The Shah, the Islamic Revolution and the United States Darioush Bayandor the Shah, the Islamic Revolution and the United States Darioush Bayandor Nyon, Switzerland

The Shah, the Islamic Revolution and the United States Darioush Bayandor The Shah, the Islamic Revolution and the United States Darioush Bayandor Nyon, Switzerland

ISBN 978-3-319-96118-7 ISBN 978-3-319-96119-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96119-4

Library of Congress Control Number: 2018952482

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This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland To Iranian youth; the bright, vibrant and connected generation born after the Revolution. Author’s Preface

This book offers a retrospective view of an event of rare historical impor- tance and influence. Beyond having durably transformed Iranian society, the Islamic Revolution of 1979 changed the political landscape of the Middle East with far-flung reverberations that continue to resonate strongly in world politics. The passage of four decades provides enough perspective for a reexami- nation of all the factors, in their complex diversity, which went into the making of that seminal event. The narrative is set against the backdrop of the socio-economic transformations attempted by a modernizing autocracy in the face of a cultural backlash. It portrays the pre-revolution setting in Iran of the 1970s and describes how, through a combination of systemic flaws, cultural dichotomy and far-flung external developments—the post-Vietnam zeitgeist and perceptions surrounding the advent of the Carter administration in the USA—the country was inflamed and an ailing ruler lost control. Monarchy had haltingly spanned Iran’s millennial history yet its fall, in February 1979, would have been an unremarkable feature of the post-war Middle East had it not been for two inter-related characteristics. Firstly, like the French and the Russian Revolutions before it, the Islamic Revolution came with an ideology and doctrine. Its drift and glow over- rode national boundaries and engulfed the region in incessant conflicts and conflagration. Secondly, contrary to common perceptions, the movement led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was not a struggle against one single regime or an incumbent dynasty even if his enmity toward the two Pahlavi monarchs was deeply entrenched. The doctrine he upheld aimed

vii viii AUTHOR’S PREFACE at ending profane rule over the Islamic nation and to restore the dynasty of the Prophet’s progeny, who had briefly ruled in early years of Islam and then was decisively suppressed in the battle of Karbala in 679 CE. The book is also concerned with external factors even if the make-up of the Revolution was uniquely indigenous. The history of that seminal event cannot be fully grasped divorced from the influences that crept in from the major power poles abroad or, alternatively, from deliberate manipulations by a faction in the Carter administration. Several chapters of the narrative are devoted to the study of this latter aspect, sourced by recent finds in the hitherto untapped American archive files. It is my hope that this will help to answer a longstanding question discussed among Iran observers, given the lingering conspiracy theories and still rampant speculations about foreign involvement. Finally, the issue of the inevitability of the Revolution is a topic that the book aims to address. A Harvard historian of revolutions, Clarence Crane Briton, once wrote—and Zbigniew Brzezinski quoted him in his memoirs: “Revolutions were inevitable only after they had happened.”1 Ill-judged policy decisions and missteps along the road, which sparked the revolt, are inherently avoidable, as this study demonstrates. Most emanated from systemic flaws, yet the more consequential ones came from tempestuous calls by the man at the helm, Mohammad-Reza Shah Pahlavi. Ill health may have compounded bad judgment and indecision. Yet the Shah was also the leader who refused to plunge the nation into civil war in order to save his throne. Some chapters in this volume shed light on this facet of the conundrum. One final point needs to be underscored. The topic stirs, even today, a great deal of passion among Iranians of different political persuasions. However, this book purports to be apolitical and non-judgmental. In describ- ing protagonists on either side of the divide I have remained within the strict confines of hard evidence and archives; the task of historian is to produce data and lay out facts but avoid conclusions, which so often hinge on subjec- tivity. No one is condemned or vindicated in the pages that follow. I am grateful to Palgrave for the opportunity that the publication of this book has afforded me to share what I consider a factual account and expla- nation of that seminal event. I have been fortunate to have worked with leading professionals at the history department of Palgrave New York as well as its peripheral divisions. My thanks go especially to Megan Laddusaw and Christine Pardue. In my research for this volume, I was privileged to be granted access by the Graduate Institute of International and Development AUTHOR’S PREFACE ix

