©Tom Perry/CARE ©Tom CARE PNG El Niño Monitoring January 2016 Overview of El Niño in Papua New Guinea (PNG) El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world, depending strongly on location and season. The strongest effects on lowering precipitation are in South-East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean, especially in the dry season (August-November) where severe droughts can prevail (OCHA, 2015). The last devastating El Niño experienced in PNG was in 1997 and 1998. At the time, it was found that virtually everyone in rural PNG was affected to some extent with an estimate of 40% of people seriously affected. Analysis from a survey in November-December 1997 found 260,000 people in a critical, life threatening situation and an additional 1.9 million consuming limited food. Water scarcity was also a problem with 5,000 people in a critical, life threatening situation with extremely limited water supplies and 363,000 people with minimal amounts of poor quality water available. This was caused by a severe reduction in crop yields due to below average rainfall with up to 80% in many areas. The 2015-16 El Niño has been a significant event to date, with the Government of PNG estimating up to 2.4 million people across the country (34 per cent of the population) are affected by the drought, of whom 1 million people live in the most severely affected regions. PNG has been experiencing erratic weather patterns since May 2015, including hail and frost in some regions, with Enga province being particularly hard hit. Much of the rest of the country has been experiencing a significant reduction in rainfall and unusually hot weather, with the highlands worst affected. As a result of the these projections, CARE began monitoring the potential impacts of El Niño in its areas of operation in Eastern Highlands Province, Morobe, Chimbu and the Autonomous Region of Bougainville in May 2015, tracking indicators such as rainfall, river levels, food crop yields, social indicators and market trends in discussions and cooperation with government and other key stakeholders. Meteorologists predict that the dry spell will peak in early 2016 (with reduced rainfall expected to continue to at least February or March 2016), but that its impacts are likely to stretch well beyond the end of the El Niño event. Rainfall across PNG remains extremely localised, with some areas in the Highlands having received more regular rain, while in other areas it has remained abnormally infrequent over this period. If no wet season arrives in the Pacific over the coming months, many countries’ water supplies will not be replenished until the following wet season at the end of 2016 or even the beginning of 2017. The UN warns that in past years, this transition from drought to rainfall has led to flooding, crop pests and waterborne diseases. CARE PNG El Niño monitoring of drought indicators CARE has been monitoring a series of indicators: rainfall, water (river levels in rural areas, town water supplies in urban areas), food crops yields (taro, cassava, banana, kaukau), health incidences (diarrhoeal diseases, typhoid), social indicators (increase in theft), electricity (power outages in urban areas), food prices and market trends. Unlike previous reports, our November, December 2015 and January 2016 drought monitoring report aims to reflect improvements as well as issues that continue to be faced by the more affected population. Information reported was gathered from staff, community, partner, and government sources in Eastern Highlands and Simbu provinces; and Menyamya District in Morobe province, and Tambul district in Western Highlands Province. 2 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Nino Monitoring – January 2016 Changes in monitored area since October In October, CARE reported a worsening food situation for grassland communities in the highlands of Papua New Guinea with the return of the rains. As rains continued to fall into the November and December period, fast growing vegetables and greens have done very well. Meals now consist of an abundance of greens and some corn and pumpkin as they mature. However, the more severely food affected households have not yet completely recovered and for the majority of the affected population in the PNG highlands, staple crops have been planted but have not yet matured. Most of the replanting of gardens took place in the November/December period with harvests of the staple sweet potato not expected until March 2016 at the earliest (lower valley areas) and October 2016 for the higher altitude – and subsequently colder – areas. Mid-altitude areas that replanted sweet potatoes in November 2015 are expected to harvest between March and May 2016 while those who planted later are expected to get a harvest much later. According to the Provincial Disaster Coordinator in Chimbu province, since the return of the rains, the most affected areas are now: Elimbari LLG in Chuave District, (Severe Water Problem); Tabare and Suai LLGs in SinaSina Yonggomugl District; Salt LLG and Nomane LLG in Karamui – Nomane District; all 3 LLGs in Gumine District; Kup LLG in Kerowagi District; and Mitnande LLG in Kundiawa Gembogl District. In Menyamya where CARE has been actively monitoring the drought situation, November and December 2015 saw a lot of rain fall but not heavy enough to be considered a return to normalcy. The rains however allowed the recharge of dried drinking and cooking water sources. Menyamya Health Centre reports continued cases of diarrheal diseases being experienced and/or reported during this time due to water contamination with pollutants from run-off. However, it is not clear if these are higher rates than normal for this time of year. The starch component of meal portions continues to remain below normal quantities and families depended more on greens for energy. For the more vulnerable families, forgoing of meals so that children could eat was still common over this period. The table below shows monitoring data that CARE has been able to collect to keep stakeholders informed on the changing face of the drought. 3 care.org.au 1800 020 046 [email protected] CARE PNG El Nino Monitoring – January 2016 Monitoring Data Location Gumine, Sinasina Yonggumugl, Menyamya District, Henganofi, Lufa, Obura and Kundiawa Gembogl Districts, Morobe Province Wonenara, and Goroka Districts, Chimbu Province Eastern Highlands Province Whether it rained and how There was very little rain all throughout In November and early It rained at least four out of seven days frequently and heavily. November. In December, much more rains fell, December, rains fell 2 days every week. however, the place continued to be dry and hot. a week on average. Toward Christmas and January, it rained very heavily for 4 to 5 days a week on average. As rain is expected every day, this still wasn’t normal. Whether planting took Planting of sweet potato has started in Some planting took place with A small amount of planting took place place and how the crops late December. There was an abundant the irregular rains in September in late October with the return of the are faring. supply of greens. with the majority of planting rains. Most of the planting took place starting in late November and in mid to late December. Greens and December. Vegetables and vegetables are doing very well. Staples greens did very well and people are yet to mature. People are mostly are mostly surviving on this. surviving on greens, beans, and corn. Whether meals/food Meal proportions haven’t returned to normal Portions of meals have Food consumption is still limited, proportions eaten have yet. Households which have grown cassava are increased but not to normal with vegetables and greens making up returned to normal. surviving on that and also sharing this with levels. Those who were more the larger portion of meals. In some extended family members. Those without a affected and only recently mountainous areas, cooking banana carbohydrate supply have resorted to fruits started replanting their gardens has been plentiful and is supplying the from the bush including the fruit of the mosong are still very much food local markets. kumu tree. People living along the Waghi river stressed. have been consuming fresh fish from the river together with their meals. Whether people are still Generally people are still food stressed and have It is anticipated that things People are still food stressed with some food stressed and when said that if the drought continues for another will start to return to normal saying government rice distributions they foresee returning to 2-3 months, people will either start starving or for some of the population should have been done in November normalcy. social problems such as theft from food gardens by March with the majority and December and not earlier as they will increase. experiencing normalcy in April are now more hungry than before. and May. Whether clean cooking and The main rivers are still being used by people Clean cooking and drinking Clean drinking and cooking water drinking water sources have for everything, from drinking to cooking to water fully returned in mid to sources haven’t returned fully yet in fully returned/recovered. washing. late December. the grassland regions. Water sources were also unsafe with the rains washing faeces and other contaminants into the river systems. Whether coping strategies Theft has been on the rise, especially of garden The situation is improving Coping strategies were very stretched have strengthened or all food. Some individual reports of men having slowly however. Corn and greens in this period with people still only been exhausted. gone without food for a day or two drinking were largely consumed in able to look out for the needs of their only water to survive (although this December.