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Incorporating Long-Distance Travel Into Transportation Planning in the United States

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Incorporating Long-Distance Travel Into Transportation Planning in the United States UC Davis White Papers Title Incorporating Long-Distance Travel into Transportation Planning in the United States Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0ft8b3b5 Author Aultman-Hall, Lisa Publication Date 2018-10-01 eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California Incorporating Long- Distance Travel into Transportation Planning in the United States A White Paper from the National Center for October 2018 Sustainable Transportation Lisa Aultman-Hall, University of Vermont About the National Center for Sustainable Transportation The National Center for Sustainable Transportation is a consortium of leading universities committed to advancing an environmentally sustainable transportation system through cutting- edge research, direct policy engagement, and education of our future leaders. Consortium members include: University of California, Davis; University of California, Riverside; University of Southern California; California State University, Long Beach; Georgia Institute of Technology; and University of Vermont. More information can be found at: ncst.ucdavis.edu. U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) Disclaimer The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented herein. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the United States Department of Transportation’s University Transportation Centers program, in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof. Acknowledgments This study was funded by a grant from the National Center for Sustainable Transportation (NCST), supported by the USDOT through the University Transportation Centers program. The author would like to thank the NCST and USDOT for their support of university-based research in transportation, and especially for the funding provided in support of this project. I am grateful for the years of in-depth discussions about long-distance travel from Dr. Jeffrey LaMondia and Chester Harvey. The ideas developed during this work would not be the same without their critical thinking. I am also appreciative of the on-going committed contributions of Jonathan Dowds to the portfolio of long-distance travel research. His constructive evaluations always improve our group’s work. Contributions to this white paper also came from University of Vermont undergraduate and graduate students, Hannah Ullman, Sarah Howerter, Anuarbek Onayev, Greg Thivierge, Ben Kaufman, Madeline Suender, and Xiao Xiao. I am very grateful for being hosted so well in 2016-2017 at the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies while conducting this research. I appreciate the California Department of Transportation and FHWA sharing travel datasets. Incorporating Long-Distance Travel into Transportation Planning in the United States A National Center for Sustainable Transportation White Paper October 2018 Lisa Aultman-Hall, Transportation Research Center, University of Vermont [page intentionally left blank] TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... iv 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Setting the Context ......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 What Exactly is Long-Distance Travel? ........................................................................... 2 1.3 White Paper Outline ....................................................................................................... 2 2. Long-Distance Travel Over Time ............................................................................................. 3 2.1 Air Travel ......................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Surface Long-Distance Travel Growth in the United States ........................................... 4 3. Long-Distance Travel and Sustainability ................................................................................. 7 3.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Long-Distance Travel ................................................... 7 3.2 Sustainability in Terms of Economy, Equity, and Well-being ......................................... 9 4. Prior Long-Distance Travel Research .................................................................................... 13 4.1 Early Years of Long-Distance Travel Modeling in the U.S. (pre-1995) .......................... 13 4.2 Long-Distance Travel Research After the 1995 ATS and into the 2000s ...................... 17 4.3 Current Research: National Annual Models and “Big Data” ........................................ 31 5. A Framework for Moving Forward........................................................................................ 35 5.1 Considerations in Long-Distance Travel Definitions ..................................................... 35 5.2 From 50-miles to Overnight .......................................................................................... 36 5.3 Long-Distance Trip Purposes ........................................................................................ 41 5.4 Spatial Patterns in Long-Distance Travel ...................................................................... 47 6. Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 49 6.1 A Call for Multimodal National Long-Distance Travel Demand Models ....................... 49 6.2 Specific Variables and Data Needs ................................................................................ 50 6.3 Key Policy and Sustainability Research Questions ........................................................ 51 6.4 Including the Public ....................................................................................................... 52 6.5 The Bottom Line ............................................................................................................ 53 7. References ............................................................................................................................ 55 i List of Tables Table 1. Costs and Benefits of Long-Distance Travel ...................................................................... 7 Table 2. Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Long-Distance Trip Rates ........................................... 23 Table 3. Trips Greater than 50 miles One-way in Last 2 Months ................................................. 24 Table 4. Average & Standard Deviation of the Transfers Between Airport Pairs by Distance ..... 26 Table 5. FHWA Long-Distance Trip Purposes 1995 and 2015 ....................................................... 42 Table 6. Average Differences in Tour Attributes Based on Spatial Type ...................................... 48 ii List of Figures Figure 1. International and Domestic Air Revenue Passenger Miles.............................................. 3 Figure 2. Approximation of Long-Distance Travel over Time based on Rail, Air and Bus Modes .. 4 Figure 3. Approximation of Long-Distance Travel over Time in the United States ........................ 5 Figure 4. Proposed Relationship Between Long-Distance Travel and Well-being ....................... 12 Figure 5. Intercity Travel Choices in Context ................................................................................ 16 Figure 6. Details of the Modeling Framework .............................................................................. 17 Figure 7. Accessibility Between Origin and Destination for Air Versus Surface Transportation .. 26 Figure 8. Long-Distance Overnight Tour Frequency by Air (N=5,849 tours) ................................ 28 Figure 9. Number of People by Maximum Distance from Home in 2017 NHTS ........................... 37 Figure 10. Distance Distribution of Respondents at Least 50 Miles from Home on Travel Day (NHTS 2017) by State .................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 11. Relative Travel by Type for a Convenience Sample (N=628) ....................................... 40 Figure 12. Simplified Long-Distance Overnight Spatial Tour Types (H=home) ............................. 48 iii Incorporating Long-Distance Travel into Transportation Planning in the United States EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the early years of transportation planning and highway infrastructure development in the United States the focus was on intercity or long-distance travel, a contrast to the metropolitan travel and state-based models that dominate today. Daily home and work-based travel, which have been the focus of data collection and models since the 1950s, are well-modeled by regional agencies and a limited number of state travel demand models even include some long- distance travel. Nonetheless, long-distance travel demand and factors affecting behavior are not thoroughly considered in transportation planning or behavior research. Only one recent activity-based model of national travel demand has been created and its scope was limited by a severe lack of data. The conceptualization of models to consider intercity long-distance travel has changed little since its inception in the 1970s and 1980s. In order to comprehensively consider transportation system
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