Studies, Geneva, to their vast digital network of academic material as well as the magnificent library. A freelance editor, Susan Kaufman, helped me with the Chicago formatting of my manuscript. My old friend and academic companion, Bijan Dolatabadi, read several chapters of the manuscript and offered his insightful observations. So did another old friend, Iraj Amini, himself author of several valuable publications. Foremost, I wish to record my gratitude to Ambassador John Limbert and Professor Michael Axworthy, both renowned Iran experts, for taking time to read and comment on this volume.

Nyon, Switzerland Darioush Bayandor April 2018

Note 1. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle: Memoirs of National Security Advisor (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1983), p. 355 [History Professor Crane Brinton was the author of classic book Anatomy of Revolution (W.W. Norton, New York, 1938)]. Contents

Part I The Pre-revolution Setting 1

1 A Retrospective 3 1 Social Forces and Political Dynamics in Modern Iran 3 2 Events and Protagonists in Post-war Iran 5 3 Socio-cultural Mutations in the 1960s 14

2 Nezam Shahanshahi: The Shah’s Imperial Order 27 1 An Autocracy in Disguise 27 2 The Two Faces of a Monarch 29 3 The Inner Circle 31 4 Oil Diplomacy (1963–1973) 34 5 An Economic Powerhouse 40 6 The Shah’s Great Army 47 7 A Regional Superpower 55 8 Iraq, the Kurds and the Settlement of the Shatt al-Arab Dispute 63 9 Nuclear Ambitions and Ambiguities 69

xi xii Contents

Part II The Onset of Revolution 89

3 Downslide 91 1 A Man in a Hurry 91 2 The Cycle of Boom and Bust 94 3 The Court’s Vanity Fair 98

4 The Opposition 109 1 Ayatollah Khomeini: The Years of Exile 109 2 Rebellious Youth 117

5 Changing Tack (1976–1977) 129 1 Images in the Curved Mirror 129 2 Liberalization and the Myth of Carter Ambiguity 133 3 Mutual Policy Readjustments 137

Part III The Revolution 143

6 1977: The Year of all Dangers 145 1 Tehran on the Eve of the Revolution 145 2 Sounding out Democracy 147 3 The Opposition Curve: From Civil Society to Radical Islam 150 4 The Shah’s Visit to the Carter White House (November 1977) 155

7 The Spark (Spring 1978) 161 1 Iran: Island of Stability 161 2 The Shah’s “Original Sin”: The “Rashidi–Motalq” Affair 163 3 Backlash in Tabriz 167 4 A Spring Not Like Others 169

8 Actors, Strategies and Structures 177 1 Mehdi Bazargan and His Game Plan 177 2 Kazem Shariatmadari: the Two Faces of a Quiescent Divine 180 3 The Shah Facing the Crisis 182 4 The Mosque Network 186 Contents xiii

9 The Abadan File 195 1 The Event 195 2 The Cabal 199 3 The Enigma of an Appointment 202

10 Appeasement and Recoil 207 1 The Government of National Reconciliation (27 August–5 November 1978) 207 2 The Great September Confluence 210 3 Black Friday 210

11 October Countdown 225 1 The Ayatollah in Paris 225 2 Giscard d’Estaing’s Dilemma 230 3 Political Deadlock 233 4 Season of Strikes (Fall 1978) 238 5 Public Opinion Swing 242

12 November Countdown 251 1 Tehran: Tales of a Wasteland 251 2 Tug of War in Washington 253 3 The Soft Fist Option 259 4 The Voice of the Revolution Heard 261 5 The Perfect Scapegoat 263

13 The Military Spell: Prime Minister Gholam-Reza Azhari 271 1 Induction and Gains 271 2 Entanglement and Retreat 274 3 The Muharram Plebiscite 277 4 The Politics of Despair 282

