Electricity Ten Year Statement 2016
UK electricity transmission
NOVEMBER 2016 Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2016
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We are in the midst of an energy revolution. The economic landscape, developments in technology and consumer behaviour are changing at an unprecedented rate, creating more opportunities than ever for our industry.
Our Electricity Ten Year We will make appropriate Statement, along with our other transmission development System Operator publications, recommendations through our aims to encourage and inform Network Options Assessment (NOA). debate, leading to changes that The NOA aims to make sure that the ensure a secure, sustainable transmission system is continuously and affordable energy future. developed in a timely, economic and efficient way, providing value Your views, knowledge and insight for our customers. The NOA1, using have shaped the publication, helping the assessment results from ETYS us to better understand the future of 2015, recommended £28 million energy. Thank you for this valuable of development spend on future input over the past year. network reinforcements in 2016 to provide the required transmission Now our 2016 analysis is complete, capabilities. The results from ETYS we have been able to look holistically 2016 will feed into NOA2 report, at the results. They point to some which we will publish in January 2017. important themes and messages. Through our NOA, we continue to From our future energy scenarios monitor demand and make sure we continue to see increasing north- the transmission network does not to-south transmission flows across put demand security at risk due to Scotland and much of northern insufficient network capacity. England to supply southern demand. This is largely influenced by new I hope that you find this document, low-carbon generation in the north, along with our other System Operator together with fossil fuelled plant publications, useful as a catalyst for closures. Increasing interconnector wider debate. For more information activity is also putting additional about all our publications, please see stress on the southern part of the page 3. network. These developments mean we see the need to reinforce Please share your views with us; the transmission system in a timely, you can find details of how to economic and efficient way. contact us on our website www.nationalgrid.com/etys
Richard Smith Head of Network Capability (Electricity) Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2016 02
Contents
Executive summary...... 03 The way forward...... 106 Key messages ...... 05 4.1 Continuous development...... 106 Introduction ...... 08 4.2 Improving your experience...... 108 1.1 ETYS and the NOA...... 09 1.2 ETYS-NOA and TYNDP ...... 10 1.3 ETYS and the SOF...... 11 1.4 Improving your experience...... 12
Appendices overview...... 110 Meet the team...... 112 Glossary...... 114 Network development inputs...... 14 2.1 Future energy scenarios...... 15 2.2 Applying the future energy scenarios in system planning...... 16 2.2.1 Application of demand data...... 16 2.2.2 Application of generation data...... 16 2.2.2a Security criterion...... 17 2.2.2b Economy criterion...... 18 2.3 Interconnector information...... 19
The electricity transmission network...... 24 3.1 Introduction...... 24 3.2 NETS background...... 25 3.3 NETS boundaries...... 26 3.4 Network capability and requirements by region: Scottish boundaries...... 31 3.5 Network capability and requirements by region: Northern boundaries...... 54 3.6 Network capability and requirements by region: Western boundaries...... 66 3.7 Network capability and requirements by region: Eastern boundaries...... 84 3.8 Network capability and requirements by region: Southern boundaries...... 92 3.9 Year-round capability...... 103 Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2016 03
Executive summary
National Grid has an important role to play in leading the energy debate across our industry and working with you to make sure that together we secure our shared energy future.
As System Operator (SO), we are perfectly We build our long-term view of the gas and placed as an enabler, informer and facilitator. electricity transmission capability and operability The SO publications that we produce every in our Future Energy Scenarios (FES), Ten Year year are intended to be a catalyst for debate, Statements (ETYS and GTYS), Network Options decision making and change. Assessment (NOA), gas Future Operability Planning (FOP) and electricity System The starting point for our flagship publications Operability Framework (SOF) publications. is the Future Energy Scenarios (FES). The FES To help shape these publications, we seek is published every year and involves input from your views and share information across the stakeholders from across the energy industry. energy industry that can inform debate.
These scenarios are based on the energy The Gas Ten Year Statement (GTYS) describes trilemma (security of supply, sustainability in detail what and where entry and exit capacity and affordability) and provide supply and is available on the gas National Transmission demand projections out to 2050. We use these System (NTS). The GTYS provides an update scenarios to inform the energy industry about on projects we are currently working on. It also network analysis and the investment we are provides our view of the capability requirements planning, for the benefit of our customers. and network development decisions that will be required for the NTS over the next ten For short-term challenges around gas and years. If you are interested in finding out more electricity transmission, we produce the about the longer-term view of gas capability Summer and Winter Outlook Reports every and operability, please consider reading six months. We publish them ahead of each our Future Energy Scenarios (FES), and gas season to provide a view of gas and electricity Future Operability Planning (FOP) publications. supply and demand for the coming summer or winter. These publications are designed to The Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS) tests support and inform your business planning the FES against models of the GB National activities and are complemented by summer Electricity Transmission System (NETS) to and winter consultations and reports. identify potential transmission requirements. If you are interested in finding out about the network investment recommendations that we believe will meet these requirements across the GB electricity transmission network, please consider reading Network Options Assessment (NOA). You can find out more about the longer- term view of electricity capability and operability by reading our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) and System Operability Framework (SOF) publications. Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2016 04
Executive summary
The Network Options Assessment (NOA) The System Operability Framework (SOF) builds upon the future capacity requirements uses the Future Energy Scenarios to examine described in ETYS and presents the network future requirements for the operability of GB investment recommendations that we electricity networks. It describes developments believe will meet these requirements across in operational needs and provides information the GB electricity transmission network. that can help towards developing new If you are interested in finding out more technology, codes and solutions that improve about electricity capability and operability, system operability. If you are interested please consider reading our Future Energy in finding out more about the longer-term Scenarios (FES), Electricity Ten Year view of electricity capability and operability, Statement (ETYS), and System Operability please consider reading our Future Energy Framework (SOF) publications. Scenarios (FES), Electricity Ten Year Statements (ETYS) and Network Options Our gas Future Operability Planning (FOP) Assessment (NOA) publications. publication describes how changing requirements affect the future capability of the NTS out to 2050. It also considers how these requirements may affect NTS operation and our processes. The FOP may highlight a need to change the way we respond to you or other market signals. This, in turn, may lead us to modify our operational processes and decision making. This publication helps to make sure we continue to maintain a resilient, safe and secure NTS now and into the future. If you are interested in finding out more about the longer-term view of gas capability and operability, please consider reading our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) and Gas Ten Year Statement (GTYS). Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2016 05
Key messages
Using the 2016 future energy scenarios, we have assessed the National Electricity Transmission System’s (NETS’s) present boundary capabilities against their future requirements. Below, we’ve provided a summary of the main findings from our analysis.
1. In the years to come, the NETS will 2. The potential network capacity deficits potentially face network capacity identified in the ETYS 2016 will undergo deficits on a number of its boundary the NOA process. From this, the SO regions due to the following factors: preferred options and investment An increasing amount of large wind recommendations will be published in generation connecting to the Scottish January 2017, in the NOA2 report. This networks, consequentially increasing process will be similar to the last NOA transfer requirements from Scotland process, NOA1, which used the results into England. from the ETYS 2015: Large growth in low carbon generation For NOA1, we assessed more than and interconnectors in the northern seventy Great Britain transmission system England region, consequentially investment options. Of these, thirteen increasing export requirements into were identified through the NOA1 cost– the English Midlands. benefit analysis as requiring a decision Reducing conventional generation in 2016. We recommended proceeding capacity in the Midlands, particularly with developing eight and delaying five the West Midlands, compared with of these investments. the present level. Therefore, the West We considered what was really necessary Midlands will have to import more power to invest. As a result of our decision we from distant regions. recommended delaying five projects that Unprecedented growth in generation may have committed £33 million of capital coming from offshore wind on the east expenditure in 2016. coast, connecting to the East Anglia region. Transfer of power from this region 3. Given the changing energy landscape to the wider southern NETS will risk in which fossil fuelled generation stressing this region of the network; and closures are leading to increased Interconnections coming in and placing reliance on intermittent generation, increased stress on the southern English we’re ensuring the NETS continues network when these interconnectors facilitate demand security: export power out of Great Britain. We have investigated future situations when intermittent generation may not be available, so that we can make sure that the transmission network does not put demand supply at risk due to insufficient network capacity. We have found that increased south-to-north network capacity could be required to meet all the demand in northern England and Scotland. Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2016 06 Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2016 07 Chapter one
Introduction 08 Chapter one Introduction transmission network. associated with the future planning of the we’re doing to look at technical challenges work year-round the describes that study case changes. For example, we have included a further made have 2016 aresult, as and, April in publication the on views your We sought feedback. to your response in it developing to continue want we and We publish it for you, our stakeholders, (the TO business within National Grid). Wales and England in and Transmission), SP and Transmission (SHE Scotland in (TOs) with input from the Transmission Owners (SO), Operator System GB the as role our in ETYS fifth our is This (NOA) Assessment Options that inform the Network the requirements identify itwe through because planning process network annual Transmission of our part (NETS). System isasignificant This (GB) Electricity National Britain power the on Great transfer of bulk capability the current and requirements transmission Grid’s (SO) view Operator the System the future as about The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201608 Electricity TenElectricity Year (ETYS) Statement , which we produce process. process.
expectation for the ETYS your meet we’ve made changes the We hope these documents complement each other. have included information to explain how clearly Options (NOA) Assessment Network System Framework Operability (SOF) editions into two standalone documents (the ETYS previous of split the following Also, presents National National presents . report) we and the the and
Chapter one
findings in order in findings 2015. This recommended recommended 2 helps us communicate report, due in January and the European-wide European-wide the and (ITPR) initiative. (ITPR) 1 report makes recommendations on recommendations report makes also considers arrangements for for arrangements considers also NOA NOA ETYS-NOA on what we expect see, to as the to future capability. transfer power bulk of requirements The options develop to the NETS basedon requirements shown in ETYS will use this year’s ETYS 2017, presentto updated recommendations. In summary, the ETYS included a recommended investment of £28 £28 of recommended investment a included million for NETS development projects that have a total projected value of £2.2 billion over delaying further recommended It lifetime. their five projects which may have committed £33 million of spend according in 2016 to regret’ least year scenario-based ‘single our analysis. The NOA2 the SO’s preferredthe SO’s investment options meet to requirements. transfer future the The In March this year the NOA1 the development of cross-border (including cross-border of development the Europe) mainland with interconnections we So, networks. transmission electricity between relationship the consider to need the transmission development described in the the in described development transmission ten-year network development plan (TYNDP). . is the
report, report, report. This report. report being the the report being has changed following Ofgem’s Integrated has changed Ofgem’s following directly feed into the analysis and NOA the complements the NOA the complements in early July this The year. ETYS ETYS report reviews a variety of options for
ETYS FES www.ofgem.gov.uk/electricity/transmission-networks/integrated-transmission-planning-and-regulation www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Future-of-Energy/Network-Options-Assessment/ Transmission Planning and RegulationTransmission 1 2 Also in our role we as assess SO, and about recommendations appropriate make reinforcing the NETS. This is so we can meet our customers’ requirements in an economic and efficientWe do this way. in three stages. The first stage starts with establishing the future in published electricity, of scenarios energy the second stage, with the NOA The final stage. The 1.1 ETYS relationship ensures the development of of development the ensures relationship essential is which time, right the at projects for the long-term planning of the NETS. The NOA developing the network meet to the range of potential requirements presented inthe ETYS 09 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity NETS future about information because capability current described and requirements in the ETYS required produce to the NOA Its new purpose is to publish information about information expected publish purpose is to new Its transmission capability requirements GB the NETS. of Chapter one Introduction ETYS ETYS the with compared used, options reinforcement and data) visions scenario data (termed as ENTSO-E’s energy the of respect in lag time atwo-year be always will there Therefore, years. two every updated The submitted information and analysis is conducted by European regional groups. being analysis the with projects pan-European on focuses TYNDP The annually. produced ETYS years, whereas the ETYS two every produced is TYNDP the Firstly, important differences that separate them. are there networks, energy of future the and ETYS-NOA Although TYNDP 2016. publication next The isdue in December years. two every the community-wide TYNDP produces (ENTSO-E) Transmission for Electricity Operators System of out how sets Network regulation The the European (EC) with Regulation published in accordance 714/2009. Ten-YearThe is Development Network Plan (TYNDP) ETYS 1.2 Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201610
- NOA and TYNDP and and and and NOA NOA all highlight . are are
http://tyndp.entsoe.eu/ at TYNDP the about information more You find can benefits. coupling market or supply of security meet additional criteria of the TYNDP, such as NOA from option preferred chosen the includes projects of list TYNDP, the the In document. each within Finally, projects different for qualify inclusion , as well as other projects that that projects other as well , as
Chapter one
rely on Energy the Future would be able to would to develop credible generation and generation credible develop to andthe SOF Scenarios to used These are backgrounds. demand influence their respective analyses. As a common point, both however, the ETYS for the first the for time as a 3 considers considers
. This meant SOF the that SOF evaluates the NETS’s and the
focuses on evaluating the operability of www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Future-of-Energy/System-Operability-Framework/ 3 Power systems are designed be to both (i.e. capable and stable) (i.e. operable adequate) transmit to power consumers. to The operability of power systems is a complex characteristics technology generator of function and NETS characteristics. The SOF In 2015, we produced SOF the we 2015, In ETYS how determining in function complex this operable the power system will be in light of generation of distribution and mix changing the the while So NETS. the across technologies SOF the NETS, the ETYS power. transmit capability to 1.3 11 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity provide a more focused andprovide about detailed view long-term operabilitythe GB the NETS. of standalone document. Previously, it had been as published standalone document. Previously, part ETYS the of Chapter one Introduction details about current and future generation view can you tool, this Through Tool (CCIT). developed a Customer Connection Interface So, we information. user-friendly to relevant, access quick and easy wanted You you us told publications, the NOA ETYS to the we’ve made changes the from benefit will you We hope to sent our ETYS correspondence well as from as customer seminars, at our electricity youfeedback from face-to-face through interactions developing the ETYS We have keen been to your hear views we as continue Improving your experience 1.4 Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201612
, FES 2016 and its sister 2016 sister its and and SOF and . This year,. This we were to able gather . www.nationalgrid.com/etys at accessed be can tool This future. the continues complementing the ETYS it that sure make can we so stages, in it in England and Wales. We are developing information about the substations we manage (published alongside the ETYS tool the of version latest The NETS. the in connections, sites and development times email address. email 2016) provides 2016) provides . in in
Chapter two Network development inputs development inputs Network two Chapter Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201613 14 Chapter two Network development inputs development inputs Network organisations, up by 129 since last year. last by 129 up since organisations, 362 year, consulted have we This our stakeholder engagement activities. improve and to evolve continued We have scenarios. our of development the to influence it use and received have we feedback the analyse We then workshops, webinars and bilateral meetings. involved in a way that suits them, including to get stakeholders our for opportunity an Our various engagement activities provide collection and stakeholder engagement activity. data of amount asignificant following created been have 2016 Our scenarios beyond. and stakeholders from across the energy sector energy scenarios with the involvement of our future credible to produce able We are planning. for our NETS shaping abasis as scenarios we these use planning standard, the industry applying envelope by Then, of power generation. and demand apotential which present scenarios, energy our future We toconnect the network. do this by initially analysing (active demand that may reactive) and generation and the potential powerfuture understand we first must Transmission Electricity the (NETS) on National System To needed requirements transmission the future identify Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201614
the scenarios described in the FES the in described scenarios the out detailed analysis and modelling to produce carried we this, Following account. into views of range awide taken had we that comfort sufficient with provided was it us told Ofgem review, its 2016. Following January in to Ofgem We submitted our stakeholder feedback report year. this scenarios to our changes significant no are 2016 there and to FES approach our reaffirmed has This FES the in year on year consistency see to want they that us told stakeholders our was scenarios highly positive. Overwhelmingly 2015 our on received we feedback the of Most
.
.
Chapter two
More focus More is a world where economic is a world where policy . 1 world. Choices, for residential consumers residential for Choices, world. develop. do policies and technologies new of This results in some progress towards decarbonisation but at a slower pace. as quickly as desired a low-emissions to and businesses, are restricted, yet a range interventions and innovation are both reducing in effective and ambitious focus The emissions. gas greenhouse Progression Slow ProgressionSlow transition to ability society’s limit conditions Gone Green Gone Green Gone goals, environmental long-term on high levels of prosperity and advanced the that ensure harmonisation European 2050 carbon reduction target is achieved. Figure 2.1 providesFigure an overview 2.1 of each of the scenarios. can find You more information Energy Scenariosabout Future the 2016 on our website
Green ambition Green
, .
