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Redegjøring for Og Utvikling Av, Politisk Realisme Forfatter: Oskar Firat Redegjøring for og Utvikling av, Politisk Realisme Masteroppgave i statsvitenskap i Institutt for statsvitenskap Universitetet i Oslo Semester: Høst 2015/ Vår 2016 Ord: 84 579 ii Copyright Oskar Firat Tittel: Redegjøring for og Utvikling av, Politisk Realisme Forfatter: Oskar Firat År: 2016 Masteroppgave i statsvitenskap, Institutt for statsvitenskap, Universitetet i Oslo Trykk: Reprosentralen, Universitetet i Oslo iii Sammendrag I denne Masteroppgaven har jeg som mål om å forsøke å skape en ny teori innenfor den Politisk Realisme fagtradisjonen. Det har dermed blitt lagt vekt på å lage en problemstilling som gir meg denne muligheten på best mulig vis. Problemstillingen er som følge: ”Redegjør for Politisk Realismens fagtradisjoner i Internasjonal Politisk Teori ved å analysere utviklingen og skillelinjene mellom forfatternes bidrag med forskningsmetodebruk av Ide analyse for å forklare staters atferd. Etabler og legg frem en ny teori innenfor Politisk Realisme og test den ut ved hjelp av en Case Studie”. Det har først blitt valgt å foreta en Ideanalyse som gjennomgår og utreder utviklingen og skillelinjene mellom de ulike realisme teoriene. Her har en dimensjonsanalyse blitt brukt for å lage en dimensjonsmatrise som fungerer som et analyseskjema med 5 dimensjoner som til sammen inneholder 16 variabler. Hver dimensjon har et ulikt antall variabler i seg, samt er av ulik betydning hos hver forfatter, og fremviser et saksfelt og aspekt med forskjellig egenskaper som kommer fra deres bokverk som er blitt brukt som primærdata for å forklare staters atferd. Disse realist skribentene og deres bøker er: (”Klassisk Realisme”) Thukydides: Peloponneserkrigen, Niccolo Machiavelli: Fyrsten, Thomas Hobbes: Leviathan (Del 1 og 2), Hans J Morgenthau: Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, (”NeoRealisme”) Kenneth Waltz: Theory of International Politics, John Mearsheimer: The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, (”NeoKlassisk Realisme”) Steven E Lobell, Norrin M Ripsman, Jeffrey W Taliaferro: Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy. Kjennskap til eksisterende teori er nødvendig for å lage en ny realisme teori med fagligforståelse på forhånd. Dette har ført til dannelsen av min nye teori som jeg kaller NeoStructural Realism. For å teste implikasjoner av min nye teori har jeg valgt å forsøke å predikere et utfall. Her har det blitt brukt en ”Pilotstudie” med utgivelse av et forventet hendelsesforløp med ”Test modellen” som er basert på teorien som forutsier et utfall. Dermed gir ”Test modell” en oversikt over empiriske proposisjoner (Case Datasettet) om ulike observasjoner basert på NeoStructural realism og hvordan de skal undersøkes for å bekrefte eller avkrefte den forutsatte hypotesen: Det er en sammenheng mellom en av forklaringsvariablene [”BAHPF” og ”TAR”] og den avhengige variabelen [LEL] under krigen i Libya fra 2010 - 2011. Her utprøves testen på militær intervensjonen i Libya i 2011. Denne testen resulterer i konkluderingen om at hypotesen avkreftes grunnet at det er en for høy verdi tillegg på variabelen ”TAR”. iv v Forord Jeg har lyst rette en stor takk til min veileder Raino Malnes for å gitt meg mange gode råd gjennom min vei i denne Masteroppgaven, og for å ha lest alle de utallige utkastene av de ulike kapitlene [noe han er ganske sikkert lei av nå]. Det bør også gis en takk til Arne Strand (Ex.phil), Øivind Bratberg, Knut Christophersen for samtalene vi har hatt enten fra før av grunnet andre studier eller relatert til denne tekstarbeide. Her burde det også gis honnør og ære til alle de unnlate lærere som fra barneskolen og oppover som har bidratt og hjulpet meg. Dessverre har jeg forsømt deres navn, men deres tilskudd er verdsatt. En takk bør også gå til min Lillebror, Frode Firat som alltid påminner meg om at jeg bør arbeide mer [det er kanskje derfor denne tekstarbeide ble så stor som den ble]. Til slutt vil gi min store takknemlighet til Mamma, Linda Minasyan som har støttet meg gjennom alt. Helt fra Tøyen skole til Masternivå på Universitetet i Oslo. Jeg kunne ikke ha gjort det uten deg [men noe av kvaliteten på maten som ble servert på middagsbordet gjennom disse årene er diskutable og kunne gjerne ha vært utelatt]. Oskar Firat Norge, Oslo, 02.05.2016 vi vii Innholdsfortegnelse 1.0: Innledning .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1: Problemstilling................................................................................................................. 3 1.2: Internasjonal Politisk Teori ............................................................................................. 5 2.0: Forskningsdesign: Metode ............................................................................................... 