The Deciders are Undecided Undecided voters, election campaigns, political media, and democracy in Australia Edwina Throsby A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Social Sciences Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences UNSW February 2018 Acknowledgements This thesis would not exist without the help and extraordinary generosity of Ariadne Vromen, Rob Hall, and Corin Throsby. Ariadne helped me to formulate and frame my thesis in its early stages, and has been a constant support and invaluable mentor throughout its development. Rob went far beyond the usual avuncular duties, to provide a tuition in statistical analysis which was fascinating, challenging, and fun. Corin turned her comprehensive intelligence and forensic editing skills onto the thesis at several crucial stages, and her thoughtful advice has lifted the work immeasurably. Also thanks to my supervisors Mark Rolfe, Paul Jones, and David McKnight, who at their points of stewardship throughout this process gave their knowledge, advice, and encouragement. Thanks also to the friends and colleagues who provided useful insights and feedback, especially Alastair Fraser, Andrea Carson, David Nolan, and Simon Jackman. And thanks to my personal support team: the many, many friends along the way who, with their company, wisdom, and friendship, continued to remind me that life is excellent. A special mention to my PhD comrades: Mariam, Emilie, Maia, Holi, Jac, and Faby, who shared and made bearable the special pain of this process in its final stages. And most especially and massively, thanks to my uniquely qualified and brilliant family: Corin, Colman Dervin, Robin Hughes, David Throsby, and my darling Niamh, for your support, wisdom, advice, humour, proof-reading, patience, delightfulness, and belief. This thesis is dedicated to you five, with eternal admiration, gratitude, and love. Reproduced with the kind permission of the cartoonist Table of Contents Chapter One: Introduction, research design, and method 1 Introduction Research design Method: Voter survey Method: Practitioner interviews Chapter Two: Undecided voters in the US and UK literature 17 Introduction Undecided voters as an essentially contested concept Ideals of undecided voters in the 19th and early 20th centuries The effect of mid-20th century mass voter surveys Alternative notions of undecided voters Undecided voters and fears for democracy Undecided voters in the 21st century Chapter Three: Undecided voters in Australia 49 Undecided voters in the Australian literature Undecided voters in Australian mass media Conclusion to Chapters Two and Three Chapter Four: Undecided voters: new ideas, new typologies 71 Introduction Hypotheses Background: the 2013 Australian federal election Establishing a typology of “voter groups” Demographics of voter groups Attitudes and behaviour of voter groups Media use among voter groups Further analysis of voter groups Discussion Conclusions Chapter Five: The role of undecided voters in Australian elections 117 Introduction A note on the literature Conceptions of undecided voters Types of undecided voters Busy voters Disaffected voters More sophisticated undecded voters The effect of undecided voters on policy Recognising context and diversity in a changing electorate Conclusion Chapter Six: Campaigning to undecided voters in Australian elections Introduction 141 Targeting undecided voters Messaging Leaders Polling, data collection, and microtargeting Focus Groups Doorkocking, canvassing and direct mail Advertising The role of instinct Conclusion Chapter Seven: Undecided voters in an evolving media environment 167 Introduction The mediatisation of politics Politics in an evolving media environment Media diversification and fragmentation The impact of multiple digital platforms on practitioners Audiences, voters and media consumption Social media and other online platforms Conclusion Chapter Eight: Reconsidering Political Media 201 Introduction Media malaise and hierarchies of media Entertainment and information media Soft news and political knowledge Comedy and satire Leadership, character and the role of emotion in politics Conclusion Chapter Nine: Undecided voters, citizenship and democracy 233 Introduction Contextualising narratives of democratic decline and crisis Changing ideas of citizenship and engagement Challenging norms of political engagement Online activism and political activity Challenging norms of political knowledge Voter disaffection, partisan dealignment, minor parties, and independents Australian citizens and civic duty Conclusion Chapter Ten: Conclusion 278 Beyond stereotypes, normative standards, and decline narratives Appendices 285 References 299 List of Tables and Figures Table 4.1: Voters in the 2013 Australian federal election by voter group Table 4.2: Voters in the 2013 