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A Network Analysis of Social Balance in Conflict in the Maghreb Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations Student Graduate Works 3-13-2013 A Network Analysis of Social Balance in Conflict in the Maghreb Eric A. Miller Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Peace and Conflict Studies Commons, and the Regional Sociology Commons Recommended Citation Miller, Eric A., "A Network Analysis of Social Balance in Conflict in the Maghreb" (2013). Theses and Dissertations. 971. https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/971 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Graduate Works at AFIT Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of AFIT Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A NETWORK ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL BALANCE IN CONFLICT IN THE MAGHREB THESIS Eric A. Miller, Major, USA AFIT-ENS-13-M-12 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, United States Army, Department of Defense, or the United States Government. This material is declared a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. A NETWORK ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL BALANCE IN CONFLICT IN THE MAGHREB THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air University Air Education and Training Command In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Operations Research Eric A. Miller, MS Major, USA March 2013 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED A NETWORK ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL BALANCE IN CONFLICT IN THE MAGHREB Eric A. Miller, MS Major, USA Approved: ___________________________________ __________ Dr. Richard F. Deckro (Chairman) Date Professor of Operations Research Department of Operational Sciences ___________________________________ __________ Dr. James F. Morris (Member) Date Adjunct Assistant Professor of Operations Research Department of Operational Sciences Abstract This work offers the U. S. military and national security structure a methodology to analyze tension within signed networks based on social balance theory, presents a process to partition a signed network to identify likely subsets within the network, and pinpoints unique actors and relationships based on the structure of the network. Relationships identified to cause increased tension within the network are discovered and analyzed. Identifying this tension provides analysts with insight into the complexities of the network and potential relationships to target to stabilize or destabilize a network. Two Social Network Analysis models have been developed analyzing the relationships of key actors associated with the 2012-2013 conflict in Northern Mali. Relations between the terrorist group Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), several Tuareg organizations, the Malian government and other key actors are assessed, both prior to and immediately following French and other international forces involvement beginning in January 2013. The potential effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated, through the Mali example, in the identification of a specific relationship between two organizations as being under tension to change; subsequently one of the organizations split, reducing the tension and irreversibly changing the network. iv Acknowledgements I would like to thank Dr. Richard Deckro for his patience and assistance in guiding me through this process. Our conversations covering math, history, politics and war were always insightful and educational. In addition, my appreciation is extended to Dr. James Morris. His assistance and encouragement, always providing positive, constructive feedback, were influential to the successful completion of this endeavor. My sponsor, Mr. Jannarone, rallied his colleagues on many occasions in my endless pursuit for more information. Additionally, I would like to thank Dr. Robert Norton and Zachary Johnston of Auburn University who assisted me in data collection. Lastly, I am forever indebted to my wife for her support and am thankful for her joyful spirit despite late nights and long hours. v Table of Contents Page Abstract ............................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. v Table of Contents ................................................................................................................ vi List of Figures ....................................................................................................................... x List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... xii 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Problem Statement .............................................................................................. 1 1.2 The Adversary ....................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Problem Approach ............................................................................................... 5 1.4 Assumptions ......................................................................................................... 7 1.5 Overview and Format ........................................................................................... 8 2 Literature Review ..................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Introduction....................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Background and Overview of Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Conflict in Mali ............................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2.1 AQIM Structure. ......................................................................................... 2-8 2.2.2 AQIM Leadership. ...................................................................................... 2-9 2.2.3 Regional Dynamics. .................................................................................. 2-11 2.2.4 AQIM Affiliates and Off-Shoots................................................................ 2-15 2.2.5 Historical Context of Mali Conflict. .......................................................... 2-21 2.2.6 United States Efforts in the Region.......................................................... 2-25 2.3 Dark Social Networks ...................................................................................... 2-28 2.4 Graph Theory and Social Network Analysis .................................................... 2-29 2.5 Structural Balance Theory ............................................................................... 2-33 2.6 Subsets within a Signed Network .................................................................... 2-38 2.6.1 Two Subsets in a Balanced Signed Graph. ............................................... 2-38 vi 2.6.2 Identifying More than Two Subsets of a Signed Graph. .......................... 2-39 2.6.3 Blockmodeling. ......................................................................................... 2-41 2.7 Measuring Imbalance in Signed Networks ...................................................... 2-46 2.8 Partitioning Signed Networks.......................................................................... 2-47 2.8.1 Relocation Method. ................................................................................. 2-49 2.9 Social Network Analysis Metrics of Signed Networks ..................................... 2-52 2.9.1 Centrality. ................................................................................................. 2-53 2.9.2 Prestige. ................................................................................................... 2-56 2.10 Chapter Summary............................................................................................ 2-57 3 Partitioning and Assessing Signed Social Networks ................................................. 3-1 3.1 Introduction....................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Data Requirements and Limitations.................................................................. 3-1 3.3 Partitioning Signed Networks with Generalized Blockmodeling ...................... 3-2 3.3.1 Partitioning a Balanced Network. .............................................................. 3-2 3.3.2 Partitioning Imbalanced Networks. ........................................................... 3-5 3.4 Partitioning Signed Networks with Relaxed Blockmodeling ............................. 3-8 3.5 Evaluating the Partitioned Network................................................................ 3-10 3.5.1 Social Network Measures. ....................................................................... 3-10 3.5.2 Evaluating Inconsistencies. .....................................................................
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