Achieving Peace in Northern Mali Past Agreements, Local Conflicts, and the Prospects for a Durable Settlement
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Achieving Peace in Northern Mali Past Agreements, Local Conflicts, and the Prospects for a Durable Settlement Stephanie Pezard, Michael Shurkin C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr892 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data ISBN: 978-0-8330-8823-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark Cover image courtesy of Rebecca Zimmerman; used with permission. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report examines the prospects for stabilization in Mali following the political and military crisis that began in 2012. In that perspec- tive, it examines why past peace accords failed and the extent to which those failures can be attributed to poor implementation and lack of good will from Bamako (the most commonly heard explanation) or to the presence of “spoilers” among northern communities whose politi- cal interests clashed with those of other factions. The report highlights the key grievances that have yet to be effectively addressed and suggests ways to include them in future peace and security agreements. Finally, to identify lessons that might be applied to Mali, the report examines the factors behind the relative stability of Mali’s neighbor Niger, which faces nearly all the same drivers of instability that Mali does. This research was sponsored by the Office of African Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the Inter- national Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop- ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...............................................................vii Summary .......................................................................... ix Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix Abbreviations .................................................................... xxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO A Brief History of Mali’s Rebellions and the Implementation of Peace Accords ................................................................. 5 A Diverse and Divided Population ............................................... 7 First Tuareg Rebellion: 1963–1964 .............................................. 9 Second Tuareg Rebellion: 1990–1996 ..........................................12 Third Tuareg Rebellion: 2006–2009 ...........................................16 Conclusion .........................................................................21 CHAPTER THREE Explaining the Failure of Past Peace Accords ............................. 23 Lack of Representativeness: Who Is Signing the Peace Accords? ........... 24 What Is Driving the Fighting? ................................................. 24 Flawed Decentralization and Democracy ......................................29 Limited Legitimacy of Bamako .................................................33 Persistent Insecurity ...............................................................39 Absence of Justice and Reconciliation ..........................................41 v vi Achieving Peace in Northern Mali CHAPTER FOUR Moving Forward .................................................................45 Building Representativeness: Democracy ......................................45 Building Representativeness: Involving Traditional Chiefs ..................49 Building Representativeness: Dealing with Armed Groups ..................51 CHAPTER FIVE Is There a Nigerien Model of Resilience? ....................................59 Mali and Niger: Two Very Similar Neighbors .................................62 Three Hypotheses to Explain Niger’s Resilience ..............................67 Implications for Mali ............................................................ 86 CHAPTER SIX Conclusion ........................................................................89 References .........................................................................93 Figures and Tables Figures S.1. Map of Mali ........................................................... x 1.1. Map of Mali ........................................................... 2 2.1. The Structure and Hierarchies of the Kel Adagh Confederation ........................................................10 5.1. Map of Niger ........................................................ 60 5.2. Niger’s Estimated Defense Budget, 2010–2014 ..................85 Tables 2.1. Peace Accords Signed in Mali Since Independence ............... 6 5.1. A Comparison of Mali’s and Niger’s Socioeconomic Indicators .............................................................63 5.2. Attacks in Niger Related to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb ..............................................................81 vii Summary The French-led military intervention in Mali that began on January 11, 2013, has succeeded in scattering, and severely weakening, the Islamist groups that had seized control of the northern half of the country over the course of the previous year. The French campaign brought most of the region back under at least nominal Malian government control. However, it has not addressed any of the political and ethnic conflicts that generated the crisis, and these conflicts are already reasserting themselves. Clashes between the Malian army and the Tuareg group that started the rebellion in early 2012, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (Mouvement national de libération de l’Azawad [MNLA]), as well as the continuing insurgent and terrorist activities of the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) despite the continuing presence of French troops, bodes poorly for Bamako’s ability to control the region in the future. It emphasizes the need to craft new political and security arrangements that will offer better prospects for stability. Figure S.1 shows Mali and its neighbors. Although many Mali and peace-building experts speak of the need for greater political inclusion, foreign security assistance, and integration of northerners into Mali’s armed forces and administra- tion, their proposals are short on details. This report attempts to fill that gap and suggest a more efficient application of limited resources by (1) providing more-concrete information as to the viability of spe- cific political and security arrangements, given Mali’s past experience; (2) identifying the political actors that are most likely to play a role in the future political and security arrangements in northern Mali; and ix x Achieving Peace in Northern Mali Figure S.1 Map of Mali SOURCE: Central Intelligence Agency, “Mali,” last updated June 20, 2014a. RAND RR892-S.1 (3) drawing on lessons learned from similar conflicts in the surround- ing region—in particular, Niger. Study Purpose and Approach This report builds on recent RAND work on the communities and politics of northern Mali by identifying, with as much specificity as possible, the political and security arrangements that would offer the Summary xi best prospects for enduring peace and stability, as well as the potential pitfalls that such arrangements might encounter and the actors most likely to help sustain those arrangements. This involves addressing the efficacy of some past conflict-mitigation mechanisms used in northern Mali—such as political agreements and integration of former militants into security forces—as well as identifying some of the individuals, institutions, and groups with the influence and legitimacy to make a significant contribution to a negotiated settlement. In the process, this report examines why past peace accords failed and the extent to which those failures can be attributed to poor implementation and lack of good will from Bamako (the most commonly heard explanation) or to the presence of “spoilers” among northern communities whose political interests clashed with other