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Invesco Real Estate House View H1 2019 North America Market Outlook Invesco Real Estate Global Research Team

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Invesco Real Estate House View H1 2019 North America Market Outlook Invesco Real Estate Global Research Team Invesco Real Estate House View H1 2019 North America Market Outlook Invesco Real Estate Global Research Team Global Asia Pacific Europe North America Timothy Bellman Thomas Au Mike Bessell Mike Sobolik Global Asia Pacific European North American Research Strategist Research Strategist Research Strategist Research Strategist Sabrina Unger Catherine Chen Christian Eder Nicholas Buss Analyst Director Director Senior Director Katherine Seamans Jerry Song Matthew Hall Joshua Bova Project Coordinator Vice President Director Analyst Jade Tan Guy-Young Lamé Brock Lacy Associate Director Director Analyst Lauren van Aanholt Julia Maurer Joyce Galvan Associate Director Analyst Associate Invesco Real Estate locations Atlanta Beijing Dallas Hong Kong Hyderabad London Luxembourg Madrid Milan Munich New York Newport Beach Paris Prague San Francisco Seoul Shanghai Singapore Sydney Tokyo Warsaw Cover image: Austin, TX is a market inclusive of innovation hubs, the key driver of economic growth and office demand. This document is for Professional Clients only in Dubai, Continental Europe (as defined in the important information), Ireland and the UK, for Qualified Investors in Switzerland, for Institutional Investors only in the United States, Australia and Singapore, and for Professional Investors only in Hong Kong and in Japan as defined under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan. In Canada, the document is intended only for accredited investors as defined under National Instrument 45–106. It is not intended for2 andIn vescoshould Real not Estate be distributed House View to, orH1 relied 2019 upon North by, America the public Market or Outlookretail investors. Please do not redistribute this document. Contents Executive summary 1-4 Macro themes 5-7 North American real estate market outlook 8-25 North American real estate strategy and execution 26-27 US real estate investment context – H1 2019 Create durable income; reduce volatility; take execution risk selectively Macro environment: – Fundamentals: Revenue growth is healthy yet is moderating throughout most market segments. – Capital markets: Risk-taking is becoming more selective. Debt capital is plentiful. Investment execution response: – Sectors: Overweight industrial, apartment, and select specialty sectors. – Bulk industrial: Buy or build state-of-the-art product in major supply chain markets. – Infill industrial: Maximize access to consumers; minimize exposure to competitive stock. – Apartment: Buy higher-yield assets with room to run for net operating income (NOI) growth. – Retail: Seek service-oriented centers with tenant experiences not easily duplicated online. – Office: Buy in high-growth innovation hubs with a compelling, hospitality-based work environment. – Specialty: Seek to reduce portfolio volatility and avoid oversupplied locations. Image: E-commerce growth remains a dynamic driver of robust demand for warehouse and logistics space. 1 Invesco Real Estate House View H1 2019 North America Market Outlook Macro environment Growth slowing, fundamentals easing, risk selectivity, costs up Macro economy: Growth is healthy, but is slowing – Job openings exceed the pace of hiring; tight labor conditions limit growth. – Tapering yield curve, drop in home sales, and tariff risk imply slowdown is coming. – Yet, slow money supply growth supports low inflation expectations. Fundamentals: Easing, but vary across sector and segments – Industrial: Rising supply is still outstripped by robust demand. – Retail: Weak store-based sales have led to anemic revenue growth. – Apartment: Rent growth is challenged in supply-heavy locations. – Office: Differentiated assets in innovation hubs are capturing outsized demand. Capital markets: Risk-taking is becoming more selective – Liquidity has contracted, particularly for assets valued above $150 million. – Class B and C assets have experienced significant yield compression. – Fewer foreign buyers and total bidders; outliers often set prices. – Debt capital is plentiful. Costs: Still rising, still challenging – Property taxes rising abruptly and sharply; development costs are up. – Amenity and personnel costs continue to rise among new apartments. – High finish-out costs are needed to secure new office and retail tenants. 