is a market-driven is a world where business where world a is Slow Progression Slow , Less focus focus Less and Power Consumer energy is used. is energy as usual activities prevail. Society is focused security on concentrating short-term, the on of supply and affordability over and above green ambition. Traditional sources of gas dominate, to electricityand continue how altering innovation little with No Progression No world. High levels of prosperity allow for limited with innovation, and investment high technologies New intervention. government are prevalent and focus on the desires of consumers over and above emissions reductions. Progression No Consumer Power Consumer Power Consumer
Gone Green Gone
available money Prosperity
Less money money Less More More www.fes.nationalgrid.com/fes-document/ 15 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity 1 Figure 2.1 The 2016 scenario matrix Our 2016 scenariosOur 2016 are once again an evolution from the previous have We continued year. useto the 2X2 matrix, with axes of ‘green our structure to ‘prosperity’ and ambition’ scenarios. have We also continued using the names 2.1 energy scenariosFuture No Progression No Chapter two Network development inputs development inputs Network In this section we howIn this section describe we do this. performance. its assess and the network analyse can that we so models to network data the NETS scenario at level. ahigh scenarios We energy future the apply in this chapter we the contentEarlier of discussed the planning system in scenarios the energy future Applying 2.2 2 Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201616 there is more detail about it in Chapter 3. 3. Chapter in it about detail more is there – data demand and generation on based to form the system capability requirement use we that method economy) and (security Standard (SQSS) Supply of Quality and Security NETS The data Application of generation 2.2.2 the planning analysis, we group data by zones To facilitate demand. peak (ACS) spell cold backgrounds provide us with forecast average The future energy scenarios demand Application data of demand 2.2.1 www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/electricity-codes/sqss/the-sqss/ 2 outlines the dual criteria
meet national ACS peak demand. to assessment our in applied is data generation the how on focus we Here the NETS is represented. national electrical demand connected to the all way This topology. network the and according to their distribution geographic
Chapter two
Fuel type (new) thermal Gas (new) Storage operation per plant Existing tranche hydro and calculation storage pumped existing and 4 turbines Gas 11 Rank 8 9 10 but market intelligence suggests it may may rankings plant So future). the in return be revised, make to them more realistic for purposes. planning For future plant, we apply appropriate ranks, by considering the fuel type of the unit. assume We that low-carbon plant is more likely operate to as baseload, and that new thermal plant is likely be to more efficient thanexisting thermal generation so we give it a higher ranking. The ranking order we use determine to the operation of future plant is shown in table 2.1. For existing generation, we apply appropriate appropriate apply we generation, existing For ranks, looking by at how the unit operated periods winter two previous the during (beginning of December the to end of January). The method described for ordering plant in terms of operational history is supported by (for example, a plant that has been mothballed our experiential judgement and market market and judgement experiential our intelligence. For example, a plant may have achieved a low ranking based on the previous winter’s operational data but it could be that this was down a unique to set of circumstances that are unlikely be to repeated in the future
Biomass Nuclear (new) Nuclear Hydro tranche 2 Hydro tranche 3 (existing) Nuclear CCS Fuel type Hydro tranche 1
6 7 3 4 5 1 2 Rank Table 2.1 Table Ranking order The security criterion requires us ensure to that scenario generation dispatchable NETS’s the conventional from comes predominantly dispatch generation This plant. generation scenario, according the to SQSS, is necessary assessto whether the NETS is capable of intermittent when times at demand supplying interconnectors and generation low-carbon 2.2.2a Security criterion are not available. set up the securityTo generation scenario, we start checking by if we need trim to the total below to NETS the to connected generation of the total ACS demand.120% is The 120% the amount determined appropriate ensure to adequate generation margin. trim We the total generation capacity applying by 120% to a ranking order help to identify the generation units that are most likely operate to and meet ACS peak100% demand and those which are most likely provide to reserve. 20% applyWe the ranking order considering both future and existing generation. 17 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter two Network development inputs development inputs Network in the most economic and efficient way. efficient and economic most the in facilitate the generation market to operate and supply of security to maintain order in theassess system requirement capability This dual-criteria approach allows us to List ofdirectlyscaledplantsandtheassociatedscalingfactors Table 2.2 is maintained without undue constraint. economically efficient transmission capacity an to ensure necessary is SQSS, to the generation dispatch scenario, according generation and interconnectors. This predominantly comes from low-carbon ensure that the NETS’s generation scenario The economy criterion requires us to Economy criterion 2.2.2b Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201618 Pumped storagePumped Tidal/wave Wind CCS with fitted stations Gas-fired CCS with fitted stations Coal-fired Nuclear Interconnectors to importing GB type Fuel
capability and regional requirements.capability criteria approach to determine network dual- this use we how 3explains Chapter balance of demand and generation. the to maintain plants scaled variably use we SQSS (and shown in table 2.2 below). Finally the by specified as factors dispatch scaled the are included in the dispatch using scenario nuclear, and wind like plants, scaled Directly in the dispatched generation background. cycle gas turbines (OCGTs), are not included scaled. Non-contributory plants, like open contributory, directly scaled and variably three categories for generation units: non- represents the economy criterion, we use To set up the dispatch scenario which Scaling factor 100% 50% 70% 70% 85% 85% 85% Chapter two
. . 3 Further projects have applied for Projects of Common Interest (PCI) status under the EU’s (TEN-E) (Energy) Networks Trans-European regulations. Other projects are already in the public domain, Network such as in the Ten-Year Development Plan (TYNDP). These are set out on page 2.3 in Table 20 Current and planned interconnection planned and Current can findYou the up-to-date details of interconnectors contracted transmission from the interconnector TEC Register page: www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Services/ Electricity-connections/Industry- products/TEC-Register/ Similar our to approach the to transmission made have we backgrounds, generation timescales. connection the about assumptions Again, we consider a range of factors, including planning consent, contractual contractual consent, planning including legislation environment dates, connect and up-to-date market intelligence. market up-to-date and
2016 2015. also suggests that we may http://ec.europa.eu/energy/infrastructure/pci/doc/2013_pci_projects_country.pdf http://ec.europa.eu/energy/infrastructure/pci/doc/2013_pci_projects_country.pdf has increased compared FES to This is due greater to regulatory certainty as a result of Ofgem’s cap and floor regime for interconnectors. times At of high GB is GB import to interconnector demand expected be to greater than in previous years. FES The 2016 see connection more to countries than before, points. connection of spread diverse a through 3 The number of interconnectors and total interconnector capacity fromFES 2.3 Interconnector information 19 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter two Network development inputs development inputs Network Interconnectors Interconnectors Table 2.3 Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201620 IFA NorthConnect Link Viking Aquind FABLink 2 IFA NSN Nemo EWIC BritNed Moyle Name ElecLink
Vattenfall AB Lyse, & E-CO, Agder Energi, NGI Holdings Aquind Ltd FabLink Ltd RTE and NGIL Statnett NGIL and NGIL and Elia ElecLink Ltd Eirgrid TenneT and NG Holdings NI Energy RTE and NGIL Owner(s) Operational Interconnectors Operational Contracted Interconnectors Norway Denmark France France France Norway Belgium France Ireland The Netherlands Ireland Northern France to Connects 1400 1000 2000 1400 1000 1400 1000 1000 505 1200 (295 450 2000 Capacity MW MW to NI to NI MW MW to GB) MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW Contracted 2020 Contracted Operational since 1986 Dates Key Operational since 2012 Contracted 2021Contracted 2020 Contracted Contracted 2019 Operational since 2002 Contracted 2022 Contracted Contracted 2019 Contracted 2018 Contracted 2016 Operational since 2011 Chapter two Belgium Belgium France France France Ireland Ireland Ireland Northern Ireland Norway Norway Denmark Belgium France Netherlands The Connects to Connects Ireland
MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW 500-1000 5000 1200 1400 1400 1000 1000 1000 1000 Capacity 1000 1000 1000 1400 1000 1000 3000 1.9.2 and 1.9.3 1.9.2 and 1.9.5 1.9.4, 1.9.6 2.13.1 and 2.13.2 1.10 1.10 1.14 None None None PCI Ref 1.1.1 1.2 1.7.2 1.7.1 1.7.3 1.13 1.9.1 (applied for PCI statusor pre-feasibility studies) Projects of Common Interest or TYNDP Projects 190 167 121 None None None None 189 110 25 153 1005 214 185 2016 TYNDP Reference Project 74 121
New GB- Netherlands Interconnector Second Interconnector GB-France New Interconnector NSN NorthConnect Viking Link Energy Bridge Irish-Scottish Isles Greenwire Codling Park ElecLink IceLink Belgium-GB-2 IFA 2 FABLink Nemo Name Table 2.3 Table Interconnectors (cont.) 21 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter two Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201622
Chapter three 24
three Chapter Chapter 23 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity The electricity transmission network Chapter three be needed. We apply the SQSS the We apply needed. be additional bulk power transfer will capability limitations to or where we capability expect are there where paths power-flow important the NETS boundaries, grouped together of each discuss We also characteristics. NETS the describe we chapter this In requirements. boundary NETS the out system is split by boundaries split is system power transfer capability. The transmission future transmission requirements of bulk the and capabilities boundary NETS’s the to calculate us helps It concept. boundary system the using done is This capability. determine and requirements NETS future of ranges credible on decide us to help scenarios energy future our use we so connect, will when generation will close and new generation and much how exactly know We cannot today. contracted as exactly connect will customers all that unlikely is it experience our In on future transmission requirements. impact abig have will Europe the of rest the interconnectors connecting Great Britain to of development the addition, In NETS. to the signed contracts for new generation to connect of number alarge have we that mind in to bear When we assess future requirements, we need capability.the NETS’s present its and requirements future way, economic and coordinated understand we first must reliably. To make we sure develop efficient, in an the network power safely to and source demand from to transport continue that adaptitcan so and respond must network The transmission will challenges. face significant NETS continues to the change, landscape energy the GB As Introduction 3.1 network transmission electricity The 2 1 Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201624 www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Electricity-codes/System-Security-and-Quality-of-Supply-Standards/ appropriate. as updated and annually reviewed be will boundaries these that note Please 1 that cross cross that 2 to work work to
future NETS boundary capacity deficits. deficits. capacity boundary NETS future and recommendations to address the potential options reinforcement SO’s the of preferred NOA2 the in used be will chapter this in presented results The all round capability. NETS’s the to ensure reinforcement future for need potential the to influence likely are changes in generation and demand scenarios future how on adiscussion and analysis this of study case a present will We flows. north of capable equally facilitating south-to- heavy it’s that to ensure need will NETS the that expected is it place, taking is which change generation scale huge the However,with flows. power north-to-south heavy to support Historically, the NETS has been designed it is demanded. power from where it is generated to where transfer to margins capability sufficient have presently the of majority NETS boundaries that you show We will regions. boundary its of number on a deficits capacity network face potentially will NETS the to come, years the in when how, you and to show analysis total requirements. In this chapter we provide the of overview an gain you to help region, by as of part the assessment
Chapter three
have been appointed through through appointed been have 3 transmission systems are also separately separately also are systems transmission transmission offshore licensed Eight owned. (OFTOs) owners the transitional tendering process. They They process. tendering transitional the that farms wind offshore operational connect were given Crown Estate seabed leases in allocation 2 and rounds 3. 1,
www.ofgem.gov.uk/system/files/docs/2016/09/electricity_registered_or_service_addresses_new_0.pdf 3 The ‘transmission’ classification applies classification ‘transmission’ The to assetsto or above at 132kV in Scotland transmission Wales and England In offshore. or relates assets to and at 275kV above. network transmission the owns Grid National transmission The Wales. and England in network in Scotland is owned two by separate Transmission SHE companies: transmission in the north of Scotland and SP Transmission in the south of Scotland. The offshore The NETS is mainly made up of 400kV, 275kV and 275kV The NETS 400kV, is mainly of made up assets connecting separately generators, owned 132kV interconnectors, large demands and distribution systems. 3.2 NETS background As the SO we are responsibleAs managing we SO the system for operation transmission the of England, networks in Scotland and offshore.Wales, 25 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three explanation will be given for any changes). any for given be will explanation boundaries either removed or amended (an existing some and defined be may boundaries transmission system changes occur, new significant When purposes. comparison and consistency for reported regularly are boundaries recognised of Anumber centres. significant routecorridors and major demand developed around major sources of generation, experience. The NETS boundaries have years of transmission operation and planning many taken has boundaries NETS the Defining 2016/2017 winter to the refers capability. document this in boundary each of capability base The report. this in presented analysis the in reflected are these issues, stability known are on thermal and voltage issues. Where there is analysis our of focus main the publication, this In capability. network the to determine assessed is factor Each stability. system and/or include thermal circuit rating, voltage constraints Limiting factors on transmission capacity demand. of to areas generation of areas from power to send capacity transmission enough is there that ensure The transmission network is designed to encountered. be power where flowthe areas may limitations between power paths circuit that carry critical crossing adjacent parts, two splits the system into Aboundary concept of boundaries. that wefuture we may the on NETS, have see developed the and both present the restrictions report and requirements, To provide overview an of existing transmission future and boundaries NETS 3.3 network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201626
shown in Figure 3.2. grouped the boundaries into regions as have we issues related To describe help requirements.NETS future to satisfy development future further to require likely more are that boundaries the results section,capability we highlight only them becoming redundant. In our boundary to due reported not now are boundaries result of network development, some a As country. the across power transport effectively to capacity transmission sufficient is there to ensure network transmission the developed continuously have we years ETYS our for considered have we 3.1 boundaries the all Figure shows map boundary NETS GB analysis. Over the the Over analysis.
Chapter three s EC5 Netherland To B16 B7 EC5 B9 W a Anglia B7 France B8 To Greater Gabbard 2nd part East Greater Gabbard 500M SC1 SC2 Array B12 l Scroby sands 5 London Thanet l Sizewel Hornsea B1 5 Dudgeon 1 B10 Norwich Main B1 Sheringham Shoa y V B1 s s s l Sellindge Dogger Bank h Bramford Gunfleet Sands I&II Cleve Hill Dungeness Kentish Flats Canterbur Nort SC2 s s s s iton Knol Tr Coryton Race Bank Kemsley Grain Necton d Rayleigh Main Kingsnorth y e l Lincs Ninfiel lbury ynn Singlewel rley Ti L h Braintre Wa Northfleet East EC1 Inner Dowsing y Littlebrook Connected at 400k Connected at 275 kV Hydro Generation e 400kV Substation 275 kV Substations 132kV Substation 400kV Circuit Interconnectors System Boundarie 275kV Circuit 220kV Circuit 132kV Circuit Thurrock lpole g ltham st Rampion t Humber Gatewa We Wa Pelham Wa Cross Barkin Hackne Major Generating Sites Including Pumped Storage est Hurs Redbridg h Burwell Main stermost Roug Beddington Rowdown EC3 Sutton Bridge st Ham We n y We g New Cross Bolney e h B4 City Rd Grimsby W Humber Refinery Hedo ottenham T Nort Spaldin n Saltend Sout Wimbledon Brimsdown Elstre Rye House B6 Bicker Fen Wymondle ood W h St Johns g Chessington e Eaton Socon Humber Bank Sundon B2 Mill Hill Sout tford Willesde Ealin B5 Creyke Beck Saltend North Wa B14 n eybridge Grendon Iver Killingholm Cottam est Burto W Buzzard Laleham Keadby Leighton est W Fleet W Bridge Thornton Patford m esside h Te Drax n h t Lovedean Osbaldwick Amersham Main Mars ood Thorpe t Hig Marnha fe Greystones Culham y Eggborough Cowley Lackenby Monk Fryston Didco od Point Poppleton h Brinsworth Enderby Staythorpe Hartlepool a Thurcroft n T Ratclif on Soar Botley W Aldwarke East Claydo est h Hartmoor n n Bramle Melton W Norton Lees Hawthorne Pi ferto Stoke Bardolph est Boldon Of ynemout South Shields Skelto Grange l W T Saltholme B2 l Drakelow Blyth Coventry Ferrybridge m d Fawley a Grangetow Nursling Pitsmoor B0 mpleborough Knaresboroug Kirkstal d Hams Hall Berkswel Te Willington r Chesterfield m Norton Bustlehol ield City e B2a d Jordanthorpe l Marchwoo B1 s B1 Peterhead Elland d est s est St. Fergus Nechells Neepsen Sheff y Winco Bank W Bradford l Stocksbridge Firth of Forth Oldbury Minety Feckenha y Spennymoo Marshall Meadows Fraserburgh Willowdal Redmos Willenhal e Clayhill Cellarhea Stella W 7 Persley Kitwel Bushbur Stalybridge s Macclesfiel Melksham Fourstones Bredbur Mannington m Fiddes Dyce Whitegat Rugeley Daine od rness Berwick odhill B1 Acton lham Ocker Hill Strichen To Eccles Macduff s Rochdale Wo Penn Wa e Padiha Craigiebuckler Iron y Moray Firth Arbroath n Ferry Fiddler Bishops Wo Ironbridge k Hutto g k Kearsle Milton of Craigie Dunbar m South Manchester r Carrington Quernmor Kintore GalashielsGalashiels Frodsham rland Fallago Middleton Hawic e Chickerell Penwortham Dudhope l Keith Crystal Ri ashway Ta Dudhope s Seaban Farm W Heysha Shrewsbury Harker Quay Bridgwate n ’s Rainhil D yndhurst Leven s Whitson k Cockenzi L Cupar Rocksavage LT aling Legacy l Redhouse Glenagne Stanah Te g Kirkby Portobelllo Smeaton Gretna Park Connah Dunlaw Extension Imperial estfield d n Glenniston Whitehouse unton emorfa Kaimes Shrubhil t . Axminster W e Glenrothe Mossmorra n Elgin Tr Blackhilloc Ta f Uskmouth ) Mybster Barrow Thurso h e Inverkeithin Charleston Currie Capenhurst lford Rd Gorgie e Cilfynyd Chapelcross Burghmuir Te East Deesid n t n Cardif h North Hoyle Ecclefecha Clyde (South) e TRANSMISSION Dunfemlin Rassau C Exeter Cluni Ormonde Clyde (North Hinkley Poin a s l Broxbur Livingsto SP Burbo Bank Black Law Extension at l n Bathgat y ff Grangemout a Kincardine Dunbeat Bror Boat of Garten Longanne Black Law Alpha Steel l g Mo t Nairn Linnmil Dumfrie r Bainsford d Upper Boat Abham Aberthaw Errochty Power Statio est of Duddon Devonside lney I & II n e mme Dounrea Newarthil W l Tu B7 Wa e Harestanes Bodelwydda Coatbridge n y y k Elvanfoo Wishaw Easterhouse Stirling Robin Rig Rhyl Flats Ireland Alness Cumbernal awsfynydd Pyl Knocknagael Denny St. Fillans h Coalbur l To Tr Clydes Mil Gwynt y Mo East Kilbride Sout Lairg k Bonnybridg Errocht Errocht Earlstoun Carsfad Finlarig Kendoo 3 Strathaven Margam Dinorwig Lambhill n Inverness n Ffestiniog Langage y h Dingwal Pentir ngland Shi Foyers h New Cumnoc Whitelee Windyhill SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRI TRANSMISSION Lochay To Busby Augustus Glendoe mmel Bridge South e Coylto h Whitelee Extn Kilmarnoc y Glenlee B1 Killin n Tu n y Orrin e Fort Alverdiscott Rannoch wn Baglan Ba k To Helensburg d t Kilmarnock Cashli r Beaul e Erskine Neilsto e Landulph Inverarnan Wylfa Invergarry Swansea Nort Ay Kilgallioc Glen Morriso Auchenwynd Cassle Sloy Moor Mossford Hadyar Kilwinning Devol Markhill e Fasnakyl Strathleven East Maybol Newton Stewar Kilmorac Kinlochleven m Glenluc Hunterston s d c Luichart lley n Meadowhead e North Va Dalmally Spango Arecleoch Saltcoat Aigas Hunterston B0 n Corriemoilli g Fort Willia Clacha Whistlefiel Auchencrosh Hunterston Culligran t Caennacro e Dunoo Cruachan Grudie Bridg Crossai Ann aynuil Quoich T Inveraray Nant Deani Port Pembroke B13 e Indian Queens Carradal 1 B16 NW1 d B1 Northern Ireland y B9 To Broadfor 2 Dunvegan B7 NW2 Stornowa Ireland e B10 B8 B1 B6 SW1 To NW3 SC1 Harris SW1 Ardmor b
NW4 B3 B5 B4 a B2 B3b B1 B1 Figure 3.1 GB NETS boundaries 27 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three Regional map Figure 3.2 network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201628
Chapter three
– evaluates the boundary transfer requirements requirements transfer boundary
The economy criterion – defines criterion economy The the requirements transfer boundary NETS’s when demand is met with heavy reliance generators low-carbon and intermittent on Against interconnectors. imports from and background demand and generation this the NETS’s present capability and future established according are requirements theto SQSS Appendices E and F. NETS’s when demand is met with low reliance from imports or generators intermittent on generation this Against interconnectors. NETS’s the background demand and requirements capabilitypresent future and are established according the to SQSS Appendices C and As we move D. into a low will landscape energy the economy, carbon change. The existing criteria set the by NETS SQSS is being reviewed as part of the SQSS update to mind a activity with group review the standard reflect to developments in interconnectors. and demand generation, The security criterion security The
– are those drawn around Determination of NETS boundary present NETS of Determination requirements future and capability useWe the SQSS both to determine boundary requirements. capability future and determineWe NETS’s boundary capability and future requirements across two types of boundaries: local and wider. Local boundaries – are those drawn around small areas of the NETS where a lack of probability high a produces diversity generation network transmission local the stressing of operation. generation coincidental to due Against this generation and demand capability current NETS’s the background established are requirements future and according the to SQSS. boundaries Wider large areas of the NETS where there is a lot of generation diversity. In our capability and system wider of assessment requirement future boundaries we apply both the security and economy criteria, as defined in the SQSS. These criteria take into account both the of effects technological and geographical generation. This allows for a more robust assessmentcapability requirements and of the NETS. 29 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three Example ofrequiredtransferandbasecapabilityforaboundary Figure 3.3 year. that of peak winter to the refers year the x-axis the On y-axis. the in shown as boundary the of capability MW present the represents line horizontal grey year. The this and year last from –both scenarios energy future four our from requirements transfer future the of illustrative are plots varying the figure this In graphs using the shown style in Figure 3.3. boundary the simplified have we So clearly. displayed be could than information more far and results of overlapping extensive be would there because is This once. at everything to show practical not is it boundaries, NETS the for results capability present and When presenting the required transfers Interpreting the graphs boundary network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201630
