©Tom Perry/CARE

January 2016

CARE PNG El Niño Monitoring Overview of El Niño in Papua (PNG) El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world, depending strongly on location and season. The strongest effects on lowering precipitation are in South-East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean, especially in the dry season (August-November) where severe droughts can prevail (OCHA, 2015).

The last devastating El Niño experienced in PNG was in 1997 and 1998. At the time, it was found that virtually everyone in rural PNG was affected to some extent with an estimate of 40% of people seriously affected. Analysis from a survey in November-December 1997 found 260,000 people in a critical, life threatening situation and an additional 1.9 million consuming limited food. Water scarcity was also a problem with 5,000 people in a critical, life threatening situation with extremely limited water supplies and 363,000 people with minimal amounts of poor quality water available. This was caused by a severe reduction in crop yields due to below average rainfall with up to 80% in many areas.

The 2015-16 El Niño has been a significant event to date, with the Government of PNG estimating up to 2.4 million people across the country (34 per cent of the population) are affected by the drought, of whom 1 million people live in the most severely affected regions. PNG has been experiencing erratic weather patterns since May 2015, including hail and frost in some regions, with being particularly hard hit. Much of the rest of the country has been experiencing a significant reduction in rainfall and unusually hot weather, with the highlands worst affected. As a result of the these projections, CARE began monitoring the potential impacts of El Niño in its areas of operation in Eastern Highlands Province, Morobe, Chimbu and the Autonomous Region of Bougainville in May 2015, tracking indicators such as rainfall, river levels, food crop yields, social indicators and market trends in discussions and cooperation with government and other key stakeholders.

Meteorologists predict that the dry spell will peak in early 2016 (with reduced rainfall expected to continue to at least February or March 2016), but that its impacts are likely to stretch well beyond the end of the El Niño event. Rainfall across PNG remains extremely localised, with some areas in the Highlands having received more regular rain, while in other areas it has remained abnormally infrequent over this period. If no wet season arrives in the Pacific over the coming months, many countries’ water supplies will not be replenished until the following wet season at the end of 2016 or even the beginning of 2017. The UN warns that in past years, this transition from drought to rainfall has led to flooding, crop pests and waterborne diseases.

CARE PNG El Niño monitoring of drought indicators CARE has been monitoring a series of indicators: rainfall, water (river levels in rural areas, town water supplies in urban areas), food crops yields (taro, cassava, banana, kaukau), health incidences (diarrhoeal diseases, typhoid), social indicators (increase in theft), electricity (power outages in urban areas), food prices and market trends. Unlike previous reports, our November, December 2015 and January 2016 drought monitoring report aims to reflect improvements as well as issues that continue to be faced by the more affected population. Information reported was gathered from staff, community, partner, and government sources in Eastern Highlands and Simbu provinces; and Menyamya District in , and Tambul district in Western Highlands Province.

2 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Nino Monitoring – January 2016 Changes in monitored area since October In October, CARE reported a worsening food situation for grassland communities in the highlands of with the return of the rains. As rains continued to fall into the November and December period, fast growing vegetables and greens have done very well. Meals now consist of an abundance of greens and some corn and pumpkin as they mature. However, the more severely food affected households have not yet completely recovered and for the majority of the affected population in the PNG highlands, staple crops have been planted but have not yet matured. Most of the replanting of gardens took place in the November/December period with harvests of the staple sweet potato not expected until March 2016 at the earliest (lower valley areas) and October 2016 for the higher altitude – and subsequently colder – areas. Mid-altitude areas that replanted sweet potatoes in November 2015 are expected to harvest between March and May 2016 while those who planted later are expected to get a harvest much later.

According to the Provincial Disaster Coordinator in , since the return of the rains, the most affected areas are now: Elimbari LLG in , (Severe Water Problem); Tabare and Suai LLGs in SinaSina Yonggomugl District; Salt LLG and Nomane LLG in Karamui – Nomane District; all 3 LLGs in ; Kup LLG in ; and Mitnande LLG in Gembogl District.

In Menyamya where CARE has been actively monitoring the drought situation, November and December 2015 saw a lot of rain fall but not heavy enough to be considered a return to normalcy. The rains however allowed the recharge of dried drinking and cooking water sources. Menyamya Health Centre reports continued cases of diarrheal diseases being experienced and/or reported during this time due to water contamination with pollutants from run-off. However, it is not clear if these are higher rates than normal for this time of year. The starch component of meal portions continues to remain below normal quantities and families depended more on greens for energy. For the more vulnerable families, forgoing of meals so that children could eat was still common over this period. The table below shows monitoring data that CARE has been able to collect to keep stakeholders informed on the changing face of the drought.

3 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Nino Monitoring – January 2016 Monitoring Data

Location Gumine, Sinasina Yonggumugl, Menyamya District, Henganofi, Lufa, Obura and Kundiawa Gembogl Districts, Morobe Province Wonenara, and Districts, Chimbu Province Eastern Highlands Province

Whether it rained and how There was very little rain all throughout In November and early It rained at least four out of seven days frequently and heavily. November. In December, much more rains fell, December, rains fell 2 days every week. however, the place continued to be dry and hot. a week on average. Toward Christmas and January, it rained very heavily for 4 to 5 days a week on average. As rain is expected every day, this still wasn’t normal.