Australian federal election: partisan and undecided Table 4.3: Commercial news watchers: voter groups Table 4.4: Commercial current affairs watchers: voter groups Table 4.5: ABC watchers: voter groups Table 4.6: SBS watchers: voter groups Table 4.7: 7.30, Four Corners and Q&A watchers: voter groups Table 4.8: 7.30, Four Corners and Q&A and ABC News watchers: voter groups Table B.1 Political practitioners: roles, parties and gender Table B.2 Media practitioners: roles, mediums, networks and gender Table C.1 Coding schema for the interviews with practitioners Table E.1 Australian free-to-air television networks Table E.2 Television programs included in the Voter Survey Figure 4.1: Regional distribution: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.2: Regional distribution: voter groups Figure 4.3: Educational distribution: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.4: Educational distribution: voter groups Figure 4.5: Gender distribution: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.6: Gender distribution: voter groups Figure 4.7: Age distribution: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.9: Interest in politics: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.10: Interest in politics: voter groups Figure 4.11: Talking about politics: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.12: Talking about politics: voter groups Figure 4.13: Compulsory voting: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.14: Compulsory voting: voter groups Figure 4.15: Learning about politics: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.16: Learning about politics: voter groups Figure 4.17: Knowledge, shadow treasurer: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.18: Knowledge, shadow treasurer, among voter groups Figure 4.19: Knowledge, environment policy: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.20: Knowledge, environment policy, among voter groups Figure 4.21: Main media source for politics: partisan and undecided voters Figure 4.22: Main media source for politics: voter groups Figure 4.23: No political programs watched: voter groups Figure 4.24: Use of social media; partisans and undecided voters Figure 4.25: Use of social media: voter groups Figure 4.26: Partitions of voter groups by dominant predictor variables: talking politics and age Figure 4.27: Partitions of voter groups by dominant predictor variables: talking politics, age, watch Q&A Figure 4.28: Lift Curve of voter groups by dominant predictor variables: talking politics, age, watch Q&A Figure 4.29: Clusters of television programs Chapter One Introduction, research design, and method The undecided voter is a figure of towering importance in Australian politics. Evoked by both political practitioners and media commentators as the cohort that can win or lose elections, these are the citizens that politicians ignore at their peril (Chaples 1997: 360; Cameron 1973: 275). They are the explicit targets of contemporary Australian election campaigns and yet, despite their influence, undecided voters are not well understood. This is especially true when considering the academic literature, in which – with some exceptions (Mayer 2008a; Milne and Mackenzie 1955; Zaller 2004; Dalton 2013) – undecided voters have not been deeply researched. This is also true in Australia, where scholars tend to deal with undecided voters as part of larger studies into elections, parties, or voters more generally (McAllister 2011: 101-105; Jaensch 1995: 135; Crisp 1965: 160). Despite the fact that “swinging voters”, as well as “undecided”, “floating”, “uncommitted”, “soft” or “target” voters are terms that are used frequently in public discourse and are given a range of meanings by scholars and political practitioners, these meanings are often contradictory. The terms used to describe these sorts of voters can pertain to voter attitudes (“undecided”, “uncommitted”); voter behaviour (“swinging”, “switching”, “floating”); or the relationship of a voter to a party (“independent”, “dealigned”, “soft”). Other terms, those usually favoured by practitioners, are instrumentalist, and refer to the relationship of the voter to the election campaign (“gettable”, “target”, “persuadable”).1 Popular conceptions of undecided voters tend to fall into two archetypes. One is of a free-minded citizen, who dutifully informs him or herself of civic structures, policies, political candidates and events, and makes a carefully reasoned decision free from the smear of partisan bias (Dole 1891: 127; Chapin 1912: 240; Bryce 1929: 48; Rosenblum 2008: 133). This archetype was more common before 1 The division of the definitions of undecided voters into groups pertaining to voter attitude, behaviour, relationship to party and relationship to election campaign was suggested by one of the examiners of this thesis.