Glencoe Social Studies Current Events Update SPRING 2008 Great Programs Available from Glencoe:
π3 Journey Across Time π3 Civics Today: Citizenship, Economics, and You π3 Journey Across Time: Early Ages π3 The American Vision π3 Exploring Our World: People, Places, and Cultures π3 The American Vision: Modern Times π3 World Geography and Cultures π3 Exploring Our World: Eastern Hemisphere π3 Glencoe World History π3 Exploring Our World: π3 Glencoe World History: Modern Times Western Hemisphere, Europe, and Russia π3 Economics: Principles and Practices
π3 The American Journey π3 Economics: Today and Tomorrow π3 Street Law π3 The American Journey: Early Years π3 United States Government: Democracy in Action π3 The American Journey: Modern Times π3 Understanding Psychology π3 Sociology and You
Time Learning Ventures is proud to partner with Glencoe/McGraw-Hill to create this Social Studies Current Events Update. To subscribe to Time Magazine and get free access to more than 80 years of historic and engaging archival Time content, call 1-800-843-Time or visit www.time.com/customerservice Glencoe Social Studie s Current Events Update n a t i o n campaign 2008 Does Experience Matter in a President?...... 2 Changing the Script...... 4 He’s Got Game...... 6 Ready To Rumble...... 8
- WORKSHEET: Analyzing the Issues...... 10 national service A Time To Serve...... 11 environment The Fire This Time...... 14 Inside a Wildfire...... 16
w o r l d afghanistan The Girl Gap...... 18 global business When Eat Meets West...... 20 archaeology Who Owns History?...... 22 global warming Fight for the Top of the World...... 24 Redrawing the Map...... 26
- WORKSHEET: Interpreting Maps and Graphics...... 28 middle east A Taste of Liberty In Troubled Gaza...... 29
s o c i e t y , s p o r t s a n d b u s i n e ss society Is Facebook Overrated?...... 30 sports Young Athletes, Big Injuries...... 32 Sparking a Protest...... 33 business Bracing for a Recession...... 34
- WORKSHEET: Current Events in Review...... 36 Answers...... 37
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By DAVID VON DREHLE two candidates. The fact that this hasn’t stopped Obama’s momentum doesn’t mean he’s heard the last of it—not story is often told at times like this—times with John McCain, who has spent 26 years on Capitol when American voters are choosing among can- Hill and is the likely Republican nominee. “I’m not the didates richly seasoned with political experience youngest candidate. But I am the most experienced,” A and those who are less experienced but perhaps says McCain. “I know how the world works.” more exciting alternatives. Once upon a time, the torch Obama’s credentials would be an issue in any elec- was passed to a new generation of Americans, and a tion year. He would be sworn in at age 47, making him charismatic young President, gifted as a speechmaker one of the youngest Presidents in history, and would but little tested as an executive, was finding his way arrive in the Oval Office with less executive experience through his first 100 days. On Day 85, he stumbled, and than most of his predecessors. Depending on what your the result for John F. Kennedy was the disastrous Bay of leanings are, you could compare his work history— Pigs. For scholars of the presidency, Kennedy’s failure lawyer, state legislator, Washington short-timer, orator— to scuttle or fix the ill-conceived invasion of Cuba is a to Abraham Lincoln’s, or to a thousand forgotten figures classic case of the insufficiency of charisma alone. in politicalgraveyard.com. The question of experience Barack Obama basks in comparisons to J.F.K., but takes on added bite this year, though, because the next this is one he’d rather avoid. Obama’s rela- A NEW EXPERIENCE THE EXPERIENCE PARADOX NO OTHER EXPERIENCE THE CANDIDATES’ Presidential The founders set a high bar for Abraham Lincoln, among the least EXPERIENCE A lack of political experience can EXPERIENCE tively light political experience when lling the diverse experienced Presidents ever, served Chester A. be misleading. Dwight D. All three are bucking a recent Résumés. Arthur, trend of former governors résumé—eight years jobs needed to create a new between two of the most veteran a Eisenhower had never won an How 43 men nation. George Washington was politicians in U.S. history. Lincoln achieved patronage hire elected o ce but was the becoming President. John as an Illinois legisla- a national hero but the least politically greatness; the old pros failed miserably and party loyalist, found ultimate Commander in Chief. Woodrow Wilson was McCain would be the got the job— experienced among them himself picked for Vice president of Princeton University and a renowned longest-serving Senator to tor and three years in President at a splintered intellectual. Both Theodore Roosevelt and Franklin become President. Hillary ready or not Republican Convention. Roosevelt each served as Assistant Secretary of the Navy Clinton points to her time in the U.S. Senate—con- Then James Gar eld was the White House as First Lady. Throughout U.S. history, there assassinated. Surprisingly, Barack Obama is in his rst tinues to be the focus has been little correlation Arthur dedicated himself to Senate term between political experience civil-service reform and was and success as President. This a successful President of his rivals’ attacks. chart shows the political résumés of every American Hillary Clinton adver- President. Each square tises her seven years represents a year in an elective or high federal o ce before the Eight years as First Lady person became President: Years in the Senate and two in o ce Vice President 15 terms as First Lady, Four years as U.S. diplomat or Cabinet post President saying “I am ready U.S. Senate U.S. House of Representatives* 10 to lead on Day One.” Governor State legislature** And the message has Local office 5 gotten through: by Army general George WashingtonJohn AdamsThomasJames Je erson MadisonJames MonroeJohn QuincyAndrew Adams MartinJackson VanWilliam BurenJohn Henry Tyler HarrisonJames K.Zachary Polk Millard Taylor FillmoreFranklinJames Pierce BuchananAbrahamAndrew LincolnUlysses Johnson S.Rutherford GrantJames B. Hayes Gar eld Chester A.Grover Arthur ClevelandBenjaminGrover Harrison ClevelandWilliam McKinleyTheodoreWilliam Roosevelt H.Woodrow Taft Warren Wilson CalvinG. Harding CoolidgeHerbert FranklinHooverHarry D. Roosevelt S TrumanDwight D.John Eisenhower F. LyndonKennedy RichardB. Johnson GeraldNixon FordJimmy CarterRonald ReaganGeorge H.W.Bill Clinton BushGeorge W. BushJohn McCainHillary ClintonBarack Obama clear margins, voters *Includes the Continental Congresses **Includes colonial-era state assemblies and rate her as the more statewide elected o ces below governor experienced of the
time, march 10, 2008 campaign 2 0 0 8
President will inherit a troubled and menacing satchel training, background, spiritual outlook and a host of of problems. From the Iraq tightrope to the stumbling other factors,” says presidential historian Richard Norton economy, from the China challenge to the health-care Smith. “Character is your magic word, it seems to mess, from loose nukes to oil dependence to (some me—not just what they’ve done but how they’ve done things never change) Cuba policy—the next President it and what they’ve learned from doing it.” will be tossed a couple dozen flaming torches at the end Was it Franklin Roosevelt’s experience as gov- of the inaugural parade, and it would be helpful to know ernor of New York that gave him the power to that this person has juggled before. inspire in some of the nation’s darkest hours? Or was But if one moral of the Bay of Pigs is “Beware of cha- that gift a distillate of his dauntless battle with polio? risma” or “Timeworn trumps inexperience,” what do All of life offers lessons in how to lead, inspire and we make of the mistakes and miscalculations of deeply endure. Richard Nixon served as a Congressman, experienced leaders? Franklin D. Roosevelt’s failed Senator and Vice President; he watched from the front court-packing scheme, for example, or Woodrow Wilson’s row as Eisenhower assembled one of the best-organized postwar foreign policy? For that matter, Kennedy would administrations in history. When Nixon’s turn came, not have faced such a harsh early tutorial if the vener- though, his core character—insecure, insincere, con- able warrior and statesman Dwight D. Eisenhower had spiratorial—led him to create a White House doomed not allowed the Cuba-invasion plan to be put in motion by its own dysfunction. Experience, in other words, gets during the last of his eight years as President. its value from the person who has it. Wouldn’t it be nice if time on the job and tickets When Americans pass over the best-credentialed punched translated neatly into superior performance? candidates because their heart or their gut leads them Then finding great Presidents would be a simple matter elsewhere, they are only reflecting a visceral understand- of weighing résumés. But it has never worked that way, ing that the presidency involves tests unlike all others. which is why Lincoln’s statue occupies a marble temple They are, perhaps, seeking the ineffable quality the writer on the Mall in Washington, while his far more experi- Katherine Anne Porter had in mind when she defined enced rival William Seward has a little seat on a pedestal experience as “the truth that finally overtakes you.” An in New York City. “Experience never exists in isolation; ideal President is both ruthless and compassionate, it is always a factor that coexists with temperament, visionary and pragmatic, cunning and honest, patient and bold, combin-
A NEW EXPERIENCE THE EXPERIENCE PARADOX NO OTHER EXPERIENCE THE CANDIDATES’ ing the eloquence of Presidential The founders set a high bar for Abraham Lincoln, among the least EXPERIENCE A lack of political experience can EXPERIENCE experience when lling the diverse experienced Presidents ever, served Chester A. be misleading. Dwight D. All three are bucking a recent a psalmist with the Résumés. Arthur, trend of former governors jobs needed to create a new between two of the most veteran a Eisenhower had never won an timing of a jungle How 43 men nation. George Washington was politicians in U.S. history. Lincoln achieved patronage hire elected o ce but was the becoming President. John a national hero but the least politically greatness; the old pros failed miserably and party loyalist, found ultimate Commander in Chief. Woodrow Wilson was McCain would be the cat. Not exactly the got the job— experienced among them himself picked for Vice president of Princeton University and a renowned longest-serving Senator to President at a splintered intellectual. Both Theodore Roosevelt and Franklin become President. Hillary sort of data you can ready or not Republican Convention. Roosevelt each served as Assistant Secretary of the Navy Clinton points to her time in Then James Gar eld was the White House as First Lady. find on a résumé. π Throughout U.S. history, there assassinated. Surprisingly, Barack Obama is in his rst has been little correlation Arthur dedicated himself to Senate term between political experience civil-service reform and was and success as President. This a successful President chart shows the political Questions résumés of every American 1. President. Each square What factors represents a year in an elective argue in favor of or high federal o ce before the Eight years as First Lady person became President: Years in o ce electing a President Vice President 15 Four years as with extensive U.S. diplomat or Cabinet post President U.S. Senate experience? U.S. House of Representatives* 10 Governor 2. What are some State legislature** Local office 5 counter-arguments Army general against the belief George WashingtonJohn AdamsThomasJames Je erson MadisonJames MonroeJohn QuincyAndrew Adams MartinJackson VanWilliam BurenJohn Henry Tyler HarrisonJames K.Zachary Polk Millard Taylor FillmoreFranklinJames Pierce BuchananAbrahamAndrew LincolnUlysses Johnson S.Rutherford GrantJames B. Hayes Gar eld Chester A.Grover Arthur ClevelandBenjaminGrover Harrison ClevelandWilliam McKinleyTheodoreWilliam Roosevelt H.Woodrow Taft Warren Wilson CalvinG. Harding CoolidgeHerbert FranklinHooverHarry D. Roosevelt S TrumanDwight D.John Eisenhower F. LyndonKennedy RichardB. Johnson GeraldNixon FordJimmy CarterRonald ReaganGeorge H.W.Bill Clinton BushGeorge W. BushJohn McCainHillary ClintonBarack Obama *Includes the Continental Congresses that a strong Pres- **Includes colonial-era state assemblies and statewide elected o ces below governor ident must be experienced?
time, march 10, 2008 campaign 2 0 0 8 Changing the Script His independence, a liability in the GOP primaries, may be his biggest strength in November. How John McCain plans to win
By MICHAEL SCHERER he often admits, a superstitious fellow who depends on talismans ever mind all those for good luck—the penny he carries maps of red and blue in his pocket or that rubber band America, a nation polar- strapped around his left wrist. ized between Democrat Throughout the campaign, and Republican, city McCain has been busy attempting Nand country, with entire elections to convince his party and its teetering on the last-minute deci- conservative base that he is not to sions of a few Ohio soccer moms. be feared. Witness his endorsement Forget what you know about the road show: Mitt Romney in Boston, inaccessible general-election George H.W. Bush in Houston and candidate, hidden behind layers a bunch of big-name Republican of Secret Service and stage-man- representatives in Washington. aged pomp. Scratch those notions These are the moves of a man still of a Republican Party that sidles speaking to his party’s base. up to pharmaceutical companies In recent days, McCain met and oil giants, never ruffling the with his advisers at his ranch, near paymasters’ feathers. ≤We’ll be competing Sedona, Arizona, to plot a strategy With much of the attention that will keep alive what the focused on the unprecedented everywhere, campaign sees as its magic: the face- photo finish of a woman and including the state to-face charm that reinvigorated an African American in the the 71-year-old candidate after his Democratic primaries, it’s easy of California.≥ campaign imploded last summer. to underestimate how much a It is a strategy calling for more bus Republican challenger could —John McCain tours and large group discussions change the political playing field. with voters. It also calls for a If John McCain has his way in the coming campaign, concerted effort to court voters outside the Republican the party of Ronald Reagan will shift its priorities on base—a Barack Obama-like gambit that is already key domestic issues ranging from global warming to seeping into McCain’s public rhetoric. the cheap importation of prescription drugs. Despite “I will not confine myself to the comfort of speaking the pressures of a national campaign, the candidate only to those who agree with me,” he said after winning will remain open to the public and press, continuing the Virginia, Maryland and District of Columbia the regular town halls and reporter gabfests, often in primaries. “I will make my case to all the people.” traditionally Democratic bastions. And the campaign Nearly a week later, he was even more direct about his will attempt to make inroads with independent voters aims: “We’ll be competing everywhere, including the in states that the electoral map has long counted as state of California.” beyond Republican reach. McCain plans to bring new cards to the table—his Does this sound too good to be true? McCain is, as unconventional campaign style combined with a set of
time, march 3, 2008 campaign 2 0 0 8 issues that appeal to the political center. He wants to dares describe the sometimes maverick McCain as regulate greenhouse gases. He opposes drilling for oil a maverick. in the Arctic, voted to fund stem-cell research and has At the heart of the coming debate with Democrats is a history of fighting against the corrosive influence of the war in Iraq, for which McCain is the nation’s most money in politics. He initially voted against the Bush public proponent outside the White House. Democrats, tax cuts, which he now supports, saying at the time including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, hope to that they “mostly benefit the wealthy.” To this day, focus the debate on the past, on the mistakes that have he does not favor an absolute repeal of the estate tax. been made and the cost in blood and treasure, which Despite a full-blown rebellion most Americans disapprove of. in the Republican grass roots, McCain, on the other hand, is he remains committed to determined to focus the debate providing a path to citizenship on what to do next, about which for most illegal immigrants in TIME POLL the Democratic candidates have the U.S. remained remarkably vague “We always thought that if How McCain Matches Up beyond saying they want to he could survive a primary, promptly begin a drawdown in If the general election were being held he would be a phenomenal today between John McCain (R) and Barack forces. “I believe I can convince general-election candidate,” Obama (D), for whom would you vote? the American people that after says John Weaver, McCain’s nearly four years of mishandling onetime political strategist, Obama 48% | McCain 41% of the war, that we’re now who broke with the campaign doing the right thing and we’re last summer. “The Democrats If the general election were being held succeeding,” McCain told abc’s today between John McCain (R) and Hillary will be on the defensive if John Clinton (D), for whom would you vote? George Stephanopoulos. runs the kind of campaign that But far more than on the I know he wants to run.” Clinton 46% | McCain 46% issues, McCain’s fortunes will The Democratic Party and depend on his ability to preserve its allies, of course, see the his aura of independence danger that lies ahead. Despite This TIME poll was conducted Feb. 1–4 among 958 and his enthusiasm for the randomly selected registered voters, including people who an enormous enthusiasm were leaning toward a particular candidate. The margin of campaign trail. For him, the advantage that Democrats have error is ±3 percentage points. lessons of his campaign’s enjoyed for a year, national collapse and rebirth could not head-to-head polls show Obama with only a single- be clearer. If his personality gets lost in the process, digit lead over McCain; McCain and Clinton are tied. as it did last spring, he is done. But if he can run as More important, McCain retains a favorable rating, an individual, unafraid of jousting with reporters and according to USA Today/Gallup, that stands a full 13 voters, he may find he’s rewarded not just in votes points ahead of the Republican Party. Those close to but in his own satisfaction. “I love it,” he often says him see a real shot at picking up longtime blue states on of campaigning. His close friend and adviser South the West Coast (Oregon and Washington), the Midwest Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham puts it a different (Minnesota and Wisconsin) and New England (Maine way. “The hard part,” Graham says, “will be getting him and Connecticut). to stop campaigning.” π So the Democratic Party has begun flooding reporters with a series of “myth buster” e-mails arguing Questions that McCain is “pandering to the right wing,” “walking 1. How does John McCain hope to convince voters in lockstep with President Bush” and “embracing outside the Republican Party to support him in the the ideology he once denounced.” At the same time, 2008 election? the liberal advocacy group Media Matters has been 2. What do Democrats anticipate will be the heart of releasing broadsides against any journalist who the debate between them and McCain?
time, march 3, 2008 campaign 2 0 0 8 He’s Got Game The challenger has managed to dislodge the idea of Hillary Clinton’s inevitability. Now Obama promises to push back even harder
By NANCY GIBBS domestic. In her mockery of Obama for his pretty speeches and ot long after michelle airy promises, Clinton’s subtext Robinson started getting was always clear: you may like the serious about the tall, music, but this guy is nowhere near skinny law student she tough enough for this job. It was a was dating, she asked her charge made explicit by the Red Nbrother Craig, a former basketball Phone ad, whose very existence star at Princeton and now the head testified to her own toughness: I’m coach at Brown, to hoop it up with prepared to do anything, including him, one on one. “She had heard hand John McCain a grenade, to our father and me talk about how win this thing. She played on the you can tell a lot about a person’s guilty conscience of the national personality based on how they press corps, recasting herself as play,” says Craig, recalling his the vilified victim and Obama as first game against Barack Obama. the bubble-wrapped ingenue. “Especially when they’re tired.” But you don’t rise in Chicago The two men played then and have played whenever politics or come this far this fast in a national race possible ever since. Especially on primary days, when by being soft, naive or scared of a fight. What has campaigns go silent until the results come in, Obama distinguished Obama in this campaign is how hard he slips away to a gym—though it tells you something has battled without appearing to do so. The message that about him that he usually doesn’t let anyone watch. On moves the crowds at his rallies is made possible by many Tuesday, March 4, Team Obama found the Concord layers of calculation underneath. His mild manner belies Athletic Club near the San Antonio airport, where he fierce self-control. The frequent self-mocking conceals played five on five with aides and his Secret Service a stubborn self-confidence. He not only plays hard; he detail. He is captain, coach and referee all at once, plays to win, rubs it in sometimes if he does and takes signaling teammates to set up plays. A lefty, Obama losses hard. “He is,” says a friend who has known his keeps opponents off balance: fake right, then go left with share of strivers, “one of the most competitive people a very quick crossover dribble and a finish to the basket I’ve ever met.” with his left hand. His instinct is to play opponents If Obama’s history is any guide, losses tend to speed very close—though nowadays, says Craig Robinson, him up, not slow him down. As an Illinois state senator in “everybody’s being real careful not to give him a fat lip or 2000, he took on the Cook County machine to challenge something that would show up when he’s on TV.” After a a sitting four-term Congressman and lost—a pre-emptive couple of hours, having won three of four games, Obama strike against the political establishment and a cocky wanted to keep playing. “Every once in a while,” he says, signal that he wasn’t going to wait his turn. smiling, “this 46-year-old body pulls out some moves.” In his memoir, Obama recalls a tactic he learned as a But as he was tapping into his inner 19-year-old, black teenager in a white world. “People were satisfied Hillary Clinton was winning three states out of four so long as you were courteous and smiled and made on the charge that Obama just wasn’t man enough no sudden moves,” he writes. “They were more than to protect the country from its enemies, foreign and satisfied; they were relieved—such a pleasant surprise
time, march 17, 2008 campaign 2 0 0 8 to find a well-mannered young black man who didn’t Obama was born in America but raised on its outer seem angry all the time.” boundaries, neither white nor black but both. He’s But as the Obama campaign unfolded in 2007, the famed for his oratory, but watching him speak, you charge wasn’t that he was too angry but that he wasn’t suspect he leaves about 30% of the emotion on the angry enough. His party’s more inflamed activists table. He repeats one mantra to his staff over and over wanted a candidate who would burn bridges, not build during the insane days and nights of the campaign: them. If primaries are about winning the base, Obama’s “Stay cool. Stay focused. Don’t get distracted.” accommodating approach could Obama’s instincts are often liberal not have been more out of tune, if you look at his votes and his plans, and by last summer, he looked as if ≤We have a chance but he is careful not to sound like a he might fizzle. Come September, to bring the country liberal. His stump speech is dotted he was trailing Clinton by about 2 with the Morse code of the middle— to 1 in most surveys. together in a assurances that he understands what To the pros, the fix was obvious: it is about liberalism that makes “All of the experienced hands gave new majority…≥ nonliberals nervous. “We have a the same advice: ‘You gotta get chance to bring the country together down, get dirty, get tough,’” said —Barack Obama in a new majority to finally tackle one, who echoed them too. But problems that George Bush made Obama pushed back, more willing to fight his advisers far worse but that had festered long before George Bush than to fight his opponents. A heated showdown in ever took office,” he declares. He talks about the need to Chicago, attended by a core group of only half a dozen pay for better teachers but also about the responsibility or so, took place over Labor Day weekend. “But he of parents. He can be for “sensible” gun control, like wouldn’t do it,” says one of the attendees. “Against the reinstating the assault-weapons ban, but he can also advice, against the history ... It shows he understood his tell Idaho voters, “I’ve got no intention of taking away persona and the qualities that were implicit in it.” And people’s guns.” He says he’s against school vouchers but he understood what he stood to lose if he changed his would consider anything that is proven to help kids. His game. “If I gotta kneecap her,” he told them, “I’m not promises of more money for college are often tied to gonna go there.” mandatory national service. This wasn’t decency or chivalry at work; it was an Whatever the drawbacks of this long and brutal understanding that the rationale for his campaign would campaign season, Obama believes the exercise is a good fade if he became just another grubby politician —or an one for picking a President. “Ultimately, the process angry black man. reveals aspects of an individual’s character and judgment. The politics of hope brought him a long way— If you think about past Presidents, probably those two including a first-place finish in the Iowa caucuses—but things, along with vision, are the most important aspects the calculations have changed. Obama will continue to of a presidency,” he says. “Do you know where you want tie Clinton to McCain and other Republicans for voting to take the country? Do you have the judgment to figure for the Iraq war and liken her experience to that of out what’s important and what’s not? Do you have the Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney. “I’m going to be character to withstand trials and tribulations and to interested in finding out what exactly she thinks makes bounce back from setbacks?” In the coming weeks, voters her particularly well prepared, for example, on foreign will form their own answers to all those questions. π policy,” he told Time on Wednesday. When her aides are asked, he notes, they cite, of all things, a speech, Questions the one she gave on human rights in China in 1995. 1. How did experts advise Obama to counter “Has she negotiated any treaties? When she traveled to Clinton’s 2-to-1 lead in early polls? How did Obama these 80 countries, was she involved in policymaking? respond? If so, what? My suspicion is that you’re not going to get 2. What three attributes does Obama consider most a bunch of particularly impressive answers.” important in a President?
time, march 17, 2008 campaign 2 0 0 8 Ready To Rumble Hillary Clinton has rescued her campaign by getting a lot rougher on Barack Obama. But Democrats worry: How much collateral damage will be done?
By KAREN TUMULTY and her charge that the first-term Illinois DAVID VON DREHLE Senator would be unprepared in a national-security crisis, Clinton hen it comes to went so far as to compare him politics, the Clinton unfavorably with John McCain, the philosophy is simple: presumptive Republican nominee. It’s war, and wars are “I have a lifetime of experience I for winning. Bill put will bring to the White House. I Wit this way, back in 1981: “When know Senator McCain has a lifetime someone is beating you over the of experience he will bring to the head with a hammer, don’t sit White House,” she told reporters there and take it. Take out a meat the morning before the contests. cleaver and cut off their hand.” “And Senator Obama has a speech With her presidential hopes at he made in 2002”—a reference to stake in Texas and Ohio, Hillary Obama’s declaration against the Clinton reached for the cleaver. Her Iraq invasion that she and McCain campaign made good on its promise had voted to authorize. Obama to throw “the kitchen sink” at Barack Obama, and that has repeatedly referred to that speech as proof that his paid off with clear popular-vote victories in both states. judgment is superior, even if his résumé is shorter. What’s more, she said, “I’m just getting warmed up.” At the same time, the Clinton campaign stepped up Even for some of her supporters, those are ominous its attacks on the media, insisting that Obama has been words. Democrats now face a reality they were hoping receiving kid-glove treatment. The theme sank into the they might avoid: a knock-down, drag-out struggle broad public consciousness when Saturday Night Live between two strong candidates lasting at least seven returned from the writers’ strike to make a recurring more weeks and possibly all the way to the convention. theme of the fawning press. For the party that was assumed to have the advantage After years of battling the scandal machine that in November against a G.O.P. that was unpopular Hillary Clinton once called the “vast right-wing and torn apart by infighting, this turnabout is both conspiracy,” she and her inner circle feel well prepared depressing and distressing. for this sort of fight. Students of the Clintons’ long career Four days before the March 4 primaries, Clinton have noted that they do better in a scrape. Combat went up with a chilling and provocative advertisement brings them to the balls of their feet; by contrast, they juxtaposing images of slumbering children with the tend to spring leaks on calm seas. Clinton’s successful urgent ringing of the national-security hotline in the attacks broke Obama’s 12-win streak that had buoyed White House. “It’s 3 a.m. and your children are safe him through a month of victories, and her advisers and asleep,” the announcer says. “Who do you want now feel they have put a stick in the spokes of his answering the phone?” momentum. “They thought they could kill us,” a Clinton For months, the Democratic candidates, including campaign official crowed as the Ohio and Texas results Clinton, devoutly observed that any of them would be a were coming in. “They know time is their enemy; time better President than another Republican. But in leveling is our friend.”
time, march 17, 2008 campaign 2 0 0 8
That’s bold talk and could be true, though even help to fill what has been a weakness in comparison to inhabitants of the Amazonian jungle have probably Obama’s operation. If these factors once again add up concluded by now that the only certain thing in this to a big-state win, Clinton’s team is sure to argue to the race is uncertainty. If you look at a four-month graph superdelegates that only she has the toughness necessary of the campaign, you will see that up to now, time to survive the fall campaign and that Obama can’t land has been very, very good to Obama. He has turned a the knockout punch. For a party still regretting the glass- 20-plus-point deficit in the national polls into a dead heat, jawed vulnerability of its 2004 nominee, John Kerry, this spoiled Clinton’s plans to wrap things up by February argument will likely pack some selling power. 5 and ground his way through 43 Neither campaign releases its primaries and caucuses to build a internal tallies of superdelegates, lead in pledged convention delegates ≤I have a lifetime but since Super Tuesday, Obama that appears virtually impossible to has been cutting into Clinton’s close. As impressive as her wins in of experience once formidable lead. The latest Ohio and Texas were, Clinton made I will bring to estimate by CNN suggests her edge up little ground in the delegate is now only 238 to 199. “When count, where she now trails 1,186 to the White House.≥ you look at the numbers, this is a 1,321, according to CNN. fistfight,” says a Clinton strategist. It is hard to come up with a —Hillary Clinton “It is going to be a much more scenario in which either candidate rugged fight, because her lifeline can amass the 2,025 delegates needed to win without is these uncommitted delegates, and they can be shaky relying upon so-called superdelegates. These are the sometimes.” Obama’s team continues to push the case roughly 800 party leaders and elected officials who are that the supers ought to follow the lead of the pledged automatically delegates to the party convention this delegates for the sake of party unity. summer in Denver, and they are free to support whichever Like the people who are running her bid for the candidate they wish. In a sense, the Pennsylvania primary, White House, Clinton is a pragmatist. “During this to be held on April 22, will be aimed directly at impressing campaign, you’re going to hear me talk a lot about the them. Obama will get another chance to beat Clinton importance of balance,” she told voters in Iowa. “You when all the chips are in the pot. For Clinton, it is another know, our politics can get a little imbalanced sometimes. chance to demonstrate her appeal to the core Democratic We move off to the left or off to the right, but eventually constituencies that have favored her in this campaign: we find our way back to the center because Americans women, older voters, Hispanics and households earning are problem solvers. We are not ideologues. Most people under $50,000. are just looking for sensible, commonsense solutions.” Her strategists argue that the general election will be a It is precisely this sense of balance that some say close-fought contest that may come down to Florida and Clinton has lost. “The Clinton campaign strategy Ohio, two states where the Clinton coalition has been is simply going to be to try to run a scorched-earth strong—or, alternatively, to a cluster of smaller states that campaign,” says Obama campaign manager David includes Arkansas, New Mexico and Nevada. In most of Plouffe. “Which would be catastrophic for the party.” those states, they say, Clinton’s supporters will matter It all comes down to one thing, as Hillary Clinton made more than Obama’s appeal among upscale voters and clear in her last press conference before the Tuesday African Americans. They are, in other words, willing to primaries: “Winning. Winning. Winning. Winning. That’s admit that her hard-fought primary campaign could cost my measurement of success,” she said. “Winning.” π the party African-American votes in November. Clinton officials note that the political terrain in Questions Pennsylvania is, like Ohio’s, abundant with downscale 1. What are superdelegates and what role do they voters who are feeling an economic pinch. And as in play in the nominating process? Ohio, she has the support of the Democratic governor 2. To what core Democratic constituencies does and can draw on his ground organization, which can Hillary Clinton have strong appeal?
