will achieve this by producing and communicating policy relevant analyses that can inform government, corporate and civil society decision-making related to bioenergy development and its effects on forests and livelihoods. The project is managed by CIFOR and implemented in collaboration with the Council on Scientific and Industrial Research (South Africa), Joanneum Research (Austria), the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and the Stockholm Environment Institute. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union. CIFOR Jl. CIFOR, Situ Gede Bogor Barat 16115 Indonesia T +62 (251) 8622-622 F +62 (251) 8622-100 E [email protected] www.cifor.cgiar.org Any views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of CIFOR, the authors’ institutions or the financial sponsors of this publication Table of contents Abbreviations v Executive summary vi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Structure and scope of the working paper 1 2 State-of-the-art estimates on bioenergy potentials 2 3 Land use change emissions including dead wood, litter and soil organic carbon 5 3.1 Methodology 5 3.2 Results 10 3.3 Sensitivity to DWLSOC assumptions 11 4 Emissions from biofuels compared to emissions from fossil fuels 13 4.1 Sensitivity to Life Cycle Assessment assumptions 14 5 Accounting using alternative systems 15 5.1 Partial participation 18 6 Conclusions 21 References 23 Appendices 25 1 Sensitivity to land use change scenarios 25 2 Emission factors for life-cycle emissions from biofuels and fossil fuels 26 3 Combustion emission factors for biofuels and fossil fuels 26 List of figures and tables Figures 1 Ranges of biomass potential of different biomass sources and years 2 2 Regional distribution of reported global bioenergy potentials 3 3 Estimates of emissions from land use change by 2020 due to biofuels from various studies 6 4 Estimated cumulative afforestation and deforestation and net forest area changes caused by future biofuel production, 2000–2030, baseline scenario, agriland option 6 5 Estimated cumulative net emissions from living biomass due to land use change caused by biofuels, 2000–2030, baseline scenario, agriland option 7 6 Map of the ecological zones from IPCC 2006 (A) and map of the regions of the GLOBIOM model (B) 9 7 Stand-based model emissions from DWLSOC: example of deforestation in Latin America 10 8 Estimated cumulative emissions from all biomass due to land use change caused by biofuels, 2000–2030, baseline scenario, agriland option 10 9 Contribution of different carbon pools to overall emissions from land use change when low (A) or high (B) default values for dead wood, litter and soil are selected, baseline scenario, agriland option 11 10 Cumulative emissions from fossil fuels and biofuels without DWLSOC, baseline scenario, agriland option 13 11 Cumulative emissions from fossil fuels and biofuels with DWLSOC, baseline scenario, agriland option 14 12 Sensitivity of cumulative emissions from fossil fuels and biofuels (with DWLSOC) to variability in LCA emission factors, baseline scenario, agriland option 14 13 Emissions by region under different accounting systems. baseline scenario, agriland option 17 14 Sensitivity of cumulative emissions from fossil fuels and biofuels with DWLSOC to different scenarios 25 Tables 1 Total cumulative emissions caused by biofuels in 2030 by region under different accounting systems 16 2 Cumulative emissions from land use change caused by biofuel production 19 3 Cumulative emissions caused by biofuels in 2030 by region under different accounting systems 20 Abbreviations ABCS Aboveground and belowground biomass carbon stock dLUC Direct land use change DWLSOC Dead wood, litter and soil organic carbon—the three carbon pools of non-living biomass in an ecosystem GHG Greenhouse gas IEA International Energy Agency iLUC Indirect land use change IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LCA Life cycle assessment LUC Land use change POUR Point of uptake and release accounting approach REDD Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2006 IPCC Guidelines 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories EU Renewable Energy Directive Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC SOC Soil orgranic carbon Executive summary This paper is part of the Europe Aid Project the adoption of technology to create liquid biofuels ‘Bioenergy, sustainability and trade-offs: Can we from cellulosic material (second generation biofuels). avoid deforestation while promoting bioenergy?’ The This conclusion is beyond the scope of our analysis, purpose of the research was to create an improved but we restate it here so that our conclusions can be analysis of the potential of sustainable forest-based viewed with the right perspective. bioenergy for climate change mitigation. Nevertheless, including DWLSOC in the estimate of To do so, the authors have improved on an existing emissions from the adoption of biofuels is important. estimate of land use change and greenhouse gas The significance is directly related to the amount of emissions from biofuels from Havlík et al. (2011). deforestation predicted by the LUC model. We found That study assessed all land use changes (direct and that including DWLSOC increased greenhouse indirect) that will occur in the future as a result of gas emissions from biofuels by 21%. This result is including biofuels in the market demand for land. relatively sensitive to the parameters used to describe The land use changes (LUCs) caused by biofuels, the DWLSOC dynamics, primarily because the and the greenhouse gas emissions connected to these parameters are not well known (usually ± 50%). On changes, are estimated in the study by projecting land the other hand, even though emissions from the non- use changes under scenarios that include biofuels LUC component are quite substantial—about 25% (first generation, second generation, or a mixture) of total emissions—the non-LUC parameters are and a no-biofuels scenario. The impact of biofuels in more accurate than the DWLSOC parameters. The terms of land use change emissions is assessed as the total cumulative emissions are less sensitive to this difference between biofuel scenarios and non-biofuel uncertainty. scenario. On the topic of accounting approaches, we reiterate This paper improves the estimates from Havlík et that the approach currently adopted by the IPCC al. by: and international community does not allocate • Adding emissions from changes of dead wood, emissions from the combustion of bioenergy in the litter and soil organic carbon (DWLSOC) to the energy sector. Rather, emissions from bioenergy are emissions estimate for live biomass; included in the land use sector if the bioenergy causes • Adding a sensitivity analysis of emissions to both decreases of carbon stocks. As a result, this approach: the assumed DWLSOC carbon stocks and life • Does not properly allocate emissions to the cycle assessment of the non-LUC emissions; region in which they occur; and • Investigating different options for accounting for • Captures the true emissions from the use of the emissions from biofuels; and biofuels very poorly, if only Annex I countries • Investigating the timing of emissions from participate in an accounting target. biofuels in comparison to the emissions from fossil fuels by presenting time series rather than There are alternatives such as ‘point-of-uptake and cumulative emissions over a given time frame. release’, which perform these two tasks better. It is clear from Havlík et al. that the emissions from Perhaps our most striking result is that emissions biofuels are dominated by the assumed technology from the adoption of biofuels in the Havlík model adoption scenario. The Havlík study found that the ‘baseline’ scenario (60% first generation, 40% second emissions from biofuels can vary by more than an generation) are more than the emissions from the order of magnitude depending on assumptions about fossil fuels that they displace, even though bioenergy Analysis of the potential of sustainable forest-based bioenergy for climate change mitigation vii is carbon neutral in the long term. This result occurs with a ‘payback’ period. If the growth of biofuel only if one analyses the timing of emissions and consumption is large, the year-over-year emissions not the life-cycle emissions. It occurs because every from biofuels may always be more than the fossil addition of biofuels causes an associated emission fuels they are intended to displace. 1. Introduction Current climate mitigation policies are likely to models have been developed that can assess the become a strong driver of increased demand for impact of different bioenergy use projections on land renewable energy sources and particularly for use, and these are continuously improved.