Research Notes Office of Research and Development RN-02, November 1997 The Relationship of PSAT/NMSQT Scores and AP® Examination Grades he PSAT/NMSQT, which measures devel- Recent analyses have shown that student per- oped verbal and quantitative reasoning, as formance on the PSAT/NMSQT can be useful in Twell as writing skills generally associated identifying additional students who may be suc- with academic achievement in college, is adminis- cessful in AP courses. PSAT/NMSQT scores can tered each October to nearly two million students, identify students who may not have been initially the vast majority of whom are high school juniors considered for an AP course through teacher or and sophomores. PSAT/NMSQT information has self-nomination or other local procedures. For been used by high school counselors to assist in many AP courses, students with moderate scores advising students in college planning, high school on the PSAT/NMSQT have a high probability of suc- course selection, and for scholarship awards. In- cess on the examinations. For example, a majority formation from the PSAT/NMSQT can also be very of students with PSAT/NMSQT verbal scores of useful for high schools in identifying additional 46–50 received grades of 3 or above on nearly all of students who may be successful in Advanced the 29 AP Examinations studied, while over one- Placement courses, and assisting schools in deter- third of students with scores of 41–45 achieved mining whether to offer additional Advanced grades of 3 or above on five AP Examinations. Placement courses. There are substantial variations across AP subjects that must be considered. For example, a Using the PSAT/NMSQT to smaller proportion of students with PSAT/NMSQT Identify Additional Students mathematics scores below 56 attained scores of 3 Who May Be Successful in AP or above on AP Physics and Chemistry Examina- High schools that offer Advanced Placement (AP) tions than for most other AP Exams, while a larger courses are confronted with the need to identify stu- proportion of students with PSAT/NMSQT verbal dents who may be successful in these courses. As scores of 41 and above reached grades of 3 or college-level courses, AP courses are intended for higher on AP Art History, Psychology, and English students who have already completed relevant sec- Literature Examinations. ondary school work in the subject and have the skills and motivation to complete college-level course Using the Tables in the Report work during their high school studies. Teacher rec- The tables in this report provide the proportion of ommendations, self-nomination, previous courses students attaining grades of 3 or more and 4 or completed, grades in relevant previous high school more on each AP Examination across the range of courses, discussions with students, and scores on scores on the PSAT/NMSQT. The data in these achievement tests are successfully used to varying analyses: degrees by schools in identifying students for place- • Include all students who completed the new ment in AP courses. PSAT/NMSQT in November 1993 or 1994 and KEYWORDS However, such proce- subsequently completed an AP Examination PSAT/NMSQT dures may not identify in the spring of 1995 or 1996—records of AP all students who can po- over 659,825 separate AP Examinations for Advanced Placement tentially benefit from AP students completing the PSAT/NMSQT as Placement courses and be success- well as one or more AP Examinations. ful in those courses. • Use recentered PSAT/NMSQT scores. Research Notes • Include students who completed the AP Examinations. It is impossible to know how stu- PSAT/NMSQT one year prior to enrolling in dents would have performed on AP Examinations an AP course (about 70 percent of the sam- when they have not enrolled in AP courses. It is ple) as well as students who completed the quite likely that students who completed AP Exam- PSAT/NMSQT during the same year they inations differ in meaningful ways from students completed the AP Examination. In the for- who did not complete AP Examinations, even when mer case, there was about an 18-month du- they attain the same PSAT/NMSQT scores and com- ration between tests, while the gap was re- plete the same courses with equal proficiency. duced to six months in the latter situation. Therefore, these tables have not been developed • Demonstrate that while the relationships to provide the precise probability for an individual (correlation coefficients) were somewhat student’s attaining a specific AP Examination stronger for students taking both examina- grade, but rather to provide the probability of suc- tions during the same year, these correla- cess in AP courses for the group of students at- tions decreased only slightly for students taining PSAT/NMSQT scores within a given range. completing the PSAT/NMSQT a year prior to Nevertheless, students with moderate enrolling in AP courses. This finding in par- PSAT/NMSQT scores are typically successful when ticular demonstrated the utility of using