time, march 17, 2008 Name Date worksheet- among Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Barack Obama in their approach to the key issues currently facing Americans. Use the Analyzing worksheet below to take a closer look at where the candidates stand on these issues. To answer the questions on this worksheet, you may find it useful to supplement the articles in the Current the Issues Events Update with information from the As the articles on Campaign 2008 on pages candidates’ websites (urls are listed below). If you 2 through 9 make clear, there are significant need additional space for your answers, use the differences—and some striking similarities— back of this sheet or another piece of paper.
Hillary Clinton John McCain Barack Obama www.hillaryclinton.com www.johnmccain.com www.barackobama.com 1. Read through this candidate’s speeches and select one quote that you feel captures his or her political philosophy.
2. What are the key points in this candidate’s approach to addressing America’s healthcare crisis?
3. Did this candidate support the decision to go to war in Iraq? 4. What is this candidate’s stance on ending the war in Iraq? 5. Does this candidate favor caps on industrial emissions of global-warming gases?
6. Now choose an issue you are particularly interested in and compare the candidates’ positions. Name your issue here:
(If you need more space for your answers, please use the back of this page.)
10 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures national service A Time To Serve In a changing society facing all manner of new challenges, volunteers are helping bind America together. Why the U.S. and the next President should make a new commitment to national service
By RICHARD STENGEL explanation is pretty simple. People, especially young people, think the government and the public sphere As the Constitutional Convention of 1787 came to a are broken, but they feel they can personally make a close, after three and a half months of deliberation, a difference through community service. lady asked Dr. Franklin, “Well, Doctor, what have we Another reality the founders could not have possibly got, a republic or a monarchy?” “A republic,” replied the foreseen was that a country that originally enslaved Doctor, “if you can keep it.” African Americans would be a majority non-white nation —Anecdote from The Records of the by 2050. Robert Putnam, the famed Harvard political Federal Convention of 1787 scientist who wrote about the decline of civic engagement in Bowling Alone, recently released a new study that republic, if you can keep it. the founders showed the more diverse a community is, the less people were not at all optimistic about the future of care about and engage with that community. Diversity, the Republic. There had been only a handful in fact, seems to breed distrust and disengagement. of other republics in all of human history, and The study lands in the midst of an intense immigration most were small and far away. The founders’ debate, but even if all immigration were to cease Apessimism, though, came not from history but from tomorrow, we would still be diverse whether we liked their knowledge of human nature. A republic, to it or not. Yet the course of American history, Putnam survive, needed not only the consent of the governed writes, has always given way to “more encompassing but also their active participation. identities” that create a “more It was not a machine that would larger sense of ‘we.’” go of itself; free societies do not Best and Worst But at this moment in our stay free without the involvement States with the BEST Volunteer Rates: history, 220 years after the of their citizens. Utah...... 45.9% Constitutional Convention, the Today the two central acts of way to get citizens involved in civic democratic citizenship are voting Nebraska...... 42.4% life, the way to create a common and paying taxes. That’s basically Minnesota...... 40.4% culture that will make a virtue it. The last time we demanded Alaska...... 38.8% of our diversity, the way to give anything else from people was Kansas...... 38.3% us that more capacious sense of before the draft ended in 1973. “we”—finally, the way to keep the Polls show that while confidence Republic—is universal national in our democracy and our States with the WORST Volunteer Rates: service. No, not mandatory or government is near an all-time Nevada...... 17.5% compulsory service but service that low, volunteerism and civic New York...... 20.1% is in our enlightened self-interest participation since the 1970s as a nation. are near all-time highs. Political Louisiana...... 21.2% In 2006 more than 61 mil- scientists are perplexed about this. Florida...... 21.8% lion Americans dedicated 8.1 If confidence is so low, why would Mississippi...... 24.2% billion hours to volunteerism. people bother volunteering? The The nation’s volunteer rate has
time, september 10, 2007 11 national service increased by more than 6 percent- Expand Existing Programs age points since 1989. Overall, Spotlight on Service Since 1994, 500,000 people 27% of Americans engage in civic 3have gone through Ameri- life by volunteering. Dr. Franklin Are there students at your school or in Corps programs tutoring and would be impressed. The service your community who are volunteering teaching in urban schools; manag- movement itself began to take off and giving back in remarkable ways? ing after-school programs; clean- in the 1980s, and today there is Go to timeforkids.com/service to ing up playgrounds, schools and a renaissance of dynamic altruis- nominate them for recognition in Time parks; and caring for the elderly. tic organizations in the U.S., from For Kids’ “Spotlight on Service” series. AmeriCorps members earn a Teach for America to City Year to Each month through May, one of these small stipend for their volunteer- Senior Corps, many of them under outstanding youth service projects will ing and receive education awards the umbrella of AmeriCorps. be featured in Time For Kids magazine. of up to $4,725 per year. But So what would a plan for under this national-service pro- universal national service look like? It would be voluntary, posal, the program would more than triple in size, from not mandatory. Americans don’t like to be told what they 75,000 members each year to approximately 250,000. have to do; many have argued that requiring service drains the gift of its virtue. It would be based on carrots, not sticks Create an Education Corps —“doing well by doing good,” as Benjamin Franklin, the The idea here is to create a group of tutors, true father of civic engagement, put it. The ideas here are 4teachers and volunteers who can help the a mixture of suggestions already made, revised versions 38% of fourth-graders who can’t read at a basic of other proposals and a few new concepts: level. The members of the Education Corps would also lead after-school programs for the 14 million stu- Create a National-Service Baby Bond dents—a quarter of all school-age kids—who do not Every time an American baby is born, the Fed- have a supervised activity between 3 and 6 p.m. on 1 eral Government would invest $5,000 in that child’s schooldays. Studies show that students who spend name in a 529-type fund — the kind many Americans are no time in after-school programs are almost 50% already using for college savings. At a rate of return of more likely to have used drugs and 37% more likely to 7% — the historic return for equities — that money would become teen parents than students who spend one to total roughly $19,000 by the time that baby reaches age four hours a week in an extracurricular activity. 20. That money could be accessed between the ages of 18 and 25 on one condition: that he or she commits to at Institute a Summer of Service least one year of national or military service. For many teenagers, the summer between middle 5school and high school is an awkward time. Shirley Make National Service a Cabinet-Level Department Sagawa, an architect of the AmeriCorps legislation, is Right now, the Corporation for National and proposing a Summer of Service. One hundred thou- 2 Community Service—created in 1993 to manage sand students would volunteer for organizations like City AmeriCorps, Senior Corps and Learn and Serve America— Year, a national volunteering program and think tank, or is a small, independent federal agency. Find a catchier Citizen Schools, which organizes after-school activities for name, streamline its responsibilities and bring it up to middle schoolers, and run summer programs for younger Cabinet level. students in exchange for a $500 college scholarship. At this moment in our history, 220 years after the Constitutional Convention, the way to get citizens involved in civic life is universal national service.
12 time, september 10, 2007 national service
Build a Health Corps The idea is to provide a focused education There are nearly 7 million American Time Spent for people who will serve in the public sec- 6 children who are eligible for but not tor—either the federal, state or local govern- enrolled in government-sponsored health- In 2006, 61.2 ment—and thereby create a new generation insurance programs. Health Corps volun- million Americans of civic leaders. Asch and Raymond were teers would assist the mostly low-income dedicated so dismayed by the government’s response families of children in accessing available to Katrina that they wanted to create a new public insurance offerings like the Children’s generation of people who were idealistic Health Insurance Program. These volun- 8.1 about government. teers could also act as nonmedical support billion hours to staff such as caseworkers and community volunteerism Create a Baby-Boomer education specialists in underserved rural Education Bond health clinics—which have less than three-quarters of the 10Just as AmeriCorps members nonmedical staffing they need, according to Voices for receive scholarships, baby-boomer volunteers would be National Service, a coalition of service organizations that able to designate a scholarship of $1,000 for every 500 advocates expanding federal service programs. hours of community service they complete. The $1,000 would be deposited into an education savings account Launch a Green Corps or a 529 fund to be used by the volunteer’s children or This would be a combination of F.D.R.’s Civilian grandchildren or a student they designate. 7 Conservation Corps—which put 3 million “boys So how much would all this cost? There are about in the woods” to build the foundation of our modern 4 million babies born each year, and if each receives a park system—and a group that would improve national $5,000 baby bond, that would be about $20 billion a infrastructure and combat climate change. The Green year; that is, roughly two months of funding for the Iraq Corps could reclaim polluted streams and blighted war and about half what the government spends per year urban lots; repair and rehabilitate railroad lines, ports, on the federal prison system. The government would get schools and hospitals; and build energy-efficient green $1 billion in dividends from the investment and would housing for elderly and low-income people. be able to cash in the bonds that people don’t use. At the same time, corporate America would need to play a criti- Recruit a Rapid-Response Reserve Corps cal role in a plan for universal national service. The disarray and lack of a coordinated response to Between 1944 and 1956, 8 million returning veterans 89/11 and Katrina tell us there is a role volunteers can received debt-free education, low-interest mortgages plan in responding quickly to disasters and emergencies. or small-business loans. The GI Bill helped assimilate The new Rapid-Response Corps would consist of retired those young men into a new postwar society and helped military and National Guard personnel as well as national- turn America into a middle-class nation. A new GI Bill and community-service program alumni to focus on disas- for national service involving men and women, young ter preparedness and immediate response to local and na- and old, could help secure America for the future and tional disasters. The program would initially train 50,000 turn every new generation into a Greatest Generation. members, who could be deployed for two-week periods The courageous souls who signed the Declaration of in response to emergencies and serve under the guidance Independence pledged “our Lives, our Fortunes and of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. our sacred Honor.” The least we can do to keep the Republic is to pledge a little time. π Start a National-Service Academy Conceived by two former Teach for America corps Questions 9members, Chris Myers Asch and Shawn Raymond, 1. What are the two central acts of democratic the U.S. Public Service Academy would give under- citizenship today? graduates a four-year education in exchange for a five- 2. Why are more young people volunteering at year commitment to public service after they graduate. present than in the 1970s, 1980s or 1990s?
time, september 10, 2007 13 environment The Fire This Time Fierce winds and years of drought put the torch to hundreds of square miles in California and displace nearly a million people. How we got here and what—if anything—we can do to prevent conflagrations like this in the future
By BRYAN WALSH quickly burst into life throughout a dry, hot landscape. By midweek, he santa ana winds more than 20 separate blazes begin cold, gathering formed pockets of fire running power and mass in the from the Mexican border north to high desert between Las Simi Valley outside Los Angeles. In Vegas and Los Angeles. many places, the heat and smoke TAir pressure pushes the winds were so intense that the 7,000 up and over the San Gabriel firefighters recruited from around Mountains, westward toward the the country could do little but Pacific Ocean, until gravity takes watch. The flames consumed more hold. The air becomes compressed than 400,000 acres, destroyed as it drops, growing hotter and more than 2,000 houses and dryer, stripping moisture from the forced the temporary evacuation ground, accelerating—sometimes of nearly 1 million people—the past 100 miles per hour as it biggest mass migration in the U.S. squeezes through Southern since Hurricane Katrina, and far California’s many canyons. more than were evacuated during the 2003 San Diego The punishing gusts of the Santa Anas herald cursed wildfires, previously considered California’s worst. weather, days and nights of devilish heat. Should a fire In San Diego County, site of the worst fires, people spark in the dry woodlands surrounding the region’s spent a few minutes gathering some mementos before cities and suburbs, the winds become a flamethrower, abandoning their houses ahead of the flames, seeking spreading glowing embers half a mile or more. The Santa refuge with relatives or friends or even in Qualcomm Anas have been midwife to the most destructive wildfires Stadium, which went from being the home of the San in California’s history, from the Great Fire of 1889 to the Diego Chargers to a temporary shelter for more than 2003 disaster that blackened nearly 700,000 acres of 20,000 refugees—stirring worrisome memories of the forest. Lifelong residents of the state know the Santa Anas tens of thousands who swarmed to the Superdome and dread them. As Joan Didion has written, “The wind in New Orleans two years ago. Hotels filled quickly, shows us how close to the edge we are.” highways jammed and grocery-store shelves ran bare. In later October, the people of Southern California Some residents learned of the danger through television came close to reaching that edge. “We’re in a state of coverage of the fire. The images of the flames they shock right now,” says Dr. Zab Mosenifar, director of couldn’t yet see out their windows but knew were on the the Cedars-Sinai Women’s Guild Pulmonary Disease march only added to an atmosphere of terror. “Everyone Institute in Los Angeles, who was preparing for an is running around scared,” said Dr. Sanjana Chaturvedi, influx of smoke-inhalation victims at his hospital. “This a San Diego resident who fled her home with her is beyond thinking.” Beginning overnight on October husband and two children. “No one knows what to do. 20, unusually fierce Santa Ana winds stoked fires that There is no place to go. I have no place to go.”