House, Warwick. Grid National at us visit or events consultation our of one at us with up catch [email protected] to it send please document this of content the of any on feedback have you If Stakeholder engagement GW 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone
2018 2020 2022 2024
No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015 2026 , 2028 of England and Scottish boundaries. North to the applies mostly This shown. are graphs separate two directions different in flows boundary produce can criteria security For boundaries in which the economy and criteria. security and economy the both of value magnitude largest the is line scenario single Future Energy Scenario. Each point in each is shown with one requirement line for each graph asingle direction same the in transfer required aboundary have criteria economy and security the both which in boundaries, most For 2017.– February 2016 December 2016 represents example For 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038
2040 Chapter three h n ferto est Boldon Of h ynemout South Shields W T Blyt e Peterhead est St. Fergus Firth of Forth Fraserburgh Marshall Meadows Willowdal Redmoss Clayhills Stella W Persley Fourstones f Fiddes Dyce e rness Berwick oodhill Strichen To Eccles Macduf W Craigiebuckler Moray Firth Arbroath ss g Milton of Craigi Dunbar Kintore Galashiel Galashiel rland Fallago Hawick e Dudhope Keith Crystal Ri Ta Dudhope Harker yndhurst Leven Cockenzi L Cupar Redhouse ealing Glenagnes T g Portobelllo Smeaton Gretna r Dunlaw Extension estfield Glenniston Whitehouse Kaimes Shrubhill . W Glenrothes Mossmorran n Elgin e Blackhillock ) Mybster Thurso h e Inverkeithin Charleston Curri lford Rd Gorgie e Chapelcross Burghmui Te n h Ecclefechan Clyde (South) e Dunfemlin Cluni n Clyde (North a s Broxbur Livingston SP TRANSMISSION LTD Black Law Extension at d Bathgat ff Grangemout Kincardine Dunbeat Bror Boat of Garte Black Law Longannet l Mo Nairn Linnmill Dumfrie Bainsfor d Errochty Power Statio Devonside n mme Dounreay Newarthill Tu Harestanes Coatbridge Elvanfoot Wishaw Easterhouse Stirling into B0, B1, B1a, B2, B2a, B3b, B2, B4, B5 and B6 B1a, into B0, B1, Grid National with boundary shared B6 (the is has boundary information following The TO). been provided the by two Scottish transmission owners. The figure below shows likely power flow directions in the yearsto come 2026.to up The arrows in the diagram are meant illustrate to power flow directions, but are not drawnto scale reflect to the magnitude of power flows. Alness Cumbernal Knocknagael Denny St. Fillans h Coalbur Clydes Mill East Kilbride Sout Lairg Bonnybridge Errochty Errochty s Earlstoun Carsfad Finlarig Kendoon Strathaven Lambhill n Inverness n h Dingwall Shi Foyer ongland New Cumnock Whitelee Windyhill SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION Lochay T Busby Augustus Glendoe mmel Bridge Sout Coylto Whitelee Extn Kilmarnock y Glenlee Killin Tu n d Orrin e Fort Rannoch wn To Helensburgh d Kilmarnock Cashlie r Beaul Erskine Neilsto e Inverarnan Invergarry Ay Kilgallioch Glen Morrison Auchenwynd Cassley Sloy Moor Mossfor Hadyar Kilwinning Devol Markhill Fasnakyl Strathleven East Maybol Newton Stewart Kilmorack Kinlochleven Hunterston Glenluce Luichart lley Meadowhead North Va n Dalmally Spango Arecleoch Saltcoats Aigas Hunterston Corriemoillie g Fort William Whistlefield Clachan Auchencrosh Hunterston Culligra Caennacroc Dunoon Cruachan Grudie Bridge Crossai Ann aynuilt Quoich T Inveraray Nant Deanie Port e Carradal Northern Ireland To Broadford Dunvegan Stornoway e Harris Ardmor
Figure 3.4 Scottish transmission network Introduction Scottish the describes section following The transmission the to up networks transmission and England the boundary with ownership onshore The network. transmission Wales owned is Scotland in network transmission Transmission SP and Transmission SHE by but is operated National by Grid as System Operator The (SO). Scottish NETS is divided 3.4 Network capability and region: requirements by Scottish boundaries 31 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three interconnector steadily capacity increases. while significantly, drops capacity generating fuel fossil the scenarios energy future all Across mainly wind, connecting within Scotland. sources, renewable from mostly is generation rapid This capacities. boundary Scottish in to adeficit leading capacity generation are often caused by the rapid increasing The restrictions of the Scottish boundaries Regional drivers locations of the network. renewable generation capacity in remote Scotland is experiencing large growth in Primary challenge statement network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201632 however need to import power from England. England. from power to import need however may Scotland output renewable low of At times time. of amount asignificant for England, into Scotland of out south, power export generation capacity, the region is likely to Scottish the than less much is which 2035 4.7exceed to expected not Scotland in demand With weather condition and price of electricity. behaviour depending on factors such as increasingly dynamic Scottish network 15 25 and between of capacity generating Scottish atotal suggest SD.1) Figure in (shown scenarios the 2035, By GW (shown in Figure SD.2) by SD.2) by Figure in GW (shown GW. This indicates indicates GW. This
Chapter three 2035 2035 2030 2030 2025 2025 2020 r re Consumer Power Consumer 2020 2015 2035 2035 2030 2030 Interconnectors and storage 2025 2025 2020 No Progression No 2020 C er er 2015 2035 2035 Fossil fuel Fossil 2030 2030 2025 2025 2020 2020 Slow Progression Slow r re 2015 2035 2035 2030 2030 2025 2025 Gone Green Gone 2020 e ree e 2020
16 2015/ 2015 Low carbon (including renewables) (including carbon Low
0 5
15 1.0 10 25 2.0 20 4.0 0.0 5.0 3.0 30 Gross demand scenarios for the Scottish boundaries regionGross demand scenarios for the Scottish boundaries Figure SD.2 Figure SD.1 for the Scottish boundaries regionGeneration mix scenarios 33 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three access framework. Manage and Connect the with accordance in reinforcement, required the of ahead connected being generation of because is This scenarios. energy future some under years few first the for requirements transfer boundary the satisfy to insufficient is boundaries these of some of capability present The increase. also B5) (B1, B1a, and B4 B2,boundaries B3b, B2a, NETS Scottish the across transfers boundary connection in the SHE transmission area, contracted renewable generation seeking new of volume high the of because time over As generation within these areas increases B3b. is area this it is now interconnected. covering The boundary Interconnected Transmission System (MITS) as Main the of part as considered be therefore will and nature in radial longer no is network Kintyre and Argyll the project, Hunterston – Kintyre and low demand. Following completion of the with significant renewablegeneration activity area an is peninsula Kintyre the and Argyll The limitations (B2a). interconnector and the import resulting network show potential for high generation output and to required, is assessment boundary a local alongside the existing CCGT station. Hence interconnector contracted to connect Windfarm and Connect North Offshore Moray with activity significant experiencing is Peterhead around area the Furthermore, main transmission routes (B0, B1). to the locations NETS Scottish remote the in be limitations on power transfer from generation may there Scotland of north the in development local basis, with the anticipated generation a On boundaries. these across transfer generation in Scotland is increasing power The anticipated increase in renewable network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201634 region will be recommended. Scotland the for reinforcements preferred the benefitanalysis. Following the evaluation, NOA2 the in evaluated be will issues the above mentioned potential capability to address reinforcement network for need The both. for secured to be requires system to south 'Economy' transfers, the transmission north the than lower is transfers 'Security' north to south the of magnitude absolute the While SQSS. the in with the ‘Security Background’ criteria set out accordance in assessed when to north, south from flows power with values Transfer Required and Planned have B6 and B5 Boundaries both 2016/17 winter from 2010. since Consequently, Scotland operating within the wholesale market reduction in conventional generation plant in a4.7 represents This Peterhead. and Fife convential generation at Longannet, Cockenzie of capacity reduced or closures recent of abackdrop against is Scotland in generation The potential future increase in renewable cost–
GW GW
Chapter three
B0 Peterhead St. Fergus Fraserburgh Persley f Dyce Strichen Macduf Moray Firth e Kintor Keith Elgin Blackhillock Mybster Thurso h a Dunbeat Bror Nairn Dounreay Alness Knocknagael extending north from Beauly. The 275kV overhead line takes a direct route north from Beauly Dounreay, to while overhead the 132kV coast east the along route longer a takes line and serves the local grid supply points at Alness, Shin, Brora, Mybster and Thurso. The Orkney demand is fed via a 33kV subsea Thurso. from link Lairg Inverness n Dingwall Shi y Orrin e Beaul
Cassley Mossford Fasnakyl Kilmorack Luichart Aigas B0 Corriemoillie Culligran Grudie Bridge Deanie Dunvegan Stornoway e Harris Ardmor
Boundary B0 separates the area north of Caithness, north comprising Highland, Beauly, existing The Orkney. and Sutherland Beauly of north infrastructure transmission is relatively sparse. The boundary cuts across the existing 275kV circuits double 132kV and circuit double Figure B0.1 of boundary B0 Geographic representation Boundary B0Upper – North SHE Transmission 35 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201636 waters in the longer term. term. longer the in waters Orkney and Firth Pentland the in resource generation marine significant of prospect the generation is primarily onshore wind, with This boundary. the of north generation renewable of growth substantial to the due increasing is B0 through transfer power The 250 around currently is capability boundary The 2040. 2016 from B0 to for transfers boundary required the shows above B0.2 Figure requirementsBoundary and capability GW Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB0 Figure B0.2 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.0 1.6 1.4 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone MW. 2018
2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015
2026 2028 of Mybster) and Thurso. and Mybster) of north (5km Spittal Shin), of east (to the Buidhe substations at Fyrish (near Alness), Loch 275/132kV new Mybster, and Spittal between 132kV new of line section 275kV,at ashort circuit line between Dounreay and Spittal works include rebuilding the 132kV double onshore reinforcement works. The onshore Blackhillock in Moray, along with associated a new substation at Spittal in Caithness and between link HVDC an 2018 comprises and in completion for due is project approved This this. to achieve implemented being Moray reinforcement project is presently Caithness– the and required is B0 boundary of reinforcement that suggest scenarios All 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038 2040 Chapter three
e Peterhead St. Fergus Firth of Forth Fraserburgh Willowdal Redmoss Clayhills Persley f Fiddes Dyce e oodhill Strichen Macduf W Craigiebuckler Arbroath Milton of Craigi Kintore rland Dudhope Keith Ta Dudhope yndhurst Leven L Cupar ealing Glenagnes T r estfield W Glenrothes n Elgin Blackhillock Charleston e Burghmui Cluni n Boat of Garte l Nairn Errochty Power Statio Devonside mme Tu Alness Knocknagael St. Fillans B1 as wellB1 as boundaries B2 and B4. B1a, Two key reinforcementTwo projects have been recently completed allow to for the increasing boundary across power export to requirement The BeaulyB1. Denny to reinforcement extends from Beauly in the north Denny to in the south, boundary capability for additional providing The second project comprised the replacement between line 275kV the on conductors of Beauly, Blackhillock and Kintore with a conductor. rated higher Errochty Errochty s Finlarig Inverness Dingwall Foyer SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION Lochay Augustus Glendoe mmel Bridge y Killin Tu d Orrin e Fort Rannoch Cashlie Beaul Inverarnan Invergarry Glen Morrison Sloy Mossfor Fasnakyl Kilmorack Kinlochleven Luichart n Dalmally Aigas Corriemoillie Fort William Clachan Culligra Caennacroc Cruachan Grudie Bridge aynuilt Quoich T Inveraray Nant Deanie North West SHE Transmission North SHE Transmission West
– Broadford Dunvegan e
Ardmor B1 Boundary B1 runs from the Moray coast coast Moray the from runs Boundary B1 near Macduff the to west coast near Oban, separating the north-west of Scotland from the southern and eastern regions. The area to the north and west of boundary includes B1 Sutherland, Caithness, Highland, north Moray, Western Isles, Skye, Mull and Orkney. The circuit double 275kV the boundary crosses running eastwards from Beauly, the 275/132kV interface at Keith and the new Beauly Denny to south running circuit double 275kV 400kV and Fort Augustus. from Figure B1.1 of boundary B1 Geographic representation Boundary B1 37 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201638 hydro, there is the prospect of significant significant of prospect the is there hydro, Although this is primarily onshore wind and B1.2). Figure (see boundary this of north to the volume of renewable generation connecting large to B1 the due through transfer power the in increase an is there scenarios the all In B1.lies behind boundary also B0 boundary of north generation All B1.2). Figure (see boundary the across requirements in export increase asignificant in to result expected are boundary the of north New renewable generation connections 1875around currently is capability boundary The 2040. 2016 B1 for from to transfers boundary required B1.2 the shows Figure above requirementsBoundary and capability GW Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB1 Figure B1.2 3.5 0.5 3.0 4.5 0.0 4.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018
MW. 2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015
2026
2028 B1 capability. boundary to the enhancement further 2018 provide will under development with expected delivery in The Caithness–Moray HVDC scheme presently Foyers. at storage 800 existing generation, which comprises around the during region this in to connect expected also is Fort Augustus area. Some marine generation the in planned also is generator storage pump small onshore wind developments. A large new and large of volume a considerable as well as Isles Shetland the and Orkney Isles, Western includes the renewable generation on the Contracted generation behind B1 boundary resources being connected in the longer term. additional wind, wave and tidal generation ETYS 300 and hydro of MW 2030 time period. This is supplemented by 2032 Base Capability 2034 MW of pumped pumped of MW 2036 2038 2040
Chapter three e Peterhead St. Fergus Firth of Forth D Fraserburgh Willowdal Redmoss AN Clayhills Persley RL B1a TA f Fiddes Dyce e oodhill Strichen Macduf W Craigiebuckler Arbroath FETTERESSO Milton of Craigi Kintore rland E Y Dudhope Keith Ta Dudhope OR EA NT yndhurst KI UNR Leven L Cupar DO ealing Glenagnes T r LOCK THURSO estfield IL W Glenrothes n Elgin Blackhillock 2016 and its main 2016 difference from KH Charleston AC TH e H Burghmui IT BL S MYBSTER KE Cluni LA n DUNBEA RC Boat of Garte FA l Nairn Errochty Power Statio Devonside mme GLEN ELGIN S Tu F Alness LLA TEN TO Knocknagael St. Fillans DA and Kintore and the 400kV and double 275kV Fort Augustus. from south running circuit transfers high causes output renewables High across this boundary. This is a new boundary for the ETYS the existing boundary is that B1 Blackhillock substation is north of the boundary. BOA GAR NAIRN BRORA Errochty Errochty ALNESS s Finlarig INVERNESS S Inverness AEL IN Dingwall ARM YER Foyer SH AG SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION Lochay Augustus Glendoe FO mmel Bridge KN y Killin ARR Tu d Orrin F WIND F e Fort OC Rannoch Cashlie Beaul KN Inverarnan Invergarry Glen Morrison Sloy Mossfor Fasnakyl Kilmorack KinlochlevenKinlochleven Luichart n Dalmally Y Aigas US UL Corriemoillie Fort William ST LAIRG Clachan BEA Culligra Caennacroc CASSLEY GU Cruachan AU Grudie Bridge aynuilt Quoich T Inveraray Nant RT Deanie E E FO T E DO ORRIN GRUDI BRIDGE GLEN LUICHAR MOSSFORD SNAKYL FA Broadford AIGAS Dunvegan DEANIE M CULLIGRAN D KILMORACK IA S OR e AN NE LL DF EG WI
INBA OA HARRI NV RT Ardmor BR ED DU FO B1a Boundary B1a runs from the Moray coast coast Moray the from runs Boundary B1a near Macduff the to west coast near Oban, separating the North West of Scotland from the boundary The regions. eastern and southern running circuit double 275kV the crosses eastwards from Blackhillock Kintore to on a direct route and another double 275kV circuit running eastwards from Keith Peterhead to Geographic and schematic representation of boundary B1a Geographic and schematic Figure B1a.1 Boundary B1a – North West 1a SHE Transmission SHE Transmission – North 1a West Boundary B1a 39 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity B1a Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201640 generation connecting to the north of this this of north to the connecting generation renewable of volume large to the due B1a through transfer power the in increase an is there scenarios energy future the all In B1a.boundary behind lies B1 also and B0 boundaries of across the boundary. All generation north requirements in export increase significant a in to result expected are boundary the of New renewable generation connections north 2 GW. around currently is capability boundary The 2040. B1a for 2015 from to transfers boundary required the B1a.2 shows above Figure requirementsBoundary and capability Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB1a Figure B1a.2 GW 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 2016 Consumer Power 2016 Power Consumer 2016 Progression No 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Progression No 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer
2026
2028 300 and 800 around comprises which This is supplemented by existing generation, ETYS the during region this in marine generation is also expected to connect planned in the Augustus Fort area. Some also is generator storage pump new A large of large and small onshore wind developments. the Shetland Isles with a considerable volume generation on the Western Isles, Orkney and B1abehind boundary includes the renewable the longer term. Contracted generation generation resources being connected in tidal and wave wind, additional significant of prospect the is there hydro, and wind boundary. Although this is primarily onshore 2030 MW of pumped storage at Foyers. at storage pumped of MW 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 time period. MW of hydro hydro of MW 2038 2040
Chapter three e Firth of Forth Marshall Meadows Willowdal Redmoss Clayhills Persley Fiddes e rness Berwick oodhill To Eccles W Craigiebuckler Arbroath g Milton of Craigi Dunbar Kintore rland Fallago e Dudhope Crystal Ri Ta Dudhope yndhurst Leven L Cockenzi Cupar LTD Redhouse ealing Glenagnes T g Portobelllo Smeaton Dunlaw Extension estfield Glenniston Whitehouse Kaimes Shrubhill . W Glenrothes Mossmorran n e h e Inverkeithin Charleston Curri lford Rd Gorgie e Burghmuir Te n e TRANSMISSION Dunfemlin Cluni n Broxbur Livingston SP Black Law Extension d Bathgat Grangemout Kincardine Boat of Garte Black Law Longannet l Linnmill Bainsfor d Errochty Power Statio Devonside mme Newarthill g Tu The generation behind boundary B2 includes boundary behind B2 generation The both onshore and offshore wind, with the prospect of significant marine generation longer the in connected being resource additional for potential the also is There term. pumped storage plant be to located in the generation thermal The area. Augustus Fort at Peterheadlies between boundaries and B1 as doB2, several offshore windfarms and the North interconnector Connect future proposed Norway. with Coatbridge Wishaw Easterhouse Stirlin Cumbernal Denny St. Fillans h Clydes Mill East Kilbride Sout Bonnybridge Errochty Errochty s Finlarig Strathaven Lambhill Foyer Whitelee Windyhill SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION Lochay Busby Augustus Glendoe mmel Bridge Whitelee Extn Killin Tu n Fort Rannoch wn To Helensburgh Kilmarnock Cashlie Erskine Neilsto Inverarnan Invergarry Glen Morrison Sloy Moor Kilwinning Devol Strathleven East Kinlochleven m Hunterston s lley Meadowhead North Va Dalmally Spango Saltcoat Hunterston Fort Willia Whistlefield Clachan Hunterston Caennacroc Dunoon Cruachan Crossaig Ann aynuilt Quoich T Inveraray Nant Port d Broadfor
B2 Boundary B2 cuts across the Scottish between coast east the from mainland Aberdeen and Dundee near to Oban on the west coast. The boundary cuts across the two double275kV circuits single and a 132kV circuit in the east as well as the double circuit running southwards from Fort Augustus. As a result it north–south main transmission the all crosses routes from the north of Scotland. As described in boundary the recently B1, completed Beauly–Denny project is a key capability the increased has that reinforcement across B2 and boundaries B4. B1a, B1, Figure B2.1 of boundary B2 Geographic representation Boundary – North B2 SHE South Transmission to 41 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201642 the north of the boundary. boundary. the of north the renewable generation seeking connection to contracted of volume high the of because rate asignificant at increasing are B2 boundary for transfers boundary future potential The 2500 around currently is capability boundary The 2040. 2016 from B2 for to transfers boundary required the shows B2.2 above Figure requirementsBoundary and capability Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB2 Figure B2.2
GW 10.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 7.0 7.0 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone
MW. 2018 2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015
2026 2028 the transmission system further. to reinforce need potential strong the indicates this across boundary all generation scenarios increase in the required transfer for capability B2’sboundary capability. north–south The additional network capacity and increases significant provided has reinforcement to Denny Beauly completed recently The 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038 2040 Chapter three E
GI
H AI CR OF ON TH FRASERBURG LT OA MI BR STRICHEN AR . FERGUS GAS ST PETERHEAD GRANGE . FERGUS MOBIL ST ER D KL EAD RI UC RH NG EB TE S HI GI PE EC AI DDE BR FI CR EY SL G PER IN D AN TEAL RL TA this area as well. There is limited capacity on the existing circuits 275kV accommodate to this and other generation connected the to network132kV served the by network 275kV in this area. A new local boundary, B2a, was created network local of assessment the facilitate to accommodate to requirements capacity power flows in this area. FETTERESSO
E
OR
NT KI a B2 e B2a Peterhead St. Fergus Fraserburgh Willowdal Persley f
Dyce oodhill Strichen Macduf W Moray Firth Kintore Keith Boundary B2a is a local boundary local enclosing a is Boundary B2a the Peterhead area. The boundary cuts across the circuits 275kV from Peterhead Blackhillockto and Peterhead Kintore, to Blackhillock to Kintore from circuit 275kV the via Keith and the double 275kV circuit from Peterhead Kintore to via Persley. Peterhead power station is connected in this area and Offshore North Connect and Windfarm Moray in connect to contracted are interconnector Geographic and schematic representation of boundary B2a Geographic and schematic Figure B2a.1 Boundary – Peterhead B2a 43 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201644 rud 1300 around currently is capability boundary The 2040. 2015 from B2a for to transfers boundary required the shows above B2a.2 Figure requirementsBoundary and capability Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB2a Figure B2a.2 GW 3.5 0.5 3.0 4.5 0.0 2.5 4.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 2016 Consumer Power 2016 Power Consumer 2016 Green Gone 2018 MW.