14 Carter’s Quandary 293 1 The Carter Administration: A House Divided 293 2 Consultations Among Allies 300 3 Washington Dumps the Shah 303 4 The Guadeloupe Summit 310 xiv Contents

15 The USSR and the Iranian Revolution 317 1 Expedience Vs. Ideology 317 2 The Leipzig Connection 319

16 The Dawn of a New Era 325 1 Tehran, New Year, 1979 325 2 Bakhtiar, the Bird of Storm 327 3 General Huyser’s Mission to Tehran 332 4 Shah Raft 340

17 The United States’ Attempt at Dialogue with Ayatollah Khomeini 347 1 The Eliot Mission 347 2 Zimmerman-Yazdi Channel 349

18 Swansongs 357 1 The Post-Shah Political Line-Ups 357 2 The Rift in the Armed Forces 364

19 The Collapse 373 1 Khomeini’s Return from Exile 373 2 Armageddon 383 3 Postscript 397

Sources of Study 407

Index 421 Abbreviations

CENTO Central Treaty Organization CREST CIA Records Search Tool CWIHP Cold War International History Project Bulletin DOS Department of State DSFDS Department of State Archive Files seized in 1979–80 from the so-called Den of Spies DSWL Department of State Archive Files Declassified in March 2014, Released by WikiLeaks FCO Foreign and Commonwealth Office FISOHI Foundation of Iranian Studies Oral History Interview FK Cherik’hay’e Fadaei’e Khalq (Marxist Urban Guerrilla Movement) FMI Freedom Movement of Iran FRUS Foreign Relations of the United States, Department of State, History Department (1861–1979) HIOHP Harvard Iran Oral History Project MAAG [United States] Military Assistance and Advisory Group MKO Mojaheddin Khalq Organization (urban guerilla movement) NF National Front Movement of Iran NIOC National Iranian Oil Comoany SITREP Situation Report USG United States Government

xv List of Figures

Fig. 2.1 An official portrait of the royal family, 1976. (Source: UtCon Collection/Alamy Stock Photo) 28 Fig. 2.2 Prime Minister Amir-Abbas Hoveyda, in an open-air ceremony accompanying the royal couple, c. 1974. (Source: UtCon Collection/Alamy Stock Photo) 32 Fig. 2.3 The Shah at work in his office at Saheb-Qaranieh (Niavaran) Palace, at the apex of his power in 1974. (Source: INTERFOTO/Alamy Stock Photo) 41 Fig. 2.4 Mohammad-Reza Shah in Air Force uniform, c. 1972. (Source: Historic Collection/Alamy Stock Photo) 49 Fig. 4.1 Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, circa 1979. (Source: Peter Probst/Alamy Stock Photo) 110 Fig. 6.1 President and Rosalynn Carter during the Shah and Queen Farah’s visit to the White House, November 15, 1978. (Source: Keystone pictures USA/Alamy Stock Photo) 156 Fig. 8.1 Mehdi Bazargan, circa 1979. (Source: Keystone Pictures USA/ Alamy Stock Photo) 178 Fig. 11.1 Leading prayers at the garden of the compound in Neauphle- le-Château, October 1978. (Source: Keystone pictures USA/ Alamy Stock Photo) 229 Fig. 12.1 Ambassador William H. Sullivan. (©William E. Sauro/The New York Times/Redux) 256 Fig. 14.1 President Jimmy Carter flanked by the Secretary of State, Cyrus Vance (first from the left), and the National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski (first from the right). (Source: ZUMA Press, Inc./Alamy Stock Photo) 294

xvii xviii List of Figures

Fig. 16.1 Prime Minister Shapour Bakhtiar, January 1979. (Source: Keystone Pictures USA/Alamy Stock Photo) 328 Fig. 19.1 Ayatollah Khomeini naming Mehdi Bazargan as the prime minister of the provisional revolutionary government, February 5, 1979. (Source: Historic Collection/Alamy Stock Photo) 380