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The Shah, the Islamic Revolution and the United States Darioush Bayandor the Shah, the Islamic Revolution and the United States Darioush Bayandor Nyon, Switzerland The Shah, the Islamic Revolution and the United States Darioush Bayandor The Shah, the Islamic Revolution and the United States Darioush Bayandor Nyon, Switzerland ISBN 978-3-319-96118-7 ISBN 978-3-319-96119-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96119-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018952482 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover credit: soberve / DigitalVision Vectors / Getty Images Cover design by Tjaša Krivec This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland To Iranian youth; the bright, vibrant and connected generation born after the Revolution. AUTHOR’S PREFACE This book offers a retrospective view of an event of rare historical impor- tance and influence. Beyond having durably transformed Iranian society, the Islamic Revolution of 1979 changed the political landscape of the Middle East with far-flung reverberations that continue to resonate strongly in world politics. The passage of four decades provides enough perspective for a reexami- nation of all the factors, in their complex diversity, which went into the making of that seminal event. The narrative is set against the backdrop of the socio-economic transformations attempted by a modernizing autoc- racy in the face of a cultural backlash. It portrays the pre-revolution setting in Iran of the 1970s and describes how, through a combination of sys- temic flaws, cultural dichotomy and far-flung external developments—the post-Vietnam zeitgeist and perceptions surrounding the advent of the Carter administration in the USA—the country was inflamed and an ailing ruler lost control. Monarchy had haltingly spanned Iran’s millennial history yet its fall, in February 1979, would have been an unremarkable feature of the post-war Middle East had it not been for two inter-related characteristics. Firstly, like the French and the Russian Revolutions before it, the Islamic Revolution came with an ideology and doctrine. Its drift and glow over- rode national boundaries and engulfed the region in incessant conflicts and conflagration. Secondly, contrary to common perceptions, the move- ment led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was not a struggle against one single regime or an incumbent dynasty even if his enmity toward the two Pahlavi monarchs was deeply entrenched. The doctrine he upheld aimed vii viii AUTHOR’S PREFACE at ending profane rule over the Islamic nation and to restore the dynasty of the Prophet’s progeny, who had briefly ruled in early years of Islam and then was decisively suppressed in the battle of Karbala in 679 CE. The book is also concerned with external factors even if the make-up of the Revolution was uniquely indigenous. The history of that seminal event cannot be fully grasped divorced from the influences that crept in from the major power poles abroad or, alternatively, from deliberate manipulations by a faction in the Carter administration. Several chapters of the narrative are devoted to the study of this latter aspect, sourced by recent finds in the hitherto untapped American archive files. It is my hope that this will help to answer a longstanding question discussed among Iran observers, given the lingering conspiracy theories and still rampant speculations about for- eign involvement. Finally, the issue of the inevitability of the Revolution is a topic that the book aims to address. A Harvard historian of revolutions, Clarence Crane Briton, once wrote—and Zbigniew Brzezinski quoted him in his memoirs: “Revolutions were inevitable only after they had happened.”1 Ill-judged policy decisions and missteps along the road, which sparked the revolt, are inherently avoidable, as this study demonstrates. Most emanated from systemic flaws, yet the more consequential ones came from tempestuous calls by the man at the helm, Mohammad-Reza Shah Pahlavi. Ill health may have compounded bad judgment and indecision. Yet the Shah was also the leader who refused to plunge the nation into civil war in order to save his throne. Some chapters in this volume shed light on this facet of the conundrum. One final point needs to be underscored. The topic stirs, even today, a great deal of passion among Iranians of different political persuasions. However, this book purports to be apolitical