2020 2022 Slow Progression 2016 Progression Slow 2024 Base Capability
2026
2028 2030 No Progression 2016 Progression No 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Chapter three
B3b B3b D T Cupar Redhouse ealing T g Portobelllo Smeaton estfield Glenniston Whitehouse Kaimes Shrubhill . W Glenrothes Mossmorran e A key reinforcement has recently been comprising Kintyre area, the in completed two 220kV subsea AC cables between a new substation at Crossaig the (to north of Carradale) on Kintyre and Hunterston in Ayrshire. section A 15km of existing 132kV and Crossaig between line circuit double rebuilt. been also has Carradale ) h e Inverkeithin Charleston Curri lford Rd Gorgie e Burghmuir Te n Clyde (South) e Dunfemlin Cluni Clyde (North Broxbur Livingston SP TRANSMISSION L Black Law Extension at d Bathgat ff Grangemout Kincardine Black Law Longannet Mo Linnmill Bainsfor d Devonside n Newarthill g Harestanes Coatbridge Elvanfoot Wishaw
Easterhouse Stirlin Cumbernal Denny St. Fillans h Coalbur
Clydes Mill East Kilbride Sout Bonnybridge Finlarig Strathaven Lambhill n h New Cumnock Whitelee Windyhill SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION Lochay Busby mmel Bridge Sout Coylto Whitelee Extn Kilmarnock Killin Tu n wn To Helensburgh d Kilmarnock Cashlie r Erskine Neilsto e Inverarnan Ay Auchenwynd Sloy Moor Hadyar Kilwinning Devol Strathleven East Maybol Hunterston s lley Meadowhead North Va Dalmally Spango Saltcoat Hunterston Whistlefield Clachan Hunterston Dunoon Cruachan Crossaig Ann aynuilt T Inveraray Nant Port e Carradal
B3b b and the Kintyre across cutting peninsula, the and the existing circuits 132kV between Inveraray and Sloy substations. In the Argyll and Kintyre area the 132kV network is relatively weak with a low capacity, so a local boundary assessment is used to show limitations generation to power flow. ArgyllBoundary encompasses the B3b B3 Figure B3b.1 Boundary B3b – Argyll and Kintyre representation of boundary B3bGeographic and single-line 45 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201646 rate because of the high volume of connected connected of volume high the of because rate asignificant at increasing are B3b boundary The potential future power transfers across boundary capability is capability around 420boundary 2016 current from The to 2040. requirements transfer minimum and maximum the of aview and boundary B3b the of capability required the gives above B3b.2 Figure requirementsBoundary and capability Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB3b Figure B3b.2 GW 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.1 2016 Consumer Power 2016 Power Consumer 2016 Progression No 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020 2022 2024
MW. No Progression 2015 Progression No 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer 2026 2028 network will be required in the future. the in required be will network this of reinforcement further that likely is it and and proposed connection activity in the area, to 420 increased the capability of the boundary completed Kintyre-Hunterston link has recently The Kintyre. and Argyll in connection and contracted renewable generation seeking 2030 MW. There is still significant interest interest significant still is MW. There 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038
2040 Chapter three t h n Hartmoor Hawthorne Pi ferto est Boldon Of h ynemout South Shields W T Blyt est Firth of Forth Marshall Meadows Stella W Fourstones GW from Rounds 1–3 1–3 Rounds from GW
e rness Berwick To Eccles Arbroath ss g Milton of Craigi Dunbar GalashielGalashiel Fallago Hawick e Dudhope Crystal Ri Dudhope Harker n yndhurst Leven L Cockenzi Cupar Redhouse ealing Glenagnes T g Portobelllo Smeaton Gretna r Dunlaw Extension estfield Glenniston Whitehouse Kaimes Shrubhill . W Glenrothes Mossmorra e ) h e Inverkeithin Charleston Curri lford Rd Gorgie e Chapelcross Burghmui Te n Ecclefechan Clyde (South) e Dunfemlin Cluni Clyde (North Broxbur Livingston SP TRANSMISSION LTD Black Law Extension at d Bathgat ff Grangemout Kincardine Longannet Black Law The recently completed Kintyre–Hunterston Kintyre–Hunterston completed recently The circuits additional two provided has link subsea substation 132kV new a between B4 crossing at Crossaig in Kintyre and the 400kV network at Hunterston in Ayrshire. boundary behind generation prospective The 2.7 around includes B4 and Scottish Territorial waters offshore wind located off the coast of Scotland. Mo Linnmill Dumfries Bainsfor d Devonside n Newarthill Harestanes Coatbridge Elvanfoot Wishaw Easterhouse Stirling Cumbernal Denny St. Fillans h Coalbur Clydes Mill East Kilbride Sout Bonnybridge
Earlstoun Carsfad
Finlarig Kendoon Strathaven Lambhill n h ongland New Cumnock Whitelee Windyhill SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION Lochay T Busby mmel Bridge
Sout Coylto Whitelee Extn Kilmarnock Glenlee Killin Tu Rannoch wn To Helensburgh d t Kilmarnock Cashlie r Erskine Neilston e Inverarnan Inverarnan Ay Kilgallioch Auchenwynd Sloy Moor Hadyar Kilwinning Devol Markhill Strathleven East Maybol Newton Stewar Glenluce Hunterston lley Meadowhead North Va Dalmally Spango Arecleoch Saltcoats Hunterston g Whistlefield Clachan Auchencrosh Hunterston . Dunoon Cruachan Crossai Ann aynuilt T Inveraray Nant Port Carradale Northern Ireland To
B4 The boundary is crossed two by 275kV Boundary B4 separates the transmission transmission the Boundary separates B4 network at the SP Transmission and SHE Transmission interface running from the Firth of in the eastTay near to the head of Loch Long in SHE the in generation increasing With west. the scenarios, generation all for area Transmission the required transfer across boundary B4 is expected increase to significantly over the period covered the by ETYS double circuits Kincardine to and Westfield in the east, double two 132kV circuits from Sloy Windyhill to in the west, two 275/132kV auto-transformer circuits at Inverarnan and to circuit double commissioned recently the Denny North, one circuit of which operates at 400kV and a recently upgraded double circuit Denny. Oneto circuit operates at 400kV and the other at 275kV. Figure B4.1 of boundary B4 Geographic representation Boundary B4 – SHE Transmission to SP Transmission to Boundary B4– SHE Transmission 47 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201648 boundary. This is primarily onshore and of generation connecting north of the volumes significant the of because increases B4 boundary through transfer power the scenarios, energy future the of all In 3024 MW. is capability boundary current The 2040. 2016 from B4 to for transfers boundary required the shows above B4.2 Figure requirementsBoundary and capability GW Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB4 Figure B4.2 10 10 12 12 0 2 4 6 8 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone
2018 2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015
2026
2028 around 2.7 around generation B4 includes behind boundary connected in the longer term. The contracted being resource generation marine significant of offshore wind generation, with the prospect across B4. boundary need to reinforce the transmission network capability clearly indicates the strong potential transfer required potential the in increase The of large onshore wind generation. 2030 GW of offshore and over 5 over and GW offshore of 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038 GW GW 2040
Chapter three t h n Hartmoor Hawthorne Pi ferto est Boldon Of h ynemout South Shields W T Blyt est Firth of Forth Marshall Meadows Stella W Fourstones e rness Berwick To Eccles Arbroath ss g Milton of Craigi Dunbar GalashielGalashiel Fallago Hawick e Dudhope Crystal Ri Dudhope Harker n yndhurst Leven L Cockenzi Cupar Redhouse ealing Glenagnes T g Portobelllo Smeaton Gretna r Dunlaw Extension estfield Glenniston Whitehouse Kaimes Shrubhill . W Glenrothes Mossmorra e ) h e Inverkeithin Charleston Curri lford Rd Gorgie e Chapelcross Burghmui Te n Ecclefechan Clyde (South) e Dunfemlin Cluni Clyde (North Broxbur Livingston SP TRANSMISSION LTD Black Law Extension at d Bathgat ff Grangemout Kincardine Longannet Black Law boundary B5. The existing transmission existing The boundary B5. boundary three comprises the across network double275kV circuit routes: one from Windyhill substation275kV in the west and one from 275kV Longannet and Kincardine of each east. the in substations Mo Linnmill Dumfries Bainsfor d Devonside n Newarthill Harestanes Coatbridge Elvanfoot Wishaw Easterhouse Stirling Cumbernal Denny St. Fillans h Coalbur Clydes Mill East Kilbride Sout Bonnybridge Earlstoun Carsfad Finlarig Kendoon Strathaven Lambhill n h ongland New Cumnock Whitelee Windyhill SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION Lochay T Busby mmel Bridge Sout Coylto Whitelee Extn Kilmarnock Glenlee Killin Tu Rannoch wn To Helensburgh d t Kilmarnock Cashlie r Erskine Neilston e Inverarnan Inverarnan Ay Kilgallioch Auchenwynd Sloy Moor Hadyar Kilwinning Devol Markhill Strathleven East Maybol Newton Stewar Glenluce Hunterston lley Meadowhead North Va Dalmally Spango Arecleoch Saltcoats Hunterston g Whistlefield Clachan Auchencrosh Hunterston Dunoon Cruachan Crossai Ann aynuilt T Inveraray Nant Port Carradale Northern Ireland To
Boundary B5 is internal the to SP Transmission system and runs from the Firth of Clyde in the west the to Firth of Forth in the east. The with together Cruachan, at station generating Windyhill, served from groups demand the Lambhill, Bonnybridge and Westfield275kV substations, are located the to north of B5 Figure B5.1 of boundary B5 Geographic representation Boundary B5 – North SP South Transmission to 49 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201650 3.8 to around limited by thermal considerations presently is boundary the of capability The 2040. to 2016 from B5 for transfers boundary required the shows above B5.2 Figure requirementsBoundary and capability Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB5 Figure B5.2
GW 10.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 7.0 7.0 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone
2018 GW. 2020 2022
2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015
2026 2028 on and offshore wind. throughout the of north Scotland, primarily to a large volume of generation connections due time, over requirement to south) (north export in increase by an followed is This to the cessation of generation at Longannet. due B5 boundary across capability transfer required in reduction significant initial an is there scenarios energy future the of all In 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038
2040
Chapter three
B6
GW. GW.
eesside T t Greystones Lackenby od Point h Hartlepool n T Hartmoor Hawthorne Pi ferto est Boldon Of h ynemout South Shields W T Saltholme Blyt Grangetown n Norto est Spennymoor Marshall Meadows Stella W Fourstones rness Berwick To Eccles g GalashielsGalashiels Fallago Hawick Crystal Ri Harker GW of otherGW types of generation is required in Scotland. Scotland. in This generation could be provided a varietyby of sites such as Torness, and storage pump various Hunterston, hydro schemes, and Peterhead. After the Western HVDC link is completed for is requirement generation this 2017/18, expected fall to approximately to 2.0 3 low wind generation output, approximately approximately output, generation wind low Conventional generation in Scotland such as such Scotland in generation Conventional the nuclear units at Hunterston and Torness continue play to a vital role in managing security of supply across Scotland. secure To the peak demand in Scotland can be met at times of Portobelllo Smeaton Gretna Dunlaw Extension Whitehouse Kaimes ) Currie Gorgie Chapelcross n Ecclefechan Clyde (South) e Clyde (North s Broxbur Livingston SP TRANSMISSION LTD Black Law Extension at d Bathgat ff Black Law Mo Linnmill Dumfrie Bainsfor d n Newarthill Harestanes Coatbridge Elvanfoot Wishaw Easterhouse Robin Rigg Cumbernal h Coalbur Clydes Mill East Kilbride Sout Earlstoun Carsfad Kendoon Strathaven Lambhill n h ongland New Cumnock Whitelee Windyhill T Busby Sout Coylto Whitelee Extn Kilmarnock Glenlee n Wigtown Bay wn To d t Kilmarnock r Erskine Neilsto e Ay Kilgallioch Auchenwynd Moor Hadyar Kilwinning Devol Markhill Strathleven East Maybol Newton Stewar Hunterston Glenluce s Meadowhead North Arecleoch Saltcoat Hunterston g Auchencrosh Hunterston Crossai e Carradal
Northern Ireland To B6 Boundary B6 separates the SP Transmission Transmission Electricity Grid National the and (NGET)systems. The existing transmission boundary consists primarily the across network of two double-circuit 400kV routes. There are boundary, the across circuits 132kV some also which are of limited capacity. The key 400kV routes are from Gretna Harker to and from Eccles Stella to West. Peak power flow south to north from typically are requirements output. generation renewable high of times at Figure B6.1 of boundary B6 Geographic representation Boundary B6 – SP Transmission to NGET to Boundary B6 – SP Transmission 51 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201652 onshore and offshore wind. This generation of additional generation in Scotland, primarily connection to the due to England Scotland from capability export required the in increase an is there scenarios energy future all Across programmed for 2017. currently is and restrictions access to system due delayed been has works circuits are replaced. Completion of these 400kV cable systems on the Torness–Eccles 3.5 around at limit athermal currently is B6 boundary of capability The to 2040. 2016 from B6 boundary for transfers required Figure B6.2 above shows the economy requirementsBoundary and capability Economy requiredtransferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB6 Figure B6.2 but will increase to around 4.4 to around increase will but GW 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020 2022 GW when the the GW when 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015 GW GW
2026
2028 be sufficient to satisfy SQSS requirements. SQSS satisfy to sufficient be to is expected north flows power for B6 The transmission capability of boundary values. at negative represented north to south flow power with B6 boundary shows required the transfer security for maintaining demand security. Figure B6.3 output, consideration must be given to and variability of renewable generation With the closure of conventional generation earliest. 2021 the at until 6.5 (above transfers large very varies in each scenario. The requirement for closure of nuclear plants, the timing of which expected by the offset partially is increase 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 GW) is delayed delayed is GW) 2038
2040
Chapter three 2040 2038 2036 2034 Base Capability 2032 2030 2028 2026 Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 2022 2020 2018
Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer 5 2016 0 -5
1.0 1.5
-1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -3.5 GW 53 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Figure B6.3 and base capability for boundary B6 Security required transfer Chapter three North Englandtransmissionnetwork Figure 3.5 B7a and, enclosing the Humber region, This includes the B7, boundaries upper north Midlands. North the and border Scottish the includes the transmission network between The North of England transmission region Introduction boundaries Northern by requirements region: and capability Network 3.5 network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201654 To Ireland To NorthernIreland
Carradal e Auchencrosh Arecleoch Meadowhead Glenluce Stewar Newton Maybol Markhill Hadyar Auchenwynd Kilgallioch Ay Wylfa e r t d Wigtown Bay Glenlee Kilmarnock Coylto Sout T New Cumnock ongland h n Kendoon Carsfad Earlstoun Gwynt yMor To Coalbur Ireland Rhyl Flats Robin Rigg Elvanfoot Harestanes Wa W n lney I&II est ofDuddon Dumfries Mo ff at Burbo Bank SP Clyde (North) Ormonde TRANSMISSION Clyde (South) Ecclefechan North Hoyl Chapelcross Barrow e Gretna Kirkby
Stanah LT Rocksavage D Rainhill Harker Heysham W Far ashway Penwortham Hawick Middleton m Galashiel Quernmor Carrington of power flows. power of magnitude the to reflect to scale drawn not are but directions, flow power to illustrate meant are diagram the in arrows to The 2026. up come to years the in directions flow power likely shows below EC1. figure The boundary Kearsley Hutto Fiddler Ferry s n Padiham e Rochdal s Eccles Daines Whitegat Bredbur e Fourstones Stalybridge Stella W e Spennymoor y Stocksbridge Bradfor W Winco Bank Shef Neepsend est est Elland field City Norto d Te Kirkstal Knaresborough mpleborough n Pitsmoor Grangetown Ferrybridge Blyth l Saltholme T W Grange Skelton South Shields ynemout Of est Boldon ferto Hawthorne Pit W Melto Hartmoor est Aldwarke T n Thurcrof Hartlepool Brinsworth h Poppleton od Point Fryston Monk Lackenby n Eggborough Greystones Thorpe Mars Osbaldwick t Drax T eesside h Thornton Keadby W Burto est Cotta Killingholme n m North Saltend Creyke Beck Sout Bank Humber h Saltend Sout Hedon Humber Refiner Grimsby W W estermost Rough h est Humber Gatewa
y
y Chapter three
GW ofGW generation connected by 2035. Depending on Depending 2035. by connected generation could generation the develops, scenario which including renewables increased towards trend offshore wind farms or could see growth in demand The generation. conventional in the region, as shown in Figure NB.2 could can as decrease to expected be reasonably Regional drivers Regional According the to future energy scenarios graph northern transmission the NB.1), (Figure below region could expect between and 25 15 be seen for most of the scenarios. Primary challenge statement challenge Primary power and generation new of connection The flow through the region from Scotland heading south has the potential cause to overloading on northern across circuits of number limited the requirements transfer power Future England. what to compared double than more be could they are today. 55 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201656 Generation mixscenariosfortheNorthernboundariesregion Figure NB.1 Gross demandscenariosfortheNorthernboundariesregion Figure NB.2 30 10.0 20 25 14.0 12.0 10
15 8.0 6.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 5 0 Low carbon (including renewables) 2015 2015/ 16 2020
e ree 2020 Gone Green 2025 2025 2030 2030 2035 2035 2015 r re Slow Progression 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 Fossil fuel 2035 2035 2015 C er er C er 2020 No Progression 2020 2025 2025 Interconnectors andstorage 2030 2030 2035 2035 2015 2020 Consumer Power r re 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 2035 2035 Chapter three
cost–benefit cost–benefit Limitation on power transfer out of North East England (boundary B7) is caused by Cumbria from transfer power on Limitation Lancashireto (boundary occurs as B7a) power flows via two branches of circuits: a 400kV branch of Penwortham–Padiham/ Carrington and branch a 275kV of Penwortham–Kirkby. As the power flow branches two the future, the in increases limit. loading thermal their to stressed be will the north south to flow across two sets of Norton–Osbaldwick– circuits: double 400kV As Lackenby–Thornton. and Thornton its increases area England East North the eventually will circuits these exports, limit. loading thermal their reach The need for network reinforcement address to issues capability potential mentioned above the will be evaluated in the NOA2 preferred the evaluation, the Following analysis. reinforcements for the North of England region recommended. be will As the potential futurerequirement transfer to more power from Scotland England to increases, are likely andB7 reach to B7a their capability limits and may need network reinforcement. overcome be to restrictions future potential The areacross summarised: and B7 B7a
Presently, most of the northern transmission network is oriented for north–south power flows with connections for demand and high of times At way. the along generation generation the power flow will mostly be from northsouth, to with power coming from both generation and boundary generation internal further north in Scotland. The small number of circuits running north south to means that The capabilitytransmission very be limited. can loss of one of the north south to routes will have a very high impact on the remaining circuits. There are current ongoing works increase to particularly capability, northern boundaries’ with the Western HVDC Link and the series and shunt compensation project, handle to high power transfer from Scotland England. to northern region the in voltages addition, In and Scotland are being managed carefully helps This switching. reactive operational with manageto the significant voltage drop due reactiveto power demands which arise when high levels of power flow on long switching reactive Operational circuits. solutions are also used manage to light can voltage the when conditions loading rise unacceptable to levels. conventional large of concentration high The South and Humber around generators Yorkshire means that system configuration can be limited high by fault levels. Therefore some the in restrictions capability network potential north can be due the to inability configure to the network as desired due fault to level concerns. 57 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three B7. However, since the generation in the area area the in B7. generation the However, since boundary on requirements significant putting was this Scotland, from power exported to the added –when power exported so generation of asurplus to have B7 used and B6 boundaries between area The west. the in one and east the in two circuits: double 400kV by three characterised is It Teesside. B7Boundary bisects England south of Geographic representationofboundaryB7 Figure B7.1 B7 North –Upper Boundary network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201658 To Ireland B7
