SS21 Runway Trends Backed by Data

SPRING /SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND SS21 Runway Trends Backed by Data

Written by Nur Atiqah Kamarudin, Senior Business Intelligence Analyst SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND Introduction

Key Insights • Increasing Need for Comfortable Dressing: A dominant theme across SS21 collections, the relaxed and oversized silhouettes are already trending and continue to be popular in the mass market.

• Versatile WFH Outfits: Key runway trends this season reflects consumers’ lifestyle changes in the new normal. As validated by data, clothes that allow transition from lounging at home to jumping on video calls are seeing a significant increase in intake and demand.

• Slow in Sustainability: Despite increasing coverage, brands are not disciplined in sustainable practices nor mindfully incorporating eco- friendly materials.

The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the traditional runway format this year with big names including Marc Jacobs, Gucci, and Saint Laurent notably absent from the Spring/Summer 2021 (SS21) fashion weeks. Nonetheless, the designers who showcased their collections offered a practical vision for spring.

From digital showcases in the form of videos to hybrid ‘phygital’ presentations, clear fashion themes emerged. Many used the opportunity to reflect on the current turbulent times, but in an optimistic manner. Most of the collections evoked hope and optimism, with hints of escapism present across the four fashion capitals.

Website @Vogue SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND Introduction (cont’d)

From homewear to Cottagecore, this report analysed the key trends arising from the SS21 runways to guide assortment planning with data- backed insights and minimise risk.

Over 530,000 data points were screened from January to October 2020 across womenswear categories on these UK and US key fashion retailers:

1. Asos 8. Topshop 2. H&M 9. PrettyLittleThing 3. Zara 10. Forever 21 4. Missguided 11. Revolve 5. Nasty Gal 12. Cos 6. Shein 13. Massimo Dutti 7. Fashion Nova 14. Banana Republic

All data used in this report comes from products retailing online as tracked by Instagram @sheinofficial Omnilytics, unless otherwise mentioned. SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND Luxe Homewear

Comfort dressing has become a dominant theme in fashion, now with the increased time spent indoors. Loungewear, a trend that surged at the peak of the pandemic has gone mainstream as consumers prioritised comfort.

While loungewear was the centrepiece of the SS21 shows, homewear emerged as an equally noteworthy trend. This was reflected on the runways through fluffy slippers and robes as seen at Balenciaga. Even traditionally dressed-up labels like Rodarte and Tom Ford went casual, incorporating relaxed sweatsuits and luxe pyjamas in their collections.

Balenciaga Cynthia Rowley Rodarte

Koché Simon Miller Tom Ford SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND C H A R T 1 : TRADE MOVEMENT FOR SATIN PYJAMAS Luxe Homewear (cont’d)

Elevated Loungewear Expanding on the loungewear trend, designers embraced the luxe side of loungewear with silk and satin pyjamas that can transition seamlessly from day to night. The incorporation of homewear in the runways brought a positive reaction from the masses. Despite the 22% decline in new arrivals for satin pyjamas compared to last year (Chart 1), sell-out increased by 72% to an all-time high in October. This was led by Asos and Shein.

Besides pyjamas, robes and house slippers are also having a moment. The sell-out for robes increased by 148% against last year as retailers increased investment by 40%.

More time spent at home also resulted in a rising demand for house slippers, as sell-out rate remained high since May. The 288% YoY increase in sell-out backed the role of comfort in today’s consumers, with fluffy and faux fur designs preferred.

5 SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND C H A R T 2 : TREND PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW FOR LOUNGEWEAR Luxe Homewear (cont’d)

Loungewear Categories to Stay While some may experience loungewear fatigue, data shows the trend has yet to see signs of waning. It remains on the uptrend across most apparel categories (Chart 2). With more countries facing the second wave of coronavirus, loungewear is expected to continue in popularity entering 2021.

Loungewear staples – Joggers, Hoodies & Sweatshirts and Co-Ords observed over 100% surge in new-in and sell-out compared to last year (Chart 3). With a steady sell-out throughout the SS20 period, retailers continued to invest in these pieces entering Fall, especially Hoodies & Sweatshirts. C H A R T 3 : TRADE MOVEMENT FOR LOUNGEWEAR CATEGORIES

Sell-out for the three categories peaked in May as many countries were still in lockdown. Though they declined and returned to pre-pandemic rates in August, sell-out rates saw a gradual increment in October. The sharp intake in Fall coupled with steady demand for the category backed the longevity of the highly versatile style.

