Indonesia’s Puzzling Crisis July 16, 2001 Michael Ross Assistant Professor Department of Political Science University of California, Los Angeles
[email protected] Working draft; comments welcome. Please do not cite or quote without permission. Indonesia’s Puzzling Crisis Abstract Of all the states hit by the 1997-98 Asian economic crisis, Indonesia has suffered the most, and been the hardest case for economists to explain. This paper suggests that Indonesia ’s collapse was not unique, but part of a small class of economic catastrophes caused by the interaction of two factors: personalistic authoritarian rule and financial openness. It argues that the combination of these two factors tends to produce economic collapse when investors believe the regime will soon end. To test the argument it develops an index of 45 personalistic regimes that ended between 1974 and 1999, ranks them according to an original index of financial openness, and examines their growth records during their final four years in office. It finds that those regimes that combined personalistic features with financial openness tended to suffer from unusually sharp economic reversals in their final two years. To illustrate the argument it uses the case of Indonesia, showing that investor panic was closely linked to rumors that Suharto was ill or would step down. By themselves, personalistic rule and financial openness are each compatible with high growth rates. When combined, however, they create the preconditions for a calamitous economic reversal. 2 Introduction Most studies of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis have had trouble explaining the case of Indonesia. On the eve of the crisis, Indonesia was in a strong economic position: it was completing its third decade of high growth with low inflation and balanced budgets; its currency did not appear to be overvalued; it had a smaller current account deficit, and less short-term debt, than either Thailand or South Korea; and the Suharto government had an excellent record of economic governance, particularly during times of crisis.