2 Invesco Real Estate House View H1 2019 North America Market Outlook Investment execution response Can’t control the cycle, but can control our choices in the cycle Strengthen investment resiliency – Favor durable income and higher yield to weather expected growth slowdown. – Reduce leverage, simplify debt covenants and partnership structures. – Extend debt maturities while conditions favor borrowers. Sector allocation will increase in importance – Sector performance differences can widen at economic turning points. – Nothing is immune, but prefer apartment and industrial over office and retail. – Capital demand for apartments is deeper and more stable than for commercial. – Structural trends lend resilience to industrial, but weakness to retail. But selection within sectors matters at least as much – Technology and demographic trends are leading select assets to outperform. – Industrial: Don’t compromise on infill location or bulk property attributes. – Retail: Measure property viability by factors leading to strong store sales. – Apartment: Seek higher yield, lower supply exposure and rents below top-of-market. – Office: Don’t settle for non-premium locations and inefficient space. Active management will be a differentiator – Get ahead of lease expirations; assert efforts to drive NOI growth. – Deal with challenging tenant credit issues while demand remains positive. – Be selective on cap-ex. 3 Invesco Real Estate House View H1 2019 North America Market Outlook Investment performance tradeoffs: Yield and revenue growth With slower growth expected, seek higher yield and durable income Return tradeoffs between yields and revenue growth Macro environment: – Fundamentals remain in good shape across Yield most sectors and markets. Low High – But revenue growth is expected to moderate as the cycle lengthens and matures. High Investment execution response: Early cycle strategy as growth High probability of over- – Seek relatively higher-yield opportunities accelerates performance because of lower revenue growth expectations. Requires great care in Ideal, but less common – But do not compromise on property income underwriting presently durability. – Commit to asset quality and credit quality. – Commit to market and location selection with a clear long-term demand growth High probability of under- Late-cycle strategy as growth premise. performance decelerates – Consider lower-yield opportunities in cases that provide a clear path to achieving strong More assets come into this Careful asset selection needed income growth at the property level. Revenue growth Revenue category with slow growth, to ensure durable income strong capital demand conditions. Low “High” and “Low” refers to whether revenue growth or yield for an asset is high or low compared to other assets for a given point in time. It does not refer to whether something is high or low compared to historical values. 4 Invesco Real Estate House View H1 2019 North America Market Outlook Macro themes Revenue growth is healthy, yet moderating. Tight labor availability is constraining the pace of hiring, which is moderating the pace of tenant demand. Capital market risk-taking is becoming more selective. Liquidity is becoming thin for larger transactions and equity transactions are seeing fewer bidders, whereas debt is plentiful. Easing of Treasury yields potentially means less cap rate compression. The current posture of the Federal Reserve to place a hold on moving interest rates higher means real estate cap rates could experience less expansion should the economy move into recession. NOI growth of late is greatest for industrial, followed by apartment. NOI growth within sectors is differentiated by competitive levels of new supply for apartments, location and asset quality for office, and type of center and location quality for retail. Yield/cap rate spreads to Treasuries Easing of Treasury yields potentially means less cap rate expansion Yield/cap rate spreads to 10-year Treasury In March, the Federal Reserve signaled they may NPI current value cap rate (LHS) LTA spread +/-1 std. deviation (RHS) be finished with raising short-term interest rates 10-year Treasury (LHS) • Spread (RHS) for 2019. 10 450 The Fed also suggested a possibility of reducing short-term rates in 2020. 9 400 Cap rate spread to 10-year Treasury (basis points) (basis Treasury 10-year to spread rate Cap The 10-year Treasury yield fell in response to this 8 news, reflecting a weaker economic outlook. 350 7 If prevailing 10-year rates hold through the 300 remainder of this cycle, real estate yields/cap 6 rates could experience less expansion should the 250 economy move into recession. 5 200 This means that a potential reduction in real 4 estate prices could be less severe than it otherwise would have been if Treasury yields had 150 3 continued to increase. 100 2 50 10-year Treasury/NPI current value cap rate (%) rate cap value current Treasury/NPI 10-year 1 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *2019 Notes: Historical average spreads reflect period from Q1 1995 to Q4 2018. Data reflects current value weighted market yields/cap rates and spreads to 10-year US Treasury bonds. *Data for Q1 2019 reflects
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