6 C H A R T 4 : BESTSELLING SWEATSHIRTS & CO - ORDS SORTED BY MOST REPLENISHED SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND Luxe Homewear (cont’d)

Seasonless Appeal For Hoodies & Sweatshirts, slouchy and oversized pieces in core colours, as well as muted palettes were popular. As consumers look to invest in seasonless items, Loungewear Sets or Co-ords emerged as must-have items due to their versatility.

Brands played with materials to accommodate to the changes in temperature – opting for lightweight knit set with matching shorts for the Spring/Summer season. Entering Fall, the sweatsuits style, with matching hoodie and joggers in soft-touch fabric such as acrylic was prevalent.

Kim Kardashian’s recent velour tracksuits launch for her brand Skims, officially brought back the Juicy Couture sweats era, adding to the longevity of the loungewear trend. C H A R T 5 : BESTSELLING SATIN PYJAMAS SORTED BY NEW - IN

Busy Print Dominance The new satin pyjamas that caught consumers’ hearts were mostly in classic cut, relaxed fit and with long sleeves. Busy all-over prints trumped plain ones, as they can easily transition from virtual meetings at home to quick meet-ups outside.

7 SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND Cottagecore Evolution

Back to Nature Numerous designers from Rodarte to Erdem embraced nature as the main theme this season. This was evident in how the collections were presented, giving a nod to the uprising Cottagecore trend. The trend, which incorporates rural and countryside living, has become one of the most commercial themes this year with #cottagecore used in over 925,000 posts on Instagram and counting. The pandemic has left consumers yearning for simpler times and embracing escapist fashion.

Besides vintage florals, roomy smock dresses in gingham checks were prevalent across the four fashion capitals. Collars were even louder this season, from the super-sized Peter Pan collars seen at Philosophy di Anna Sui Erdem Philosophy di Lorenzo Serafini Lorenzo Serafini to the adorned neckerchief spotted at Erdem. These traditionally feminine detailing further streghthened the already bubbling Cottagecore trend in the mass market. Other stylistic elements included lace, Broderie Anglaise, ruffles, puffy sleeves and embroidery.

Rodarte Christian Dior Rokh SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND C H A R T 6 : NEW - IN MOVEMENT FOR STATEMENT COLLARS

600 Cottagecore Evolution (cont’d) New-In Count

500 Sell-Out Count New Neckline The statement collar trend has injected new variations to the current 400 popular square neckline. These came mostly in Peter Pan and 300

exaggerated point collars, with embroidered lace detailing. Count SKU

200 New-in across Tops and Dresses with oversized collars saw increased intake entering Fall, led by Shein, Asos, H&M and Zara. Although newness 100 dipped in October, sell-out rose significantly with 41% MoM growth from 0 August. The continuous need for chest-up dressing will propel the Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2020 statement collar trend in the next season.

C H A R T 7 : NEW - IN TOPS & DRESSES WITH STATEMENT COLLARS SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND C H A R T 8 : TRADE MOVEMENT FOR SMOCK DRESSES Cottagecore Evolution (cont’d)

Strong Demand for Smock Dresses The loose, billowing style received growing interest throughout the pandemic, sealing its iconic status in the Cottagecore trend.

Total smock dresses in the market saw a steady increase since January, with sell-out gaining momentum at the height of the pandemic in April. Demand continued to rise throughout the Spring/Summer season, reaching a peak in October at 41% sell-out rate. With a staggering 124% more newness this year, sell-out grew in tandem by 172%.

The performance of smock dresses portrayed consumers’ ‘see now buy now’ sentiment perfectly. Despite being traditionally seen as a Spring/Summer style, sell-out rates indicate a strong demand in Fall. As some employees will not be returning to the office until 2021, the house dress style is expected to stick around in the coming season. C H A R T 9 : PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR SMOCK DRESSES

Prints in Demand Floral print came through with a seasonless appeal, with ditsy dominating the smock dresses assortment this year. The pattern translated into demand, as it contributed to 36% of the total sell-out for printed dresses.

Gingham is the next potential of growth after floral print, with sell-out leaping by 230% against last year. Demand for gingham dresses gained momentum in June and reached a peak in October, with a sell-out rate of 54%.

