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Geospatial Auto-Correlation Statistical Analysis to Evaluate the Seismic Magnitudes and Its Implications on the Mediterranean Coastal Zone of Egypt

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Geospatial Auto-Correlation Statistical Analysis to Evaluate the Seismic Magnitudes and Its Implications on the Mediterranean Coastal Zone of Egypt Physical Science International Journal 20(3): 1-15, 2018; Article no.PSIJ.46208 ISSN: 2348-0130 Geospatial Auto-correlation Statistical Analysis to Evaluate the Seismic Magnitudes and Its Implications on the Mediterranean Coastal Zone of Egypt Ali Amasha1*, Islam Abou El-Magd2 and Elham Ali3 1Arab Academy for Science, Technology & Maritime Transport, Complex, Block 1167, Off El-Moshir Ahmed Ismail St., P.O.Box 2033 – El-Horria, Cairo, Egypt. 2National authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, 23 Josef Tito St., El-Nozaha El-Gedida, P.O.Box 1564, Cairo, Egypt. 3Suez University, University Road, Suez, Egypt. Authors’ contributions This work was carried out in collaboration between all authors. Author AA has designed the study, performed and managed the statistical analysis, wrote the protocol, wrote the first draft of the manuscript and managed the submission to the journal. All authors AA, IAEM and EA have managed the literature searches, shared in writing the manuscript and read and approved the final manuscript. Article Information DOI: 10.9734/PSIJ/2018/46208 Editor(s): (1) Dr. David G. Yurth, Director of Science & Technology, The Nova Institute of Technology Holladay, Utah, USA. (2) Dr. Roberto Oscar Aquilano, School of Exact Science, National University of Rosario (UNR), Rosario, Physics Institute (IFIR)(CONICET-UNR), Argentina. Reviewers: (1) Agu Eensaar, Tallinn University of Applied Sciences, Estonia. (2) Jūratė Sužiedelytė Visockienė, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania. Complete Peer review History: http://www.sciencedomain.org/review-history/28142 Received 07 October 2018 Original Research Article Accepted 26 December 2018 Published 05 January 2019 ABSTRACT The northern coastal zone of Egypt (Mediterranean) is under the force of tension shear zones of African and European plates that generate earthquakes with variable magnitudes. We try to find a spatial relation between the collected seismic points and to evaluate how much these points affect and accelerate the frequencies of the high magnitudes’ earthquakes events. Geospatial and statistical analyses (e.g. ArcGIS tools) have used to analyze nearly 3083 earthquake records in the last 65 years in the Mediterranean basin in relation to the geo-tectonic shear zones. Nearly 85% of these earthquakes were in the marine. Aegean and Anatolia shear zones are the highest contributors of the earthquakes with nearly 43% and 42% respectively. Three results of the _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ *Corresponding author: E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]; Amasha et al.; PSIJ, 20(3): 1-15, 2018; Article no.PSIJ.46208 dominant geotectonic hazards were obtained. The first is that the majority of the hot spotted earthquakes are located at the Aegean Sea which enforcing the frequency and severity of earthquakes and tsunamis than that of Anatolia plate. The northward movement rate towards the African-Aegean plate is a bit lower due to the existing of the Mediterranean ridge and Strabo and Pliny trenches which resisting the African plate northward subduction. The second is that the subsidence rates and directions at the coastal Nile delta region is aligned to the rates and directions of the tectonic plates’ movements and the compaction rates of the deltaic sediments. The third is that the depths of the majority earthquakes epicenters (85%) were down to 40 km from the sea floor, one third of them were within the shallower 10 km depth. These results approve the frequencies of the severe earthquakes are potential based on the spatial statistical analysis. Therefore, the Egyptian coastal zone is vulnerability-marked where a lot of developmental activities were located. Keywords: Geospatial analysis; geo-tectonic hazards; coastal-zone; Nile-Delta; Egypt. 1. INTRODUCTION In the context local spatial autocorrelation indices, we used the geo-statistical tools to evaluate the Natural disasters cause significant financial spatial relations between the seismic point’s pressure, on government and individuals, with locations and their magnitudes’ values. The local short-term impacts and wider long-term analysis methods of local Getis–Ord Gi statistics development implications. Vulnerability to were used to evaluate spatial patterns of earthquakes hazards is shifting quickly, especially distribution of seismic magnitudes values by in developing countries with rapid population considering both their locations and associate growth, urbanization and socio-economic correlation values. This method uses a measure transformational