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Often the flames moved faster than the residents. When on the shrinking borderlands between edge suburbs and Jay Blankenbeckler went to bed the night of October 21 at untouched wilderness. More than 8.6 million Western his home in Rancho Bernardo, he could see smoke, but homes have been built within 30 miles of national forest the fire still seemed far away. Upon awakening early the since 1982; in California, where the population has more next morning and turning on the TV, he saw a newscaster than tripled since 1950, in excess of 50% of new housing reporting in front of a blaze— one that was less than half a has been built in a severe-fire zone. mile from Blankenbeckler’s house. “It had already burned Then, too, there’s climate change. As occurred after through an entire neighborhood,” he says. “That’s when I Hurricane Katrina, the question of what role global thought, ‘This is real.’ ” warming might have played in the disaster arose before the fires had even begun to die down. While environmental scientists are The Government Steps In The flames consumed careful not to blame the droughts State and federal officials did their or heat waves of any one season on best to calm the anxiety of refu- more than 400,000 climate change, the overwhelming gees and of people who, at least for acres, destroyed majority of climate models point to the time being, were still in their more of these extreme conditions homes. California Governor Ar- more than 2,000 in the already dry Southwest as nold Schwarzenegger was in full the planet warms. A study led by action-hero mode, traveling to the houses and forced the researchers at the Scripps Institution firefighters’ front lines, while Presi- evacuation of nearly of Oceanography in La Jolla, dent George W. Bush—chastened California, and published in Science by Washington’s late response one million people last year found that as temperatures to Katrina—declared the region increased in the West, which is now a “major disaster” and prompt- 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than ly dispatched Homeland Security Secretary it was in 1987, so did the length of the wildfire season and Michael Chertoff, along with Army helicopters, troops the size and duration of the average fire. and millions of dollars in federal aid. San Diego city officials even implemented a reverse 911 system with automated warning calls going to residents, urging them Raising the Risk to evacuate. This early and aggressive emptying of the Even when we try to be smart about fires, we often just region—a hard-earned lesson of the 2003 fires, which left make things worse. For more than a century, the U.S. 20 people dead—likely saved Californians’ lives, if not Forest Service—the federal agency responsible for com- their property. “The issue this time is not preparedness,” bating wildfires—has pursued a policy of stamping out said San Diego City Council president Scott Peters. “It’s blazes wherever they occur and doing so all the more that the event is so overwhelming.” aggressively as population grows in the endangered The question is, why? Fires have always been with regions. For those accustomed to living in urban areas, us and are one way nature cleans house, burning off that makes sense—the job of a city fire department is to dry vegetation and opening up old ground for new stop blazes before they damage property. But that’s not growth. So why have these natural events become how things work in the great Western forests. Paradoxi- natural disasters? Why do there seem to be more of cally, trying to put out every minor blaze may raise the them, and when they do strike, why are they ever more risk for the occasional megafire since the forests are catastrophic? not permitted to do their important work of occasion- Part of the reason Southern California has become such ally clearing out accumulated vegetation. This is a little a dangerous place to live is that it’s such an attractive place like letting newspapers pile up in your kitchen: If a fire to live. The migration of people drawn to the West by the occurs, the place is primed to blow. region’s mountains, forests and proximity to the ocean The situation was worsened by a relatively wet winter in has led to more and more new residents building houses 2004–05, which let trees and scrub grow densely, followed
time, november 5, 2007 15 environment Inside a Wildfire.Once sparked, these blazes ÄajË?Ë8awÁj±Ë#WjËĬ?Ája^ ÍjÄjËM?ãjÄËWÁj?ÍjËÍjÁËÝËaß?W±create their own dynamic. Add hot wind, aaËÍËÝa^Ë?aËaÄ?ÄÍjÁËÄËjÜÍ?Mjand disaster is inevitable
#8Ë0 :Ë.0-0 Wildfires result from a confluence of fuel, dryness #8Ë0 :Ë.+- and some kind of trigger. Once a fire is burning, a This convection system Each factor contributes to the ¤ Ï -jÍ?Áa?ÍËNitrogen-heavy severity of the blaze column of smoke and creates and strengthens fertilizer mixed with water heat can rise for miles in the gale-force winds that can propel can coat fuel and prevent atmosphere. The rising air blowing embers as burning. Iron oxide in the creates a void below much as half a retardant gives it its orange color mile (0.8 km)
Blowing embers allow the fire to jump natural barriers Fresh air such as rivers Ô and valleys Fuel means flammable rushes in, solids—grass, pine bringing more needles, undergrowth, oxygen to fuel smaller trees and, the flames unfortunately, houses— that, with oxygen, feed #8Ë0#Ë0Ë0 the fire A fire dies when it is deprived of fuel, heat or oxygen. The main strategy for fighting wildfires is containment: N Helicopters N Firefighters N Controlled and tanker clear areas of fires are planes drop fuel that sometimes set retardants to would allow to deny fuel to slow the the fire to an 8 ! Ë flames spread approaching Dryness can be caused by blaze short-term weather patterns with low humidity or by a lengthy drought. In California the Santa Ana winds help parch the landscape
Triggers can be as natural as a lightning strike, as innocent as a campfire or as sinister as an arsonist TOP TO BOTTOM: HOWARD LIPIN — SAN DIEGO UNION TRIBUNE/ZUMA; FRED GREAVES — REUTERS; K.C. ALFRED SAN DIEGO UNION TRIBUNE/ZUMA LIPIN — SAN DIEGO UNION TRIBUNE/ZUMA; FRED GREAVES TOP TO BOTTOM: HOWARD
PROTECTED FUEL SOIL INSULATION TORNADO WINDS UPHILL BATTLE WHY SO BAD IN CALIFORNIA? Decades of fighting every forest fire Soil is an excellent insulator In rare cases, erratic winds Wildfires charge rapidly up Weather is the primary force that drives or have left many areas dangerously full that can protect tree roots within a wildfire create mountainsides because the contains wildfires. Southern California has an of fuel—sticks, fallen timber and from a fire’s heat, permitting powerful minitornadoes that heat from the fire rises and is extra, very powerful ingredient: unusually brush. Add rampant development and regrowth to begin quickly. But can shoot spirals of flame directed at the fuel uphill, strong seasonal winds—the Santa Anas— drought, and there’s little hope of a charred landscape is into the air and twist trees drying it out before the roaring through mountains and valleys containing a fire quickly vulnerable to erosion apart at their trunks flames arrive packed with homes
16 time, november 5, 2007 environment
by extremely dry weather since, which turned the vegetation to still more fuel. In fact, this past year has seen the worst drought in Los ÄajË?Ë8awÁj±Ë#WjËĬ?Ája^ Angeles’ recorded history. Adding to the tinder were those Santa Ana winds, which strike ÍjÄjËM?ãjÄËWÁj?ÍjËÍjÁËÝËaß?W± regularly in the autumn but rarely with the power that they had in October. “They usually aaËÍËÝa^Ë?aËaÄ?ÄÍjÁËÄËjÜÍ?Mj come in small, medium and large,” says Bill Patzert, a climatologist with #8Ë0 :Ë.0-0 nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory Wildfires result from a in Pasadena, Calif. “These were confluence of fuel, dryness #8Ë0 :Ë.+- and some kind of trigger. Once a fire is burning, a This convection system Godzilla winds.” Each factor contributes to the ¤ Ï -jÍ?Áa?ÍËNitrogen-heavy severity of the blaze column of smoke and creates and strengthens fertilizer mixed with water heat can rise for miles in the gale-force winds that can propel can coat fuel and prevent atmosphere. The rising air blowing embers as burning. Iron oxide in the creates a void below much as half a retardant gives it its orange color The Outlook mile (0.8 km) Does all this mean that the only way to stop Blowing embers allow the fire to jump the cycle of catastrophic forest fires is to natural barriers change the way Americans live in the West? Fresh air such as rivers Ô and valleys Fuel means flammable rushes in, Probably—but the transition will be pain- solids—grass, pine bringing more ful. Population growth in the affected areas needles, undergrowth, oxygen to fuel smaller trees and, the flames has implicitly been supported by federal unfortunately, houses— policies that protect private homes even if #8Ë0#Ë0Ë0 that, with oxygen, feed they’re built in risky areas. This, in turn, the fire A fire dies when it is deprived of fuel, heat or oxygen. The main strategy for has caused the Forest Service—which is fighting wildfires is containment: supposed to perform a range of wilderness N Helicopters N Firefighters N Controlled functions—to become largely a firefight- and tanker clear areas of fires are planes drop fuel that sometimes set ing agency, devoting nearly half its budget retardants to would allow to deny fuel to slow the the fire to an to that one job. That has caught the eye 8 ! Ë flames spread approaching of Congress, which wants spending to be Dryness can be caused by blaze short-term weather patterns brought under control. with low humidity or by a The loss in recent years of several fire- lengthy drought. In California the Santa Ana winds help fighters who died protecting homes has fur- parch the landscape ther caused Washington to rethink its poli- cies. “So much development in California has followed the pioneering spirit,” says Jon Keeley, a research ecologist with the U.S. Geographical Survey. “But we’re reaching critical limits in growth, and people have to
Triggers can be as natural realize that they will lose certain freedoms as a lightning strike, as if they want to be safe.” π innocent as a campfire or as sinister as an arsonist
TOP TO BOTTOM: HOWARD LIPIN — SAN DIEGO UNION TRIBUNE/ZUMA; FRED GREAVES — REUTERS; K.C. ALFRED SAN DIEGO UNION TRIBUNE/ZUMA LIPIN — SAN DIEGO UNION TRIBUNE/ZUMA; FRED GREAVES TOP TO BOTTOM: HOWARD Questions
PROTECTED FUEL SOIL INSULATION TORNADO WINDS UPHILL BATTLE WHY SO BAD IN CALIFORNIA? 1. What makes the Santa Ana winds a Decades of fighting every forest fire Soil is an excellent insulator In rare cases, erratic winds Wildfires charge rapidly up Weather is the primary force that drives or major factor in the spread and severity of have left many areas dangerously full that can protect tree roots within a wildfire create mountainsides because the contains wildfires. Southern California has an of fuel—sticks, fallen timber and from a fire’s heat, permitting powerful minitornadoes that heat from the fire rises and is extra, very powerful ingredient: unusually wildfires in Southern California? brush. Add rampant development and regrowth to begin quickly. But can shoot spirals of flame directed at the fuel uphill, strong seasonal winds—the Santa Anas— 2. Why is it not smart to tamp out every drought, and there’s little hope of a charred landscape is into the air and twist trees drying it out before the roaring through mountains and valleys containing a fire quickly vulnerable to erosion apart at their trunks flames arrive packed with homes little fire that crops up?