Auchencrosh Arecleoch Glenluce Stewar Newton Kilgallioch t Wigtown Bay T ongland Earlstoun To Ireland Robin Rigg Wa W lney I&II est ofDuddon Dumfrie Burbo Bank s Ormonde Ecclefechan Chapelcross Barrow Stanah Harker Heysham W Far ashway Penwortham Middleton m Quernmor Kearsley Hutto n Padiham e Rochdal Whitegate e Fourstones Stella W Spennymoor Bradford W est est Elland fo r B7. r fo will increase transferboundary requirements and offshore wind connecting of north the generation. This coupled with future onshore embedded in to increase due demand in areduction seen also B7 has boundary of north area The exports. Scottish by the mainly driven now B7 is on requirement the reduced, B7 has and B6 boundaries between Norto Te Kirkstal Knaresborough mpleborough n Grangetown Ferrybridge l Saltholme T W Grange Skelto South Shields ynemouth Of est Boldon ferto Hawthorne Pi n Hartmoor T n Hartlepool Poppleton od Point Fryston Monk Lackenby Eggborough Greystones Thorpe Mars Osbaldwick t Drax T eesside h Thornton Keadby Killingholme North Saltend Creyke Beck Saltend Sout Hedon Humber Refiner W estermost Rough h Humber Gatewa y y T riton Knol l Hornsea B7 Chapter three 2040 2038 2036 2034 Base Capability 2032 2030 The required transfer for will B7 also greatly several the of operation the on vary depending north connect to planned interconnectors interconnectors these With boundary. the of importing the to GB system, required B7 increase. would transfers boundary for securityThe transfer required placesB7 requirement for capability for south northto power flow B7.3.as shown in figure Capability is expected be to sufficientto meet the capability requirements in the near future, with potential need improve to capability further in the future. 2028 2026 – this GW forGW a Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 2022 2020 2018
Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer
2016
2 0 8 6 4 14 GW 12 16 10 59 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Boundary requirements and capability and Boundary requirements above showsFigure the economy B7.2 required transfers for boundary from B7 2016 2040.to The boundary capability is currently limited voltage by compliance at 4.3 fault on the circuits from Hutton Penwortham to and Heysham. All the future energy scenarios suggest an increase in future requirements due the to increase of generation north of boundary B7. plants nuclear and gas coal, ageing Although are closing north of the boundary across these scenarios, this is offset the by vast being wind offshore and onshore of amount showing not scenario only The commissioned. a significant build-up Progression is No is mainly due the to lack of significant offshore 2021. after connections wind onshore and Figure B7.2 and base capability for boundary B7 Economy required transfer Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201660 GW Security requiredtransferforboundaryB7 Figure B7.3 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015 2026 2028 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038 2040 Chapter three a B7 Hornsea Dudgeon Sheringham Shoal l riton Knol T Race Bank Docking Shoal Lincs ynn L Inner Dowsing Humber Gateway est h estermost Rough estermost W Grimsby W Humber Refinery Hedon Saltend Sout Bicker Fen h Humber Bank Sout Creyke Beck Saltend North m n Killingholme Cotta est Burto W Keadby Thornton h Drax t Osbaldwick Mars Thorpe High Marnham Eggborough n Lackenby Monk Fryston Poppleton Brinsworth Staythorpe Thurcrof Aldwarke est n Melto W Norton Lees Stoke Bardolph Skelto Grange l Ferrybridge Grangetown Pitsmoor of generation – when added the to exported power from Scotland this puts significant requirements on boundary In the future B7a. a large amount of onshore and offshore wind boundary increases this north of connecting requirements. transfer the mpleborough Knaresborough Kirkstal Te Chesterfield d field City Jordanthorpe Elland est Neepsend Shef Winco Bank W Bradfor Stocksbridge y e Cellarhead Stalybridge Macclesfield e Bredbur Whitegat Daines s Rochdal e Padiham n Ferry Fiddler Hutto Kearsley South Manchester Carrington Quernmor Frodsham m Middleton Penwortham ashway Far W Heysham Quay ’s Rainhill Rocksavage Legacy Stanah Kirkby Connah Barrow Capenhurst Deeside North Hoyle Ormonde Burbo Bank a est of Duddon lney I & II W B7 Wa Bodelwyddan g Rhyl Flats Ireland To Gwynt y Mor Dinorwi Ffestiniog Pentir Wylfa
Ireland To Boundary B7a bisects England south of of south England bisects Boundary B7a Teesside and into the Mersey Ring area. It is circuits 400kV double three by characterised (two in the east, one in the west) and one 275kV circuit. Between boundaries was B6 and B7a surplus a with area exporting an traditionally Geographic representation of boundary B7a Geographic representation Figure B7a.1 Boundary B7a – Upper North Boundary B7a 61 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201662 Farm circuits).Farm one ofoverloading the Penwortham–Washway and circuits Carrington–Penwortham Padiham–Penwortham the on fault adouble for 8.7 to around capability HVDC Link will increase transfer the boundary Western the of commissioning The circuit. which overloads the Padiham–Penwortham SGT6 and circuit Carrington–Penwortham an overlapping fault involving the Penwortham– 6 around at limited thermally currently is capability 2016 boundary The to 2040. B7a from boundary for transfers required economy the B7a.2 shows above Figure requirementsBoundary and capability Economy requiredtransferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB7a Figure B7a.2 20 20 10 10 16 16
GW 18 12 12 14 14 0 2 4 6 8 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020 GW (a thermal limit limit GW (a thermal 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015 GW for GW for 2026
2028 for B7a. boundary below shows required the transfer security generation is not operational. Figure B7a.3 intermittent the when met is demand ensure to requirement B7a asecurity has boundary them, behind capacity wind of alot with north further boundaries other to the Similar No Progression the of part are these of fewer Scotland, and offshore wind farm connections in England and onshore of to anumber due is increase rapid The to others. compared rate a higher Gone Green particular in where growth the see still will scenarios Other 4 years. No Progression required transfer increases until 2019 when Across all future energy scenarios the 2030 2032 Base Capability scenario. next the for declines 2034 2036 2038
has has
2040
Chapter three 2040 2038 2036 2034 Base Capability 2032 2030 2028 2026 Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 2022 2020
2018 Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer 2016
0 6 4 2
-2 -4 -8 -6 GW 63 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Security required transfer for boundary B7a Security required transfer Figure B7a.3 Chapter three interconnecting transmission circuits. There are their with West Grimsby and Bank Humber Killingholme, Humber Refinery, South consisting of four substations: 400kV EC1Boundary is an enclosed local boundary Geographic andsingle-linerepresentationofboundaryEC1 Figure EC1.1 EC1 –Humber Boundary network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201664 Eggborough Thorpe Mars Drax h Keadby W Burto est Cotta Killingholme
n m North Saltend Sout Bank Humber h Saltend Sout Hedon Humber Refinery Grimsby W h est Humber Gatewa EC1 y as new Killingholme CCGT generation. such plants power gas-fired new and Bank being proposed such as Hornsea and Dogger farms wind offshore are There grid. external the only two outgoing double circuits connected to EC1
Chapter three
2040
and
2038 2036 2034 and Power Consumer scenarios exhibit a delayed delayed a scenarios exhibit scenario. Base Capability 2032 2030 Gone Green Gone scenarios show an increase in required transfer transfer required in increase an scenarios show until 2022 due the to new connection of offshore wind power park modules. From then fairly remains transfer required the 2026 until flat. After the2026, requiredhowever, transfer increases due the to new gas-fired power network. the to connecting plants In comparison, Progression the Slow Progression No CCGT existing decommissions the gas-fired power plant. Therefore there Progression No The increase in boundary transfer with relatively lower degree until 2022 due the to later power wind offshore of commissioning park modules. The Progression Slow is a sharp decrease in However, 2029. the CCGT plant exists all the time in the 2028
2026 Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 2022 2020
2018 Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer 2016
GW forGW a double-circuit fault on Cottam– 1 0 4 3 2 6 5 GW 65 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity of the transmission system due the to closures generation. conventional existing the of some of result happen, they when closures, These connections new the for capability extra in existing the to generations renewable of energy future Our network. transmission new for potential the consider scenarios well as connections, farms wind offshore conventional existing the across closures as plants. power Boundary requirements and capability and Boundary requirements Figure above shows EC1.2 export requirements for boundary 2040. to The from EC1 2016 boundary at capability thermally limited is 4.7 and Drax–Thornton overloading Keadby circuits. double Burton Keadby–West This region becomes a less congested area Figure EC1.2 Boundary export requirements and base capability for boundary EC1 Boundary export requirements Chapter three Wales andMidlands transmissionnetwork Figure 3.6 also covers large wider boundaries such as (SW1). region This boundary Wales South the and related, closely are NW3), which and NW2 includes the Wales North (NW1, boundaries inboundaries Wales and the Midlands. This The Western transmission region includes Introduction Western boundaries by requirements region: and capability Network 3.6 network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201666 To Ireland
Pembroke Swansea North Wylfa Baglan Bay Pentir Ffestinio Dinorwig Margam Gwynt yMo Tr To Pyl awsfynydd g Ireland Rhyl Flats Bodelwyddan e Aberthaw Upper Boat r
Alpha Steel Burbo Bank Rassau Shell Flats North Hoyle Cardi Deeside East Cilfynydd Capenhurst power flows. power of magnitude the to reflect to scale drawn not are but directions flow power illustrate to are diagram the in arrows The 2026. up to come to years the in directions flow power likely shows below figure The region. Midlands B17 and B9 B8, English the in Uskmout ff Tr emorfa Imperia Connah’s Par Kirkby Stanah h k Legacy Rocksavage Whitson l Rainhill Quay Shrewsbury W Farm Seabank ashway Penwortham Frodsham Carrington South Manchester Kearsley Ironbridge Bishops W Fiddler Ferry Iron Padiham Wa Penn Rochdale s Ocker Hill lham Acton ood Daines Rugeley Whitegat Bredbur Melksham Macclesfield Stalybridge Bushbur Kitwell Cellarhead e Willenhall y Feckenham Minet Oldbur Stocksbridge Winco Bank y Shef Neepsend Nechells Elland y Jordanthorpe y field City Bustleholm Chesterfield Willington Te Berkswel Hams Hal Kirkstal mpleborough Pitsmoor Ferrybridge Coventry Drakelow l l Grange Skelton l Stoke Bardolph Norton Lees W Melto Bramley est East Claydon Aldwarke on Soar Ratclif Thurcroft Staythorpe Brinsworth Enderby Poppleton Didcot Fryston Monk n Cowley Eggborough Culham fe Marnham High Thorpe Mars Drax h Patford Bridge
Fleet
Chapter three
2035
2030 2025 GW) which is set Consumer Power Consumer 2020 2035 2030 Interconnectors and storage 2025 No Progression No 2020 2035 Regional drivers Regional By 2035, all the future energy scenarios indicate an overall reduction in the total (Figure region the in generation of amount present, At this regionWB.1). has significant levels of fossil fuel (about 20 of low carbon technologies, Interconnectors Interconnectors technologies, carbon low of Storage. and to closeto and bereplaced a combination by in demand from The 2025. reduction in increase by driven primarily is demand predominantly generation, embedded in Wales. South in Fossil fuel Fossil
2030
2025
2020 Slow Progression Slow 2035 2030 2025 Gone Green Gone Scenario which sees increases increases sees which Scenario 2020
16 2015/ Low carbon (including renewables) (including carbon Low
0 5 15 10 25 20 30 Primary challenge statement challenge Primary North in connecting generation nuclear Future generation embedded and low-carbon Wales, new the and regions, Wales South the in potential the have Ireland with interconnectors driveto increased power flows eastward into are closures plant power where Midlands the set occur to and demand set remain to fairly high. This together with increasing north to south flows drivenby increased renewable generation in Scotland will result in heavy circuit loading and voltage depression. voltage and loading circuit will region Midlands because the is This no longer benefit from local voltage support from the closed plants. Figure WB.2 shows that the demand as seen region the in network transmission the from the scenarios all except across reduce will Green Gone 67 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Generation mix scenarios for the Western boundaries region Generation mix scenarios for the Western Figure WB.1 Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201668 by seven 275kV double circuits and only six six only and circuits 275kV double by seven transmission network in the area is connected The scenarios. energy future the in are that storage, as well as embedded generation low-carbon generation, mainly tidal and battery of amount large by the driven be may England of South the and Midlands South the to flows SW1) power (boundary Wales South From by NW1, boundaries NW2 and NW3. limitation on future power exports are covered new future generation connects. The potential the of much if limits capability to their stressed to be likely are which capacity limited with circuits double 400kV nine only of consists The transmission network in North Wales region. Wales the in expected is this of Most embedded generation and interconnectors. generation are from low carbon technologies, in increases westerly expected of majority The Gross demandscenariosfortheWestern boundariesregion Figure WB.2 2015 2020 e ree
2025 2030 2035 2015 r re 2020 2025 2030 2035 transmission region. reinforcements for this Western and accordingly recommend preferred The voltage depression. demand region, potentially leading to heavy to this transfers large the facilitates that lost is support voltage dynamic needed closures within the Midlands means the much be supplied from other areas. The generation to needs demand the as Midlands the around networks the through flows power large create B17) due to fossil plant fuelled closures will B9, B8, by boundaries (covered demand to Midlands support generator local of loss The limits if future generation connects. which will likely be stressed to their capability double circuits400kV with limited capacity 2015 NOA2 C er er C er 2020 will consider scenarios will scenarios consider 2025 2030 2035 2015 r re 2020
2025
2030 2035 Chapter three B8 Norfolk l Scroby sands Sizewel Dudgeon Norwich Main Sheringham Shoal l Bramford riton Knol T Race Bank Necton Docking Shoal Lincs ynn L e Inner Dowsing lpol y Humber Gateway Wa est h Burwell Main Sutton Bridge Grimsby W Humber Refiner Hedon North Spalding Saltend Sout Bicker Fen h Eaton Socon Humber Bank Sout m n Grendon Killingholme Cotta est Burto W Keadby h Drax Mars Thorpe High Marnham fe Eggborough n Enderby Brinsworth Staythorpe Thurcroft Ratclif on Soar Aldwarke est Melto with two of those passing through the East Midlands while the other two pass through the connection 275kV limited a and Midlands, West from generated Power Yorkshire. South to Scotland continues be to transported south, leading the to high transfer level across B8. W Norton Lees Stoke Bardolph l l Drakelow Coventry Ferrybridge m Pitsmoor mpleborough Hams Hal Berkswel Te Willington Chesterfield Bustlehol field City y Jordanthorpe Elland Nechells Neepsend Shef y Winco Bank Stocksbridge Oldbur Feckenham y Willenhall Cellarhead Kitwell Bushbur Stalybridge Macclesfield Bredbur Whitegate Rugeley Daines ood Ocker Hill Rochdale Penn Ferry Fiddlers Bishops W Ironbridge Kearsley South Manchester Carrington Frodsham Penwortham ashway Farm W Shrewsbury Quay Rainhill Rocksavage Legacy Kirkby Connah’s Capenhurst Deeside North Hoyle Shell Flats Burbo Bank Bodelwyddan g Rhyl Flats Ireland g awsfynydd To Tr Gwynt y Mor Dinorwi Ffestinio Pentir Wylfa
Ireland B8 To The North Midlands to boundary B8 is one of the wider boundaries that intersects the centre of GB, separating the northern generation Northern England Scotland, including zones and North Wales from the Midlands and southern demand centres. The boundary circuits, double 400kV major four crosses Figure B8.1 of boundary B8 Geographic representation Boundary B8North – Midlands to 69 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201670 Drakelow circuit. Ironbridge circuits overloads the Cellarhead– &Legacy– Legacy–Shrewsbury the on fault loading limit at 10.9 athermal is capability boundary The 2040. 2016 from B8 to boundary for transfers required the shows above B8.2 Figure requirementsBoundary and capability Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB8 Figure B8.2 20 20 10 10 16 16
GW 18 12 12 14 14 0 2 4 6 8 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020
GW when a double-circuit 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015
2026 2028 closed earlier than expected. are plants 2021as year after significantly Gone Green between transfer required The out. flattens and declines it which after 2033 until increase The The the Consumer Power Slow the Progression 2028, when until transfer required the in increase steady a is there scenarios energy future all Across No Progression Gone Green 2030 2032 2015 and 2016 starts to diverge 2015 to diverge 2016 and starts Base Capability scenario continues to scenarios flatten out and and out flatten scenarios 2034 scenario decreases. 2036 2038 and and 2040 Chapter three B9 Norfolk l Scroby sands Sizewel Dudgeon Norwich Main Sheringham Shoal l Bramford riton Knol T Race Bank Necton Docking Shoal Lincs ynn L e Inner Dowsing lpol y Humber Gateway Wa est h Burwell Main Sutton Bridge Grimsby W Humber Refiner Hedon North Spalding Saltend Sout Bicker Fen h Eaton Socon Humber Bank Sout m n Grendon Killingholme Cotta est Burto W Keadby h Drax Mars Thorpe High Marnham fe Eggborough n Enderby Brinsworth Staythorpe Thurcroft Ratclif on Soar Aldwarke est Melto including London. Developments in the East the in Developments London. including as such regions, Anglia East the and Coast generation wind offshore of locations the infrastructure network the and connection transfer affect the will requirements, requirements and capability of boundary B9. W Norton Lees Stoke Bardolph l l Drakelow Coventry Ferrybridge m Pitsmoor mpleborough Hams Hal Berkswel Te Willington Chesterfield Bustlehol field City y Jordanthorpe Elland Nechells Neepsend Shef y Winco Bank Stocksbridge Oldbur Feckenham y Willenhall Cellarhead Kitwell Bushbur Stalybridge Macclesfield Bredbur Whitegate Rugeley Daines ood Ocker Hill Rochdale Penn Ferry Fiddlers Bishops W Ironbridge Kearsley South Manchester Carrington Frodsham Penwortham ashway Farm W Shrewsbury Quay Rainhill Rocksavage Legacy Kirkby Connah’s Capenhurst Deeside North Hoyle Shell Flats Burbo Bank Bodelwyddan g Rhyl Flats Ireland g awsfynydd To Tr Gwynt y Mor Dinorwi Ffestinio Pentir Wylfa
B9 Ireland To The Midlands to South boundary B9 separates boundary separates South B9 to Midlands The the and zones northern generation the southern demand centres. The boundary crosses five major 400kV double circuits, transporting power from the north over a long distance the to southern demand hubs, Figure B9.1 of boundary B9 Geographic representation Boundary South to B9 – Midlands 71 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201672 Hams Hall circuit. circuits which overloads the Drakelow– Wood Feckenham–Ironbridge–Bishops 12.3at is limited thermally capability The boundary 2016 from B9 to 2040. boundary for transfers required the shows above B9.2 Figure requirementsBoundary and capability GW Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB9 Figure B9.2 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone GW for a double-circuit fault on the the on fault adouble-circuit GW for 2018
2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015
2026 2028 operation of these interconnectors. the on depending greatly vary will B9 boundary of transfers required the boundary, the of north amount of interconnectors planning to connect replacement by wind generation. Also, with the later and plants existing of closure to early due mainly is B9. This boundary for transfers required year last and year this between gap large is there scenarios energy future all Across 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038 2040 Chapter three B17 275kV. Much of the north275kV. south to power flows seenby boundaries B8 and B9 also putting boundary B17, through straight pass significant loading on these circuits that is not apparenton this boundary’s requirements.