10 SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND CHART 10: NEW - I N & S E L L - OUT GROWTH FOR COTTAGECORE AESTHETIC Cottagecore Evolution (cont’d) Puff sleeves Ditsy florals New-In Feminine Details Prevail Ruffles Sell-Out Comfortable day dresses in feminine details reigned supreme in 2020 as Maxi new-in and sell-out growths showed significant increase against last year. Loose fit Among the popular styles included puffy sleeves, ditsy floral print, ruffles, Tiered tiered and maxi length. Voluminous sleeves have continually returned Midi season after season since Spring 2018 and still shows no signs of slowing Shirred down. The style was everywhere in SS21 fashion weeks, from dresses to Gathered neck jackets and tops. Square neckline

Embroidered Fuss-Free Style 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900% The bestsellers for smock dress in SS20 were led by Shein, Asos, Missguided and PrettyLittleThing. CHART 11: BESTSELLING SMOCK DRESSES SORTED BY MOST REPLENISHED

The simplicity and versatility of this outfit makes it a popular WFH style, comfortable to lounge at home yet still look put together for virtual meetings.

11 SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND CHART 12: BESTSELLING SMOCK TOPS & JUMPSUITS SORTED BY MOST REPLENISHED Cottagecore Evolution (cont’d)

Other Interpretations The Cottagecore trend goes beyond roomy, feminine dresses. Batsheva and Isabel Marant showcased their iteration of the trend through gingham print jumpsuits and puffed sleeves tops for SS21.

While Dresses accounted for the majority (70%) of the smock style, Tops and Jumpsuits & Playsuits were the next popular categories for the silhouette. Sweetheart neckline showed a massive increase in sell-out against last year by 1200%. Puff sleeves remain popular, with over 300% growth in new arrivals and sell-out respectively.

Pretty in Pastel Pastel colours gained traction with the booming Cottagecore trend. The CHART 9: BESTSELLING SMOCK DRESSES ultra-feminine styles were mostly paired with soft colour palettes. Besides soft pink and light blue hues, pastel shades of purple and green were also driving demand this year. C H A R T 13: OUT OF STOCK COLOURS FOR DRESSES, TOPS AND JUMPSUITS & PLAYSUITS

2019 2020

12 SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND New Minimalism

Updated Classics While striking colours, bold prints and voluminous silhouettes were present at the SS21 shows to express optimism and hope during uncertain times, clean lines were equally prevalent. Putting timeless investment pieces back in focus, designers presented pared-back looks of tailored garments to accommodate the new WFH lifestyle.

The contemporary soft tailoring was mostly presented through oversized blazers and high-waisted trousers. The classic staples saw an update as designers like Balmain and Fendi created strong shoulder looks to elevate smart tailoring. The pairing with cropped and bra tops undoubtedly reflects the new normal as consumers yearn for comfortable tailored Hermès Balmain Emilia Wickstead clothing that can make a fashion statement during virtual meetings.

Max Mara Victoria Beckham Boss SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND CHART 14: TREND PERFORMANCE FOR RELAXED/ OVERSIZED SILHOUETTES New Minimalism (cont’d)

As validated by our data, the relaxed silhouette was already trending at Cos, Massimo Dutti and Banana Republic. The style was apparent across Tops, Outerwear, Pants & Leggings and Jeans.

Versatile Outerwear As retailers started to increase Jackets in relaxed and oversized silhouettes in July, the style is expected to continue gaining popularity in SS21. The renowned minimalist brand Cos had an uptake in new-in for relaxed blazers by 150% compared to last year, albeit in low volume.

The offering has also reached the masses, with fast fashion retailers increasing intake since May and recorded strong sell-out, led by Asos, C H A R T 1 5 : TRADE ANALYSIS FOR RELAXED/ OVERSIZED OUTERWEAR Zara and Missguided. SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND CHART 16: BESTSELLING RELAXED/ OVERSIZED BLAZERS & TAILORED JACKETS New Minimalism (cont’d)

Massimo Dutti drove 100% full price sell-out for relaxed Blazers & Tailored Jackets in linen material. The bestsellers included classic double- breasted blazers with minimal detailing. While printed options including checks and pinstripes were available, solid core colours in neutral tones were more popular.

Modern Pairing Bralette was another hero piece of SS21 as it cropped up at numerous shows including Emilia Wickstead, Hermès, Molly Goddard, Christian Siriano and Alberta Ferretti. Designers styled oversized blazers over the bra tops, as a transition from loungewear to Zoom meeting-ready.

While the combined style has yet to trickle down to the masses, it is one trend to look out for. Crop tops can be seen as an alternative to the slinky bralettes, pairing with high-waisted trousers for a minimal midriff-baring look.

15 SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND CHART 17: TREND PERFORMANCE FOR RELAXED/ OVERSIZED SILHOUETTES New Minimalism (cont’d)

Baggy and High-Rise 2020 saw a brief comeback of the low-rise trousers and jeans but was surpassed by high-waisted wide-leg pants that were all the rage at the SS21 shows. The style can be seen from Chanel’s hot pink paper bag pants to Louis Vuitton’s masculine-cut trousers cinched with thick belts.

