1 2 Neotectonics and long-term seismicity in Europe and the 3 Mediterranean region 4 5 Michele M. C. Carafa (1), Salvatore Barba (2) and Peter Bird (3) 6 1 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – INGV, Sezione di Tettonofisica e 7 Sismologia, L’Aquila, Italy. Email:
[email protected] 8 2 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – INGV, Sezione di Tettonofisica e 9 Sismologia, Rome, Italy. Email:
[email protected] 10 3 Department of Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences, University of California, Los 11 Angeles, USA. Email:
[email protected] 12 13 Abstract 14 We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a 15 corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate 16 boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. 17 GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by 18 water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress-equilibrium equation; this 19 approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain 20 assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update 21 the existing plate model by adding five quasi-rigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, 22 Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of 23 the study area. We use the most recent datasets to estimate the lithospheric structure. 24 The models are evaluated in comparison with updated datasets of geodetic velocities 25 and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths.