Senate Upset Likely Mourdock Moves Into 48-38% Lead in Howey/Depauw Poll; Lugar’S Iconic Career in Jeopardy by BRIAN A
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V17, N33 Friday, May 4, 2012 Howey/DePauw: Senate upset likely Mourdock moves into 48-38% lead in Howey/DePauw Poll; Lugar’s iconic career in jeopardy By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - Rich- ard G. Lugar's iconic career of elected public service appears to be in great jeopardy. A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battle- ground Poll conducted Monday and Tuesday of this week shows that Lugar is trailing Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock 48-38% Lugar” until the March 26-28 Howey/DePauw in the Republican Senate primary. survey had Lugar leading Mourdock 42-35%, That head-to-head figure includes at which time HPI moved the Senate race into so-called "leaners," who could conceivably “Tossup.” change their minds in the final 72 hours of The survey, conducted by Republican the campaign. Without the leans, Mourdock pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether still leads 43-35%. Based on this survey data, Research and Democratic pollster Fred Yang Howey Politics Indiana is moving the Senate of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, is based race into a “Likely Mourdock” category. on 700 likely voters with a +/- margin of error We may be witnessing a Hoosier ver- at 3.7%. The sample was made up of 76% sion of the “last hurrah.” It’s been a “Leans Continued on page 3 Republican contradictions By CHRISTINE MATTHEWS WASHINGTON - Republican primary voters in Indiana say they want a U.S. Senator “to focus first on try- ing to solve many of our country’s ‘‘There are very severe deficiencies in problems, even if that means work- ing with elected officials across the my opponent’s background for the aisle to do it,” (60%) versus a U.S. office, starting with the lack of any Senator “to focus first on stand- qualifications that are particularly ing up for conservative principles, even if that means not working with visible, any preparation for it, any elected officials across the aisle to understanding of how the legislative solve problems” (30%). Yet, on the cusp of the process works.” May 8th election, they appear - U.S. Dick Lugar, talking about Richard Mourdock HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Friday, May 4, 2012 poised to elect someone who believes Senator Lugar has remained very close “We don’t need bipartisanship as to the level of support he got in March much as we need the application of (38%) when the two candidates were principle.” (Richard Mourdock, Evans- tied. All the voters we interviewed ville Courier & Press, April, 2012). for this survey have a past history of www.HoweyPolitics.com Challenger Richard Mourdock leads voting in a Republican primary, but incumbent Senator Richard Lugar by roughly one-fourth identify initially as a 43%-35% margin which expands independent. Among these self-iden- Howey Politics to 48% to 38% when initial undecid- tifying independent voters, Senator Indiana eds leaning toward a candidate are Lugar has a narrow edge (41%-38%). is a non-partisan newsletter included. He needs a strong showing among based in Indianapolis. It was So, what to make of this ap- independent-leaning primary voters founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. parent contradiction? to compensate for Mr. Mourdock’s Actually, Mourdock sup- lead among Republicans. However, porters are about evenly split on this because the race appears to hinge as Brian A. Howey, Publisher question: 48% want a problem solver much, if not more, on longevity as ide- Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington vs. 46% want conservative principles ology, adding independents may less Jack E. Howey, editor first. Lugar supporters, however, dramatically accrue to Senator Lugar’s Beverly K. Phillips, associate overwhelmingly want someone to benefit. [1] solve problems first (78%) vs. putting editor principles ahead of bipartisan problem solving (17%). Subscriptions However, while voters may dif- [1] Of course, one could argue that this primary will attract some voters $350 annually HPI Weekly fer on what brand of conservative they want to send to Washington, and even with no history of voting in a Repub- $550 annually HPI Weekly and express a preference for bipartisan lican primary. In addition to the 700 HPI Daily Wire. problem solving, the race really boils interviews we conducted, we also 'Call 317.627.6746 down to this: Close to three-fourths of dialed a separate list of voters with no voters supporting Richard Mourdock primary vote history but who voted in say it’s because of Lugar’s longevity or the 2008 and 2010 general elections. Contact HPI age or the fact that he lives in Virginia. We did not dial known Democratic Howey Politics Indiana