time, november 5, 2007 17 afghanistan The Girl Gap Six years after the fall of the Taliban, the girls of Afghanistan are still fighting for an education. Here’s what they need to get ahead in school
By ARYN BAKER / Karokh District, Herat the seats in parliament, and they are legally allowed to find jobs outside the home. Foreign donors and othing gives principal suraya sarwary nongovernmental organizations have expended a great more pleasure than the sound of her second- deal of energy and capital on building women’s centers grade girls reciting a new lesson out loud. Six and conducting gender-awareness workshops. But years ago, that sound could have gotten her more than six years since the fall of the Taliban, fewer executed. The Taliban had outlawed education than 30% of eligible girls are enrolled in schools, and Nfor girls, but a few brave teachers the infrastructure is so poor that taught them in secret. Sarwary, now More than six years only a tiny fraction are likely to get the principal of Karokh District the education they need to enjoy Girls High School in Afghanistan’s since the fall of the fruits of emancipation. Herat province, recalls gathering The stakes for Afghan society are students secretly in her home and the Taliban, fewer high. Every social and economic imparting lessons in whispers for index shows that countries with fear that her neighbors might report than 30% of eligible a higher percentage of women her to the Taliban. girls are enrolled with a high school education Karokh District Girls High School also have better overall health, a is one of the most successful in Herat. in schools. more functional democracy and And in terms of girls’ education, increased economic performance. Herat is the most successful province in Afghanistan. There’s another payoff that is especially important to Even so, conditions are far from ideal. Sarwary’s tiny Afghanistan: educated women are a strong defense school doesn’t have enough classrooms: second-graders against the extremism that still plagues Afghanistan, huddle in a ragged tent in the courtyard, where a torn underscored by the January 14 bombing of a luxury strip of khaki canvas hangs between rusting metal struts, hotel in Kabul, which killed eight. “Education is the blocking many of the girls’ view of the blackboard. The factory that turns animals into human beings,” says fierce desert wind howls through the holes and threatens Ghulam Hazrat Tanha, Herat’s director of education. to tear the class’s one textbook from the students’ hands “If women are educated, that means their children will as they pass it around for reading lessons. There is no be too. If the people of the world want to solve the hard playground or running water. The toilet, a pit latrine problems in Afghanistan—kidnapping, beheadings, located at the far corner of the school compound, serves crime and even al-Qaeda—they should invest in [our] 1,500 students. Only two of the 23 female teachers have education.” graduated from high school. Half the second-grade For girls in much of the country, education remains students, ranging in age from 7 to 12, can read; the rest a dream no more attainable now than it was under just recite from memory. the Taliban. In the past six years, 3,500 new schools The shaky status of girls’ education belies one of the have been built across the country, but fewer than greatest hopes raised when the Taliban was toppled by half of them have buildings. Most are in tents, in the U.S.-led forces in 2001: the liberation of Afghanistan’s shade of trees or wherever open space can be made women. Yes, they can now vote, they have a quarter of available. This has a direct bearing on the number of
18 time, january 28, 2008 afghanistan SWEDEN girls enrolled: most Afghan families won’t allow their While struggling to build the new infrastructure, daughters to be where they may be seen by men. “Girls educators must also contend with Afghanistan’s old in this society have certain needs,” says Education demons: the Taliban is making a comeback in several Minister Hanif Atmar. “They cannot be in a tented provinces and reimposing its rules. In little over a year, 130 R USSIA FINLAND school or in an open space with no sanitation facilities, schools have been burned, 105 students and teachers killed so they simply do not go.” Competing demands for and 307 schools closed down because of security concerns. government money and more obvious problems such as Many of those schools were for girls, and most of them were NORWAY a raging insurgency, poppy cultivation and widespread in the southern provinces, where a Taliban-driven insur- corruption leave education to nibble from the crumbs. gency has made it nearly impossible to secure the schools. Though Atmar has a five-year plan to improve education And in June 2007, two gunmen on a motorcycle shot dead in Afghanistan, he can’t find enough money for his most three female students coming out of high school in the pressing needs. He got only $282 million this year, $216 central province of Logar, a 1 1⁄2-hour drive from Kabul. ESTONIA million short of his bare-bones operating budget. But if Afghanistan has any reason for hope, it is the The first step to take in helping educate more girls, sheer determination of the girls who do have a chance says Atmar, is to remove all other obstacles to girls’ to go to school. Lida Ahmadyar, 12, whose sister was one DENMARK LATVIA going to school. That means constructing new buildings of the girls killed in the Logar shooting, has started going LITHUANIA so classes aren’t held in the open. In the meantime, back to school. Every day she walks past the spot where unconventional inducements can help. In a successful her sister died, but she clings to her dream of becoming a program in some rural areas, girls are given a free doctor. “I am afraid,” she says. “But I like school because I NETH. POLAND BYELARUS ration of oil and flour at the end of every month. This am learning something, and that will make me important. encourages their poor families to keep sending them With education, I can save my country.” If enough of GERMANY to school. Increasing teachers’ salaries would convince Afghanistan’s girls get the chance, they may do just that. π BELGIUM more parents that their daughters should take up the LUX. CZECH profession. Teachers with high school diplomas earn Questions SLOVAKIA UKRAINE $50 to $75 a month, a tiny return on investment for 1. What are some ways in which a higher rate of families whose daughters could be spending those 12 high-school education for women benefits society? AUSTRIA HUNGARY MOLDOVA SWITZ. years at home weaving carpets, tending the fields or 2. Why is having a school housed in a tent or in the MONGOLIA SLOVENIA ROMANIA taking care of the household. open under a tree a problem for girls in Afghanistan? FRANCE ITALY CROATIA BOSNIA SERBIA KAZAKHSTAN BULGARIA MONTENEGRO GEORGIA UZBEKISTAN MACEDONIA KYRGYZSTAN
ALBANIA AZERBAIJAN NORTH KOREA GREECE TURKMENISTAN SPAIN TURKEY TAJIKISTAN CHINA SOUTH KOREA TUNISIA CYPRUS SYRIA LEBANON IRAQ AfghanistanAfghanistan MOROCCO ISRAEL IRA N JORDAN
ALGERIA KUWAIT NEPAL PA K IST AN SAUDI BHUTAN EGYPT LIBYA ARABIA QATAR INDIA
U. A. E. time, january 28, 2008 19 MYANMAR LAOS BANGLADESH OMAN ERITREA YEMEN THAILAND CHAD
SUDAN KAMPUCHEA DJIBOUTI SOMALIA SRI LANKA CENTRAL AFRICAN ETHIOPIA REPUBLIC global business When Eat Meets West Can a Kentucky fast-food company bring Chinese food to China— and tacos to Mexico? Call it to the “glocalization” of cuisine
By LISA TAKEUCHI CULLEN years ago, Colonel Sanders was losing the global fast- food war to the Golden Arches. PepsiCo had spread its ith its chinese lettering and unre- restaurant division too thin, planting capital-consuming, markable name, the fast-food outlet in a company-owned-and-operated stores in 32 countries Shanghai shopping mall looks like many instead of franchising them as it does in the U.S. others selling local fare. East Dawning is A decade ago, stores overseas brought in less than crowded with customers on this winter 20% of profits; today it’s 50%. In 2006 the company Wevening, and they’re sampling a menu that includes earned $824 million in net income on total revenue of pork fried rice, marinated egg and $9.6 billion. plum juice. Stanley Yao, a restaura- kfc and Pizza Hut restaurants teur from Hong Kong who is opening ≤I asked, ‘What’s now number more than 12,000 in a sushi joint nearby, dines here once the hamburger in 110 countries outside China, says a month. The food is “a little too oily,” Graham Allan, president of Yum he says, but he likes the soy-milk China? Obviously, its Restaurants International (yri). And drinks, and “the prices, of course, then there’s China, where Yum is are very reasonable.” (A meal of Chinese food.’≥ so big that it has reported earnings noodles, tea and custard dessert —David Novak, separately since 2005. Profits from costs $4.) With eight storefronts ceo of Yum Brands Yum’s restaurants in China, Thailand around Shanghai, East Dawning and Taiwan popped 37% in 2006, could soon give China’s biggest fast feeder, kfc, a run while all other international profits grew 11%, domestic for its money. Good thing for them they’re playing on a mere 3%. A kfc opened nearly every day in China the same team. last year, and kfcs and Pizza Huts now number more Starbucks has the gall to sling its lattes for coffee than 2,300. (McDonald’s has about 1,000 restaurants, connoisseurs in Vienna, and Budweiser peddles its not that Yum keeps track.) Sam Su, who runs Yum brew in Belgium. So why shouldn’t Yum Brands—the in China, projects 20,000 stores someday. “We’re Louisville, Kentucky-based company that owns kfc, nowhere close to saturation at all,” he says. “The sky Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and more—sell dumplings in a is the limit.” fast-growing market where Chinese food is just called As millions of Chinese find their wealth swelling and food? Yum’s iconoclastic ceo, David Novak, likens it to their time shrinking, sit-down meals involving several how Ray Kroc of McDonald’s brought hamburgers to generations no longer fit the needs of a hurried and America. “I asked, What’s the hamburger in China?” harried middle class. “The lifestyle is changing,” says He says, “Obviously, it’s Chinese food.” Except Kroc Su. “People are getting more urbanized and busy, with was an American selling American food to Americans. less time to cook at home.” kfc’s grab-and-go menu Is this brilliant, or is Novak half-Kroc-ed? items were a novel solution, while Pizza Hut launched Since it was spun off from PepsiCo in 1997, Yum the concept of eating out at a casual restaurant with has radically transformed its overseas business. With the whole family. kfc opened its first drive-through in Americans stuffed on fast-food options and domestic 2002 just as China was becoming a car-owning culture. sales growth a skinny 2% annually, companies like Yum In 2001 Pizza Hut Home Service began introducing the must go global to give Wall Street what it craves. Ten idea of hot meals delivered to the door. That concept
20 time, january 28, 2008 global business may seem ironic to Americans, for whom Chinese food diet for many cultures. “When you offer high-calorie is the ultimate delivery meal. food to a thin population, they go from small to large Pizza and fried chicken are tasty treats, but they’re very quickly and begin to develop signs of heart dis- not staples in China like, say, noodles and dumplings— ease, diabetes and high blood pressure at much lower and that’s where Yum thinks it can really score. And weights,” says Marion Nestle, a New York University if a Yank selling egg rolls to the Chinese seems a bit professor and the author of Food Politics. “You can ex- impractical, then Novak, 55, is the right man for the pect to see these problems in India and China in very job. The ceo of Yum since 2000, he’s a plain-talking, short order.” cheerleading executive who boasts of never having For its part, Yum argues that it’s not exporting fatty attended business school. He’s given to goofy team- foods so much as offering tasty options to the global building tactics like passing out rubber chickens (and public. “The answer to the nutrition issue is balance $100) to kfc managers whose stores are performing and exercise,” says Novak, pointing to a basketball well. A former $7,200-a-year advertising copywriter, tournament sponsored by kfc in China and a menu Novak took his marketing chops to PepsiCo in 1987. there that includes healthier alternatives like roasted Though he suffered his biggest failure there—Crystal chicken. In fact, the roasted menu items are such a hit Pepsi, which he still contends was the right idea in China that Yum executives are testing them out in at the wrong time—he was handed the reins to the the U.S. It’s an interesting twist: Yum is looking to the kfc and Pizza Hut units in 1996. He chronicled a soaring international business to expand its appeal at childhood spent in 32 trailer parks and an otherwise home. What about bringing its Chinese-food chain to unconventional path to the corner office in a 2007 book the U.S.? “Now that,” says Novak, “would be a Class titled The Education of an Accidental ceo. A opportunity.” To put it another way, that’s thinking This time, Novak’s idea might be the right one at the outside the sticky bun. π right time. The menus at East Dawning restaurants don’t offer overtly American fare but still attract Chinese Questions consumers because of the quality and service associated 1. Why is China’s middle class now finding fast food with an American brand. The formula developed by outlets appealing? Yum’s other banners overseas—cheap food delivered 2. What are some drawbacks to covering China with in cheerful surroundings—has provided a welcome fast-food outlets? mat for the company. Diner Frank Li, a project engineer on a trip from Suzhou, says the restaurant’s link to kfc and Pizza Hut is a draw, not a drawback. “Those places Quick service are good quality,” he says. East Dawning’s menu features “You know what you’re going to get. They are a very local favorites on the cheap: professional company that must know what it’s doing, Sweet-and-sour pork ribs...... 19 yuan ($2.60) and I think the quality here Fried eel...... 20 yuan ($2.75) shows that.” Ground meat and chicken wings.....19 yuan ($2.60) The success of Yum in Spicy beef with noodles...... 20 yuan ($2.75) China hasn’t come without some controversy, however. Crispy wok-fried chicken...... 19 yuan ($2.60) Fast foods—even those that mimic local cuisines—rep- resent a dramatic change in
time, january 28, 2008 21 archaeology Who Owns History? Nations want their looted art returned. Great museums want to keep the treasures they have amassed. Is there a right way to divide the past?
By RICHARD LACAYO cutoff year varies from one nation to the next—and make it a crime to export such material without a wo years ago, francesco rutelli, newly permit. A 1970 unesco convention has given those laws appointed as Italy’s Culture Minister, embarked force in the courts of other nations, like the U.S., that on a campaign to demand the return of dozens have accepted it. Cultural-property claims by foreign of objects held by U.S. museums, ancient works nations are also enforceable in the U.S. under the that he said had been looted from archaeological ordinary law governing stolen property. Tdigs in his country and smuggled out. In the months Unsurprisingly, having endured the Rutelli cam- that followed, one museum after paign, even museums that may another went through something have once played fast and loose like the Elisabeth Kübler-Ross stages “Source nations” like have tightened their practices. But of accepting death. They resented, curators and museum directors they denied, they negotiated. Italy, Greece, Egypt, complain that cultural-property Finally, they came to terms. Turkey and China—homes laws prevent virtually anything Don’t think for a moment from being exported lawfully, this is a problem just for a few to the world’s ancient guaranteeing a continued black museums in the U.S. either. Last market even if museums don’t take fall Rutelli told Time that he civilizations—think of part in it. And they’re exasperated planned to turn next “to European by demands to return objects that institutions, starting with Denmark, antiquities as national entered their collections many as well as Japan and other parts of property, essential to years before the adoption of laws the world. And it goes for [Italy] that bar their export. too. We have returned hundreds of the construction of the Naturally, there’s a good stolen archaeological artifacts from measure of international payback Pakistan, Iran and Iraq.” modern nations’ identity. here. For source nations, the idea In this climate, the question of cultural property is a way to of ownership of the past has taken on a real edge. assert their sovereignty against those great powers that “Source nations” like Italy, Greece, Egypt, Turkey and once picked through their treasures. It’s also a defense China—homes to the world’s ancient civilizations— against the suction of the present-day free market, think of antiquities as national property, essential to which could easily vacuum up whatever the colonial the construction of the modern nations’ identity. Which powers haven’t carted away. in part they are. The problem is whether that idea can Museum professionals have counterarguments. Some accommodate the no less believable notion that the places—think of the Met, the Louvre or the National products of ancient civilizations are also the heritage Gallery in London—are “universal museums,” worth of all humanity. cherishing precisely because they permanently display Today it’s the source nations that have the whip hand. the works of many cultures side by side. Dimitrios Nearly all of them have so-called cultural-property Pandermalis knows all about the idea of the universal laws that lay claim to any ancient objects found in the museum. He doesn’t think much of it. “A translation of ground on their territory after a particular year—the the imperialism of the 19th century to the globalization
22 time, march 3, 2008 archaeology of the 20th century” is what he calls the concept, and his insists that Greece must first recognize, formally, that view counts. Pandermalis is president of the organization the marbles are its property. behind the New Acropolis Museum in Athens, conceived It isn’t just source nations like Greece that have it in as a standing rebuke to the British Museum’s continued for the museums. So do archaeologists, who complain possession of the most passionately disputed cultural that simply by providing a commercial market for property of them all, the 5th century B.C. Elgin Marbles. ancient objects, museums and private collectors Those are carvings taken from the Parthenon in the early encourage looters who vandalize archaeological digs, 19th century at the direction of Lord Elgin, who was then removing the artifacts from surroundings that hold British ambassador to the Ottoman Empire. Together the clues about the culture that made them. To most people, Elgins constitute roughly half of the surviving figures from a Mesopotamian cult figure or a Maya stela, before it’s the Parthenon. Most of the rest remain in Athens. anything else, is a work of art. To an archaeologist, The New Acropolis Museum is an ingenious part of it’s first a crucial piece of a much larger puzzle, the the Greeks’ lengthy campaign to retrieve the marbles. puzzle that is history itself. Site destruction—and the It will display the Greek portions of the Parthenon consequent loss of knowledge—is a cultural disaster for frieze side by side with pale plaster copies of the everyone. But is prohibiting almost any lawful export portions in London, like empty chairs at a banquet the best way to protect sites? table. Meanwhile, the Greeks have also proposed that Michael Kremer, a Harvard economics professor, and the British Museum might simply lend them the Elgin Tom Wilkening, a grad student at mit, have an idea for a Marbles for the official opening of the museum later possible solution. They published a paper last year sug- this year. There’s just one problem. The British Museum gesting that source countries might, in effect, “lease” their treasures to the museums of richer nations on a temporary basis while retaining title to them. The cash produced by such a scheme could be used to beef up site security. Meanwhile, Italy is demanding that the Getty Villa in Malibu, a museum devoted to the ancient Greeks, Etruscans and Romans, return one of the key works in its collection, an ancient Greek bronze, Victorious Youth. Stately and supple-looking, with his right hand upraised to place on his own brow a laurel wreath that disappeared long ago, he was discovered at sea by Italian fishermen in 1964 and purchased by the museum 13 years later for a reported $3.95 million. The Italians say the bronze was smuggled out of Italy. The Getty insists it was discovered in international waters before being taken to Italian soil. For good measure, the boy was never Italian to begin with. He was probably at sea, perhaps 2,000 years ago, because he was being carted away by the Romans from Greece. Has he found a permanent home at last? Perhaps, but it’s hard to look at his upraised hand without wondering if he’s getting ready to wave goodbye. π
Questions 1. Why are nations with ancient cultures insisting that their historical artifacts be returned to them? 2. What counterarguments are museum directors putting forth so that they can keep looted artifacts?
time, march 3, 2008 23 global warming Fight for the Top of the World As global warming melts the Arctic ice, dreams of a short sea passage to Asia—and of the vast riches that lie beneath the surface of the ice— have been revived. Who will win the world’s new Great Game?
