The Relationship Between AP® Exam Performance and College Outcomes
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RESEaRch REpoRt 2009-4 The Relationship Between AP® Exam Performance and College Outcomes By Krista D. Mattern, Emily J. Shaw, and Xinhui Xiong VALIDITY College Board Research Report No. 2009-4 The Relationship Between AP® Exam Perfomance and College Outcomes Krista D. Mattern, Emily J. Shaw, and Xinhui Xiong The College Board, New York, 2009 Krista D. Mattern is an associate research scientist at the College Board. Emily J. Shaw is an assistant research scientist at the College Board Xinhui Xiong was a graduate student intern at the College Board. Researchers are encouraged to freely express their professional judgment. Therefore, points of view or opinions stated in College Board Reports do not necessarily represent official College Board position or policy. About the College Board The College Board is a mission-driven not-for-profit organization that connects students to college success and opportunity. Founded in 1900, the College Board was created to expand access to higher education. Today, the membership association is made up of more than 5,900 of the world’s leading educational institutions and is dedicated to promoting excellence and equity in education. Each year, the College Board helps more than seven million students prepare for a successful transition to college through programs and services in college readiness and college success — including the SAT® and the Advanced Placement Program®. The organization also serves the education community through research and advocacy on behalf of students, educators and schools. For further information, visit www.collegeboard.org. © 2009 The College Board. College Board, Advanced Placement Program, AP, SAT and the acorn logo are registered trademarks of the College Board. inspiring minds and SAT Reasoning Test are trademarks owned by the College Board. PSAT/NMSQT is a registered trademark of the College Board and National Merit Scholarship Corporation. All other products and services may be trademarks of their respective owners. Visit the College Board on the Web: www.collegeboard.org. Printed in the United States of America. Contents Discussion . .12 Future Research . .13 Abstract . .1 Conclusion . .13 The Relationship Between AP® Performance and College Outcomes . .1 References . .13 Research on AP Performance and College Success . .1 Appendix . .15 Method . .2 Tables Sample . .2 1. Percentages of the Three AP Performance Groups by AP Exam . 2 Measures . .2 2. Sample Size (%) of AP English Language Performance Groups by Demographic AP Scores . .2 Characteristics . 3 SAT® Scores . .3 3. Descriptive Statistics of Study Variables by AP English Language Performance Groups . 4 SAT Questionnaire . .3 4. Paired Contrasts for AP English Language First-Year College GPA . .3 Performance Groups . 4 Retention to the Second Year . .3 5. Paired Contrasts for AP English Language Performance Groups with SAT and HSGPA Institutional Selectivity . .3 as Covariates . 5 Analyses and Results . .3 6. Sample Size (%) of AP Biology Performance Groups by Demographic Characteristics . 6 AP English Language . .3 7. Descriptive Statistics of Study Variables by AP Descriptive Statistics . .3 Biology Performance Groups . 6 Predictive Validity . .4 8. Paired Contrasts for AP Biology Performance Groups . 7 AP Biology . .6 9. Paired Contrasts for AP Biology Performance Descriptive Statistics . .6 Groups with SAT and HSGPA as Covariates . 7 10. Sample Size (%) of the AP Calculus Performance Predictive Validity . .6 Groups by Demographic Characteristics . 8 AP Calculus . .8 11. Descriptive Statistics of Study Variables by AP Calculus Performance Groups . 8 Descriptive Statistics . .8 12. Paired Contrasts for AP Calculus Performance Predictive Validity . .8 Groups . 9 AP U .S . History . 10 13. Paired Contrasts for AP Calculus Performance Groups with SAT and HSGPA as Covariates . 9 Descriptive Statistics . 10 14. Sample Size (%) of AP U.S. History Performance Predictive Validity . 11 Groups by Demographic Characteristics . 10 15. Descriptive Statistics of Study Variables by AP U.S. History Performance Groups . 10 16. Paired Contrasts for AP U.S. History Performance Groups . 11 17. Paired Contrasts for AP U.S. History Performance Groups with SAT and HSGPA as Covariates . 11 18. Summary of All Paired Contrasts for the AP Performance Groups Across Four High-Volume AP Exams with SAT and HSGPA Included as Covariates . 12 A1. Percentage of Institutions in Sample by Key Variables (N = 99) . 