completing many AP Examinations. Students who PSAT/NMSQT scores to assist in identifying have completed the prerequisite secondary potential students for AP courses. school courses and have not considered AP courses can be identified for further consideration by fac- PSAT/NMSQT scores can supplement existing ulty and counselors with the use of performance procedures used by schools to identify additional data from the PSAT/NMSQT. students who may be successful in specific AP To use these tables you would first find the courses, but should never be used as the sole, or appropriate AP Examination. Then you would de- even the primary, indicator. Schools should not es- termine which PSAT/NMSQT scale to use (verbal, tablish minimum “cut scores” on the PSAT/NMSQT mathematics, or V + M for biology only). Next, you or any other assessment for placing students into would identify students’ respective scores on the AP courses—such practices are a clear misuse of appropriate PSAT/NMSQT scale and find the pro- assessment scores. Faculty and counselors should portion expected to attain grades of 3 or more (or be cautious in using these tables. First, many stu- 4 or more if appropriate). This is clearly labeled dents with PSAT/NMSQT scores that place them at on the tables. Table 1 lists AP courses that use the the upper ranges of probable success (grades of 3 PSAT/NMSQT verbal scale, Table 2 lists AP courses or higher) for a specific AP Examination may not using the PSAT/NMSQT mathematics scale, and a have fulfilled the appropriate prerequisite courses separate table is provided for biology (Table 3), and would clearly be unprepared for some AP which combines both scales. There should be no courses. Second, student performance (grades, absolute rules for interpreting or using these ta- teacher recommendations) in previous courses in bles. For example, with U.S. History, you may use the content area as well as motivation and interest score ranges of 41–45, 46–50, or 51–55 to begin to will be key determinants of their success in AP identify potential students because at these points courses and must be considered. Third, the sample sizable numbers of students have received grades of students used in the analysis was restricted to of 3 or more in the past. Many students identified students who did complete an AP Examination. through this means may have already been con- That is, while the sample of students was quite sidered for AP U.S. History through other proce- large, it did not include the large number of dures already instituted in the school (e.g., PSAT/NMSQT test takers who do not complete any teacher recommendations). Yet the use of the Copyright © 1997 by College Entrance Examination Board. All rights reserved. College Board, AP, and the acorn logo are registered trademarks of the College Entrance Examination Board. Permission is hereby granted to any nonprofit organization or institution to reproduce this report in limited quantities for its own use, but not for sale, provided that the copyright notice be retained in all reproduced copies exactly as it appears in this publication. 2 Research Notes Course Selection Patterns in Math and Science* Exams that correlate best Exams that correlate best with PSAT/NMSQT Verbal with PSAT/NMSQT Math Art History Calculus AB Comparative Government and Politics Calculus BC English Language Chemistry English Literature Computer Science A European History Computer Science AB French Language Macroeconomics French Literature Microeconomics Latin Literature Music Latin Vergil Physics B Psychology Physics C: Mechanics Spanish Literature Physics C: Electricity & Magnetism U.S. Government and Politics U.S. History Exams that have no meaningful correlation with PSAT/NMSQT Exams that correlate best German Language with PSAT/NMSQT Verbal & Math Spanish Language Biology Studio Art: Design Studio Art: Drawing * In 1997, the PSAT/NMSQT introduced a writing skills section. Correlations with writing cannot be examined at this time because there are no operational data available on student performance. PSAT/NMSQT score range can help identify addi- subject for some examinations. The PSAT/NMSQT tional potential students who may be considered verbal scale correlates most strongly with student for the course. Counselors and teachers would performance on 13 AP Examinations in the human- need to determine if these students have had the ities, social sciences, and foreign language areas appropriate prerequisite courses and would also (see Table 4). The PSAT/NMSQT mathematics need to consider their performance in these scale correlates most strongly with 11 additional courses, as well as student interest and motiva- AP Examinations in mathematics, science, and mu- tion for completing a rigorous college-level AP sic. AP Biology correlates most strongly with com- course. In essence, these tables cannot provide bined scores across the verbal and mathematics one-stop shopping in curriculum planning, but can scales for the PSAT/NMSQT.