By JAMES GRAFF warming has rendered the Arctic more accessible than ever—and yet at the t the end of august, a wisp same time more fragile—a new frenzy of flame suddenly appeared has broken out for control of the trade in the Arctic twilight over routes at the top of the world and the the Barents Sea, bathing the riches that nations hope and believe low clouds over the Norwe- may lie beneath the ice. Just as 150 Agian port of Hammerfest in a spectral years ago, when Russia and Britain orange glow. The first flare-off of fought for control of central Asia, it natural gas from the Snohvit (Snow is tempting to think that—not on the White in Norwegian) gas field, some steppe or dusty mountains but in the 90 miles offshore, was a beacon of icy wastes of the frozen north—a new promise: After 25 years of false Great Game is afoot. starts, planning and construction, the first Arctic industrial oil-and- Gas and Global Warming gas operation outside of Alaska was up and running. Russia is at the thick of the new game. In an expedition Norway’s state-owned petroleum firm Statoil could that lacked nothing in patriotic bluster, a Russian-led finally exploit once unreachable reserves, expected to team descended to the seabed on August 2 and planted a deliver an estimated $1.4 billion worth of liquefied titanium Russian flag directly on the North Pole. In early natural gas each year for the next 25 years. September, Russian bombers launched cruise missiles But in a place where the aurora borealis normally during Arctic exercises. But it isn’t only the Russians provides celestial beauty, Snow White’s luminous who are staking their claims. On August 10, Canadian apparition also signals caution. What will a new era of Prime Minister Stephen Harper flew to Resolute, a exploitation bring to the Arctic, one of the earth’s last hamlet of 250 souls on Cornwallis Island in the north- great uncharted regions? The vast area has long fascinated ern territory of Nunavut, and announced plans for explorers, but it has just as long been the site of folly and an Arctic military training facility and a refurbished exaggerated expectations. Over centuries, hundreds died deep-water port on the Northwest Passage. Then in the doomed search for an ice-free Northwest Passage Danish scientists set sail on an expedition to map the between Asia and Europe, many of them victims of ill- seabed north of Greenland, a Danish dependency, fated stabs at national and personal glory. and—not to be outdone—the U.S. Coast Guard dis- This summer, however, saw something new: for the patched the cutter Healy on a similar mission north of first time in recorded history, the Northwest Passage was Alaska. The flurry of activity has prompted the Senate ice-free all the way from the Pacific to the Atlantic. The Foreign Relations Committee to schedule hearings to Arctic ice cap’s loss through melting this year was 10 times push for U.S. ratification of the international treaty the recent annual average, amounting to an area greater on the Law of the Sea, which came into force in 1994. than that of Texas and New Mexico combined (see graphic Ratification of the treaty has long been opposed by con- on pages 26 and 27). The Arctic has never been immune servatives, who consider it a shackle on U.S. sovereignty, from politics; during the Cold War, U.S. and Soviet sub- but it now has the support of the Bush Administration, marines navigated its frigid waters. But now that global largely because its terms would allow Washington
24 time, october 1, 2007 global warming
to weigh in with its own claims in northern waters. fuels that are melting the northern ice. “The rush to The current interest in the Arctic, in short, is a perfect exploit Arctic resources can only perpetuate the vicious storm seeded with political opportunism, national pride, cycle of human-induced climate change,” says Mike military muscle flexing, high energy prices and the Townsley of Greenpeace International. specialized details of international law. But the tale begins with global warming, which is transforming Whose Ice Is It? the Arctic. The ice cap, which floats atop much of the With all the other Arctic nations making their plays, it Arctic Ocean, is at least 25% smaller than it was 30 years would be too much to expect the U.S.—an Arctic state ago. As the heat-reflecting ice that has made the Arctic itself, thanks to Alaska—to stand idly by. The Coast the most inaccessible and uncharted part of the earth Guard icebreaker now on its way back from plying turns into water—which absorbs heat—the shrinkage is the waters of the Chukchi Cap, north of the Bering accelerating faster than climate mod- Strait, has charted the sea floor with els ever predicted. On August 28, a multibeam echo sounder to delin- satellite images analyzed by the Uni- The ice cap, which eate where Alaska’s continental shelf versity of Colorado’s National Snow ends and the depths of the Arctic and Ice Data Center revealed that floats atop much of Ocean begin. But to press its case the Arctic ice cap was already 10% the Arctic Ocean, for extended territorial waters, as smaller than at its previous record the other Arctic nations are doing, minimum, in September 2005—and is at least the U.S. needs to sign the conven- it still had about a month of further tion. Some conservatives have always melting to go. “If that’s not a tipping 25% smaller than depicted the treaty as a no-win give- point, I’d hate to see what a tipping away of U.S. sovereignty that would point is,” says Mark Serreze, the cen- it was 30 years ago. cast the evil shadow of “world gov- ter’s senior research scientist. Trausti ernment” over the high seas and that Valsson, a professor of environmental planning at the might, for example, bar the U.S. from stopping ships University of Iceland in Reykjavik, says Arctic warming suspected of terrorist ties. has become a “self-propelling” process that could leave Given the Senate’s rules, opponents of the treaty the Arctic Ocean ice-free in summers by 2040. Even in have plenty of chances to use procedural dodges to kill winter, says Valsson, ice coverage would amount only it. But at hearings on the convention, Senate Foreign to what could form in a single season, meaning that Relations Committee chairman Joseph Biden will be “Arctic shipping, with specially built ships, will be easy able to muster support for ratification not only from in all areas during the whole year.” the Bush Administration and the military but also from While shippers will find it easy to adjust, the polar groups as different as the American Petroleum Insti- bears may not be able to. A recent study by the U.S. tute, whose members would like to exploit the Arctic, Geological Survey (usgs) predicts that shrinking sea and the World Wildlife Fund, whose supporters would ice will mean a two-thirds reduction in their popula- like to stop them from doing so. With such backing, tion by midcentury. Not even strict adherence to the supporters of the treaty are guardedly optimistic that Kyoto accord on limiting greenhouse gases would stop this time it will be ratified. The convention is “critical an Arctic meltdown, which means the Arctic, like no- to our national interests as a maritime power and as where else on Earth, is a place where efforts to mitigate the world’s leading economy,” Biden told Time. “Its global warming have yielded to full-bore adaptation to ratification is long overdue.” π its impact. That process is freighted with irony. With gas and oil prices near historic highs and with scant Questions prospect of any decrease in world demand for energy, 1. What happened last summer in the Artic for the it is only prudent to get a sense of what resources lie first time in recorded history? below the newly accessible sea. But there is something 2. Why is the shrinkage of Artic ice accelerating paradoxical about seeking in the Arctic the very carbon faster than climate models ever predicted?
time, october 1, 2007 25 global warming
Pacific Ocean REALIZING AN ANCIENT DREAM For centuries, explorers -jaÁ?Ý~ËÍjË ?¬±ËÄËÍjËWjË sought an ice-free route to Asia. A thawed Arctic means shippers could cut transportation time dramatically JAPAN s jÍÄ^ËWÖÍÁjÄËÁ?WjËÍË a n d I s l n Tokyo i a W?ˬÍjÍ?ËÁWjÄ u t Sea of Okhotsk l e New York City to Tokyo A via Northwest Passage
GOING, GOING ... GONE? The Arctic ice cap is shrinking 8,700 miles (14,000 km) faster than ever measured before and could disappear Treaty boundary New claim entirely by the middle of this century Countries have exclusive rights up Russia says it has geological evidence to 200 nautical miles (230 miles, to prove that this vast area, which New Minimum extent of Arctic sea ice: 370 km) from shore stretches all the way to the North Pole, Bering is part of its continental structure York Strait Tokyo City Wrangel SEPTEMBER 1982 Potential boundary Countries can claim up to Alaska Island 350 nautical miles (403 miles, Chukchi 648 km) if the area proves to be Sea a direct extension of the New continental shelf Siberian Islands Laptev Sea RUSSIA New York City to Tokyo Beaufort via Panama Canal e Sea g 11,300 miles (18,200 km) id R Severnaya Seattle v Zemlya o
s
o
n o CHINA SEPTEMBER 2005 om L NORTH Bathurst POLE Island London to Tokyo Ellesmere via Northeast Passage Island Resolute 8,100 miles (13,000 km) CANADA Franz Josef Novaya Land Zemlya Nanisivik New Canadian naval base London Tokyo GREENLAND Shtokman UNITED Area Baffin (Denmark) Oil and gas Bay disputed STATES Svalbard by Norway field (Norway) 2040 ESTIMATE Hudson East and Russia Ocean Depth Bay Baffin Greenland Barents Sea Feet Meters Island Rift Basin 0 0 Murmansk 4,000 Hammerfest Arkhangel’sk 2,000 8,000 Snohvit 12,000 Chicago 4,000 Gas field London to Tokyo and pipeline 16,000 via Suez Canal FINLAND 20,000 6,000 13,000 miles (20,900 km) SWEDEN
Sources: NOAA; USGS; NASA; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research; Moscow National Snow and Ice Data Center; U.S. Arctic Research Commission Ottawa Labrador Sea ICELAND NORWAY Helsinki TIME Graphic by Joe Lertola and Jackson Dykman Reykjavik Caspian Sea
26 time, october 1, 2007 071001060011 Tehran Copenhagen Kiev DENMARK Warsaw Black Sea Berlin global warming
Pacific Ocean REALIZING AN ANCIENT DREAM For centuries, explorers -jaÁ?Ý~ËÍjË ?¬±ËÄËÍjËWjË sought an ice-free route to Asia. A thawed Arctic means shippers could cut transportation time dramatically JAPAN s jÍÄ^ËWÖÍÁjÄËÁ?WjËÍË a n d I s l n Tokyo i a W?ˬÍjÍ?ËÁWjÄ u t Sea of Okhotsk l e New York City to Tokyo A via Northwest Passage
GOING, GOING ... GONE? The Arctic ice cap is shrinking 8,700 miles (14,000 km) faster than ever measured before and could disappear Treaty boundary New claim entirely by the middle of this century Countries have exclusive rights up Russia says it has geological evidence to 200 nautical miles (230 miles, to prove that this vast area, which New Minimum extent of Arctic sea ice: 370 km) from shore stretches all the way to the North Pole, Bering is part of its continental structure York Strait Tokyo City Wrangel SEPTEMBER 1982 Potential boundary Countries can claim up to Alaska Island 350 nautical miles (403 miles, Chukchi 648 km) if the area proves to be Sea a direct extension of the New continental shelf Siberian Islands Laptev Sea RUSSIA New York City to Tokyo Beaufort via Panama Canal e Sea g 11,300 miles (18,200 km) id R Severnaya Seattle v Zemlya o
s
o
n o CHINA SEPTEMBER 2005 om L NORTH Bathurst POLE Island London to Tokyo Ellesmere via Northeast Passage Island Resolute 8,100 miles (13,000 km) CANADA Franz Josef Novaya Land Zemlya Nanisivik New Canadian naval base London Tokyo GREENLAND Shtokman UNITED Area Baffin (Denmark) Oil and gas Bay disputed STATES Svalbard by Norway field (Norway) 2040 ESTIMATE Hudson East and Russia Ocean Depth Bay Baffin Greenland Barents Sea Feet Meters Island Rift Basin 0 0 Murmansk 4,000 Hammerfest Arkhangel’sk 2,000 8,000 Snohvit 12,000 Chicago 4,000 Gas field London to Tokyo and pipeline 16,000 via Suez Canal FINLAND 20,000 6,000 13,000 miles (20,900 km) SWEDEN
Sources: NOAA; USGS; NASA; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research; Moscow National Snow and Ice Data Center; U.S. Arctic Research Commission Ottawa Labrador Sea ICELAND NORWAY Helsinki TIME Graphic by Joe Lertola and Jackson Dykman Reykjavik Caspian Sea
time, october 1, 2007 27 071001060011 Tehran Copenhagen Kiev DENMARK Warsaw Black Sea Berlin Name Date worksheet- Interpreting Maps and Graphics The maps and graphics accompanying The Fire 6. What allows embers from wildfires to jump This Time on pages 14 to 17 and Fight for natural barriers such as rivers and valleys? the Top of the World on pages 24 to 27 are packed with information. But what does it all mean? Use the questions below to sharpen your skills in reading and interpreting graphics.
The Fire This Time 1. How do wildfires start?
Fight for the Top of the World 7. Countries can claim exclusive rights for how many nautical miles from their shoreline? 2. In the context of a wildfire, define “fuel.”
8. True or false: It is 2,600 fewer miles to travel from New York City to Tokyo by way of the 3. True or false: Wildfires slow down when they Northwest Passage. come to mountainsides.