15 Abstract Research on AP This study focused on the relationship between students’ Advanced Placement Program® (AP®) performance Performance and in AP English Language, Biology, Calculus, and U.S. History, and their subsequent college success. For each College Success AP Exam studied, students were divided into three groups according to their AP Exam performance (no AP Given the purpose of the AP Program, it is not surprising Exam taken, score of 1 or 2, and a score of 3 or higher). that the majority of AP validity research has focused Subsequent college success was measured by students’ on the relationship between AP Exam performance first-year college grade point average (FYGPA), retention and course placement (e.g., Burnham & Hewitt, 1971; to the second year, and institutional selectivity. Results Dodd, Fitzpatrick, De Ayala, & Jennings, 2002; Morgan indicated that, even after controlling for students’ SAT® & Crone, 1993; Morgan & Ramist, 1998). The results scores and high school grade point average (HSGPA) as have generally found support for the AP Program in that measures of prior academic performance, students with students who perform well on an AP Exam (i.e., earn a an AP score of 3 or higher outperformed the other two score of 3, 4, or 5) and receive course credit for the exam groups. Additionally, students with an AP score of 1 or 2 tend to outperform nonexempt students in subsequent tended to outperform students with no AP scores except courses, even after controlling for academic preparedness in terms of FYGPA. The implications are discussed. (e.g., standardized test scores, high school GPA). Additional AP research has examined more general outcomes. For example, a study by Willingham and Morris (1986) found that students who took an AP Exam, The Relationship regardless of performance, were more likely to earn a B ® average during their first year of college as compared to Between AP students who did not take any AP Exams. This was true even after controlling for academic ability. Furthermore, Performance and a study by Dougherty, Mellor, and Jian (2006) found that students who performed well (i.e., earned a score of 3 or College Outcomes higher) on at least one AP Exam in English, mathematics, science, or social studies were more likely to graduate The Advanced Placement Program, administered by the from college in five years as compared to students who College Board since 1955, offers rigorous, college-level took no AP Exams, who received a score of 1 or 2, or courses and assessments at high schools across the United who took an AP course but not the corresponding exam. States and the world. The AP Program currently has Additionally, students who scored a 1 or 2 graduated at course descriptions for more than 30 courses, including a higher rate than the “No AP” group. Again, this was Studio Art, Biology, and Calculus, and offers students true even after controlling for academic ability and other a unique opportunity to take more advanced courses student or school characteristics. during high school. Furthermore, each course has an Analyzing University of California data, Geiser end-of-year exam. AP Exams are criterion-referenced and and Santelices (2004) examined both the impact of scored from 1 through 5, with a 5 representing a score of the number of AP or honor courses students took in “extremely well-qualified.” The AP Program is viewed high school as well as performance on AP Exams while as a “cooperative educational endeavor” among high controlling for numerous student characteristics, such schools, colleges, and universities. Students who perform as their unweighted HSGPA, SAT scores, SAT Subject well on the exam (i.e., receive a score of 3 or higher) may Test scores, and parental education. They found that the receive college credit or course exemption, depending on number of AP or honors courses taken was unrelated the AP policies of the college or university they attend. to college performance as measured by second-year Consequently, there has been a great deal of research GPA; however, exam performance remained a significant devoted to examining AP performance and subsequent predictor. They concluded that mere participation in college outcomes (Ewing, 2006). rigorous high school courses is not a valid indicator of a student’s likelihood of college success, but performance on the AP Exam is a valid indicator of success. Recently, Hargrove, Godin, and Dodd (2008) examined numerous college outcomes for AP and non-AP Texas high school students who went on to attend public colleges and universities in Texas. After matching these 1 students in terms of SAT scores and free or reduced-price institutional characteristics of the colleges and lunch (FRLP) participation, they found that students who universities. Students in the sample who did not have took an AP course and exam outperformed students who an FYGPA, retention information, scores on the revised took only the course or who did not participate in the SAT, or a valid HSGPA from the SAT Questionnaire were AP Program in terms of higher first- and fourth-year excluded from the analyses. Additionally, 11 institutions college GPAs, and had higher four-year graduation rates. were removed from the sample for the following reasons: Additionally, comparing students who took an AP Exam, (1) four institutions did not provide any retention data; higher AP scores were generally associated with higher (2) six institutions used a course grading scale that college grades. exceeded 4.00; and (3) one institution did not have The purpose of the current study is to build on the complete information about its institutional selectivity as extant body of research highlighting the efficacy of the reported on the Annual Survey of Colleges; therefore, the AP Program.