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Quarterly Bulletin September 2010 BANK OF NAMIBIA QUARTERLY BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2010 QUARTERLY BANK OF NAMIBIA QUARTERLY BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2010 Editorial Committee: Mr. A. Iyambo (Chief Editor) Ms. E. Haiyambo Ms. F. Nakusera Ms. E. Kamundu (Secretary) © Bank of Namibia All rights reserved. No part of this pub- lication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, plagiarizing, recording and storing without the writ- ten permission of the copyright holder except in accordance with the copyright legislation in force in the Republic of Na- mibia. The contents of this publication are intended for general information only and are not intended to serve as fi nan- cial or other advice. While every precau- tion is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the Bank of Namibia shall not be liable to any person for inaccurate information or opinions contained in this publication. Published by the Research Department of the Bank of Namibia. Enquiries related to this publication should be directed to: The Director: Research Department P.O. Box 2882 WINDHOEK NAMIBIA Tel: +264 61 283 5111 Fax: +264 61 283 5231 e-mail: [email protected] http://www.bon.com.na ISBN: 978 99916-61-60-5 2 BANK OF NAMIBIA QUARTERLY BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2010 CORPORATE CHARTER VISION Our vision is to be the center of excellence - a professional and credible institution - working in the public interest, and supporting the achievement of the national economic development goals. MISSION In support of economic growth and development our mandate is to promote price stability, effi cient payment, systems, effective banking supervision, reserves management and economic research in order to proactively offer relevant fi nancial and fi scal advice to all our stakeholders. VALUES We value high performance impact in the context of teamwork. We uphold open communication, diversity and integrity. We care for each other’s well-being and value excellence. 3 BANK OF NAMIBIA QUARTERLY BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2010 CONTENTS SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS 8 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 10 REAL DOMESTIC ECONOMIC AND PRICE DEVELOPMENTS 21 Sectoral Developments 21 Price developments 38 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 43 Monetary Aggregates 43 Money and Capital Market Developments 49 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS 54 Central Government Debt 54 Domestic Debt 55 External Debt 56 Central Government Loan guarantees 57 Box Article 1: A summary of the main fi ndings of the Global Competitiveness Report for 2009-10 on Namibia 60 FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS 63 Current Account 63 Capital and Financial Account 71 Exchange rates 74 Box Article 2: IMF Article IV Mission: May 2010 76 International Investment Position 78 External Debt 79 BOP REVISION POLICY 81 SPEECHES AND PRESS STATEMENTS 82 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 84 Methods and Concepts 84 Statistical Tables 87 BANK OF NAMIBIA PUBLICATIONS 130 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 132 4 BANK OF NAMIBIA QUARTERLY BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2010 QUARTERLY KEY EVENTS1 Month Day Event 08 The local fuel industry has suffered its second major blow with Shell’s decision to pull out of Namibia, barely a month after BP announced its withdrawal from the country. 16 Rio Tinto said that strong demand from China helped iron ore production to rise 39.0 percent in the fi rst three months of 2010. 19 Diamond mining, hailed as one of the main vehicles to drive Namibia out of the recession this year, produced 2.9 percent more carats in the fi rst quarter of 2010 compared to the last quarter of 2009. 26 NamPost’s savings book has increased from N$420 million in 2004 to over N$1.4 billion at present, the CEO of Namibia Post, Festus Hangala, said. 30 From the fi gures released by the World Nuclear Association (WNA), Namibia retained its spot as the fourth biggest uranium producer in the world for the second year running, contributing to 9.0 percent of global output last year. May 2010 03 The zero-rating on brown and white sugar and fresh milk fi nally became effective on 1 May 2010. 11 The Indian metal and mining giant Vedanta Resources paid US$698 million, nearly N$5 billion, for the Skorpion mine as part of a deal to buy Anglo American’s zinc assets and become the biggest zinc producer globally. 12 Namibia’s revenue from the Souhern African Customs Union (SACU) pool is expected to drop by 52.7 percent in the next fi nancial year, Deputy Minister of Finance, Mr. Calle Schleittwein said in Parliament. 14 The Electricity Control Board (ECB) announced its decision to allow NamPower to hike its tariffs by 18.0 percent. 17 Namibian meat farmers face huge losses as a result of a ban on all exports following an outbreak of Rift Valley fever in the Hardap and Karas regions. 26 South African-based Massmart, through its subsidiary Massbuild, has bought the majority shareholding in Pupkewitz Megabuild and its subsidiary, Builders Warehouse. Although Massbuild will have the majority of directors on the new board, local business veteran Harold Pupkewitz will remain the chairman. Jun 2010 22 Namdeb’s annual production loss due to diamond theft has signifi cantly dropped over the past ten years from 10.0 percent to 1.0 percent, according to the company’s risk manager, Peter Shout. 22 Namibia’s diamond industry is starting to sparkle again with production for the fi rst fi ve months of 2010 totalling 580 000 carats, more than half of last year’s entire pickings. 