9. Name three countries that border the Arctic. 4. What gives fire retardant an orange color?
10. What is the name of the gas field and pipeline 5. Why is Southern California so susceptible to owned by Norway? wildfires?
11. What country established Nanisivik Naval Base?
12. True or false: By the year 2040, there will be less than half the ice in the Arctic than there was in 2005.
28 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures middle east
the mob, balanced across the destroyed metal fence and then climbed through barbed-wire tangles. Femeh A Taste of Liberty was dying of a blood disease, and the only chance of recovery was rushing him to a Cairo hospital. The boy made it to Cairo; the family had friends who In Troubled Gaza led them along Bedouin trails across the Sinai desert, past the roadblocks of Egyptian police, whose orders A border wall with Egypt is breached, were to turn back any Palestinians fleeing Gaza. Others giving many Palestinians a brief taste of weren’t so lucky. Egyptian authorities stopped dozens life without the Israeli blockade of ailing Palestinians at the town of el-Arish because they lacked the proper visas. The patients remain there, By TIM MCGIRK camped in mosques and in the doorways of el-Arish, tended by relatives who are pleading with Egyptian riot mran lubbad lay sleepless in gaza early in police to let them pass. the morning of January 23. Lubbad, a darkly For most Gazans, though, shopping was the key. I handsome Palestinian, was going to be united saw a poor woman haggle over a single bulb of garlic A with Hiba, his fiancé in Egypt. He had treated as though it were a Manhattan town house. Goats and himself to a sharp new haircut. The pair have been camels, prized for their meat, were on many shopping engaged for two years, but Israel and Egypt sealed lists. So were commercial goods. On the Gaza side, an off the border with Gaza in early 2006, and Hiba was unemployed mason with nine kids was hoisting bags trapped on the other side. At last, Lubbad had scraped of cement off an Egyptian flatbed truck. The Israelis together $1,500 to smuggle her through a sandy tunnel had banned the import of cement, so all construction under the border fence. had stopped. But with the opening, the price of a sack It was a huge risk: tunnels at the Rafah of cement fell from $60 to $12, he told me, so crossing often cave in. At other times, he was happily back at work. Israel bombs the tunnels, which Hamas a A shopping spree may have lessened Se n Gaza militants use for smuggling weapons a Gaza’s crisis, but many say the long- e City n into Gaza. So when Lubbad’s cell a term solution rests with Israel. r phone rang at 5 a.m., he feared r GAZA Chris Gunness, a spokesman for e t i STRIP
the worst. But the news couldn’t d the United Nations Relief and have been better. “No need for the e Rafah Works Agency, which feeds as M ISRAEL tunnel or your money,” a friend told many as 850,000 impoverished him. “The wall is down. Exploded. Gazans, says, “A few holes in Now your fiancé can walk across. 6 miles the wall don’t relieve Israel of its Gaza is free.” EGYPT 6 km obligations. We can’t have a situation Free for now, that is. Gaza militants where Gaza continues to hover on did breach the wall—and Lubbad met up the brink of catastrophe.” Israel, for its with his fiancé, who returned with him to Gaza. But part, continues to blame Hamas—and the constant Egypt has begun repairing the holes in the wall, and threat of rocket attacks against Israeli civilians—for the wild exodus from Gaza, which included more than the blockade. π one-fifth of the territory’s 1.5 million people, was just a brief respite from life under Israel’s blockade, which had been tightened on January 17 in response to rocket Questions attacks from Gaza soil. 1. How many people left Gaza following the breach Still, the breach was a chance to complete all manner of the border wall? of desperate errands. A Gaza waiter named Maher 2. How does Israel explain its decision to enact the Sheikha carried his 12-year-old son Femeh through Gaza blockade?
time, february 11, 2008 29 society Is Facebook Overrated? The cool kid on the Web has everyone’s attention, but the social-networking site still needs profits to match its promise
By ANITA HAMILTON will make them, and their investors, unimaginably wealthy along the way. hether you realize it or not, social Founded by Harvard dropout Mark Zuckerberg, now networking is something you do every 23, Facebook was originally a way for college students day. Each time you tell a friend about a to keep tabs on who was dating whom. It has evolved good movie, bore a neighbor with pic- since then into a social network: an open book on its tures from a birthday party or catch up members’ lives, welcoming just about anyone. Won gossip at work, you are reaching out to people Facebook’s inclusiveness has broadened its popular you know to share ideas, expe- appeal, but the alchemy of the riences and information. The Web is converting eyeballs to genius of social-networking Nearly half the people dollars via the “click-throughs” websites such as MySpace and that advertisers crave—and the Facebook lies in their ability to who went online in the social nets are still searching for capture the essence of these in- U.S. in October visited the magic formula. Members of formal exchanges and distill them both Facebook and its chief rival, online into an expanding matrix of MySpace or Facebook, MySpace, spend on average about searchable, linked Web pages. 3 1/2 hours a month clicking Nearly half the people who making social around on each site, but they get went online in the U.S. in October so caught up in checking out their 2007—83 million, according networking one of the friends’ pages and updating their to the research firm comScore most popular activities own that they are less likely to click Media Metrix—visited MySpace through to the ads. What’s more, or Facebook, making social on the Web. Facebook may not be able to keep networking one of the most up the momentum of its rapid- popular activities on the Web. MySpace has the clear fire growth because social-networking aficionados are lead, with a U.S. audience of 72 million—more than notoriously fickle. Remember Friendster? twice that of Facebook’s—and 2007 profits estimated Social networks are a lot like nightclubs, and at $200 million. Friendster was the place to be in 2004 and 2005, Although Facebook is expected to earn just $30 before MySpace came along and stole its mojo. In short, million, the three-year-old site is getting all the buzz. Friendster got boring. One reason: Microsoft recently bought a mere 1.6% So Facebook and MySpace are trying to morph of the company for $240 million, an investment that from a place for flirting and gossip into one-stop values Facebook at $15 billion, which is in the ballpark entertainment destinations. “MySpace is your starting of Gap and Xerox. That’s far smaller than Google, valued point to the Internet,” says ceo Chris DeWolfe, who at about $200 billion, but both Facebook and MySpace recently rolled out features that let MySpace members think they are made of the same game-changing stuff. play casual games like online poker and watch mini- Like Google, they want to change the way you live and videos of TV shows from the 1980s like Fantasy Island work online. And like Google and practically everyone and Diff’rent Strokes. Facebook has gone even further. else on the Internet, they are betting that advertising In August it sent out an open invitation to software
30 time, december 3, 2007 society developers to devise new widgets. Three months later, Facebook, on the other hand, involves its members Facebook has some 7,000 free add-on applications that more intimately in the process. The site gives members let members do everything from monitor their stock the option of sending an update to their friends with portfolios to map anyplace they’ve ever visited to text every purchase they make online—an extension of the friends’ phones via the site. news feed that tracks all the other things Facebook Every one of those applications represents one members do. If you choose to tell your friends about more aspect of your life that can live on Facebook, the dvd box set you just bought online, for example, and the more you can do there, the more important your friends will also get a small ad right beneath and valuable the site becomes. (And, as MySpace that update. Advertisers can specify, on the basis of recently discovered, the more tempting it is to hackers.) demographic data selected from a user’s profile, exactly Search engines help you find things, but everything which members they want to view the ad. they choose from is public. A social network affords All of this has the creepy prospect of turning your something more: access to the personal lives and life into one big direct-mail campaign. But Facebook’s tastes of the people in your circle, or at least as much Zuckerberg sees the new model as just another form of as they’re willing to share. For that reason, explains word-of-mouth. “Nothing influences people more than a Chamath Palihapitiya, Facebook’s vice president of recommendation from a friend,” he says. To allay privacy product marketing, “I see Facebook as becoming more concerns, Facebook makes sharing your shopping habits essential than search.” optional, but it’s betting that for the bare-it-all generation Will advertisers see it that way too? In early growing up on social networks, broadcasting what you November, both Facebook and MySpace announced buy will seem as natural as posting the details of a bitter new schemes that would allow advertisers to more breakup—or what you ate for breakfast. closely target messages. The idea is that if ads are But is Facebook really worth $15 billion? If it goes made more relevant, more people will click on them, public sometime next year, as is widely expected, which in turn will boost the fees the sites can charge for potential investors need to ask, “How big can Facebook them. MySpace’s new “hypertargeting” strategy scans grow?” says Internet analyst Bob Peck of Bear Stearns, profile pages for keywords and sells ads against them. who pegged Facebook’s value at $6 billion in August. If you say you love burritos, for example, a banner ad “You want to buy low expectations,” says David Trainer, for Mexican food might appear at the top of your page. president of the business-valuation firm New Constructs. Google went public amid widespread skepticism, but Facebook has been anointed by its boosters as the next Google, despite MySpace’s bigger audience and deeper pockets. As is always the case with the Web, some investors are going to make epic amounts of money. Others won’t. π
Questions 1. How does Facebook make most of its money? 2. What new plan has Facebook devised to target advertising more effectively to its members?
time, december 3, 2007 31 sports
undergo it, used to be limited to players in their 20s and Young Athletes, older, but it is now performed on kids as young as 12— not surprising if they started pitching excessively at age 8 or 9. Similarly, stress fractures in the backs of middle- Big Injuries school football and soccer players have nearly doubled over the past decade as a result of overtraining. Kids suffer when coaches and parents pile No one is saying that kids shouldn’t play sports or even on too much training. Here’s why that they shouldn’t train. But “you shouldn’t be training a 9- to-12-year-old to be a superstar,” says Dr. Michael By KATE STICHFIELD Bergeron of the Medical College of Georgia. “You should be thinking down the road so they can be that superstar at t ought to be hard to take the fun out of 18.” That’s what some training centers are now aiming to play, but if you’re an overambitious parent or coach do. At BlueStreak Sports Training in Connecticut, coaches with a young athlete in your charge, you may have assess each athlete’s risk for knee injury, paying particular Imanaged to do it. Weekly sessions of intensive attention to girls, who are six times as likely as boys to muscle-strengthening, grueling push-up regimens and injure their knees for a number of reasons, including long intervals on fast-paced treadmills are becoming basic anatomy, muscle strength and hormonal differences. common for grade-school kids. Elite training centers The most vulnerable athletes are then required to wear a that promise to give young athletes bracelet while training as a warning an edge during the off-season have to coaches to take it slow. been popping up since 2000, ≤You shouldn’t be training But the biggest adjustment especially in affluent sections of a 9- to 12-year-old to be will have to be a psychological New England and the Midwest. a superstar. You should be one: persuading coaches with To sports-medicine professionals, unrealistic performance standards that’s a worrying trend. Hard-core thinking down the road.≥ and parents with the means to training can do kids more harm —Dr. Michael Bergeron pay an average of $900 for a six- than good—particularly if they’re week training session that they under 12. As more children are pushed beyond their must back off and put the health of the child first. physical limits, sports injuries once reserved largely for “Sports used to be this wonderful even playing field,” the pros are turning up among young athletes. says Regan McMahon, a writer for the San Francisco A young body that’s worked too hard can suffer in a Chronicle who has covered the professionalization of lot of ways, but it’s the bones that take the worst pound- youth sports. “Now it’s the rich kids who make the ing. Activities like skating uphill on a Plexiglas surface, team. It’s the upper-middle-class parents who can which allows skaters to strengthen their strides, or doing afford all of these supplemental programs.” the explosive muscle-building movements known as In fairness to the grownups, the kids themselves need plyometrics can wreak havoc on the skeletal system, to relax too. “I’m a kid who stays focused and works hard,” particularly the epiphyseal plate, or growth plate, which says Connor Humphrey, an earnest 14-year-old football is essential in bone development—a process that is not and lacrosse player in New Canaan, Connecticut. “I have complete until the late teens. goals for the future. I want to play lacrosse at Duke.” That Harming a plate can affect the way the bones grow. dream is commendable, but while pushing young bodies “I saw one kid who was asked to do multiple plyometric to the limit may mean more time in the game, it can just jumps through the pain, and he pulled a growth plate off as easily mean a lifetime on the bench. π his knee,” says Dr. Jordan Metzl of the American College of Sports Medicine’s youth sports committee. Questions There are other problems as well. Tommy John 1. What kinds of training can harm growth plates? ligament surgery, an elbow procedure named after 2. How has overtraining affected the number of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher who was the first to stress fractures among middle-school athletes?