B17 Enderby Staythorpe Ratcliffe on Soar Stoke Bardolph l Drakelow Coventry m Hams Hall Berkswel Willington Bustlehol y Nechells l Oldbur Feckenham Willenhall Cellarhead Kitwel Bushbury
Rugeley B17 Ocker Hill Penn Bishops Wood y Ironbridge Shrewsbur Legacy Enclosing the West Midlands, boundary B17 boundary B17 Midlands, West the Enclosing is heavily dependent on importing power from the North because there is little local generation. Boundary is surrounded B17 by five 400kV double circuits but internally the mostly are Birmingham around and in circuits Figure B17.1 Boundary B17 – West Midlands West – Boundary B17 representation of boundary B17 Geographic and single-line 73 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201674 the future energy scenarios suggest a general limits. The required transfers resulting from voltage minimum SQSS the above to stay circuits, Ironbridge affecting substation’s ability and Legacy–Ironbridge Legacy–Shrewsbury to 7.4limited is capability voltage The boundary compliance B17 2016 from to 2040. boundary for transfers B17.2Figure required the shows above requirementsBoundary and capability GW Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB17 Figure B17.2 10 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018 GW for a double circuit fault on on fault circuit adouble GW for
2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015 2026 2028 boundary capability to capability boundary local demand. support to maintain voltage compliance decreases the support power of reactive reduction resulting poses some challenges for B17. boundary The Reduced availability of local thermal generation demand. local in increase a significant the enclosed thermal generation, rather than from output 2017 to reducing due is –this increase in the requirements importing after 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038 2040
Chapter three e e Whitegat Rugeley Daines ood Acton lham Ocker Hill Rochdal Penn Wa e Padiham Iron n Ferry Fiddlers Bishops W y Ironbridge Hutto Kearsley South Manchester Carrington Quernmor Frodsham m Middleton Penwortham ashway Seabank Far W Heysham Shrewsbur Quay Rainhill l Whitson Rocksavage Legacy k h Stanah Kirkby Par Connah’s Imperia emorfa Tr ff Uskmout Barrow Capenhurst Cilfynydd East Deeside Cardi North Hoyle Rassau Ormonde Burbo Bank Alpha Steel r Upper Boat Aberthaw est of Duddon est lney I & II W Wa e Bodelwyddan g Rhyl Flats Ireland g awsfynydd Pyl To Tr In addition, spur a 275kV traverses north of Trawsfynydd Ffestiniog to pumped storage power station. Most of these circuits are of However, construction. tower double-circuit Pentir and Trawsfynydd within the Snowdonia National Park are connected a single by 400kV circuit,which is the main limiting factor for capacity in this area. Gwynt y Mo Margam Dinorwi Ffestinio Pentir Baglan Bay Wylfa Swansea North Pembroke NW1 NW2 Ireland To NW3
Geographic representation of North Wales boundaries Geographic representation of North Wales Figure NW.1 The onshore network in North Wales Wales North in network onshore The comprises a 400kV circuit ring that connects DeesidePentir, and Trawsfynyddsubstations. the crossing spur 400kV double-circuit A Menai Strait and running the length of Anglesey nuclear decommissioned now the connects power station at Wylfa A short Pentir. to 400kV connects Pentir from spur cable double-circuit station. power storage Dinorwig pumped North – overview Wales 75 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three and Pentir substations. runs along Anglesey between Wylfa crossing the double 400kV circuit that NW1Boundary is a local boundary Geographic andsingle-linerepresentationofboundaryNW1 Figure NW1.1 NW1 –Anglesey Boundary network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201676 To Ireland NW1
Wylfa Pentir Ffestiniog Dinorwi Gwynt yMo Tr To awsfynydd Ireland Rhyl Flats g Bodelwyddan Wa W lney I&II est of Duddon r Burbo Bank North Hoyle Deeside Capenhurst Barrow Connah’s Kirkby Stanah Legacy Rocksavage Rainhill Quay Shrewsbur Heysham W Far ashway
Penwortham Middleton m Frodsham
Quernmor Carrington South Manchester Kearsley Ironbridge y Bishops W Fiddler Ferry
Padiham e Penn Rochdal s ood e NW 1 NW1 DINOR WIG TR AW SFYNYDD PENTIR 1 SHREWSBUR 2 IRONBRIDGE 1 2 BODEL FFESTINIO WYLF BIRKENHEAD Y WYDDAN 2 1 A G 2 1 1 2 EIRGRID 12 DEESIDE 12 LEGACY 1 FRODSHAM 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 ROCKSA 2 RUGELEY CARRINGT CONNAH’ CELLARHEAD QUA VA 2 GE 1 Y ON S 2 1 2 1 DAINES Chapter three
2040
2038 2036 2034 energy scenario. energy Base Capability 2032 2030 stages and within different time horizons. This power station is not expected be to The future energy scenarios all show a similar diverge. they where 2026 until requirement expected generation large-scale only The behind is NW1 a new nuclear power station which appears in the background in two the per as generation background the in No Progression No 2028 2026
Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 2022 2020
2018 Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer MW. If theMW. infrequent infeed loss risk 0 2016
1.0 1.5 2.5 3.0 0.5
2.0 -0.5 GW 77 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity is exceeded, the boundary will need be to reinforced adding by a new transmission boundary. the across route Boundary requirements and capability and Boundary requirements Figure above shows NW1.2 the export requirements for boundary from NW1 2016 2040.to The boundary transfer capability is limited theby infrequent infeed loss risk currently is which SQSS, the in set criterion 1,800 Figure NW1.2 and base capability for boundary NW1 Boundary export requirements Chapter three single circuit. 400kV to Trawsfynydd Pentir and circuit double 400kV to Deeside Pentir the through closemainland to Anglesey and crosses This bisects local boundary the Wales North Geographic andsingle-linerepresentationofboundaryNW2 Figure NW2.1 NW2 Caernarvonshire and –Anglesey Boundary network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201678 To Ireland NW2
Wylfa Pentir Ffestiniog Dinorwi Gwynt yMo Tr To awsfynydd Ireland Rhyl Flats g Bodelwyddan Wa W lney I&II est ofDuddon r Burbo Bank North Hoyle Deeside Capenhurst Barrow Connah’s Kirkby Stanah Legacy Rocksavage Rainhill Quay Shrewsbur Heysham W Far ashway Penwortham Middleton m Frodsham Quernmor Carrington South Manchester Kearsley Ironbridge y Bishops W Fiddler Ferry Padiham e Penn Rochdal s ood e
NW NW2 2 DINOR WIG TR AW SFYNYDD PENTIR 1 SHREWSBUR 2 IRONBRIDGE 1 2 BODEL FFESTINIO WYLF BIRKENHEAD Y WYDDAN 2 1 A G 2 1 1 2 EIRGRID 12 DEESIDE 12 LEGACY 1 FRODSHAM 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 ROCKSA 2 RUGELEY CARRINGT CONNAH’ CELLARHEAD QUA VA 2 GE 1 Y ON S 2 1 2 1 DAINES Chapter three 2040 2038 2036 2034 Base Capability 2032 2030 The future energy scenarios all show a similar requirement until where 2024 they diverge due and time connection of assumptions different to wind interconnector, potential of dispatching boundary. this behind generation nuclear and 2028
2026 Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 2022 2020
GW forGW a double circuit fault on 2018 Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer 2016
1 0 4 3 2 7 6 5 GW 79 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Boundary requirements and capability and Boundary requirements Figure NW2.2 above shows the export requirements for boundary NW2 from 2016 2040.to The boundary capability is thermally limited at 1.4 the Deeside–Pentir the overloads which circuits circuit. single Pentir–Trawsfynydd the Figure NW2.2 and base capability for boundary NW2 Boundary export requirements Chapter three the Treuddyn Tee. Treuddyn the to Trawsfynydd and to Deeside Pentir from circuits double 400kV of pair by a defined is to those behind NW1 and NW2. This boundary for generation further connections in addition NW3Boundary provides transfer capability Geographic andsingle-linerepresentationofboundaryNW3 Figure NW3.1 Merionethshire and NW3 Caernarvonshire and –Anglesey Boundary network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201680 NW3 To Ireland
Wylfa Pentir Ffestiniog Dinorwi Gwynt yMo Tr To awsfynydd Ireland Rhyl Flats g Bodelwyddan Wa W lney I&II est ofDuddon r Burbo Bank North Hoyle Deeside Capenhurst Barrow Connah’s Kirkby Stanah Legacy Rocksavage Rainhill Quay Shrewsbur Heysham W Far ashway Penwortham Middleton m Frodsham Quernmor Carrington South Manchester Kearsley Ironbridge y Bishops W Fiddler Ferry Padiham e Penn Rochdal s ood e NW NW3
3
DINOR WIG TR AW SFYNYDD PENTIR 1 SHREWSBUR 2 IRONBRIDGE 1 2 BODEL FFESTINIO WYLF BIRKENHEAD Y WYDDAN 2 1 A G 2 1 1 2 EIRGRID 12 DEESIDE 12 LEGACY 1 FRODSHAM 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 ROCKSA 2 RUGELEY CARRINGT CONNAH’ CELLARHEAD QUA VA 2 GE 1 Y
ON S 2 1 2 1 DAINES Chapter three 2040 2038 2036 2034 Base Capability 2032 2030 The future energy scenarios all show a similar requirement until where 2024 they diverge due and time connection of assumptions different to wind interconnector, potential of dispatching boundary. this behind generation nuclear and 2028
2026 Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 2022 2020
GW forGW a double-circuit fault 2018 Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer 2016
1 0 4 3 2 7 6 5 GW 81 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Boundary requirements and capability and Boundary requirements Figure NW3.2 above shows the export requirements for boundary NW3 from 2016 2040.to The boundary capability is thermally limited at 5.6 Figure NW3.2 and base capability for boundary NW3 Boundary export requirements on the Trawsfynydd–Treuddyn circuitsTee Deeside–Bodelwyddan the overloads which circuits. Tee Chapter three significant amounts of new generation capacity capacity generation new of amounts significant but future the in to close expected are stations power older the of Some by coal. powered generators thermal of anumber are boundary the Within boundary. alocal considered is and Wales South SW1 encloses Boundary SW1 Geographic representationofboundarySW1 Figure SW1.1 SW1 –South Wales Boundary network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201682 SW1
Pembroke Swansea North Baglan Bay Alverdiscott Margam Pyle Cardiff, and the surrounding industry. from the major cities, including Swansea and South Wales includes demand consumptions tidal. and gas by wind, powered are expected to connect, including generators Aberthaw Upper Boat Alpha Steel Hinkley Poin Rassau Cardif East Cilfynydd Uskmout f T Tr aunton t emorfa Imperia Park h Whitson l Bridgwater Seabank Iro Wa nA lham cton Melksham Minet y Chapter three
2040
2038 2036 2034 Base Capability 2032 2030 in later years in some of the scenarios. The rapid increase in requirements after across2025 all scenarios is caused the by plants, thermal new some of connection generation renewable of amounts large and 2028
2026
Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 2022 2020
GW forGW a fault on the Rassau– 2018 Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer 2016
1 0 4 3 2 8 7 6 5 GW 83 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Boundary requirements and capability and Boundary requirements aboveFigure shows SW1.2 the export requirements for boundary from SW1 2016 2040.to The boundary capability is thermally limited at 3.9 Cilfynydd–Whitson–Seabank and Walham circuits. remaining the overloading circuits The plots for the future energy scenarios reduction short-term a show sensitivities and in requirements between and 2020 2018 due the to expected closures of some generation. existing Boundary export requirements and base capability for boundary SW1 Boundary export requirements Figure SW1.2 Chapter three East Englandtransmissionnetwork Figure 3.7 generation and demand currently connected. boundaries are considered local, based on the Both area. the in network transmission the cover EC5 and EC3 boundaries transmission The Suffolk. and Norfolk of counties the The East of England region includes Introduction boundaries Eastern by requirements region: and capability Network 3.7 network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201684
Ealing Willesden Mill Hill Sundon Socon Eaton Chessington St Johns W ood Wymondley Bicker Fen Rye House Elstree Brimsdown Wimbledon Spalding North T ottenham City Rd Cross New We st Ham Bridge Sutton Rowdown Beddington Burwell Main Redbridge Hurst Hackney Barking Cross Wa Pelham Wa We st ltham lpole Thurrock Littlebrook Eas Northfleet Wa Braintre t L T rle Singlewel ynn ilbur y y l e Kingsnorth Rayleigh Main Docking Shoal Necton Grai Kemsley Coryton n North Canterbur Kentish Flats Cleve Hill Gunfleet SandsI&II Bramford of power flows. power of magnitude the to reflect to scale drawn not are and directions flow power illustrate to meant are diagram the in arrows The to 2026. up to come years the in directions flow power likely shows below figure The y Sheringham Shoal Norwich Main Sizewel Thanet London Scroby sands l Array Greater Gabbard500M Greater Gabbard2ndpart To Netherlands W
Chapter three 2035 2030 2025 GW couldGW Consumer Power Consumer 2020 2035 2030 Interconnectors and storage 2025 No Progression No 2020 2035 Regional drivers Regional that highlight scenarios energy future The generation between 6.5 and 18 be expected connect to within this region by 2035. All scenarios show that, in the years to generation, carbon low of amounts large come, predominantly wind, can be expected to be also can generation fuel Fossil connect. The region. this within connect to expected total generation in all the scenarios will exceed the local demand; thus East Anglia willbe a region. exporting power Fossil fuel Fossil 2030 2025 2020 Slow Progression Slow 2035 2030 2025 Gone Green Gone 2020
16 2015/ Low carbon (including renewables) (including carbon Low
2 0 8 6 4
14 12 18 16 10 20 Primary challenge statement challenge Primary contracted generation of amount large the With offshore predominantly connected, be to wind and nuclear, in the area, supply may significantlyexceed the local demand which voltage loading, heavy cause circuit could depressions stabilityand issues. 85 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Figure EB.1 Generation mix scenarios for the Eastern boundaries region Generation mix scenarios for the Eastern boundaries Chapter three Gross demandscenariosfortheEasternboundariesregion Figure EB.2 The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201686 3.0 5.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 2015
2020 e ree 2025 2030 2035 2015 r re 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015 C er er C er 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015 r re 2020 2025 2030 2035 Chapter three
will assess the impact of the above NOA2 the increase in export requirement under under requirement export in increase the conditions. post-fault It is also important ensure to that all the transmission routes in the area will have sufficient thermal capacityto cope with Stability becomes an additional concern additional an becomes Stability connect, generators large the of some when generation the of size the further increasing group in the area connected the to network. Losing a set of double circuits when a fault occurs will lead significant to increases in the this between connection the of impedance remainder the and group generation large of the system. As a result, the system may be exposed a risk to of instability as power transfer increases. The accordingly and scenarios potential mentioned the for reinforcements preferred recommend region. transmission England of East
GW by 2035. by GW The to voltage depressions within the region. the within depressions voltage to The East England region is connected by by connected is region England East The several sets of long 400kV double circuits, Pelham/Braintree, Bramford including and Fen North/Bicker Walpole–Spalding any on fault a During Walpole–Burwell Main. one set of these circuits, power exported from this region is forced reroute. to This causes some of the power flow to through a much longer distance reach to the rest of the predominantlysystem, the Greater London the via networks England East South and East Anglia region. As a result, the reactive power losses in these high impedance routes will also increase. If these losses are not compensated they will eventually lead graph above shows snapshots of the peak demand for the east England across the four scenarios. energy future different which to network transmission Anglia East The will generation scenarios energy future the The circuits. double 400kV six has connect this within generation in increase future potential region could force the network experience to stability issuesvery loading, heavy circuit and voltage depressions – for power transfer scenarios from East Anglia London to and follows: as explained is This England. East South Peak demand in the Eastern region is expected lieto between 3.5 and 4.5 87 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three Norwich and Main).Norwich Walpole–Burwell Walpole North), and two double circuits (Walpole– Fen(Walpole–Bicker and Walpole–Spalding circuits out of Walpole; two single circuits the Walpole substation. It includes six 400kV EC3Boundary is surrounding a local boundary Geographic andsingle-linerepresentationofboundaryEC3 Figure EC3.1 EC3 –Wash Boundary network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201688 Bicker Fen Spalding North Bridge Sutton EC3 Wa
lpole Inner Dowsing L ynn Lincs Docking Shoal Necton Race Bank Sheringham Shoal Norwich Main Dudgeon boundary assessment.boundary network, which is why it is selected for local Coast East the along flows power network high generation connections, high demand and significant supporting in substation acritical is Scroby sands EC3 Chapter three
2040
2038 2036 2034 Base Capability 2032 2030 of the boundary increase across all future future all across boundary increase the of present the that but scenarios energy capability should be sufficient for at least The plots show that the export requirements the next few years. 2028
2026 Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 2022 GW forGW a double circuit 2020
2018 Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer 0 2016
1.0 1.5 2.5 3.0 0.5 3.5
2.0 -0.5 GW 89 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity to 2040.to The boundary capability is currently a thermal limit at 3.1 double Burton Fen–West Bicker the on fault Walpole–Burwell the overloads which circuits circuits. Main Boundary requirements and capability and Boundary requirements Figure EC3.2 above shows the export requirements for boundary EC3 from 2016 Figure EC3.2 Boundary export requirements and base capability for boundary EC3 Boundary export requirements Chapter three towards London. power export mainly that circuits 400kV four crosses It Bramford. and Sizewell Norwich, at most of East Anglia with 400kV substations EC5Boundary is a enclosing local boundary Geographic andsingle-linerepresentationofboundaryEC5 Figure EC5.1 EC5 Anglia –East Boundary network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201690 Littlebrook Inner Dowsing Eas Northfleet Wa Braintre t L Ti rley Singlewel ynn lbur Lincs y l e Kingsnorth Rayleigh Main Docking Shoal Necton Grai Kemsley Race Bank Coryton n North Canterbur Kentish Flats Cleve Hill Gunfleet SandsI&II Bramford y Sheringham Shoal Norwich Main Dudgeon
Sizewel Thanet London Scroby sands l Array Greater Gabbard500M Norfolk Greater Gabbard2ndpart W EC5 To Netherlands EC5 for new nuclear generation development. selected sites approved the of one is Sizewell east. The existing nuclear generation site at to the directly lies that zone 3offshore Round wind projects including the large East Anglia offshore of connection the for attractive are Anglia East around waters and coastline The EC5 Chapter three
2040 2038 2036 scenario. 2034 Base Capability 2032 2030 for needs today’s but potentially grossly short of the future capability requirement needs. The offshore wind and nuclear generation generation nuclear and wind offshore The boundary this behind connect to contracted greatly increase the transfer capability particularly is This prominent requirements. with Green the Gone The present boundary capability is sufficient 2028
2026
Consumer Power 2015 Power Consumer Gone Green 2015 2015 Progression Slow 2015 Progression No 2024 GW forGW 2022 2020
2018 Gone Green 2016 2016 Progression Slow 2016 Progression No 2016 Power Consumer
2016 2 0 8 6 4 14 GW 12 16 10 91 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity to 2040.to The boundary capability is currently a voltage compliance limit at 3.8 Bramford– the on fault double-circuit a Bramford–Braintree–Rayleigh and Pelham circuits. Main Boundary requirements and capability and Boundary requirements Figure EC5.2 above shows the export requirements for boundary EC5 from 2016 Figure EC5.2 Boundary export requirements and base capability for boundary EC5 Boundary export requirements Chapter three South Englandtransmissionnetwork Figure 3.8 Central Europe is connected along the South around the south coast. Interconnection to run that circuits of set long the and estuary of London, generation around the Thames area demand high the includes region The B13, B14, boundaries SC2. SC1 and includes The South of England transmission region Introduction boundaries Southern by requirements region: and capability Network 3.8 network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201692
Indian Queens
Landulph Langage Abham Hinkley Point Exeter T aunton Axminster Bridgwater Seabank Chickerel l Iron Acton Mannington Melksham Minet y Marchwood Nursling Fawley Bramley Botley W Didcot Cowley Culham ood Amersham Main to power flows but are not to scale. not to are but flows to power illustration to give meant are diagram the in arrows to The 2026. up to come years the in directions flow power likely shows below figure The Europe. with power export and import to both able by being region the in flows power on influence significant East Coast and this interconnection has Lovedean W Fleet est W Leighton Laleham Buzzar Iver eybridge d Wa Ealin Willesden tford Mill Hill Chessington g St Johns W ood Wymondley Rye House Elstree Brimsdown Wimbledon T ottenham City Rd Bolney Cross New We st Ham Rowdown Beddington Redbridge Hurst Hackney Barking Cross Wa We Rampion st ltham Thurrock Littlebrook East Northfleet Wa Ti rle Singlewel lbury y Ninfield l Kingsnorth Rayleigh Main Grai Kemsley Coryton n North Canterbur Kentish Flats Dungeness Cleve Hill Gunfleet SandsI&II Sellindge y Thanet London Array Greater Gabbard2ndpart To France
To Netherlands Chapter three 2035 2030 2025 Consumer Power Consumer 2020 GW powerGW injection or 2035 2030 Interconnectors and storage 2025 No Progression No 2020 GW of connectionGW capacity in the south GW increasedGW demand. This variation could 2035 efficiency and increasing embedded generation snapshots shows below graph The capacity. of the peak demand for the south for the four scenarios. energy future different Regional drivers Regional The future energy scenarios suggest that up 15 to and interconnection European from be could energy storage. As interconnectorsand storage their see could south the bi-directional, are capacity act as up 15 to 15 place a very heavy burden on the transmission network. Most of the interconnectors will be connected south of boundary so SC1 the impact on them can be seen later in this requirements. SC1 the from chapter Fossil fuel Fossil 2030 2025 2020 Slow Progression Slow 2035 2030 2025 Gone Green Gone 2020
16 2015/ Low carbon (including renewables) (including carbon Low
