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Q3 2010 Iran Oil & Gas Report INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS to 2019

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Q3 2010 Iran Oil & Gas Report INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS to 2019 Q3 2010 www.businessmonitor.com IRAN OIL & GAS REPORT INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 ISSN 1748-4022 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. IRAN OIL & GAS REPORT Q3 2010 INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2019 Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: May 2010 Business Monitor International © 2010 Business Monitor International. Mermaid House, All rights reserved. 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, All information contained in this publication is UK copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 International, and as such no part of this publication Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in email: [email protected] whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any web: http://www.businessmonitor.com means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Iran Oil & Gas Report Q3 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 Iran Oil & Gas Report Q3 2010 CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 7 SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 9 Iran Political SWOT .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Iran Economic SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Iran Business Environment SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Iran Energy Market Overview ........................................................................................................................ 12 Global Oil Market Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 14 Is The Price Right? ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook ....................................................................................................... 16 Short-Term Demand Outlook .................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................................................................................................................................................ 17 Short-Term Supply Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................................................................................................................................................................ 18 Longer-Term Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................ 19 Oil Price Assumptions ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 ................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Table: Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Regional Energy Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 21 Oil Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) .................................................................................................................................................... 22 Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 Oil: Downstream ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ............................................................................................................................................. 24 Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) ....................................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) .......................................................................................................................................................... 26 Liquefied Natural Gas............................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) ............................................................................................................................................... 27 Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 28 Middle East Region .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 Composite Scores................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................................................................. 28 Upstream Scores .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................................. 29 Iran Upstream Rating – Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Iran Upstream Rating – Potential Returns ........................................................................................................................................................... 30 Iran Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns ............................................................................................................................................ 30 Downstream Scores ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................
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