29 Namibia Diaries announced that the price of milk and other diary products will go up by an average of 5.3 percent on 1 July 2010. Source: The Namibian, New Era and Republikein 1 The quarterly key events are based on media reports and are selected based on their economic relevance. 5 BANK OF NAMIBIA QUARTERLY BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2010 NAMIBIA ECONOMIC INDICATORS Yearly economic indicators 2006 2007 2008 2009 *2010 Population (million) 1.99 2.03 2.07 2.10 Gini coeffi cient 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 GDP current prices (N$ million) 54 028 62 080 74 016 78 169 89 099 GDP constant 2004 prices (N$ million) 46 853 49 371 51 490 51 076 52 662 % change in annual growth 7.1 5.4 4.3 -0.8 4.2 Namibia Dollar per US Dollar (period average)*** 6 767 7 054 8 252 8 4371 Annual infl ation rate*** 5.1 6.7 10.3 8.8 Government budget balance as % of GDP** 4.1 5.1 2.0 -1.6 -7.1 2009 2010 Quarterly economic indicators Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Real sector indicators Vehicle sales (number) 2,178 2648 2660 2658 2704 Infl ation rate (quarterly average) 9.6 7.4 6.9 6.1 4.7 Non-performing loans (N$ 000) 996 465 989 390 966 296 882 480 847 592 Monetary and fi nancial sector indicators NFA (quarterly growth rate) -6.9 8.5 4.6 -2.0 -14.8 Domestic credit (quarterly growth rate) 2.2 2.7 6.9 4.9 2.1 Private sector credit (quarterly growth rate) 0.2 3.6 3.6 -0.2 3.3 Individual credit (quarterly growth rate) 0.8 1.6 2.3 1.2 2.3 Business borrowing (quarterly growth rate) -1.0 7.3 5.9 -2.7 5.3 Repo rate 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Prime lending rate 11.56 11.38 11.25 11.25 11.25 Average lending rate 10.21 10.55 10.75 10.06 9.78 Average deposit rate 5.78 5.27 5.11 5.31 5.06 Average 91 T-Bill rate 7.63 7.27 7.42 7.24 6.92 Average 365 T-Bill rate 7.73 7.74 8.07 7.78 7.34 Fiscal sector indicators Total Government debt (N$ million) 13 227.1 13 106.9 13 514.5 11 922.5 11 863.0 Domestic borrowing (N$ million) 9 906.7 10 056.7 10 177.1 8 876.0 8 951.2 External borrowing (N$ million) 3 320.4 3 050.2 3 337.40 3 046.5 2 911.8 Total debt as % of GDP 16.5 16.4 16.9 14.9 13.4 Total Government guarantees (N$ million) 2 843.8 2 603.0 2 615.1 2 634.9 2 654.4 Total Government guarantees as % of GDP 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.0 External sector indicators Merchandise trade balance (N$ million) -2 840 -2 243 -1 881 -1 349 -958 Current account balance (N$ million) -46 1 254 442 358 140 Capital and fi nancial account (N$ million) -293 575 -1 508 -732 -402 Overall balance (N$ million) -361 1 327 -855 -1 147 -486 International reserves (N$ million) 361 -1 327 855 1 147 486 Imports cover (weeks) 22.98 22.18 21.90 22.03 22.89 **This is fi nancial year data. ***Data not available or period not complete. *Figures for 2010 are forecasted annual indicators except for annual infl ation and exchange rate which are actual. 6 BANK OF NAMIBIA QUARTERLY BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2010 International Economic Indicators: Selected Economies 2008 2009 2010 Variable: Country Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Quarterly average for selected economies USA 4.4 5.3 1.6 -0.1 -1.1 -1.6 1.4 2.3 1.8 UK 3.4 4.8 3.9 3.0 2.1 1.5 2.1 3.3 3.4 Euro Area 3.7 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 0.4 1.1 1.5 Japan 1.4 2.2 1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.0 -1.2 -0.9 ation rates fl Brazil 5.6 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.2 4.4 4.2 4.9 5.1 Russia 14.8 14.9 13.8 13.4 12.5 11.4 9.2 7.2 5.9 ation/de fl India 7.8 9.0 9.8 9.4 8.9 11.8 13.3 10.4 13.6 In China 7.8 5.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.5 -1.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 South Africa 11.7 13.4 11.1 8.4 7.8 6.4 6.0 5.7 4.5 Quarterly average for selected economies (end of period) USA 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 UK 5.0 5.0 2.0 3.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Euro Area 4.0 4.2 3.3 1.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Japan 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Brazil 11.8 13.0 13.8 12.6 10.3 8.9 8.8 8.8 9.5 Russia 10.5 11.0 11.9 13.0 12.2 10.9 9.5 8.6 8.0 India 6.0 6.0 5.8 3.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.7 Monetary Policy Rates China 7.5 7.4 6.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 South Africa 11.5 12.0 11.9 10.8 8.5 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.5 Annualised Quarterly average for selected economies USA 1.2 -0.3 -2.8 -3.8 -4.1 -2.7 0.2 2.4 3.0 UK 1.0 -0.4 -2.7 -5.5 -5.9 -5.3 -2.9 -0.2 1.7 Euro Area 1.4 0.3 -2.0 -5.2 -4.9 -4.1 -2.1 0.6 1.7 Japan -0.4 -1.4 -4.1 -8.9 -5.7 -5.2 -1.0 4.7 2.0 Brazil 6.5 7.1 0.8 -2.1 -1.6 -1.2 4.3 8.9 8.8 Real GDP Russia 7.7 6.6 0.0 -9.4 -10.8 -7.7 -3.8 2.9 5.2 India 7.8 7.5 6.1 5.8 6.0 8.6 6.5 8.6 8.8 China 10.1 9.0 6.8 6.2 7.9 9.1 10.7 11.9 10.3 South Africa 5.1 3.8 1.9 -0.7 -2.7 -2.2 -1.4 1.6 3.0 Quarterly average for selected economies USA 5.4 6.1 6.9 8.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 9.7 9.7 UK 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.8 7.5 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.8 Euro Area 7.4 7.6 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.0 10.0 Russia 5.7 5.9 7.1 9.1 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.8 7.4 Unemployment Japan 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.5 5.2 5.5 5.1 4.9 5.2 Sources: Trading economics for infl ation, monetary policy and unemployment rates.
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