0 5 15 10 25 20 30 Peak demand in the south as seen the by transmission network is not expected to change significantly but some reduction may energy consumer greater to due expected be Primary challenge statement challenge Primary along developments interconnector European the south coast could potentially drive very high circuit flows leadingto circuit overloads and issues. management voltage 93 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Figure SB.1 Generation mix scenarios for the Southern boundaries region Generation mix scenarios for the Southern boundaries Chapter three Gross demandscenariosfortheSouthernboundariesregion Figure SB.2 The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201694 circuits to Lovedean. significant voltagedepression along the be could there and overload may circuits fault south of Kemsley, then the south-east circuit adouble is there and continent the from If the south-east interconnectors are importing depression in London and the south-east. voltage to lead also may flows power and be thermally overloaded. The high demand circuitsthe feeding northern London will then London through and into both drawn is power demand high that time same the at to Europe power export interconnectors future connections and their behaviour. If the by driven issues of anumber see potentially could network southern the future, the In relatively long distances between substations. the west the network becomes more radial with towards and there below but estuary, Thames (B14) the London and around and in meshed The transmission network in the south is heavily 20.0 22.0 16.0 18.0 10.0 14.0 12.0 8.0 6.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 2015
2020 e ree 2025 2030 2035 2015 r re 2020 2025
2030 2035 South of England transmission region. recommend preferred reinforcements for the mentioned potential scenarios and accordingly The direction. one in predominantly is flow power directions which is different from today when both in flows power large to support able be SC1, to B13 need and SC2 will boundaries interconnector and generation connections the areas surrounding Hinkley. With new reinforcing require also may Hinkley at units The connection of the new nuclear generating circuits. southern the of many on expected network reinforcement. Overloading can be orimporting exporting without simultaneously be unable to all interconnectors support connections, the south region will potentially With future additional interconnector 2015 C er er C er NOA2 2020 will assess the impact of the above above the of impact the assess will 2025 2030 2035 2015 r re 2020 2025 2030 2035
Chapter three
B13 and demand. The boundary is currently an being demand the with importing boundary, demand peak at generation the than higher of connection potential the With conditions. the to interconnectors and generation new and nuclear new including – West South wind generation – the boundary is expected changeto export to power more often import. than B13 y Bramle g Fawley Nurslin Marchwood Melksham Mannington Chickerell Bridgwater emorfa Axminster aunton Tr T ff East Cardi Exeter Hinkley Point Abham Aberthaw 3 Langage B1
Alverdiscott Landulph 3 B1 Indian Queens Wider boundary is defined B13 as the southernmost tip of the UK below the Severn the in Point Hinkley encompassing Estuary, South West and stretching as far east as boundary circuits The crossing Mannington. double Melksham to Point Hinkley the are Nursling to circuits Mannington the and circuit and The Fawley. southwest peninsula is a generation localised of level high a with region Figure B13.1 Boundary B13 – South West West – South Boundary B13 representation of boundary B13 Geographic and single-line 95 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB13 Figure B13.2 The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201696 Mannington circuits. and Nursling–Mannington -3.0 is voltage capability limited boundary at B13 2016 from The to 2040. boundary for transfers required the B13.2 shows Figure above requirementsBoundary and capability GW -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 0 3 4 GW for a double-circuit fault on the Fawley– the on fault adouble-circuit GW for 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015
2026 2028 additional capacity. boundary require and exports to large it to push likely B13 is to boundary close to connect wishing generators new potential the of size large The needs. short-term the meet to sufficient is the capability current boundary importing that and requirements, boundary in variation interconnectors connects there is little very or generation new until that seen be can It 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 2036 2038 2040
Chapter three
B14/B14e to feed the interconnectors along the south south the along interconnectors the feed to coast. The North London circuits can also be a bottleneck for power flow from the East Coast and East Anglia regions as power flows through London from north south. to stressed when the European interconnectors interconnectors European the when stressed London through drawn is power as export e l y ilbury Singlewel rle T Braintre Wa Northfleet East Littlebrook e Thurrock ltham t West Pelham Wa Cross Barking Hackney Hurs Redbridg Beddington Rowdown w West Ham Ne Cross City Rd ttenham To mondley Wimbledon Brimsdown Elstree Rye House ood Wy W St Johns g Chessington Sundon Mill Hill tford Willesden Ealin
Wa B14 eybridge Iver Buzzard Laleham Leighton est W Fleet W Boundary B14 encloses London and is and London encloses Boundary B14 characterised high by local demand and a energy London’s generation. of amount small 400kV and surrounding on import heavily relies circuits.275kV The circuits entering from the north can be particularly heavily loaded at peak further are circuits The conditions. demand Figure B14.1 Boundary B14 – London Boundary B14 representation of boundary B14 Geographic and single-line 97 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundaryB14 Figure B14.2 The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember201698 to generation changes. follow the demand with little deviation due Future Energy Scenario requirements mostly dictated by the contained demand, the mostly is boundary this across transfer the As Cross circuits. circuit fault on the House–Waltham Pelham–Rye 12.3 at constraints voltage by limited currently is capability boundary The B14 2016 from to 2040. boundary for transfers required B14.2 the shows Figure above requirementsBoundary and capability GW 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 2016 Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020 GW for adouble- GW for 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015
2026
2028 boundary requirement than the Gone the Green than requirement boundary The supply London demand. to remains capacity circuit less as capability circuit loading which decreases the boundary London. This increases the north London GB which draws power southwards across to interconnectors exporting power out of circuits. Consideration has also been given alleviates loading stress on the North London This to GB. power export may interconnectors during peak demand conditions the European Our future energy scenarios consider that in that scenario. areboundary expected to continue operation as the few conventional plants within the Slow Progression 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 shows a lower alower shows 2036 2038
2040
Chapter three France To SC1 Thanet y Sellindge Cleve Hill Dungeness Kentish Flats Canterbur North n Coryton Kemsley Grai Kingsnorth l y Ninfield n ilbur Singlewel T Northfleet East Littlebrook Thurrock st Rampio We Barking Hurst Beddington Rowdown st Ham We New Cross Bolney City Rd Wimbledon ood W St Johns g Chessington Willesden Ealin eybridge Iver Laleham est W Fleet W Lovedean ood Botley W Bramley Fawley Nursling activity can significantly influence the boundary power The flow. current interconnectors Franceto and the Netherlands connect at the Crossing respectively. Grain and Sellindge boundary are three 400kV double circuits with one in the east, one west and one in the middle Bramley. and Fleet between Marchwood Melksham Mannington Acton Iron Chickerell Seabank Bridgwater Whitson h emorfa Axminster aunton Tr T ff Uskmout East Cardi Exeter Hinkley Point Alpha Steel Abham Aberthaw e Pyl Margam Langage Alverdiscott Landulph
Indian Queens SC1 The South Coast boundary runs SC1 parallel with the South Coast of England between the Severn and Thames Estuaries. times At of peak winter GB demand the power flow is typically north south to across the boundary, with more demand enclosed in the south of the boundary Interconnector supporting generation. than Figure SC1.1 Boundary Coast – South SC1 of boundary SC1 Geographic representation 99 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundarySC1 Figure SC1.2 The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016100 at 5.6at is currentlycapability limited by thermal loading boundary The to south. north from boundary the across flow power represent values Positive 2016 SC1 from to 2040. boundary for scenarios 2016 energy the from future produced transfers required the SC1.2 shows above Figure requirementsBoundary and capability from importing power to export. Some of the the of Some to export. power importing from 4 A 2 SC1. across transfers power the on impact amassive have to Europe interconnectors The circuits. Bramley–Didcot
GW of difference on the boundary if it moves moves it if boundary the on GW difference of GW -6 -4 -2 2 0 4 6 8 GW interconnector such as IFA can make make IFA as can such GW interconnector 2016 GW for a double-circuit fault on the the on fault adouble-circuit GW for Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020 2022 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015 2026
2028 outside current network capability. 10 exceed could transfers capacities suggest that power boundary rated their at operating interconnectors the of sensitivities Credible values. high very at to peak seen not are transfers the so interconnectors the on loading high place not does transfers required of calculation SQSS The north. and south flow power from swing requirements the as transfers required the in seen be The volatility of interconnector activity can SC1 by 2030. below connect to 15 up that suggest scenarios energy future GW of interconnector capacity could could capacity GW interconnector of 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 GW which is well well is GW which 2036 2038
2040
Chapter three
SC2 Netherlands To France To Greater Gabbard 2nd part can be restrictive due circuit to ratings and issues. voltage cause are interconnectors and generation Additional which SC2 below connection for contracted region. the on burden additional place can A fault at either end of the route can cause it all puts which feeder radial long a become to which circuits two remaining the on loading SC2 Array London Thanet Sellindge Gunfleet Sands I&II Cleve Hill Dungeness Kentish Flats Canterbury North SC2 n Coryton Kemsley Grai Rayleigh Main Kingsnorth e l y Ninfield lbur Singlewel rley Ti t Braintre Wa Northfleet Eas Littlebrook Thurrock ltham st Rampion We Wa Cross Barking Hackney Hurst Redbridge Beddington Rowdown st Ham We New Cross Bolney City Rd ottenham T Wimbledon Brimsdown Elstree Rye House Wymondley ood W St Johns g
Chessington Mill Hill tford Willesden Ealin Wa eybridge Iver Buzzard Laleham Leighton est W Fleet W SC2 Lovedean Amersham Main Culham Cowley Didcot The new South East Coast boundary SC2 boundary SC2 Coast East South new The is a subset of the boundary SC1 created to capture transmission issues specifically in the south part of the network between Kemsley and Lovedean. The relatively long 400kV route between Kemsley and Lovedean feeds significant demand and connects both large Europe. to interconnection and generators Figure SC2.1 Boundary East – South SC2 Coast representation of boundary SC2 Geographic and schematic 101 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three Required transferandbasecapabilityforboundarySC2 Figure SC2.2 The electricity transmission network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016102 capacity could connect below SC1 by 2026. below connect could capacity to 5.4 up that suggest scenarios energy future The to export. import from moves it if boundary the on difference a2 as SC2 across transfers power the on impact amassive have Europe with interconnectors The voltage limited stability at 3.3 boundary. is capability currently The boundary by the enclosed area east south the of out flows power exporting represent values Positive 2016 from SC2 to 2040. boundary for transfers required the shows SC2.2 above Figure requirementsBoundary and capability GW -1 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 2016 GW interconnector can make 4 make can GW interconnector Consumer Power 2016 No Progression 2016 Slow Progression 2016 2016 Green Gone 2018
2020 GW of interconnector GW interconnector of 2022
GW. 2024 No Progression 2015 Slow Progression 2015 2015 Green Gone Consumer Power 2015 GW of GW of 2026 2028 outside current network capability. 6 exceed could transfers capacities suggest that power boundary rated their at operating interconnectors the high values.very Credible of sensitivities at to peak seen not are transfers the so interconnectors the on loading high place not SQSS calculation of required transfers does The significantly. around move requirements the as transfers required the in seen be The volatility of interconnector activity can 2030 2032 Base Capability 2034 GW which is well well is GW which 2036 2038 2040 Chapter three
– the winter peak – with reduced power power reduced with stabilitySystem – demand and a tendency for higher system fewer months, summer the during voltages has condition This operate. will generators a tendency reduce to the dynamic stability of the NETS, so we usually analyse network demand minimum summer stability for periods. key other as well as conditions profiles Generation is when the greatest number of generators are operational; at other times of the year Voltage management – at times management of lowVoltage power reactive low especially demand demand the voltages on the NETS can increase naturally due capacitive to gain and transmission loaded lightly the of need voltages High networks. distribution beto controlled in order avoid to voltages and ratings equipment above rising damaging the equipment. There must and compensation reactive enough be effective allow to options switching control. voltage This would normally represent the most condition. onerous the number of generators running can be greatly reduced. Variation generator of the in higher much be can operation undergo generators because summer reduced is demand peak maintenance, more becomes generation intermittent and sporadic. ensure We that all regions are adequately supported at all times.
– the current-
carrying typically circuits reduces capability of capability the as seasons warmer the during of circuit dissipate to heat is reduced. The rating of a typical 400kV overhead line may be per 20 cent lower in the summer than in Thewinter. use of dynamic circuit ratings is circuit change actively to considered being conditions. monitored on based ratings Seasonal circuit ratings circuit Seasonal in this chapter focuses on winter peak power flows and winter peak capability.to However, ensure that the network is adequately designed for full year-round operation, further work is done on evaluating other key times of the summer peak, summer include can This year. minimum and other times such as autumn and spring peaks. The type of power transfer limits such remain, will network the with associated However, stability. and voltage thermal, as the absolute limits of the network would be change. to expected factors Seasonal constraints why reasons many are There manifest themselves at times other than the to changes due including peak winter network configuration, generation and demand outage equipment transmission patterns, transmission of characteristics the or patterns temperatures. ambient to related equipment year- whole on based system the Evaluating future a allow will conditions planning round network design be to the most economic and efficient based expectedon full year- operation. round Year-round capability Year-round Introduction capability network the of presentation The 3.9 103 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter three include: investigated issues Potential generation and demand backgrounds. associated and year of times different account into taking analysed been has network The south. the from supply on dependent very become will are unavailable the electricity demand northern farms wind the and close generators nuclear the if but generation, other some and storage remain in the including north hydro, pumped output. Some other generation will types farm wind on dependent very be will north the close they once and life of end reaching are generators nuclear The plant. hydro some by supported generators nuclear ageing predominantly supplied by wind farms and including Scotland. area is The northern now B7a north, boundary from network the of part northern the considers study case This system operability. ensure continued and demand security we consider year-round conditions to (highlighted in the previous section), peak winter at assessments as well As below. outlined briefly is capacity, year-round on based evaluated been recently has which north, the of study A case security Northern study: Case network transmission electricity The Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016104 synchronous machines. of to ashortage due itself present Stability leading to high voltages. when the network can be lightly loaded, generation and demand conditions, Summer minimum summer circuit ratings. system access requirements and reduced to seasonal due network adepleted and generation northern of adeficit with demand peak Summer generation. northern of adeficit with demand peak Winter – system may instability – security of winter peak peak winter of –security – security of summer peak peak summer of –security – under low low –under
identified: been have From the investigations the following points to ensure system security is maintained. is security system to ensure appropriate as taken actions and change for The situation will continue to be monitored at Peterhead, Torness and Hunterston. and Torness Peterhead, at generation further from and Scotland, across schemes hydro and storage pumped various from provided be can This output requires a variety of generation. generation wind low of times at Scotland Scotland. Securing the peak demand in across issues supply of security short-term managing in role avital play still Scotland in plants nuclear and thermal Large low fault-level in the future. with associated issues and overloading circuit some to avoid networks SPT and NGET the of parts some to reinforce need Some generation closures will lead to the network investment will be required. that scenarios some under identified have we However conditions. demand the required limits from peak to minimum of the network can be maintained within part northern the of stability and voltage the that confident are we challenging, While
Chapter four
106
The way forwardThe way four Chapter Chapter 105 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter four The way forward way The The The The development Continuous 4.1 while the Options Assessment Network requirements transmission future communicating in the NETS. NETS. the in future development, opportunities and challenges the about stakeholders to our to communicate ETYS the to use best how Ofgem, regulator, our with discuss transmission requirements. We will continue to future recognised those to meet reinforcements network for options preferred SO the recommend 2017) will January in published (to be report Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016106 receive from you,receive from our stakeholders. Planning (ITPR), Regulation and the feedback we and within the industry, the Integrated Transmission as such evolve. we’re changes The developments reflect making ETYS
ETYS now completely focuses on and the NOA the and and our annual planning process continue to continue to planning process our annual and report as a way away as report ( NOA2 ) shown in Figure 4.1. ETYS/NOA 2017 our for timetable indicative An expectations. your to meet documents both shape should we how on views your to hear like We would stakeholder activities programme is
Chapter four NOA3/ ETYS 2018 development
ETYS 2017 published Nov Oct NOA3 methodology submitted to Ofgem Sep
ETYS 2017 document development Aug Jul FES 2017 published bilateral stakeholder meetings. stakeholder bilateral responses to to responses [email protected] operational forums operational consultation events as part of the part of as events consultation seminars customer We areWe always happy listen to our to stakeholders’ views. do We this through: Jun
). , ETYS 2017 form submitted to Ofgem May ETYS form written industry consultation Apr Mar ETYS/NOA Stakeholder engagement/ industry consultation Feb and take part in our written Jan
Dec ETYS 2016 launch survey learn more about the views and opinions of all stakeholders our feedback constructive for opportunities provide and debate with communication two-way open, create let stakeholders know how we have taken their of outcomes the and consideration into views activities. engagement our our stakeholders about assumptions, analyses assumptions, about stakeholders our findings and ETYS 2016 published NOA2 published Nov We welcomeWe your views onthis year’s ETYS and would like know to what you think works well and what you would like us improve. to Please www.surveymonkey. at survey our complete com/r/ETYS2016 consultation (planned for for ETYS April 2017 Our various stakeholder activities are a great way for us to: Figure 4.1 activities programme ETYS/NOA stakeholder 107 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter four The way forward way The reinforcements and not to the enabling works. works. enabling to the not and reinforcements for potential wider transmission system ETYS the in present we results The system. transmission wider the access then can generators connected, Once NETS. to the to connect must be completed to allow local generation 'enabling works'. Enabling works are those that aproject's to complete taken time the on based connection dates to our generation customers 2011, offering February in been have we Since we introduced Connect and Manage NETS. the developing in face we challenges the to understand it use You also Wales. can Electricity Transmission System in England and timeframes for connecting customers to the current and future generation connections and sites, our about more out to find Tool (CCIT) You can use our Customer Connection Interface information in auser-friendlynetwork way. We have interactive an created tool to help you access Improving your experience 4.2 Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016108
only refer to the requirements requirements to the refer only
ETYS website www.nationalgrid.com/etys website ETYS the on CCIT the of version latest the You find can products/connect-and-manage/ Services/Electricity-connections/Industry- at: www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/ Manage and Connect about information more You find can Chapter five 112 110 114
Appendices overview five
