The Proliferation Security Initiative, 2003-2008: A New and Effective Model for Proliferation Prevention? Richard A. Love A thesis in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Humanities and Social Sciences UNSW Canberra at ADFA March 2017 2 1 ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. 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Abstract The objective of this dissertation is to explore and evaluate the development and effectiveness of political commitments and the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) as proliferation prevention and international security tool. This study evaluates how PSI differed from other more traditional multilateral proliferation preventions activities and the degree to which it was a departure from conventional strategies at the time for countering weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The paper assesses in detail how the Bush administration changed from a platform largely rejecting multilateralism and international engagement, to a policy of reaching out diplomatically to other countries to persuade and ultimately develop a global initiative based on unenforceable political commitments. The research indicates that sweeping changes in the perceptions of the WMD threat due to 9/11 and the aftermath of two additional events, the So San interdiction and the rollback of A.Q. Khan Network, radically changed the Bush administration’s strategy for combating WMD proliferation. This dissertation will assess the degree to which PSI represents not just a change in policy but a change in process, will examine how this change came to be, and will assess what the impacts of the PSI process are. The scope of this effort is to study the process of the development of PSI during the George W. Bush administration. Through the methodology of process tracing and participant / observer analysis, this dissertation provides a rich and “thick” description of the origins and development of PSI and the process that led to PSI’s conception and implementation. While much policy analysis is written on PSI and its relative value – what PSI got “right” or “wrong,” little is written on the process that led to it. PSI as conceived, developed and implemented, represents a unique opportunity to explore the maturation of an international regime by policy-makers hesitant to embrace multilateral solutions. Why did the Bush White House change its approach to WMD proliferation? What circumstances and who drove this change? These “how” and “why now” questions are addressed in this dissertation. The Bush administration developed new tools such as the Proliferation Security Initiative and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism due to their international reach, flexibility and responsiveness to WMD threats. As envisioned, PSI was operationally focused rather than policy or strategy focused, and engaged the international community to build more effective, legal, and operationally capable international structures that deterred and imposed costs and risks on would-be proliferators, be they state or non-state oriented. The process that led to PSI was less an intentional new model for proliferation prevention than a pragmatic response to keep pace with a rapidly changing proliferation environment. The study concludes that PSI was and is a new model, but one that exists alongside enhanced traditional tools. The four foundational concepts of PSI of non-binding political commitment, adherence to a set of principles, and consistent with domestic and international law are, in and of themselves, not new, but their application to WMD interdiction and the attention to operations is new. The old tools lacked an operational focus. PSI addresses this gap. While the Bush administration pursued tightening existing nonproliferation regimes, the application of PSI specifically to interdiction activities represented a new approach to proliferation prevention. PSI was not only a change in policy, but a change in process. The Bush administration changed not only the policy but also the process of responding to WMD threats due to not only the September 11th attacks, but also subsequent events such as the So San incident, which caused the administration to change its perceptions of both the threat environment and the need for new tools. 4 Table of Contents List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 10 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ 12 Chapter 1: Introduction, Aims and Significance, Methodology and Questions to be Addressed 14 1.1 Aims and significance .................................................................................................... 14 1.2 Why Does PSI as a Case in International Security Policy Matter? ................................ 23 1.3 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 24 1.4 Key Questions to be Addressed ..................................................................................... 37 1.5 Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 39 1.6 Organization ................................................................................................................... 39 Chapter 2: Proliferation Security Initiative Literature Review .................................................... 43 2.1 PSI as a Continuation of Existing Proliferation Prevention Regimes ............................ 47 2.2 PSI Outside Existing Regimes ....................................................................................... 56 2.3 Literature Critical or Suspicious of PSI ......................................................................... 64 2.4 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 84 Chapter 3: The International Security and Proliferation Environment 2001-2008 ...................... 86 3.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 86 3.2 Global, Networked and Increasingly Private ................................................................. 91 3.3 The Security and Threat Environment and the BBC China ........................................... 94 3.4 The Bush administration Attempts to Meet the Threat .................................................. 99 3.5 Nuclear Weapons ......................................................................................................... 101 3.6 Radiological Dispersal Devices ................................................................................... 105 3.7 Biological Weapons ..................................................................................................... 109 5 3.8 Chemical Weapons ....................................................................................................... 116 3.9 Proliferation Trends and Concerns during the Bush Administration ........................... 120 3.10 The Bush administration View of Proliferation Trends ............................................... 128 3.11 From Proliferation Threat