QUEENSLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPERT PANEL DRAFT REPORT Contents Contents

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QUEENSLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPERT PANEL DRAFT REPORT Contents Contents Credible pathways to a 50% renewable energy target for Queensland Draft Report, October 2016 Report of the Queensland Renewable Energy Expert Panel Queensland Renewable Energy Expert Panel Submissions close on 2 November 2016 Process for formal submissions on the Draft Report ► Online submissions www.QLDREpanel.com.au ► Mail submissions Project Manager – Queensland Renewable Energy Expert Panel PO Box 15456, City East Qld 4002 Confidentiality In the interests of transparency and to promote informed discussion, the Expert Panel would prefer submissions to be made publicly available wherever this is reasonable. However, if a person making a submission does not want that submission to be public, that person should claim confidentiality in respect of the document (or any part of the document). Claims for confidentiality should be clearly noted on the front page of the submission and the relevant sections of the submission should be marked as confidential, so that the remainder of the document can be made publicly available. It would also be appreciated if two copies of each version of these submissions (i.e. the complete version and another excising confidential information) could be provided. Where it is unclear why a submission has been marked “confidential”, the status of the submission will be discussed with the person making the submission. While the Expert Panel will endeavour to identify and protect material claimed as confidential as well as exempt information and information disclosure of which would be contrary to the public interest (within the meaning of the Right to Information Act 2009 (RTI)), it cannot guarantee that submissions will not be made publicly available. For more information, call the Department of Energy and Water Supply on 13 43 87. QUEENSLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPERT PANEL DRAFT REPORT Contents Contents Contents ............................................................................................................................................ 2 1. Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Summary of key themes ................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Overview of draft findings .............................................................................................. 4 1.3. Draft recommendations ................................................................................................. 9 1.4. Summary of key projected outcomes .......................................................................... 12 2. Basis of the public inquiry ...................................................................................................... 13 2.1. Role of the Expert Panel ............................................................................................... 13 2.2. The Panel’s approach ................................................................................................... 13 2.3. Report outline ............................................................................................................... 14 2.4. Next steps...................................................................................................................... 15 3. Queensland’s electricity sector, greenhouse gas emissions and the role of renewables .. 16 3.1. Electricity capacity and generation .............................................................................. 16 3.2. Forecasts of future demand ......................................................................................... 17 3.3. Climate change and Queensland greenhouse gas emissions ..................................... 18 3.4. Renewable energy industry.......................................................................................... 20 3.5. Major existing renewable energy support mechanisms ............................................ 23 4. Defining Queensland’s renewable energy target ................................................................. 28 4.1. Elements of the target .................................................................................................. 29 5. Leveraging existing Federal support schemes to 2020 ........................................................ 36 5.1. Small scale Renewable Energy Capacity ...................................................................... 37 5.2. Delivering the remaining requirements of the LRET .................................................. 38 5.3. Opportunity for Queensland to leverage the LRET ..................................................... 40 5.4. Considerations for running a Queensland-specific process prior to 2020 ................ 42 6. National energy and climate change policy post 2020 ........................................................ 47 6.1. 2030 emissions reduction targets ............................................................................... 47 6.2. Post 2030 emission reductions .................................................................................... 48 6.3. Emissions reduction from the electricity sector ......................................................... 49 6.4. Queensland’s role in influencing national policy ........................................................ 50 7. Queensland renewable energy policy options post 2020 ................................................... 52 7.1. Direct policy options ..................................................................................................... 53 7.2. Broader economic policy measures............................................................................. 59 8. Analysis of credible pathways to a 50% renewable energy target for Queensland ........... 62 8.1. Context of the analysis ................................................................................................. 63 8.2. Base case - market development without new Queensland policies ........................ 64 8.3. Renewable energy requirements under the target .................................................... 67 8.4. Technology cost assumptions ...................................................................................... 69 8.5. Outcomes of credible pathways .................................................................................. 70 8.6. Sensitivity pathway: Stronger National Action ............................................................ 79 9. Facilitating large scale renewable energy projects .............................................................. 82 9.1. Project development process ...................................................................................... 83 9.2. Options to facilitate renewable energy projects ........................................................ 86 10. Integration of renewables into the National Electricity Market .......................................... 93 10.1. Grid management with high penetrations of renewable generation ........................ 94 10.2. Options to enhance uptake of small scale renewable energy generation .............. 102 11. Supporting economic development .................................................................................... 106 11.1. Economic effects of renewable energy investment ................................................. 107 11.2. Opportunities to leverage future investment ........................................................... 111 QUEENSLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPERT PANEL DRAFT REPORT Contents 11.3. Supporting the transition of communities and industries........................................ 119 Glossary of key terms .................................................................................................................... 122 Appendix A: Expert Panel ............................................................................................................. 125 Appendix B: Terms of Reference .................................................................................................. 126 List of references ........................................................................................................................... 128 QUEENSLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPERT PANEL DRAFT REPORT Executive Summary 1. Executive Summary The Queensland Government has committed to investigating a renewable energy target for Queensland of 50% by 2030. To help deliver on this commitment, the Government has established the Renewable Energy Expert Panel to provide advice on credible pathways to achieving a 50% renewable energy target for Queensland by 2030. The policy seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change, as well as to create economic development opportunities in the state. Following the release of the Panel’s Issues Paper in May 2016, the Panel has undertaken a comprehensive public consultation process involving industry stakeholders, government, community organisations and individuals. This included: ► 4,630 people accessing the online portal, with 1,120 downloads of the Issues Paper ► 190 people attending the 8 public and industry forums conducted across the state ► Over 50 formal submissions on the Issues Paper ► Meetings with stakeholders in Queensland and interstate. During the consultation process there was a high level of interest in the proposed renewable energy target from the public and key stakeholders. A summary of public consultation outcomes, along with the written submissions received by the Panel, has been published alongside
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