9 2.1: Metode: Ideanalyse: Dimensjonsanalyse ......................................................................... 9 3.0: Dimensjonsmatrise (Analyseskjema) .................................................................... …....14 3.1: Nasjonal: Styresett og Samfunn .................................................................................... 14 3.2: Internasjonal Politiske Strukturer .................................................................................. 16 3.3: Hensyn til Verdier ......................................................................................................... 19 3.4: Statens interesser og mål .............................................................................................. 21 3.5: Strategi .......................................................................................................................... 22 3.6: Analyse av Realismen .................................................................................................. 25 4.0: Thukydides: Peloponneserkrigen ......................................................................... …....26 5.0: Niccolo Machiavelli: Fyrsten ................................................................................ …....37 6.0: Thomas Hobbes: Leviathan .................................................................................. …....48 7.0: Hans J. Morgenthau: Politics Among Nations .................................................... …....59 8.0: Kenneth Waltz: Theory of international politics ................................................ …....71 9.0: John Mearsheimer: The Tragedy of Great Power Politics ................................ …....87 10.0: Lobell, Ripsman, Taliaferro: Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy 99 11.0: Konklusjon og Analyseskjema av Realismen .................................................. …....113 12.0: Metode .................................................................................................................. …....140 12.1: Forskningsmetodiske utfordringer ............................................................................ 140 12.2: Validitet og Reliabilitet ............................................................................................ 141 13.0: NeoStructural Realism og dens analyserammeverk ....................................... …....143 13.1: Oppbyggingen av Teori ............................................................................................ 147 13.2: NeoStructural Realism .............................................................................................. 149 viii 13.3: Internasjonale systemet: Fra ”Interstate system” til ”Interhuman system” ............... 150 13.4: ”Statens Natur”: Fra like enheter til delevise ulike enheter ...................................... 151 13.5: Fra samlede makt egenskaper til Separasjon av hver enkel makt egenskap ............. 155 13.6: Strukturvilkår prinsipp 4: ”Sikkerhetsfæren” ............................................................ 155 13.7: Interakjsonsforhold: ”Interaction capacity” .............................................................. 162 13.8: Predikasjon av staters atferd ...................................................................................... 167 13.9: Utbygging av Analyserammeverket .......................................................................... 173 13.10: Dimensjonsmatrisen ................................................................................................ 175 14.0: Case Studie Metode ............................................................................................. …....185 14.1: Teori konstruksjon .................................................................................................... 190 15.0: Case Studie Protokollen .................................................................................... …....195 15.1: ”Test modellen”: Avhengig variabel (Observasjon 3.2) ........................................... 195 15.2: ”Test modellen”: Observasjon 1 ............................................................................... 197 15.3: ”Test modellen”: Observasjon 2 ............................................................................... 200 15.4: ”Test modellen”: Observasjon 3.0 og 3.1 (Forklaringsvariablene) ........................... 204 15.5: ”Test modellen”: Hypotese ....................................................................................... 206 15.6: Validitet og Reliabilitet for Case studiet ................................................................... 207 16.0: Krigen i Libya .................................................................................................... …....211
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