The baggy trouser trend dictates yet another comfort-seeking preference in clothing. The loose silhouette was already trending at Cos, Massimo Dutti and Banana Republic, with high trend scores recorded for Culottes, Bootcut, and Wide Leg Pants.

Neutral Tones C H A R T 1 8 : NEW - IN COLOURS FOR TOP APPAREL CATEGORIES Although the monochromatic beige look has been around for seasons now, the recent SS21 shows continued to build popularity around the shades. These neutral tones were present at Max Mara, Hermès, Sportmax and Victoria Beckham.

Besides blue, newness from Massimo Dutti and Cos were mostly decked in shades of brown, nude and light pink. SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND

Sustainability CHART 19: GROWTH IN NEW - IN COUNT BY SUSTAINABLE MATERIALS

Eco-Friendly Materials Silk The SS21 shows were unequivocally more than just clothes. Many designers used the shows to spread meaningful messages, and climate Linen change was one of them. Stella McCartney, Gabriella Hearst, Self Portrait, and Balenciaga were among the major fashion brands that have Tencel taken action to reduce their impact on the planet. Lyocell

Balenciaga used 94% sustainable materials, while Stella McCartney Organic Cotton assessed its environmental impact and is focused on avoiding high-impact Recycled Materials materials.

Hemp Fast fashion brands, however, are still miles away from achieving sustainability. Despite the growing spotlight on sustainability, retailers Better Cotton have reduced their investments on eco-friendly fabrics compared to last -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% year (Chart 19). This is due to the current weak demand for sustainable goods. While consumers have polled to be in favour of sustainably-made products in a new cross-European survey by IBM and Morning Consult, few have exercised the new buying habit in real life.

As sustainability continues to impact the industry, brands must play a part in promoting awareness and demand through educating consumers on the social and environmental concerns brought upon by irresponsible practices.

17 SPRING/SUMMER 2021 • PRODUCT & TREND Key Next Steps

Pay Attention to Current Demand: The Covid-19 pandemic continues to impact every aspect of the fashion ecosystem. The ‘seasonless’ collections presented in the recent SS21 shows have reinstated the importance of focusing on shifting consumer preferences. As demonstrated by data, the preference for comfortable dressing was evident across key apparel categories and will continue to persist with more time spent at home.

Incorporate Analytics: Building an assortment based on the many different themes and trends coming from the runways can be overwhelming. It is also risky, especially if the trends are short-lived. Instead, brands should validate them with data-backed analysis using fa ashion market insights tool like Omnilytics. This not only minimises guesswork and increases accuracy in meeting consumer demand but also enables brands to have the first-mover advantage in emerging trends that are backed by data.

Integrate Validated Trends in Collections: When it comes to commercial interpretation, relying solely on runway trends is risky. As backed by data, SEA brands looking to finalise Chinese New Year collections can prioritise on tailoring the looks based on current validated demand.

As comfort continues to play a key role in both apparel and non-apparel categories, brands can incorporate relaxed silhouettes, as represented in the three trends. Styles that were backed by strong sell-out growths such as puff sleeves, ditsy florals and ruffles can also be incorporated but should be adapted to meet a brand’s DNA and positioning.

Instagram @missguided Definition of Key Metrics

Metric Description

The total count of stock keeping unit (SKU) i.e. the number of styles that a brand offers. In the report context, it is the total product count Assortment SKUs Count within a data set.

Popularity Score Popularity score takes into account product age, replenishment factor and discount rate over time.

Trend score is the average popularity score in the last 6 months. It is the difference in popularity score between current category and all Trend Score categories. If current category score is above all categories average, the line will be green, and the score will be positive. The more popular a category relative to other categories is, the higher is the score. The less popular categories will be red, with a negative score.

Median Price Refers to the price of the product at the mid point of the data set.

New-In The products that are newly added to the retail website within the timeframe selected.

New-In Contribution % Calculated by adding the number of new-in product count over the total new-in count within a data set.

Discounted The products that were listed with a markdown within the time frame selected.

Sell-Out A product registers a sell-out event when it is indicated as out-of-stock or no longer published on the website.

Sell-Out Rate Calculated by dividing the number of out-of-stock product count over the total product count within a data set.

Signals consumers’ willingness to pay at full price. It is calculated by dividing the number of out-of-stock product count at full price over the total Sell-Out Rate at Full Price number of out-of-stock product count.

Sell-Out Contribution Calculated by dividing the number of sell-out product count over the total sell-out count within a data set. www.omnilytics.co

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