These voters think Indiana’s senior primary voters. We stopped calling 6255 Evanston Ave. senator has served too long. The after the first night, after obtaining 50 Indianapolis, IN 46220 comments relating to Lugar being too interviews because: 1.) the calls are expensive due to the lower number www.howeypolitics.com liberal, or Obama’s favorite Republi- can, or voting for his Supreme Court that qualify as likely GOP primary [email protected] Justices account for just about 15% of voters and 2.) they were breaking for 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 the reasons given for supporting Mr. Mr. Mourdock in a similar fashion to 'Washington: 703.248.0909 Mourdock. In fact, while the Senator’s our 700 sample of past GOP primary 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 support for the DREAM Act is one of voters. Those 50 additional interviews the main arguments Tea Party groups are not included in our results. Our make against Senator Lugar, the ma- thought was to obtain these interviews © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. jority of GOP primary voters say they in case we needed to model what an All rights reserved. Photocopy- support it (54%), while only about expanded electorate might look like ing, Internet forwarding, fax- one-third oppose it. And Lugar’s sup- in the event of a very close contest. ing or reproducing in any form, port of the DREAM Act did not register While we only did 50 interviews, if the voters were breaking strongly for whole or part, is a violation of as a reason, specifically, for supporting Mourdock. Senator Lugar and the race were virtu- federal law without permission What’s happened since our ally tied, an argument could be made from the publisher. v last survey in late March is that Mr. that this could be a factor, but only Mourdock is now capturing a majority with a race that is close enough that of the vote among those who identify it could be decided by non-traditional as Republicans (51% - 36%) whereas voters. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Friday, May 4, 2012 Unlike a general electorate, the majority of Repub- favorable – 17% unfavorable for Mourdock), but have lican primary voters tend to be male and they are break- become more unfavorable toward both over the past few ing toward the challenger by a 52%-36% margin. Among weeks – mostly likely as a result of all the negative televi- women, the race is closer with 44% for Mourdock and 39% sion ads. for Lugar. Nearly six in ten of the remaining undecided vot- About one third of voters say their opinion of ers are women. Senator Lugar has become less favorable over the past A plurality (44%) of primary voters identifies them- week or so, compared with about a quarter trending nega- selves as “very conservative” and, not surprisingly, they tive for Mr. Mourdock. overwhelmingly favor Mr. Mourdock (63%-26%). So the While Lugar has a slight edge over Mourdock on balance of the electorate is somewhat conservative (33%) general electability, enough voters think both would fare or moderate (19%) and, to win, Mr. Lugar would have to equally well against Democrat Joe Donnelly that this argu- dominate among these voters. The problem for Senator ment doesn’t help much. And Mourdock has a similar edge Lugar, is that Mr. Mourdock is also winning the less conser- on what may be a more important voting consideration, vative voters (43%-41%), so that the senator carries only which is, “shares my values.” moderate voters (60%-26%). We conducted our polling on Monday (April 30) and Generally, the rule of thumb is that undecided Tuesday (May 1), ending a full week ahead of the May 8 voters break two or three to one for the challenger. That primary. Of course, the last week before a primary cam- may be true here, but the demographics of the undecideds paign can be very fluid; things can change. But, without give Lugar a shot. Nearly six in ten are women with whom any new data to conclude otherwise, it certainly looks as if he fares better. They are less conservative and more inde- the momentum has shifted toward Richard Mourdock. v pendent leaning than voters overall. The endorsements of Governor Mitch Daniels and the Indiana Right to Life carry Matthews is president and CEO of Bellwether Re- the most weight with them, as with voters overall. They search, is a graduate of Indiana University and a are much less likely to have an opinion of either candidate native of Kokomo. (33% favorable – 24% unfavorable for Lugar and 21% for the Indiana Democratic Party, and I found a surprising Howey/DePauw, from page 1 result in one of our questions: Richard Lugar had a 28% reelect to another term score, and fully 56% wanted to Republicans, 14% independent, 8% independent/lean make a change and elect someone else, and this result was Republican, 1% lean Democrat and 1% independent/lean among Republican voters.