32 time, december 10, 2007 sports Sparking a Protest China’s crackdown on dissent has led activists to protest the running of the Olympic torch
By DAVID VON DREHLE
he traditional global relay carrying the Olympic torch to the site of the Games is supposed to convey the inextinguishable vigor of the Olym- T pic spirit. But the Chinese are finding it instead a symbolic disaster. The running of the torch in London in early April was marred by attempts by human rights protesters to extinguish its fire. In Paris the ceremony became an outright farce: security officials doused the flame twice in the face of demonstrations to block its prog- that was to wrap up with concerts in the evening. Activists ress, and wound up driving it to the end-of-day handoff in Paris, like their peers in London the previous day, ceremony at Charléty Stadium on the edge of the city turned an event intended to highlight China’s growing when the tormented relay was canceled at mid-course. political and economic skill into a police-harnessed As the torch moves on to San Francisco and Buenos Aires reflection of how China treats dissent. before heading back to Africa and Asia, the organiz- “The Chinese have made sure that for a few hours, ers of this summer’s Beijing Games are facing a grim Paris will look like Tiananmen Square,” noted Robert prospect: that the protests denouncing China’s human Menard, head of the Reporters Without Frontiers rights record in Tibet and elsewhere could mount as the group, before the Paris protests he helped organize. “I torch continues its 85,000-mile, 20-nation voyage. think it’s shameful.” More than 3,000 French police and security forces The raucous London and Paris legs appear to have formed what was touted as a “hermetic bubble” to surprised Chinese officials. French popular concern protect torch carriers from any intrusion, but the relay over human rights conditions in China took root only came under immediate pressure from well-organized following the brutal suppression of unrest in Tibet last protesters. Just minutes after the 17-mile relay began month. Images of that violence prepared the ground for at the Eiffel Tower, demonstrators carrying Tibetan groups like Reporters Without Frontiers, which have flags and chanting anti-Chinese slogans moved in so called on the French government to use the Beijing tightly around the torch that officials took it into a bus Games as a lever to pressure China to increase civil for protection. Its flame was ultimately extinguished at liberties and press freedom. It was in the wake of that least twice for what French officials called “technical spreading disquiet in France that President Nicolas reasons.” Efforts by police to back activists away from Sarkozy became the first Western leader to suggest he the Olympic cortege at times became violent, as did might consider a boycott of the opening ceremonies clashes between protesters and pro-China spectators. An to protest China’s stance on human rights and Tibet. unknown number of people were arrested for disrupting The Beijing Olympic torch show, it seems, is only just the Paris relay; 37 were taken into custody on similar heating up. π charges in London. The relay was eventually cut short, as the flame couldn’t Questions hold up against the determination of the demonstrators 1. Why are activists protesting the running of the drawn to it. Hundreds of other activists gathered at the Olympic torch? Trocadero esplanade across from the Eiffel Tower to show 2. Who is the first Western leader to state that his their support for the Tibetan people during a day of events country might boycott the Beijing Olympics?
time, april 7, 2008 33 business Bracing for a Recession Consumers drive the U.S. economy. But we’re maxed out on our debt, and strapped banks will pinch lending. That could spell recession
By JUSTIN FOX housing market, the changeable stock market, oil prices, the weak dollar and lots of nervous investors in far-off t’s the day after thanksgiving at aventura lands. All of which relate back to the financial condition Mall, north of Miami, and David Weinberg of the people swarming the nation’s malls. is worrying about the economy. “People are Since the early 1980s, with the exception of that brief underestimating the downturn in the housing downturn during the recession of 1990-91, consumer market in Florida and are spending based on home spending in the U.S. has risen every quarter. Over that Iequity,” says the accountant from nearby Pembroke period, our pocketbooks have come to commandeer Pines, Florida. “We have not seen an ever greater portion of the the worst of it yet.” In light of these economy, from 62% of gross looming troubles, Weinberg, at the ≤I see the risk domestic product (gdp) in 1981 mall with his wife and two young to 70% now. Spending by U.S. kids, says he’d like to rein in his of a credit crunch consumers accounts for 19% of family’s spending. “But,” he adds, leading to a global economic activity. “I’m not always in control.” This activity has been increas- Meet today’s American generalized meltdown ingly fueled by debt. In 1983 house- consumer. Sure, he’s worried. hold debt equaled 55% of income in Apart from a brief blip after of the financial the U.S.; now it’s above 114% (and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the system.≥ above 136% of after-tax disposable University of Michigan’s much income). The middle class—house- watched Index of Consumer —Nouriel Roubini, holds earning roughly between Sentiment hasn’t been this low Economics Professor at $20,000 and $100,000 annually— since 1992. But buying stuff is New York University had a debt-to-income ratio of 141% what we Americans do. The last in 2004, according to New York outright decline in consumer spending came in 1991, University (nyu) economist Edward Wolff. And he figures and that was shallow and short-lived. it’s even higher today. In the third quarter of 2005, the Short-term retail optimism brings no cheer to the national savings rate (personal income minus spending) economy’s wise men, who talk mainly of an imminent went negative for the first time since the Great Depres- downturn. “The odds now favor a U.S. recession,” writes sion, and it has bounced back only slightly since. former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers in a newspaper It’s not necessarily a bad thing to borrow money, and column. “I’d put the number at about a 75% chance,” says it’s hard to say what the right debt ratio or savings rate investing guru Jack Bogle on tv. “We are becoming more might be. But Americans can’t keep running up bigger certain that the recession is either here or no more than and bigger debts forever. At some point we have to pay two quarters away,” warns Merrill Lynch economist David them back or default. Rosenberg in a note to clients. Worrywarts have been saying such things since the Talk is cheap, and economists and laymen alike have a mid-1980s without much to show for it. But something strikingly poor record of predicting recessions. But there changed after 2001, when what had been a long and are good reasons to be concerned that the economy is in retrospect moderate rise in indebtedness exploded weakening. They involve struggling banks, the collapsing into a spectacular binge in mortgage and home-equity
34 time, december 10, 2007 business
brokerages are taking huge write-downs tied to the AMERICAN 150% mortgage-backed instruments that kept the Ponzi- 136.5% CONSUMERS loan machine oiled. Economists are furiously debating HAVE BEEN 130 whether we’re on the brink of a full-fledged “Minsky BORROWING moment,” in which lending shrinks sharply across the MORE ... 110 board. Nouriel Roubini, an nyu economist and a widely Household read forecaster, got a lot of attention in November by 90 debt as a professing to see risk of “generalized meltdown of the percentage financial system of a severity and magnitude like we of disposable 70 income have never observed before.” That sounds bad. But even 50 if the damage is restricted to U.S. mortgage markets, a ’70 ’80 ’90 ’00 $2 trillion reduction in the supply of loans could still result, estimates Goldman Sachs economist ... TO SPEND 75% Jan Hatzius. MORE 70.3% That’s about 14% of gdp, more than enough to bring Consumer 70 on a recession—semiofficially defined by the National spending as Bureau of Economic Research as “a significant decline a percentage of GDP 65 in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” Will it, though? The equation 60 must factor in global demand for U.S. exports, the path of the dollar, the price of oil and other influences that make it more or less impossible to solve. What seems 55 ’70 ’80 ’90 ’00 clear is that the borrow-and-spend era has come to an end, or at the very least a prolonged pause. π Sources: Federal Reserve; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Questions lending. It started with super-low interest rates that kept 1. What are some of the reasons economists think the consumer spending rising even as the tech boom of the U.S. might be entering a recession? late 1990s collapsed. But before long, the mortgage boom 2. What percentage of the world’s economic activity took on a life of its own, with ever bigger and weirder does spending by the U.S. account for? loans handed out to people who would be able to pay them back only if they won the lottery or the price of their house kept rising. Hyman Minsky, an academic economist who died in relative obscurity in 1996 but is now the talk of Wall Street, had a colorful phrase to describe such people: “Ponzi borrowers,” he called them, after the early 20th century pyramid-scheme perpetrator Charles Ponzi. Minsky argued that once banks got so sloppy that they handed out Ponzi loans, a financial crisis was inevitable. Sure enough, house prices stopped rising in 2006, and now banks and
time, december 10, 2007 35 Name Date worksheet- ____ 6. A recent study found that as Current Events In Review average temperatures have risen in the western U.S., so too has the length of the Test your knowledge of stories covered in wildfire season as well as: the Current Events Update by answering the a. the number of states wildfires occur in following multiple-choice questions. b. the size and duration of the average wildfire ____ 1. The percentage of U.S. household debt c. temperature of the average wildfire compared to average income is: d. the number of deaths from wildfires a. 57% b. 75% c. 96% d. 114% ____ 7. The average number of hours per month that Facebook and MySpace members spend on the sites is: ____ 2. The presidential candidate who won the a. 3.5 b. 8 c. 15.5 d. 24 Democratic caucuses in Iowa is: a. Hillary Clinton c. John Edwards ____ 8. The state whose population has more than b. Joseph Biden d. Barack Obama tripled since 1950 is: a. Texas b. California c. New York d. Alaska ____ 3. The U.S. President who had served as a general during World War II but who had no ____ 9. The organization founded as a result political experience when elected was: of Walter Mondale’s losing 1984 presidential a. Harry S Truman c. Dwight Eisenhower campaign is: b. Richard Nixon d. Lyndon Johnson a. Centrist Democrats for America b. The Democratic National Committee ____ 4. Yum Brands was spun off from: c. The Democratic Leadership Council a. Coca-Cola c. PepsiCo d. The ACLU b. Kentucky Fried Chicken d. Nestle ____ 10. The most public proponent of the war in ____ 5. The percentage of U.S. fourth-graders Iraq, outside the White House, is: who can’t read at a basic level is: a. John McCain c. Barack Obama a. 25% b. 38% c. 45% d. 52% b. Hillary Clinton d. Al Gore
Match each of the locations below ____ 1 1. Economically booming nation where a Kentucky Fried with the description at right. Write Chicken restaurant opened every day last year. the letter of the correct country in ____ 12 . The Snohvit natural gas field is being developed by the space provided. (Note: Not all this nation. answers will be used.) ____ 13 . Country whose former fundamentalist government A. Afghanistan outlawed education for girls. B. Canada ____ 14 . An expedition from this nation descended to the seabed in C. China August 2007 and planted a titanium flag on the North Pole. D. Cuba ____ 15 . This country’s cultural minister has demanded the return of E. Egypt dozens of objects held by museums in the U.S. and abroad. F. Greece ____ 16 . Nation that sealed off its border with Gaza in 2006. G. Italy ____ 17 . Country whose invasion caused a crisis early in John F. H. Norway Kennedy’s presidency. I. Russia ____ 18. Suppression of unrest here has led to calls for a boycott of J. Singapore the upcoming Olympics. K. Tibet ____ 19 . Stephen Harper is the Prime Minister of this nation. L. United States ____ 20 . Home nation of the new Acropolis Museum.
36 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures supporter of the Bush Administration’s 4. Iron oxide Answers “surge” policy. 5. It has unusually strong seasonal winds 5. Clinton: Yes; McCain: Yes; Obama: Yes that roar through mountains and valleys Does Experience Matter in a 6. Answers will vary depending on issue packed with homes. President? (pages 2 and 3) selected. 6. Because wildfires intensify winds, burning 1. The next President will inherit a range of embers can be blown up to half a mile. major problems, including the war in Iraq, A Time to Serve 7. 200 the stumbling economy, competition from (pages 11–13) 8. True China, the health-care mess, and global 1. Voting and paying taxes. 9. The U.S., Canada, Russia, Norway, warming. 2. They think the government and public Greenland (Denmark) 2. Many Presidents with extensive sphere are broken but feel they can 10. Snohvit experience have had failed or weak personally make a difference through 11. Canada presidencies; Richard Nixon is one example. community service. 12. True Some people argue that character and judgment are more important traits in a The Fire This Time A Taste of Liberty in Troubled Gaza President than experience. (pages 14–17) (page 29) 1. If a fire breaks out, the winds become a 1. At least 300,000 people—equivalent to Changing the Script flamethrower, spreading burning embers more than a fifth of Gaza’s population of (pages 4 and 5) half a mile or more. 1.5 million—left following the breach in the 1. By moving away from traditional 2. Putting out small fires raises the risk of border wall. Republican policies and focusing on issues megafires since the forests are not permitted 2. Israel says the blockade is necessary as ranging from global warming to the cheap to do their important work of occasionally a response to Hamas, and to guard against importation of prescription drugs. clearing out accumulated vegetation. rocket attacks on Israeli civilians. 2. The war in Iraq. The Girl Gap (pages 18 and 19) Is Facebook Overrated? He’s Got Game 1. A higher rate of education for women (pages 30 and 31) (pages 6 and 7) correlates with better overall health, a 1. Advertising revenue. 1. Pundits urged Obama to “get down, get more functional democracy and increased 2. The site gives members the option of dirty, get tough.” But Obama refused to economic performance. sending an update to their friends with follow this advice or to engage in personal 2. Most Afghan families won’t allow their every purchase they make online. attacks on his opponents. daughters to be where they may be seen by 2. Character, judgment and vision. men, so many parents forbid their girls from Young Athletes, Big Injuries attending schools in the open or in tents (page 32) Ready To Rumble 1. Activities such as skating uphill on a (pages 8 and 9) When Eat Meets West Plexiglas surface or doing the muscle- 1. Superdelegates are the roughly 800 (pages 20 and 21) building movements known as plyometrics Democratic Party leaders and elected 1. Their wealth is swelling and their time is can harm growth plates; this, in turn, can officials who are automatically delegates shrinking. affect the way bones grow. to the party convention this summer in 2. It’s mostly high-calorie food for a thin 2. Over the past decade, stress fractures Denver. They are free to support whichever population, which causes people to go from in the backs of middle-school football and candidate they wish. Since neither Clinton small to large very quickly and begin to soccer players have nearly doubled due to nor Obama is likely to finish the primary develop signs of heart disease, diabetes and overtraining. season with the 2,025 delegates needed to high blood pressure at much lower weights. win the nomination, superdelegates are Sparking a Protest (page 33) expected to play a key role in determining Who Owns History? 1. Human rights groups are protesting the nominee. (pages 22 and 23) the running of the Olympic torch to draw 2. Clinton’s core constituencies include 1. They think of antiquities as national attention to China’s brutal suppression women, older voters, Hispanics and property, essential to the construction of the of unrest in Tibet. The protesters hope to households earning under $50,000. modern nations’ identity. pressure China to increase civil liberties 2. Some museum directors think of their and freedom of the press. Analyzing the Issues institutions as “universal museums” that dis- 2. Nicolas Sarkozy (page 10) play the works of many cultures side by side. 1. Answers will vary. Bracing for a Recession 2. Both Clinton and Obama want insurers to Fight for the Top of the World (pages 34 and 35) offer health insurance that matches the gen- (pages 24–27) 1. Record levels of consumer debt, erous level of coverage available to members 1. The Northwest Passage was ice-free all the struggling banks, the collapsing housing of Congress. Clinton wants universal cover- way from the Pacific to the Atlantic. market, the volatile stock market, oil prices, age for all Americans with individual man- 2. Ice reflects heat, while water absorbs the weak dollar and lots of nervous investors dates; Obama calls for universal coverage heat. So the more ice that turns into water, in far-off lands. of children with decreased costs. McCain the faster the process of melting becomes. 2. 19% favors shifting more control over health in- surance and healthcare decisions to patients Interpreting Maps and Graphics (page rather than expanding the government role. 28) Current Events in Review 3. Clinton: Yes; Obama: No; McCain: Yes 1. From a confluence of fuel, dryness and (page 36) 4. Both Clinton and Obama want to end some kind of trigger. 1. d 2. d 3. c 4. c 5. b 6. b 7. a the war and bring troops home within 12 2. Fuel means flammable solids—such as 8. b 9. c 10. a 11. C 12. H 13. A to 16 months. McCain has not set a date for wood or grass—and oxygen. 14. I 15. G 16. E 17. D 18. K withdrawal of troops and has been a strong 3. False 19 . B 20. F
37