Meet team the Glossary Chapter Chapter Disclaimer119 109 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter five Powerflow diagrams C Appendix System technical data B Appendix drawings geographic and System schematics A Appendix overview Appendices Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016110 on the previous year’s development decisions. based are network the in changes expected Gone the Green for routes circuit major along flows power future and present of snapshots show C. These appendix in presented are diagrams flow power peak winter of aset network, transmission the on changes future of impact the To demonstrate provided. also are on the previous year’s development decisions based network the in changes expected The B. appendix in provided are impedances and basic network parameters such as connectivity To allow modelling of the transmission network, used in our analysis. ETYS and boundaries NETS plants shown. The schematics also show the compensation reactive and stations power with the approximate locations of existing and geographic drawings of the current NETS, schematics system of aset Aincludes Appendix scenario. The zones we have have we zones
www.nationalgrid.com/etys at: diagrams the You view can www.nationalgrid.com/etys at: data technical system the You view can www.nationalgrid.com/etys at: drawings geographic the You view can www.nationalgrid.com/etys at: schematics system the You view can
Chapter five
You can findYou out more at: www.nationalgrid.com/etys can viewYou the fault–level data at: www.nationalgrid.com/etys
Appendix gives D indications of peak GB Appendix D levels Fault fault levels at nodal level for the current fault The network. transmission future and levels are at peak generation and demand local investigate to used can and conditions area system strength. 111 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter five following key activities: the performing includes This NETS. the for responsible for developing a holistic strategy ETYS the to publishing addition In development network Electricity [email protected] Electricity Network Development Manager Julian Leslie [email protected] Head of Network Capability (Electricity) Smith Richard Meet the ETYS Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016112 securely and economically. both operated be can system the ensuring development or maintenance activities while NETS for access system Facilitating to offshore electricity network design. Managing the technical activities relating NOA the in annually ITPR arrangements and publishing results new the under investment NETS for options Producing recommendations on preferred transmission system reinforcements. wider to progress need the to assess order in Network Options Assessment (NOA) process The management and implementation of the report. we are are we team
[email protected] Electricity Policy and Performance Manager Graham Stein [email protected] Technical and Economic Assessment Manager Dan Keith Options Assessment Network and analysis Cost–benefit [email protected] Manager Capability System GB Nicholas Harvey Ten Year Statement Electricity and requirements Network about: to discuss us You contact can
Chapter five
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each requires support and information System Operability Framework System ETYS SHE Transmission and SP Transmission SP and Transmission SHE customers. our Asset Management Asset National Grid Electricity Transmission Transmission Electricity Grid National Supporting parties We areWe responsible for a variety of power and generator including issues system Electricity and performance policy HVDC compliance. develop We and produce the 113 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Strategic network planning and producing and planning network Strategic the from many people. Parties who provide our makes that support information and include: possible work year and provide power system models and also works Our analysis. network for datasets of aspects technical the managing include frameworks, electricity European and GB the codes and standards that are applicable to development. network Chapter five Glossary Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016114 DNO CP CHP Acronym CCS CCGT CBA BEIS ACS Contracted generation Climate changetargets Operator Distribution Network Consumer Power and power Combined heat capacity Boundary transfer Boundary allowance Ancillary services Term and storage Carbon capture gas turbine Combined cycle Cost–benefit analysis Industrial Strategy Business, Energy& Department of Average coldspell The CO sources likepowerplantsusedforelectricitygenerationandindustrialprocesses. isolated from theatmosphere. Capture ofCO in thecombustionoffossilfuelsiscaptured, transportedtoastoragelocationand Distribution networkoperatorsownandoperate electricitydistributionnetworks. of consumers,whofocusonimproving theirqualityof life. research anddevelopmentspending.Innovationisfocusedonmeetingtheneeds A Future EnergyScenario. ConsumerPowerisaworldofrelative wealth,fast-paced a transmissionentrycapacity(TEC)figure asa requirement ofsaidcontract. with theNationalElectricityTransmission System(NETS)onagivendate whilehaving A termusedtoreference anygeneratorwho hasentered intoacontracttoconnect tc1-L_2009140EN.01004601-E0001. legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32009L0028&from=EN#n and oftheCouncilEuropean Union,seehttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/ UK targetsare definedintheDirective 2009/28/ECoftheEuropean Parliament Targets forshare ofenergyusesourced from renewable sources. The2020 of oneprocess. Coversarangeoftechnologiesthatachievethis. A systemwhereby bothheatandelectricityare generatedsimultaneouslyaspart formations orforuseinindustrialprocesses. Carbon (CO generator togeneratemore electricity. produce steaminaheatrecovery drivesasteamturbine boilerwhichinturn, generator togenerateelectricity. Theresidual heatfrom thisprocess isusedto Gas turbinethatusesthecombustionofnaturalgasordieseltodrivea This toolcanhelptoprovide acomparativebaseforallprojects tobeconsidered. A methodofassessingthebenfitsagivenproject incomparisontothecosts. of arangedifferent faults. ensuring acceptabletransmissionsystemoperatingconditionswillexistfollowingone on onesideofaboundarytotheregion ontheothersideofboundarywhile The maximumpre-fault powerthatthetransmissionsystemcancarryfrom theregion standards (SQSS). empirical methoddescribedinAppendixFofthesecurityandqualitysupply variations inlevelsofgenerationanddemand.Thisallowanceiscalculatedbyan NETS SQSSeconomyplannedtransferconditiontotakesomeaccountofyear-round An allowanceinMWtobeaddedwholeorparttransfersarisingoutofthe (DECC) whichclosedinJuly2016. were formerlytheresponsibility oftheDepartmentEnergyandClimateChange supplies andpromote actiontomitigateclimatechange.These activities international Strategy (BEIS)workstomakesure theUKhassecure, clean,affordable energy department.TheDepartmentofBusiness,Energy&Industrial A UKgovernment a provider mustmeet. are knownasbalancingservicesandeachservicehasdifferent parametersthat These servicesincludereserve, frequency control andvoltagecontrol. InGBthese ensure thesecurityandqualityofelectricitysupplyacross thetransmissionsystem. Services procured byasystemoperatortobalancedemandandsupply ACS peakdemandfordifferent purposes. exceeded asaresult ofweathervariationalone.There are different definitionsof which givesrisetoalevelofwinterpeakdemandhas50%chancebeing Average coldspellisdefinedasaparticularcombinationofweatherelements Description 2 isthencompressed andtransportedforlong-termstorageingeological 2 ) Capture andStorage(CCS)isaprocess bywhichtheCO 2 canbeappliedtolargeemission 2 produced Chapter five
of a gas-insulated substation, or equivalent point as may be determined by the of a gas-insulated substation, or equivalent point as may be transmission licensees for new types of substation. When offshore, relevant substation. the GEP is defined as the low voltage busbar on the platform ambition is not green is a world where energy scenario. Gone Green A future and embraced introduced by financial limitations. New technologies are restrained targets to be met on time. enabling all carbon and renewable by society, the GB transmission system to a distribution network A point of supply from directly only large industrial loads are or transmission-connected load. Typically connected to the transmission system. development of the (gas) National The GTYS illustrates the potential future System (NTS) over a ten-year period and is published on an Transmission annual basis. of power. 1,000,000,000 watts, a measure 1,000,000,000 watt hours, a unit of energy. fashion, Electric power transmission in which the voltage varies in a sinusoidal the is presently HVAC reverses direction. flow that periodically in a current resulting since it allows the most common form of electricity transmission and distribution, using a transformer. voltage level to be raised or lowered as opposed to The transmission of power using continuous voltage and current for point to point long-distance and/or HVDC is commonly used alternating current. transmission, but various advantages over HVAC subsea connections. HVDC offers converters at each end to change the the use of costly power electronic requires AC. voltage level and convert it to/from Description line which transmission system, this is a transmission In the case of the onshore sharing the same towers for at least one span in SHE consists of two circuits transmission system or for at least two miles system or NGET’s Transmission's transmission system, system. In the case of an offshore in SP Transmission's sharing the same towers consists of two circuits this is a transmission line which for at least one span. natural pattern of metered user’s and commercial A deliberate change to an industrial another party. about by a signal from brought electricity or gas consumption, with the a contractual agreement have that don’t Power generating stations/units electricity They reduce System Operator (NETSO). National Electricity Transmission System. Transmission demand on the National Electricity was established electricity TSOs. ENTSO-E European ENTSO-E is an association of for the Internal Legislative Package Third EU’s and given legal mandates by the aims at further liberalising electricity markets in the EU. Energy Market in 2009, which located primarily of 28 member states that are A political and economic union in Europe. which have been futures credible a range of energy scenarios are The future a set of scenarios They are developed in conjunction with the energy industry. used to frame discussions and now to 2050, and are covering the period from tests. They form the starting point for all transmission network and perform stress operability challenges and to identify future used investment planning, and are potential solutions. of countries that contains England, A geographical, social and economic grouping Scotland and Wales. connects to the national electricity A point at which a generating unit directly to be the busbar transmission system. The default point of connection is taken in the case clamp in the case of an air insulated substation, gas zone separator Gone Green Grid supply point Statement Year Gas Ten Gigawatt Gigawatt hour High voltage alternating current High voltage current direct Double circuit Double circuit overhead line Demand-side response Embedded generation Network of European System Transmission Operators – Electricity Union European energy Future scenarios Britain Great Grid entry point Term GG GSP GTYS GW GWh HVAC HVDC DSR ENTSO-E EU FES GB GEP Acronym 115 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter five Glossary Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016116 Acronym NGET NETS SQSS NETSO NETS MWh MW MVA MITS LV LCPD ITPR IED Network access Merit order Marine technologies Load factor Interconnector Term Transmission plc National GridElectricity Supply Standards Security andQualityof Transmission System National Electricity Operator Transmission System National Electricity Transmission System National Electricity Megawatt hour Megawatt Mega voltamps Transmission System Main Interconnected Low voltage Plant Directive Large Combustion Planning andRegulation Integrated Transmission Directive Industrial Emissions is 1-3Strand,London, WC2N5EH National GridElectricity Transmission plc(No.2366977) whose registered office system securityismaintained. is reduced. Theplanningofthesystemaccessis carefully controlled toensure circuits andequipmentunavailabletheintegrityof system is favourable.With summer andautumnseasonswhenthesystem islessheavilyloadedandaccess Maintenance andsystemaccessistypicallyundertaken duringthespring, system andtheoffshore transmissionsystems. electricity transmissionsystemismadeupof both theonshore transmission transmission systemofGreat Britain.Fortheavoidance ofdoubtthenational A setofstandards usedintheplanningandoperationofnationalelectricity north ofthecountryandScottishPowerTransmission SPTransmission inthesouth. owned byScottishHydro ElectrictyTransmission Ltd(SHETransmission) inthe transmission assetsinEnglandandWales. InScotland,transmissionassetsare National GridactsastheNETSOforwholeofGreat Britainwhileowningthe system operator(SO). transmission companies,whilethesystemasawholeisoperatedbysingle across Britainandnearbyoffshore waters.Itisownedandmaintained byregional the country. Thesystemismadeupofhigh-voltageelectricitywires thatextend high-voltage electricityfrom where itisproduced towhere itisneededthroughout offshore transmissionsystemsofEngland,Wales andScotland.Ittransmits The NationalElectricityTransmission Systemcomprisestheonshore and 1,000,000 watthours,ameasure ofpowerusageorconsumption in1hour. 1,000,000 watts,ameasure ofpower. of theroot meansquare (RMS)voltage,theRMScurrent andafactorof1billionunits. Mega voltamperes istheapparent powerinanelectricalcircuit, equaltotheproduct via singleinterfacepoints. transmission systemsradiallyconnectedtotheonshore transmissionsystem between theonshore systems,andanyoffshore transmissionsystemandexternal interconnectionstransformer connectionstolowervoltagesystems,external system operatedinparallelwiththesupergrid,butexcludesgenerationcircuits, operated inparallelwiththesupergrid,andanyelementsofanoffshore transmission system and,inScotland,the132kVelementsoftheonshore transmissionsystem This comprisesallthe400kVand275kVelementsofonshore transmission An ordered listofgenerators,sortedbythemarginalcostgeneration. (see http://www.emec.org.uk/). streams, tidallagoonsandenergyfromTidal wavetechnologies Electrotechnical Commission(IEC)andtheBritishStandard BS7671:2008 Low voltageisthetypicallybelow1kVaccording toboththeInternational The averagepoweroutputdividedbythepeakoveraperiodoftime. from largecombustionplant. measures tocontrol theemissionsofsulphurdioxide,oxidesnitrogen anddust The LargeCombustionPlantDirective isaEuropean UnionDirective whichintroduced conclusions inMarch 2015. and cross-border electricitytransmissionnetworks.Ofgempublishedthefinal examined thearrangementsforplanninganddeliveringonshore, offshore Ofgem’s IntegratedTransmission PlanningandRegulation(ITPR) project to Europe andallowsupplierstotradeelectricitybetweenmarkets. Electricity interconnectors are transmissionassetsthatconnecttheGBmarket environment post-2015whentheLargeCombustionPlantDirective (LCPD)expires. member statestocontrol andreduce theimpactofindustrialemissionson The IndustrialEmissionsDirective isaEuropean Uniondirective whichcommits Description
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barg. Gas turbines in which air is first compressed in the compressor element before fuel is element before in the compressor compressed Gas turbines in which air is first injected and burned in the combustor. a non-ministerial government Regulatory Authority, independent National The UK’s of existing and future the interests is to protect department. Their principal objective electricity and gas consumers. waters. This term means wholly or partly in offshore breakers circuit transmission system between two or more Part of an offshore and cables, overhead lines which includes, for example, transformers, reactors, transmission circuits. DC converters but excludes busbars and onshore land. wholly on to assets that are This term refers which circuit-breakers transmission system between two or more Part of the onshore cables and overhead lines but excludes includes, for example, transformers, reactors, transmission circuits. and offshore busbars, generation circuits per year. typically occurs at The maximum power demand in any one fiscal year: Peak demand definitions Different 5:30pm on a week-day between December and February. around purposes. used for different of peak demand are Peak when A term to describe a point at which demand is set to the National analysing boundary capability. the power demand. Britain to meet Great of generation across The sources electricity using current A method of converting solar energy into direct semi-conducting materials. of likelihood of operation at time of winter peak A list of generators sorted in order and used by the NETS SQSS. energy background Reactive power is a concept used by engineers to describe the of electric the production (AC) system arising from movement in an alternating current each AC cycle. energy which changes through and magnetic fields. These fields store by a flow of current energy by virtue of a magnetic field produced Devices which store energy by virtue of electric fields power; those which store said to absorb reactive are power. said to generate reactive are the useful energy Power”) provides to as “Active This term (sometimes referred power for power is accompanied by reactive to a load. In an AC system, real any power factor other than 1. during the warmer this reduces Typically, capability of circuits. The current-carrying The rating of a typical heat is reduced. capability to dissipate seasons as the circuit’s 400kV overhead line may be 20% less in the summer than in winter. A term used to describe transformers on the NETS that operate in the 275–400kV range. Description National Electricity the for assessing options for reinforcing The NOA is the process that the sytem operator (SO) (NETS) to meet the requirements System Transmission energy scenarios (FES). of the future its analysis finds from security is a world focused on achieving No Progression Energy Scenario. A Future cost. Withof supply at the lowest possible traditional sources low economic growth, how we use energy. with little innovation affecting of gas and electricity dominate, stations, system consisting of compressor gas transportation A high-pressure terminals gas from NTS pipelines transport offtakes. pipelines, multijunction sites and of 94 to operate up to pressures designed and are to NTS offtakes Open cycle gas turbine Office of Gas and Electricity Markets Offshore transmission Offshore circuit Onshore transmission Onshore circuit Per annum Peak demand Planned transfer Power supply (aka background generation background) Photovoltaic Ranking order Reactive power Real power ratings Seasonal circuit Supergrid transformer Network Options Assessment No Progression National Transmission System Term OCGT Ofgem pa PV SGT NOA NP NTS Acronym 117 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity Chapter five Glossary Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016118 Acronym TSO TO TEC SOF SO SP Transmission losses Transmission circuit System stability System operability System inertia Switchgear Supergrid Summer minimum SP Transmission SHE Transmission Term Operators Transmission System Transmission Owners capacity Transmission entry Framework System Operabiltiy System Operator Slow Progression on aregional ornationallevel,usingfixedinfrastructure. An entityentrustedwithtransportingenergyin theformofnaturalgasorpower Power lossesthatare causedbytheelectricalresistance ofthetransmissionsystem. This iseitheranonshore transmissioncircuit oranoffshore transmissioncircuit. Transmission LimitedandSPTransmission Limited. Great Britain,namelyNationalGridElectricityTransmission, ScottishHydro-Electric A collectivetermusedtodescribethethree transmissionassetownerswithin any auxiliaryloads. power deliverablebyallofthegeneratingunitswithinstation,minus entry point(whichcanbeeitheronshore oroffshore). Thiswillbethemaximum The maximumamountofactivepowerdeliverablebyastationatitsgrid summer minimumdemandconditionsasthisrepresents thelimitingperiod. stability oftheNETS.Therefore network stabilityanalysisisusuallyperformedfor reduced powerfactoroutput.Thisconditionhasatendencytoreduce thedynamic summer monthsfewergeneratorswilloperateandthosethatdoruncouldbeat reduced powerdemandandatendencyforhighersystemvoltagesduringthe With future electricitynetworksandidentifiesmeasures toensure thefuture operability. The SOFidentifiesthechallengesandopportunitieswhichexistinoperationof Electricity Transmission andScottishPowerTransmission. electricity transmissionsysteminScotland,whichisownedbyScottishHydro Forexample, NationalGridoperatesthe necessarily owntheassetsconcerned. a regional ornationallevel,usingfixedinfrastructure. UnlikeaTSO,theSOmaynot An entityentrustedwithtransportingenergyintheformofnaturalgasorpoweron parameters withinpre-defined limitssafely, economicallyandsustainably. The abilitytomaintainsystemstabilityandalloftheassetratingsoperational and speedofrotation. Lowsysteminertiaincreases theriskofrapidsystemchanges. rotating synchronous generatorinertiathatisafunctionoftherotor mass,diameter The property ofthesystemthatresists changes.Thisisprovided largelybythe circuit breakers. switching activities.Thiscaninclude,butisnotlimitedto,isolators/disconnectorsand The termusedtodescribecomponentsofasubstationthatcanbecarryout of 275kVandabove. That partofthenationalelectricitytransmissionsystemoperatedatanominalvoltage May andSeptember. Minimum demandtypicallyoccursataround 06:00amonaSundaybetween The minimumpowerdemandoff thetransmissionnetworkinanyonefiscalyear: at 1AtlanticQuay, RobertsonStreet, GlasgowG28SP. Scottish PowerTransmission plc(No.SC189126)whoseregistered officeissituated target dates. low costlong-termsolutionstoachievedecarbonisation,albeititlaterthanthe growth restricts marketconditions.Moneythatisavailablespentfocusingon A Future EnergyScenario.SlowProgression isaworldwhere slowereconomic is situatedatInveralmondHS,200DunkeldRoad,Perth,Perthshire PH13AQ. Scottish Hydro-Electric Transmission (No.SC213461)whoseregistered office Description
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119 2016 November Statement Year Ten Electricity The information contained within the Electricity the within contained information The Disclaimer Ten Year StatementTen Document”) (“the document charge. without and voluntarily disclosed is The Document replaces the Seven Year Statement Statement Year Seven the replaces Document The Information Offshore Development the and (SYS) Statement (ODIS) and is published in accordance with the relevant Licence conditions. Licence relevant the with National Grid would wish emphasise to that the information must be considered as illustrative only and no warranty can be or is made as the to information the of completeness and accuracy National Neither Document. this within contained nor Gas Grid National Transmission, Electricity Grid the other companies within the National Grid group, nor the directors, nor the employees of any such company shall be under any liability for any error Chapter five Electricity Ten Year StatementNovember2016120 Continuing the conversation
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