Whether planting took Planting of sweet potato has started in Some planting took place with A small amount of planting took place place and how the crops late December. There was an abundant the irregular rains in September in late October with the return of the are faring. supply of greens. with the majority of planting rains. Most of the planting took place starting in late November and in mid to late December. Greens and December. Vegetables and vegetables are doing very well. Staples greens did very well and people are yet to mature. People are mostly are mostly surviving on this. surviving on greens, beans, and corn.

Whether meals/food Meal proportions haven’t returned to normal Portions of meals have Food consumption is still limited, proportions eaten have yet. Households which have grown cassava are increased but not to normal with vegetables and greens making up returned to normal. surviving on that and also sharing this with levels. Those who were more the larger portion of meals. In some extended family members. Those without a affected and only recently mountainous areas, cooking banana carbohydrate supply have resorted to fruits started replanting their gardens has been plentiful and is supplying the from the bush including the fruit of the mosong are still very much food local markets. kumu tree. People living along the Waghi river stressed. have been consuming fresh fish from the river together with their meals. Whether people are still Generally people are still food stressed and have It is anticipated that things People are still food stressed with some food stressed and when said that if the drought continues for another will start to return to normal saying government rice distributions they foresee returning to 2-3 months, people will either start starving or for some of the population should have been done in November normalcy. social problems such as theft from food gardens by March with the majority and December and not earlier as they will increase. experiencing normalcy in April are now more hungry than before. and May. Whether clean cooking and The main rivers are still being used by people Clean cooking and drinking Clean drinking and cooking water drinking water sources have for everything, from drinking to cooking to water fully returned in mid to sources haven’t returned fully yet in fully returned/recovered. washing. late December. the grassland regions. Water sources were also unsafe with the rains washing faeces and other contaminants into the river systems. Whether coping strategies Theft has been on the rise, especially of garden The situation is improving Coping strategies were very stretched have strengthened or all food. Some individual reports of men having slowly however. Corn and greens in this period with people still only been exhausted. gone without food for a day or two drinking were largely consumed in able to look out for the needs of their only water to survive (although this December. immediate family members. Those who is unverified). could afford to sell food sold at high price. Those depending on cash savings to purchase food were quite exhausted by November. Whether or not there have Like previous months, water borne diseases With the return of the rains, The rains brought with them water been increased incidences remained high in November and December many people experienced borne diseases. Health facilities of waterborne diseases. from Health Centre reports. diarrheal diseases in November recorded high numbers of patients with with improvements felt in diarrheal diseases both in urban and December as water sources rural areas. started to become cleaner.

4 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Nino Monitoring – January 2016 Western Highlands Since the Red Cross Assessment in Tambul-Nebilyer in October, there have been some improvements. PNG Red Cross, IFRC and CARE visited Tambul district. Reports there have stated that the area has been experiencing regular rainfall. Rivers previously dry or substantially reduced water levels have now refilled. The vegetation is somewhat greener although there remain vast areas of brown frost damaged trees. People are planting their gardens. The major feedback was that sweet potato is not ready and will not be harvested until April/May; and although there are greens are available there are no staples and people are struggling to find suitable alternatives. The months of February and March will be the time of greatest need. The National Disaster Centre had provided relief supplies to the District for distribution, but as there were insufficient supplies for the whole district, they were not distributed. In late January, due to community frustrations these supplies were looted.

Overall assessment The situation appears to have slightly improved in some locations and further deteriorated in other places. Apart from frost hit locations, people have noted that government food distributions would fill a hunger gap as they wait for staples to grow. At this time, they have exhausted all their traditional coping mechanisms and have little support to turn to. Even with greens, starch is in short supply and most families have no cash reserves with which to purchase food. Meal sizes and number of times families eat together remains the same as the situation reported in October. Access to water supply improved for many in December but remained unacceptable for those in areas that didn’t receive much rainfall. With planting taking place, the number of highly affected communities should decrease in the second quarter of 2016.

Response efforts In late January 2016, CARE deployed four response teams into Gembogl, Henganofi, and Menmyamya districts to commence response efforts enabled by the DFAT Humanitarian Partnership Agreement funding. This was the first phase of an integrated response and consisted of water, hygiene, and sanitation awareness; immunization top-ups and mop-ups; malnutrition testing of children under five, and WASH non-food-items distribution.

CARE PNG CARE has been working in Papua New Guinea for 26 years (1989-2015) helping remote communities in Emergency Response, WASH, Governance, Sexual, Reproductive and Maternal Health and Women’s Economic Empowerment. Women’s empowerment and gender equality are at the centre of the organisation’s programming and operations. CARE has over 110 international and national staff with management and technical expertise working primarily in four provinces (Eastern Highlands Province, Autonomous Region of Bougainville, Chimbu and Morobe) across the country. CARE PNG’s headquarters is in Goroka, EHP, where approximately 75 staff are based, and CARE also has an office in Buka, ARB with approximately 35 attached staff. There are two project offices, one in Arawa, ARB and one in Menyamya District, Morobe Province.

5 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Nino Monitoring – January 2016 CARE AUSTRALIA ABOUT CARE 1800 020 046 CARE works with poor communities in developing countries [email protected] to end extreme poverty and injustice. care.org.au ABN: 46 003 380 890 Our long-term aid programs provide food, clean water, basic healthcare and education and create opportunities for people to build a better future for themselves. PNG OFFICE We also deliver emergency aid to survivors of natural PO Box 1157 disasters and conflict, and help people rebuild their lives. Goroka We have 70 years’ experience in successfully fighting East Highland Province poverty, and last year we helped change the lives of +675 532 2766 72 million people around the world. 000153

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