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Challenges to Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from the Americasbarometer 2006-07

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Challenges to Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from the Americasbarometer 2006-07 ………… …………… …………………… ……………… ……………………… ………………… … …………………………… … CCChhhaaalllllleeennngggeeesss tttooo DDDeeemmmooocccrrraaacccyyy iiinnn LLLaaatttiiinnn AAAmmmeeerrriiicccaaa aaannnddd ttthhheee CCCaaarrriiibbbbbbeeeaaannn::: EEEvvviiidddeeennnccceee fffrrrooommm ttthhheee AAAmmmeeerrriiicccaaasssBBBaaarrrooommmeeettteeerrr 222000000666---000777 ………… …………… …………………… ……………… ……………………… ………………… … …………………………… … Mitchell A. Seligson, Ph.D., Editor … … ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… … The publication of this report was made possible thanks to the support of the Democracy and Governance program of United States Agency for International Development. The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development. March, 2008 Challenges to Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from the AmericasBarometer 2006-07 CONTENT Preface................................................................................................................................. v Foreword...........................................................................................................................vii The AmericasBarometer, 2006-2007: Background to the Study ............................................................ vii Acknowledgements................................................................................................................................... x Overview ..........................................................................................................................xiii Part I. Challenges to the Institutional Infrastructure of Democracy............................ 1 I. The Rise of Populism and the Left: Challenge to Democratic Consolidation? .... 3 Mitchell A. Seligson Abstract ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 The Political Orientation of Latin Americans is Important to Democracy ............................................... 5 Political Orientation Matters: People Vote their Beliefs..........................................................6 Leftists are Less Likely to Favor some Core Democracy Values ..........................................10 Latin Americans are not Ready to Jettison Democratic Institutions....................................................... 13 Conclusions: Political Institutions and Values Remain Important.......................................................... 16 References............................................................................................................................................... 18 II. Illiberal Democracy and Normative Democracy: How is Democracy Defined in the Americas?............................................................................................................ 21 Julio F. Carrión Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 21 Mass Conceptualizations of Democracy................................................................................................. 23 How Consistent is the Support for Democracy? ....................................................................30 Who Is More Likely to Embrace Liberal Democracy? ........................................................................... 37 Concluding Remarks............................................................................................................................... 45 References............................................................................................................................................... 47 III. “Throw them All Out”? Attitudes towards Political Parties in the Americas.... 53 María Fernanda Boidi Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 53 Weak Citizen-party Linkages in the Americas ....................................................................................... 54 Why Trust in Political Parties Matters .................................................................................................... 57 Political Parties and Democratic Consolidation in the Region ............................................................... 67 References............................................................................................................................................... 71 IV. Economic Performance and Support for the System: Economic Challenges for Latin American Democracies .................................................................................. 73 Vivian Schwarz-Blum Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 73 Development, Economic Growth and Support for the System ............................................................... 84 Conclusions............................................................................................................................................. 86 References............................................................................................................................................... 88 i Challenges to Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean: . Evidence from the AmericasBarometer 2006-07 V. Decentralize or Centralize? Challenges for Reform of the State and Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean...................................................................... 89 Daniel Montalvo Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 89 Decentralization, Centralization and Intergovernmental Transfers ........................................................ 90 The State of Decentralization in Latin America and the Caribbean........................................................ 92 Public Opinion: Political Trust among Institutions and Support for Decentralization ........................... 94 Comparative Level of Municipal Political Trust versus Other Democratic Institutions......................... 97 Political Trust in Municipal Government per Country ..........................................................98 Political Trust in the Municipal Government Compared with Trust in the National Government, per Country.......................................................................................................99 Variables that Determine Political Trust in Municipalities in Latin America and the Caribbean..............................................................................................................................102 Centralize or decentralize?.................................................................................................................... 104 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 109 References............................................................................................................................................. 111 VI. Is the Vote for the left a Risk or Opportunity for Democracy in Latin America?. ................................................................................................................................ 119 Rosario Queirolo Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. 119 First Argument: Voting Left as a Backlash Against the Washington Consensus ................................. 121 Theories, Hypotheses and Country Cases............................................................................................. 123 Economic voting theory .......................................................................................................123 Cleavages Created by Political Process................................................................................125 The Cases .............................................................................................................................126 The Model and Results.......................................................................................................................... 128 Results................................................................................................................................................... 130 Second Argument: Voting Left as a Risk for Latin American Democracy ......................................... 133 Results ..................................................................................................................................134 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 139 References............................................................................................................................................. 141 Part II. Challenges to Democracy from Civil Society................................................. 145 VII. Social Trust, Economic Inequality, and Democracy in the Americas ............... 147 Abby B. Córdova Guillén Abstract ................................................................................................................................................
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