and non-judgmental. In describ- ing protagonists on either side of the divide I have remained within the strict confines of hard evidence and archives; the task of historian is to produce data and lay out facts but avoid conclusions, which so often hinge on subjec- tivity. No one is condemned or vindicated in the pages that follow. I am grateful to Palgrave for the opportunity that the publication of this book has afforded me to share what I consider a factual account and expla- nation of that seminal event. I have been fortunate to have worked with leading professionals at the history department of Palgrave New York as well as its peripheral divisions. My thanks go especially to Megan Laddusaw and Christine Pardue. In my research for this volume, I was privileged to be granted access by the Graduate Institute of International and Development AUTHOR’S PREFACE ix Studies, Geneva, to their vast digital network of academic material as well as the magnificent library. A freelance editor, Susan Kaufman, helped me with the Chicago formatting of my manuscript. My old friend and aca- demic companion, Bijan Dolatabadi, read several chapters of the manu- script and offered his insightful observations. So did another old friend, Iraj Amini, himself author of several valuable publications. Foremost, I wish to record my gratitude to Ambassador John Limbert and Professor Michael Axworthy, both renowned Iran experts, for taking time to read and comment on this volume. Nyon, Switzerland Darioush Bayandor April 2018 NOTE 1. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle: Memoirs of National Security Advisor (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1983), p. 355 [History Professor Crane Brinton was the author of classic book Anatomy of Revolution (W.W. Norton, New York, 1938)]. CONTENTS Part I The Pre-revolution Setting 1 1 A Retrospective 3 1 Social Forces and Political Dynamics in Modern Iran 3 2 Events and Protagonists in Post-war Iran 5 3 Socio-cultural Mutations in the 1960s 14 2 Nezam Shahanshahi: The Shah’s Imperial Order 27 1 An Autocracy in Disguise 27 2 The Two Faces of a Monarch 29 3 The Inner Circle 31 4 Oil Diplomacy (1963–1973) 34 5 An Economic Powerhouse 40 6 The Shah’s Great Army 47 7 A Regional Superpower 55 8 Iraq, the Kurds and the Settlement of the Shatt al-Arab Dispute 63 9 Nuclear Ambitions and Ambiguities 69 xi xii CONTENTS Part II The Onset of Revolution 89 3 Downslide 91 1 A Man in a Hurry 91 2 The Cycle of Boom and Bust 94 3 The Court’s Vanity Fair 98 4 The Opposition 109 1 Ayatollah Khomeini: The Years of Exile 109 2 Rebellious Youth 117 5 Changing Tack (1976–1977) 129 1 Images in the Curved Mirror 129 2 Liberalization and the Myth of Carter Ambiguity 133 3 Mutual Policy Readjustments 137 Part III The Revolution 143 6 1977: The Year of all Dangers 145 1 Tehran on the Eve of the Revolution 145 2 Sounding out Democracy 147 3 The Opposition Curve: From Civil Society to Radical Islam 150 4 The Shah’s Visit to the Carter White House (November 1977) 155 7 The Spark (Spring 1978) 161 1 Iran: Island of Stability 161 2 The Shah’s “Original Sin”: The “Rashidi–Motalq” Affair 163 3 Backlash in Tabriz 167 4 A Spring Not Like Others 169 8 Actors, Strategies and Structures 177 1 Mehdi Bazargan and His Game Plan 177 2 Kazem Shariatmadari: the Two Faces of a Quiescent Divine 180 3 The Shah Facing the Crisis 182 4 The Mosque Network 186 CONTENTS xiii 9 The Abadan File 195 1 The Event 195 2 The Cabal 199 3 The Enigma of an Appointment 202 10 Appeasement and Recoil 207 1 The Government of National Reconciliation (27 August–5 November 1978) 207 2 The Great September Confluence 210 3 Black Friday 210 11 October Countdown 225 1 The Ayatollah in Paris 225 2 Giscard d’Estaing’s Dilemma 230 3 Political Deadlock 233 4 Season of Strikes (Fall 1978) 238 5 Public Opinion Swing 242 12 November Countdown 251 1 Tehran: Tales of a Wasteland 251 2 Tug of War in Washington 253 3 The Soft Fist Option 259 4 The Voice of the Revolution Heard 261 5 The Perfect Scapegoat 263 13 The Military Spell: Prime Minister Gholam-Reza Azhari 271 1 Induction and Gains 271 2 Entanglement and Retreat 274 3 The Muharram Plebiscite 277 4 The Politics of Despair 282 14 Carter’s Quandary 293 1 The Carter Administration: A House Divided 293 2 Consultations Among Allies 300 3 Washington Dumps the Shah 303 4 The Guadeloupe Summit 310 xiv CONTENTS 15 The USSR and the Iranian Revolution 317 1 Expedience Vs.
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