changes. Coastal zones are known as the spatial autocorrelation coefficient to known to be the most vulnerable to natural and measure and test how observed locations are environmental hazards due to the physical clustered/dispersed in space with respect to characteristics of the high flood probability, the correlation values. The spatial autocorrelation at low topography, and the high sensitivity to the local scale, it is necessary to calculate local climatic changes, [1]. However, the deltaic autocorrelation indices like Getis–Ord Gi environment i s wealthy with natural resources statistics, [7]. that often support large populations, [2]. The Hot Spot Analysis by calculating Getis–Ord Earthquakes occur in the crust or upper mantle, Gi statistics was performed in order to obtain which ranges from the earth's surface to about more insight into how the stations with high and 800 kilometers deep (about 500 miles). However, low levels of calculated correlation coefficients shaking strength from an earthquake diminishes are clustered. A high positive Z-score of Gi with increasing distance from the earthquake's statistics appears when the spatial clustering is source, [3]. Depths of earthquakes can give us formed by similar but high values, the larger the Z important information about the Earth's structure score the more intense the clustering of high and the tectonic setting where the earthquakes values. If the spatial clustering is formed by low are occurring, [4]. Within continents, and along values, the Z-score will tend to be highly negative continental plate boundary transform faults, faults and the smaller the Z score is the more intense are only active in the shallow crust (i.e. to depths the clustering of low values. A Z-score around 0 of approximately 20 km). Globally, between indicates no apparent spatial association pattern, 1950-1999, earthquakes constituted 29% of [8]. great natural catastrophes, with 47% of the fatalities, 35% of economic losses and 18% of In addition, we used other geo-statistical module insured losses, [5]. of the ArcGIS to compare and approve the auto- correlated values. Anselin Moran’s I represents Whereas, the northern coastal zone of the measure of autocorrelation values that given Egypt is highly dynamic zone with various socio- in spatial context, [9]. Incremental Spatial economic activities and interventions, [6], the Autocorrelation (ISA), which uses Moran’s I delta is potentially subjected to natural hazards measure to test for spatial autocorrelation across including the earthquakes and probability of a series of distances throughout a study area, Tsunami. was conducted to determine the distance 2 Amasha et al.; PSIJ, 20(3): 1-15, 2018; Article no.PSIJ.46208 associated with peak clustering of vulnerability mapping on a national and sub- correlation between the analyzed seismic regional level. values. The value obtained from ISA was then used as distance threshold or radius for 2. STUDY AREA determining proximity weights for calculating Moran’s I, [10]. The spatial econometrician which The study area occupies the Egyptian northern estimating the spatial autocorrelation coast from Assalloum at the far west to Rafah at coefficient of regression method are usual the far-east and extends about 40 km southward approaches, [11]. from the coastline, with a total area of about 7700 km2. The area is marked by the Suez Canal at Therefore, this study primarily explores the the east by and the Sinai Peninsula, from the potentiality of the current and projected west by the western desert, from the south by risks of earthquakes. This research anticipates the rest of the agricultural land of the Nile delta providing baseline information of the expected and by the Mediterranean Sea from the north geotectonic hazards along the valuable hotspots (Fig. 1). It includes big cities along the coast such and highly sensitive northern coastal zone of as Matrouh and Alexandria to the west; Port Egypt (Mediterranean coast). Priorities will Saeid, Al Arish and Rafah to the East and in the include threats of, regional and national hazards middle there are Damietta, Ras Albar, Baltim and of earthquakes, geological structures and faults Rosetta cities. The study area governed by 8 and the susceptibility for catastrophic local governorates, which are; from the east to phenomenon such as tsunami. It is anticipated the west; north Sinai, Port Said, Al Dakahlia, that the outcomes of this research would 1) Damietta, Kafr El-Shiekh, El-Beheira, Alexandria, explore the relationships between the reported and Matrouh. The climatic condition of this area seismic points within the study area based on the is almost the climate of the Mediterranean Sea geo-statistical models, 2) enhance our with minimum temperature of 10˚ C in winter and understanding of the relationship between the maximum temperature of 40˚ C in summer. The tectonic plates sheer zones and the seismic area is
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